Archive for the ‘NFL Previews’ Category

2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Seattle Seahawks

INDEX

Mike Holmgren - Head Coach, 8th season with SEA
Gil Haskell - Offensive Coordinator, 7th season with SEA

Mike Holmgren has coached in 224 regular season NFL games, and 20 more postseason contests. In 14 seasons, he’s finished a year with a losing record just twice. And his career playoff tally is 11-9. Based on his consistent record of winning, and the youthful approach this Seattle team takes the field with, I have little concern about the Seahawks dropping off into a Super Bowl slump, as the Eagles, Panthers, and Raiders have all done.

In this his 8th season in Seattle - Holmgren spent 7 in Green Bay and it’s hard to now believe he’s been in SEA longer - the Seahawks have what can only be considered as the top offense in the NFC. It took the Walrus three years to get it turned around in Washington, as his offenses ranked 24th, 20th, and 21st in those first three seasons of 1999, 2000, and 2001. But then in 2002, Matt Hasselback began to put it together and led the ‘Hawks to a 6th place finish in total yards. They finished 5th in 2003, 9th in 2004, and 2nd last season.

Shawn Alexander set career highs last year in carries, yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns. Oddly enough, he had his lowest production catching the football since his rookie season. There’s no way he scores 27 TDs again. Alexander’s career TD total went from 14 to 16 to 14 to 16 and then to 27. I’d prepare for another 14. His career ypc average is a very nice 4.6, but Alexander has seen his carry total increase dramatically over the last four years: 295, 326, 353, and 370. That’s usually a huge indicator for trouble. I’m not questioning his toughness or desire, but there’s just a natural course in these trends that we see over and over again. Lots of carries, plus a big paycheck, plus a short offseason, plus changes on the offensive line, it all equals disappointment. Oh and I just remembered one other thing, the Madden ‘07 cover.

One guy I do like to have a good season is Nate Burleson. He’s the perfect receiver for this offense. Big, but not huge. Good speed, but not fast. Nice hands, great routes, and a solid understanding of the game. Burleson is also a great run after catch receiver, which is what the old west cost offense was all about.

The best season any Seahawks WR has had under Holmgren was Darrell Jackson in 2004 (87-1199-7). But back in Green Bay, Sterling Sharpe had back to back 100 catch 10+ TD seasons with Walrus and an even better comparison, Antonio Freeman, put up 81-1243-12 in 1997. I think Burleson’s 2006 season may fall in the area of 85-1300-10 and if it does, those are top 5 fantasy WR numbers. Working against him are two things: 1) the reputation he earned in Minnesota for not being a true #1 and 2) this being his first year in a new offense. I personally think he can be a #1a in this kind of offense, lining up opposite DJackson, but the new offense issue is a concern. On the bright side of that argument, both Nate and his QB have been working together all offseason.

Since I see the Seahawks passing a little more this season, I think Matt Hasselback is in for another good year. He had his best season to date last year, finishing with just 9 INTs and a completion % of 65.5, but his yards were low at 3455. With four solid receivers this season, plus Stevens and Mili at TE, I see Matt getting back to near 4000, especially if Burleson breaks out like I think he may.

2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - St. Louis Rams

INDEX

Scott Linehan - Head Coach, 1st season with STL
Gregg Olson - Offensive Coordinator, 1st season with STL

Scott Linehan’s official Rams’ bio leads with two paragraphs that best describe what he helped do with the Miami Dolphins’ offense last season.

Under Linehan, the Dolphins went from 29th in the NFL in total offense in 2004 to 14th in 2005, which includes going from 31st in rushing to 12th. The Dolphins’ finished the season with six consecutive victories, improving their scoring from 16.2 points per game in the first 10 games, to 26.0 during the season-ending streak.

In 2005, the Dolphins’ offense had 26 plays of 25 or more yards, including seven pass plays of more than 50 yards, which tied for the NFL lead. The Miami offensive line also blocked for the running game to average 4.3 yards per carry, good for fourth in the AFC and eighth in the NFL. The line also allowed only 26 sacks, which tied for the fourth-lowest total in the NFL.

In fact, the Rams did such a great job at writing Linehan’s bio, there’s really no need for me to go back and provide stats to show just how good of an offensive coordinator he was. Okay, one more quote:

Linehan’s first NFL season was 2002, as he directed the Vikings to become the second-ranked offense in the NFL, leading the league in rushing. Prior to his arrival in Minnesota, the Vikings scored 290 points in 2001. With Linehan, the Vikings scored 390 in 2002, 416 in 2003, and 405 in 2004.

So that’s Scott Linehan. Who’s Gregg Olson? During the last two seasons, he was the quarterbacks coach for the Detroit Lions. That may sound a little oxymoronic, but the Rams’ official site again did their research: “Under Olson’s tutelage in Detroit, Joey Harrington had his two best seasons in terms of completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and passer rating of his career.” Olson was also the QB coach in San Francisco in 2001 when the 49ers went 12-4 and Jeff Garcia went to the pro bowl. Olson has worked with Linehan before, from 1994-96 at Idaho.

If Linehan brings the same kind of offense to St Louis that he brought to Minnesota and Miami (and there’s no reason to suspect he won’t), the team will be just balanced enough to favor what they do best. The Rams will still have a vertical, down the field attack this season, but the long awaited arrival of ‘balance’ should finally check in. Linehan knows the value of the run. In his four seasons as an OC, his offenses have run the ball 444 times (last year), 387 times (2004), 493 (2003), and 473 times (2002). Ranked among all NFL teams, those numbers turn into 17th, 28th, 7th, and 8th. It should be noted that the low numbers during the 2004 season took place when the Vikings lost just about every running back they had to injury at some point and the team admittedly got too pass happy. I think Linehan learned a lot during that 8-8 season and he won’t again fall victim to the Mike Martz illness.

Aside from speculating about run/pass ratios, there is talk coming out of St. Louis camp that the offense the Rams will run this season will be more simplifed (but not simple), more player friendly, and more quarterback friendly. Martz was well known for his distaste for audibles, but Marc Bulger will have more flexibility this season. His numbers will climb back up to 2004 levels (4000 yards, 20 TDs).

With Marshall Faulk out, Steven Jackson will be a top 10 running back if he can stay healthy enough to play in at least 13 games.

Jackson, who had arthroscopic knee surgery after his final season at Oregon State and following his rookie year with the Rams, said, “First time in three years I actually had an offseason. I feel pretty good now.”

Jackson comes into the season with a career 4.4 yards per carry average. He only had 20 or more carries in a game 3 times last season (all Rams wins) and averaged 5.5 ypc in those three games. In two other games, he carried the ball 19 times and had only 3.2 and 3.5 ypc in those contests, so the key to success isn’t just the amount of carries, but instead the consistency. In Miami last year, both Williams and Brown averaged 4.4 ypc, so that seems to be a pretty accurate prediction for Jackson this season. Give him 320 attempts and you get 1400 yards and at least 10 TDs. Just make sure you get Tony Fisher too.

Linehan is used to having a featured receiver in his offense, so Torry Holt’s numbers shouldn’t fall off too much with the change in systems. Issac Bruce is nearing the end of the line and this article certainly makes it sound like he’s role this season is more mentor than playmaker. Kevin Curtis, Shaun McDonald, and Dane Looker are all good receivers, so I expect Holt to catch around the 100 balls he’s used to catching, and Curtis, Bruce, McDonald to each be in the 40-50 catch range.

The Rams also drafted a couple of tight ends who will make an impact on the field, but probably not on the fantasy football scene just yet.

One other important note that will make this offense better is the addition of a few free agents on the defensive side of the ball. St Louis signed DT La’Roi Glover, LB Will Witherspoon, and defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. Their improvement from 30th last season will result in a more balanced attack as well.

2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Arizona Cardinals

INDEX

Keith Rowen - Offensive Coordinator, 2nd season with ARZ
Dennis Green - Head Coach, 3rd season with ARZ

First off, there’s currently a big sign on the front page of the Arizona Cardinals’ web site that says, “2006 Season Tickets Sold Out! - Join the Waiting List Now!” There’s a waiting list, in Arizona.

Keith Rowen is in his second year with the Cardinals, and with the large number of returning players on this Arizona offense, the Cardinals pass the first requirement needed for a strong offensive season. Rowen was the TE’s coach at KC for six seasons, the OL coach in Oakland for two seasons before that, and the OL coach under Dennis Green in Minnesota from ‘94-’96. Rowen has coached for 31 years and also holds a master’s degree from Stanford and a doctorate in athletic administration from USC; so this is a very smart guy who’s been around the game all his life.

The Cardinals finished 1st in the league last season in completions, attempts, and passing yards. As a result, they finished last in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, and rushing touchdowns (just 2!). Despite their troubles on the ground, Arizona’s offense was still 7th best in the NFL in yards.

The biggest offseason move they made is probably not Edgerrin James, but the signing of offensive line coach Steve Loney; who comes from Minnesota’s 2002-2005 teams. Loney struggled as the Vikings’ offensive coordinator early last season in working with Daunte Culpepper, but they turned things around and his work as offensive line coach in Minnesota over the previous three seasons speaks for itself.

Loney’s addition is much needed. The Cardinals’ OL last season was just terrible:

The Cardinals lost yardage on about 13 percent of their running plays. Another 12 percent went for no gain, meaning they failed to gain a yard on about 25 percent of their runs.

That article goes on to describe a number of reasons why the line struggled so much, and from what I see, it was mostly mental issues. The talent is there to at least do a serviceable job. Loney has a reputation as a good teacher, so as the Cards start their third straight season with a new OL coach, Loney may just provide the charm Arizona has needed. One thing is certain about this offensive line: they will be huge. Between the 7 names that are expected to start, they average 331 pounds each.

So what should we expect this 2006 Cardinals offense to do? Well, obviously, they’re not going to throw the ball as much as they did last season. Any team who runs the ball just 360 times is a disgrace. In 2004 with Emmitt Smith, the Cards ran 475 times (11th best), and over Green’s 10 years in Minnesota, his Vikings averaged 435.4 rushing attempts per season; which is about average.

Edgerrin James has played 96 career regular season games, and has averaged 365 attempts per 16 games over his career. His career yards per carry average is 4.2 (only his post ACL injury season 3.6 number ruins a very consistent string of 4.2-4.6 averages).

There’s been notice that both the Colts and the Cardinals run their offense out of similar formations.

“There is a giant correlation,” Cardinals offensive coordinator Keith Rowen said. “A lot of runs Edge did well in Indy are in our offense.”


During Green’s 10 years in Minnesota, his running backs averaged 435.6 att, 1797.6 yards, 12.3 tds a season. One interesting note is that even in good years, Green’s RBs don’t seem to run for many TDs. I’d say 12 is a realistic maximum to expect.

If there’s been a knock on James over the past few seasons, it’s been his inside running during short yardage situations (goalline/3rd down). Backup J.J. Arrington also has a similar reputation, so I wouldn’t be surprised if fourth year veteran Marcel Shipp takes from James’ already low projected TD total. I was disappointed last year when Arrington was drafted by the Cardinals. This is not the kind of offense he needs to be in (west coast style). Hopefully, Arrington will get traded to a team that better suits his talents. At least he’s keeping a good attitude.

But back to sum James up, based on all the career stats on hand, I’d expect James to run 350-370 times for around 1500 yards and maybe 10 TDs if everything goes right for him. Personally, I’m not too excited about his fantasy value in Arizona - and not because of questions about the OL. I think the blocking will at least be adequate, but in a league that rewards scoring, James is no longer the kind of runner that gets into the end zone. And with the receiving options this team has, coupled with Green’s history of throwing his way into the end zone, I’d expect the offense to score points through the air.

Both Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin caught 100 passes for just over 1400 yards last season. It’s hard to believe they’ll both duplicate those numbers again this year. Fitzgerald is a down field threat because of his size and body control, Boldin is more of a run after catch guy because of his size and quickness. If anyone’s numbers are going to decline this season, I’d guess it would be Boldin’s. One, he’s more injury prone. And two, I think Fitzgerald is going to put up 1300+ yards and 10 TDs for at least the next 7 seasons. I think Fitzgerald is a lock to produce Torry Holt type numbers for maybe even the next decade. Both Boldin and Fitzgerald will come into the season overrated in fantasy terms, but Fitzgerald is probably worth his draft value.

The tightend position is a three way race, with Eric Edwards, Adam Bergen, and rookie Leonard Pope all possessing skills to be a good receiver, but all three also struggle in the blocking game at times. I think they’ll be a lot of time sharing going on at this position in 2006.

There’s plenty to be optimistic about in Arizona. Sure, everyone was saying that last season, and chances are the 2005 disappointment will tempter most of the positive outlook for this season. But that’s usually when teams do breakthrough. Last year, just at people started to doubt the Seahawks, they went to the Super Bowl. Arizona has to finish above .500 before they start talking about postseason play, but I think this is the year they make that step. Green is in his third year as head coach. He’s finally got the same pieces in place that he had in Minnesota. They open a new stadium, and their defense is strong along the front line. If Bertrand Berry and Antrel Rolle are healthy this season, the Cards have a chance to win a relatively weak division.

For the finals words on the Cardinals preview, I leave them to Kurt Warner:

“I think as a team, especially as an offense, we have such a greater handle on the offense this year,” admitted Warner. “When you’re going out there and you’re running plays, you’re expecting everyone to be in the right place and make the right adjustments. Last year at this time you still were not sure.”

“I see the comfort level of the offensive line, the adjustments they’re making, the moves they’re making and the way they’re working together,” complimented Warner. “From a mental standpoint I feel a lot more comfortable where we are now, than where we were all last season.”

2006 NFL Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Index

I’m starting this year’s offensive coordinator preview with the NFC West since I failed to get even halfway through the NFC last season.

I also don’t necessarily plan on going in order like I did last year, so according to the following table, if the team is written in blue, I’ve written their summary. If they’re not, I haven’t.



AFC
New York Jets	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	Oakland Raiders
Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans	Denver Broncos
New England Patriots	Cleveland Browns	Houston Texans	Kansas City Cheifs
Buffalo Bills	Baltimore Ravens	Jacksonville Jaguars	San Diego Chargers
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles	Chicago Bears	Tampa Bay Bucs	Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	Carolina Panthers	Arizona Cardinals
Washington Redskins	Detroit Lions	Atlanta Falcons	San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	St Louis Rams

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Washington Redskins

Now that the Redskins have traded for Santana Moss, traded away Rod Gardener, signed David Patten, and cut Darnerien McCants, those who remember the ‘Skins glory days are conjuring up visions of Washington’s 1991 championship season. That year, Joe Gibbs had Mark Rypien throwing to the trio of Gary Clark (5′11), Art Monk (6′3), and Ricky Sanders (5′11). It’s true that Coach Gibbs feels that there are more important things in a receiver than his height:

Asked about the impact that smaller receivers would have on the offense, Gibbs said: “We’ve had Gary Clark, Ricky Sanders and Alvin Garrett, some very explosive smaller guys. What I’ve found in our receivers is that explosiveness and the ability to make things happen on the field has less to do with size.”

David Patten, who has come to Washington from New England, knows a little about winning with smallish receivers too.

“We were just a bunch of small guys that got a lot of production on the field,” said Patten, New England’s number two receiver for most of its championship run. “Everybody always focused on our size. A lot of time, we got overlooked as a corps. We felt like we had one of the best corps in the league. And you saw the end result.”

I agree that the NFL’s reinforcement of illegal contact rules should help receivers who rely on their quickness more than their size. But even last year’s Patriots focused on their taller targets inside the red zone. The TE combo of Grahame, Fauria, Vrabel, Weaver, Watson resulted in 24 red zone targets in 2004. WRs Branch, Patten, Brown, Johnson, combined for 20 targets inside the 20. Givens, the tallest of the Pats receivers last year, took in 14 targets alone. So when it comes to fantasy WRs, you have to be immediately concerned about the TD potential for any of the Redskins’ receivers.

Patten is a complete player, he should get at least 1000 yards and if there’s one guy I had to take, it would be him. Tight end Chris Cooley surprised many last year with 6 touchdown catches. He was the 7th most targeted tight end in the red zone last year, and with Gardener and McCants gone, you have to believe that he’ll be looked at even more this season.

And then there’s Patrick Ramsey, who has yet to play an entire NFL season. In 30 career games, Ramsey has just 33 TD passes and his 28 career interceptions are equally troubling. It does not appear that Ramsey has the talent to become a top-tier NFL quarterback. Sure, he’s tough, and he’s got a strong arm, but the decision making and accuracy he’s shown has been just average.

Now in their second year with this offense, it would be a bad assumption to think that the team has a handle on what it is they’re doing with the ball. As this Post article points out:

Washington’s starting offense produced just two touchdowns in nearly seven preseason quarters, and Ramsey failed to curtail talk of an impending quarterback controversy by throwing just two touchdowns and four interceptions, while veteran backup Mark Brunell shined in all four games. The revamped receiving corps — smaller and faster — got downfield and caught some deep passes to improve on that part of the game, yet the Redskins still failed to regularly get in the end zone.

And through it all, untimely and unnecessary penalties and miscues were a concern. Several potentially fruitful drives were derailed by the elementary procedural penalties that plagued the Redskins in 2004, Washington failed to protect the football (a minus-8 turnover differential, worst in the NFC), had occasional time-management issues and again lost replay challenges. Thursday’s 15 penalties for 118 yards had much to do with the number of reserves on the field, but the Redskins still averaged over eight penalties per game in the preseason after committing 1,047 yards worth of penalties last season.

Part of their recent struggles could be attributed to a slight redesign that occurred this off-season in order to take advantage of Clinton Portis’ running style. His 3.8 yards per carry average last season was 1.7 yards under his career average going into 2004. One should expect Portis to finish this season closer to his career numbers. But one should also be concerned about the number of carries he’s getting in Washington. Portis is not the type of back that Gibbs was used to during his reign in the 80s and the 343 carries Portis received in 15 games last season is troubling. His previous career high was 290. So while I expect Portis’ yards per game to increase this year, I question whether or not he’ll be able to play in all 16 games. If he misses time, look for Ladell Betts to become one of those impact running backs that someone picks up midseason and rides to victory for a few weeks.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - New York Giants

There are reasons to be optimistic about this team. Remeber first, that the Giants were 5-2 last season going into their bye week before they fell apart. They’ve also drafted extremely well over the last two years. In 2004, they got Eli Manning, future All-Pro guard Chris Snee, Reggie Torbor (who is anchoring the middle of the defense this year), and starting free safety Gibril Wilson.

Then this past April in the ‘05 draft, the Giants appeared to have made the most out of just the four picks they had. Second round pick Corey Webster, a cornerback, has been all over the field this preseason causing turnovers and making plays. Justin Tuck, a third round defensive end, has been equally impressive. New York picked RB Brandon Jacobs in the fourth round and DE Eric Moore in the sixth. Both will make an impact this season as well.

So what does this have to do with fantasy football or offensive coordinators? Well, not much really, other than it should serve as notice that the New York Giants are very close to becoming a very good team.

OC John Hufnagel has been coaching for over 30 years, most recently as the QB coach of the Patriots’ 2003 team, of the Jags’ 2002 squad, and with Indianapolis in 2001. With his prescense in NY, there should be no concerns about the level of education Eli Manning is receiving.

Confident that Manning was able to escape serious injury to his throwing arm, the Giants feel positive about their QB’s chances of starting under center week 1 against Arizona. And only from there, will this team continue to improve. It appeared that when Manning struggled last year, for the most part he was making the right decisions but just not the right throws. His footwork is even better than his older brother’s and it’s obvious that the two share the same, great understanding of the game. Therefore, it’s pretty safe to assume that it’s only a matter of time before Eli moves to become one of the premiere quarterbacks in the NFL.

But what should we expect to see this season from Manning? Well, in Peyton’s rookie season, he played in every game, completing 56.7 percent of his passes for 3739 yards, 26 TDs and 28 INTs. In the seven games that Eli started (weeks 11-17) in 2004, he went 92/188 (48.9%) for 977 yards, 6 TDs, and 9 INTs. Average those numbers out over 16 games and you get 2233 yards, 14 TDs, and 21 INTs, so his production curve is behind Petyton’s.

In Peyton’s second season, he saw a 9.5% increase in completion percentage (5.4 points, from 56.7 to 62.1), a 10.5% increase in passing yards, the same number of touchdowns, but a 46.6% reduction in interceptions. If Eli is to follow a similar pattern, based on his limited 2004 numbers he would finish this season with a 53.5% completion percentage, 2467 yards, 6 TDs, and 5 INTs. Obviously, those numbers are way too low to put towards a 16 games season for Eli, but I think it just shows how much trouble he had in 2004. I hope, and I expect remarkably better numbers from Eli Manning in this 2005 season.

Tiki Barber is coming off a career year in 2004 and there should be absolutely no doubt that his numbers will decrease. In a phrase, he was the Giants’ offense last year. This season, that won’t be the case. Barber is still the teams’ starting running back, but I expect his numbers to end up around 1300 rushing yards, 500 receiving, and 6 touchdowns. And if you don’t believe that, listen to Barber himself:

“Brandon Jacobs, he’s going to do great things for this offense this year,” Barber said, “and keep us on the field in short situations and give me time to rest and be healthy for every situation throughout the game. It’s the most comfortable I’ve been in a long time. This running back group this year will be about roles and functions. I think we have guys who understand that.”

In 2002 when Tom Coughlin was in Jacksonville, he had Fred Taylor healthy for 16 games and yet Stacy Mack ran the ball 98 times for 436 yards and 9 touchdowns. Jacobs could easily approach those numbers, although if Jacobs is scoring close to 10 Tds, the Giants are probably winning a wild card spot in the NFC and I don’t see either of those two things happening this year. But you never really know, do you?

At wide receiver, Plaxico Burress moves into the split end spot and Amani Toomer slides over to play flanker. Those two, together with Jeremy Shockey provide a trio of targets for Manning that are each at least 6′3 and 200 lbs. Last year, Giants wide receivers scored just two touchdowns all year (while their tight ends had eight). With Burress in the mix now, that number has to go up, but considering Burress has never finished a season with more than 7 touchdown catches, don’t expect an overflow of passing touchdowns just yet. If anything, Toomer should benefit the most from the new set up. He’s a 1000 yard WR who has fallen off of most fantasy radars this season. I expect a bounce back season for him. One other receiver to keep an eye on is David Tyree, a 6 foot, 200 lbs third year guy from Syracuse. Tyree has looked solid this preseason and he makes plays on special teams. He probably won’t do anything fantasy-wise this year, but he’s got some talent.

Finally, there’s Shockey, who according to reports, is playing like his old self again. Based on that and his current career path, it looks like a 70 catch, 700 yard season is in store for the former Hurricane. Shockey set a career high in touchdowns last season with six. He was the sixth most targeted tight end last year, and in the red zone he had 22 passes thrown to him- third best among TEs. With a young quarterback still behind center this season, I expect Shockey to again be an asset that Manning will look to rely upon frequently.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Philadelphia Eagles

Now that it looks like Terrell Owens will indeed be playing with the Eagles this season, you almost have to move both he and Donovan McNabb back up to the draft positions you would have had them at just after the Super Bowl.

Last week against the Bengals, in what turned out to be just around a half game’s work, T.O. caught 5 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown. McNabb looked equally impressive, going 14/23 - 256 - 3/0. They were even talking to each other in between plays and everything.

Andy Reid, Brad Childress, Marty Mornhinweg, and the rest of the Eagles’ offense relies heavily on creating mis-matches. And when everyone on their roster is actually on the field, Philadelphia has the personel to take advantage of almost anything a defense can throw at them.

First there’s McNabb, or as his peers call him, Superman. At 6′2, 240, he’s big enough to break out of a linemen’s arm tackle. He’s also fast enough to run past linebackers. But what has made him one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks is his willingness to beat teams through the air, and not with his legs. As a rookie, McNabb played in 12 games and ran 47 times for 313 yards. Averaged out over 16 games, that would have come to 417. In 2000, McNabb began his first season as the Eagles starting quarterback. He threw for 3365 yards that year and also ran for 629 more. But ever since then, his rushing yards have declined as he’s picked up the team’s offense and as he’s learned how to read coverages.

Then last year McNabb made that final leap into the upper tier of quarterbacks as he led the Eagles to a 13-3 record. He completed a career high 64% of his passes on the way to a career high 3875 passing yards and a career high 31 passing touchdowns. Add into that 200 rushing yards and 3 more TDs, and you get a top five fantasy QB. With all of his targets on the field, there’s no reason to think he can’t put up similar numbers this season. But Donovan’s fantasy-bound train is very much attatched to T.O.’s caboose at this point.

That, of course, brings us to the center of all this turmoil we’ve had to put up with since… oh 2001. I don’t think T.O. is necessarily a bad teammate to have. Lately yes, but on the whole, he’s a guy who wants to win and he’s a guy who’s willing to sacrifice himself to get there. He also just happens to be one of the most dominant offensive weapons of this era and he feels that if his team is struggling, he can do something about it. And most of the time he’s right. And most of the time it’s wrong fot him to say so. This, we all know. The Eagles knew what they were getting last year, that’s why they’ve got him in a contract now that he can’t get out of. And so I’ve thought that he’ll play this season.

What separates Owens from Moss and Harrison is that he can play like both. T.O. has Harrison’s quickness and Moss’ size. Only Owens is probably quicker than Harrison and he’s definitely bigger than Moss. That allows Owens to do what few other receivers in the game can do. He can be split out wide and beat a cornerback straight down the field, and he can be put in motion, run a crossing route over the middle, catch a five yard pass and turn it into a 60 yard gain.

In fourteen games last season, Owens caught 77 passes for 1200 yards and 14 touchdowns. In 16 games this season, he should get 85 - 1400 - 16. If you believe, as I do, that Moss won’t get near those numbers in his first year with a new offense, T.O. will probably end this season as the game’s top fantasy wideout.

(This is just one reason why you should have your fantasy drafts either at the beginning of the preseason or at the end.)

The third man who makes the Eagles offense go is obviously Brian Westbrook. And even though Correll Buckhalter will again miss the entire season with a knee injury, I think Westbrook will not be asked to carry the ball as much as he was last season. Andy Reid knows that he needs this guy healthy in the playoffs because the combination that B.W. and T.O. present to opposing defenses is a very difficult one to defend against. So look for Westbrook to be limited to about 100-125 carries this season and look for rookie running back Ryan Moats to get around the same amount.

At the Combine, Moats ran a 4.49 - 40 and he’s shown this preseason the quickness and awareness to run in and out of the tackle box. At Louisiana Tech, the 5-8, 210 pound Moats averaged 6.4 yards per carry over 499 carries and he scored 28 touchdowns with the Bulldogs. Moats is not a great inside power runner, but he’s the kind of guy the Eagles will be able to use in a offense of this style in order to spell Westbrook.

One of the great fantasy values this year plays tight end for the Eagles, in L.J. Smith. That’s because listed second on Philly’s depth chart at TE is undrafted rookie Stephen Spach. L.J. Smith should get a ton of playing time and he’s shown he has a nice pair of hands and that he can create excellent separation from defenders.

On defense, I’m not big on spending such a high pick on a D/ST but with the Eagles, at least you know you’re going to get a championship caliber team. They’ve gone 59-21 over the last five years and have finished 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 7th, and 3rd in points allowed over that same time. Andy Reid keeps saying this is the best camp he’s had, so I’ve got to believe him and think that despite everything these Eagles have been through so far, they will be back in the NFC Championship Game for the fifth year in a row.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - San Diego Chargers

The 2004 Chargers scored the third most points in the NFL in part because they did two things very well: 1) they limited turnovers (+15 ratio, third best), and 2) they coverted red zone chances into touchdowns. In 63 possessions inside the twenty last season, San Diego scored an NFL high 44 touchdowns (69.8%). And they came away with points nearly 91% of the time, also an NFL high.

But Cameron’s and Schottenheimer’s Chargers will have to produce more yards this year if they are going to equal their point output from 2004. San Diego finished 11th in the NFL in total yards, but just 18th in passing yards last season. Their philosophy is to run often (4th most attempts in ‘04, 6th most yards) and pass conservatively (least INTs given).

These Chargers aren’t going to catch anyone by surprise this season and they’ll need Drew Brees to continue improving in order to make the playoffs again. Brees is a very accurate quarterback who needs to keep making smart, quick decisions with the football to be an effective passer. Despite throwing for just 3159 yards last year, Brees made a fantasy impact with his 27/7 TD/INT ratio. While I don’t think he’s going to turn the ball over too much more this season, you still have to look at his numbers and wonder how much better they could possibly be in this offense.

In the last 12 seasons of Marty-ball, dating all the way back to 1991, a Schottenheimer coached team has finished higher than 15th in total passing yards just once- in 1994 with Joe Montana and Steve Bono. In fact, his average passing yards finished over those 12 seasons is 20.75. On the flip side, his teams have finished inside the top 10 in rushing yards eight times over those last 12 seasons, and his average rushing finish is 9.8.

That said, whomever is running the ball for Schottenheimer is automatically a top fantasy candidate. It just so happens that the Chargers have at running back the most complete player in the NFL today. There is no one in the league better at the job he does than LaDainian Tomlinson. If you need him to catch the ball out of the backfield, he’s proven he can do that with 291 receptions in four years (including a 100 catch season in ‘03). If you need him to pick up blitzes, he can do that too. LT has appeared in 63 of his team’s 64 games in his four NFL years. He’s averaged 1475 yards rushing and 506 yards receiving and 15 touchdowns during that time. Yes he’s the first overall pick. In my opinion, he’s been the first overall pick for three years now. What we have here is a superstar player in a system that allows him to be a superstar. Michael Turner looks to be the leading contender to back up LT this season.

And then there’s Antonio Gates; oh the heartache he’s put Charger fans and fantasy owners through this off-season. The thing is, this is not a T.O. situation. Gates is loved by all his teammates, he’s a team first guy, and most importantly, he was deserving of a pay raise. And Gates got it too, two days after reporting to camp, the Chargers announced they had signed him to a six year deal. Unfortunately, he’ll still be forced to sit out week one against Dallas, but Gates also sat out week 17 last year and he still set the NFL record for touchdowns by a tight end. Sure, many fantasy leagues don’t play during week 17, but the point is, you just never know how a player is going to perform in one particular week. If you’re in a league that doesn’t play during W17, that means you’re getting Gates for 14 games. Still, there’s absolutely no reason to downgrade Antonio just because of this one game suspension.

Gates is the model fantasy player. He doesn’t block well, he doesn’t have a lot of experience playing football (except learning defenses on Madden, as he has described in the past), but Gates gets as much separation from defenders as any top WR does and because he’s so big, he’s nearly impossible to defend in close spaces. Gates was targeted 26 times in the red zone last year. He scored on 12 of those plays. By comparison, Tony Gonzalez, was targeted 28 times but only scored on 3. It’s just a matter of how teams use their players. And in the red zone, the Chargers rely on Gates and LT almost exclusively.

As for the other receivers, I feel the Chargers wide outs are mostly a non factor in fantasy football. Keenan McCardell is by far the best option, but he only averaged 56 yards per game last year and only scored one touchdown. And as described above, this teams looks elsewhere inside the twenty, so you should look elsewhere for your WRs.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Kansas City Chiefs

The AFC West is a rather predictable division to write about because each of its four teams are coached and managed by men who have been in the NFL for many, many years. They each have a extensive record of winning and also a well defined philosophy on how they wish to get there.

As the Chiefs begin their fifth season under Dick Vermeil and Al Saunders, they bring with them an offense that has finished no lower than 5th in total yards in the last four years. Anchored by an offensive line that averages 309 lbs and nine years of experience among its starters, Kansas City finished last year first in total yards, first in first downs per game, third in average gain per offensive play, third in third down efficiency, second in points per game, and third in time of possession. There really is not much room for improvement there.

Trent Green ended the season with 4591 yards passing (2nd best) and the duo of Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes combined for 316 carries, 1473 yards, and 23 touchdowns. When you add in backup Derrick Blaylock’s 539 yards and 8 touchdowns on 118 carries, the total rises to 434 - 2012 - 31.

Obviously, this is a piece of fantasy pie that you should want to be a part of. Yet, espn’s live draft results currently list Holmes’ average draft position at 3.9. Now that Blaylock is in New York, it’s much easier to handcuff Johnson to Holmes and still ensure yourself of 1500 yards and 20 touchdowns. Johnson is being picked around 89th, so in a ten team league, you’re having to use a first and a eighth round pick to get that production. In competitive leagues, Johnson should be going as early as the fourth round- once all of the sure RBs are taken. So, the question is: are they worth it?

Personally, I value picks 5-8 as the most important because the chances of you getting a good player from 1-4 are much higher than they are at 5-8. As a result, it’s in that area where good teams make their mark. Last year, 5-8 is where you got guys like Javon Walker, Mushin Muhammad, Willis McGahee, Jerome Bettis, and Antonio Gates. So I’d personally answer the Johnson/Holmes question with a ‘no’ because I’m trying to hit homeruns with those middle round picks, not handcuff my running backs. But there’s absolutely nothing wrong with going the KC RB route, just make sure it’s in your plans to get both.

One last note on Johnson, this quote is from a Kansas City Star article dated just this past Friday, 26 August 2005:

“I’ve still got an attitude problem,” [Johnson] said. “I still feel the same I’ve always felt. I see the draft, I see guys like Cedric Benson, Carnell Williams, all those guys who have a chance to be starters on their teams. I’m just looking for my chance.

“I don’t want to waste three or four years of my prime running behind somebody, period. I don’t care who it is. I feel like I should start somewhere in this league.”

I understand his point, but Yikes.

With Antonio Gates’ situation, Tony Gonzalez is still the number one tight end being picked but I feel that this is an error on the part of the drafting public. Gonzo is coming off career numbers (102 - 1258 - 7) and he’ll be sharing catches with TE prospect Kris Wilson, a guy the Chiefs really liked prior to last season and before Wilson broke his left fibula (more on Kris here). Gonzalez has also missed camp time due to a broken finger (click here to see a nice pic of him trying to catch a ball with a cast on his right hand).

In each of his last five seasons, Gonzo has averaged 12.9, 12.6, 12.3, 12.9, and 12.3 yards per catch. Over that same time, his catches have varied greatly: 93, 73, 63, 71, and then last year’s 102. This season, I’d put him around 75 again, meaning he should have around 950 yards. I’ll get into this when I get to the Chargers, but remeber that Gates only played in 15 games last year too and he still did pretty well. So if you like taking tight ends early, why would you ever pick Gonzalez before Gates?

At wide receiver, Eddie Kennison is a product of the system and I would never waste a draft pick on him. Last year’s numbers (62 - 1086 - 8) were all career highs, except for his TD count. Kennison picked up 9 in his first year in the league, but he only had 15 total in the 7 combined years between that year and 2004. So basically, he’s probably going to regress. The guy I do like here, because you’ll be able to get him at such a low value, is Sammie Parker. He’s starting opposite Kennison now that Johnie Morton is no longer with the team. Parker was the team’s fourth round pick in 2004 and he’s a speed guy from Oregon who could be a quality WR for teams in deep leagues or teams that start three or four WRs. He’s looked good so far this pre-season, and I’d imagine 50 catches, 800 yards, and maybe 6 TDs from him this year.

The biggest change for the Chiefs coming into this season is obviously on their defense. It’s still not good enough to draft in fantasy leagues, but an improved effort on their part will have an impact on the offense. Most significantly, on Trent Green’s production. He threw a career high 556 passes last year and completed 66.4 percent of them. The team also did well in controlling the clock and keeping their defense off the field, but they still gave up the most passing yards in the league. Assuming that improves, they’ll be running the ball more- or at least they won’t have to throw so many passes. Green may get close to 4000 again this year, but his overall numbers will be closer to his 2002 and 2003 production: somewhere around 3800 - 25 - 13. Still very good, but not good enough to take in the third or fourth round.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Denver Broncos

It’s hard to believe that the Broncos have turned Jake Plummer into a 4000 yard quarterback, but last season the former Sun Devil indeed finished fourth in the NFL with 4089 passing yards.

What the Broncos do on offense these days is fairly simple. They know they have to get Plummer out of the pocket as much as they can and the only way to do that consistently is to play action bootleg him to either side of the field. This works well with Denver’s long standing run philosophy because opposing defensive ends have to watch for 1) the RB’s cut back lane inside and 2) the QB’s naked bootleg outside. For as well as Plummer throws on the run (regardless of if it’s to his right or to his left), Denver can be a difficult team to defense against despite their fairly simplistic offense. It takes players with great discipline and field awareness to defend against them.

But when the games start to matter more, and the competition gets tougher, this Broncos offense is still very much a pony show. They have very obvious strengths and they have very obvious weaknesses and teams who play like that are very easy to beat in meaningful games.

Take for instance Plummer’s splits from last season. When the Broncos were ahead by 1-8 points, his QB Rating was 116.4. And when they were ahead by any margin, Plummer held a 105.1 rating. That’s when the Broncos are most able to get Jake out of the pocket and into open space. It’s when they control the pace of the game.

But when playing from behind last season, Plummer’s QB Rating was just 72.6 and when playing from behind by a wide margin (9-16 points) his rating sunk to just 67.5. By comparison, here’s a table of last year’s top six passers (yardage) and how they did in those game situations:

QB	AHEAD	BEHIND	DIFF
Peyton Manning	111.6	123.5	+11.9
Marc Bulger	98.4	88.7	-9.7
Trent Green	100.6	86.7	-13.9
Brett Favre	104.4	86.9	-17.5
Daunte Culpepper	121.3	101.6	-19.7
Jake Plummer	105.1	72.6	-32.5


Quite simply, if these Broncos are forced to deviate from their script, if they’re asked to do something they are not good at, they will struggle.

Further the point, in the 1st quarter of games last year, Plummer had a 109.6 QB Rating. That number fell to 86.3 in the 2nd quarter, 60.0 in the 3rd, and back up to 81.7 in the 4th quarter. In games where the margin of difference was 0-7 points (in favor of either side), Plummer rated out at 62.2. When the margin was between 8-14, his rating was 85.5 and at 15+ points, Plummer was at 108.7. These are all very troubling numbers for anyone who wants to believe the Denver Broncos can succeed with Jake Plummer and the way this offense is designed.

On the bright side, he should again make a pretty good fantasy quarterback. In only two games last season did he fail to throw for 200 yards or more. And in nine games did he throw for 2 or more touchdowns. Plummer is playing for a coach whose teams have finished, on average, 6th in the league in total yards and 7th total points over the last 10 years with the Broncos.

Wide receiver Ashlie Lelie averaged 20.1 yards per catch last season and he’s progressed nicely as one of the best deep threats in the NFL. But he doesn’t have much more upside than 60-65 catches a year unless he gets traded to Minnesota any time soon. Rod Smith is an 11 year veteran, but still looks strong. He’s been a 1000 yard lock for the last eight years.

Last year, Shannahan was high on Darius Watts coming out of college, but its clear that Watts doesn’t have ball skills to be a dependable deep threat or the size and hands to be a solid option over the middle. He’ll likely be a third receiver until he’s able to show the team something more, but right now, he’s battling with Jerry Rice for that role.

The Broncos are spending $12.5 million over 5 years to keep Jeb Putzier around but they also brought in Stephen Alexander to block and catch passes from the tight end spot. Both are a little undersized but will be used frequently in the passing game. I’d downgrade whatever upside Putzier showed last year because of Alexander’s presence.

At running back, Mike Anderson looks to have a lead on the spot after enjoying a great effort in the Broncos’ third preseason game against the Colts. Tatum Bell is of course more talented, but much like the situation in Cleveland, I feel the team will go with the more consistent runner in the long run.

For the most part, however, I wouldn’t consider any of these Broncos in my long term fantasy football plans. Denver faces Baltimore in week 14 and then travels to Buffalo in week 15. So if you got em, trade em early.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Jacksonville Jaguars

Carl Smith (bio) hasn’t coordinated an NFL offense since the Jim Mora, Sr. era in New Orleans (1986-96). Recently, he’s worked mostly as a quarterbacks coach- last year at USC and 2002 in Cleveland.

So other than hearing that the Jags were ‘going with a more vertical-style offense’ this year, it’s been hard to nail down exactly what that has meant. But over this past weekend, Jack Del Rio spoke about just exactly what they’re going to do with the ball this year:

“I know everybody likes to have a word that you can kind of associate with that [the offense], that describes the unit,” Del Rio said. “We want to be whatever we feel we need to be to attack the opponent we’re playing. If it takes running the ball 50 times, we want to be able to do that. If it takes spreading them out and throwing it 50 times, we want to be able to do that.”

That essentially means, they’re going to be balanced. And they are going to game plan, a lot. And there’s probably no better way to run an offense in the NFL today.

Only the Bears had a worse TD percentage in the red zone last season. Jacksonville made their way inside the twenty 45 times in 2005, but they came away with just 19 touchdowns. On the whole, they finished 29th in the league in total points and did not record more than 28 points in any one game last year. Ten times they were held under twenty points and in two games against division rival Houston, they scored a combined 6 points.

The Jaguars are, of course, led by Byron Leftwich on the field. Entering his third year in the NFL now, Leftwich is the type of quarterback who, like a Brett Favre, can win games just as much with his heart as with his arm. After back to back sub-3000 yard seasons to start his career, it will be interesting to see Byron work in a offense that is more suited to his talents. Too often last season the Jags would struggle for 56 minutes and then look great in the last two minutes of either half. I wonder if there’s a stat available to configure Leftwich’s passer rating in those last two mintues.

In spite of the ‘new offense,’ I wonder by how much the Jags are going to be able to stretch the field this year. Most of their receivers are big, rangy fellows like Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, Ernest Wilford, and Matt Jones. Smith is clearly the leader of this group. Aside from 2003, when he was suspended for four games, the future Hall of Fame WR has recorded eight straight 1000+ seasons. And even in ‘03, he put in 805 yards in twelve games. But Smith has never scored more than 8 TDs in one year, so he’s about as little risk/little reward as you can get in fantasy football.

Williams is a young and raw 22 year old who will probably need more experience before he appears on fantasy rosters. Wilford has made some clutch catches so far in his young career, but also needs more time. And then there’s first round pick, Matt Jones, whom I’m not a huge fan of. I think no matter how much polish this guy acquires on his way to becoming a NFL wideout, he’s still going to be the kind of guy who takes too many plays off.

One other wideout who I like on this team is Chad Owens. As a returner, he’s going to win at least one game for Jacksonville this season. But people are finally starting to notice just what this guy can do as a receiver too. Sure, he’s undersized and won’t play every down, but on a team that doesn’t have many players like him, Owens should get a chance to stand out. In that same link I hate on Matt Jones, I also wrote about what a steal Owens would be in this year’s draft. Consider Tim Dwight racked up 669 yards and 7 touchdowns one year with Atlanta and Jermaine Lewis pulled in 6 TDs and 784 yards with Baltimore. Owens has the ability to do the same, on top of the two or three return scores he’ll likely have this year.

At running back, the age-old question of Fred Taylor’s health will continue. He’s supposed to play in the Jags third preseason game, This time around, Taylor is recovering from off-season surgery on his left knee. And obviously, he’s good when he plays. But if you’re looking for a backup to Fred Taylor, you may consider rookie Alvin Pearman before you go after LeBrandon Toefield. Pearman was one of those guys at the Combine that the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock loved. He called Pearman this year’s Mewelde Moore and there’s good reason why. The former Cavalier has shown a tremendous burst through the hole in the Jags first two games this season and I think that before the season is done, he will get more time than Toefield does. But who knows just how much time that will be with Taylor coming back.

A final note: last season the team defense I had to have in leagues that played with such (individual players are better!) was the Buffalo Bills. They were coming off a solid 2003 season that was hindered only by the low number of turnovers they were able to force that season. So leading into last year, that was an area of focus for the squad and they ended up 2004 as one of, if not the best fantasy defense. They year before that, I had Baltimore and before that I had Tampa Bay. Each of those defenses were squads that could be drafted long after the consensus ‘top picks’ that year and each of those squads ended up out-performing almost every other.

I don’t know how long I can keep this streak going, but this season, I’m calling the Jags’ defense/special teams as the group to have. You’ll be able to get them long after Baltimore and Buffalo and Pittsburgh are gone. Jacksonville has made pressuring the quarterback their top defensive priority this off-season. They brought in DE Reggie Hayward (10.5 sacks with Denver) through free agency and will get their other end Paul Spicer back after he missed much of last year with an ankle injury. Just as importantly, they should be playing with the lead a lot more this year and that’s the best way to get turnovers and sacks. In terms of points allowed, they gave up the fifth fewest in all the NFL last year and when you add in Owens’ ability to run kicks, I think this defense/special teams group is by far one of the best values in fantasy football this year.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Houston Texans

It’s hard to get excited about these Texans because it seems like we were down this very same same road last year.

What has changed?

This past off-season, the main story coming out of Houston was the maturation of David Carr and how the team was going to slightly redesign their offense in order to protect him more. They are intending on doing that by using more short drops/quick throws when they send out four or five receivers. But this offense won’t be confused with a Bill Walsh system any time soon. In 2005, this team will still use conservative play calling to control the clock and take shots down the field when the opportunity is right (sometimes, at least).

Offensive Coordinator Chris Palmer, who was head coach of the Browns during their expansion years, is officially on the hot seat after his Texans, despite their improvement, only managed to scored the 21st most points in the league last season. In support of Palmer, Houston has improved in each of their previous three years of existence- both in record and in offensive rankings.

In 2002, the Texans went 4-12, finishing last (32nd) in points scored and total yards. The following season, Houston won one additional game (5-11) and leaped up to 28th best in points and 31st in total yards. Last year, they finished 7-9, 21st in points, and 15th in total yards but more impressive was their balance. Their 3555 passing yards last season were 16th best (right in the middle of the league) and their 1874 rushing yards were good for 13th.

So while most expected last season to be the year the Texans pulled themselves out of last place, is this really the year they become a contender for a playoff spot?

While Palmer has a strong reputation for developing quarterbacks, it can be argued that Andre Johnson would already be an NFL superstar if Palmer would focus more of his attention on getting 2003’s 3rd overall pick the ball more. Further criticism is directed at Palmer by those who feel that he’s turning David Carr into another version of Tim Couch (the quarterback Cleveland selected first overall to build their expansion team around).

I don’t necessarily think the latter to be true but there is no doubt that Johnson has the ability to do more than what the Texans have asked him to do. Entering now his third NFL season, the former Miami Hurricane averaged 14.8 yards per catch his rookie season, and 14.5 last year. In contrast, Randy Moss has averaged 15.9 and Terrell Owens has averaged 14.6 in their careers so far. The problem here isn’t really that the Texans don’t do enough to get Johnson the ball, after all he did finish 17th in total targets last season, it’s just that they don’t do enough to put Johnson in a position to make a play on his own. In other words, they throw too frequently to Andre down the field and they need to do more to get him the ball closer to the line of scrimmage.

Tied directly to Johnson’s developement into an elite WR will be the play of fourth year receiver Corey Bradford. The former 5th round pick has the size (6-1, 200) and speed to play along the outside- therefore allowing the Texans to move Johnson in motion, into the slot, and anywhere else they can try to get him matched up against linebackers, safeties, and nickel backs. Consistency has been a problem for Bradford, but he’s said to be having good preseason.

David Carr threw for 3531 yards last year and it’s a very good bet that he’ll reach 3500 again in 2005. The biggest problem with the Texans is and will continue to be their red zone production. Last year, inside the 20, the Texans did finish 6th in the league in TD% inside the redzone (59.1). But a closer look at their numbers show that they only made 44 trips inside the twenty and nine of those times they walked away with no points at all. And already this preseason, the Texans’ first team offense was stopped on four straight downs from inside the 5 by the Broncos and they almost did the same thing against Oakland in PWeek2. Carr runs very well for a quarterback and he throws even better on the run, but the team’s lack of red zone production combined with his poor TD/INT ratio will keep Carr from being a top 10 fantasy quarterback.

Domanick Davis looks to be the clear starter at running back, but Houston has a ton of options behind him should something happen. Tony Hollings, Jonathan Wells, and rookie Vernand Morency have all looked strong this preseason. Since Davis is just a 5-9, 220lbs slasher, part of the Texans’ red zone troubles have to do with his inability to consistently gain straight ahead yards in close quarters. FB/RB Wells could steal more than the three touchdowns he scored last year as a result. But Hollings will most likely serve as Davis’ backup this season, considering they are similar in size and running style. Regardless, Davis will be sharing a good portion of the team’s carries again this season and if he’s to again be a top 10 fantasy back, he’ll need to make up yards as a receiver.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Oakland Raiders

I’m skipping ahead in the order a bit now because I haven’t had a chance to look at the preseaon work of any of the other two AFC South teams yet. I did, however, watch the OAK/SF game from this past weekend.

First off, let’s look at the Raiders’ head coach Norv Turner. He will be the one calling plays again this season (Raye’s bio can be found here). As head coach of the Redskins from 1994-2000, Washington went 49-59-1 under Turner (who left after Week 14 in 2000). Norv’s offenses during those seasons held an average total yards ranking of 13.7, but in only one season did they finish in the top 10 (1999, 2nd). Evidence of the mediocrity of Turner’s Redskins is also found in their win/loss column. After his first season with the ‘Skins- a 3-13 adventure- Washington never finished better than 10-6 or worse than 6-10.

Before becoming Oakland’s head coach prior to last season, Turner was coordinating the offense in Miami during the 2002 and 2003 seasons. It was during those two years the Dolphins were able to wield the potential of Ricky Williams into stardom. Miami finished just 15th and 24th in total yards during that time, but in 2002 they were 1st in rushing attempts, 2nd in rushing yards, 4th in yards per carry, and 3rd in rushing touchdowns. 2003 brought a decline in those numbers, but they still ranked 8th in total rushing attempts, led by Williams’ 392 carries that season.

In 2001, Turner was put in charge of a San Diego offense that finished 28th in total yards (out of 31 teams) the year before. Getting the chance to work with then rookie running back LaDainian Tomlinson, Turner helped the Chargers improve to 15th best in total yards and 14th best in scoring (up from 26) in ‘01. And that was with Doug Flutie at quarterback.

Balance has been Turner’s reputation, but in his successful years he tends to favor the run. That’s true for most good teams because they are playing with the lead more. But since Turner likes to lean on one back heavily, that means good things for fantasy owners. From 1999 to 2003, Turner’s offenses finished 10th, 15th, 18th, 1st, and 8th in total rushing attempts. But more importantly, look at the work-load he’s given his lead back over that stretch:

YEAR	RB	Att	YARDS	TD
1999	Stephen Davis	290	1405	17
2000	Stephen Davis	332	1318	11
2001	LaDainian Tomlinson	339	1236	10
2002	Ricky Williams	383	1853	16
2003	Ricky Williams	392	1372	9

Because he has favored single RB backfields for so long, it was of great disappointment last season when Norv Turner was unable to find a running back talented enough to carry his usual demand. The 2004 Raiders finished dead last in rushing attempts, dead last in rushing yards, and just 22nd in ypc (3.95). The teams’ leading rusher was Amos Zereoue, with 112 carries for 425 yards.

This season, the Raiders will get to unleash Lamont Jordan- a beast of a running back at 5-10, 230 lbs who’s just as quick as Jamal Lewis. Jordan toiled with the Jets behind Curtis Martin for four years where he never got more than 100 carries during any one season. Still, Jordan managed to average 4.9 ypc over those years. If you watch Jordan play, you expect a guy of his size to run with the kind of power he displays in and out of the tackle box. What you don’t expect is for him to catch the ball so well out of the backfield, but that’s exactly what he is able to do. In the kind of offense they have in Oakland, Jordan will easily bring in 50 passes for at least 400 yards (Williams had 50-351 in ‘03 and 47-363 in ‘02). I would not be surprised to see Lamont catch 75 for over 500 yards, his hands are that good and he’s got the such a nice combination of size and quickness, he’s hard to bring down in the open field.

Norv Turner’s offensive philosophy is a very simple one. It begins with establishing the run in order to get linebackers and safeties stepping towards the line of scrimmage when the ball is snapped. When that happens, he likes to have fast receivers and strong-armed quarterbacks beat opposing defenses deep. And that’s why this story is not about Randy Moss, because the 2005 Raiders don’t need Randy Moss to catch 100 passes for 1600 yards to have a successful season. They just need other teams to be scared that he might. The Raiders will not likely face a lot of eight man fronts to start the season and Jordan will feast upon them early. Jordan will also get an opportunity to catch a lot of passes because with teams keeping their safeties deep in order to contain Moss, Porter, Curry, and Gabriel, there will be a lot of dump off passes open.

Behind center, the Raiders are well-equiped with Kerry Collins. In his best statistical season to date, Collins threw for 4073 yards in 2002 when he was with the Giants. He averaged 7.5 yards per completion and had a 61.5 completion percentage that year, both career highs. Last year, in his first season with the Raiders, Collins threw for 3495 in 14 games, which averaged out over 16 games would have been 3994, close to his career high. One cause for concern is that he throws interceptions at almost a 1:1 ratio to touchdowns. And in this offense, Turner likes to run the ball into the end zone. But if you’re in a league that rewards yardage heavily, Collins is a solid bet for 4000.

Finally, we arrive at Moss and company. It’s hard to use stats to back up what we should expect from this group in 2005 because this is easily the most talented set of WRs Turner has had to work with. In seven seasons with the Vikings, Moss averaged 82 catches, 1306 yards, and 12.8 touchdowns a season. His career high in receptions was in 2003, with 111. This year, I see him more as a 70-75 catch guy with a high average per reception. Moss is still very much a perimeter receiver even though he’s the world’s best perimeter receiver. And as good as a red-zone target as Moss is, I’d have doubts in drafting him in the first round because of Turner’s reputation for running the ball inside the twenty.

Regardless, I do not see 1600 yards in Moss’ immediate future. Part of that reasoning lies in Turner’s history of production at the WR spot and the other part is due to the fact that Moss is part of a group of fantastic wide-outs who will undoubtedly be targeted by Collins’ passes. Jerry Porter was just two yards shy of 1000 last year and he scored nine touchdowns as the team’s top WR. Consider, however, that as good of a season Nate Burleson had last year, he still only had 1006 yards- despite the Vikings finishing 2nd in the NFL in completions and with Moss missing four games.

So how many more yards can Porter put up playing 2nd to Moss? And then you have to factor in Ronald Curry, who was as impressive with his game-breaking ability as any WR last year. Consider also that last year was Curry’s first full season as a receiver and that the former UNC quarterback is in many ways on a similar career path as another former ACC QB, Anquan Boldin. And I also like what Doug Gabriel offers as a deep threat, but really, how can we expect him to haul in any more than the 33 passes he caught last year without Moss?

Probably one the hardest things Raiders fans who play fantasy football will have to decide on prior to the 2005 NFL season is picking which one of these Raiders they want to draft. It’s not smart to have two of them on your team and it’s just dumb to think that you can win your league with three. So with five starters returning along a very large and very talented offensive line, I’d wager that Lamont Jordan finishes the season as the most productive Raider.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Tennessee Titans

This is quite an opening statement:

Arguably one of the finest offensive coordinators in college football history, Norm Chow enters his first season as the Titans offensive coordinator.

Chow’s college coaching career has certainly earned him the right to have his name in that discussion, but how will that translate to the pro game? As we saw in Washington during Steve Spurrier’s reign there, collegiate football success does not always mean professional football success.

So I went searching, and found this illuminating article from before the 2001 season, when Chow was beginning his career at USC. The whole thing is worth a read, but there are a couple of notes that indicate what kind of offense Chow likes to run:

“The thing with the offense is once you’ve got it, you’ve got it,” Palmer said. “It doesn’t keep going like the old offense. It isn’t so broad. The key is taking what the defense gives you. I’ve been greedy with the long ball when there’s a guy 5 or 6 yards in front of me open. So he tells me to be more patient.?

Palmer’s reference here to ‘the old offense’ was one to Paul Hackett’s complex, west coast style that USC ran before Chow. (Hackett went on to coordinate the Jets offense and he is now a coach in Tampa Bay.)

Here’s more about Chow’s early days in Southern Cal:

…And that’s just what he’s done this summer at USC, installing his wide-open, pass-happy offense with a playbook about half as thick as the one used by former coach Paul Hackett. Instead of worrying about precise footwork and perfect mechanics, Chow is instructing junior quarterback Carson Palmer to merely relax and find the open man.

It’s worked before. In 27 years at BYU and last season at North Carolina State, Chow’s series of short to mid-range passes, thrown to each and every eligible receiver, has produced some of the greatest offensive seasons in college football history.

So this much is obvious: the Titans are going to call more timing-based, short to intermediate pass plays in order to keep Steve McNair clean and healthy for as long as they can. And to have any chance of making the playoffs, the Titans are going to need #9 starting every game they play.

McNair has played ten seasons now, this being his eleventh, and he holds an impressive 59.3 career completion percentage. He’s finished above 60% in each of the last five seasons. When you consider that McNair has been playing in an offense that in the past has been designed more around ball control and deep throws, his completion numbers are even more impressive. In a west coast style attack, McNair should approach a 70% completion rate this season.

At running back, I’ve never been a big fan of Chris Brown, so I’m instinctively drawn to Travis Henry’s value this year. I followed Brown a little in college, and he was injury-prone there too. But in addition to not being a reliable bet to start in the lineup, he’s not the most reliable runner either. Brown is the kind of back who, a little like Ricky Williams was, will lose two yards, lose one yard, and then break off a 46 yarder before fumbling. He’s got great size and speed, but that upright style is detrimental not just to his health, but also his ability to pick up at least three yards per carry or hold on to the football.

As for Henry, the former Volunteer is a good fit for a west coast offense. He blocks well, and catches the ball out of the backfield easily. When you add that to his hard-nose, low to the ground running style and I think that Jeff Fisher will quickly fall in love with Henry’s toughness and durability. Remember, Travis played much of 2003 with a cracked fibula.

The Titans will be playing their first season in eight years without the dependable Derrick Mason at wideout. And while I really like Drew Bennett, there’s just no way he catches 1247 yards again this year. Consider that 527 of those yards came in a stretch of three games (three monster games) against the Colts, the Chiefs, and the Raiders. Those were three of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year. Bennett is still a very talented receiver, and he’s in an offense that will probably give up enough looks in the red zone to haul in 8-10 touchdowns, so don’t overlook him completely.

There isn’t much else to say about Tyrone Calico besides ‘Is he healthy?’, but the one guy who I like to catch some balls on this Titans team is TE Ben Troupe. Since depth is a problem at WR this season, the Titans should be able to use both their excellent blocking TE in Enron Kinney, and their excellent receiving TE in Troupe on the field at the same time. The former Gator is athletic enough to line up in the slot, and fast enough to play against opposing safeties. He’s a solid second TE option in fantasy leagues. Just get someone else in case he goes flop.

One thing is for certain, if Tennessee’s offense struggles this year, it won’t be because Chow’s system doesn’t work in the pros. He’ll be successful, as long as he has the players to execute properly.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Indianapolis Colts

This one is easy.

Tom Moore has been in charge of the Colts’ offense since 1998. But it all started a year prior to that, in 1997. Indianapolis finished 3-13 under Lindy Infante that season and then went on to select Payton Manning with the first overall pick in the draft. Jim Mora was brought in to be the team’s new head coach, and Moore came in with him. The Colts finished 3-13 again that season, but in year two of Mora, Moore, and Manning, Indianapolis went 13-3.

In total, Moore’s seven seasons with the Colts have seen the team finish no worse than 16th in total yards for any one season. On average, they’ve finished 6th in total yards and 7th in total points scored. And obviously, last season was a pinnacle season. But was it as good as it can get? Can they be better?

Question: How do you assess the 2004 season from an offensive standpoint?

Moore: We accomplished our main objectives. But whatever we accomplished, we can certainly do better this year. There’s no reason that we can’t be more productive. We’ve still got a long ways to go. That’s what we shoot for. We’re never satisfied.

People always talk about wins and losses. I don’t . . . All I talk about is getting better. If we don’t get better, you aren’t going to win. If you get better, the wins take care of themselves.

By now, we all know how this offense works. Last year, they used more three WR sets as Brandon Stokely emerged as a threat down the middle of the field. The team even let TE Marcus Pollard go, perhaps figuring that they’d require even less of the two TE sets that Moore has been known to use.

But now there’s trouble. Brandon Stokely dislocated his shoulder in Tokyo, and because of the travel, the team hasn’t even yet determined how bad the injury is. They’re just hoping he’ll be back in time to begin the season. But who knows?

Stokley first made an appearance on the national stage during the Ravens’ Super Bowl run of 2000. As a NFL sophomore that year, Stokely caught just 11 passes for 184 yards with Baltimore during the regular season. But in the playoffs, the 5′11″ kid from Louisiana-Lafayette caught 7 passes for 91 yards and one huge Super Bowl touchdown.

The next season, the Ravens’ passing offense continued to struggle and Stokely’s career didn’t take off as expected. Then the injuries began to steal time from him. Stokely played in just eight games in 2002, and six in ‘03. Prior to last season, Stokley had just 82 career regular season catches, 1124 career regular season yards, and 10 career regular season touchdowns over his five year NFL career. In 2004, he caught 68 for 1077 for 10 TDs. And he’s got the talent to do it again. In this system, he’s the perfect fit, but he’s got to stay healthy. With his history of injury problems and because of his size, I doubt he’ll ever enjoy another season like 2004.

Reggie Wayne will enter this season in a contact year, and after watching his receiving yards increase in each of his four seasons, anything short of an injury to him or Peyton Manning should ensure another 1200 yards, 10 TD year. And while we’ve seen the last of the days where Marvin Harrison catches 140 balls, his production has dropped over the last two seasons not because of diminished skills, but simply because the offense he plays in has become more diversified. Harrison is entering his tenth season, and he still has plenty left. If Stokley is forced to miss any significant time, I believe Marvin’s numbers will benefit the most.

At tight end, the loss of Marcus Pollard was made possible by the team’s commitment to drafting tight ends over the last few seasons. Dallas Clark leads this deep group and while he too has been injury-prone, he is primarily a receiving TE. Clark doesn’t have great height (6′3), but he’s a tough Big Ten guy who runs well after the catch.
The Colts opted to bring back Edgerrin James despite rumors indicating otherwise. It’s likely that this will be his last season in Indy. James has called the franchise tag an insult, and if the Colts want to keep Wayne and all the players they’ve been drafting on defense- most notably Dwight Freeney- they’re going to have to lose James.

Over the past week, the NFL Network was showing some classic games in celebration of Dan Marino and Steve Young’s introduction into the Hall of Fame. One of the games they showed featured the Dolphins versus the Colts in Manning’s second year. That also happened to be James’ rookie season. I’ve known that the runner James is now is a remarkably different runner than what he was then. But when I turned on the Tokyo Bowl Sunday morning I saw something very familiar. There was Edgerrin James, running with authority, making decisive cuts, and charging through the line of scrimmage. James finished with 2031 yards from scrimmage last year, the most since his 2001 knee injury. I bet he approaches 2200 this season.

As this is looking like the final year these Colts will make a run at home field advantage and the Super Bowl, it’s very hard not to think Payton Manning can duplicate his numbers from last season. Is he a top five fantasy pick? I don’t think so. Top ten? Absolutely.