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2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Cleveland Browns

Sunday, August 12th, 2007

Romeo Crennel - third season as head coach
Rod Chudzinski - first season as offensive coordinator

Background:
Rob Chudzinski comes from two years of work with San Diego, as their TE coach. His move to be the Browns OC only further raises the profile of Kellen Winslow in Cleveland’s offense. In addition to Chudzinksi’s time with Antonio Gates, Rob has worked with K2 previously when he was the OC at UM from 2001-03. His hiring by the Browns is a clear effort to better utilize the most athletic and instinctive tight end in the game (when, you know, healthy…).

Philosophy:
It’s still early to tell, but given the situation at quarterback, I expect to Browns to base their game on the run and use a lot of playaction to get Winslow involved. The Browns have two good running backs now (below) that compliment each other well and enough talent at the receiving position to improve from one of the worst offenses in 2006 to somewhere in the 15-20 range, at least.

Players
Jamal Lewis is down from the 250-255 lbs he’s played at in recent years, weighing in at a svelt 235 lbs in 2007. In the Browns first preseason game against the Chiefs, Lewis looked as strong as ever, but much faster to the hole and even a bit of a threat again around the edge. Lewis was catching the ball well out of the backfield and looks like a very different runner.

Adding to the optimism for Lewis, he signed a one year contract in the offseason and is really playing with something to prove.

“I’m with a new team, so I felt as if I needed to do something new,” he said of his weight loss. “The Browns say they plan on running me a lot more, and I have to be ready.

“This is a fresh start for me, and I want to take it to another level.”

In a recent USA Today article, Lewis pulled no punches on his situation with his former team.

“It was just a bad deal, man,” he says. “I didn’t get along with Coach (Brian) Billick. He didn’t get along with me. There was just a lot of turmoil going on. I needed to go.”

Lewis rips the Ravens for their personnel moves, maintaining the team didn’t do enough to support the rushing game.

“What did they do to make the running game better? Did they bring in new offensive linemen? No,” he says. “They brought in a new quarterback (Steve McNair) … but got rid of Darnell Dinkins, a blocking tight end.

“You know (Brian) Billick. He wants to throw the ball, anyway. I didn’t fit their scheme. I was ready to go. I was tired of just being beat up and talked about.”

Lewis stiff-arms the idea that the ankle problems and that offseason at a prison camp contributed to the spiral.

“That didn’t bother me,” he says. “That just made me go out and want to do better. It was just like they weren’t letting me do my job and they weren’t supporting me. … A 2,000-yard rusher does not forget how to run the football. Somebody may forget how to rush the football. Now I’m in a better place. ”

Interesting words from Lewis, who I think is still at part to blame for his poor seasons in Baltimore. But this new Lewis looks like a real threat again, and a probable top 10 RB in 2007.

Lewis’ addition allows Jerome Harrison to assume the third down, change of pace role he’s more suited for. This should be a good duo.

And the Browns offensive line will be better in 2007. Injuries and poor personnel led the 2006 OL to 31st ranking 3.71 adjusted line yards per carry, according to Football Prospectus. The drafting of Joe Thomas helps immediately, as well as the offseason signing of left guard run blocking specialist Eric Steinbach. That left side duo will be a force this season, if healthy.

At receiver, the Browns intend to use former college quarterback Josh Cribbs as a slash player, ala Kordell Stewart but more like the Jets’ Brad Smith. Right now, Cribbs is more of a threat out of the backfield and in space than as a pure receiver, but he’s learning the position in his third NFL season and has the size and skills to be slot / special teams / 3rd down a playmaker on this team.

Braylon Edwards’ career won’t live up to the talent he possesses until he becomes more of a consistent and reliable option. Considering this passing game will be built around Winslow, I’d expect to see Edwards’ production to continue to be disappointing.

Charlie Frye suffers a bit from the Joey Harrington syndrome, where he’ll look solid for 90% of his plays and then do enough in the remaining 10% to completely screw his team.

Frye has Elway-like skills in the pocket and when on the move. He’s sees the field well and is surprisingly elusive, but just doesn’t make the best decisions to be a real #1 QB for a playoff team. Derrick Anderson seems to be struggling still with the speed on the NFL game, so Frye will be in early until Quinn is ready to play.

The Browns defense, in their third year with the 3-4, finally looks like its ready to be in the top half of the league. They are still old on the DL, but their linebacking unit - with the offseason addition of 3-4 OLB specialist Antwan Peek and the continued development of star OLB Kamerion Winbley - could be one of the best in the league. In the secondary, Leigh Bodden is the most underrated DB in the NFL, but needs to stay healthy for an entire season to earn the accolades he deserves. Fast-rising rookie CB Eric Wright should start on the opposite side to form a decent unit in the defensive backfield. Peek should help with their run defense, but the Browns will likely still be in the 20-32 ranking against the rush.

2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Green Bay Packers

Sunday, August 5th, 2007

Mike McCarthy - 2nd season as head coach
Joe Philbin - 1st season as offensive coordinator, 5th with team

Background:
The Packers began last December with a record of 4-8, following a crushing 10-38 home loss to the Jets. After that loss, the 2006 Packers rallied to string together four straight wins to help make their season not be the complete disaster it was destined to be under Mike Mularkey’s first year as head coach.

But when you look at how the Packers won four of those last four games of their 2006 season, you’ll see that it was done against a poor list of opponents and on the back of a rapidly improving defense.

In only their 30-19 win in San Francisco did Brett Favre have a good game, statistically. Ahman Green never went over 79 yards in either of those four contents. Donald Driver, meanwhile, was the go-to man for the first three games, catching 25 passes for 329 yards. Favre relied too heavily on Driver down the stretch last season mostly because Driver was the only consistent option for Favre to throw to downfield.

Football Prospectus ranked the DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value over Average) for the Packers’ offense in those last four games at: 16.2%, -55.6%, -24.6%, and 14.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, their defense’s DVOA for those four games was: -14.1%, -71.4%, -61.26, and -91.2%.

One of those wins came in the rain against the Vikings as Tarvaris Jackson made his first NFL start one to forget. Green Bay’s last win of the year was against the Bears, who were resting many of their starters for the playoffs. Another win came against the Lions, who were mired in game six of a seven game losing streak.

So how good can the Packers feel about 2007? They have a solid defense that should be stout against the run this coming season, but the offense will again rely on the production of youngsters in order to be competitive.

Philosophy:
The Packers are a zone blocking run offense that like to throw the ball down the field along the sidelines. There’s reason for optimism as the young offensive line of 2006 (both starting guards were rookies, Spitz and Colledge) should continue to improve in their second season together.

McCarthy will continue to call the plays and the team should improve their understanding of the offense based on the high number of returning players and coaches involved this system.

The Packers were the second worst team in the NFL on first downs and in the red zone in 2006 (based on DVOA). That poor number was a result in a pass-heavy offense that threw the ball on first down 53% of the time. The Packers were even pass-heavy when playing in the lead; throwing 50% of the time.

McCarthy expects to concentrate more on the run this season, but it remains to be seen whether he can stay true to that word, especially with the question marks at running back.

Players:
Driver was thrown 172 passes in 2006, second most in the NFL behind Torry Holt. He converted on 55% of those attempts for a career high 92 catches. Driver’s production has eclipsed 1200 yards in each of the last three seasons, so he’s been as consistent as any WR in the league. His catch total should drop based on the improved health of Jennings (below) and the addition of youth into this part of the depth chart.

Showing a unique ability to quickly pick up the offense as a rookie WR, Greg Jennings wasn’t able to return to his early season level after he sprained his ankle midseason. When healthy, Jennings was averaging about 5 catches a game for close to 90 yards. Obviously those numbers are too high to project as probable over 16 games (80 - 1440), but as a solid #2 option on a team that will struggle to match last season’s win total, 1000 yard seasons out of Driver and Jennings isn’t out of the question especially when you consider the depth chart at WR includes only Robert Ferguson and a slew of raw talent ( Jones, Martin, Clowney ).

In the backfield, McCarthy has made comments leading to believe he’d prefer to have a starting running back, but is comfortable with a rotation if needed:

“You’d always like to see someone jump up and grab a position, because I think when that happens, obviously productivity increases,” he said. “But once again, you want as much competition. It’s a long season, God forbid injuries are part of our game. So I’m very comfortable if it takes three, if it takes two, if it takes one. That doesn’t bother me at all. That’s the job of the coaching staff, to take advantage of the personnel.”

Vernand Morency, who has added about 8 pounds to his frame, is expected to get the first chance as starter, but already this season has raised doubts about his durability with an early knee injury. Morency is much more of a slashing runner, compared to the departed Ahman Green. Both are fast, but Green was punishing while Morency’s style is more elusive. And as a result, he’s struggled in the past to not only be healthy but also that consistent one-cut, zone blocking type runner.

Out of all the backs, Brandon Jackson is probably the best fit for this offense, but he’s young player who left Nebraska early and has been slow to develop so far this preseason.

Watching him run with the first team offense in their team scrimmage rebroadcasted on the NFL Network this week, Jackson showed the great ability to catch the football he’s be acclaimed for. As a runner, he has good vision, quick feet, runs low to the ground, gets skinny in the hole, and seems to always fall forward. He’s not particularly fast and doesn’t have a lot of moves in space, but looks like a reliable 4.2 yards per carry back who can line up in the slot and be a weapon out wide as well.

Rookie DeShawn Wynn is a power back out of Florida who could factor in near the goal line because of his size and running style. And Noah Herron’s versatility and reliability in pass protection will see him on the field on third and longs and in the two minute drill; thus limiting the amount of time Jackson or Morency will see anyhow.

It just doesn’t look like a good situation for fantasy owners. The passing game should still rule in Green Bay.

2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Dallas Cowboys

Friday, August 3rd, 2007

Wade Phillips - 1st season as head coach
Jason Garrett - 1st season as offensive coordinator

First, I’m down on the Cowboys because their web site navigation is awful. Not only are their coaches and executive bios based on unlinkable coldfusion and javascript anchor tags, but the scrolling inside those resulting pop-up windows is irksome. They’ll win at least one less game this year because of it, I swear.

Background:
Jason Garrett, a backup QB for the Cowboys from 1993-1999, takes over as offensive coordinator for Dallas. This is the first time ever Garrett will be in charge of an offense, so there’s likely to be a bit of a learning curve this season.

Garrett, a Princeton graduate, seems to be a very good student of the game. He was never particularly talented as a quarterback but managed to hang on to a backup job for many years in the league. After retiring, he served as the Dolphins quaterbacks coach for two years under Nick Saban.

Jerry Jones brought in Garrett before he had a head coach, a move that shows just how much faith the Cowboys’ owner has in the 41 year old.

Philosophy;
Quite simply, Bill Parcells’ offense was boring and predictable. What Garrett and new head coach Wade Phillips have brought to this team is a new, creative outlook that should benefit the skill position players most.

Already through minicamp and the start of training camp, I’ve seen the Cowboys line up receivers in a number of new spots, compared to last season. The one player who’ll likely benefit most from this new offense is tight end Jason Witten. After two straight years of 65 catch, 750 yard seasons, I’d expect Witten’s numbers to approach his 2004 output of 87 catches and 980 yards.

Garrett intends to use a Ernie Zampese style, timing based offense to take advantage of Tony Romo’s ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Garrett will also be calling the plays.

Unlike Parcells, both Philips and Garrett stress the need to move players around the field to get them involved and into positions to make plays.

“It’s about using our personnel,” Phillips said. “That’s No. 1 with me.”

When Phillips was in Denver, he knew how to get Shannon Sharpe going in the offense. Sharpe had 1,000 yard seasons in both 1993 and 1994.

Players:
Besides Witten, Terrell Owens should rebound from his hand-injury 2006 season as well. TO only put up 1180 yards in 16 games of action, and had a lot of drops throughout the season.

Terry Glenn’s early season injury troubles could lead to Patrick Crayton playing a bigger role in the offense early on. Crayton excelled last season against Arizona when Glenn was unable to make the road trip to Phoenix.

The running back situation is still a bit of a committee, but based on talent and production alone, I think we’ll continue to see Marion Barber get more chances and Julius Jones less. Jones had double the carries last season, and is more of a boom or bust back who excels between the 20s. Barber, meanwhile, scored 16 total TDs in 2006 despite just 135 carries and 23 receptions. He’s a consistent back who’s entering his third NFL season and should improve his yardage output.

As for Romo, I’m just not sold. Not only does he have to deal with the awful end to his season (and I don’t mean the dropped hold), but he’s just got a lot of pressure on him now as the starter, playing for a new contract, in a new offense. He’s highly athletic, and has that quick release, but when he was putting up good numbers last season, he was still forcing balls into spots that he shouldn’t have been throwing to.

That said, he’s got two great playmakers in Witten and Owens who can offer Romo the ability to continue to force passes into tight spots.

In the end, I think this Cowboys’ defense is going to be a real strong unit, perhaps a top 5 one. And that means the Cowboys will spend less time passing the football and trying to comeback from big leads (where most of passing leaders in the league gain on other teams in total yardage).

One final note for Football Prospectus/Outsiders types, the Cowboys were 2nd best in the league last season in third down efficiency, at 48.8%. Readers of that publication know that given Dallas’ mediocre success in 2006 on first and second downs, their efficiency on 3rd down is likely to balance out lower this season.

More training camp news

Sunday, July 29th, 2007

Another long wrap up of news up over at the sportsfrog.

I’ll probably be adding a sidebar feature somewhere soon to track the NFL related stuff that used to go here, but is up there now.

Mike Sando begins work at ESPN

Wednesday, July 25th, 2007

With Matt Mosley off this week taking part in the birth of a child, ESPN has rolled out former Seahawks beat writer and one of the MSM blogging pioneer’s, Mike Sando.

I’ve added Sando to the roster of ESPN writers on the left. He’ll be doing good work for them and Pro Football Weekly.

Training camp news

Wednesday, July 25th, 2007

In addition to posts on this site, I’ll be updating and linking current news all preseason on sportsfrog.com.

Wednesday’s NFL Training camp new roundup is up now.

Tarvaris Jackson’s progress in Minnesota

Wednesday, July 25th, 2007

Second year Minnesota quarterback Tarvaris Jackson apparently has a unique ability to wrap his head and his mouth around the very complex west coast offense he’s been in under head coach Brad Childress.

“Sometimes we have calls that are 15 or 16 words long in the huddle,” Rogers said. “When he got here last year, during his rookie minicamp, he was able to spit them out almost immediately. He put it all together pretty quickly. Now, you just give him a play and he can give you a formation for every occasion. That was probably the most pleasant surprise I had with him: how bright he is.”

As the article points out, now it comes down to decision making with the young quarterback. He can obviously get the team in and out of the huddle, but the Vikes need Jackson to protect the football better than he did in his two starts as a rookie last season.

How the Chargers ended up with LT, and not Michael Vick

Sunday, July 22nd, 2007

History certainly has a way of making people looking smarter than they actually were at the time.

“We were taking Michael Vick – unless we got the trade we wanted,” says Chargers GM A.J. Smith, then Butler’s assistant and confidant. “We wanted Tim Dwight. If he wasn’t included in the deal, Michael Vick was going to be the quarterback here.”

We were committed to taking him,” Smith says, “and I don’t speak out of both sides of my mouth. That’s a fact. John Butler was committed to Michael Vick – unless we got an attractive package. The only player interested was Atlanta. John said, ‘No Tim Dwight, no Michael Vick.’

Colts LT Tarik Glenn retires

Sunday, July 22nd, 2007

In what has been a very quiet offseason for a Super Bowl Championship team, the Colts made a little news on Friday when it was announced that LT Tarik Glenn was retiring.

Indianapolis has seen things go pretty well these past few months, especially considering all the drama the Steelers put themselves through the prior offseason.

Quiet offseasons are one of the keys to being able to repeat as champions, and the Colts have to think they’ve done a good job at that. But losing their 31 year old left tackle takes a little out from underneath the foundation.

Football Guys has more on the impact Glenn’s retirement will have.

Football Guys Blog

Tuesday, July 17th, 2007

Well, I was originally excited to see that the Football Guys had added a blog to their newly designed web site.

But now that they have started putting content in it, as of late last week, I gotta say… slow it down man.

Supplemental Draft Success History

Tuesday, July 17th, 2007

Len Pasquarelli break down teams with past supplemental draft success.

Of the 34 prospects from the supplemental drafts between 1977 and 2005, nine never played even a single snap in a regular-season game and 16 never started. Only four ever made a Pro Bowl appearance. Just five carved out careers that included 100 or more games. The average career span for those 34 players is 44.1 regular-season appearances, the equivalent of less than three full seasons in the league. None has been elected to the Hall of Fame, although wide receiver Cris Carter, who ranks second in NFL history in career receptions, should become the first in the next few years.

Still, I’ve got to agree with the Ravens when they say:

“If you would tell us that we drafted Jared Gaither in the fifth round of the 2008 draft, we’d be doing handstands and cartwheels.”

More New York Drama

Tuesday, July 17th, 2007

First there was this note about Eli Manning’s personality coach and now the NY Post runs a story on Tom Coughlin disposition.

“I think there’s no question I can improve,” Coughlin admitted to The Post recently about his personal relations. “I’m going to try to be more patient, I’m going to try to be someone who understands again the jobs and responsibilities of those around me.”

Is the new Giants Stadium going up on Broadway?

Buffalo’s running back by committee

Tuesday, July 17th, 2007

For the record, Dick Jauron says:

We think it’s in everybody’s best interest that we do have more than one back that carries the load,” said Jauron back in March. “If you do that and you have that kind of depth, you can rotate them, you can keep them fresh and they don’t get as beat up. You can go with a guy that is a little bit hotter on a given day and sometimes it’s a different guy. There’s no reason why it shouldn’t work that way, because every day is not your best day.”

That’s fine. I wasn’t really that sold on Marshawn Lynch anyway. I don’t think he’s an everydown back and I don’t know why he was drafted so high because of that.

2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - San Francisco 49ers

Friday, July 13th, 2007

Mike Nolan - 3rd season as head coach
Jim Hostler - 1st season as offensive coordinator, 3rd with team

Background
Hostler is a former small college cornerback who went on to coach at his alma mater for nine seasons before moving over to the NFL in 2000 to become KC’s offensive quality control coach.

After a year with the Chiefs, Hostler spent two seasons with the Saints, under Jim Haslett’s regime, working as their quality control coach and as an assistant to the wide receivers. He then spent 2003 with the Jets, under Herm Edwards, as their QB coach and again in 2004 as the Jets’ WR coach.

Now in his third season with Mike Nolan and the 49ers, Hostler has been working as the QB coach for Alex Smith since the three started work with the team in 2005.

One of the more interesting notes about Hostler is the preparation he has done over the last two years for this opportunity.

Here’s Nolan, as quoted in Hostler’s bio:

“As I interviewed Jim, I was very impressed that he had been creating his own game plans each week the last few years,” Nolan said. “He brought out the game plans that he had been putting together for every game. I never saw them, because all I wanted to see the last two years was our actual coordinator’s game plan, but Jim brought his to me.”

Hostler also has a strong work relationship with the team’s new QB coach, Frank Cignetti. Hostler and Cignetti were at IUP together and also worked with the Saints at the same time. Cignetti was brought in to coach the QBs after spending 2006 with John Bunting at UNC as the Tar Heels’ offensive coordinator.

Philosophy
Kevin Lynch, of the San Francisco Chronicle ran an excellent overview of how the 49ers offense has changed over the last two seasons and how it is taking shape under Hostler’s leadership.

Smith said his rookie season (2005) under now-Packers coach Mike McCarthy was about a rigid passing game based on progressions and short quarterback drops.

“We weren’t throwing the ball downfield; defenses were on top of us,” Smith said Wednesday after the team’s second-to-last practice. “It was like we were the passive ones and (the defenses) were the aggressors.”

Then came Norv Turner, and the offense changed dramatically. “It was the opposite,” Smith said. “We were taking seven-step drops, throwing the ball downfield.”

That offense performed relatively well in the middle of the field on first- and second-down because of the threat of the run. But when the 49ers got inside the opponents’ 20 or needed a third-down conversion, they floundered.

They finished 26th in third-down efficiency and 29th in red-zone production.

So this season, Hostler is bringing in elements of both offenses Smith has been a part of. With third downs and red zone execution an obvious point of emphasis, the team is trying out new formations (eg, empty backfields) and other innovative ways to get the ball out of Smith’s hands quickly.

But make no mistake, this 49ers team is about playing good defense and running the football.

And we can talk about Frank Gore all we want, but this is one of the best offensive lines in the game today. They are a drive blocking unit with a good mix of veteran and young talent.

According to Football Outsiders’ OL stats, SF was second in the league last season in percentage of 10+ yard runs (26%, behind only SD). That success also translated into the third best average yards per rush and the sixth best average rush yards per game in the NFL last season. But the total offense ranked 26th in yards per game, mostly because their passing game was too one-dimmensionally bad. Too many deep drops, not enough reliable receiving options.

George Warhop is entering his third season as Mike Nolan’s offensive line coach. Warhop has 10 years experience specifically working with offensive lines at the NFL level.

Players
The first 49er taken in fantasy drafts will be Gore. But considering how important this OL is to his success, and given his history of injuries at UM, whomever ends up as Gore’s backup with be a valuable pickup as well.

Michael Robinson, the former Penn State QB who plays the game with the toughness of a LB, is the most talented of the backups. But I doubt he’s learned enough about the position to be counted on full time if Gore were to experience any significant injury.

I like Maurice Hicks, but he’s more of a change of pace back. At 5-11, 196 he and Robinson (6-1, 218) would form a solid duo in the absence of Gore; with Robinson seeing the majority of the TDs.

In the passing game, the 49ers will certainly use TE phenom Vernon Davis more in their search to improve on third downs and in the red zone. Davis himself said recently on the NFL Network that he is much more prepared to make an impace this season than he was this time last year.

49er fans should also be excited about the offseason signing of Darrell Jackson. He and Arnaz Battle finally give the team two reliable options out wide. Neither is really a #1 receiver, but both are smart, elusive players who can contribute in this run-oriented offense.

2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Index

Thursday, July 12th, 2007

For the third season, the NFL football offensive coordinator previews are back.

After two years of doing this, I’ve learned that it’s nearly impossible to cover all 32 teams before the season starts.

So I’ll continue to focus more on the intriguing situations and new regimes across the NFL.

This post will act as the index for 2007, just as this one did for 2006 and this one for 2005.

I’ll update the team links as the entries are made.

A new category has been added to track them all, available in the top nav under ‘nfl preview‘. Categories for 2007, 2006, and 2005 have also been added.

First up for 2007 are the San Francisco 49ers, due out Friday.

AFC
New York Jets	Cincinnati Bengals
Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots	Cleveland Browns
Buffalo Bills	Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts	Oakland Raiders
Tennessee Titans	Denver Broncos
Houston Texans	Kansas City Cheifs
Jacksonville Jaguars	San Diego Chargers
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles	Chicago Bears
Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings
Washington Redskins	Detroit Lions
New York Giants	Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Bucs	Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers	Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons	San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints	St Louis Rams

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