Archive for the ‘Pittsburgh’ Category

2006 | Week 2 - Pittsburgh Steelers

0-9 at JAX

Targets stats only this week.

CATCHES / TARGETS:
Ward - 2/8
Haynes - 5/6
Washington - 3/4
Wilson - 1/4
Parker - 3/3
Holmes - 1/3
Miller - 1/3
Tuman - 1/1

2006 | Week 1 - Pittsburgh Steelers

28-17 vs MIA

I’ve been down on the Steelers all preseason. I really thought, and still think, that this team will struggle this season. But in game one, they rallied around their backup quarterback and put forth a solid, home effort.

Willie Parker was by far the most impressive player to me. He ran with great patience and explosiveness - picking the right spots to display each of those skills separately. Parker ran the ball well inside, and excelled when he got around the tackle box; consistently making defenders miss and gaining extra yards. He carried the ball 29 times on Thursday night, and with the Steelers signing Najeh Davenport today and releasing recent acquisition Patrick Cobbs, 29 may end up being Parker’s season high. Nonetheless, he proved, once again, that he is a top level back in this game.

This past summer, the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted both Santonio Holmes and Willie Reid in the entry draft. But it was Nate Washington who made an early statement this season by going up for a big touchdown catch on Thursday. Washington read the pass very well and used his body to position himself in the air to make the catch. Washington is an undrafted, second year pro who should be watched closely in the next few weeks. He received 4 pass targets, catching 2, and also ran the ball on an end around once for 8 yards.

In all, the Steelers win wasn’t as dominant as the final score indicated. But they did play well. Perhaps I overestimated the extent of their demise this season, but after just one game it’s too early to second guess.

Targets
Ward - 7
Parker - 5
Washington - 4
Miller - 3
Holmes - 2

2006 Misc Football Previews - AFC

INDEX

Much of last year’s preview throught the AFC still holds true for this season. The Bengals, for example, return almost exactly the same offense they’ve put out onto the field the last two full seasons. That kind of continuity will continue to reap huge rewards for Cincinnati, and their defense is just average enough that they’ll win a lot of games, but give up a lot of points too. One thing on Carson Palmer, there’s no way he’s 100%. I’ve watched him run in both of the preseason games he’s played in and it’s good to see him up and running this offense. But Palmer is a very good quarterback outside of the pocket, throwing on the run and buying time on the edge. I don’t know if we’ll see a lot of that early in the season. And I don’t think it’ll effect his throwing too much. There’s no better fantasy quarterback in football than Carson Palmer. (Last Season)

For New England, Josh McDaniels begins his 2nd year as the Pats’ OC and 6th season with the organization. Running the ball was New England’s main weakness on offense last season; leading to the first round selection of RB Laurence Maroney. This preseason, Maroney has looked like a future star running back. It’s not believed that his recent knee injury is significant. I think what Maroney has shown in the last few weeks is a glimpse of what is to come. Corey Dillon turns 32 in late October, and although he said that he can still carry a large role, Maroney is the guy.

Another Patriot worth a fantasy look is tight end Ben Watson. He’s entering his third season, and is not only the Pats most reliable receiver at this point, but he was used heavily in the preseason and looked ready to have a breakout season. Normally, Tom Brady’s receivers don’t make for good fantasy options because the ball gets spread around so much in New England, but since we’re talking about tight end numbers, Watson should have a relatively good season for his position.

Turning in an impressive preseason performance for New England has been WR Bam Childress. The former OSU Buckeye is listed at 5′11 185, but he’s probably more like 5′9 175 and can get thrown around on the field. Still, he’s played tough in the games I’ve seen him in, has good enough hands and is able to adjust the ball pretty well. I expect Brady to connect with Childress out of the slot a number of times this season. Fantasy teams in really deep leagues could steal Bam off of free agency.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, there’s no place to go but down. Way too much off season drama to deal with. This is exactly how and why teams don’t repeat. They’ll be lucky if they finish above .500. A September 1 trade for former Patriot Patrick Cobbs is worth noting, however. Cobbs is a 5-9, 205 pound back who showed a great burst through the hole this preseason. His running style and short, powerful build leads me to believe he may get a chance to be a short yardage back for Pittsburgh. Other than that, I wouldn’t touch any Steeler player this season.

The same goes for the Tennessee Titans. Apparently, after seven seasons in the NFL, the Titans just now realized that they didn’t want to put up with Billy Volek’s ego and have decided to throw him overboard. The Titans will probably go 4-12 as a result of their mess of a preseason and the whole thing will end up costing Jeff Fisher his job. Oh, and Vince Young will never be as great an NFL quarterback as Jay Cutler or Matt Leinart.

In San Diego, Phillip Rivers is going to make some mistakes, but he’s still a solid QB who can put the ball into tight spots and this is still a good enough offense to make the playoffs. I’m also very impressed with the depth the Chargers have put together at wide receiver. Eric Parker looks like he can be a solid #2 man, while Kassim Osgood’s size and speed combo makes defenses take notice as a third option. Rashuan Woods and Vincent Jackson are both former high draft picks who are still learning the position but have the physical skills to be NFL good players. And it even looks like the 6′5 Malcom Floyd made enough plays in the preseason to keep a job. He could develop into a contributor as well. The Chargers still lack a true #1 WR, but Keenan McCardell is a good 1B kind of wide out and with Antonio Gates playing the de facto role of 1A while defenses focus on he and LT in the backfield, the Chargers have enough players to make this offense work.

One other thing about the Chargers, since Clinton Portis injured his shoulder and ruined my hopes for a huge season (see below), I think of the remaining top 3 RBs available, LT is the guy to have over LJ and Alexander (read the Seattle post for more on Alexander). LJ has to deal with a retired left tackle, a departed offensive coordinator, and Herm Edwards. LT, on the other hand, only has a new QB to deal with, and that may actually lead to a better statistical season for him. But the biggest reason, is the insurance you can get when you draft LT. There may not be another backup running back in the league right now that is better than Michael Turner. The guy is a smallish, but is all power, speed, and vision.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl XL - Review

21-10 Steelers


• Continued play design excellence from the Steelers led the way.
  If you had to point to one key play of the game, I believe it came sooner than when most would think:
  Early in the second quarter, after the Steelers had just earned their first first down of the game, they came out with a power formation, with everyone lined up tight, and ran Ward on an end-around to the left. The RG on the play began off the snap to pull out right and then did a 360 spin to run left as the lone lead blocker in front of Ward. This move just helped sell the run to the right just a little more and made the play all more effective. And at the end of the play, Seahawks FS Manuel was injured, forcing Etric Pruitt into the game for the remainder of the night. This injury was probably the most crippling blow the Seahawks could have sustained on defense (see below).

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• Two other key plays:
  3rd and 28, late second quarter, Steelers still down 0-3. On the play before, Winstrom beat his man around the left edge and sacked Ben Berger for a big loss. So on third down, the Seahawks come out with just 3 defensive lineman and drop out into coverage in was looked like a relaxed cover 3 defense. The mistake Seattle made here was just rushing three because Winstrom again beat the Steelers LT around the edge but since there was no rush up the middle, Ben Berger had a huge hole to step into and buy all that time along the line of scrimmage. Either Winstrom should not have taken such a wide angle to the QB (knowing he didn’t have inside help) or Seattle should have put four on the line to limit the QB’s throwing and passing lanes. Ward got open because the Seahawks safety on the opposite side (Boulware) played the QB too much and gave up his position on the opposite side of the field. But Ben just had too much time to sit there on the 39 yard line and let receivers get open. The Seahawks’ ultimate mistake on this play was being too conservative on 3rd and 28 and not rushing more than three. I assume they thought that they’d let Pittsburgh settle for a field goal but clearly championship aren’t made by attempting kicks.
  
  Second play of the second half, with Michaels and Madden announcing that Manuel will not return for the game, the Steelers lined up with 3 wide and hand off right to Parker. Tatupu allows himself to be blocked by the RT 10 yards downfield and by the time the rookie MLB had gotten off this block, Parker was behind him. SS Boulware came up to the line of scrimmage quickly, but he played Parker to the outside and Willie made a nice cut in traffic to run up the middle. He probably saw Tatupu being occupied and knew he had room. And FS Pruitt, playing the off side deep, took a terrible angle on the fast Steelers running back, running in too far and then not being about to recover deep as Parker flew right by him. 14-3 Steelers.

---

• Ben Burger is going to face a lot of defenses next season that will beg him to throw the ball deep. He’s shown numerous times this regular season and during the playoffs that he just doesn’t have the arm strength to put a ball over a safety’s head if the coverage is there. That’s one of the reasons the Steelers have been using gadgets to get receivers open down the field. Ben’s limit is probably around 45-50 yards, which isn’t bad, but it’s that extra 10-15 that many NFL QBs can throw that makes all the difference in putting a ball over the top.
  
  The INT he threw to Boulware went 45 yards in the air, from the middle of the field to the sideline. And Ben had time in the pocket and really stepped into that throw. It looked to be pretty much all he had.
  
  On the pass to Ward when Ben ran up to the line of scrimmage and stopped, he threw that ball from the 41 to the 3- again across half the field. Ben didn’t step into that throw, and he almost left it too short and too close to the defender. Ben’s mobility gets in the way a bit too, as he moves too much as he’s throwing to really get good distance.

---

• The holding calls: It’s hard to compare what the refs were calling against Seattle and what they were calling against Pittsburgh because the Seahawks’ defensive line uses mostly bull rushes (straight lines) to get to the QB. The Steelers were constantly trying to use their speed on the edges and up the middle gaps to attack. There were two holding calls on Seattle in the first quarter (one was decline because the player being held picked up the sack anyway) and then the big call on Locklear in the fourth.
  
  On that play which took away a Stevens catch at the Steelers’ 1, Haggans had been timing Hasselback’s snap count (QB’s first Super Bowl experience) and he already had a step on Locklear off the line. Locklear hooked the rusher with his arm and, in my opinion, clearly held Haggans on the play. The flag was thrown before the catch was made, so it’s not like the ref was negating a big play by throwing the flag. Earlier, I had been watching the RT - LE matchup on the other side of the ball to see if there were any similar plays between Max Starks and Bryce Fisher. There was some similar holding going on there, but on those plays Fisher never really had the body position advantage that Haggans did on this particular play. The Steelers OLB had speed and the edge and there’s a good chance the Hasselback doesn’t get that throw off unless Locklear holds him. I’ve got no problem with that holding call.

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• There was a nice moment on the sideline after the Randel El touchdown pass. The former Indiana QB was celebrating with his Steelers QB when Ben was said: “Did you see my block?”

---

• On that Randel El pass to Ward, it was again Pruitt who could be blamed (at least partially) for allowing Ward to get open deep. It’s impossible to know exactly what the called coverage there was, but Pruitt hit immediately up to the line as Ward ran right past him. Marcus Trufant had outside leverage on Ward and stayed with the Super Bowl MVP the entire time but the route was ran far enough away from the Seahawks CB that he could not catch up in time.
  
  Even in the second quarter, when Manuel first went out, Pruitt got caught looking at the QB too much and was late getting over the top on a pass that went off Ward’s finger tips in the end zone. Although all this picking on Pruitt isn’t really fair, as he was the third string FS for Seattle this season- after they lost Ken Hamlin. But maybe the Seahawks could have done more to protect their inexperienced defender.

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• Randel El was on the two yard line, inside the two hashes at the middle of the field, before he took off to chase down Kelly Herndon on that goal line INT. Randel El basically ran two straight lines to catch Herndon. He ran straight upfield to get ahead of Herndon and then turned almost 90 degrees left to move in for the tackle.

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• Ben Berger made the proper read on that INT; he knew before the snap when Tatupu went out wide to cover Randel El coming out of the back field that he had man coverage. But Ben had pressure in his face from Fisher and couldn’t step in his throw.

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• The Colts have been knocked out of the playoffs by the winners of the last three Super Bowls.

---

• Rocky Bernard who pulled up with a hamstring on Herndon’s INT, was also a big loss to Seattle’s defense. I wonder if all the time off the Seahawks had factored into that. The Steelers had been playing elimination games for 8 out of their last 9 weeks while the Seahawks had two byes within 5 weeks.

---

• Darrell Jackson did not catch another pass after being called for pass interference in the end zone (which by the way, was also the right call there- Jackson had Hope beat and it was unnecessary for him to even need to reach out his arm.). Jackson had 5 catches in the first quarter and nothing after. But that wasn’t because the Seahawks weren’t throwing at him. Yet for some reason they stopped the 5 yard outs that they opened the game with. Pittsburgh was still giving Seattle’s receivers 10 yards off the ball on most downs. I think the Seahawks just got a little impatient.

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• Seattle had a hard time running wide to either side of the field- even to the left where they were supposed to be the best. Pittsburgh did a great job setting the edge on those outside runs and then filled the middle with tacklers.

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• Late in the third, when the Seahawks started their drive from their own 2 yard line, they put together a very good looking drive before Hasselback was picked off by Taylor. It seemed like as they started that series backed up so far into their own end, their mindset went back to just thinking about getting first downs with each play, and not winning the Super Bowl. They moved the ball down the field by doing the things that you can do against Pittsburgh’s defense: run up the middle, throw into the flats and to tight ends. It’s unfortunate for them that they couldn’t keep that kind of rhythm for the entire game.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl XL - Part II

Continuing on Part I from yesterday, Len Pasquarelli has his 5 early things to look for in Super Bowl XL.
I’m taking his analysis one step further.

2) LenP writes about Seattle’s rush offense versus Pittsburgh’s rush defense.

This prompted me to think, how has Seattle’s run game fared against teams that are in the top half of the NFL in run defense. And vice versa, how has Pittsburgh’s run defense fared against teams that are in the top half of the NFL in run offense.

So, just like yesterday, here’s a table breakdown of their 2005 regular season opponents:



SEATTLE RUSH OFF vs OPP RUSH DEF							PITTSBURGH RUSH DEF vs OPP RUSH OFF
WEEK	OPP	OPP YPG RANK	OPP YPC RANK	YARDS	YPC		WEEK	OPP	OPP YPG RANK	OPP YPC RANK	YARDS	YPC
1	JAX	14	13	97	5.1		1	TEN	23	20	97	4.2
2	ATL	26	31	163	4.8		2	HOU	15	11	113	4.5
3	ARZ	10	16	163	4.4		3	NE	24	30	80	2.7
4	WAS	13	21	119	5.2		4	bye	-	-	-	-
5	STL	28	32	134	4.5		5	SD	9	6	66	3.1
6	HOU	32	30	320	7.6		6	JAX	10	18	93	2.7
7	DAL	15	24	72	3.3		7	CIN	11	9	91	4.8
8	bye	-	-	-	-		8	BAL	21	27	72	2.7
9	ARZ	10	16	208	6.3		9	GB	30	31	65	2.2
10	STL	28	32	174	4.8		10	CLE	25	22	61	3.2
11	SF	18	11	145	4.5		11	BAL	21	27	104	2.7
12	NYG	12	12	127	3.7		12	IND	16	24	127	4.0
13	PHI	21	10	96	2.3		13	CIN	11	9	102	4.1
14	SF	18	11	185	4.6		14	CHI	8	7	83	4.6
15	TEN	22	25	183	5.5		15	MIN	27	19	54	3.2
16	IND	16	28	173	5.8		16	CLE	25	22	55	2.9
17	GB	23	18	98	3.3		17	DET	26	25	105	4.2
AVG	-	19.1	20.6	2457	4.7		AVG	-	18.9	19.2	1368	3.4


The Steelers finished 2005 giving up the 3rd least amount of rushing yards per game and #1 in average yards per rush.

The Seahawks finished 2005 with the 3rd best rushing yards per game average and #2 in average yards per rush.

Their opponents average rankings, according to the above chart, were very similar.

In the 9 games where the Seahawks faced an opponent ranked in the top half of the NFL in rushing defense, they totaled 1212 yards or 134.7 yards per game. The average of their average yards per carry in those 9 games was 4.38. Impressive.

In the 6 games where the Steelers faced an opponent ranked in the top half of the NFL in rushing offense, they gave up 548 yards or 91.3 yards per game. The average of their average yards per carry allowed in those 6 games was 3.97. Not as impressive.

What’s interesting is that the Steelers did not face many west coast derived offenses this season. They had Norm Chow and Tennessee in week one, Green Bay in week nine, and Detroit in week 16. Yet none of those opponents provide us a fair comparison to Seattle, and not just because they are inferior offenses, but because two of the three games took place on the season’s opening and ending weeks.

On Seattle’s side of the ball, they also did not face many 3-4 style defenses this season. They played the 49ers in week 10 and week 14, rushing for 4.5 and 4.6 yards per carry each time. But the 49ers weren’t a real 3-4 this year nor were they very good. There’s, of course, the Dallas game that is getting a lot of press right now because the Cowboys were really the only true 3-4 team that Seattle faced. But take into consideration a couple of other games:

Week 13 against the Eagles: Philly plays an aggressive style and while they usually have 4 down linemen, they also use their secondary and linebackers a lot like the Steelers do. The Eagles held Seattle to 2.3 yards per carry in that game.

Week nine against the Cardinals: As the season went along, Arizona went back to a more aggressive style that can also be compared to Pittsburgh in terms of scheme (but not talent). In particular, the Cardinals’ use of SS Adrian Wilson near the line of scrimmage after their week 6 bye mimics a lot of what Pittsburgh does with Troy Polamalu. The week 9 game between SEA and ARZ may be something to look at in terms of Seattle’s passing offense, but the 208 yards that the Seahawks put up on the ground in that game don’t really tell us much. The Cards’ front seven was missing several starters.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl XL -Part I

Fantastic preview of Super Bowl XL from Len Paquarelli. In it, he puts forth 5 talking points. Below, is part one of a series this week where I look to take each of his five points one step further.

1) LenP writes: Both teams do not turn the ball over.

During the regular season, the Steelers lost 9 fumbles and threw 14 INTs. They also recovered 15 of their opponents’ fumbles and picked off 15 passes for a turnover total of +7. That was good for 9th best in the NFL, tied with Tampa Bay.

The Seahawks finished the regular season ranked 7th best in turnover ratio, with a +10 rating. They lost fumbles 7 times, threw 10 INTs and recover 11 fumbles and 16 INTs.

I had a feeling that based on the styles these two defenses play, that Seattle was more likely to have achieved a high number of its turnovers against teams who were more likely to make mistakes; while in contrast Pittsburgh’s defensive style is more likely to force turnovers on their own.

So here’s what happens when we break the results from this season down:



SEATTLE 2005							PITTSBURGH 2005
WEEK	OPP	OPP T/O RANK	T/O’s GIVEN	T/O’s FORCED	T/O RATIO		WEEK	OPP	OPP T/O RANK	T/O’s GIVEN	T/O’s FORCED	T/O RATIO
1	JAX	6	5	0	-5		1	TEN	20t	0	4	+4
2	ATL	17	1	0	-1		2	HOU	25t	0	1	+1
3	ARZ	30	0	2	+2		3	NE	20t	1	3	+2
4	WAS	14t	0	1	+1		4	bye	-	-	-	-
5	STL	28t	0	2	+2		5	SD	25t	1	2	+1
6	HOU	25t	1	0	-1		6	JAX	6	4	1	-3
7	DAL	19	3	2	-1		7	CIN	1	2	2	0
8	bye	-	-	-	-		8	BAL	28t	2	3	+1
9	ARZ	30	0	4	+4		9	GB	31t	1	3	+2
10	STL	28t	2	2	0		10	CLE	23t	0	2	+2
11	SF	27	0	1	+1		11	BAL	28t	1	1	0
12	NYG	4t	2	1	-1		12	IND	4t	2	1	-1
13	PHI	23t	0	6	+6		13	CIN	1	4	0	-4
14	SF	27	1	2	+1		14	CHI	11	0	0	0
15	TEN	20t	0	0	0		15	MIN	12	1	3	+2
16	IND	4t	0	1	+1		16	CLE	23t	1	1	0
17	GB	31t	2	3	+1		17	DET	14t	2	2	0
AVG	-	20.8	17	27	+10		AVG	-	17	22	29	+7



I know you can’t control who you play, and Seattle has taken grief for coming out of the NFC West, but only 4 times this regular season did they face an opponent who ranked in the top half of the NFL’s turnover ratio table. In those 4 games, the Seahawks gave away 7 turnovers and forced 3. Pittsburgh played 7 games against opponents in the top half of the NFL’s turnover ratio table. The Steelers gave away 15 and forced 9.

So based on a per game average when facing opponents in this top tier (16), Seattle averaged 1.75 turnovers and forced 0.75 for a -1 per game rating.

Pittsburgh averaged 2.14 turnovers and forced 1.29 for a -0.86 per game rating. That’s a slightly better number overall and it does just barely support my off-hand theory that Seattle’s defense picks up turnovers on a higher rate against teams that are mroe mistake prone.

When you also look at a team by team list of the 16 INTs Seattle picked up this season, they got:
4 ARZ, 4 PHI, 2 STL, 2 DAL, 1 NYG, 1 SF, 1 GB, 1 WAS

Broken down by quarterback:



QB	INT	TOTAL INT	QB RATING
Warner	3	9	85.8
McCown	1	11	74.9
Detmer	2	3	45.1
McMahon	2	8	55.2
Bulger	2	9	94.4
Bledsoe	2	17	83.7
Manning, E	1	17	75.9
Smith, A	1	11	40.8
Favre	1	29	70.9
Brunell	1	10	85.9



Ben Burger played 12 regular season games in 2005. He threw 17 TDs and just 9 INTs and finished with a QB Rating of 98.6. That rating was third best, behind Manning and Palmer, among all NFL QBs who played in at least 6 games.

Week 20 Notes

• Super Bowl:

  Roethlisberger has a chance to become the youngest QB in history to win a Super Bowl at the ripe age of 23 years, 340 days. He is the second youngest to make it to the Super Bowl, trailing only Dan Marino , who 23 years, 127 when he led the Dolphins to the Super Bowl in ‘84. “It is a growing up process,” Roethlisberger said. “This year, I feel a lot older. I’m more comfortable and not run down.”

• Excellent note about Chris Chambers for fantasy footballers looking to ride the Dolphins’ receiver’s second half surge into the 2006 season:

  The two players most affected by the departure of Linehan are QB Gus Frerotte, who was a perfect fit for Linehan’s system but may not have much value in another offense, and WR Chris Chambers, who emerged as a Pro Bowl receiver in Linehan’s system but who is a learn-by-example guy who takes time to learn a new system.

• More ‘06 fantasy news, Larry Johnson has been told that he will enter next season as the featured back.
• Kevin Jones owners will like to hear this:

  [OLT Jeff] Backus criticized soft and swift practice sessions under previous coaches in Detroit and should appreciate Marinelli’s commitment to a more physical, disciplined offense. The beneficiary of the rebuilt line is RB Kevin Jones, who can be expected to get more opportunities under Marinelli, a believer in building around a featured back.

• How likely is it that the NFL may end up with a salary cap for coaches? David Elfin in the Washington Times writes:

  Some owners say clubs like the Redskins have a competitive advantage because they generate high revenue from sources like local broadcast rights, stadium signage and skyboxes that are not pooled and divided among all the league’s teams.
  
  Owners of low-revenue teams have been pushing for more of that money to be pooled….
  
  Tagliabue also said players want a share of the revenue Redskins owner Dan Snyder is paying coaches.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Pittsburgh at Indianapolis - Part II: Resting Your Starters

Divisional Weekend

After losing 17-26 to San Diego on 12.18.06, the majority of the Colts’ offensive starters played in just two series the following week at Seattle and one series in week 17 vs Arizona.

Over the course of the last month, Peyton Manning has completed 10 of 14 passes for 121 yards. Edgerrin James has run the ball 13 times for 41 yards, Marvin Harrison has had 2 passes thrown to him, both completed, for 19 yards. Reggie Wayne has seen 5 passes go his way for 2 completions and 21 yards.

So it is a valid, and quite common, question to ask: how will this layoff affect the Colts?

First of all, consider that this preseason, the Colts were 0-5 and were outscored 72-145; including a 0-38 route at Cincinnati in their final preseason game. But then in the season opener on 09.11.06 at Baltimore, the Colts came up with a 24-7 win.

A closer look at the first half of that contest shows that their offense did in fact come out a little rusty. They had 5 first half possessions, all starting in their own territory. 36 total plays, 177 yards, 5.4 yards per play. They punted 3 times, turned the ball over on downs on a 4th and 1 from the BAL 34, and kicked a field goal from the BAL 2.

Things opened up in the second half, as the Colts put together long touchdown drives on 2 of their 3 possessions in the third quarter, but there’s nothing to take away from this game to think that Indianapolis’ offense won’t start without at least a little rust to dust off against Pittsburgh.

The 2004 Eagles famously rested their starters down the final stretch of that season. They lost 7-20 in week 16 at St. Louis and 10-38 in week 17 vs Cincinnati before getting a first round playoff bye.

Then, in their Divisional Game against Minnesota, the Eagles jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and a 21-7 halftime lead. They had 53 yards rushing and 209 yards passing in that first half, including two drives of 92 yards. Not much rust there.

The 2004 and 2003 Patriots not only won their final regular season games, but they played their starters throughout.

The 2002 Eagles finsihed their regular season without Donovan McNabb or Brian Westbrook and still managed to beat the Falcons 20-6 at home in the Divisional Round matchup. McNabb had missed the team’s final 6 regular season games that season and they also had a playoff bye week to get their QB healthy. Philly scored 14 first quarter points against the Falcons and were up 14-6 at the half.

That same season, the ‘02 Bucs rested Brad Johnson for their final two regular season games, but still came out in the Wild Card round and destroyed the 49ers 31-6.

Those are about the only comparisons I can find, going back to the 2002 season. My impression so far is that the Colts will waste most of the first quarter finding their way, but then eventually begin to pull away. One thing that seems consistent across all of these comparisons, is that having a rested, healthy, and prepared defense is the greatest benefit of having a month off than anything else. Look for the Colts defense to keep them in the game early.

2005 NFL Playoffs - Pittsburgh at Indianapolis - Part I: Looking Back to Week 12

Divisional Weekend

In the absence of a copy of the game tape from the Week 12 Monday Night Game between these two teams, there is at least the nfl.com gamebook.

So on the heels of this weeks’ earlier comments from John Clayton stating that the Colts’ Monday Night win wasn’t as nearly as dominant as it may have seemed in hindsight, what can we expect to see in this week’s rematch?

First off, the Steelers’ offense has certainly looked impressive over the last few weeks. And when considering that two of the Colts’ biggest run defenders are coming off injuries, it looks like both teams are going to be able to put up points in this game.

The pressure is really on the Colts to scratch off any rust that may have accumulated over the last month of meaningless and non-existent games. They are a team that places a high emphasis on playing with the lead, rushing the QB, and turning their opponents desperate mistakes into turnovers.
1. Looking back at the Week 13 game, the Colts were:
   
2. 1/3 red zone
   
3. kicked 4 field goals while scoring just 2 touchdowns
   
4. committed 12 penalties for 106 yards
   
5. had 5 possessions that ended in punts

Looking further, after a successful first quarter on offense, things seemed to slow down for Indianapolis.

Second Quarter
Rushing	Passing
5 attempts - 23 yards (4.6)	10 attempts - 58 yards (5.8)


IND benefited with starting field position from the PIT 36 and 45 to pick up two FGs



Third Quarter
Rushing	Passing
9 attempts - 30 yards (3.3)	9 attempts - 54 yards (6.0)


IND benefited from the PIT failed onside kick to start the second half.
They got the ball at the PIT 37 to start.

There was one drive that the Colts did have start with the ball on their own 20.
They spent 12 plays to go just 43 yards and punted.
And they weren’t necessarily running out the clock yet. They ran 5 times and passed 6.
The score was just 13-7.



Fourth Quarter
Rushing	Passing
10 attempts - 44 yards (4.4)	2 attempts - 3 yards (1.5)


Again the Colts were given good field position, starting on the PIT 36 and gaining 26 yards on 7 straight runs to help run out the clock.

In total, the Colts had 12 possessions on this night.
2 for TD, 4 FG, 5 punts, and one INT.
They ended the game with their average starting field position at their own 35.75.
On their 6 scoring drives, their average starting field position was the PIT 48.3.

…More coming this week.

Week 18 Notes

Playoff related notes:


• The Colts are concerned about Corey Simon’s health and weight. Don’t look for him to be 100%, at least for the Steelers game.
• Tom Brady feels his offense has a lot of room to improve, despite their blowout win over Jacksonville.
• A good note here from Len Pasquarelli:

  For a second consecutive week, Washington’s regular cycle will be disrupted, since the Redskins play a second straight Saturday contest. Plus, the Redskins will have to make a long flight to the Pacific Northwest, never an easy trip. Seattle won all eight games this season at Qwest Field and the Seahawks are now 24-10 at home since the stadium opened in 2002. The home field, from a scoring standout, has been worth about a touchdown more per game for the Seahawks. Seattle lost its only playoff game at Qwest Field, losing last year to the Rams.

• John Clayton does his research too:

  Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau did have an impact on the Colts’ offense. Even though he didn’t beat the Colts, he frustrated them at times. After giving up 10 points in the first two possessions, the Steelers’ defense settled into a nickel approach that used only two defensive linemen. This may be a small lineup, but it gives the Steelers more speed and more coverage options than they normally have in the 3-4. Several times during the game, Manning struggled to find open receivers down field. Occasionally, he came to the bench frustrated. Reggie Wayne came to the sidelines upset that he couldn’t get the ball. Even though the Colts dominated in a 19-point win, the Colts couldn’t put the ball in the end zone, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns on a number of drives. The Colts had 59 offensive plays in that game. They had 366 total yards, but only 286 yards after their 80-yard touchdown pass. The Colts have one of the most efficient offenses in years. The Colts usually get 10 possessions which Manning turns into four touchdown drives. But the Steelers played them well in the red zone. The Colts have had an extra week to look at what happened and try to find ways to beat the Steelers.

• “It had yet to be determined at this writing whether or not the Seahawks would start Kelly Herndon or Andre Dyson at left corner against the Redskins this Saturday, but we hear the team was leaning toward Herndon, who recovered enough from a late-season knee injury to see action in Week 17 but did not start.” (PFW)
• “We hear that Patriots RB Corey Dillon’s leg injuries have limited his effectiveness to such a degree that it has led New England to use its spread offense — with scatback Kevin Faulk as the lone running back — more often.” (PFW)

Non-playoff related notes:


• Gary Kubiak would be a great fit in Houston as their next head coach. I noted back in late October that what little success the Texans’ offense was having earlier in the year, it was when running plays similar to the style that Denver has used with Plummer. Dominick Davis would be a great fit in the Shanahan/Kubiak scheme that has been in place in Denver over the last few seasons. And even if the Texans end up with Reggie Bush, his versatility is a perfect fit for this modified Denver style offense. And, of course, there’s David Carr; a QB who possesses similar outside the pocket skills as Jake Plummer. One of the other things that Denver has done well is evaluate and train their offensive linemen; something that the Texans are in desperate need of. Kubiak in Houston just looks like a real good fit.
• “While there’s no doubt junior USC RB Lendale White earned himself some money with a stellar Rose Bowl performance (20 carries for 124 yards and three TDs) should he decide to declare his eligibility for the draft, we hear there are still some real concerns about his character that could have a bearing on where he’s picked” (PFW)

2005 NFL Playoffs - Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Game Notes

Wild Card Weekend


• There’s no mystery to this game. It’s Colts vs Pats Lite.
  These two teams know each other so well by now, that there’s nothing we don’t already know that is going to decide the winner of this game.
• That said, I do like the Bengals here as they are back in to playing the underdog role. Listening to Marvin Lewis this week leads me to believe he’s been playing that up as much as anything else.
• So how well can the Bengals’ defense stop the run on Sunday? Well, before getting torched by Larry Johnson for 201 yards in week 17, the Bengals’ run defense was actually improving.
  Week 16- Held Buffalo to 67 yards on 25 attempts (2.7 ypc)
  Week 15- Held Detroit to 59 yards on 17 attempts (3.5 ypc)
  Week 14- Held Cleveland to 84 yards on 26 attempts (3.2 ypc)
  Week 13- Held Pittsburgh to 95 yards on 28 attempts (3.4 ypc)
  In total, that’s 96 carries, 305 yards, 3.2 ypc over 4 games.
  Per game, that would be 24 carries, 76.25 yards.
• Carson Palmer is the 4th QB this weekend who is starting in his first career playoff game. On Saturday, first time playoff QBs were 0-2 and if the Giants lose they will be 0-3. And out of the names: Simms, Leftwich, E. Manning, Palmer; if I had to chose one QB to start I’d take Palmer.
• The Steelers under Bill Cowher have never won a road playoff game, according to covers.com.

Week 16 - Pittsburgh Steelers

41-0 at Cleveland

Just a quick note on Ben Burger. In this game against Cleveland, he underthrew a wide open receiver in the first quarter. The play was completed, but as open as the WR was (Randel El, I think) he would have easily scored had the pass had traveled more than 30 yards.

Then in the second quarter, Ben badly over threw a wide open Randel El. A few plays later, on a short dumpoff pass, he looked like he was short arming the ball.

Towards the end of the quarter, Ben did throw a nice 30 yard end zone corner route that was knocked away incomplete, but was nonetheless a good throw. It seems that the thumb problem is keeping him from throwing the ball with consistent accuracy. And his arm motion is different almost every time.

TARGETS(catches)
Ward- 7(7)
Randel El- 5(1)
Wilson- 4(2)
Haynes- 2(1)
Morgan- 1(1)
Miller- 1(1)
Kreider- 1(1)

Thursday Football

Only one game for now. Things ran behind. I’ll post more games later tonight and the picks should be up either tonight or tomorrow morning.

Pittsburgh - Green Bay

Pittsburgh Steelers:
I’ll never underestimate the depth of the Steelers after their week 17 ripping of Buffalo when the Bills were at home and needed a win to get into the playoffs. And even when they had to start Tommy Maddux earlier this year against Jacksonville, as bad as Maddux was, they were in a position to win that game in overtime.

At the season’s halfway point, the Steelers are just 25th in the league in total yards per game. But that is a stat that lies. They are 5th in the league in average rushing yards per game, also a stat that lies. Because of the leads Pittsburgh has played with, take a look at their average yards per rush/pass. They are 18th in average yards per rush and 7th in average yards per pass. Those numbers are a little skewed too, but if you put it all together, you’ve got an offense that should probably be rated around 10-12 in the NFL. The Steelers are just 31st in third down efficiency, but that should also be factored in to when those uncoverted third downs are coming. Pittsburgh ranks 12th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage (57.1%), so I’m not concerned about their ability to convert a third down when they need to.

Pittsburgh ranks 5th in the NFL in point differential, 5th in turnover edge, and 6th in penalty yards edge; three of the best stats to look at to see how a team is playing.
TARGETS(catches):
Wilson- 3(1)
Ward- 2(1)
Randle El- 2(0)
Miller- 2(2)
Parker- 2(1)
Kreider- 2(2)
Staley- 2(2)
Haynes- 1(0)


Green Bay:
Samkon Gado wasn’t Green Bay’s first choice at running back going into this game, but Reshard Lee was pulled in the first quarter after losing a fumble and it was Gado for the rest of the way. I first wrote about Gado on 10.24.05 when I found a quote on PFW of one scout comparing him to Willie Parker. Well, Gado looks bigger than Parker, and he’s not nearly as explosive of a runner. And if Gado truly has 4.4 speed, it takes him a few strides to get going that fast; whereas Willie Parker is able to hit his top gear in just a couple of steps. Gado did show good ball security though, and he was a decent enough receiver out of the backfield.

The Packers are 29th in the league in turnover differential. They are 30th in the league in rushing yards per game and dead last in average rush per game. They are doing something well; Green Bay ranks 2nd in the NFL in third down effeciency. TARGETS(catches):
Driver- 9(5)
Franks- 7(3)
Lee- 7(3)
Chatman- 5(4)
Henderson- 3(3)
Gado- 1(1)
Williams- 1(1)

Thursday Football

I’ve got something to say here, so just two games for now.
Maybe more later.

New Orleans Saints:
Below, under the stats, I put an asterik next to Ernie Conwell. The stats say he didn’t have a catch, but that’s because both he and the Saints were absolutely screwed by the NFL’s so-called replay policy.

Dear Socrates:

“I think that football doesn’t need instant replay. It’s better off without it.”

“How can you say that? Think about how silly it would be that a game may be decided by a wrong call and in this age of technology and instant everything, we can’t use a tv monitor to get the play right.”

“Okay, agreed. So tell me why it is then, that every play isn’t reviewable.
Why are plays ‘blown dead’? Why do we need ‘challenges’ under your arguement? “

The above story is a dramatization of this:
-The current use of NFL replay is horrible. Refs purposely let plays go on so that they can be reviewed, but if there isn’t enough evidence to overturn, the plays stays the same, despite what that ref may have originally thought. And that only can happen if a team has and chooses to use a challenge.
The NFL has the best referees in the world.
Why don’t they use them.

Make every play a reviewable play. Let refs call the game as they see it.
Make every play a reviewable play.

Oh, and the Saints aren’t playing bad football. They were rolling over the Rams in this game for the first quarter. But they’re not playing good football either, or else they would have continued to blow out St Louis.
TARGETS(catches):
Stallworth- 11(4)
Hakim- 9(6)
Stecker- 7(3)
Henderson-6(2)
Smith- 3(2)
Conwell- 2(0)*
Hilton- 1(0)
Karney- 1(1)


St. Louis Rams:
If the Saints had any luck at all, it would still be bad luck (or however that saying goes). St Louis trailed this game 7-17 in the fourth quarter, but they could have easily been down by 20 instead of 10. To their credit, the Rams never moved from their game plan, and they steadily pulled their way back into contention. But don’t let the final score fool you, this was a game that the Rams could have very easily lost (see above rant).

St. Louis might have injuries at key positions all over the field, but their offensive line did a real good job in this game allowing Jamie Martin operate the offense.

Jeff Wilkins missed a 48 yard field goal in the first quarter. It was right down the middle, and about five yards short. He must have had the wind in his face or something.
TARGETS(catches):
McDonald- 8(2)
Faulk- 6(5)
Curtis- 5(4)
Looker- 3(3)
Jackson- 3(2)
Manumaleuna- 1(1)
Thompson- 1(1)




---

Pittsburgh Steelers
What can you say. These guys tell you what they are going to do and most of the time, they do it. Run. Stop the run, pressure the quarterback. The recipe on how to beat them is there, but many can’t or don’t use it. Oh, and look at how many players caught a pass from Ben.
TARGETS(catches):
Miller- 6(4)
Ward- 4(3)
Wilson- 3(0)
Randel El- 2(0)

Cincinnati Bengals
If you’d ask Charlie Weis how to beat the Steelers defense, he’d probably say stretch the field with 4 and 5 wideouts, and throw short passes. And why did Cincinnati struggle to move the ball in this game? They ran mostly 2 and 3 wide sets and fell victim to what Pittsburgh does best. If you only give them three guys to cover, they’ll blitz you from all sides and still be able to play a safe cover 2- under man.

The best way to beat that is to declare off the line of scrimmage 4 or 5 wide and make them put a man on each of them. It’s something Indianapolis hasn’t been able to do to New England, and it’s something Cincinnati didn’t do to Pittsburgh.

The IND/NE comparisons don’t stop there for me. This Steelers/Bengals matchup is very similar in so many ways. Cincinnati reminds me a lot of the 2002 or 2003 Colts and I’m afraid they may have just as hard of a time beating the Steelers as the Colts do the Pats.

And as many expected, the Bengals defense had a hard time stopping the Steelers’ run game. They are too undisciplined, and too inexperienced to do what they need to do.

Chris Henry, you have to catch that first touchdown throw. You just have to. The Bengals scored their first and only touchdown of the game with a minute and fifty seven seconds left in the fourth quarter. I said last Thursday that the Steelers would have been my best bet for the week if I knew on Thursday (when we submit our picks) Ben Burger was playing. He did, and it really was that easy for the Steelers.
TARGETS(catches):
TJ- 11(7)
CJ- 8(4)
Perry- 5(5)
RJohnson- 4(2)
Henry- 3(0)
Washington- 2(1)
Kelly- 2(2)
JJohnson- 1(0)

Tuesday Football

Just a couple games tonight, as I work to catch back up:

Jacksonville Jaguars
Greg Jones was a surprise starter in Fred Taylor’s absence (all indicators pointed to Pearman) and the former Seminole did a good job for the Jags when running in between the tackles. I know Jones wasn’t happy when the Jags asked him to be a fullback this year, so it’s nice to see him getting some time with the football. Alvin Pearman looked like he was trying to bounce the ball wide to many times.

A few weeks ago, I speculated that the Jags would end the year with around 12 wins. I’m not so certain about that anymore. Their schedule looks relatively easy after they come off their bye this week, but I really think they should have been able to hand it to this Steelers team- without Ben, Ward, and off that big Monday night win in San Diego. 12-4 is still very possible, based on their schedule, but this team has further to go than I thought.

Nice one handed touchdown catch by Matt Jones, but that’s still really all he can do well right now.
TARGETS(catches):
Williams- 9(3)
Smith- 8(3)
Pearman- 5(5)
Brady- 3(3)
MJones- 2(2)
Wilford- 2(2)
Wrighster- 1(0)
GJones- 1(1)

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers tried to keep their pass plays simple for Tommy Maddox (lots of screens, quick hits), but he still managed to throw two first quarter INTs and the game-winning INT in OT. And their first scoring drive was aided by a long pass interference penalty on Jacksonville that was caused mostly because Maddux underthrew his intended receiver by so much, the Jacksonville DB wasn’t able to turn and adjust to the ball properly because he didn’t think the pass would be so badly underthrown.

By the time the fourth quarter had started, the Jags had more than twice the total yardage as the Steelers and Pittsburgh’s two big plays came courtesy of their special teams (Randal El punt return TD) and Jacksonville’s defense (aforementioned pass interference penalty).
TARGETS(catches):
Randel El- 10(3)
Miller- 6(4)
Wilson- 4(1)
Morgan- 4(2)
Parker- 2(0)
Haynes- 1(1)

—
Miami Dolphins
On the Dolphins first drive, they ran an end-around with Chambers that went for 19 yards. Two plays later, they ran that same great looking reverse that went for 61 yards (Chambers would have scored had he not stepped out of bounds) in week one against Denver. This time, it would have be good for a 40 yard TD had it not been called back by penalty.

I know Miami needs to work in Ricky Williams, but the difference between he and Ronnie Brown right now is great enough to consider keeping Brown at 20+ snaps a game.

All three of Wes Welker’s catches came in the fourth quarter.

Miami’s offensive line really struggled with the speed of this Bucs’ defense.
TARGETS(catches):
McMichael- 8(3)
Booker- 7(1)
Williams- 6(6)
Chambers- 5(3)
Welker- 4(3)
Brown- 3(2)
Morris- 3(2)
Gilmore- 2(1)
Boston- 1(0)
Heller- 1(0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs Oline has done a good job this year in both run and pass blocking, but the latter is in part because Griese has done a good job delivering his passes on time. Now that Simms is the starter, it will be interesting to see how their line will hold up when their quarterback becomes more indecisive, as young QBs are prone to do. They did pretty well against the Dolphins in the second half of this game.

And for those that did not see Griese’s injury, it was very similar to Ben Burger’s on Monday night last week. But, obviously, the consequences of the hit were very different.

Tampa Bay really dominated the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense. As mentioned, their front four had their way with the Dolphins line. This really is such an improved run defense with a healthy McFarland and with the addition of Hovan.

Normally young QBs struggle the most on third downs, and the Bucs are a 8-10 play drive offense. This is going to be a tough trick for them to pull off if Simms has a hard time moving the chains.

Backups usually look for receivers they practice with on the second team, and Simms found Ike Hilliard a couple of time in key situations on Sunday.
TARGETS(catches):
Galloway- 14(9)
Smith- 4(2)
Clayton- 3(2)
Hilliard- 2(2)
Becht- 1(1)
Pittman- 1(1)
Alstott- 1(1)