Archive for the ‘New York (N)’ Category

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - New York Giants

There are reasons to be optimistic about this team. Remeber first, that the Giants were 5-2 last season going into their bye week before they fell apart. They’ve also drafted extremely well over the last two years. In 2004, they got Eli Manning, future All-Pro guard Chris Snee, Reggie Torbor (who is anchoring the middle of the defense this year), and starting free safety Gibril Wilson.

Then this past April in the ‘05 draft, the Giants appeared to have made the most out of just the four picks they had. Second round pick Corey Webster, a cornerback, has been all over the field this preseason causing turnovers and making plays. Justin Tuck, a third round defensive end, has been equally impressive. New York picked RB Brandon Jacobs in the fourth round and DE Eric Moore in the sixth. Both will make an impact this season as well.

So what does this have to do with fantasy football or offensive coordinators? Well, not much really, other than it should serve as notice that the New York Giants are very close to becoming a very good team.

OC John Hufnagel has been coaching for over 30 years, most recently as the QB coach of the Patriots’ 2003 team, of the Jags’ 2002 squad, and with Indianapolis in 2001. With his prescense in NY, there should be no concerns about the level of education Eli Manning is receiving.

Confident that Manning was able to escape serious injury to his throwing arm, the Giants feel positive about their QB’s chances of starting under center week 1 against Arizona. And only from there, will this team continue to improve. It appeared that when Manning struggled last year, for the most part he was making the right decisions but just not the right throws. His footwork is even better than his older brother’s and it’s obvious that the two share the same, great understanding of the game. Therefore, it’s pretty safe to assume that it’s only a matter of time before Eli moves to become one of the premiere quarterbacks in the NFL.

But what should we expect to see this season from Manning? Well, in Peyton’s rookie season, he played in every game, completing 56.7 percent of his passes for 3739 yards, 26 TDs and 28 INTs. In the seven games that Eli started (weeks 11-17) in 2004, he went 92/188 (48.9%) for 977 yards, 6 TDs, and 9 INTs. Average those numbers out over 16 games and you get 2233 yards, 14 TDs, and 21 INTs, so his production curve is behind Petyton’s.

In Peyton’s second season, he saw a 9.5% increase in completion percentage (5.4 points, from 56.7 to 62.1), a 10.5% increase in passing yards, the same number of touchdowns, but a 46.6% reduction in interceptions. If Eli is to follow a similar pattern, based on his limited 2004 numbers he would finish this season with a 53.5% completion percentage, 2467 yards, 6 TDs, and 5 INTs. Obviously, those numbers are way too low to put towards a 16 games season for Eli, but I think it just shows how much trouble he had in 2004. I hope, and I expect remarkably better numbers from Eli Manning in this 2005 season.

Tiki Barber is coming off a career year in 2004 and there should be absolutely no doubt that his numbers will decrease. In a phrase, he was the Giants’ offense last year. This season, that won’t be the case. Barber is still the teams’ starting running back, but I expect his numbers to end up around 1300 rushing yards, 500 receiving, and 6 touchdowns. And if you don’t believe that, listen to Barber himself:

“Brandon Jacobs, he’s going to do great things for this offense this year,” Barber said, “and keep us on the field in short situations and give me time to rest and be healthy for every situation throughout the game. It’s the most comfortable I’ve been in a long time. This running back group this year will be about roles and functions. I think we have guys who understand that.”

In 2002 when Tom Coughlin was in Jacksonville, he had Fred Taylor healthy for 16 games and yet Stacy Mack ran the ball 98 times for 436 yards and 9 touchdowns. Jacobs could easily approach those numbers, although if Jacobs is scoring close to 10 Tds, the Giants are probably winning a wild card spot in the NFC and I don’t see either of those two things happening this year. But you never really know, do you?

At wide receiver, Plaxico Burress moves into the split end spot and Amani Toomer slides over to play flanker. Those two, together with Jeremy Shockey provide a trio of targets for Manning that are each at least 6′3 and 200 lbs. Last year, Giants wide receivers scored just two touchdowns all year (while their tight ends had eight). With Burress in the mix now, that number has to go up, but considering Burress has never finished a season with more than 7 touchdown catches, don’t expect an overflow of passing touchdowns just yet. If anything, Toomer should benefit the most from the new set up. He’s a 1000 yard WR who has fallen off of most fantasy radars this season. I expect a bounce back season for him. One other receiver to keep an eye on is David Tyree, a 6 foot, 200 lbs third year guy from Syracuse. Tyree has looked solid this preseason and he makes plays on special teams. He probably won’t do anything fantasy-wise this year, but he’s got some talent.

Finally, there’s Shockey, who according to reports, is playing like his old self again. Based on that and his current career path, it looks like a 70 catch, 700 yard season is in store for the former Hurricane. Shockey set a career high in touchdowns last season with six. He was the sixth most targeted tight end last year, and in the red zone he had 22 passes thrown to him- third best among TEs. With a young quarterback still behind center this season, I expect Shockey to again be an asset that Manning will look to rely upon frequently.