Archive for the ‘Tampa Bay’ Category

Michael Bennett in Tampa and Earnest Graham

Thursday, October 18th, 2007

With Michael Bennett moving to Tampa for what is reportedly a 6th and 7th round pick, fantasy owners might be quick to pick Bennett up thinking he’s going to get a chance to be the go to guy with the Bucs.

But if anything, I think this addition just solidifies Earnest Graham’s role with the team. Bennett fits in well as the third down and/or long yardage situation guy.

I’m actually a little high on Graham to perform well for the rest of the season. He’s been in this offense for so many years, and has good compliment back now in Bennett. Graham’s not much more than a 15-20 carry guy, but he’ll get the short yardage and goalline work and he’s a little shiftier than most realize.

And don’t forget that Bennett has a lot of offense to learn. Graham will be the guy until Michael is comfortable.

Tank not headed to Dallas

Sunday, July 1st, 2007

Looks like the number of possible homes for Tank Johnson has been reduced by one.

“Any interest would be pretty minimal right now,” Cowboys director of scouting Jeff Ireland told the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram. “There were a lot of issues coming out of college with this guy, and now it’s been compounded by what went on with the Bears. I don’t think we’d be interested at all.”

Chances are, TJ will end up in Tampa where the Bucs have 29 year old Chris Hovan in the three technique spot. They also are hoping Ryan Sims can step up and play next to Hovan and apply pressure up the middle.

The Bucs, Gruden and Garcia, together at last

Thursday, June 21st, 2007

A nice, lengthy, article from Sal Paolantonio on Jon Gruden’s marriage to Jeff Garcia this offseason.

As someone who currently resides in Tampa, I think it adequately conveys the overall feeling here. This is pretty much it. Prove something now. At least show us the personnel moves Gruden and GM Bruce Allen have made together are going to pay off. Because most of it looks like the floundering of a fish out of water; gasping for air each offseason and falling short of breath each time around week 12.

Gruden’s right about Garcia when he said:

He’s a creative football player. There’s going to be six or seven plays that are not scripted in a football game that he’s going to make and for that we’re excited.”

The problem is the limits on the offense having someone like Garcia back there can bring. Good defenses can take what he does well away, and force him to do what he doesn’t do well. No matter, Garcia can turn in a winning season, but he’s a stop gap. He’s still a better stop gap than Chris Simms, or anyone else the Bucs have. Especially so when considering how Paolantonio writes about Simms not being physically ready to play. About how Simms’ mechanics are all screwed up.

But even if you call a Garcia offense limited, last year’s Bucs ‘offense’ was chained down powerless.

Gruden’s offense failed to gain a first down on 45 percent of its drives in 2006, the highest rate of three-and-outs in the league, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. And forget third and long. The Bucs gained a first down on only 9 percent of their plays on third-and-10-or-more yards — that was the lowest rate in the league and less than half the NFL average of 20 percent.

The play calling was all over the place last season, but that’s probably because Gruden knew he couldn’t line up and play with the guys he had on the field. He had a rookie 6th round QB who couldn’t complete a pass beyond 15 yards. He had a Carnell Williams running without the explosion he needs to get those 100 yards a game. He had a young offensive line and only one consistent receiver.

But this is it. This is really it for the Bucs. They’ve done well for themselves by finally addressing the defense in the draft. And if some of these offensive linemen they’ve been drafting for three straight years don’t start to compete at high levels, the coaching staff is directly at fault. Like everyone is saying, this is really it for team Gruden. We mean it this time.

NFL | 2006 | Week 13 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday, December 8th, 2006

3-20 at PIT

My favorite play of this game came on the very last one. The Bucs actually kicked a 27 yard field goal as time expired in order to avoid being shutout on the scoreboard.

Bruce Gradkowski seems to be well liked by Coach Jon Gruden. But the rookie QB’s play this season has dropped off considerably. He came into the league known for being a smart QB and one who can use his quick release and accurate arm to get the ball out to his short and intermediate routes. But teams seem to have taken full notice that Gradkowski struggles with both arm strength and accuracy when throwing deep and defenses are taking away more of those intermediate throws he was completing earlier in the season.

In the Steelers’ game, Gradkowski was sacked 5 times and ran out of the pocket for positive yards 6 other times. He attempted 34 passes, but was constantly looking to check the ball down to a back or short receiver.

Gradkowski played very little of this game from the pocket. He was rushed well by the Steelers, but he really felt more pressure than there was for most of the game. Gradkowski has fallen into a bad habit of relying on his mobility late in the season, instead of delivering the football on time somewhere.

Take for example, the Bucs’ 2 minute drive before the end of the first half. Starting from their own 21 with 1:51 remaining, the Bucs ran the ball a couple of times and then picked up a short first down on and a Gradkowski run. That took a minute. Then on first down, Bruce dumped the ball off to Williams. Second down, he scrambled for 5 yards. Third down, sacked. All the while he looked as uncomfortable as I’ve ever seen him in the pocket.

Finally, on the key end zone interception when the score was just 0-10 late in the third quarter, Gradkowsi and fellow rookie Maurice Stovall were called on to hook up on an end zone fade route. But the timing of the play was so bad they made it look like it was perhaps the second time they had ran that play together. From the snap, there was hesitation on both sides - perhaps because Stovall was open short and saw how far off the coverage was. Bruce must have seen this too, because he hesistated for a moment before launching the ball into the back of the end zone where it was safely intercepted.

Other notes about this team:

Carnell Williams had a key drop on a 3rd and 2 to end the Bucs first drive. He also fumbled once officially, and another time unofficially on a play that was properly ruled downed by contact but was still very close to a fumble. Williams was also guilty of two false start penalties. It’s hard not to argue where his head is right now.

Before losing Michael Clayton to a season ending knee injury, the Bucs seemed to feature the third year WR a little more in their offense this game. Still, he did little to prove the short area explosiveness he showed his rookie season and continues to drop passes both in and out of traffic.

Oh, and finally, this defense can generate very little pash rush. They stopped drafting playmakers on that side a few years ago and it’s really showing.

2006 | Week 2 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thursday, September 21st, 2006

3-14 at ATL

Targets stats only this week.

CATCHES / TARGETS:
Galloway - 9/16
Clayton - 5/8
Hilliard - 6/8
Pittman - 3/8
Alstott - 3/6
Becht - 2/3
Smith - 0/1
Williams - 0/1

2005 NFL Playoffs - Washington at Tampa Bay - Part II: Notes

Saturday, January 7th, 2006

Wild Card Weekend


• Both of these defenses are very different groups than the ones that gave up 71 points on 11.13.05. The low scoring game I thought would happen back then should finally happen this time.
• In their first meeting this year, the Bucs blitzed a lot more than usual on defense in order to protect their banged up secondary and linebackers. Now, they are relatively healthy and should be able to play more to their own strengths; rather than their weaknesses.
• On the flipside, the Redskins are the team that comes into this game with injuries. They normally play a pressure style, but how effective they will be in this game at bringing pressure with their front four will be more important than ever. For a team that is used to blitzing, Washington may have to do some things they aren’t used to in order to maintain pressure and protect their secondary.
• Washington’s defense ranks 9th overall in yards per game, but they are 21st in average gain per rush. Much of their success has come against the pass, where they are 5th in the NFL in average gain per pass play. Yet, they will probably be without Shawn Springs on Saturday. Rookie Carlos Rogers hasn’t played in three games, although he’s expected to be available against the Bucs.
• The Redskins love to substitute their entire defensive line on third and long downs. If the Bucs have done their research, they could use a draw play or screen pass to Pittman a couple of times to pick up a key first down.
• The top improvement of this year’s Bucs’ defense has been its play against the run:

  The Bucs, who signed nose tackle Chris Hovan before this season, allowed seven fewer runs of 20 or more yards than last season. The longest run allowed was 31 - to the Redskins’ Clinton Portis - whereas the Bucs allowed four runs longer than that a year ago.

• There’s every truth to the commonly discussed difference in Clinton Portis running a power run (sweeping linemen) versus and zone stretch. I bet if someone were actually charting his 10+ yard runs this year, at least 80% would have come from the zone stretch runs. Expect the Redskins to continue to use more of these plays because of Portis’ effectiveness but also because 42 year old Ray Brown is replacing Randy Thomas at RG.
• Inside the Red Zone, the Skins had the league’s 4th best offense this year. They converted 30 of 47 trips inside the 20 for TDs (63.8%) and 40/47 (85.1%) for points. But a look inside the stats shows that they can struggle to get the ball into the end zone on the ground. 9 of Portis’ 11 rushing TDs this year came in the red zone. Betts and Cartwright combined for 3 more RZ rushing TDs. On the receiving side, Moss had 2, Cooley- 6, Royal- 1, Betts- 1, and Sellers- 7. That’s 17 RZ passing TDs compared to 14 rushing. The Skins have shown excellent balance on offense inside the 20, but in the games I’ve reviewed recently, they could be in trouble if the Bucs respect their TEs and FBs out of the backfield.
• The Skins are essentially a 2 receiver team: Moss and Cooley. That will help the Bucs because Brian Kelly has been struggling in coverage lately.
• The stats say that Washington had the 6th best opponents kickoff return average in the NFL this season. But in the last 3 games I watched, vs DAL, vs NYG, at PHI, their kickoffs consistently landed at the 10 and were returned to the 35 or 40. Michael Pittman averaged 28.3 yards in three returns in his KOR debut last week. Look for him to make an impact against Washington.
• Because this is a home game for Tampa Bay, their offensive line (a unit that has been together all season long) will be allowed to make those all-important checks at the line against a Redskins defense that like to show a variety of looks on third downs.
• The Bucs run on first down more than any other team I’ve consistently watched this year. They must throw in some different looks in order to stay out of third and longs against Washington..
• When Simms first started in place of Griese, Coach Gruden gave him essentially the same offense to run and the results were, well, back to back losses to SF and CAR. After those games, Coach Gruden used more max protect schemes to give his QB time to work himself into the game. The Bucs’ offense improved and they won their next 2 games. But over the last few games, Tampa Bay has weaned Simms off those max protections and they have been running their more traditional offense. They couldn’t adjust in NE when the Pats were able to get pressure and how they react to what Redskins bring will be important. Being at home will help.
• Ever since the days that Warren Sapp roamed the sidelines in Tampa Bay, he always used to say that if the Bucs score 17 points, they will win. Well, this season, the Bucs were 10-0 when scoring 17+ points. They were 1-5 when scoring less than 17.

2005 Playoffs - Washington at Tampa Bay - Part I: Breaking Down the Moss Screen Play

Saturday, January 7th, 2006

Off the snap, the tightend (Cooley) fires out to get to the CB.
The OT also fires out and leaves the DE unblocked. This should be the read for the entire defense and that DE is the key to disrupting this play before it gets into the second level.
The OG and C block down strong side briefly and then release laterally as the ball in the air. Once the catch is made, they are in position to turn upfield and lead the play.



What makes it such a difficult play to defense is that it works best on passing downs like 2nd and 10 or 1st and 15. When the defense thinks pass and then sees the QB drop back, their instinct is to get downfield. But Brunnel gives the play away right off the snap and in order to defense this play, both the DE on the side of the play and the backside OLB have to make proper reads.



Once the pass is completed, the receiver (Moss) has to take a step inside to gather himself and set up the blocks. If the DE reads the play poorly, and rushes the QB, he still has a good chance to break the play up by getting into the passing lane and batting the pass or forcing the ball to be thrown outside or inside the proper lane. If the DE properly reads the screen off the ball (free release from the OT), he can turn back to the sideline and get to the WR as the ball is arriving. It’s the one step in that the WR takes that gives the DE a window to make the play. But that’s all there is because if the DE is a step late, the WR is gone and it’s now up to the backside OLB or someone else to get off their block.

What makes the backside OLB so important on this play is that he’s coming from far enough away to take a proper angle through the blockers and get to the second hole of the linemen. The backside CB is too far away, and the backside safety does not have a good angle and should instead be backing the the other safety.



When you have a shifty player who reads his blocks as well as Moss, this play is so hard to beat. But if there’s a team that can do it, it’s one that features athletic ends on each side of the line and smart, fast linebackers.

Full game breakdown coming next…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Week 13

Wednesday, December 7th, 2005

10-3 at New Orleans

Like this week’s Bears post, the following is based on notes from this past week and the week before.

A bit of an offensive funk has fallen on the the Bucs’ offense over the last few weeks. They are no longer dictating the pace of their games. Instead, Tampa Bay seems to be playing to their opponents, rather than having their opponents play to them.

For example, two weeks ago at home against Chicago, the Bucs played a very conservative game on offense. Yet when they needed a scoring drive, they were successful at moving the ball down the field. But for most of the game, the Bucs seemed willing to play a tight, low scoring game with the Bears. And as a result, the crowd in Tampa was a non-factor until the fourth quarter, and by then, it was too late to rattle Chicago’s rookie quarterback. The Bears already had a lead, and up to that point, the game had gone exactly as Chicago had hoped. At home, and against a team that probably can’t put together more than two touchdown drives on their own, I really thought the Bucs missed an opportunity there by playing down to Chicago.

Much of the same happened this past week in Baton Rouge, which again surprised me since they did not have to worry about crowd noise. Coach Gruden called for runs on first down a total of 15 times, compared to just 3 passes. Tampa Bay’s offense was 4 for 12 on third downs (the key stat when rating this offense in particular) and they did not convert their first third down until there was 5:16 left in the third quarter.

The Bucs still came away with a win against the Saints, but I really think they could be 2-0 in their last two (instead of 1-1) if the offensive gameplan was a little more… not aggressive, but maybe just diverse. When Simms first took over in San Fransisco, Tampa Bay didn’t do enough to protect the youngster in transition and now it seems they may be doing too much to protect him. It’s a tough middle to find, but one that the Bucs are going to have to do over the next four weeks if they intend to extend their season.

The Saints game was another strong one for Williams and Coach Gruden has done a good job over the last few weeks mixing in Alstott and Pittman in order to keep Carnell’s carries around 20 per game.

One of the changes it looks like the Bucs defense has made since giving up 27+ points three games in a row is go to more man to man coverage. They’ve been hit hard by injuries on defense, and especially at safety where it’s important in the cover 2 for both the FS and SS to keep plays in front of them when covering half the field.

The Bucs defense now needs to work on covering screen passes, which both the Saints and Bears used at key times to pick up first downs.

TARGETS(catches):
Galloway- 9(5)
Hilliard- 3(2)
Williams- 3(2)
Smith- 2(1)
Pittman- 2(2)
Alstott- 2(0)

Week 11 - Tampa Bay Bucs

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2005

30-27 at Atlanta

After falling behind 20-27 with seven and a half minutes left, the Bucs put together a great drive that lasted around 5 minutes that tied the game. Simms made two very good decisions/throws under a lot of pressure on that drive. In all, the Bucs have either been using playaction to protect Simms, or they’ve been keeping 5 and 6 guys in to block much more often than they used to. With this better protection, Simms has really had a strong two weeks. Tampa only had the ball for 24 minutes in this game, and they struggled to convert third downs against the league’s top third down defense. But they are certainly coming through with plays when they need them right now.

Looking ahead to week 12, as good as the Bears’ defense is, they aren’t tricky and they aren’t really a team that will give a variety of looks. They do what they do by getting pressure and forcing turnovers. And an efficient offense can still succeed against that kind of defense. The Bucs get to face a very similar defense every day in practice.

Derrick Brooks is definitely playing through an injury. He’s not pursuing the ball when it’s away from him at any rate near full speed.

Joey Galloway was shut out in part because he had DeAngelo Hall on him and because he dropped a pass or two.

TARGETS(catches):
Galloway- 5(0)
Clayton- 3(3)
Smith- 3(3)
Williams- 3(3)
Alstott- 2(1)
Becht- 1(1)
Cook- 1(0)

Wednesday Football

Wednesday, November 9th, 2005

Week Nine Game Reviews
Carolina - Tampa Bay | Seattle - Arizona | Atlanta - Miami

Carolina Panthers:
Carolina always seems to take their games with the Bucs more seriously than Tampa does. The stats don’t really show the blowout that this game was. Carolina was balanced on offense, they didn’t turn the ball over, and no one can stop Steve Smith.

Julius Peppers again had Kenyatta Walker playing scared. Peppers has just owned Walker over his career.

The Panthers rank 4th in the NFL in points per game, 3rd in third down efficiency, and yet they are 31st in average gain per rushing attempt. The Panthers have forced 20 turnovers this year (tied for 3rd), but they’ve given away 15 themselves. But they are in first place by a wide margin in red zone touchdown percentage (77% versus second places’ 70%). The Panthers do have some holes in their game, and they’ll struggle when facing a team as disciplined and well coached as they are, but there are few out there. Carolina is essentially a NFC contender based on their third down and red zone efficiency alone. Anyone who wants to beat them will need to focus on what Carolina is doing when they need to convert a play.

The Panthers have won five in a row but they still have both games against Atlanta on their schedule.
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 8(5)
Foster- 3(2)
Colbert- 2(1)
Davis- 2(1)
Proehl- 1(1)
Gardner- 1(0)
Mangum- 1(1)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
I don’t think Jon Gruden and his staff are doing a good job at getting their team ready to play. I think they are underestimating their weaknesses and overestimating their strengths. The difference between the Chris Simms that played against SF and the Simms that played against Carolina was clear. Against the 49ers, Simms was in over his head, unsure of the offense, and confused; even though he had a bye week to prepare for the game. Against the Panthers, Simms looked like the player most expected to see. He was getting the ball out on time, and his throws for the most part were where they needed to be.

Now, that said, he’s still a young QB and he’s making mistakes. The INT TD he threw to Chris Gamble wasn’t pretty. It was a 5 yard out that Simms has to make an adjustment on, even as he’s delivering the ball. Gamble broke on the first move and when you see that as a QB, if you’re already throwing you still have the ability to throw it high and over both targets. Simms has always had the label of being a better practice QB than a gamer, and I think a lot of that has to do with how he delivers the ball. Simms has a great arm, and a good throwing motion, he’s just a little too casual with his throws. He’s a reps and rhythm guy who isn’t a playmaker.

Anthony McFarland and the rest of the Bucs was really working hard in this game. The entire defense again gave a good effort, but these safeties still aren’t good enough in coverage to make their system work properly.

TARGETS(catches):
Galloway- 13(5)
Clayton- 8(2)
Pittman- 6(4)
Hillard- 5(4)
Smith- 3(3)
Williams- 3(3)
Becht- 2(2)
Alstott- 2(2)




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Seattle Seahawks:
Seattle used a lot of draws against the attacking Cardinals defense, especially on their opening drive. And it definitely was effective at keeping the Cards off balance on defense.

There has been talk this season that the team chemistry on the Seahawks is in a place it’s never been before. There appears to be something special going on here. Their offense is first in the NFL in total yards per game, average gain per rush, first downs per game, average gain per play, and they are 5th best in points per game. Don’t sleep on them.
TARGETS(catches):
Jurevicious- 6(4)
Engram- 5(3)
Stevens- 3(2)
Hannam- 3(1)
Strong- 1(1)
Morris- 1(1)
Urban- 1(1)


Arizona Cardinals:
New quarterback, same red zone struggles for Arizona. They have scored a touchdown just 3 times in 21 red zone trips this year. And six times they’ve come away with zero points.

I still put this on Kurt Warner. He never had great arm strength, and now it seems he’s a little wary of it and so he holds onto the ball too much. And in the red zone, when passing windows are open for less time than they are anywhere else, Warner is struggling the most. And he had time to throw against the Seahawks, but for almost three full quarter the Cardinals couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone.

The unfortunate part about all this is that Arizona has someone who could potentially be one of the best red zone WR in the game (Fitzgerald).

Someone needs to ask: Why is Kurt Warner starting? This offensive line cannot pass block. Kurt Warner cannot throw on the run. Connect the dots. Why is Kurt Warner starting.

J.J. Arrington is officially back on the radar. He’s been improved over the last few weeks but this was the first game I’ve seen him run with a purpose since his days at Cal. Arrington is still a fish out of water in this offense, however, so I don’t expect anything big to happen. He needs to play in a west coast hybrid system.

Bryant Johnson may have had a nice fantasy day, but he made a couple of key mistakes in this game; including dropping a slant pass in the end zone and blocking from behind on Edwards’ long catch and run. There’s a reason Johnson, a former first round pick, has been a third receiever for most of his career.

And losing Bertrand Berry for the season is going to kill this defense. Take the Cardinals out of the grill, it’s over for them.
TARGETS(catches):
Fitzgerald- 14(8)
Johnson- 11(6)
Newhouse- 7(2)
McCoy- 4(3)
Arrington- 4(4)
Ayanbadejo- 3(2)
Shipp- 2(1)
Bergen- 2(2)
Edwards- 2(1)



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Atlanta Falcons:
Michael Vick’s numbers for this game were certainly impressive, but the Dolphins- who don’t really have a good secondary to begin with- did him a lot of favors by blitzing frequently. You just cannot send 6 or 7 guys to rush Michael Vick. He’s going to be just as fast or faster than any of those blitzers and what you’re doing with the biltz is handing him a decision on where to throw to ball. His one weakness, pass selection, is taken away when you tell him off the snap of the ball where he should go. It becomes a much easier choice for Vick. That’s why Tampa has always been effective against him. They get pressure off the left tackle and they drop seven in coverage.

Atlanta’s defense is still soft against the run, but that is offset by their third down efficiency. The Falcons are 2nd in the league at getting off the field on third downs, a stat that is supplemented by their 4th best QB sack percentage. In this game, their speed was too much for Miami to contend with.
TARGETS(catches):
Finneran- 11(8)
Crumpler- 8(6)
White- 5(3)
Dunn- 4(4)
Griffith- 2(1)
Blakely- 1(0)


Miami Dolphins:
Teams who run the ball are going to be able to move down the field against Atlanta. And Miami’s ground game is still it’s strength. Still, this game wasn’t as close as it needed to be. During the first half, the Falcons gave the ball up on Miami’s 10 once and on their own 15 once, essentially giving the Dolphins 10 points. That allowed Miami a chance to stay with their run game, and stay in the game overall. To their credit, the Dolphins were technically in this game until late into the fourth quarter. Miami can stop the run and they can run the ball pretty well themselves. But they are 30th in the league in time of possession and in order to be competitive, they have to keep the ball out of the air- on both sides.
TARGETS(catches):
Chambers- 6(3)
McMichael- 4(3)
Brown- 4(2)
Booker- 3(2)
Welker- 2(1)
Morris- 2(2)
Williams- 1(0)



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I should have a couple more games up tonight.

Wednesday Football

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2005

Arizona Cardinals:
The Cards are trying to use more I-back, two WR sets in order to get more production from their running game, but the results just aren’t there. I guess we’ll see how Kurt Warner does this week. I still don’t understand why Warner was brought in. Josh McCown isn’t great, but you can count on him giving his best. How many games has Warner won this year?

Speaking of McCown, Dallas got good results by getting early pressure on the Cardinals QB. In the second quarter there were two key drives where Arizona could have stayed even with the Cowboys going into halftime. But because of the pressure, and more importantly the fear of pressure, McCown unloaded about six straight passes that were forced or thrown too soon. And so as a result, after a relatively good first quarter, McCown was off target with most of his throws for the rest of the afternoon.

J.J. Arrington continues to show that he has very little understanding on how to run behind blockers. He’s up there on the list of backs that needs to be traded to Denver.

Larry Fitzgerald had a number of jump ball chances in this game, but the Cowboys did a good job of keeping multiple defenders around him at all times.
TARGETS(catches):
Fitzgerald- 11(4)
Boldin- 8(3)
Johnson- 5(2)
Shipp- 5(4)
Bergen- 1(1)
Ayanbedejo- 1(1)
Arrington- 1(1)


Dallas Cowboys:
Bill Parcells loves to face a team who uses plenty of blitzes and so getting ready to face Arizona must have been a fun week for him and his offensive staff.

Marion Barber is a good back, but he really had a ton of room to run on Sunday against Arizona. Dallas ran especially well behind the left side of their line, but the right end struggled to keep defenders back. Most of the profitable runs to the right were as a result of cut backs of plays starting left.

Keyshaun Johnson has been a very consistent performer this season. He’s been thrown no less than 6 passes in any one week, he’s scored in four different games and added a 120 yard effort in one game he didn’t score in.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 7(6)
Witten- 5(5)
Glenn- 4(3)
Price- 2(1)
Barber- 2(2)
Pierce- 1(1)
Polite- 1(1)



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Chicago Bears:
The Bears ended the first quarter having held the ball for just 3:29 and with only 10 total yards of offense. This is just not a good road team and for them to take this one from Detroit is just huge for their season. (They did end up with 216 yards of offense for the first half.)

Losing Mark Bradley is just an awful break for Chicago. Not only was he becoming a protege of Muhammad, but Bradley was beginning to show that great run after catch ability he flashed at Oklahoma. I don’t know if it was a coincidence, but the Bears’ offense did nothing after Bradley went down with his knee injury (which, by the way, was another 100% turf casualty).

Chicago hit a lot of skinny posts in this game. Orton has such a great arm, that when he makes that throw it’s almost impossivle to defend.

The Bears’ defense is probably the fastest in the league. And they just pounded Jeff Garcia in this game.
TARGETS(catches):
Muhammad- 9(4)
Bradley- 5(5)
Jones- 5(3)
Gage- 4(2)
Clark- 4(1)
Wade- 2(0)
Edwards- 1(1)
Peterson- 1(1)

Detroit Lions:
Kevin Jones’ game is really picking up. He turned it on late last year and it looks like he’s about to do something big real soon. Jones looks as quick, as fast, and as strong as ever. And that was obvious before his third quarter TD run where he beat a very good linebacker (Briggs) around the right corner for the score.

Charles Rogers is back this week, but the Lions have good depth at WR even with Kevin Johnson out. Scottie Vines is a good athlete at that position and he’s a quality fourth option.
TARGETS(catches):
Vines- 8(5)
MWilliams- 7(3)
Jones- 6(5)
Pollard- 5(3)
Bryson- 5(5)
Pinner- 1(1)
Martinez- 1(1)



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Minnesota Vikings:
How will Minnesota’s offense run with Brad Johnson behind center? Johnson will certainly bring more efficiency, but he doesn’t have Culpepper’s arm strength. That may actually be a good thing because it will force the Vikings to use more controlled pass plays, something they should have done from the beginning of the season. Minnesota also has to do something about the awful routes their receivers run. On almost every play they will run straight ahead for seven yards, stutter step about six times to try to sell the myth that they’re breaking their route short (which they never do), and then they will go deep. No one’s buying it.

There is just no aggresiveness on defense here. What happened to the attacking style they said they were going to play? Pat Williams continues to be the team’s best defender.
TARGETS(catches):
Williams- 7(3)
Taylor- 5(2)
MRobinson- 5(4)
Wiggins- 5(3)
Williamson- 4(1)
Burleson- 3(1)
Kleinsasser- 2(1)
Moore- 1(1)

Carolina Panthers:
Shame on the Vikings for thinking they could cover Steve Smith with just Fred Smoot. 11 catches for 201.

Smith did his damage with the smoothest, most subtle moves you’ll see out of a receiver. He absolutely had Smoot’s number.

There’s been a lot of flea flickers in the league over the last few weeks, but I yet to see one work. The big thing about these plays is that the wide receivers really have to sell it, and just by judging the results, they are not getting anyone to bite.

The Panthers’ run game has struggled, but with DeShaun Foster back in the lineup they looked improved. He definitely adds something to their attack that Carolina needs to succeed.

Keep an eye on TE Michael Gaines. He had two big catches in this game and I like how comfortable he looks as a receiver (he’s 280 pounds).
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 11(11)
Foster- 5(1)
Colbert- 4(2)
Proehl- 3(2)
Gardner- 2(1)
Gaines- 2(2)
Davis- 2(1)
Goings- 1(0)



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Green Bay Packers:
This was a game where Brett Favre really could have used Javon Walker. Favre’s throws were anything but careful, and 4 of his 5 INTs were passes that the Bengals DBs made better plays on the ball than the Packers’ receivers. Lots of miscommunication out there and not a lot of determination on Green Bay’s part.

The Packers have an underrated defense. They are well-coached and they stop the run better than expected.

I was anxious to see Samkon Gado run, and he did once for 8 yards. Early comparisons to Willie Parker look to be close. Gado is fast, and he has a good, powerful, and low base.

Bubba Franks is a player you might be able to get cheap (or free) right now. Considering there are very few players on this team that Favre has played with, I expect Franks to have a busy second half to the season.

The play to end this game (Favre’s fake spike gallop) is probably one of the ugliest plays to occur in football this year.
TARGETS(catches):
Chatman- 11(8)
Franks- 10(7)
Driver- 9(5)
Lee- 4(3)
Fisher- 4(2)
Henderson- 1(1)

Cincinnati Bengals:
It looked like the Packers in this game borrowed a lot from what the Steelers did on Monday night; bringing pressure by overloading one side and playing a two deep shell behind.

Cincinnati did a poor job at finishing drives, and with Green Bay not allowing them any big plays, the Bengals offense was only able to put together two good drives all game. Their execution is lacking right now, as teams have adjusted a bit to what the Bengals are doing on offense.

Chris Perry’s chances continue to rise.
TARGETS(catches):
CJ- 13(5)
Perry-7(6)
TJ- 6(5)
Henry- 4(2)
Walter- 1(1)
Schobel- 1(1)
RJ- 1(1)
JJ- 1(1)



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Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
You can’t really ask more of your defense than what they got, but still the Bucs couldn’t pull out a victory against SF. Coming in with a record of 5-1 against teams who were a combined 13-23, this game really proved just how fragile the Bucs’ success is.

Third downs have been one of Tampa’s top strengths this season, but with Simms at QB and without any production from the running game, Tampa Bay wen 3 of 14 on third downs. Starting a game on the road is just a very difficult thing for a young quarterback to do.

I can’t believe that with an extra week to prepare, Coach Gruden would hand Chris Simms the same offense to run. But that’s what seems to have happened here. There didn’t appear to be many half-field reads, or designed rollouts (ala Ben Burger, 2004) to slow things down for Simms. And in turn the Bucs were as undisciplined as ever, racking up 8 penalties for the game and also forgetting to tackle Kevan Barlow on the second to last play of the first half (leading to a Nedney field goal).
TARGETS(catches):
Galloway- 13(8)
Clayton- 7(4)
Smith- 3(2)
Alstott- 3(3)
Hillard- 2(1)
Pittman- 2(1)
Williams- 2(1)
Sheppard- 1(1)

San Francisco 49ers:
Mike Nolan won this game for the Niners. He and his staff outcoached Tampa Bay by such a wide margin, the 49ers actually won. Were it not for a great individual play by Joey Galloway, Tampa probably gets blown out 15-3 in this game. San Fran gave up zero turnovers, they ran the ball 39 times for 158 yards, and quite simply they made plays when they needed to. This Cody Pickett is an interesting player, but he’s not really a legitimate quarterback yet. And he’s probably starting this week.
TARGETS(catches):
Lloyd- 6(2)
Morton- 3(1)
Barlow- 3(2)
Jackson- 2(1)
Smith- 2(0)
Bajema- 1(1)
Gore- 1(1)
Beasley- 1(0)

Tuesday Football

Wednesday, October 19th, 2005

Just a couple games tonight, as I work to catch back up:

Jacksonville Jaguars
Greg Jones was a surprise starter in Fred Taylor’s absence (all indicators pointed to Pearman) and the former Seminole did a good job for the Jags when running in between the tackles. I know Jones wasn’t happy when the Jags asked him to be a fullback this year, so it’s nice to see him getting some time with the football. Alvin Pearman looked like he was trying to bounce the ball wide to many times.

A few weeks ago, I speculated that the Jags would end the year with around 12 wins. I’m not so certain about that anymore. Their schedule looks relatively easy after they come off their bye this week, but I really think they should have been able to hand it to this Steelers team- without Ben, Ward, and off that big Monday night win in San Diego. 12-4 is still very possible, based on their schedule, but this team has further to go than I thought.

Nice one handed touchdown catch by Matt Jones, but that’s still really all he can do well right now.
TARGETS(catches):
Williams- 9(3)
Smith- 8(3)
Pearman- 5(5)
Brady- 3(3)
MJones- 2(2)
Wilford- 2(2)
Wrighster- 1(0)
GJones- 1(1)

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers tried to keep their pass plays simple for Tommy Maddox (lots of screens, quick hits), but he still managed to throw two first quarter INTs and the game-winning INT in OT. And their first scoring drive was aided by a long pass interference penalty on Jacksonville that was caused mostly because Maddux underthrew his intended receiver by so much, the Jacksonville DB wasn’t able to turn and adjust to the ball properly because he didn’t think the pass would be so badly underthrown.

By the time the fourth quarter had started, the Jags had more than twice the total yardage as the Steelers and Pittsburgh’s two big plays came courtesy of their special teams (Randal El punt return TD) and Jacksonville’s defense (aforementioned pass interference penalty).
TARGETS(catches):
Randel El- 10(3)
Miller- 6(4)
Wilson- 4(1)
Morgan- 4(2)
Parker- 2(0)
Haynes- 1(1)

—
Miami Dolphins
On the Dolphins first drive, they ran an end-around with Chambers that went for 19 yards. Two plays later, they ran that same great looking reverse that went for 61 yards (Chambers would have scored had he not stepped out of bounds) in week one against Denver. This time, it would have be good for a 40 yard TD had it not been called back by penalty.

I know Miami needs to work in Ricky Williams, but the difference between he and Ronnie Brown right now is great enough to consider keeping Brown at 20+ snaps a game.

All three of Wes Welker’s catches came in the fourth quarter.

Miami’s offensive line really struggled with the speed of this Bucs’ defense.
TARGETS(catches):
McMichael- 8(3)
Booker- 7(1)
Williams- 6(6)
Chambers- 5(3)
Welker- 4(3)
Brown- 3(2)
Morris- 3(2)
Gilmore- 2(1)
Boston- 1(0)
Heller- 1(0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs Oline has done a good job this year in both run and pass blocking, but the latter is in part because Griese has done a good job delivering his passes on time. Now that Simms is the starter, it will be interesting to see how their line will hold up when their quarterback becomes more indecisive, as young QBs are prone to do. They did pretty well against the Dolphins in the second half of this game.

And for those that did not see Griese’s injury, it was very similar to Ben Burger’s on Monday night last week. But, obviously, the consequences of the hit were very different.

Tampa Bay really dominated the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense. As mentioned, their front four had their way with the Dolphins line. This really is such an improved run defense with a healthy McFarland and with the addition of Hovan.

Normally young QBs struggle the most on third downs, and the Bucs are a 8-10 play drive offense. This is going to be a tough trick for them to pull off if Simms has a hard time moving the chains.

Backups usually look for receivers they practice with on the second team, and Simms found Ike Hilliard a couple of time in key situations on Sunday.
TARGETS(catches):
Galloway- 14(9)
Smith- 4(2)
Clayton- 3(2)
Hilliard- 2(2)
Becht- 1(1)
Pittman- 1(1)
Alstott- 1(1)

Wednesday Football

Thursday, September 22nd, 2005

Well, the football guys locked the door to the targets stats they left open last week. Here’s the NFC notes:

ARZ- The Cards really struggled against a Rams defense they should have performed better against. Arizona failed to score a touchdown on four different drives inside the 30. Kurt Warner, despite throwing for 327 yards, had a tough time finding targets when it mattered most. After getting 15 throws in week one, Larry Fitzgerald only got 5 against the Rams. Anquan Boldin led the team with 9 in week two, including three looks inside the red zone. Poor Bryan Johnson has just 4 catches on 18 targets through two weeks.

Marcel Shipp had a solid game, but he was underused with just 12 carries. He did catch five of the six passes thrown his way. With J.J. Arrington struggling (he’s not a good fit for this offense), I’ve expected Shipp to take over the running duties for the Cardinals.

And just on a side note, there’s not a better home field kicker in the NFL right now than Neil Rackers.

ATL- Rising star Michael Jenkins had another strong game, he led the Falcons with 6 targets. But inside the twenty, Vick looked to Brian Finneran three times. Since there’s a good chance that Matt Schaub is starting this weekend against Buffalo, I expect Finneran to have another good week- especially if he gets matched up against the 5′9 Terrance McGee near the goalline.

CHI- Mushin Muhammad is going to led the way as long as he’s healthy, and the former Panther got 9 passes thrown to him on Sunday. But inside the 20, with a rookie QB, the Bears are a running team. On the season, Thomas Jones has 6 redzone carries and Cedric Benson has 1, while Orton has thrown just three passes (all against the Redskins).

DAL- Jason Witten picked up 6 targets on Monday night after just getting one pass thrown his way in week one. Terry Glenn was the Cowboys’ leader against Washington, with 9 targets, 6 catches, 157 yards (long of 70) and a score.

DET- Joey Harrington is still staring down his receivers and against the Bears, he focused on Roy Williams 13 times. Kevin Johnson tied Charles Rogers for second on the team with 9, and it looks like Harrington has a lot of confidence in Johnson- leaving rookie Mike Williams with very little playing time. Detroit threw the ball way to much against Chicago. What success they had last year, they did by running Kevin Jones 25-30 times and not the 8 he got in Chicago.

GB- With Javon Walker out, Terrance Murphy picked up 6 targets. Donald Driver was the team leader for the second week in a row, this time with 8. Also for the second week in a row, Favre threw to his backs heavily, giving them 13 passes (17 last week). Favre has thrown 44 passes in each of the first two games of the season. It’s going to be a long year. The Packers host 2-0 Tampa Bay this week.

MIN- Daunte Culpepper showed me a side of him I haven’t seen in years, as he threw 5 interceptions to the Bengals. Most of those came late in the game, and after they got down 14-0 early, I can only describe Culpepper as being on Tilt. I don’t know if he’s frustrated with the playcalling, but I sure would be. Losing Randy Moss didn’t have to be a big deal if the Vikings took the off-season to refocus their strategy towards the current strengths of the roster. That seems to have not happened. It’s like they’re still running the same exact offensive system.

Up until the very end of the third quarter, Minnesota’s plays were as unimaginative as they were unproductive. There were few or no slants, hitches, screens, draws, and traps called. Instead, it looked like: run, go deep, go deep, punt. But then towards the fourth quarter, things started to open up. The Vikings started throwing those shorter slants and quick hitches. They mixed in a few runs on pass looks, and they looked to exploit the first 15 yards from scrimmage more than the second. At home against the Saints this week, I expect this offense to finally produce.

That said, I just don’t see how Michael Bennett can be this team’s starting running back. He doesn’t catch the ball exceptionally well. He doesn’t run with exceptional power. He doesn’t really do anything really well except run fast. Bennett did start the Bengals game with a couple of great runs on the edge, but then he fumbled going up the middle and then fumbled again a few minutes later twice and it was all over from there for him and for Minnesota.

And I don’t know if Mewelde Moore is the answer for this season either. The Vikings really need more of a playmaker at that position They need someone like Lamont Jordan. So keep an eye on Ciatrick Fason.

Travis Taylor took in 12 targets against the Bengals, and he caught 7 of them. With Minnesota down 27-0 at halftime, rookie Troy Williamson got some action in the second half. He took in 2 passes on 4 targets.

NO- For as long Aaron Brooks in the Saints’ QB, Joe Horn is as steady a target as they come. After getting 13 targets on Monday night, Horn has had one game since the start of 2004 with fewer than 7 passes thrown his way. I’m also impressed with Donte Stallworth this year. He pulled in 8 passes on 12 targets against the Giants. For the year, Donte has 12 catched on 17 throws. For the second straight week, Ernie Conwell had two red zone targets and he has 10 anywhere targets on the season. Conwell is a big part of this offense.

NYG- Eli seems to really enjoy throwing to the 6′5 Plaxico Burress. After giving him 11 passes in week one, Manning threw 10 more Burress’ way on Monday night. But Burress has just 10 catches on those 21 targets so far this season. Jeremy Shockey went 5 for 6 and is now 7 for 8 on the year.

PHI- After relying to much on TO and BW last week (29 of McNabb’s 45 passes), with a big lead the Eagles were able to spread it around against the 49ers. Greg Lewis was clearly the #2 WR on Sunday, getting 7 targets over the entire game. Rookie Reggie Brown picked up 3, all in the second half. TO had 7, but the team leader LJ Smith broke out with 9 catches on 9 targets, 119 yards and a touchdown. Smith is still the only viable TE on this team and this kind of game won’t be out of the ordinary for the tight end. The Eagles’ offensive line did a real nice job protecting McNabb in the face of a very good SF pass rush.

SEA- Bobby Engram is still going strong, with 8 more targets on Sunday. Darrell Jackson was the team leader with 11, but Jerramy Stevens was again well featured, with 5 targets.

SF- Not much doing for the 49ers against Philly, but Arnez Battle is indeed the best receiver on this team. With 6 targets last week and 7 more this past Sunday, Battle has 9 catches on the year for 103 yards. Alex Smith did come in and run three plays before going off for a punt.

STL- Marc Bulger only had to throw 29 times against the Cardinals. Holt and Bruce are still the top pair, with Holt getting 7 targets and Bruce 8. Kevin Curtis has an ankle injury, and he was limited against Arizona, but he still got 4 passes. The Rams should look to strike through the air this week, as they host the Titans.

TB- With an early lead at home, the Bucs didn’t have to throw much. Joey Galloway’s numbers fell hard, with just 2 targets. Michael Clayton got 8, however, and with the 7 he got in week one, he’s Griese’s top threat.

WAS- Of course Santana Moss caught the two big ones, but he also pulled in three other of the 7 total passes thrown his way against Dallas. David Patten got 5 targets, but the production just hasn’t been there so far. There were no trips to the red zone this week, but Robert Royal still got 4 passes thrown to him and Chris Cooley got 3.

AFC and Carolina tomorrow.