Ocho Cinco violates team rule, benched (AP)
NFL reinstates Cowboys CB 'Pacman' Jones (AP)
Report: Yankees' Mussina to retire (AP)
Agent: Edge wants out; Cards won't do it (AP)
2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Detroit Lions
Monday, August 20th, 2007
Rod Marinellii - second season with Lions
Mike Martz - second season with Lions
Background:
10 wins, Jon? Unlikely. Top team in total offensive passing yards? Very likely.
In 2006, the New Orleans Saints averaged 281.4 yards passing per game; 1st in the NFL ahead of the Colts’ 269.2. The Saints had 183 drives last year; 35 more than the Colts’ 148. So really, the Colts had the best statistical passing offense per game, averaging just over 29 passing yards per drive. The Saints averaged 24.6 passing yards per drive.
What does this have to do with Detroit? Being the best passing offense in the NFL doesn’t always translate into being the top fantasy football passing team. Like the 2006 Saints, you need to not only have the weapons on offense, but also a reason to use them. This Detroit offense, led by Mike Martz’s now famous, greatest show on turf game plan, eats up garbage time yardage like few other monsters are able.
Philosophy:
We know Martz. We know his system. No coach loves to use four wide receivers like he does. And the Lions now have four who fit this system perfectly.
Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson will end up being a better duo than Issac Bruce and Torry Holt were with Martz. I personally think Calvin Johnson is the best receiving prospect to come out of college, ever. He quite literally has every tool a receiver could want, the intelligence to know how to use them, and a work ethic as hardworking as his attitude is humble.
Those two towering WRs will work the sidelines and run those 20 yard deep-in routes while Mike Furrey will assume a role he’s better suited for, the slot; with former Ram Shaun McDonald making an impact on the field as the commonly used fourth receiver.
According to Football Prospectus, last year’s Lions used 3 WR sets 61% of the time, fourth most in the league. They used 4 WR 22% of the time, second most in the NFL.
They ran the ball the fewest of all 32 NFL teams (31%) and even with the lead they threw the ball more in that situation than any other team (63%). And here’s a great example from FO of the role that Mike Furrey played last year, and why he’ll still likely be a key player in the 2007 season.
Players:
For three straight years, 1999, 2000, and 2001, the Rams were the #1 offense in the NFL. They threw for 4580, 5492, 4903 yards in those three seasons.
Last years Lions threw for 4208, and considering the awful offensive line play they receive and lack of anything half as good as Marshall Faulk at running back, that’s pretty good. The 1999 Rams improved their yardage output 20% the following year, their second under Martz. So as the Lions enter their second year in Martz’s system, a 20% isn’t likely, but a considerable improvement - one closer to 10-15% - is still a significant one that can be expected.
That’s considering the addition of Johnson and improved their offensive line to a serviceable level, to go with the general improvement that goes with having another year in the same system.
20% added on to Kitna’s 2006 numbers project him to 5049 yards for 2007. Yikes. A 10% improvement ends Kitna’s season at 4628, which would have still led all quarterbacks in passing over the last two years. Of course, this is Jon Kitna. But remember that Kurt Warner is not really a top tier QB talent either. He never was. But he excelled in this system and there’s no reason to believe that Kitna can’t just because we all know he’s Jon Kitna.
Roy Williams saw 151 passes last year and caught 54% of them. Furrey saw 146 and converted 67%. Az Hakim saw the third most passes, but just 27. Corey Bradford saw 25. So if you take that top 4, you get a combined 349 pass attempts. Kitna threw 596 passes last year, but broken down by FO, 124 went to running backs, 59 to tight ends, and 377 to wide receivers. That adds up to 560 passing attempts (the discrepancy is likely due to throw aways, etc). So out of 560 real targets, 67.3% went to receivers. If you carry over that 377 to 2007, I predict Roy Williams will likely see 140, Calvin Johnson 110, Furrey 80, leaving 40 for the rest of the team.
Furrey’s 67% catch rate translates into 53 receptions for 2007, leaving him with a probably just under 600 yards for the season.
Roy Williams raised his catch rate from the mid 40’s % to 54% last season. Considering he’ll improve slightly based on the talent around him, his 2006 numbers should translate equally to this season when you account for the drop in passes he’ll likely to receive.
For Calvin Johnson, a 65 catch 1100 yard season is a likely starting point for projecting his rookie season. Torry Holt’s first season in St Louis was also Martz’s first as OC. Holt had 52 catches for 788 yards (15.2 avg) and 6 TD that year. Agreeing that CJ is already a better receiver than Holt was then, 60-65 catches makes for a bottom floor projection for CJ considering Holt’s numbers. A 55% catch rate on the 110 targets I expect CJ to receive, give him a 60.5 projected catch season as well. At 16 ypc, that’s a 968 yard season. At 18 ypc, 1089 yards.
When Anquan Boldin caught 101 balls for 1377 yards his rookie season, he averaged 13.6 ypc. Boldin is more of a possession receiver, so his ypc numbers will be lower than CJ’s. I bring up Boldin to make a point that rookie receivers on teams with bad defenses can really put up good numbers. Boldin made the transition to the pro game so well because he’s a former QB who approached the game like a pro since his FSU days. CJ has the intelligence to make an impact in the NFL right away too. And I personally feel that his 2007 numbers will guarantee at least a 1200 yard season. Randy Moss had 69 catches for 1313 his rookie year. CJ’s game in right in the middle of Boldin and Moss, so I’m going with 75 catches for 16.5 yards per catch giving him a 1237 season.
Mike Martz - second season with Lions
Background:
10 wins, Jon? Unlikely. Top team in total offensive passing yards? Very likely.
In 2006, the New Orleans Saints averaged 281.4 yards passing per game; 1st in the NFL ahead of the Colts’ 269.2. The Saints had 183 drives last year; 35 more than the Colts’ 148. So really, the Colts had the best statistical passing offense per game, averaging just over 29 passing yards per drive. The Saints averaged 24.6 passing yards per drive.
What does this have to do with Detroit? Being the best passing offense in the NFL doesn’t always translate into being the top fantasy football passing team. Like the 2006 Saints, you need to not only have the weapons on offense, but also a reason to use them. This Detroit offense, led by Mike Martz’s now famous, greatest show on turf game plan, eats up garbage time yardage like few other monsters are able.
Philosophy:
We know Martz. We know his system. No coach loves to use four wide receivers like he does. And the Lions now have four who fit this system perfectly.
Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson will end up being a better duo than Issac Bruce and Torry Holt were with Martz. I personally think Calvin Johnson is the best receiving prospect to come out of college, ever. He quite literally has every tool a receiver could want, the intelligence to know how to use them, and a work ethic as hardworking as his attitude is humble.
Those two towering WRs will work the sidelines and run those 20 yard deep-in routes while Mike Furrey will assume a role he’s better suited for, the slot; with former Ram Shaun McDonald making an impact on the field as the commonly used fourth receiver.
According to Football Prospectus, last year’s Lions used 3 WR sets 61% of the time, fourth most in the league. They used 4 WR 22% of the time, second most in the NFL.
They ran the ball the fewest of all 32 NFL teams (31%) and even with the lead they threw the ball more in that situation than any other team (63%). And here’s a great example from FO of the role that Mike Furrey played last year, and why he’ll still likely be a key player in the 2007 season.
On first down, the Lions threw to Roy Williams 50 percent more often than Mike Furrey. On second and third down, they threw to Furrey 30 percent more often than Williams.The Lions struggled last year in the red zone (-24.5% DVOA, 26th) and on third downs (-5.6%, 21st) but both numbers should improve dramatically with Calvin Johnson’s arrival and Furrey’s move to the slot.
Players:
For three straight years, 1999, 2000, and 2001, the Rams were the #1 offense in the NFL. They threw for 4580, 5492, 4903 yards in those three seasons.
Last years Lions threw for 4208, and considering the awful offensive line play they receive and lack of anything half as good as Marshall Faulk at running back, that’s pretty good. The 1999 Rams improved their yardage output 20% the following year, their second under Martz. So as the Lions enter their second year in Martz’s system, a 20% isn’t likely, but a considerable improvement - one closer to 10-15% - is still a significant one that can be expected.
That’s considering the addition of Johnson and improved their offensive line to a serviceable level, to go with the general improvement that goes with having another year in the same system.
20% added on to Kitna’s 2006 numbers project him to 5049 yards for 2007. Yikes. A 10% improvement ends Kitna’s season at 4628, which would have still led all quarterbacks in passing over the last two years. Of course, this is Jon Kitna. But remember that Kurt Warner is not really a top tier QB talent either. He never was. But he excelled in this system and there’s no reason to believe that Kitna can’t just because we all know he’s Jon Kitna.
Roy Williams saw 151 passes last year and caught 54% of them. Furrey saw 146 and converted 67%. Az Hakim saw the third most passes, but just 27. Corey Bradford saw 25. So if you take that top 4, you get a combined 349 pass attempts. Kitna threw 596 passes last year, but broken down by FO, 124 went to running backs, 59 to tight ends, and 377 to wide receivers. That adds up to 560 passing attempts (the discrepancy is likely due to throw aways, etc). So out of 560 real targets, 67.3% went to receivers. If you carry over that 377 to 2007, I predict Roy Williams will likely see 140, Calvin Johnson 110, Furrey 80, leaving 40 for the rest of the team.
Furrey’s 67% catch rate translates into 53 receptions for 2007, leaving him with a probably just under 600 yards for the season.
Roy Williams raised his catch rate from the mid 40’s % to 54% last season. Considering he’ll improve slightly based on the talent around him, his 2006 numbers should translate equally to this season when you account for the drop in passes he’ll likely to receive.
For Calvin Johnson, a 65 catch 1100 yard season is a likely starting point for projecting his rookie season. Torry Holt’s first season in St Louis was also Martz’s first as OC. Holt had 52 catches for 788 yards (15.2 avg) and 6 TD that year. Agreeing that CJ is already a better receiver than Holt was then, 60-65 catches makes for a bottom floor projection for CJ considering Holt’s numbers. A 55% catch rate on the 110 targets I expect CJ to receive, give him a 60.5 projected catch season as well. At 16 ypc, that’s a 968 yard season. At 18 ypc, 1089 yards.
When Anquan Boldin caught 101 balls for 1377 yards his rookie season, he averaged 13.6 ypc. Boldin is more of a possession receiver, so his ypc numbers will be lower than CJ’s. I bring up Boldin to make a point that rookie receivers on teams with bad defenses can really put up good numbers. Boldin made the transition to the pro game so well because he’s a former QB who approached the game like a pro since his FSU days. CJ has the intelligence to make an impact in the NFL right away too. And I personally feel that his 2007 numbers will guarantee at least a 1200 yard season. Randy Moss had 69 catches for 1313 his rookie year. CJ’s game in right in the middle of Boldin and Moss, so I’m going with 75 catches for 16.5 yards per catch giving him a 1237 season.
Posted in NFL Previews, Offensive Coordinator - 2007, Detroit, Football, General | No Comments »
2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Cleveland Browns
Sunday, August 12th, 2007
Romeo Crennel - third season as head coach
Rod Chudzinski - first season as offensive coordinator
Background:
Rob Chudzinski comes from two years of work with San Diego, as their TE coach. His move to be the Browns OC only further raises the profile of Kellen Winslow in Cleveland’s offense. In addition to Chudzinksi’s time with Antonio Gates, Rob has worked with K2 previously when he was the OC at UM from 2001-03. His hiring by the Browns is a clear effort to better utilize the most athletic and instinctive tight end in the game (when, you know, healthy…).
Philosophy:
It’s still early to tell, but given the situation at quarterback, I expect to Browns to base their game on the run and use a lot of playaction to get Winslow involved. The Browns have two good running backs now (below) that compliment each other well and enough talent at the receiving position to improve from one of the worst offenses in 2006 to somewhere in the 15-20 range, at least.
Players
Jamal Lewis is down from the 250-255 lbs he’s played at in recent years, weighing in at a svelt 235 lbs in 2007. In the Browns first preseason game against the Chiefs, Lewis looked as strong as ever, but much faster to the hole and even a bit of a threat again around the edge. Lewis was catching the ball well out of the backfield and looks like a very different runner.
Adding to the optimism for Lewis, he signed a one year contract in the offseason and is really playing with something to prove.
Lewis’ addition allows Jerome Harrison to assume the third down, change of pace role he’s more suited for. This should be a good duo.
And the Browns offensive line will be better in 2007. Injuries and poor personnel led the 2006 OL to 31st ranking 3.71 adjusted line yards per carry, according to Football Prospectus. The drafting of Joe Thomas helps immediately, as well as the offseason signing of left guard run blocking specialist Eric Steinbach. That left side duo will be a force this season, if healthy.
At receiver, the Browns intend to use former college quarterback Josh Cribbs as a slash player, ala Kordell Stewart but more like the Jets’ Brad Smith. Right now, Cribbs is more of a threat out of the backfield and in space than as a pure receiver, but he’s learning the position in his third NFL season and has the size and skills to be slot / special teams / 3rd down a playmaker on this team.
Braylon Edwards’ career won’t live up to the talent he possesses until he becomes more of a consistent and reliable option. Considering this passing game will be built around Winslow, I’d expect to see Edwards’ production to continue to be disappointing.
Charlie Frye suffers a bit from the Joey Harrington syndrome, where he’ll look solid for 90% of his plays and then do enough in the remaining 10% to completely screw his team.
Frye has Elway-like skills in the pocket and when on the move. He’s sees the field well and is surprisingly elusive, but just doesn’t make the best decisions to be a real #1 QB for a playoff team. Derrick Anderson seems to be struggling still with the speed on the NFL game, so Frye will be in early until Quinn is ready to play.
The Browns defense, in their third year with the 3-4, finally looks like its ready to be in the top half of the league. They are still old on the DL, but their linebacking unit - with the offseason addition of 3-4 OLB specialist Antwan Peek and the continued development of star OLB Kamerion Winbley - could be one of the best in the league. In the secondary, Leigh Bodden is the most underrated DB in the NFL, but needs to stay healthy for an entire season to earn the accolades he deserves. Fast-rising rookie CB Eric Wright should start on the opposite side to form a decent unit in the defensive backfield. Peek should help with their run defense, but the Browns will likely still be in the 20-32 ranking against the rush.
Rod Chudzinski - first season as offensive coordinator
Background:
Rob Chudzinski comes from two years of work with San Diego, as their TE coach. His move to be the Browns OC only further raises the profile of Kellen Winslow in Cleveland’s offense. In addition to Chudzinksi’s time with Antonio Gates, Rob has worked with K2 previously when he was the OC at UM from 2001-03. His hiring by the Browns is a clear effort to better utilize the most athletic and instinctive tight end in the game (when, you know, healthy…).
Philosophy:
It’s still early to tell, but given the situation at quarterback, I expect to Browns to base their game on the run and use a lot of playaction to get Winslow involved. The Browns have two good running backs now (below) that compliment each other well and enough talent at the receiving position to improve from one of the worst offenses in 2006 to somewhere in the 15-20 range, at least.
Players
Jamal Lewis is down from the 250-255 lbs he’s played at in recent years, weighing in at a svelt 235 lbs in 2007. In the Browns first preseason game against the Chiefs, Lewis looked as strong as ever, but much faster to the hole and even a bit of a threat again around the edge. Lewis was catching the ball well out of the backfield and looks like a very different runner.
Adding to the optimism for Lewis, he signed a one year contract in the offseason and is really playing with something to prove.
“I’m with a new team, so I felt as if I needed to do something new,” he said of his weight loss. “The Browns say they plan on running me a lot more, and I have to be ready.In a recent USA Today article, Lewis pulled no punches on his situation with his former team.
“This is a fresh start for me, and I want to take it to another level.”
“It was just a bad deal, man,” he says. “I didn’t get along with Coach (Brian) Billick. He didn’t get along with me. There was just a lot of turmoil going on. I needed to go.”Interesting words from Lewis, who I think is still at part to blame for his poor seasons in Baltimore. But this new Lewis looks like a real threat again, and a probable top 10 RB in 2007.
Lewis rips the Ravens for their personnel moves, maintaining the team didn’t do enough to support the rushing game.
“What did they do to make the running game better? Did they bring in new offensive linemen? No,” he says. “They brought in a new quarterback (Steve McNair) … but got rid of Darnell Dinkins, a blocking tight end.
“You know (Brian) Billick. He wants to throw the ball, anyway. I didn’t fit their scheme. I was ready to go. I was tired of just being beat up and talked about.”
Lewis stiff-arms the idea that the ankle problems and that offseason at a prison camp contributed to the spiral.
“That didn’t bother me,” he says. “That just made me go out and want to do better. It was just like they weren’t letting me do my job and they weren’t supporting me. … A 2,000-yard rusher does not forget how to run the football. Somebody may forget how to rush the football. Now I’m in a better place. ”
Lewis’ addition allows Jerome Harrison to assume the third down, change of pace role he’s more suited for. This should be a good duo.
And the Browns offensive line will be better in 2007. Injuries and poor personnel led the 2006 OL to 31st ranking 3.71 adjusted line yards per carry, according to Football Prospectus. The drafting of Joe Thomas helps immediately, as well as the offseason signing of left guard run blocking specialist Eric Steinbach. That left side duo will be a force this season, if healthy.
At receiver, the Browns intend to use former college quarterback Josh Cribbs as a slash player, ala Kordell Stewart but more like the Jets’ Brad Smith. Right now, Cribbs is more of a threat out of the backfield and in space than as a pure receiver, but he’s learning the position in his third NFL season and has the size and skills to be slot / special teams / 3rd down a playmaker on this team.
Braylon Edwards’ career won’t live up to the talent he possesses until he becomes more of a consistent and reliable option. Considering this passing game will be built around Winslow, I’d expect to see Edwards’ production to continue to be disappointing.
Charlie Frye suffers a bit from the Joey Harrington syndrome, where he’ll look solid for 90% of his plays and then do enough in the remaining 10% to completely screw his team.
Frye has Elway-like skills in the pocket and when on the move. He’s sees the field well and is surprisingly elusive, but just doesn’t make the best decisions to be a real #1 QB for a playoff team. Derrick Anderson seems to be struggling still with the speed on the NFL game, so Frye will be in early until Quinn is ready to play.
The Browns defense, in their third year with the 3-4, finally looks like its ready to be in the top half of the league. They are still old on the DL, but their linebacking unit - with the offseason addition of 3-4 OLB specialist Antwan Peek and the continued development of star OLB Kamerion Winbley - could be one of the best in the league. In the secondary, Leigh Bodden is the most underrated DB in the NFL, but needs to stay healthy for an entire season to earn the accolades he deserves. Fast-rising rookie CB Eric Wright should start on the opposite side to form a decent unit in the defensive backfield. Peek should help with their run defense, but the Browns will likely still be in the 20-32 ranking against the rush.
Posted in NFL Previews, Offensive Coordinator - 2007, Cleveland, Football, General | No Comments »
2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Green Bay Packers
Sunday, August 5th, 2007
Mike McCarthy - 2nd season as head coach
Joe Philbin - 1st season as offensive coordinator, 5th with team
Background:
The Packers began last December with a record of 4-8, following a crushing 10-38 home loss to the Jets. After that loss, the 2006 Packers rallied to string together four straight wins to help make their season not be the complete disaster it was destined to be under Mike Mularkey’s first year as head coach.
But when you look at how the Packers won four of those last four games of their 2006 season, you’ll see that it was done against a poor list of opponents and on the back of a rapidly improving defense.
In only their 30-19 win in San Francisco did Brett Favre have a good game, statistically. Ahman Green never went over 79 yards in either of those four contents. Donald Driver, meanwhile, was the go-to man for the first three games, catching 25 passes for 329 yards. Favre relied too heavily on Driver down the stretch last season mostly because Driver was the only consistent option for Favre to throw to downfield.
Football Prospectus ranked the DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value over Average) for the Packers’ offense in those last four games at: 16.2%, -55.6%, -24.6%, and 14.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, their defense’s DVOA for those four games was: -14.1%, -71.4%, -61.26, and -91.2%.
One of those wins came in the rain against the Vikings as Tarvaris Jackson made his first NFL start one to forget. Green Bay’s last win of the year was against the Bears, who were resting many of their starters for the playoffs. Another win came against the Lions, who were mired in game six of a seven game losing streak.
So how good can the Packers feel about 2007? They have a solid defense that should be stout against the run this coming season, but the offense will again rely on the production of youngsters in order to be competitive.
Philosophy:
The Packers are a zone blocking run offense that like to throw the ball down the field along the sidelines. There’s reason for optimism as the young offensive line of 2006 (both starting guards were rookies, Spitz and Colledge) should continue to improve in their second season together.
McCarthy will continue to call the plays and the team should improve their understanding of the offense based on the high number of returning players and coaches involved this system.
The Packers were the second worst team in the NFL on first downs and in the red zone in 2006 (based on DVOA). That poor number was a result in a pass-heavy offense that threw the ball on first down 53% of the time. The Packers were even pass-heavy when playing in the lead; throwing 50% of the time.
McCarthy expects to concentrate more on the run this season, but it remains to be seen whether he can stay true to that word, especially with the question marks at running back.
Players:
Driver was thrown 172 passes in 2006, second most in the NFL behind Torry Holt. He converted on 55% of those attempts for a career high 92 catches. Driver’s production has eclipsed 1200 yards in each of the last three seasons, so he’s been as consistent as any WR in the league. His catch total should drop based on the improved health of Jennings (below) and the addition of youth into this part of the depth chart.
Showing a unique ability to quickly pick up the offense as a rookie WR, Greg Jennings wasn’t able to return to his early season level after he sprained his ankle midseason. When healthy, Jennings was averaging about 5 catches a game for close to 90 yards. Obviously those numbers are too high to project as probable over 16 games (80 - 1440), but as a solid #2 option on a team that will struggle to match last season’s win total, 1000 yard seasons out of Driver and Jennings isn’t out of the question especially when you consider the depth chart at WR includes only Robert Ferguson and a slew of raw talent ( Jones, Martin, Clowney ).
In the backfield, McCarthy has made comments leading to believe he’d prefer to have a starting running back, but is comfortable with a rotation if needed:
Out of all the backs, Brandon Jackson is probably the best fit for this offense, but he’s young player who left Nebraska early and has been slow to develop so far this preseason.
Watching him run with the first team offense in their team scrimmage rebroadcasted on the NFL Network this week, Jackson showed the great ability to catch the football he’s be acclaimed for. As a runner, he has good vision, quick feet, runs low to the ground, gets skinny in the hole, and seems to always fall forward. He’s not particularly fast and doesn’t have a lot of moves in space, but looks like a reliable 4.2 yards per carry back who can line up in the slot and be a weapon out wide as well.
Rookie DeShawn Wynn is a power back out of Florida who could factor in near the goal line because of his size and running style. And Noah Herron’s versatility and reliability in pass protection will see him on the field on third and longs and in the two minute drill; thus limiting the amount of time Jackson or Morency will see anyhow.
It just doesn’t look like a good situation for fantasy owners. The passing game should still rule in Green Bay.
Joe Philbin - 1st season as offensive coordinator, 5th with team
Background:
The Packers began last December with a record of 4-8, following a crushing 10-38 home loss to the Jets. After that loss, the 2006 Packers rallied to string together four straight wins to help make their season not be the complete disaster it was destined to be under Mike Mularkey’s first year as head coach.
But when you look at how the Packers won four of those last four games of their 2006 season, you’ll see that it was done against a poor list of opponents and on the back of a rapidly improving defense.
In only their 30-19 win in San Francisco did Brett Favre have a good game, statistically. Ahman Green never went over 79 yards in either of those four contents. Donald Driver, meanwhile, was the go-to man for the first three games, catching 25 passes for 329 yards. Favre relied too heavily on Driver down the stretch last season mostly because Driver was the only consistent option for Favre to throw to downfield.
Football Prospectus ranked the DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value over Average) for the Packers’ offense in those last four games at: 16.2%, -55.6%, -24.6%, and 14.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, their defense’s DVOA for those four games was: -14.1%, -71.4%, -61.26, and -91.2%.
One of those wins came in the rain against the Vikings as Tarvaris Jackson made his first NFL start one to forget. Green Bay’s last win of the year was against the Bears, who were resting many of their starters for the playoffs. Another win came against the Lions, who were mired in game six of a seven game losing streak.
So how good can the Packers feel about 2007? They have a solid defense that should be stout against the run this coming season, but the offense will again rely on the production of youngsters in order to be competitive.
Philosophy:
The Packers are a zone blocking run offense that like to throw the ball down the field along the sidelines. There’s reason for optimism as the young offensive line of 2006 (both starting guards were rookies, Spitz and Colledge) should continue to improve in their second season together.
McCarthy will continue to call the plays and the team should improve their understanding of the offense based on the high number of returning players and coaches involved this system.
The Packers were the second worst team in the NFL on first downs and in the red zone in 2006 (based on DVOA). That poor number was a result in a pass-heavy offense that threw the ball on first down 53% of the time. The Packers were even pass-heavy when playing in the lead; throwing 50% of the time.
McCarthy expects to concentrate more on the run this season, but it remains to be seen whether he can stay true to that word, especially with the question marks at running back.
Players:
Driver was thrown 172 passes in 2006, second most in the NFL behind Torry Holt. He converted on 55% of those attempts for a career high 92 catches. Driver’s production has eclipsed 1200 yards in each of the last three seasons, so he’s been as consistent as any WR in the league. His catch total should drop based on the improved health of Jennings (below) and the addition of youth into this part of the depth chart.
Showing a unique ability to quickly pick up the offense as a rookie WR, Greg Jennings wasn’t able to return to his early season level after he sprained his ankle midseason. When healthy, Jennings was averaging about 5 catches a game for close to 90 yards. Obviously those numbers are too high to project as probable over 16 games (80 - 1440), but as a solid #2 option on a team that will struggle to match last season’s win total, 1000 yard seasons out of Driver and Jennings isn’t out of the question especially when you consider the depth chart at WR includes only Robert Ferguson and a slew of raw talent ( Jones, Martin, Clowney ).
In the backfield, McCarthy has made comments leading to believe he’d prefer to have a starting running back, but is comfortable with a rotation if needed:
“You’d always like to see someone jump up and grab a position, because I think when that happens, obviously productivity increases,” he said. “But once again, you want as much competition. It’s a long season, God forbid injuries are part of our game. So I’m very comfortable if it takes three, if it takes two, if it takes one. That doesn’t bother me at all. That’s the job of the coaching staff, to take advantage of the personnel.”Vernand Morency, who has added about 8 pounds to his frame, is expected to get the first chance as starter, but already this season has raised doubts about his durability with an early knee injury. Morency is much more of a slashing runner, compared to the departed Ahman Green. Both are fast, but Green was punishing while Morency’s style is more elusive. And as a result, he’s struggled in the past to not only be healthy but also that consistent one-cut, zone blocking type runner.
Out of all the backs, Brandon Jackson is probably the best fit for this offense, but he’s young player who left Nebraska early and has been slow to develop so far this preseason.
Watching him run with the first team offense in their team scrimmage rebroadcasted on the NFL Network this week, Jackson showed the great ability to catch the football he’s be acclaimed for. As a runner, he has good vision, quick feet, runs low to the ground, gets skinny in the hole, and seems to always fall forward. He’s not particularly fast and doesn’t have a lot of moves in space, but looks like a reliable 4.2 yards per carry back who can line up in the slot and be a weapon out wide as well.
Rookie DeShawn Wynn is a power back out of Florida who could factor in near the goal line because of his size and running style. And Noah Herron’s versatility and reliability in pass protection will see him on the field on third and longs and in the two minute drill; thus limiting the amount of time Jackson or Morency will see anyhow.
It just doesn’t look like a good situation for fantasy owners. The passing game should still rule in Green Bay.
Posted in NFL Previews, Offensive Coordinator - 2007, Green Bay, Football, General | No Comments »
2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Dallas Cowboys
Friday, August 3rd, 2007
Wade Phillips - 1st season as head coach
Jason Garrett - 1st season as offensive coordinator
First, I’m down on the Cowboys because their web site navigation is awful. Not only are their coaches and executive bios based on unlinkable coldfusion and javascript anchor tags, but the scrolling inside those resulting pop-up windows is irksome. They’ll win at least one less game this year because of it, I swear.
Background:
Jason Garrett, a backup QB for the Cowboys from 1993-1999, takes over as offensive coordinator for Dallas. This is the first time ever Garrett will be in charge of an offense, so there’s likely to be a bit of a learning curve this season.
Garrett, a Princeton graduate, seems to be a very good student of the game. He was never particularly talented as a quarterback but managed to hang on to a backup job for many years in the league. After retiring, he served as the Dolphins quaterbacks coach for two years under Nick Saban.
Jerry Jones brought in Garrett before he had a head coach, a move that shows just how much faith the Cowboys’ owner has in the 41 year old.
Philosophy;
Quite simply, Bill Parcells’ offense was boring and predictable. What Garrett and new head coach Wade Phillips have brought to this team is a new, creative outlook that should benefit the skill position players most.
Already through minicamp and the start of training camp, I’ve seen the Cowboys line up receivers in a number of new spots, compared to last season. The one player who’ll likely benefit most from this new offense is tight end Jason Witten. After two straight years of 65 catch, 750 yard seasons, I’d expect Witten’s numbers to approach his 2004 output of 87 catches and 980 yards.
Garrett intends to use a Ernie Zampese style, timing based offense to take advantage of Tony Romo’s ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Garrett will also be calling the plays.
Unlike Parcells, both Philips and Garrett stress the need to move players around the field to get them involved and into positions to make plays.
Players:
Besides Witten, Terrell Owens should rebound from his hand-injury 2006 season as well. TO only put up 1180 yards in 16 games of action, and had a lot of drops throughout the season.
Terry Glenn’s early season injury troubles could lead to Patrick Crayton playing a bigger role in the offense early on. Crayton excelled last season against Arizona when Glenn was unable to make the road trip to Phoenix.
The running back situation is still a bit of a committee, but based on talent and production alone, I think we’ll continue to see Marion Barber get more chances and Julius Jones less. Jones had double the carries last season, and is more of a boom or bust back who excels between the 20s. Barber, meanwhile, scored 16 total TDs in 2006 despite just 135 carries and 23 receptions. He’s a consistent back who’s entering his third NFL season and should improve his yardage output.
As for Romo, I’m just not sold. Not only does he have to deal with the awful end to his season (and I don’t mean the dropped hold), but he’s just got a lot of pressure on him now as the starter, playing for a new contract, in a new offense. He’s highly athletic, and has that quick release, but when he was putting up good numbers last season, he was still forcing balls into spots that he shouldn’t have been throwing to.
That said, he’s got two great playmakers in Witten and Owens who can offer Romo the ability to continue to force passes into tight spots.
In the end, I think this Cowboys’ defense is going to be a real strong unit, perhaps a top 5 one. And that means the Cowboys will spend less time passing the football and trying to comeback from big leads (where most of passing leaders in the league gain on other teams in total yardage).
One final note for Football Prospectus/Outsiders types, the Cowboys were 2nd best in the league last season in third down efficiency, at 48.8%. Readers of that publication know that given Dallas’ mediocre success in 2006 on first and second downs, their efficiency on 3rd down is likely to balance out lower this season.
Jason Garrett - 1st season as offensive coordinator
First, I’m down on the Cowboys because their web site navigation is awful. Not only are their coaches and executive bios based on unlinkable coldfusion and javascript anchor tags, but the scrolling inside those resulting pop-up windows is irksome. They’ll win at least one less game this year because of it, I swear.
Background:
Jason Garrett, a backup QB for the Cowboys from 1993-1999, takes over as offensive coordinator for Dallas. This is the first time ever Garrett will be in charge of an offense, so there’s likely to be a bit of a learning curve this season.
Garrett, a Princeton graduate, seems to be a very good student of the game. He was never particularly talented as a quarterback but managed to hang on to a backup job for many years in the league. After retiring, he served as the Dolphins quaterbacks coach for two years under Nick Saban.
Jerry Jones brought in Garrett before he had a head coach, a move that shows just how much faith the Cowboys’ owner has in the 41 year old.
Philosophy;
Quite simply, Bill Parcells’ offense was boring and predictable. What Garrett and new head coach Wade Phillips have brought to this team is a new, creative outlook that should benefit the skill position players most.
Already through minicamp and the start of training camp, I’ve seen the Cowboys line up receivers in a number of new spots, compared to last season. The one player who’ll likely benefit most from this new offense is tight end Jason Witten. After two straight years of 65 catch, 750 yard seasons, I’d expect Witten’s numbers to approach his 2004 output of 87 catches and 980 yards.
Garrett intends to use a Ernie Zampese style, timing based offense to take advantage of Tony Romo’s ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Garrett will also be calling the plays.
Unlike Parcells, both Philips and Garrett stress the need to move players around the field to get them involved and into positions to make plays.
“It’s about using our personnel,” Phillips said. “That’s No. 1 with me.”When Phillips was in Denver, he knew how to get Shannon Sharpe going in the offense. Sharpe had 1,000 yard seasons in both 1993 and 1994.
Players:
Besides Witten, Terrell Owens should rebound from his hand-injury 2006 season as well. TO only put up 1180 yards in 16 games of action, and had a lot of drops throughout the season.
Terry Glenn’s early season injury troubles could lead to Patrick Crayton playing a bigger role in the offense early on. Crayton excelled last season against Arizona when Glenn was unable to make the road trip to Phoenix.
The running back situation is still a bit of a committee, but based on talent and production alone, I think we’ll continue to see Marion Barber get more chances and Julius Jones less. Jones had double the carries last season, and is more of a boom or bust back who excels between the 20s. Barber, meanwhile, scored 16 total TDs in 2006 despite just 135 carries and 23 receptions. He’s a consistent back who’s entering his third NFL season and should improve his yardage output.
As for Romo, I’m just not sold. Not only does he have to deal with the awful end to his season (and I don’t mean the dropped hold), but he’s just got a lot of pressure on him now as the starter, playing for a new contract, in a new offense. He’s highly athletic, and has that quick release, but when he was putting up good numbers last season, he was still forcing balls into spots that he shouldn’t have been throwing to.
That said, he’s got two great playmakers in Witten and Owens who can offer Romo the ability to continue to force passes into tight spots.
In the end, I think this Cowboys’ defense is going to be a real strong unit, perhaps a top 5 one. And that means the Cowboys will spend less time passing the football and trying to comeback from big leads (where most of passing leaders in the league gain on other teams in total yardage).
One final note for Football Prospectus/Outsiders types, the Cowboys were 2nd best in the league last season in third down efficiency, at 48.8%. Readers of that publication know that given Dallas’ mediocre success in 2006 on first and second downs, their efficiency on 3rd down is likely to balance out lower this season.
Posted in NFL Previews, Offensive Coordinator - 2007, Dallas, Football, General | No Comments »
2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - San Francisco 49ers
Friday, July 13th, 2007
Mike Nolan - 3rd season as head coach
Jim Hostler - 1st season as offensive coordinator, 3rd with team
Background
Hostler is a former small college cornerback who went on to coach at his alma mater for nine seasons before moving over to the NFL in 2000 to become KC’s offensive quality control coach.
After a year with the Chiefs, Hostler spent two seasons with the Saints, under Jim Haslett’s regime, working as their quality control coach and as an assistant to the wide receivers. He then spent 2003 with the Jets, under Herm Edwards, as their QB coach and again in 2004 as the Jets’ WR coach.
Now in his third season with Mike Nolan and the 49ers, Hostler has been working as the QB coach for Alex Smith since the three started work with the team in 2005.
One of the more interesting notes about Hostler is the preparation he has done over the last two years for this opportunity.
Here’s Nolan, as quoted in Hostler’s bio:
Philosophy
Kevin Lynch, of the San Francisco Chronicle ran an excellent overview of how the 49ers offense has changed over the last two seasons and how it is taking shape under Hostler’s leadership.
But make no mistake, this 49ers team is about playing good defense and running the football.
And we can talk about Frank Gore all we want, but this is one of the best offensive lines in the game today. They are a drive blocking unit with a good mix of veteran and young talent.
According to Football Outsiders’ OL stats, SF was second in the league last season in percentage of 10+ yard runs (26%, behind only SD). That success also translated into the third best average yards per rush and the sixth best average rush yards per game in the NFL last season. But the total offense ranked 26th in yards per game, mostly because their passing game was too one-dimmensionally bad. Too many deep drops, not enough reliable receiving options.
George Warhop is entering his third season as Mike Nolan’s offensive line coach. Warhop has 10 years experience specifically working with offensive lines at the NFL level.
Players
The first 49er taken in fantasy drafts will be Gore. But considering how important this OL is to his success, and given his history of injuries at UM, whomever ends up as Gore’s backup with be a valuable pickup as well.
Michael Robinson, the former Penn State QB who plays the game with the toughness of a LB, is the most talented of the backups. But I doubt he’s learned enough about the position to be counted on full time if Gore were to experience any significant injury.
I like Maurice Hicks, but he’s more of a change of pace back. At 5-11, 196 he and Robinson (6-1, 218) would form a solid duo in the absence of Gore; with Robinson seeing the majority of the TDs.
In the passing game, the 49ers will certainly use TE phenom Vernon Davis more in their search to improve on third downs and in the red zone. Davis himself said recently on the NFL Network that he is much more prepared to make an impace this season than he was this time last year.
49er fans should also be excited about the offseason signing of Darrell Jackson. He and Arnaz Battle finally give the team two reliable options out wide. Neither is really a #1 receiver, but both are smart, elusive players who can contribute in this run-oriented offense.
Jim Hostler - 1st season as offensive coordinator, 3rd with team
Background
Hostler is a former small college cornerback who went on to coach at his alma mater for nine seasons before moving over to the NFL in 2000 to become KC’s offensive quality control coach.
After a year with the Chiefs, Hostler spent two seasons with the Saints, under Jim Haslett’s regime, working as their quality control coach and as an assistant to the wide receivers. He then spent 2003 with the Jets, under Herm Edwards, as their QB coach and again in 2004 as the Jets’ WR coach.
Now in his third season with Mike Nolan and the 49ers, Hostler has been working as the QB coach for Alex Smith since the three started work with the team in 2005.
One of the more interesting notes about Hostler is the preparation he has done over the last two years for this opportunity.
Here’s Nolan, as quoted in Hostler’s bio:
“As I interviewed Jim, I was very impressed that he had been creating his own game plans each week the last few years,” Nolan said. “He brought out the game plans that he had been putting together for every game. I never saw them, because all I wanted to see the last two years was our actual coordinator’s game plan, but Jim brought his to me.”Hostler also has a strong work relationship with the team’s new QB coach, Frank Cignetti. Hostler and Cignetti were at IUP together and also worked with the Saints at the same time. Cignetti was brought in to coach the QBs after spending 2006 with John Bunting at UNC as the Tar Heels’ offensive coordinator.
Philosophy
Kevin Lynch, of the San Francisco Chronicle ran an excellent overview of how the 49ers offense has changed over the last two seasons and how it is taking shape under Hostler’s leadership.
Smith said his rookie season (2005) under now-Packers coach Mike McCarthy was about a rigid passing game based on progressions and short quarterback drops.So this season, Hostler is bringing in elements of both offenses Smith has been a part of. With third downs and red zone execution an obvious point of emphasis, the team is trying out new formations (eg, empty backfields) and other innovative ways to get the ball out of Smith’s hands quickly.
“We weren’t throwing the ball downfield; defenses were on top of us,” Smith said Wednesday after the team’s second-to-last practice. “It was like we were the passive ones and (the defenses) were the aggressors.”
Then came Norv Turner, and the offense changed dramatically. “It was the opposite,” Smith said. “We were taking seven-step drops, throwing the ball downfield.”
That offense performed relatively well in the middle of the field on first- and second-down because of the threat of the run. But when the 49ers got inside the opponents’ 20 or needed a third-down conversion, they floundered.
They finished 26th in third-down efficiency and 29th in red-zone production.
But make no mistake, this 49ers team is about playing good defense and running the football.
And we can talk about Frank Gore all we want, but this is one of the best offensive lines in the game today. They are a drive blocking unit with a good mix of veteran and young talent.
According to Football Outsiders’ OL stats, SF was second in the league last season in percentage of 10+ yard runs (26%, behind only SD). That success also translated into the third best average yards per rush and the sixth best average rush yards per game in the NFL last season. But the total offense ranked 26th in yards per game, mostly because their passing game was too one-dimmensionally bad. Too many deep drops, not enough reliable receiving options.
George Warhop is entering his third season as Mike Nolan’s offensive line coach. Warhop has 10 years experience specifically working with offensive lines at the NFL level.
Players
The first 49er taken in fantasy drafts will be Gore. But considering how important this OL is to his success, and given his history of injuries at UM, whomever ends up as Gore’s backup with be a valuable pickup as well.
Michael Robinson, the former Penn State QB who plays the game with the toughness of a LB, is the most talented of the backups. But I doubt he’s learned enough about the position to be counted on full time if Gore were to experience any significant injury.
I like Maurice Hicks, but he’s more of a change of pace back. At 5-11, 196 he and Robinson (6-1, 218) would form a solid duo in the absence of Gore; with Robinson seeing the majority of the TDs.
In the passing game, the 49ers will certainly use TE phenom Vernon Davis more in their search to improve on third downs and in the red zone. Davis himself said recently on the NFL Network that he is much more prepared to make an impace this season than he was this time last year.
49er fans should also be excited about the offseason signing of Darrell Jackson. He and Arnaz Battle finally give the team two reliable options out wide. Neither is really a #1 receiver, but both are smart, elusive players who can contribute in this run-oriented offense.
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2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Index
Thursday, July 12th, 2007
For the third season, the NFL football offensive coordinator previews are back.
After two years of doing this, I’ve learned that it’s nearly impossible to cover all 32 teams before the season starts.
So I’ll continue to focus more on the intriguing situations and new regimes across the NFL.
This post will act as the index for 2007, just as this one did for 2006 and this one for 2005.
I’ll update the team links as the entries are made.
A new category has been added to track them all, available in the top nav under ‘nfl preview‘. Categories for 2007, 2006, and 2005 have also been added.
First up for 2007 are the San Francisco 49ers, due out Friday.
After two years of doing this, I’ve learned that it’s nearly impossible to cover all 32 teams before the season starts.
So I’ll continue to focus more on the intriguing situations and new regimes across the NFL.
This post will act as the index for 2007, just as this one did for 2006 and this one for 2005.
I’ll update the team links as the entries are made.
A new category has been added to track them all, available in the top nav under ‘nfl preview‘. Categories for 2007, 2006, and 2005 have also been added.
First up for 2007 are the San Francisco 49ers, due out Friday.
| AFC | |
| New York Jets | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Miami Dolphins | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| New England Patriots | Cleveland Browns |
| Buffalo Bills | Baltimore Ravens |
| Indianapolis Colts | Oakland Raiders |
| Tennessee Titans | Denver Broncos |
| Houston Texans | Kansas City Cheifs |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | San Diego Chargers |
| NFC | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Chicago Bears |
| Dallas Cowboys | Minnesota Vikings |
| Washington Redskins | Detroit Lions |
| New York Giants | Green Bay Packers |
| Tampa Bay Bucs | Seattle Seahawks |
| Carolina Panthers | Arizona Cardinals |
| Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers |
| New Orleans Saints | St Louis Rams |
Posted in NFL Previews, Offensive Coordinator - 2007, Football, General | No Comments »
2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Jacksonville Jaguars
Thursday, September 7th, 2006-
INDEX
Jack Del Rio - Head Coach, 4th season with JAX
Carl Smith - Offensive Coordinator, 2nd season with JAX
I had this preview all written up before Greg Jones got hurt. And while his loss doesn’t change a whole lot for the Jags, it did for my preview.
Last year’s post has a lot of info on Carl Smith, and all indicators are that he’ll continue to make this a run first, play action strike downfield kind of offense. They probably won’t ever have an 80 catch receiver this way, so the only real fantasy value player will probably come from the running back position.
Fred Taylor has come into camp slimmed down and in shape, and he promises good things to come. There just aren’t too many in the fantasy world who still believe you. ESPN’s live draft results have Taylor going 72nd! Behind Drew Bledsoe. What’s interesting about Taylor’s career is in spite of his reputation, he has shown he can play for a high percentage of a season. It just only happens half the time. In 8 seasons he’s finished 5 with 260 or more carries. 2003 was a 345 carry season. He’s also maintained a 4.0 ypc average for nearly all of his career. So when he plays, he performs: everyone knows that. But he’s 30 years old now.
This was the part of the preview where I talked about how much I like Greg Jones, and how I thought this could be a good season for him to step up for this offense. Instead, I’ll just leave in the last line of the paragraph: There are too many good backs here (Pearman, Toefield, Jones-Drew) and I’m staying away from this mess entirely.
For the rest of the offense, there are genuine concerns about this receiving corps. I don’t see any #1 receiver out of this group. I don’t really see a #2 receiver out of this group. Not yet at least. I got a good laugh out of the recent story that Del Rio is listing three WRs as starters on the depth chart. To me, that’s the same as listing none.
Matt Jones has the chance to be a good vertical target, but he’s shown to be only a perimeter players thus far. Ernest Wilford is tough and has a special skill for making catches in heavy traffic, but he doesn’t have much deep speed and can’t keep defenses honest deep. Reggie Williams is a big, physical receiver who just doesn’t separate well. I don’t know if he’ll ever turn into a NFL regular. He’s looked better this preseason, but the jury is definitely still out there. The best target for this group may just be rookie TE Marcedes Lewis, but he’s been injured for most of the preseason.
After a surprising and somewhat fortunate 12-4 season, the Jags will face a lot of expectations this year that outreach the talent on this team. They have a good, almost great defense, and try to employ a ball control offense that takes occasional shots deep. But the talent just isn’t there. The strength of offensive line is a question mark, and Leftwich’s poor pocket pressense and mobility leaves a few plays unfinished. There are queston marks everywhere, the AFC South is improved, and for all the breaks this team caught last year, I would not be surprised if the Jags fell to 9-7.
One other player that may be worth a look is kicker Josh Scobbee. The third year kicker from Louisiana Tech has a huge leg, but has sturggled to tame it so far. But the ingredients for finding a good fantasy kicker are there: strong leg, good team defense, questionable offense (especially along the line or at RB). Sounds a lot like Neal Rackers from last year. But Scobee has more room to improve in the accuracy category than Rackers did.
Posted in NFL Previews, Offensive Coordinator - 2006, Jacksonville, Football, General | No Comments »
2006 Misc Football Previews - AFC
Sunday, September 3rd, 2006-
INDEX
Much of last year’s preview throught the AFC still holds true for this season. The Bengals, for example, return almost exactly the same offense they’ve put out onto the field the last two full seasons. That kind of continuity will continue to reap huge rewards for Cincinnati, and their defense is just average enough that they’ll win a lot of games, but give up a lot of points too. One thing on Carson Palmer, there’s no way he’s 100%. I’ve watched him run in both of the preseason games he’s played in and it’s good to see him up and running this offense. But Palmer is a very good quarterback outside of the pocket, throwing on the run and buying time on the edge. I don’t know if we’ll see a lot of that early in the season. And I don’t think it’ll effect his throwing too much. There’s no better fantasy quarterback in football than Carson Palmer. (Last Season)
For New England, Josh McDaniels begins his 2nd year as the Pats’ OC and 6th season with the organization. Running the ball was New England’s main weakness on offense last season; leading to the first round selection of RB Laurence Maroney. This preseason, Maroney has looked like a future star running back. It’s not believed that his recent knee injury is significant. I think what Maroney has shown in the last few weeks is a glimpse of what is to come. Corey Dillon turns 32 in late October, and although he said that he can still carry a large role, Maroney is the guy.
Another Patriot worth a fantasy look is tight end Ben Watson. He’s entering his third season, and is not only the Pats most reliable receiver at this point, but he was used heavily in the preseason and looked ready to have a breakout season. Normally, Tom Brady’s receivers don’t make for good fantasy options because the ball gets spread around so much in New England, but since we’re talking about tight end numbers, Watson should have a relatively good season for his position.
Turning in an impressive preseason performance for New England has been WR Bam Childress. The former OSU Buckeye is listed at 5′11 185, but he’s probably more like 5′9 175 and can get thrown around on the field. Still, he’s played tough in the games I’ve seen him in, has good enough hands and is able to adjust the ball pretty well. I expect Brady to connect with Childress out of the slot a number of times this season. Fantasy teams in really deep leagues could steal Bam off of free agency.
For the Pittsburgh Steelers, there’s no place to go but down. Way too much off season drama to deal with. This is exactly how and why teams don’t repeat. They’ll be lucky if they finish above .500. A September 1 trade for former Patriot Patrick Cobbs is worth noting, however. Cobbs is a 5-9, 205 pound back who showed a great burst through the hole this preseason. His running style and short, powerful build leads me to believe he may get a chance to be a short yardage back for Pittsburgh. Other than that, I wouldn’t touch any Steeler player this season.
The same goes for the Tennessee Titans. Apparently, after seven seasons in the NFL, the Titans just now realized that they didn’t want to put up with Billy Volek’s ego and have decided to throw him overboard. The Titans will probably go 4-12 as a result of their mess of a preseason and the whole thing will end up costing Jeff Fisher his job. Oh, and Vince Young will never be as great an NFL quarterback as Jay Cutler or Matt Leinart.
In San Diego, Phillip Rivers is going to make some mistakes, but he’s still a solid QB who can put the ball into tight spots and this is still a good enough offense to make the playoffs. I’m also very impressed with the depth the Chargers have put together at wide receiver. Eric Parker looks like he can be a solid #2 man, while Kassim Osgood’s size and speed combo makes defenses take notice as a third option. Rashuan Woods and Vincent Jackson are both former high draft picks who are still learning the position but have the physical skills to be NFL good players. And it even looks like the 6′5 Malcom Floyd made enough plays in the preseason to keep a job. He could develop into a contributor as well. The Chargers still lack a true #1 WR, but Keenan McCardell is a good 1B kind of wide out and with Antonio Gates playing the de facto role of 1A while defenses focus on he and LT in the backfield, the Chargers have enough players to make this offense work.
One other thing about the Chargers, since Clinton Portis injured his shoulder and ruined my hopes for a huge season (see below), I think of the remaining top 3 RBs available, LT is the guy to have over LJ and Alexander (read the Seattle post for more on Alexander). LJ has to deal with a retired left tackle, a departed offensive coordinator, and Herm Edwards. LT, on the other hand, only has a new QB to deal with, and that may actually lead to a better statistical season for him. But the biggest reason, is the insurance you can get when you draft LT. There may not be another backup running back in the league right now that is better than Michael Turner. The guy is a smallish, but is all power, speed, and vision.
Posted in Tennessee, Offensive Coordinator - 2006, NFL Previews, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Football, Cincinnati, New England, General | No Comments »
2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Buffalo Bills
Sunday, August 20th, 2006-
INDEX
Dick Jauron - Head Coach, 1st season as HC with BUF
Steve Fairchild - Offensive Coordinator, 1st season as OC with BUF
These Bills are going to be bad; they just have no NFL ready quarterback. Unfortunately, they do have one of the best up and coming WRs in Lee Evans and one of the best RB in the league in Willis McGahee. I think if Losman can show maturity this year, next season is going to be a big one for Evans. But as much as I like the former Badger, I wouldn’t touch him this season. McGahee, on the other hand, may be worth an early look.
Here’s a table of the production over the last two seasons of the top running backs on teams that finished the season under .500.
YEAR |
TEAM |
W |
L |
ATT |
YARDS |
YPC |
TD |
2005 |
3 |
13 |
166 |
659 |
3.8 |
0 |
|
6 |
10 |
309 |
1232 |
4.0 |
2 |
||
6 |
10 |
269 |
906 |
3.4 |
3 |
||
4 |
12 |
224 |
851 |
3.8 |
5 |
||
2 |
14 |
230 |
976 |
4.2 |
2 |
||
5 |
11 |
186 |
664 |
3.6 |
5 |
||
4 |
12 |
143 |
582 |
4.1 |
6 |
||
5 |
11 |
325 |
1247 |
3.8 |
5 |
||
4 |
12 |
220 |
775 |
3.3 |
5 |
||
6 |
10 |
156 |
617 |
4.0 |
3 |
||
4 |
12 |
272 |
1025 |
3.8 |
9 |
||
6 |
10 |
254 |
1046 |
4.1 |
8 |
||
5 |
11 |
157 |
451 |
2.9 |
0 |
||
4 |
12 |
127 |
608 |
4.8 |
3 |
||
2004 |
4 |
12 |
199 |
744 |
3.7 |
2 |
|
7 |
9 |
217 |
821 |
3.8 |
6 |
||
5 |
11 |
219 |
926 |
4.2 |
7 |
||
7 |
9 |
302 |
1188 |
3.9 |
13 |
||
5 |
11 |
220 |
1067 |
4.8 |
6 |
||
6 |
10 |
241 |
1133 |
4.7 |
5 |
||
5 |
11 |
240 |
948 |
4.0 |
7 |
||
4 |
12 |
132 |
523 |
4.0 |
6 |
||
6 |
10 |
197 |
819 |
4.2 |
7 |
||
6 |
10 |
322 |
1518 |
4.7 |
13 |
||
6 |
10 |
343 |
1315 |
3.8 |
5 |
||
7 |
9 |
196 |
892 |
4.6 |
14 |
||
5 |
11 |
112 |
425 |
3.8 |
3 |
||
6 |
10 |
267 |
937 |
3.5 |
9 |
||
2 |
14 |
244 |
822 |
3.4 |
7 |
Out of these 29 teams, 12 featured a running back who carried the ball 240 times or more. The average finish for those 11 running backs was: 282 - 1109 - 3.9 - 7. Considering McGahee’s talent, I’d bump those numbers up about 10%, giving him 310 carries, 1220 yards, and almost 8 touchdowns. So it is possible for good backs on bad teams to have successful fantasy seasons. Don’t count on them for 10 touchdowns, but the yards will be there and from what McGahee has shown early this preseason, he’s running lean, fast, and hard. I’d say those projections are solid, ground floor type numbers. He went 325 - 1247 - 5 last season under Mike Mularkey. Now in his fourth NFL season (3rd as starter), and another year removed from his knee injury, 1400 yards is possible.
Tempering those lofty numbers, however, should be Dick Jauron’s coaching record. He’s got a career 36-49 (.423) record, and his offenses have ranked near the bottom of the league in each season. He’s a former defensive back who been coaching on the defensive side of the ball for most of his post-playing career.
OC Steve Fairchild returns to Buffalo after spending his last three years in St Louis as the Rams OC and QB coach. He’s a former college quarterback and actually played under Mike Martz at a community college program. Fairchild has coached on the offensive side of the ball on and off since 1982. He’s got 5 years of experience in the NFL and started out in the league as the Bills RB coach from 2001-02, when Travis Henry was the featured back.
According to this interview that was given last year to the Denver Post, Fairchild seems to have more of a balanced offensive philosophy. He talks there about how the Rams offense was running without Mike Martz and Marc Bulger and there is also a mention of Fairchild’s mentor, Sonny Lubick. The Bills will have to shorten the length of the game this season to be competitive. They have a good defense, and a good back, but their offensive line fell apart in the second half of last season. Everything I see expects me to think that McGahee will get plenty of carries.
Last season preview.
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2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Indianapolis Colts
Saturday, August 19th, 2006-
INDEX
Tony Dungy - Head Coach, 5th season with IND
Tom Moore - Offensive Coordinator, 9th season with IND
Peyton Manning - Quarterback, 9th season with IND
It’s hard to say that Edgerrin James isn’t as good as everyone thinks his is because James is still a very good, all around running back. But to think that this offense can’t go on without him is commentary that ignores the past history and current understanding of this offense.
Since Manning’s rookie season in 1998, the Colts have finished lower than 4th in the NFL in points scored just once. They’ve finished lower than 6th in NFL in total yards just once. Each of those exceptions came in one season, 2002, when Edgerrin tried to play on his repaired knee too early. James presence was a hinderance to the Colts lineup that season, as their running back carried the ball 277 times for a yards per carry average of just 3.6.
That previous season, when James went down after 6 games, Dominic Rhodes filled in well by running for 4.7 yards per carry and ending the season with 1104 yards. Without James, they were fine, but with James at less than full strength, they struggled. Had Rhodes been healthy in 2002, he could have given the team a reliable backup to James as Edgerrin worked to return to form.
So the real question coming into this season is, who will get the Colts’ carries: Rhodes or rookie Joseph Addai? Rhodes has been through a lot since he ran for over 1000 yards in 2001. He’s injury prone, and is a ball security concern. So I don’t think he’ll end up carrying the load. Coach Dungy has a history of splitting time with his backs in Tampa Bay, so it is possible we’ll see a lot of everyone. The Colts should continue to bring Addai along slowly, so he’ll be fresh in December and January when they need him most. Addai never carried the ball over 200 times in college, so wearing him down has to be a concern if Indy gives him significant playing time early in the season. If they do this right, Addai will end up a factor at the season’s most important time. If you can get him relatively cheap, I think Addai is worth holding onto as well.
A big reason James is gone is because the team signed WR Reggie Wayne to a big six year deal. Wayne is 27 and in his 6th NFL season. He’s seen his catch total rise in every season so far: 27 - 49 - 68 - 77 - 83. Meanwhile, the 34 year old Marvin Harrison has seen his catch total decrease in each of the three years since his 143 catch season in 2002. Reggie Wayne is this team’s #1 receiver right now. I also like the depth the Colts have added at TE, to compliment Dallas Clark.
The Colts have seen their win total rise in each of the last 5 seasons. After winning 14 last year, it’ll be hard for that trend to continue. Both the Titans and the Texans have improved themselves, and the Jags will continue to play Indy tough. I’ll venture to say they win 11 games and have to throw the ball a little more to get there. The offensive line worries me a bit, and the Colts game plan has always been lacking in versatility. They’ve been saying for the last few seasons that they would concentrate on their weaknesses - short yardage, predictability, intangibles - but it still looks like the same old Colts team. Peyton Manning is a great quarterback, but he’s relied so much on his work ethic and preparedness that when things have gotten difficult, his performance has been human. This team needs to face as much adversity on the field as they can. They need to go 10-6 or 11-5 again. They need to line up and play a little more than they have before. Fortune cookie of the day: Anything, when relied on too heavily, will be a crutch and keep you from ever walking on your own.
Last season’s write up.
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2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Philadelphia Eagles
Saturday, August 19th, 2006-
INDEX
Andy Reid - Head Coach, 8th season with PHI
Marty Mornhinweg - Offensive Coordinator, 4th season with PHI
Here is a chart of each of the positional leaders in yardage for each season during the Eagles’ Andy Reid era. No names necessary, but consider this chart the best fantasy players at the three main positions: QB, RB, WR. Again, these are just the best individual seasons broken down by year. There have been a lot of factors along the way that have contributed to these low numbers (injuries, loss of starting job, no clear starter in general, TO) but the important thing to note is that no Eagle has put up better fantasy numbers during each of these seasons than the ones listed here:
YEAR |
QB YARDS |
QB YPA |
QB TD |
RB YARDS |
RB YPC |
RB TD |
WR YARDS |
WR YPC |
WR TD |
1276 |
5.6 |
7 |
1273 |
3.9 |
4 |
655 |
13.4 |
4 |
|
3365 |
5.9 |
21 |
344 |
4.4 |
1 |
642 |
11.5 |
7 |
|
3233 |
6.6 |
25 |
604 |
3.6 |
2 |
833 |
13.2 |
8 |
|
2289 |
6.3 |
17 |
1029 |
3.8 |
5 |
798 |
13.3 |
7 |
|
3216 |
6.7 |
16 |
613 |
5.2 |
7 |
575 |
16.0 |
2 |
|
3875 |
8.3 |
31 |
812 |
4.6 |
3 |
1200 |
15.6 |
14 |
|
2507 |
7.0 |
16 |
617 |
4.0 |
3 |
763 |
16.2 |
6 |
So, except for the TO year of 2004, there really isn’t much worth in going after a fantasy Philadelphia Eagles player. We all had good reason for being high on TO and McNabb last year, and the stats for the first half of the season indicated that things would play out well. Obviously they didn’t.
Brad Childress is gone to Minnesota, but this has always been Andy Reid’s offense. They say they’ll be more committed to a 60/40 pass/run split this season, but if there’s one trend that won’t change, it’s distribution of the football. Reid is an excellent offensive football coach, but his fantasy value is very low in my book. Only maybe TE L.J. Smith is worth a spot on a team, simply because of the lowered production expectations the TE position has attached to it.
The WR depth chart has been improved by the additions of Jason Avant and Hank Baskett, but these are still rookie WRs that are playing behind second WR prospect Reggie Brown. They’ll probably do some nice things this season, but I’m more inclined to give this group another year.
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2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Baltimore Ravens
Tuesday, August 15th, 2006-
INDEX
Brian Billick - Head Coach, 8th season with BAL
Jim Fassel - Offensive Coordinator, 3rd season with BAL
I’m pretty sure the Ravens will win the AFC North this year, but I don’t necessarily think their offense is going to be a great one. But with the defense Baltimore will field this season, all the offense has to do is score 17 points a game and they’ll win 12. It’s odd to start an offensive coordinator preview by talking about defense, but of all the Ravens available this year, their defense is the one fantasy player I think is worth owning.
Over the last few years, I’ve been able to snag a team defense that usually ends up available as a free agent. I did okay with Jacksonville as my value defense last season (see last year’s post for previous season summary). Their performance wasn’t the top 3 finish I had pulled off in years prior, but the Jags were at least a top 10 defense and the one thing I did predict (that their pass rush would be greatly improved) came true; as the D went from 17th in sacks in 2004 (with 37) to tied for 3rd last season (with 47).
This year, I’m going to have to pick two defenses because I think this Ravens D is a steal at their ranking in the bottom half of the top 10. (I’m still looking for the one that can be had cheap.) Rex Ryan is in his second year as coordinator and despite a ton of injuries and a terrible offense last season, the Ravens were still able to field a competitive defense. This year, the most immediate improvement will be the new offense that will help keep the defense off the field. And it helps that Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are healthly.
The team signed veteran Trevor Pryce, who can play DE in the 3-4 or 4-3. LB/DE Adalius Thomas is about to become a well known name in the league. 2005 draft pick Dan Cody is healthy, after missing almost all of last season. Plus the return of starters Terrell Suggs, Chris McAlister, Samari Rolle, Kelly Gregg, and Bart Scott. There is versatility all over their roster and they’re going to line players up all over the field. All this is on top of a defense that finished second best in yards per pass attempt last year (5.63), eighth best in yards per rush attempt (3.69), and fifth overall in total yards allowed.
The Ravens defense will cost a relatively high price, but I think unlike most the top 10 D’s out there this year, this one is actually worth it.
There’s been plenty of talk about the old Jamal Lewis being back in action. After watching the Ravens first preseason game this past week, I agree that he’s at least hitting the hole like a running back should do; something I was critical of his game last season. Still, watching Lewis looks a little like watching the post knee injury Edgerrin James. There’s still a lot there to like, but those determined, game breaking runs seem like a long time ago. He’s slimmed down a bit from last year’s weight. He’ll be without a full time full back this season, but the Ravens have a lot of guys at the TE position and even backup Mike Anderson who they’ll use as a lead blocker. Lewis looks like he’ll return to the 4.4 yards per carry player he once was, but I wouldn’t expect anything like his 2003 season again or much over 300 carries this season. 4.4 times 300 equals 1320.
Obviously, the other big story for this offense is Steve McNair and how quickly he can pick up this new system. Jim Fassel’s offenses with the Giants were never very high scoring, so I don’t think that McNair is in the list of top 10 QBs. Fassel runs somewhat of a simplistic but sound gameplan; one that relies heavily on individual execution. He’s a good coach and someone who can lead this offense now that the team, the club, and the city have confidence in their quarterback.
McNair is a highly accurate QB (career completion % at almost 60%), former co-MVP, who is now entering his 12th NFL year. He’ll provide plenty of leadership and wins; two things this team needs much more than a 4000 passing yards season. Derrick Mason and Todd Heap should meet their expected numbers, but the question mark now is what will happen with the team’s #2 WR spot if 2nd year pro Mark Clayton continues to have hamstring problems. If Ashlie Lelie ends up a Raven, things could change very quickly for this offense.
Posted in NFL Previews, Offensive Coordinator - 2006, Baltimore, Football, General | 2 Comments »
2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Washington Redskins
Saturday, August 12th, 2006-
INDEX
Joe Gibbs - Head Coach, 3rd season with WAS (this time)
Al Saunders - Assoc. Head Coach, 1st season with WAS
Joel Bugel - Asst. Head Coach Offense, 3rd season with WAS (this time)
Don Breaux - Offensive Coordinator, 3rd season with WAS (this time)
Topping your draft lists this year should be Clinton Portis and the reason why is Al Saunders. I could write this whole page on Saunders’ stats, but I won’t. Instead, here’s a quick summary of the last seven years of his career.
YEAR |
TEAM |
PASS (yds) |
RUSH (yds) |
TOTAL (yds) |
RB YARDS |
1 (4580) |
5 (2059) |
1 (6639) |
2429 |
||
1 (5492) |
17 (1841) |
1 (7335) |
2189 |
||
| 6 (3863) |
6 (2008) |
4 (5871) |
2169 |
||
12 (3763) |
3 (2378) |
5 (6141) |
2287 |
||
4 (4113) |
15 (1929) |
2 (6024) |
2110 |
||
3 (4633) |
5 (2289) |
1 (6822) |
1938* |
||
5 (4015) |
4 (2382) |
1 (6396) |
2093 |
That’s 4 top ranked finishes for total offensive yards in seven years. No finish worse than 5th in the NFL. Aside from 2004, when Larry Johnson split time with Priest Holmes, the starting running back in these Al Saunders’ offenses has gained NO LESS than a total of 2093 combined yards rushing and receiving.
I once heard that KC’s offense would go an entire season without running the same play from the same formation. That’s a big reason why it’s so hard for defenses to stop this offense. This season, with Mark Brunnel at QB, they’ll run a high tempo offense that takes full advantage of the quickness of their receivers and TE / h-backs, and the decision making skills of their veteran signal caller. While health may be an issue for Brunnel over the course of an entire season, when he’s in there he has this skills to run this offense just fine. Brunnel can still get the football into the tight spots that this offense requires and his leadership and experience will be called upon as he spends his first season learning this complex and ever changing system. The Redskins made a smart move in bringing over Trent Green’s backup in KC, Todd Collins. Should something happen to Brunnel, Collins and not youngster Jason Campbell, will likely come in to take over due to his knowledge of the offense.
If you thought the Skins made the screen pass popular again last year with Santana Moss, wait until you see what they’re going to do this year. Saunders was a huge screen caller in KC and with the eligible receivers he’s got in WAS now, any one is a target - even multiple players are targets on any one play. Saunders also loves to use his personel in all kinds of positions and move them around before the snap. The Redskins made signing Antwaan Randle El a priority this offseason for a reason. Portis is also a guy who can throw the football a little bit. This is going to be a fun team to watch, if you like watching offense.
Back to how this team will run the ball with Portis; the former Bronco running back has lost the additional weight he gained prior to last season. He’ll be quick, lean, and ready for a huge season this year. I’m calling for 1600 rushing yards plus another 500 receiving and close to 20 TDs. To me, he’s the surest thing at the RB position this year. Clinton is in just his 5th NFL year, and won’t turn 25 until September. On top of that, Portis has a backup RB that can be counted on. Ladell Betts is a very solid option behind Portis, can if forced to play full time, Betts could put up 100 yards a game as well.
There is one catch that I’m waiting to see how it unfolds this preseason. Portis has always been a great inside runner but struggled when he first came to Washington and was asked to run outside more often. Saunders likes to get his backs out in space as well, but he does it in a different way than the Skins have done in past seasons. It’ll be interesting to see what happens here, but I’m confident in Portis making the adjustment because I think he’s a perfect mix of Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes: fast, quick, and tough.
Chris Cooley should have learned a lot last season, as he had to work to beat double teams late in the year as one half of the Redskins’ only reliable receiving options. The field will open up for him in 2006, and while he’s not the same kind of player that Tony Gonzalez or Kellen Winslow are (two former Pro Bowl TEs under Saunders), Cooley is smart and he gets open quickly. Matching last year’s total of 71 catches probably won’t happen, but another 700 yards is a solid estimate. Cooley is still a top option in this offense, there are just others around him now too.
What will happen with the rest of the receivers is hard to say. One, there are so many of relatively equal skill that it may end up that not one ever takes over a #1 role. The Chiefs never had a real #1 threat outside and they did just fine. Moss is easily the most talented, and will end up with the most throws going his way. Brandon Lloyd will make some of the most amazing catches you’ll ever see, but he’s the definition of a perimeter player and will be used deep primarily. There’s no reason to expect anything more than 65 catches and 1000 yards from any one player here. Even for Santana Moss. The Redskins will really spread the ball around in this offense, and the main beneficiary will likely be the running back.
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2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - New York Giants
Wednesday, August 9th, 2006-
INDEX
Tom Coughlin - Head Coach, 3rd season with NYG
John Hufnagel - Offensive Coordinator, 3rd season with NYG
In Tom Coughlin’s 8 years in Jacksonville, Coughlin won 4 - 9 - 11 - 11 - 14 - 7 - 6 - 6 games. It is assumed that a hard style like Coughlin’s gives his team a definite lift at first, but then falls off at the end as the roster grows weary of the hardline tactics. Before becoming a head coach in the NFL, Coughlin led Boston College to a 21-13-1 record from 1991-93 - culminating in a 9-3 finish his final season there. This being season three in NY for Tom, good things should be expected after a 6-10 first season finish, and a 11-5 year in 2005.
Also in his third season with the Giants is quarterback Eli Manning. Last year, I previewed Eli’s second season by comparing his progress with his brother’s. Eli’s second season started strong, but fizziled by throwing 15 INTs in his last 9 games. Still, the Giants offense made dramatical improvements in Manning’s first full season as starter. Their rankings went from 22nd in ponts and 23rd in yards during the 2004 season to 3rd best in both categories last season. One cause for concern I saw last season, however, was that Manning continued to make the same mistake of throwing balls up for grabs when under pressure. Manning also threw a lot of balls off his back foot, and I think the blitz really got to him in 2005.
Back to the Peyton - Eli comparisons, in the older Manning’s third season in the NFL, his numbers began to even out.
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Obviously, Eli’s completion percentage has been a big topic of discussion this offseason. I think a big reason for his low number there is attributed to the above mention problem with not stepping into throws all the time, and pushing the ball into spots it shouldn’t go. Note also that Eli’s 43.5 completion percentage inside the opponents 20 yard line last season. The Giants finished 22nd inside the red zone last season, scoring TDs on 45.8% of their chances.
Manning’s offensive line should return all five starters from last season, assuming everyone stays healthy. For a unit that improved the team’s sack total from 29th in 2004, with 52, to 8th last season, with 30, Eli should be more confident in his protection and able to step into more of his throws inside the pocket.
Tiki Barber will again line up behind the QB this season, and under Coughlin Barber has seen his career turn from a good one to a great one. Barber turned 31 this past April, so there is a concern there. And both of his backups this preseason have suffered setbacks: Derrick Ward broke a bone in his foot and Brandon Jacobs was diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat. The Giants may end up signing Mike Cloud or Chad Morton.
Barber had runs of 20+ yards 16 times last season, including a 95 yarder and 4 more 50 yarders. That was a big reason for his 20% increase in rushing yards last season; up to 1860 from 1518 in 2004. His average per carry total last season was 5.2 as well, also much higher than his career numbers ever were (4.6). The final troubling stat from last season is Barber’s 357 carries, a career high. He had 322 in 2004, but before that only went over 300 once - in 2002 with 304. At 31, the carries are catching up on Barber and his yardage total is certain to decline this season.
In eight seasons under Coughlin, the WR duo of Smith and McCardell both gained 1000 yards in four different seasons. In two other seasons, Smith had over 1000 and McCardell registered just under 900 yards. The duo of Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer can play a very similar, if just slightly less talented tag team role this season with the Giants. I wouldn’t expect too much from Sinorice Moss this season, his older brother took three seasons to become a real threat. The younger Moss will see some action, however, as the Giants have added screen and hitch passes to their playbook in order to take advantage of his abilities. Jeremy Shockey’s numbers have been pretty consistent within the type of offense he’s played in over his first four seasons. Another 60+ catch, 800 yard season is likely, but not much more.
On top of everything else for this season’s Giants, their defense will be significantly improved. Or at least, healthy. New York should boast a top team defense and a top ten offense this season inside the toughest division in the NFL.
Posted in NFL Previews, Offensive Coordinator - 2006, New York (N), Football, General |