Archive for the ‘New York (A)’ Category

NFL | 2006 | Playoffs | New York Jets at New England Patriots - Preview

Friday, January 5th, 2007

Stats:
• NYJ was 6-2 away this season (more below)
• NE was 5-3 at home this season, losing to the Jets at home on Nov 12th.
• Mangini: First career playoff as head coach
• Belichick: 11-2 playoff record
• Pennington: 2-2 playoff record
• Brady: 10-1 playoff record
• Pennington completed 63.4% of passes and had a 79.4 rating on the road, both down from his season averages
• Brady completed 61.4% of passes and had a 77.4 rating at home, the low passer rating is due to the 9 INTs he threw there vs only 3 on the road this season
• NYJ ranked 4th best in 3rd down efficiency on offense, 10th best on defense
• NE ranked 7th best in 3rd down efficiency on offense, 8th best on defense
Summary
As is normal in the NFL playoffs, this game will certainly be won in the trenchs. Both teams have smart quarterbacks and average weapons, but the plays will be made along each sides’ front seven.

The Jets’ offensive line has all the talent to be one of the league’s best. Rookies D’Brickeshaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold have been as good as advertised in their first year - and each will have to best at their best against Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork.

A review of the Football Outsiders’ OLine and DLine stats should some interesting numbers.

The Jets’ revolving door at running back has resulted in some inconsistent numbers, but the line is doing their job it seems as they rank 2nd best in the league in percentage of plays stuffed at the line (19%). Their run tendencies show they run heavily over their guards and up the middle and few wide end runs. Cedric Houston is a solid between the tackles runner and Leon Washington has surprising power for a back of his size, speed, and quickness.

New England’s defense ranked 7th in the league in average yards allowed per rush (3.9 yards). Their strengths were over right tackle (2.84 yards) and around left end (3.30 yards). Up the middle, teams averaged 4.15 yards per rush against NE. That ranked 12th best in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets’ run defense has been a real problem spot this season. They give up an average of 4.65 yards per carry but have given up a surprisingly low number of 10+ yard runs (tanked 8th in the NFL). Their stuff ranked is 28th, which combined with the 10+ number proves that the problem with the run defense is the line play and not the linebackers.

The Jets gave up 5.12 yards per carry around left end, 5.30 ypc off left tackle, 5.67 ypc off right tackle and 4.54 ypc around right end. That’ll be a problem for them because the Patriots run a lot of plays wide and off tackle. In fact, the stats show they run about half of their plays off tackle or wider. The strength of their run game goes to the left side, which is where the Jets have given up the most yardage so expect to see plenty of Dillon and Maroney plowing through blocks from Matt Light and Logan Mankins.

One final PFW note from this week about the Jets’ excellence when playing on the road this season:

We hear that a lot of the credit for the Jets’ 6-2 road record this season — the second-best mark in franchise history behind the 7-1 away record the team posted in 2001 — goes to the way head coach Eric Mangini has treated games away from home. Word is Mangini has done an excellent job preparing the players during the week leading up to an away game by simulating conditions they may face, including practicing in the elements or running plays with simulated crowd noise blaring from speakers along the sideline. We also hear Mangini does a great job of preserving the team’s pregame routines, taking the same approach to preparing for road games as he does at home. The players have adapted well and have been relatively composed and disciplined on the road this season, save for the 41-0 blowout loss at Jacksonville in Week Five. Most impressive of all, Mangini’s troops won all three road games against AFC East foes, which should serve the team well in the postseason.

2006 | Week 2 - New York Jets

Friday, September 22nd, 2006

17-24 vs NE

Targets stats only this week.

CATCHES / TARGETS:
Coles - 6/13
Cotchery - 6/7
Blaylock - 3/6
McCareins - 4/4
Ryan - 1/2
Barlow - 1/1
Baker - 1/1
Askew - 0/1

2006 | Week 1 - New York Jets

Saturday, September 16th, 2006

21-16 at TEN

Beating the Titans means so very little. I don’t know how they let Tennessee back into this game. Week two we’ll find out about this team.

Targets/Catches:
Cotchery - 6/12
Coles - 8/10
Baker - 4/4
McCareins - 2/3
Smith - 1/1
Bloaylock - 2/3
Ryan - 1/1
Barlow - 0/1

Week 10 - New York Jets

Wednesday, November 16th, 2005

3-30 at Carolina

The Jets could have taught a class on how to not start a game with a young QB. A dropped pass on third down killed their first drive. A holding penalty to start their second drive put them on a three and out path until the Panthers were called for roughing the passer on third down.

Curtis Martin didn’t look like he was hampered too much by that knee injury. Cedric Houston ran well too, but most of Houston’s carries came late in the fourth quarter.

The Jets have to do more than just run the ball three times in a row when they get it inside to 10 yard line. Yes, Brooks Bollinger is your quarterback, yes you had just 15 yards passing in the first half, but you’re not going to win the game with field goals.

On 2nd and 6 from the 24 and Bollinger had Coles open down the sideline and he had time to step into the pocket and deliver a good pass. But instead Brooks threw the ball off his back foot and it came down short and into Ken Lucas’ arms. That was with 7 minutes remaining in the third quarter. The game was just 10-3 when it happened.

And despite what was said, I didn’t see the Jets quit on defense and it’s just that their offense has been bad since, well, 1998.

Three of Bollinger’s four picks could be attributed in part to his poor arm strength. The fourth INT was a pass that McCareins dropped and Chris Gamble picked off.

TARGETS(catches):
Coles- 5(3)
McCareins- 5(2)
Jolley- 4(2)
Sowell- 4(2)
Cotchery- 2(1)
Martin- 1(1)

Saturday Football

Saturday, October 22nd, 2005

Filling out the rest of week six, below. I’m borrowing today’s NCAA picks from a fellow named Keg. He’s doing much better than my 23-30 this season. And if he finishes 0-4 today, I’ll kindly apologize for passing on my curse to him and I’ll pledge never do it again.



New York Jets TARGETS(catches): McCareins- 11(5) Coles- 7(4) Martin- 2(2) Chrebet- 1(1) Baker- 1(0) Dreesen- 1(0) Buffalo Bills: TARGETS(catches): Moulds- 9(7) Evans- 6(3) McGahee- 4(3) Campbell- 3(2) Reed- 1(1) Smith- 1(1) Peters- 1(1)

St Louis Rams: TARGETS(catches): Holt- 8(6) Jackson- 6(5) Curtis- 5(3) Faulk- 4(4) Looker- 2(2) Manumaluena- 2(1) Cleeland- (2) Indianapolis Colts: TARGETS(catches): Wayne- 10(7) Harrison- 7(4) Stokely- 5(4) Clark- 4(3) James- 4(3) Rhodes- 2(1)

New England Patriots: TARGETS(catches): Givens- 13(7) Branch- 12(7) Pass- 7(6) Dwight- 5(1) Watson- 4(1) Johnson- 1(0) Zereoue- 1(1) Graham- ??? Denver Broncos: TARGETS(catches): Smith- 7(6) Lelie- 4(3) Putzier- 4(3) Bell- 4(3) Johnson- 2(1) Adams- 1(0) Alexander- 1(1)

Thursday Football

Thursday, September 29th, 2005

NO- This game was a battle of quarterbacks who don’t know how to throw the ball on time. Devery Henderson took advantage of the Vikings’ lack of depth at corner for 6 catches on 7 targets and 137 yards. Joe Horn had a hard time against Antoine Winfield. Horn had just 1 catch on 6 targets. Donte Stallworth was covered up pretty well too. He didn’t catch any one of the four passes thrown his way. Stallworth did have a punt return TD called back on an illegal block. Ernie Conwell is still the most consistent receiver on this team. Aaron Brooks clearly trusts his tight end. Conwell picked up 8 more targets, but he dropped a few and ended up with just 3 catches. Also, Duece McCallister doesn’t look as quick as I remember him being.

MIN- Don’t be fooled. The Vikings are not back yet. Daunte Culpepper is having problems in the pocket. He’s playing like a first year QB, at times running with the ball way too much and at other times holding on to it too long. And I don’t think it’s so much that he can’t read the defense during the play, but maybe he just doesn’t have confidence in either the offense’s design or his receivers or both. Bottom line, he’s not confortable. The Vikings need to give him more check down options. A couple times they used Mewelde Moore as a swing out option, like how Norv Turner does in Oakland, and they need to do more of that. Mewelde isn’t the best blocker anyhow, so they’re better off getting him to chip on someone before flaring out as a safety valve. With the way the Saints were turning the ball over in their own territory, if Minnesota’s offense was truly fixed, the Vikings would have made this game 28-0 after the first quarter.

What big plays Minnesota did have were just as much at the fault of the Saints as they were to the credit of the Vikings. Minnesota’s first and third touchdowns were simply a case of the receiver beating a corner in man coverage without much help from a safety. Dwight Smith, in particular, had a terrible day against the Vikings.

Still, there are some areas where a little optimism isn’t misguided. Moore looked like he can make a difference out there as this team’s featured back, as long as he can stay healthy. The OLine did a good job blocking for him and despite the seven sacks the stat book shows, they weren’t awful in pass protection. A lot of those should be put on Culpepper.

Also, the Vikings’ defense did a good job forcing the Saints into third and longs, and then brought a myriad of blitzes on third down.

With Atlanta coming up for the Vikes, I’m not too confident that this team has turned the corner on their problems. They easily left around 20 points on the field in week three. They also threw for just 30 yards in the second half, and this wasn’t a blow out either. At one point, the Saints were down by just 8.

As for the targets, Jermaine Wiggins led the team with 7, with Travis Taylor right behind him with 6. Troy Williamson did some good with the four passes thrown his way, but Marcus Robinson was a non-factor, except for one long play down the sideline that Dwight Smith left him wide open for. This team has too many perimeter receivers and will miss Nate Burleson dearly for as long as he’s out. And the bottom line is that Culpepper doesn’t have too much confidence in anyone right now. He’ll throw to them if they’re running free, as they were against the Saints. But against the Falcons, I think they’re going to continue to struggle.

—
ARZ- Anquan Boldin led the team with 12 targets, and he has 30 on the year. Larry Fitzgerald had only 6 passes thrown his way, as he’s clearly the guy opposing defenses want to stop first. Adam Bergen is the starting TE for this team right now, but his chances have been limited. Marcell Ship had another good game running the ball, but his playing time was again limited. This game was 10-9 Seahawks at the half and then 24-9 Seahawks 5 minutes into the third and 31-12 Seahawks after three quarters. The Cardinals defense is very vulnerable up the middle and the only thing they do well (rush the passer) can be partially negated when they play a team like Seattle who uses mostly three and five step drops. Kurt Warner’s groin injury is a serious one, so look for Josh McCown to start more than just this week. I think the Cards are better off with him in there anyway. Arizona has been terrible inside their opponents thirty yard line this year.

SEA- As I mentioned above, Seattle’s strengths on offense really played well into Arizona’s problems on defense. Bobby Engram again had a fine game, catching 5 balls on 8 targets. Darrell Jackson was the team leader with 13, as Arizona played their DBs 10 yards off the line for much of the game. Jerramy Stevens getting chances as the lone TE threat. He picked up 3 catches on 4 targets (including one in the red zone to set up a Alexander TD). Seneca Wallace and Peter Warrick hooked up on a nice 42 yard pass play. It was the first ball thrown to Warrick all season. PDub did a nice job returning punts as well.

—
KC- Tony Gonzalez had a tough time against the Broncos’ linebackers. He did get a season high 9 targets, but caught just 5 of them for a lowly 29 yards. As I expected, he is way behind last year’s pace. Eddie Kennison is still the receiver leader. He picked up 8 catches on 11 targets. The Chiefs tried to get the ball to Sammy Parker too. He got 9 passes, but caught just two of them. KC gets the Eagles at home this week.

DEN- With 17-0 first quarter lead, the Broncos ran the ball for much of the game. They are still a two WR team though, and Rod Smith led the team with 8 targets. After a couple of poor outings, the tight end has temporarily disappeared from this offense. Jeb Putzier did not get one pass his way and Stephen Alexander got only one. The Broncos’ schedule doesn’t get any easier on their short week. They travel to Jacksonville and I hope they saved some real good plays for the Jags. Actually, I’ll be picking against them. So I hope the didn’t.

—
NYG- Depsite missing the first quarter, Plaxico Burress led the team in targets for the third straight week. He had 5 catches on 11 passes. David Tyree was active as well, with 5 catches on 6 targets. Amani Toomer had his biggest game of the year, with 8 targets, but clearly he’s Eli Manning’s third favorite receiver on this team. Jeremy Shockey went 6 for 9, but he didn’t get any red zone chances. Those went to back up Visanthe Shiancoe (two).

SD- The Chargers got back to doing what worked for them last year. Antonio Gates caught six more passes on six targets. And LT picked up 7 targets to go with his 21 carries and 1 pass attempt. Keenan McCardell saw his targets fall to just 4, but he made the most of them, catching each for a total of 80 yards and two scores.

Wednesday Football

Wednesday, September 28th, 2005

It works better for me to do the Targets by game, as I’m now able to watch every play via Directv’s Short Cuts.

CAR- I talked last week about how Steve Smith wasn’t the only receiver getting chances. Well, in week three, he was. Smith took in 15 targets and caught 11 of them for 170 yards and three scores. Two of those touchdowns came inside the five yard line, and the other came on a skinny post, with Smith showing that he’s a top talent. Incidently, as if we needed more proof that Jake Delhomme has complete confidence in his top receiver, Smith’s first touchdown came on an out route that wasn’t particularly open. Kerry Colbert once again took the goose egg on catches, and the four balls he did have thrown his way were close to meaningless. And even though he played out of the slot for most of the game, Ricky Proehl looked like he was getting more looks than any receiver not named Smith. I only saw Rod Gardener on the field once, although I wasn’t really ever looking for him. Inside the red zone, this is still Stephen Davis’ team. He got three more RZ chances, giving him 10 on the year.

MIA- Even though Chris Chambers is currently on pace for just 821 yards after three games, I really think he’s going to have a fine season. He’s been the target leader among the Miami WRs in every game so far and has 32 total targets on the year. With only 14 catches, the chances are there for him to improve his production. Chambers’ 42 yard, one-handed touchdown catch made all the highlight reels. Marty Booker is still the #2 WR, and he picked up 6 more targets. But I’d say that Randy McMichael is the guy that Gus Ferrotte looks to after Chambers. McMichael only had one catch on 5 targets, but it was good for a score.

—
CIN- Chris Henry is proving that he was more than worth the third round pick Cincinnati used on him. For the second week in a row, Henry caught 4 passes on 4 targets but this time out, he added a nice 38 yard touchdown catch. Henry is still the third option on this team, but he’s clearly surpassed Kelley Washington on the depth chart and was a big reason the Bengals could let Peter Warrick go. CJ and TJ each picked up 5 targets, while Chris Perry had 4 and now has 14 on the season.

CHI- Even though the Bears got blown out, they were able to move the ball a little bit against Cincinnati. And playing from behind early, Orton was forced to throw more often than he has in either of his other two games. To the Bears credit, however, they did not give up on the ground game even when down by two scores. For the third week in a row, Muhsin Muhammed was the leading target (12). Rookie Mark Bradley had a second best 8 targets. He’s a great run after the catch guy that should get more looks as he grows accustomed to the NFL. Bobby Wade picked up 4 catches on 7 targets, playing as the team’s #2 for much of the game.

—
NYJ- They’re obviously in trouble and should be on the phone offering Tennessee anything they want for Billy Volek. Chris Baker is still looking good as the #1 TE. He went 3 for 3, including a nice little mini-screen pass that went for 30 yards. Justin McCareins pulled in only 1 of the 7 passes thrown to him. Some were drops over the middle but there were a few poorly thrown balls in there as well. He really isn’t the solid #2 receiver the Jets thought they were getting last year. Laveraneus Coles picked up just 17 yards on 4 catches and 6 targets. He was badly underthrown on a couple of occasions. Starting Brooks Bollinger isn’t really the worse thing that could happen to this team. He’s a third year guy now and Pennington was really limiting what they could execute on the field. If Bollinger can take control of the offense, he can be a decent game manager and still give this team a chance. If I were the Jets, I’d be more concerned with the way their defense has looked soft at the most inappropriate times.

JAX- The Jags are doing a lot to get the ball in Matt Jones’ hands. He led the team with 7 targets against the Jets, but Jones is still not yet a reliable receiver over the middle. Ernest Wilford is still making the most of limited opportunities. He caught two balls on 3 targets and is 4/6 on the year. Leftwich likes to go to the 6-4 receiver in tough situations. Wilford is very reliable over the middle and can be counted to to make every attempt to get the ball into his hands. Jimmy Smith was practically nonexistent for all of the game until he scored in OT to win it. Smith ended with 2 catches on 4 targets. Alvin Pearman is doing an ok job as a punt returner. He’s good at keeping his shoulders square and upfield, no matter which direction he’s going. Pearman has also looked very powerful and very elusive running the ball in limited time on offense. He’s clearly the guy the Jags will go to if Taylor misses time.

Jacksonville is going to finish around 12-4 this year. We know their defense is good, and the offense under new coordinator Carl Smith has proven it can come up with a big play when needed. But the Jags special teams are terrific. Their kickoffs go for touchbacks. Their punt are well covered, but they do need to figure out who can return kickoffs now that they’ve released Chad Owens.

—
TB- I’ll keep talking about how Carnell Williams is being overused until he’s on the IR or sees his work load descreased. It’s amazing to me that Jon Gruden would let Thomas Jones go in part because he didn’t fit into the offensive scheme, and then go and change the identity of the team after drafting Williams. Anyhow, after a quiet week 2, Joey Galloway picked up 8 more targets. He caught 5 of them 53 yards and two scores, both inside the twenty. Michael Clayton took in 7 targets, and is as steady as they come (8 last week, 7 before that). Williams took 6 rushing chances inside the red zone.

GB- I should probably include the Bucs’ DBs on this list as well. Twenty percent of Favre’s compeltions went to Tampa’s secondary. Robert Ferguson is stepping up as the team’s #2 threat. He went 4 for 8 with 68 yards and a score against the slow footed Juran Bolden. The Packers only held the ball for 3:29 in the fourth quarter, so that’s part of the reason Favre only threw 24 passes while trailing for most of the game. Donald Driver was held to just 2 catches on 4 targets.

Friday Football

Friday, September 23rd, 2005

AFC Targets, and related team news from Week Two:

BAL- In their first game with Anthony Wright at quarterback, Derrick Mason was the most active Ravens receiver. He caught 8 passes on 10 targets for 60 yards and a score. The tightends, all three of them, were again heavily featured. Heap, Wilcox, and Dinkins had 11 total passes thrown their way. With a bye this week, Baltimore’s top priority is to find their running game.

BUF- J.P. Losman was lucky he didn’t leave Tampa with two or three interceptions to his credit. Josh Reed picked up 7 targets, as did Eric Moulds. But the real story with the Bills right now is with their running back, Willis McGahee. He and Coach Mularkey have had a minor media fued this week in reference to McGahee’s running style lately. I, too, noticed in the preseason that he looked hesitant. The 1-1 Bills face another tough defense this week as they host Atlanta, and McGahee needs to show that he can dominate games because J.P. Losman can’t.

CIN- After picking up 4 more targets against the Vikings, Chris Perry now has 10 total on the season. He also had an impressive 87 yard flare pass called back on Sunday by a holding penalty. Chad Johnson was again the team leader, with 13. He’s on pace for a 184 target season (last year he had 158). Chris Henry looked good, catching 4 of the 4 passes thrown his way. And T.J. Houshmandzadeh picked up 4 red zone targets.

CLE- Trent Dilfer is doing a good job so far this season at getting the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s also spreading his targets around well. Steve Heiden led the team with 8, as the Packers have been hurt by tight ends a lot this year (Marcus Pollard in week 1). Billy Miller also got a chance in the end zone that was knocked away by a defender. As expected, Frisman Jackson only had two passes thrown his way and everyone saw what Braylon Edwards did with three of his four targets. The Browns will face a very fast Colts defense this week, and I expect their rather immobile offensive line to have all kinds of troubles.

DEN- The Broncos did all they could to lose to the Chargers, but it didn’t take. Denver turned the ball over twice inside the Chargers’ 30 and Elam missed two field goals in their first 8 possessions. But 10 fourth quarter points led them to a key divisional victory. Rod Smith (11) and Ashley Lelie (10) led the team in targets and Jeb Putzier had a surprisingly low 3. Charlie Adams seems to still be the #3 WR, as he got 4 passes thrown to him. Darius Watts had just one. The Broncos host KC on Monday night, and they should doing so with an 0-2 record. Still, they also could have beaten San Diego by three touchdowns. Denver’s defense played well.

HOU- Awful.

IND- The Colts are going to expload this week, I can just feel it. They’ve faced two of the best defenses in the league, and yes they are going against Romeo Crennel this week but his Browns just don’t have the talent to do what the Pats have done in the past. Dallas Clark played his first game of the season and he picked up 3 targets. The WR trio maitained their form; Harrison 8, Wayne 7, Stokely 5.

JAX- Reggie Williams continued his rise, with 4 catches on 5 targets. The Jags also kept Matt Jones involved with 3 targets. But Jimmy Smith is still the clear #1. He picked up 7 passes.

KC- Almost by default, Eddie Kennison is still the top WR on the Chiefs. He had a career high 1086 yards in just 14 games last year. He picked up 102 targets last year and is on pace for 104 this season. But I still like #2 guy Sammy Parker. He had 6 passes thrown to him against Oakland, catching 3 for a 28.7 ypc average. In the red zone, the Chiefs went to their running backs 10 times in week one, and 11 times last week. Tony Gonzalez has just two RZ chances on the season. He’s a little behind his three year average of 21.6 and he’s got those talented Denver linebackers to deal with this week.

MIA- Randy McMichael was busy against the Jets, pulling in 8 passes on 11 targets. On the year, he has 14 catches on 18 targets, and four looks inside the red zone. Chris Chambers is also getting a lot of passes, as he has 20 targets on the year and five inside the twenty. But Chambers only has 6 receptions so far.

NE- Daniel Graham only got one pass thrown his way in week two, but it was a 1 yard touchdown strike. Ben Watson is still the top TE target, he got 5 more passes thrown to him against Carolina. Deion Branch (14, 25 in two weeks) is the clear #1 and David Givens (9) a solid #2 guy. New England’s offense really struggled last week. They only ran one play in the red zone (Graham) and that was only after Troy Brown’s 71 yard pass play that ended on the 1. Their best starting field position was from their own 33 and they made it into Carolina territory just four times (TD, INT, FG, Fumble).

NYJ- Laveranues Coles and Justin McCareins had identical target numbers in week two (10 and 8, respectively). Not too much else going on here. The Jets are still finding their way around their new offense.

OAK- Lamont Jordan had a tough time hanging on to the ball against the Chiefs. He caught just 6 of the 11 passes thrown to him. Many of those incompletes were due to Jordan trying to run with the catch too soon. I still think he’s a above average receiver, especially considering his size. The errors he made Sunday night were not really physical; he definitely has the hands to catch 70-80 passes this year and he’s obviously going to get the chance to in this offense (see the OAK preview). After two weeks, it looks like I might be wrong about Randy Moss. He’s got 10 catches and two scores so far and that’s in line with the projections I had him at. But the 257 yards he’s racked up is way ahead of the pace I’d thought he’d go on. In fact, he’s on pace for 2056 and even though it’s only two games, I didn’t see him getting to 1600. But that looks to be where Moss is headed. He’s getting the ball thrown to him plenty (22 total targets). Jerry Porter had 11 targets in week two and with Ronald Curry out of the year, Porter should see an increase in his production. Also look for Doug Gabriel to make an impact as he returns this week from a finger injury.

PIT- All of these crazy Pittsburgh stats are either very misleading or they underscore how fantastic this team is playing. We’ll find out this week, but from my point of view, it looks like they are rolling.

SD- The Chargers got Antonio Gates involved right away, as he went 8 for 8 in passes. Keenan McCardell continued his high pace with 8 more targets, giving him 22 on the year. And not only has LT not caught a pass all season, but he’s only been thrown one ball.

TEN- Steve McNair used his back heavily against the Ravens, throwing 15 passes to the trio of Chris Brown, Travis Henry, and Troy Fleming. In turn, the tight ends saw considerably fewer balls (4, down from 13). The wide receivers were led by Drew Bennett (8) and Brandon Jones (6). The Titans are back on the road to St. Louis this week.

And from the NFC…
CAR- The Pats were focused on slowing Steve Smith. He only had 4 catches on 6 targets for 34 yards. Keary Colbert had 7 balls thrown his way but didn’t come down with one. Ricky Proehl stepped up for the Panthers, catching 3 of 3. And Rod Gardner, who reportedly has been slow to learn the offense, picked up one red zone chance. It’s Stephen Davis’ team inside the twenty, he scored 3 RZ touchdowns on 6 chances.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - New York Jets

Monday, July 11th, 2005

Mike Heimerdinger
-entering first season with NYJ

This former Titans’ OC (2000-2004) also spent five years as Denver’s WR coach under Mike Shanahan. Heimerdinger won two Super Bowls with the Broncos and he helped coach Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith into simultaneous 1000 yard per year receivers.

In 2000, Heimerdinger’s first year with the Titans, Tennessee had high hopes for their offense before they lost WR Kevin Dyson to knee injuries. The Titans responded by giving Eddie George 403 rushing attempts that year but they still finished with a 13-3 record on the season.

2001 brought back more balance to the Titans’ offense, and their passing attacked finished the season ranked 5th best in the NFL. After catching for 895 yards the year before, Derrick Mason had his first of four straight 1000 yard seasons in ‘01.

By 2002 and 2003, Drew Bennett and Justin McCareins began to emerge as WR threats. Yet, last year was the only year the Titans featured two 1000 yard receivers during Heimerdinger’s time in Tennessee. So I don’t really expect the Jets to feature more than one this year.

From 2000-2004, the Titans never finished lower than 15th overall in total points scored (with an average ranking of 11.8 out of 31/32 teams). In terms of yardage, Tennessee also held an average ranking of 11.8 in offensive yards per year (again, out of 31/32 NFL teams).

Philosophically, Heimerdinger’s west coast offense roots are still evident. As noted in Heimerdinger’s bio, “the Titans have ranked in the top five in the NFL in time of possession in each of his five seasons at the helm of the offense.” But Mike brings to the Jets more versatility than did their previous O.C., Paul Hackett.

As summarized here:

Mike Heimerdinger says he subscribes to the philosophy that a team’s best defense is sometimes its offense. His goal is not only to score, but to maintain long, back-breaking drives that keep the opposition’s defense on the field and wears it out. While big plays are nice, six- and seven-yard passes and a solid ground attack keep both the chains and the clock moving, and that’s what running an offense is all about.

“You just want to stay in a rhythm,” says Heimerdinger, the new offensive coordinator for the New York Jets. “You want to keep the defense running and keep it on the field.”

Just like the Titans’ offense was built around Steve McNair, the 2005 New York Jets will be built around Chad Pennington. The average passing yards for all Titan QBs over the 2000-2004 seasons is 3740.4. They averaged 24 touchdowns and 15.2 interceptions per season during that stretch. Last year’s numbers for Pennington, when pro-rated for a full 16 games are: 3289.8, 19.7/11.1. So if Chad is healthy enough to stick around for all 16 games, he could easily eclipse 3500 yards for the first time in his career.

Laveranues Coles looks like a lock for 1200 yards and 6-8 touchdowns (if healthy) while playing in the Derrick Mason role, but I’d have serious reservations about drafting Curtis Martin with Heimerdinger’s track record for abusing running backs.

One final note, I do expect the Jets’ defense to stumble a bit from their top 10 rankings (4th in points, 7th in yards allowed) from 2004. And in turn, I think their offense will pick up a few more points to compensate. The Jets’ offense ranked just 17th in the NFL in points scored last season, so there is adequate room to move up.

UPDATE:
I completely overlooked any discussion of the tight end spot in Heimerdinger’s history- which is a particularly bad error considering the Jets made such an effort during the offseason to secure a pass catching TE.

Before trading for Doug Jolley, New York tried to sign Jeb Putzier away from the Broncos, but Denver matched the offer. That is significant because Jolley and Putzier are very similar players. They both run and catch much more like a true wide receiver and block less like a true tight end.

Tight ends in Heimerdinger’s offense with Tennessee averaged 78 catches, 748.6 yards, and 4.8 touchdowns per season. Granted, that’s the production for all of the tight ends, combined, but the Titans haven’t really had a pass catcher at that position since Frank Wycheck’s early days in the league; and even then, Jolley is a completely different kind of athlete.

It’s hard to ignore the effort New York made to get a quick and agile tight end, especially when they could have just drafted Heath Miller with the pick they ended up giving Oakland for Jolley. But Miller is more in the Wycheck mold, and was obviously not the TE the Jets were looking for, and that has to be recognized in the world of fantasy football.