Archive for the ‘2005 NFL Playoffs’ Category

2005 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl XL - Review

21-10 Steelers


• Continued play design excellence from the Steelers led the way.
  If you had to point to one key play of the game, I believe it came sooner than when most would think:
  Early in the second quarter, after the Steelers had just earned their first first down of the game, they came out with a power formation, with everyone lined up tight, and ran Ward on an end-around to the left. The RG on the play began off the snap to pull out right and then did a 360 spin to run left as the lone lead blocker in front of Ward. This move just helped sell the run to the right just a little more and made the play all more effective. And at the end of the play, Seahawks FS Manuel was injured, forcing Etric Pruitt into the game for the remainder of the night. This injury was probably the most crippling blow the Seahawks could have sustained on defense (see below).

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• Two other key plays:
  3rd and 28, late second quarter, Steelers still down 0-3. On the play before, Winstrom beat his man around the left edge and sacked Ben Berger for a big loss. So on third down, the Seahawks come out with just 3 defensive lineman and drop out into coverage in was looked like a relaxed cover 3 defense. The mistake Seattle made here was just rushing three because Winstrom again beat the Steelers LT around the edge but since there was no rush up the middle, Ben Berger had a huge hole to step into and buy all that time along the line of scrimmage. Either Winstrom should not have taken such a wide angle to the QB (knowing he didn’t have inside help) or Seattle should have put four on the line to limit the QB’s throwing and passing lanes. Ward got open because the Seahawks safety on the opposite side (Boulware) played the QB too much and gave up his position on the opposite side of the field. But Ben just had too much time to sit there on the 39 yard line and let receivers get open. The Seahawks’ ultimate mistake on this play was being too conservative on 3rd and 28 and not rushing more than three. I assume they thought that they’d let Pittsburgh settle for a field goal but clearly championship aren’t made by attempting kicks.
  
  Second play of the second half, with Michaels and Madden announcing that Manuel will not return for the game, the Steelers lined up with 3 wide and hand off right to Parker. Tatupu allows himself to be blocked by the RT 10 yards downfield and by the time the rookie MLB had gotten off this block, Parker was behind him. SS Boulware came up to the line of scrimmage quickly, but he played Parker to the outside and Willie made a nice cut in traffic to run up the middle. He probably saw Tatupu being occupied and knew he had room. And FS Pruitt, playing the off side deep, took a terrible angle on the fast Steelers running back, running in too far and then not being about to recover deep as Parker flew right by him. 14-3 Steelers.

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• Ben Burger is going to face a lot of defenses next season that will beg him to throw the ball deep. He’s shown numerous times this regular season and during the playoffs that he just doesn’t have the arm strength to put a ball over a safety’s head if the coverage is there. That’s one of the reasons the Steelers have been using gadgets to get receivers open down the field. Ben’s limit is probably around 45-50 yards, which isn’t bad, but it’s that extra 10-15 that many NFL QBs can throw that makes all the difference in putting a ball over the top.
  
  The INT he threw to Boulware went 45 yards in the air, from the middle of the field to the sideline. And Ben had time in the pocket and really stepped into that throw. It looked to be pretty much all he had.
  
  On the pass to Ward when Ben ran up to the line of scrimmage and stopped, he threw that ball from the 41 to the 3- again across half the field. Ben didn’t step into that throw, and he almost left it too short and too close to the defender. Ben’s mobility gets in the way a bit too, as he moves too much as he’s throwing to really get good distance.

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• The holding calls: It’s hard to compare what the refs were calling against Seattle and what they were calling against Pittsburgh because the Seahawks’ defensive line uses mostly bull rushes (straight lines) to get to the QB. The Steelers were constantly trying to use their speed on the edges and up the middle gaps to attack. There were two holding calls on Seattle in the first quarter (one was decline because the player being held picked up the sack anyway) and then the big call on Locklear in the fourth.
  
  On that play which took away a Stevens catch at the Steelers’ 1, Haggans had been timing Hasselback’s snap count (QB’s first Super Bowl experience) and he already had a step on Locklear off the line. Locklear hooked the rusher with his arm and, in my opinion, clearly held Haggans on the play. The flag was thrown before the catch was made, so it’s not like the ref was negating a big play by throwing the flag. Earlier, I had been watching the RT - LE matchup on the other side of the ball to see if there were any similar plays between Max Starks and Bryce Fisher. There was some similar holding going on there, but on those plays Fisher never really had the body position advantage that Haggans did on this particular play. The Steelers OLB had speed and the edge and there’s a good chance the Hasselback doesn’t get that throw off unless Locklear holds him. I’ve got no problem with that holding call.

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• There was a nice moment on the sideline after the Randel El touchdown pass. The former Indiana QB was celebrating with his Steelers QB when Ben was said: “Did you see my block?”

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• On that Randel El pass to Ward, it was again Pruitt who could be blamed (at least partially) for allowing Ward to get open deep. It’s impossible to know exactly what the called coverage there was, but Pruitt hit immediately up to the line as Ward ran right past him. Marcus Trufant had outside leverage on Ward and stayed with the Super Bowl MVP the entire time but the route was ran far enough away from the Seahawks CB that he could not catch up in time.
  
  Even in the second quarter, when Manuel first went out, Pruitt got caught looking at the QB too much and was late getting over the top on a pass that went off Ward’s finger tips in the end zone. Although all this picking on Pruitt isn’t really fair, as he was the third string FS for Seattle this season- after they lost Ken Hamlin. But maybe the Seahawks could have done more to protect their inexperienced defender.

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• Randel El was on the two yard line, inside the two hashes at the middle of the field, before he took off to chase down Kelly Herndon on that goal line INT. Randel El basically ran two straight lines to catch Herndon. He ran straight upfield to get ahead of Herndon and then turned almost 90 degrees left to move in for the tackle.

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• Ben Berger made the proper read on that INT; he knew before the snap when Tatupu went out wide to cover Randel El coming out of the back field that he had man coverage. But Ben had pressure in his face from Fisher and couldn’t step in his throw.

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• The Colts have been knocked out of the playoffs by the winners of the last three Super Bowls.

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• Rocky Bernard who pulled up with a hamstring on Herndon’s INT, was also a big loss to Seattle’s defense. I wonder if all the time off the Seahawks had factored into that. The Steelers had been playing elimination games for 8 out of their last 9 weeks while the Seahawks had two byes within 5 weeks.

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• Darrell Jackson did not catch another pass after being called for pass interference in the end zone (which by the way, was also the right call there- Jackson had Hope beat and it was unnecessary for him to even need to reach out his arm.). Jackson had 5 catches in the first quarter and nothing after. But that wasn’t because the Seahawks weren’t throwing at him. Yet for some reason they stopped the 5 yard outs that they opened the game with. Pittsburgh was still giving Seattle’s receivers 10 yards off the ball on most downs. I think the Seahawks just got a little impatient.

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• Seattle had a hard time running wide to either side of the field- even to the left where they were supposed to be the best. Pittsburgh did a great job setting the edge on those outside runs and then filled the middle with tacklers.

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• Late in the third, when the Seahawks started their drive from their own 2 yard line, they put together a very good looking drive before Hasselback was picked off by Taylor. It seemed like as they started that series backed up so far into their own end, their mindset went back to just thinking about getting first downs with each play, and not winning the Super Bowl. They moved the ball down the field by doing the things that you can do against Pittsburgh’s defense: run up the middle, throw into the flats and to tight ends. It’s unfortunate for them that they couldn’t keep that kind of rhythm for the entire game.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl XL - Part II

Continuing on Part I from yesterday, Len Pasquarelli has his 5 early things to look for in Super Bowl XL.
I’m taking his analysis one step further.

2) LenP writes about Seattle’s rush offense versus Pittsburgh’s rush defense.

This prompted me to think, how has Seattle’s run game fared against teams that are in the top half of the NFL in run defense. And vice versa, how has Pittsburgh’s run defense fared against teams that are in the top half of the NFL in run offense.

So, just like yesterday, here’s a table breakdown of their 2005 regular season opponents:



SEATTLE RUSH OFF vs OPP RUSH DEF							PITTSBURGH RUSH DEF vs OPP RUSH OFF
WEEK	OPP	OPP YPG RANK	OPP YPC RANK	YARDS	YPC		WEEK	OPP	OPP YPG RANK	OPP YPC RANK	YARDS	YPC
1	JAX	14	13	97	5.1		1	TEN	23	20	97	4.2
2	ATL	26	31	163	4.8		2	HOU	15	11	113	4.5
3	ARZ	10	16	163	4.4		3	NE	24	30	80	2.7
4	WAS	13	21	119	5.2		4	bye	-	-	-	-
5	STL	28	32	134	4.5		5	SD	9	6	66	3.1
6	HOU	32	30	320	7.6		6	JAX	10	18	93	2.7
7	DAL	15	24	72	3.3		7	CIN	11	9	91	4.8
8	bye	-	-	-	-		8	BAL	21	27	72	2.7
9	ARZ	10	16	208	6.3		9	GB	30	31	65	2.2
10	STL	28	32	174	4.8		10	CLE	25	22	61	3.2
11	SF	18	11	145	4.5		11	BAL	21	27	104	2.7
12	NYG	12	12	127	3.7		12	IND	16	24	127	4.0
13	PHI	21	10	96	2.3		13	CIN	11	9	102	4.1
14	SF	18	11	185	4.6		14	CHI	8	7	83	4.6
15	TEN	22	25	183	5.5		15	MIN	27	19	54	3.2
16	IND	16	28	173	5.8		16	CLE	25	22	55	2.9
17	GB	23	18	98	3.3		17	DET	26	25	105	4.2
AVG	-	19.1	20.6	2457	4.7		AVG	-	18.9	19.2	1368	3.4


The Steelers finished 2005 giving up the 3rd least amount of rushing yards per game and #1 in average yards per rush.

The Seahawks finished 2005 with the 3rd best rushing yards per game average and #2 in average yards per rush.

Their opponents average rankings, according to the above chart, were very similar.

In the 9 games where the Seahawks faced an opponent ranked in the top half of the NFL in rushing defense, they totaled 1212 yards or 134.7 yards per game. The average of their average yards per carry in those 9 games was 4.38. Impressive.

In the 6 games where the Steelers faced an opponent ranked in the top half of the NFL in rushing offense, they gave up 548 yards or 91.3 yards per game. The average of their average yards per carry allowed in those 6 games was 3.97. Not as impressive.

What’s interesting is that the Steelers did not face many west coast derived offenses this season. They had Norm Chow and Tennessee in week one, Green Bay in week nine, and Detroit in week 16. Yet none of those opponents provide us a fair comparison to Seattle, and not just because they are inferior offenses, but because two of the three games took place on the season’s opening and ending weeks.

On Seattle’s side of the ball, they also did not face many 3-4 style defenses this season. They played the 49ers in week 10 and week 14, rushing for 4.5 and 4.6 yards per carry each time. But the 49ers weren’t a real 3-4 this year nor were they very good. There’s, of course, the Dallas game that is getting a lot of press right now because the Cowboys were really the only true 3-4 team that Seattle faced. But take into consideration a couple of other games:

Week 13 against the Eagles: Philly plays an aggressive style and while they usually have 4 down linemen, they also use their secondary and linebackers a lot like the Steelers do. The Eagles held Seattle to 2.3 yards per carry in that game.

Week nine against the Cardinals: As the season went along, Arizona went back to a more aggressive style that can also be compared to Pittsburgh in terms of scheme (but not talent). In particular, the Cardinals’ use of SS Adrian Wilson near the line of scrimmage after their week 6 bye mimics a lot of what Pittsburgh does with Troy Polamalu. The week 9 game between SEA and ARZ may be something to look at in terms of Seattle’s passing offense, but the 208 yards that the Seahawks put up on the ground in that game don’t really tell us much. The Cards’ front seven was missing several starters.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl XL -Part I

Fantastic preview of Super Bowl XL from Len Paquarelli. In it, he puts forth 5 talking points. Below, is part one of a series this week where I look to take each of his five points one step further.

1) LenP writes: Both teams do not turn the ball over.

During the regular season, the Steelers lost 9 fumbles and threw 14 INTs. They also recovered 15 of their opponents’ fumbles and picked off 15 passes for a turnover total of +7. That was good for 9th best in the NFL, tied with Tampa Bay.

The Seahawks finished the regular season ranked 7th best in turnover ratio, with a +10 rating. They lost fumbles 7 times, threw 10 INTs and recover 11 fumbles and 16 INTs.

I had a feeling that based on the styles these two defenses play, that Seattle was more likely to have achieved a high number of its turnovers against teams who were more likely to make mistakes; while in contrast Pittsburgh’s defensive style is more likely to force turnovers on their own.

So here’s what happens when we break the results from this season down:



SEATTLE 2005							PITTSBURGH 2005
WEEK	OPP	OPP T/O RANK	T/O’s GIVEN	T/O’s FORCED	T/O RATIO		WEEK	OPP	OPP T/O RANK	T/O’s GIVEN	T/O’s FORCED	T/O RATIO
1	JAX	6	5	0	-5		1	TEN	20t	0	4	+4
2	ATL	17	1	0	-1		2	HOU	25t	0	1	+1
3	ARZ	30	0	2	+2		3	NE	20t	1	3	+2
4	WAS	14t	0	1	+1		4	bye	-	-	-	-
5	STL	28t	0	2	+2		5	SD	25t	1	2	+1
6	HOU	25t	1	0	-1		6	JAX	6	4	1	-3
7	DAL	19	3	2	-1		7	CIN	1	2	2	0
8	bye	-	-	-	-		8	BAL	28t	2	3	+1
9	ARZ	30	0	4	+4		9	GB	31t	1	3	+2
10	STL	28t	2	2	0		10	CLE	23t	0	2	+2
11	SF	27	0	1	+1		11	BAL	28t	1	1	0
12	NYG	4t	2	1	-1		12	IND	4t	2	1	-1
13	PHI	23t	0	6	+6		13	CIN	1	4	0	-4
14	SF	27	1	2	+1		14	CHI	11	0	0	0
15	TEN	20t	0	0	0		15	MIN	12	1	3	+2
16	IND	4t	0	1	+1		16	CLE	23t	1	1	0
17	GB	31t	2	3	+1		17	DET	14t	2	2	0
AVG	-	20.8	17	27	+10		AVG	-	17	22	29	+7



I know you can’t control who you play, and Seattle has taken grief for coming out of the NFC West, but only 4 times this regular season did they face an opponent who ranked in the top half of the NFL’s turnover ratio table. In those 4 games, the Seahawks gave away 7 turnovers and forced 3. Pittsburgh played 7 games against opponents in the top half of the NFL’s turnover ratio table. The Steelers gave away 15 and forced 9.

So based on a per game average when facing opponents in this top tier (16), Seattle averaged 1.75 turnovers and forced 0.75 for a -1 per game rating.

Pittsburgh averaged 2.14 turnovers and forced 1.29 for a -0.86 per game rating. That’s a slightly better number overall and it does just barely support my off-hand theory that Seattle’s defense picks up turnovers on a higher rate against teams that are mroe mistake prone.

When you also look at a team by team list of the 16 INTs Seattle picked up this season, they got:
4 ARZ, 4 PHI, 2 STL, 2 DAL, 1 NYG, 1 SF, 1 GB, 1 WAS

Broken down by quarterback:



QB	INT	TOTAL INT	QB RATING
Warner	3	9	85.8
McCown	1	11	74.9
Detmer	2	3	45.1
McMahon	2	8	55.2
Bulger	2	9	94.4
Bledsoe	2	17	83.7
Manning, E	1	17	75.9
Smith, A	1	11	40.8
Favre	1	29	70.9
Brunell	1	10	85.9



Ben Burger played 12 regular season games in 2005. He threw 17 TDs and just 9 INTs and finished with a QB Rating of 98.6. That rating was third best, behind Manning and Palmer, among all NFL QBs who played in at least 6 games.

Week 20 Notes

• Super Bowl:

  Roethlisberger has a chance to become the youngest QB in history to win a Super Bowl at the ripe age of 23 years, 340 days. He is the second youngest to make it to the Super Bowl, trailing only Dan Marino , who 23 years, 127 when he led the Dolphins to the Super Bowl in ‘84. “It is a growing up process,” Roethlisberger said. “This year, I feel a lot older. I’m more comfortable and not run down.”

• Excellent note about Chris Chambers for fantasy footballers looking to ride the Dolphins’ receiver’s second half surge into the 2006 season:

  The two players most affected by the departure of Linehan are QB Gus Frerotte, who was a perfect fit for Linehan’s system but may not have much value in another offense, and WR Chris Chambers, who emerged as a Pro Bowl receiver in Linehan’s system but who is a learn-by-example guy who takes time to learn a new system.

• More ‘06 fantasy news, Larry Johnson has been told that he will enter next season as the featured back.
• Kevin Jones owners will like to hear this:

  [OLT Jeff] Backus criticized soft and swift practice sessions under previous coaches in Detroit and should appreciate Marinelli’s commitment to a more physical, disciplined offense. The beneficiary of the rebuilt line is RB Kevin Jones, who can be expected to get more opportunities under Marinelli, a believer in building around a featured back.

• How likely is it that the NFL may end up with a salary cap for coaches? David Elfin in the Washington Times writes:

  Some owners say clubs like the Redskins have a competitive advantage because they generate high revenue from sources like local broadcast rights, stadium signage and skyboxes that are not pooled and divided among all the league’s teams.
  
  Owners of low-revenue teams have been pushing for more of that money to be pooled….
  
  Tagliabue also said players want a share of the revenue Redskins owner Dan Snyder is paying coaches.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Divisional Playoffs

Divisional Weekend

This is a strange weekend of playoff football. Normally, I’d want to look at as much into these games that I could. But something about this week of preparation was different. I really see both the Seahawks and the Colts as special teams this year, and there’s realy such little chance that either one of them will not be playing for a conference championship next week.

Then there’s the Carolina / Bears game that is so evenly matched, it’s almost impossible to find an edge between the two teams. The Bears quarterback has played so few downs in the NFL, no one really knows what to think of him. And I believe that is what will do the Panthers in.

Divisional Round home teams are 15-5 since 2000.

Gil Brandt has more of these kinds of facts:

Under the current playoff format, the top seed in the NFC never has lost its divisional round game: 15-0. The first seed in the AFC is 10-5 in this round.

Overall, the NFC teams that have had a bye are 27-3 in this round; AFC teams coming off the bye are 22-8.

Since 2000, the team that scores first in NFC divisional round games is 9-1; the team that scores first in the AFC is 7-3.

And finally:

Since 2000, there have been eight instances when teams that faced each other once in the regular season played a rematch in the divisional playoffs. In those games, the teams that won the regular-season meetings are a combined 8-0 in the playoff rematch. (Note: This does not include three times when teams squared off twice in the regular season and then a third time in the playoffs.)

So for Saturday’s game, a couple of quotes from this week caught my attention:

Shaun Alexander, on their Week 4 loss in Washington:

We realized what it takes to beat good teams…I think after that we changed some things that are going to make us better for the long haul. That was an eye-opner game for us, and from then on we swtiched some things and changed some things to make us better.

And Deion Branch, when asked on how he’s approached facing a talented Broncos’ secondary:

The Colts did a great job this with in giving us an extensive game plan.

The Patriots are 6-0 when rematching within the same year against an opponent they previously lost to. That said, I don’t think the Patriots aren’t going to be able to run the ball very well. Denver will be able to play the run with 7 and road teams in the playoffs don’t win road games by throwing the ball 40 times.

Tom Brady’s home passer rating this season was 103.6. On the road, it was 83.6. He threw 2 INTs at home all season and 12 INTs on the road.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Pittsburgh at Indianapolis - Part II: Resting Your Starters

Divisional Weekend

After losing 17-26 to San Diego on 12.18.06, the majority of the Colts’ offensive starters played in just two series the following week at Seattle and one series in week 17 vs Arizona.

Over the course of the last month, Peyton Manning has completed 10 of 14 passes for 121 yards. Edgerrin James has run the ball 13 times for 41 yards, Marvin Harrison has had 2 passes thrown to him, both completed, for 19 yards. Reggie Wayne has seen 5 passes go his way for 2 completions and 21 yards.

So it is a valid, and quite common, question to ask: how will this layoff affect the Colts?

First of all, consider that this preseason, the Colts were 0-5 and were outscored 72-145; including a 0-38 route at Cincinnati in their final preseason game. But then in the season opener on 09.11.06 at Baltimore, the Colts came up with a 24-7 win.

A closer look at the first half of that contest shows that their offense did in fact come out a little rusty. They had 5 first half possessions, all starting in their own territory. 36 total plays, 177 yards, 5.4 yards per play. They punted 3 times, turned the ball over on downs on a 4th and 1 from the BAL 34, and kicked a field goal from the BAL 2.

Things opened up in the second half, as the Colts put together long touchdown drives on 2 of their 3 possessions in the third quarter, but there’s nothing to take away from this game to think that Indianapolis’ offense won’t start without at least a little rust to dust off against Pittsburgh.

The 2004 Eagles famously rested their starters down the final stretch of that season. They lost 7-20 in week 16 at St. Louis and 10-38 in week 17 vs Cincinnati before getting a first round playoff bye.

Then, in their Divisional Game against Minnesota, the Eagles jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and a 21-7 halftime lead. They had 53 yards rushing and 209 yards passing in that first half, including two drives of 92 yards. Not much rust there.

The 2004 and 2003 Patriots not only won their final regular season games, but they played their starters throughout.

The 2002 Eagles finsihed their regular season without Donovan McNabb or Brian Westbrook and still managed to beat the Falcons 20-6 at home in the Divisional Round matchup. McNabb had missed the team’s final 6 regular season games that season and they also had a playoff bye week to get their QB healthy. Philly scored 14 first quarter points against the Falcons and were up 14-6 at the half.

That same season, the ‘02 Bucs rested Brad Johnson for their final two regular season games, but still came out in the Wild Card round and destroyed the 49ers 31-6.

Those are about the only comparisons I can find, going back to the 2002 season. My impression so far is that the Colts will waste most of the first quarter finding their way, but then eventually begin to pull away. One thing that seems consistent across all of these comparisons, is that having a rested, healthy, and prepared defense is the greatest benefit of having a month off than anything else. Look for the Colts defense to keep them in the game early.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Pittsburgh at Indianapolis - Part I: Looking Back to Week 12

Divisional Weekend

In the absence of a copy of the game tape from the Week 12 Monday Night Game between these two teams, there is at least the nfl.com gamebook.

So on the heels of this weeks’ earlier comments from John Clayton stating that the Colts’ Monday Night win wasn’t as nearly as dominant as it may have seemed in hindsight, what can we expect to see in this week’s rematch?

First off, the Steelers’ offense has certainly looked impressive over the last few weeks. And when considering that two of the Colts’ biggest run defenders are coming off injuries, it looks like both teams are going to be able to put up points in this game.

The pressure is really on the Colts to scratch off any rust that may have accumulated over the last month of meaningless and non-existent games. They are a team that places a high emphasis on playing with the lead, rushing the QB, and turning their opponents desperate mistakes into turnovers.
1. Looking back at the Week 13 game, the Colts were:
   
2. 1/3 red zone
   
3. kicked 4 field goals while scoring just 2 touchdowns
   
4. committed 12 penalties for 106 yards
   
5. had 5 possessions that ended in punts

Looking further, after a successful first quarter on offense, things seemed to slow down for Indianapolis.

Second Quarter
Rushing	Passing
5 attempts - 23 yards (4.6)	10 attempts - 58 yards (5.8)


IND benefited with starting field position from the PIT 36 and 45 to pick up two FGs



Third Quarter
Rushing	Passing
9 attempts - 30 yards (3.3)	9 attempts - 54 yards (6.0)


IND benefited from the PIT failed onside kick to start the second half.
They got the ball at the PIT 37 to start.

There was one drive that the Colts did have start with the ball on their own 20.
They spent 12 plays to go just 43 yards and punted.
And they weren’t necessarily running out the clock yet. They ran 5 times and passed 6.
The score was just 13-7.



Fourth Quarter
Rushing	Passing
10 attempts - 44 yards (4.4)	2 attempts - 3 yards (1.5)


Again the Colts were given good field position, starting on the PIT 36 and gaining 26 yards on 7 straight runs to help run out the clock.

In total, the Colts had 12 possessions on this night.
2 for TD, 4 FG, 5 punts, and one INT.
They ended the game with their average starting field position at their own 35.75.
On their 6 scoring drives, their average starting field position was the PIT 48.3.

…More coming this week.

Week 18 Notes

Playoff related notes:


• The Colts are concerned about Corey Simon’s health and weight. Don’t look for him to be 100%, at least for the Steelers game.
• Tom Brady feels his offense has a lot of room to improve, despite their blowout win over Jacksonville.
• A good note here from Len Pasquarelli:

  For a second consecutive week, Washington’s regular cycle will be disrupted, since the Redskins play a second straight Saturday contest. Plus, the Redskins will have to make a long flight to the Pacific Northwest, never an easy trip. Seattle won all eight games this season at Qwest Field and the Seahawks are now 24-10 at home since the stadium opened in 2002. The home field, from a scoring standout, has been worth about a touchdown more per game for the Seahawks. Seattle lost its only playoff game at Qwest Field, losing last year to the Rams.

• John Clayton does his research too:

  Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau did have an impact on the Colts’ offense. Even though he didn’t beat the Colts, he frustrated them at times. After giving up 10 points in the first two possessions, the Steelers’ defense settled into a nickel approach that used only two defensive linemen. This may be a small lineup, but it gives the Steelers more speed and more coverage options than they normally have in the 3-4. Several times during the game, Manning struggled to find open receivers down field. Occasionally, he came to the bench frustrated. Reggie Wayne came to the sidelines upset that he couldn’t get the ball. Even though the Colts dominated in a 19-point win, the Colts couldn’t put the ball in the end zone, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns on a number of drives. The Colts had 59 offensive plays in that game. They had 366 total yards, but only 286 yards after their 80-yard touchdown pass. The Colts have one of the most efficient offenses in years. The Colts usually get 10 possessions which Manning turns into four touchdown drives. But the Steelers played them well in the red zone. The Colts have had an extra week to look at what happened and try to find ways to beat the Steelers.

• “It had yet to be determined at this writing whether or not the Seahawks would start Kelly Herndon or Andre Dyson at left corner against the Redskins this Saturday, but we hear the team was leaning toward Herndon, who recovered enough from a late-season knee injury to see action in Week 17 but did not start.” (PFW)
• “We hear that Patriots RB Corey Dillon’s leg injuries have limited his effectiveness to such a degree that it has led New England to use its spread offense — with scatback Kevin Faulk as the lone running back — more often.” (PFW)

Non-playoff related notes:


• Gary Kubiak would be a great fit in Houston as their next head coach. I noted back in late October that what little success the Texans’ offense was having earlier in the year, it was when running plays similar to the style that Denver has used with Plummer. Dominick Davis would be a great fit in the Shanahan/Kubiak scheme that has been in place in Denver over the last few seasons. And even if the Texans end up with Reggie Bush, his versatility is a perfect fit for this modified Denver style offense. And, of course, there’s David Carr; a QB who possesses similar outside the pocket skills as Jake Plummer. One of the other things that Denver has done well is evaluate and train their offensive linemen; something that the Texans are in desperate need of. Kubiak in Houston just looks like a real good fit.
• “While there’s no doubt junior USC RB Lendale White earned himself some money with a stellar Rose Bowl performance (20 carries for 124 yards and three TDs) should he decide to declare his eligibility for the draft, we hear there are still some real concerns about his character that could have a bearing on where he’s picked” (PFW)

2005 NFL Playoffs - Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Game Notes

Wild Card Weekend


• There’s no mystery to this game. It’s Colts vs Pats Lite.
  These two teams know each other so well by now, that there’s nothing we don’t already know that is going to decide the winner of this game.
• That said, I do like the Bengals here as they are back in to playing the underdog role. Listening to Marvin Lewis this week leads me to believe he’s been playing that up as much as anything else.
• So how well can the Bengals’ defense stop the run on Sunday? Well, before getting torched by Larry Johnson for 201 yards in week 17, the Bengals’ run defense was actually improving.
  Week 16- Held Buffalo to 67 yards on 25 attempts (2.7 ypc)
  Week 15- Held Detroit to 59 yards on 17 attempts (3.5 ypc)
  Week 14- Held Cleveland to 84 yards on 26 attempts (3.2 ypc)
  Week 13- Held Pittsburgh to 95 yards on 28 attempts (3.4 ypc)
  In total, that’s 96 carries, 305 yards, 3.2 ypc over 4 games.
  Per game, that would be 24 carries, 76.25 yards.
• Carson Palmer is the 4th QB this weekend who is starting in his first career playoff game. On Saturday, first time playoff QBs were 0-2 and if the Giants lose they will be 0-3. And out of the names: Simms, Leftwich, E. Manning, Palmer; if I had to chose one QB to start I’d take Palmer.
• The Steelers under Bill Cowher have never won a road playoff game, according to covers.com.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Carolina at New York - Game Notes

Wild Card Weekend


• What makes this game so difficult to analyze is that it’s a matchup of one very inexperienced team (NYG) and one very inconsistent team (CAR). No one is quite sure which will show up for either side.
• Tom Coughlin has a career 4-4 record in the playoffs, all with Jacksonville. As a wild card entry, the Jags in 1996 won 2 straight road games before losing 6-20 at NE. Coughlin was also on the winning side of that Jacksonville team that beat the Dolphins 62-7 in a 1999 Divsional game.
• John Fox, a former Giants’ defensive coordinator, is 3-1 in the playoffs; all coming in the Panthers’ 2003 Super Bowl run.
• A note that may or may not be of interest, Peyton Manning led the Colts to the playoffs in his second year in the league. Indianapolis lost a home Divisional game 16-19 to the Tennessee Titans.
• For injuries, most of the concern is on the Giants’ side of the ball. They list LB Antonio Pierce, DE Eric Moore, and DT Fred Robbins all as out. LB Carlos Emmens is on the IR. WR and special teams player Tim Carter is questionable, as is LB Reggie Torbor. William Joseph and Jeremy Shockey are expected to play. The one place these losses will most be felt is on special teams.
• The Panthers two major issues, Morgan and Foster, both like they will be okay to play on Sunday.
• Panthers RT Jordan Gross gets to face Julius Peppers every week, so he does have the experience to hold up against Michael Strahan. He’s also done a good job against Patrick Kerney this season (8 combined tackles, no sacks). On the other side of the line, LT Travelle Wharton held Simeon Rice tackle less in 2 games this season. In fact, I had to look at Rice’s individual player log to make sure he even played because he didn’t make the boxscore in either game.
• So if Osi Umenyiora thinks the Giants have the best DE tandem in the league, he better be sure of which team has the best OT tandem in the league too.
• One of the reasons I like Carolina in this game is because they have the best trio of CBs in the league. At 6-0, 205, Ken Lucas is big and physical enough to play the Panthers’ style of bump coverage off the line against Plaxico Burress. Chris Gamble is another 200 lbs CB, and while he’s not as physical as Lucas is, there isn’t anyone in the league with better ball skills than Gamble. Nickel Back, Ricky Mannning, Jr is undersized at 5-8 185, but as he proved a couple of years ago in the playoffs against the Rams, the guy plays big in big games. There’s also rookie Thomas Davis who is a perfect fit to matchup against Jeremy Shockey.
• The Giants were torched by Santana Moss two weeks ago because they provided their corners with little or no safety help. Will Allen and Curtis Deloatch were both made to look inadequate against Santana Moss. Panthers’ WR Steve Smith is a very similar player to Moss and if the Giants don’t help out their overmatch CBs, Smith will hurt them just like Moss did. The Giants corners are more suited to play the underneath zone in a cover two but it doesn’t seem like their safeties can be trusted to take away the deep halves so New York is stuck between picking the lessor of two weaknessess.
• Let’s look at Tiki Barber. On 357 carries this season, Barber finished with 1860 yards and a 5.2 ypc average. Here’s a game by game breakdown who he picked up those yards against:
  
  

  WEEK	ATT	YARDS	YPC	TD	OPPONENT	OPP RUSH AVG	OPP YPC AVG
  1	13	62	4.8	1	ARZ	10	16
  2	22	83	3.8	1	@NO	27	26
  3	15	60	4.0	0	@SD	1	3
  4	24	128	5.3	1	STL	28	32
  6	14	62	4.6	0	@DAL	15	24
  7	19	86	4.5	1	DEN	2	15
  8	24	206	8.6	1	WAS	13	21
  9	21	71	3.4	0	@SF	18	11
  10	23	95	4.1	1	MIN	19	17
  11	21	112	5.3	0	PHI	21	10
  12	26	151	5.8	0	@SEA	5	5
  13	30	115	3.8	0	DAL	15	24
  14	32	124	3.9	0	@PHI	21	10
  15	29	220	7.6	2	KC	7	20
  16	16	80	5.0	0	@WAS	13	21
  17	28	203	7.3	1	@OAK	25	19

  
  The average ranking of Giants’ opponents this season against the run was 15 (ypgame) and 17.1 (ypcarry). But when I look at the teams Barber feasted on this year, only the week 12 game at Seattle stands out to me as somewhat impressive. I’m not saying Barber didn’t have a great year, he’s a good back, but the true test for him and the Giants’ offensive line will come on Sunday when they face the 4th best run defense (statistically) in the league.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Washington at Tampa Bay - Part II: Notes

Wild Card Weekend


• Both of these defenses are very different groups than the ones that gave up 71 points on 11.13.05. The low scoring game I thought would happen back then should finally happen this time.
• In their first meeting this year, the Bucs blitzed a lot more than usual on defense in order to protect their banged up secondary and linebackers. Now, they are relatively healthy and should be able to play more to their own strengths; rather than their weaknesses.
• On the flipside, the Redskins are the team that comes into this game with injuries. They normally play a pressure style, but how effective they will be in this game at bringing pressure with their front four will be more important than ever. For a team that is used to blitzing, Washington may have to do some things they aren’t used to in order to maintain pressure and protect their secondary.
• Washington’s defense ranks 9th overall in yards per game, but they are 21st in average gain per rush. Much of their success has come against the pass, where they are 5th in the NFL in average gain per pass play. Yet, they will probably be without Shawn Springs on Saturday. Rookie Carlos Rogers hasn’t played in three games, although he’s expected to be available against the Bucs.
• The Redskins love to substitute their entire defensive line on third and long downs. If the Bucs have done their research, they could use a draw play or screen pass to Pittman a couple of times to pick up a key first down.
• The top improvement of this year’s Bucs’ defense has been its play against the run:

  The Bucs, who signed nose tackle Chris Hovan before this season, allowed seven fewer runs of 20 or more yards than last season. The longest run allowed was 31 - to the Redskins’ Clinton Portis - whereas the Bucs allowed four runs longer than that a year ago.

• There’s every truth to the commonly discussed difference in Clinton Portis running a power run (sweeping linemen) versus and zone stretch. I bet if someone were actually charting his 10+ yard runs this year, at least 80% would have come from the zone stretch runs. Expect the Redskins to continue to use more of these plays because of Portis’ effectiveness but also because 42 year old Ray Brown is replacing Randy Thomas at RG.
• Inside the Red Zone, the Skins had the league’s 4th best offense this year. They converted 30 of 47 trips inside the 20 for TDs (63.8%) and 40/47 (85.1%) for points. But a look inside the stats shows that they can struggle to get the ball into the end zone on the ground. 9 of Portis’ 11 rushing TDs this year came in the red zone. Betts and Cartwright combined for 3 more RZ rushing TDs. On the receiving side, Moss had 2, Cooley- 6, Royal- 1, Betts- 1, and Sellers- 7. That’s 17 RZ passing TDs compared to 14 rushing. The Skins have shown excellent balance on offense inside the 20, but in the games I’ve reviewed recently, they could be in trouble if the Bucs respect their TEs and FBs out of the backfield.
• The Skins are essentially a 2 receiver team: Moss and Cooley. That will help the Bucs because Brian Kelly has been struggling in coverage lately.
• The stats say that Washington had the 6th best opponents kickoff return average in the NFL this season. But in the last 3 games I watched, vs DAL, vs NYG, at PHI, their kickoffs consistently landed at the 10 and were returned to the 35 or 40. Michael Pittman averaged 28.3 yards in three returns in his KOR debut last week. Look for him to make an impact against Washington.
• Because this is a home game for Tampa Bay, their offensive line (a unit that has been together all season long) will be allowed to make those all-important checks at the line against a Redskins defense that like to show a variety of looks on third downs.
• The Bucs run on first down more than any other team I’ve consistently watched this year. They must throw in some different looks in order to stay out of third and longs against Washington..
• When Simms first started in place of Griese, Coach Gruden gave him essentially the same offense to run and the results were, well, back to back losses to SF and CAR. After those games, Coach Gruden used more max protect schemes to give his QB time to work himself into the game. The Bucs’ offense improved and they won their next 2 games. But over the last few games, Tampa Bay has weaned Simms off those max protections and they have been running their more traditional offense. They couldn’t adjust in NE when the Pats were able to get pressure and how they react to what Redskins bring will be important. Being at home will help.
• Ever since the days that Warren Sapp roamed the sidelines in Tampa Bay, he always used to say that if the Bucs score 17 points, they will win. Well, this season, the Bucs were 10-0 when scoring 17+ points. They were 1-5 when scoring less than 17.

2005 Playoffs - Washington at Tampa Bay - Part I: Breaking Down the Moss Screen Play

Off the snap, the tightend (Cooley) fires out to get to the CB.
The OT also fires out and leaves the DE unblocked. This should be the read for the entire defense and that DE is the key to disrupting this play before it gets into the second level.
The OG and C block down strong side briefly and then release laterally as the ball in the air. Once the catch is made, they are in position to turn upfield and lead the play.



What makes it such a difficult play to defense is that it works best on passing downs like 2nd and 10 or 1st and 15. When the defense thinks pass and then sees the QB drop back, their instinct is to get downfield. But Brunnel gives the play away right off the snap and in order to defense this play, both the DE on the side of the play and the backside OLB have to make proper reads.



Once the pass is completed, the receiver (Moss) has to take a step inside to gather himself and set up the blocks. If the DE reads the play poorly, and rushes the QB, he still has a good chance to break the play up by getting into the passing lane and batting the pass or forcing the ball to be thrown outside or inside the proper lane. If the DE properly reads the screen off the ball (free release from the OT), he can turn back to the sideline and get to the WR as the ball is arriving. It’s the one step in that the WR takes that gives the DE a window to make the play. But that’s all there is because if the DE is a step late, the WR is gone and it’s now up to the backside OLB or someone else to get off their block.

What makes the backside OLB so important on this play is that he’s coming from far enough away to take a proper angle through the blockers and get to the second hole of the linemen. The backside CB is too far away, and the backside safety does not have a good angle and should instead be backing the the other safety.



When you have a shifty player who reads his blocks as well as Moss, this play is so hard to beat. But if there’s a team that can do it, it’s one that features athletic ends on each side of the line and smart, fast linebackers.

Full game breakdown coming next…

2005 Playoffs - Jacksonville at New England - Part III: Jags vs 3-4

Wild Card Weekend

Jacksonville played 4 teams this year who play primarily a 3-4 defense: PIT, HOU (twice), CLE, and SF.
I left out the Jets because 1) their scheme varies 2) I don’t have game film from week 3 to look back on and 3) there’s enough teams on this list drafting in the top 5.



	3rd DOWNS	RUSHING	PASSING	SACKED	RED ZONE
@PIT	7/19	35-93	19/35-153-1	3-24	2/3
HOU	6/12	27-98	19/25-214-0	2-4	3/3
@CLE	5/13	36-135	11/20-102-1	3-14	2/4
SF	6/17	35-134	21/40-202-0	2-14	1/3
@HOU	5/11	33-172	18/31-276-0	3-16	4/5
TOTALS	29/72	166-632	88/151-947-2	13-72	12/18
AVERAGE	40.3%	33-126 (3.8ypc)	18/30-189-0.4	2.6-14.4	66.7%



When you take out the two games vs Houston, I really think you can get a good idea of what to expect from Jacksonville against the Pats’ defense.

They will look to run the ball 30-35 times and average less than 3.5 yards a carry. And Leftwich will probably throw about 30 passess and complete just over half of them. He’s probably going to throw 1 INT and it’ll be very interesting to see what portion of the field he throws it on.

The game against Cleveland looks telling because it came against a similarly coached defense (Crennel), but remember that Greg Jones and David Garrard both started that game.

Nonetheless, it’s really hard to imagine the Jags scoring more than 20 points against the Pats. My guess is they get 13.

2005 Playoffs - Jacksonville at New England - Part II: Jags’ Red Zone

Wild Card Weekend

Jacksonville went 6-2 on the road this year. Here’s who they’ve played when away from home:



OPPONENT	OVERALL	HOME RECORD
IND	14-2	7-1
NYJ	4-12	4-4
PIT	11-5	5-3
STL	5-10	3-5
TEN	4-12	3-5
ARZ	5-11	3-5
CLE	6-10	4-4
HOU	2-14	2-6


So in their 6 away wins, Jacksonville’s opponents were a combined 32-64 (.333) on the season.
In their 8 total away games, Jacksonville’s opponents held an overall record of 51-76 (.402)

And the 11-5 Pittsburgh team they beat in Pennsylvania was with Tommy Maddux at QB; and it took an OT INT for the Jags to win.

Let’s look into this further. As mentioned in this game’s previous post, the Jags ability to score in the red zone will directly factor in whether or not they can take down the defending champs.

In these above mentioned 8 away games this season, here’s a table of how many TDs the Jags scored on trips inside their opponents’ twenty yard line:



OPP	RZ
BAL	1/4
IND	2/5
PIT	2/3
CIN	1/2
DEN	0/0
IND	0/1
SEA	1/3


Overall, in 8 road games this season, Jacksonville went 7/18 (38.8%) inside the red zone.
They were 29/49 (59.2%) on the season, and 22/31 (70.9%) at home inside the red zone.

Coming up next, the Jags vs 3-4 defenses.

2005 Playoffs - Jacksonville at New England - Part I: Leftwich

Wild Card Weekend

The Jaguars enter this game having won 8 out of their last 9 games; losing only to the Colts in week 13. QB David Garrard has led them to their last 5 wins and there is a chance he will be asked to start again this week.

But on Tuesday, Byron Leftwich was listed as ‘probable’ on the team’s injury report and he “took nearly all of the snaps in practice.”

How healthy is he? How rusty will he be on Saturday night?

“We’re going to find out. I’m not looking that rusty in practice. I’m hitting everything. My goal this week is to make it through without a setback,” Leftwich said.

Jacksonville last faced New England in 2003, when the Jags traveled to Foxboro to face the Pats in week 15 on what was described as a “snowy Sunday.”

In that game, Leftwich went 21/40 for 288 with 1 TD and 2 INT. This was Jack Del Rio’s first season as head coach, and the Jags ran Fred Taylor just 16 times in that game.

Leftwich threw two fourth quarter INTs near midfield and the Pats scored 14 points in that final quarter to go up by 21 before a late Kevin Johnson TD catch cut the Pats’ lead to 14.

The Jags were 0/3 in the red zone that day. They settled for field goals twice on the Pats 5 yard line and missed another FG from New England’s 16.

As it did that December day over two years ago, red zone efficiency is something that will play a huge role in this weekend’s game and it will be the feature of my next post.