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Saints opener, and Duece McAllister’s health

Friday, September 7th, 2007

Well done New Orleans.

If you started the game with a script, I recommend scripting the entire game next time.

For the first quarter, you moved the ball on offense, showing patience and creativity. You played cover 2 on defense, something most didn’t think you were going to do but said you needed to do with Jason David at right corner back.

It was basically a show of two defenses not letting the other team’s offense get anything easy down the field. Two deep safeties, keep everything underneath. And we’ve learned that if you don’t play Patriot-style games on defense - disguising and rolling strange coverages - the only other way to slow down Manning’s offense is to play that deep cover 2 the Saints opened the game with.

But, for some reason they stopped. Or just started mixing in the kinds of 3 deep and quarters coverages that will get you beat.

As for Duece McAllister, well, he’s healthy. And that’s not really a good thing. He’s dancing around tacklers again, instead of running through them like he did last year when he wasn’t 100%. And he keeps trying to run like Reggie Bush it’s not going to work for him, this healthy thing. Even Reggie Bush can’t make everyone on the field miss like he thinks he can. Run forward boys.

NFL | 2006 | Week 16 - San Diego Chargers at Seattle Seahawks - Review

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006

20-17 SD at SEA

• Get your 2007 draft list ready because Vincent Jackson is ready to become the #1 WR for the Chargers. He’ll be entering his third year next season and looks to have earned the favor of Phillip Rivers. Jackson was targeted 14 times against the Seahawks and was often the only receiver in the game for San Diego. The Chargers also gave him two chances to run the ball on end arounds.
  
  Jackson is listed at 6′5 / 241 and ran a 4.55 - 40 at the combine almost two years ago. He has good but not great hands, runs good routes, is an very good and active blocker, but just doesn’t have the ability to separate from defenders to make him an elite receiver.
• Both teams were guilty of dropped passes in this game. Normally surehanded receivers like Deion Branch and LaDainian Tomlinson had multiple drops. There must be something about Seattle that does it to anyone.
• Matt Hasselback, who has always been a little sloppy with his footwork, seems to really be struggling to manage that part of his game right now. Some of his throws are really out there as a result of his overconfidence in his arm.
• LT had a 48 yards TD run called back on an unfortunate facemask penalty. RT Shane Olivea had his man (Jammer I think) blocked out of the play, but just got his hands up too high. Other than that, the play was typical Chargers power running. They carry out their blocking assignments so very well and everyone does their job. Even LB Lofa Tatupu, who’s great out shedding blockers and getting to the football, was cut out of the play just enough that he could not take an angle on Tomlinson.
• One thing is clear about Phillip Rivers right now: if you can get him into 3rd and long situations you can blitz him and force San Diego to punt. He’s poised for a first year starter and rarely makes poor decisions, but his willingness to throw the ball away safely can be used against him a little right now as he’s learning to deal with those long yardage situations. The fact that the Chargers are rarely in those 3rd and longs is both good for them now, but bad for Rivers’ growth as a QB.
• The Chargers have a good defense, but there’s definitely something missing that is keeping them from being great. They have dominant players, but yet they rarely dominate opponents. It seems that the strengths of some of their players don’t really compliment one another like how some great defenses have. They could probably use a veteran run stopper in the middle of their linebacking corps - someone like Jeremiah Trotter. And San Diego’s signing of Marlon McCree has helped in the backfield, but a ball hawking FS would do this team wonders.
• The Seahawks defense certainly came out fired up in this game. They definitely seem to elevate their game when playing at home. It wasn’t until there was 6 minutes left in the first half that the Chargers broke their first real big play. It came on a power run right that LT cut back up the middle due to a slight over pursuit by the Hawks’ second level.

NFL | 2006 | Week 16 - Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans - Review

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006

27-24 HOU vs IND


• Credit to the Houston coaches for their game plan. They followed the ‘how to beat the Colts playbook’ well; controlling the football for 36 minutes. The only thing they didn’t really do well was get physical with the Colts’ receivers at the line of scrimmage. Manning was 21-27 and the Colts scored on 4 of their 6 drives (not counting a kneel down at the first half). The two drives Indy failed to get points on were their first, when Rhodes fumbled, and on their first drive of the second half. Also of note is that Indy would have probably not have had to kick a field goal on their second to last drive had Manning not tripped when coming out from under center on a third and 1 from the Houston 15. The Colts kicked there, but were driving well enough that a touchdown seemed almost inevitable. A coach like Payton, Parcells, or Belichick probably goes for it on 4th and 1 there.
• Reggie Wayne’s unproductive day combined with Marvin Harrison’s 8 catch / 112 yard afternoon is a direct result of the strength the Texans have at one corner position in Dunta Robinson. The Colts tried a deep pass to Wayne early in the game, but Robinson was running with Wayne step for step. It’s just so much easier to work the other side of the field as Manning did in this game.
• All the concern on the Colts’ side about stopping the run has trickled into their pass rush as well. Dwight Freeney hasn’t really been a factor this season or last. And the addition of Booger McFarland has helped a little in the middle against the run but he’s certainly not making plays on his own and is a liability when rushing the passer. After watching the Texans’ line push the Colts’ front seven around the field, there’s no doubt what we saw against the Bengals last Monday night wasn’t real improvement and that this team is in big trouble.
• You have to get to Peyton Manning by rushing 4. If you blitz, he’ll beat you. If you drop 8 or 9 into coverage, he’ll use all the time in the pocket to pick you apart. And the Texans could just not generate a pass rush in this game.
• Mario Williams again showed good effort, but too often was contained by one blocker on plays.
• Dominic Rhodes lost another fumble early in the game, his third on the year. Ball security seems like it’ll always be an issue with him.

NFL | 2006 | Week 14 - Indianapolis Colts

Wednesday, December 13th, 2006

17-44 at JAX

I swear this is the last time I’ll write about this. At least for this season.

The Colts continue to lose (or at least struggle) against teams like the Jags, the Titans, the Chargers, and the Patriots because they continue to hand out the same test to their students that they’ve been giving for about 5 years now.

In other words, if you have physical inside linemen who can disrupt the middle gaps against their stretch runs, then you know when you go into a game against the Colts you can set the edge with your outside defenders, and use that inside gap pressure to keep the Colts from running. Since they have few (or none) other run styles, they’re essentially giving you the questions in advance. The Colts, apparently, chose to not be diverse.

And on the same token, if you shut down their running, Indy’s heavy use of three receiver routes become easier to defend against because 1) they run many of the same route combinations, 2) they line up the same players in the same spots on almost every play, and 3) they rely heavily on play action.

The passing game is largely based on timing and repetition, and again when they play a physical defense who gives their receivers a hard time getting off the line, again the Colts struggle.

The principal’s office is calling. Get some new plays.

As for the run defense. It’s bad, but not this bad. Right? I really think if they can get Bob Sanders back, he’ll make a huge impact. The Colts are loading up the line of scrimmage and they just don’t have the players to play defense that way. Loading up the line like they have has left very little second level support against the run. And they’ve been guilty of over-perusing plays. One missed tackle and the back can break a long one - like the Jags did repeatedly in week 14.

NFL | 2006 | Week 14 - Philadelphia Eagles Run Defense Preview

Sunday, December 10th, 2006

1pm at WAS

A quick update on this post from a couple weeks ago regarding the worst run defenses. While doing some research on this week’s best fantasy matchups, I noticed that the Eagles have been giving up chunks of yards on the ground lately.



WEEK	OPP	YARDS	YPC
8	JAX	209	4.54
9	WAS	146	4.7
10	TEN	209	6.53
11	IND	237	5.78
12	CAR	108	4.69
AVG	-	181.8	5.25


Blame the Panthers for not taking better advantage of this trend in their Week 13 Monday night matchup.

Today the Eagles face the Redskins again, and Washington has really been running the ball better over their last few weeks. They’ve gone back to focus on the Gibbs’ style power running game with Betts and Duckett and the once struggling offensive line has responded.

Next week will take on the Giants attention Brandon Jacobs owners), followed by the Cowboys and Atlanta in the final game of the regular season.

NFL | 2006 | Week 13 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday, December 8th, 2006

3-20 at PIT

My favorite play of this game came on the very last one. The Bucs actually kicked a 27 yard field goal as time expired in order to avoid being shutout on the scoreboard.

Bruce Gradkowski seems to be well liked by Coach Jon Gruden. But the rookie QB’s play this season has dropped off considerably. He came into the league known for being a smart QB and one who can use his quick release and accurate arm to get the ball out to his short and intermediate routes. But teams seem to have taken full notice that Gradkowski struggles with both arm strength and accuracy when throwing deep and defenses are taking away more of those intermediate throws he was completing earlier in the season.

In the Steelers’ game, Gradkowski was sacked 5 times and ran out of the pocket for positive yards 6 other times. He attempted 34 passes, but was constantly looking to check the ball down to a back or short receiver.

Gradkowski played very little of this game from the pocket. He was rushed well by the Steelers, but he really felt more pressure than there was for most of the game. Gradkowski has fallen into a bad habit of relying on his mobility late in the season, instead of delivering the football on time somewhere.

Take for example, the Bucs’ 2 minute drive before the end of the first half. Starting from their own 21 with 1:51 remaining, the Bucs ran the ball a couple of times and then picked up a short first down on and a Gradkowski run. That took a minute. Then on first down, Bruce dumped the ball off to Williams. Second down, he scrambled for 5 yards. Third down, sacked. All the while he looked as uncomfortable as I’ve ever seen him in the pocket.

Finally, on the key end zone interception when the score was just 0-10 late in the third quarter, Gradkowsi and fellow rookie Maurice Stovall were called on to hook up on an end zone fade route. But the timing of the play was so bad they made it look like it was perhaps the second time they had ran that play together. From the snap, there was hesitation on both sides - perhaps because Stovall was open short and saw how far off the coverage was. Bruce must have seen this too, because he hesistated for a moment before launching the ball into the back of the end zone where it was safely intercepted.

Other notes about this team:

Carnell Williams had a key drop on a 3rd and 2 to end the Bucs first drive. He also fumbled once officially, and another time unofficially on a play that was properly ruled downed by contact but was still very close to a fumble. Williams was also guilty of two false start penalties. It’s hard not to argue where his head is right now.

Before losing Michael Clayton to a season ending knee injury, the Bucs seemed to feature the third year WR a little more in their offense this game. Still, he did little to prove the short area explosiveness he showed his rookie season and continues to drop passes both in and out of traffic.

Oh, and finally, this defense can generate very little pash rush. They stopped drafting playmakers on that side a few years ago and it’s really showing.

NFL | 2006 | Week 13 - Atlanta Falcons

Wednesday, December 6th, 2006

24-14 at WAS

My problem with the Falcons’ offense is that they have been designing plays to let Michael Vick freelance and improvise. But that’s really like letting a teenager out of the house for a night but sending a chaperone with them.

Any defense that tries to play man coverage against the Falcons is crazy. They have the receivers who can beat DBs one on one and if Vick drops back and sees 7 defenders turn their backs on him to run with receivers, he’s going to take off and run for 20 yards.

It’s been shown that a combination of zone defenses have given this Falcons offense most of their problems - in part because of Vick’s accuracy issues on short 5-10 yard routes and in part because he hasn’t had a bona fide possession receiver since Brian Finneran went on IR.

So, if you’re running this offense, why not just call plays based on that assumption; flood zones and see how the defense reacts. If they roll coverages over to the strong side, then there should be plenty of running room for Vick.

This idea of calling bootlegs for #7 seem counter-productive. Why would you call a blocked play for someone who does his best work in space, making things up as he goes. All those rollout pass plays do are limit the options Michael Vick has to throw or run to.

The Falcons, are at least, back to running the football. Although as this table shows, rushing attempts don’t necessarily translate into wins, but you can certainly see where the offense lost it’s way at mid-season.



GAME	RUSHES	RESULT
@CAR	47	W 20-6
TB	44	W 14-3
@NO	23	L 3-23
ARZ	40	W 32-10
NYG	26	L 14-27
PIT	39	W 41-38
@CIN	38	W 29-27
@DET	26	L 14-30
CLE	29	L 13-17
@BAL	25	L 10-24
NO	45	L 13-31
WAS	41	W 24-10


Results show that Atlanta is 6-1 this season when rushing 38 times or more and 0-5 when running for 29 times or less. No middle ground there. No games where they ran 34 or 35 times.

NFL | 2006 | Week 13 - Tennessee Titans / Indianapolis Colts

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

17-20 at TEN

When is icing a kicker not a good idea?

As the gamebook shows, on 3rd and 11 with 12 seconds left, both the Colts and the Titans had 1 timeout remaining. Each team used their final timeout in between the 3rd and 4th downs.

What the game tape shows is that the Titans called their timeout because it seemed they had changed their minds about attempting a 60 yard field goal. They were sending on the field goal unit. But really, it looked like Coach Fisher was having a hard to deciding. He probably had second thoughts about giving the ball back to the Colts at midfield with time remaining on the clock and one timeout left.

But then the Colts used their final timeout, and it became easy for Coach Fisher to change his mind again. As a result of Indy using their last timeout, the threat of giving the Colts the football at midfield wasn’t so great since they couldn’t stop the clock. Bironas was free to attempt a field goal and he made it.

One final note, in their two games against Tennessee this season, the Colts defense has given up 214 yards rushing and 219 yards rushing.

Here’s more about the Colts’ rush defense woes:

Of the 160 teams that have reached conference championship games since 1966, not one has done so allowing what the Colts are on the ground. Over the past two decades, no team has allowed 135 rushing yards per game and reached the conference championship.

If the situation doesn’t improve, Dungy conceded, “we’ll have struggles like we had (Sunday). We’ll be counting on the offense and the special teams to bail us out. You can win that way, but it’s hard to do.”

Check out the nice historical table they have on that article as well.

NFL | 2006 | Week 13 - Carolina Panthers / Philadelphia Ealges

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

24-27 at PHI

Interesting note here that the game winning interception by Lito Sheppard came as a result of the Eagles knowing the hand signal Delhomme gave Keyshawn at the line of scrimmage.

“We saw it on film,” cornerback Lito Sheppard said. “We watch film and we share the things we see, and that was one of those things. When he patted his butt, I knew to stay to the outside for the fade.”

NFL | 2006 | Week 13 - Detroit Lions / New England Patriots

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

21-28 at NE

It’s hard to say that Mike Martz is an offensive genius anymore, he’s just too predictable to be a genius. But his style of play calling proved to be effective against this Patriots’ defense that has struggled at times this season.

Here’s the Lions’ play calling and result in their week 13 game against New England:

First down rushing: 11 for 30 yards
First down passing: 10/18 for 148 yards, 2 INT, 3 sacks for -11 yards

Second down rushing: 8 for 41 yards
Second down passing: 8/12 for 83 yards, TD, INT, 2 sacls for -11 yards

Third down rushing: 3 for 3 yards
Third down passing: 5/11 for 88 yards

And the second half stats, in particular, show that the Lions really found their grove by throwing on early downs:

First down passing - second half: 7/11 for 111 yards, INT, 2 sacks for -8 yards
Second down passing - second half: 3/4 for 23 yards, 2 sacks for -11 yards

The 284 yards the Lions put up on New England were the third most this season surrendered by the Patriots and the third most thrown for by the Lions this season. Kitna’s raw total of 314 yards passing was also his third 300+ game of the season.

NFL | 2006 | Week 12 - Cincinnati Bengals

Wednesday, November 29th, 2006

30-0 at CLE

The Bengals game against the Browns was a snoozer, so let’s talk about what the Bengals have done over their last three games and look ahead to Thursday night’s game against Baltimore.

At 6-5, Cincinnati essentially needs to win out their final 5 games to make the playoffs. If they get lucky, they can lose one game, but they shouldn’t be counting on it. After the Ravens, they host Oakland before traveling to Indy and Denver only to finish the season at home against the Steelers. That Dec 18, Monday night match up at Indy is probably their game of the year… if this one Thursday night isn’t already.

The last time the Bengals faced the Ravens was in week 8, when Cincy came out flat in the first quarter (fumble, int, punt, punt) and was never able to recover. They got the ball just once in the second quarter and scored on that possession and 4 more out of their 8 drives fromt he 2nd quarter on. But the Ravens played well with their lead and held on to the ball for 37:24 of the game and rode that and 2 Carson Palmer INTs to victory.

Coming into that game, the Bengals were averaging just 317 yards of total offense per game. They picked up 275 against the Ravens. In the three games since then, Cincy has averaged 439 total yards of offense and has scored at least 30 points in each of those three games.

Leading the charge has been Chad Johnson’s 573 yards and 5 TDs over those three games. He’s been targeted 32 times across that span and has pulled in 24 catches.

On defense, the Bengals have averaged just 83 yards per game against the run but that may be misleading because they have given up 980 yards passing (326 ypg) over that span. Cincinnati has increased the pressure they’re getting on the QB and have produced 6 sacks and 7 INTs in their last two games, but it’s obvious that this defense just does not have the players up front or in the secondary to win big games.

NFL | 2006 | Week 12 - Oakland Raiders

Wednesday, November 29th, 2006

10-19 at KC

The league is catching on… these Raiders aren’t as bad anymore. Their defense is absolutely keeping them in games they shouldn’t be in; like this past week’s match at San Diego.

They’re doing it by mainly being able to get pressure with their front 4 and dropping 7 into coverage. The Raiders have an athletic group of linebackers and a physical secondary and they’re playing good football on that side of the ball right now.

Their run defense still isn’t particularly strong, but statistically it’s improved - averaging 149 ypg in their first five games and and 120 ypg in their last six games. That improvement is including two games where they gave up 200+ yards on the ground as well. It has helped them even out and in some cases win the time of possession battle, thus limiting the amount of chances opponents have to break plays as evidenced by how they limited LT to just 19 carries in week 12.

Also of note is how they limited San Diego to just 50 yards and possession of the football for just 8:39 of the first half.

On offense, the Raiders are still pretty much the same mess they’ve been all year. The offensive line blocks well enough in the run game, but are too slow and unable to pass off assignments to pass block effectively. Aaron Brooks’ return to the lineup hides much of the line’s ineffectiveness, as Brooks has spent most of his time making plays and buying time in the backfield. He’s not a very good progression quarterback, but he can definitely make things happen and is a good fit for this kind of train wreck offense. I don’t think that’s really a compliment, but credit should go to Brooks for making whatever he can happen back there.

On the flipside to that, Brooks’ 4th quarter INT in this game is evidence of exactly why he lost his job in New Orleans. The Raiders were driving to go up by two touchdowns when Brooks badly underthrew a pass to John Madsen that Quentin Jammer picked off. San Diego drove down the field and score on LT’s pass to Gates to tie the game.

Perhaps Oakland’s promotion of TE coach John Shoop as offensive coordinator will help improve matters in Oakland. They’ve got Houston at home this week, and two more winable games at home if they’re able to continue to pull things together.

NFL | 2006 | Week 12 - Denver Broncos

Wednesday, November 29th, 2006

10-19 at KC

I touched on the Jay Cutler decision on Monday, but just to add a few notes as to what he’ll do to the rest of the Broncos’ offense: 1) he’ll create more lanes for the running game as defenses will have to respect the downfield passing game more, 2) help Javon Walker show he’s again one of the best receivers in the NFL, and 3) may actually open up more of the playbook for Denver since Plummer’s poor numbers from inside the pocket had probably limited the Broncos’ playbook already.

The Broncos are averaging 4.5 yards per rush and 132.8 yards rushing per game this season, but in two of their last three games they’ve been held under 65 yards rushing. Moreover, Plummer’s highest passing yardage total of the season came in week three and was only 256 yards.

NFL | 2006 | Week 12 - Review Notes

Monday, November 27th, 2006

• Mark Clayton continues to improve and as noted here after week 10, he’s been a big weapon in the new Brian Billick offense.
• Cincinnati’s recent offensive upsurge has come mainly as a result of OC Bob Bratkowski’s taking back a majority of the play calling from Carson Palmer. Bratkowski has allowed for more downfield passing and Chad Johnson’s production has been risen dramatically.
• The Browns may give Jason Wright more carries down the stretch in order to bring more quickness into the lineup.
• Expect Ben Utecht to take up the slack that Dallas Clark’s injury will leave at TE for the Colts. Utecht was was already getting more looks before the Clark injury and now he’ll be moved into the top spot on the depth chart. Utecht has been targeted 36 times this season for 27 catches (75%) and 278 yards.
• The Colts are also expected to announce the signing of Ricky Proehl; a veteran WR with Super Bowl experience who would fit nicely in the slot on that offense. He’s doesn’t have Brandon Stokley’s quickness, but Proehl is a reliable receiver who has made big catches in big games.
• Just to review what Jay Cutler brings now that he’s the starter in Denver, there’s no doubt the former Vandy QB has a special set of physical skills. He also showed in the preseason he has the toughness to stand in the pocket and make throws at this level. The Broncos played enough to see what he could do against NFL talent and Cutler certainly proved he can play. The only question is if he can handle big game pressure, having not come from a big time college program. His demeanor also raises questions about his intensity but this being his rookie season, Cutler will get a pass on most of that as long as he executes the plays he’s supposed to. From what I’ve seen of him in college and in the preseason, he’s going to be great.
  
  Mike Shanahan mentioned in his press conference today that the offense won’t be cut back for Cutler. Shanahan said that Cutler wouldn’t be playing if it was thought that he couldn’t operate the regular gameplan.
• Rumors in full circulation now that Jon Gruden is considering a way out in Tampa.
• Even if Gruden stays, there will significant changes to the identity of the Bucs over this next off-season: particularly on defense. Simeon Rice has almost assuredly played his last game as a Buc, Shelton Quarles’ cap number will be too high to keep around now that Barrett Ruud is proving he can play. Derrick Brooks needs to rework his salary in order to stay, and the team may not be able to afford to keep Brian Kelly either. The Bucs haven’t drafted well on defense since Dungy left and the consequences are showing their full colors. The Bucs rank close to last in many defensive categories.
• The 49ers offensive line may finally getting credit for their part in Frank Gore’s successful season.
• Interesting story here on Washington’s Jason Campbell TD throw to Chris Cooley:

  Campbell, who had to call the play himself because of a helmet malfunction, initially looked for Brandon Lloyd. But Lloyd was covered on the sideline, and Campbell then turned his attention to Cooley across the middle.
  …
  And he has emerged as the most popular receiver during Campbell’s short tenure as the starting quarterback. Over the past two games, the tight end has eight catches for 147 yards and two touchdowns. No other Redskins target has more than 52 receiving yards over that stretch.

NFL | 2006 | Week 11 - Indianapolis Colts

Saturday, November 25th, 2006

The Colts run defense has been widely discussed publicly, but the trade for Anthony McFarland has seemed to have helped - both statistically and what I’ve seen in their games.

In the Colts first 5 games of the season, teams ran the ball 159 times for 834 yards (5.24 YPC). Since the McFarland trade, the Colts have played 5 more games and their opponents have run the ball 161 times. So this is a very effective point of comparison. Since the trade, they’ve given up 713 yards (4.42 YPC). So they’re still giving up yards, but not as bad as they were at the beginning of the season. And as Bob Sanders gets healthy again, expect their numbers against the run to continue to improve.

Back in October, after McFarland’s first game as a Colts, Michael David Smith at Football Outsiders wrote an Every Play Counts column on McFarland and adds support to the improving Colts run defense.

As for their first loss of the season, there’s not much new to note about the Colts. They don’t just struggle against 3-4 defenses, they struggle against 3-4 defenses with good players. OLBers who can rush the passer and stop the run seem to give them big problems. And Dallas clearly showed what being physical with their receivers can do to disrupt the passing game. The Colts offense is one of the least complex in the game. They line up with the same players in the same place on almost every play. They have little variation in formations and personnel packages. That makes it very easy to game plan them. So teams who execute well seem to always have success.

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