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Saints opener, and Duece McAllister’s health

Friday, September 7th, 2007

Well done New Orleans.

If you started the game with a script, I recommend scripting the entire game next time.

For the first quarter, you moved the ball on offense, showing patience and creativity. You played cover 2 on defense, something most didn’t think you were going to do but said you needed to do with Jason David at right corner back.

It was basically a show of two defenses not letting the other team’s offense get anything easy down the field. Two deep safeties, keep everything underneath. And we’ve learned that if you don’t play Patriot-style games on defense - disguising and rolling strange coverages - the only other way to slow down Manning’s offense is to play that deep cover 2 the Saints opened the game with.

But, for some reason they stopped. Or just started mixing in the kinds of 3 deep and quarters coverages that will get you beat.

As for Duece McAllister, well, he’s healthy. And that’s not really a good thing. He’s dancing around tacklers again, instead of running through them like he did last year when he wasn’t 100%. And he keeps trying to run like Reggie Bush it’s not going to work for him, this healthy thing. Even Reggie Bush can’t make everyone on the field miss like he thinks he can. Run forward boys.

Saints continue to upgrade defense; sign Jones

Friday, July 6th, 2007

Dhani Jones said on the NFL Network Thursday that he intends to sign with the Saints. The deal is just now being confirmed on the New Orleans side, completing an off-season revamp of their defense that should pay big dividends this season.

The 2006 Saints defense was a unit left vulnerable to big plays. They were undersized and played a lot of loose, three deep zone in order to help out against the run with an extra defender. But they missed a lot of tackles and just didn’t have the personnel on the field to make many big plays.

According to Football Outsiders’ stats, their defense gave up the second most number of 10+ yard runs (first was Seattle) last year. They only averaged 128.9 yards against on the ground per game, but their yards per carry average (4.9) was tied for second to last with St. Louis and just 0.4 ahead of the disastrous Colts regular season run defense.

So after ending last season with Scott Shanle, Scott Fujita, and Mark Simoneau as their starting linebackers, New Orleans looks to open 2007 with Dhani Jones at SLB, Brian Simmons in the middle, and Shanle on the weakside.

Both Simmons - who the Saints signed to a three year deal this off-season - and Jones are known as excellent and instinctive run stopping linebackers. Neither are exceptionally big players, but they are sure, veteran tacklers and read the play very well. Shanle was by far the most effective of the Saints’ LBers last season.

Earlier this off-season, New Orleans also signed defensive tackle and 7 year veteran Kendrick Clancy to a three year deal. Clancy isn’t a difference maker at his position, but he will bring a high effort game and provide much needed depth to a position in NO that was just worn down last season.

The Saints still have Brian Young and Hollis Thomas at the DT spots from 2006. And with the strength of this defense at each end position (Will Smith and Charles Grant), all these tackles have to do is hold the point of attack. But when Thomas and Young needed rest last year, the defense suffered with backups in the game.

One final note on this much improved unit, the Saints also signed CB Jason David this off-season; addressing the last piece of their needs on defense. Fred Thomas was abused in the playoffs last year playing that weak deep thirds defense. David is undersized as well, and comes from a cover-2 scheme, but he’s highly athletic and is an improvement in coverage over Thomas.

The thing I like most about all these moves is that New Orleans has picked up regular priced, free agent role players to assume positions on their team that needed to be filled. In other words, they spent their money wisely on players who can step in and fill holes on their defense.

Can Reggie Bush improve as a runner?

Thursday, June 21st, 2007

Brian Baldinger, on the NFL Network, had some interesting notes to give in talking about Reggie Bush.

Below, Baldinger talks about Bush’s lack of patience inside the tackles, and gives a couple of examples of where he can become a better runner.

The Network also gave a couple of interesting stats about Bush:

Last season, Bush carried the ball 155 times. On 52 of those carries, he was stopped for negative yards.

And his stats for his first 11 games were: 30.1 ypcarry, 39.2 ypcatch, 1 td.
Stats for Bush’s final 7 games: 43.6 ypcarry, 66.4 ypcatch, 9 tds.

Click below to watch the video.

NFL | 2006 | Playoffs | Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints - Preview

Saturday, January 13th, 2007

• Reid: 8-5 playoff record
• Payton: 0-0 playoff record
• Garcia: 1-3 playoff record
• Brees: 0-1 playoff record
First Meeting
These two teams met in Week 6, back when Reggie Bush was bouncing everything wide, back when the Eagles had Donovan McNabb but no Donte Stallworth, and back when we weren’t really sure if the Saints defense was good enough to turn them into a championship caliber team.

Back in October, the Saints were still deploying their fast tempo offense, and just first showing the league what they were going to do this season with Duece McAllister runs up the middle while at the same time decoying Reggie Bush on end arounds.

Saints On Offense
The Saints have also done a fantastic job this season of protecting their quarterback; something that starts with the play designs of Sean Payton and flows to the surprising play of their offensive line to finally the decision making of quarterback Drew Brees.

Because of their great ability to protect the quarterback, the Saints receivers use a lot of double moves in their routes. That was a problem for the Eagles in October and will be a problem again on Saturday. The Eagles defense is based on timing. Many of their coverages are based on getting to the quarterback after 3 seconds. After that, they break down.

Looking back to the Giants - Eagles game last week, the Saints should feel pretty good about their ability to move the ball against this Eagles defense. A look at the Giants drive log shows that on 5 of the 6 drives they were able to get 1 first down, they ended up getting points. The Saints are a much more efficient offense than the Giants, and they should be able to continue drives all day long against the Eagles.

Take as proof, this video from the NFL Network this week breaking down the chances the Giants missed to get the ball to Plaxico Burress.

Burress had 5 catches for 89 yards but could have probably had double that against the Eagles. A receiver like Marques Colston, who isn’t entirely the player Burress is, still has the same size and quickness to give the smallish Eagles corners trouble; especially without Lito Sheppard.

The Eagles run defense was leaky when the Giants spread them out. New Orleans will again have success doing the same with McAllister running up the middle and Bush running everywhere. The Eagles are vulnerable to cut back lanes when offenses put three receivers on the field.

Eagles On Offense
These two teams are similar in terms of that they both want to control the game with their offense. Philly struggled early last week and Garcia admitted he was jittery in that first quarter. The Giants defense was effective early but lost their will (or stamina) by the second half. The Eagles’ game clinching drive at the end was just Westbrook and the Philly line rolling over the New York front seven. The Saints also boast two top tier defensive ends who can rush the edges well. Will Smith in particular is having a great season.

The Saints defense features a solid front 4, smart, undersized linebackers who play well in coverage and just well enough against the run, and somewhat physical corners who can cover 1 on 1. They won’t win games on their own, but they have the personnel to keep their offense in just about any game.

The Eagles will make plays, and this could turn into a shootout, but remember that it was McNabb who brought them back in their first meeting, not Garcia. The Saints will come out trying to stop the run early. The Eagles WRs have done a great job in run blocking (as has their OLine), but the Saints DBs will put up more fight than the Giants’ DBs did last week.

Summary
For New Orleans offense, the key factor for them against PHI is whether or not they can stay out of third and longs. The Saints were the third best team at converting 3rd downs this season, and they’ll be able to continue that success if they can keep the down and distances short. If they’re forced into 3rd and 9s, the Eagles blitz scheme will have more time to get to Brees and force bad decisions. Brees is one of the best QBs in the game at taking care of the football, so chances are he’s not going to make mistakes unless he’s forced into them.

NFL | 2006 | Week 16 - New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants Preview

Friday, December 22nd, 2006

Last Week
The Eagles used plenty of dual running back formations in week 15 and even ran the same kinds of the plays the Saints will run this week by faking a run to one RB and giving it to another (or giving it to the first RB option and using the second as a decoy).

A good example of the latter is when the Saints will line up McAllister at RB and Bush out wide. The play will be designed to run Duece up the middle on a slant while Bush is coming back behind the play to possibly take a reverse. This holds that defensive backside where Bush is running to and creates a crease up the middle in between the guard and tackle spot. The Eagles ran this play with great effectiveness against the Giants and so will the Saints.

Even without this misdirection, Philadelphia ran up the middle very effectively against NY last week; something that Duece McAllister has done well this year. The Giants are vulnerable against the run in week 16 when they were spread out wide and the Saints excel at just that. Michael Strahan’s return (below) won’t be able to do much about the Giants softening middle.

New York also plays a lot of cover 2 and zone coverage on defense and Drew Brees has been eating that up this season.

Intangibles - Strahan
In the Giants’ favor, Michael Strahan has been trying to get back in the lineup for the last couple of weeks and it looks like he’ll get his chance this week. The Giants are 2-12 without Strahan in the lineup over the last three seasons but as the NY Times points out:

Most of that stems from 2004, when Strahan missed the final eight games with a torn pectoral muscle. His absence coincided with Coughlin’s decision to insert quarterback Eli Manning into the starting lineup as a rookie, and the Giants lost seven of their last eight games.

Nonetheless, this season, the Giants have given up 100 yards rushing in 5 of their last 6 games, and the only win they’ve had over those last 6 is the one game they held Carolina to 45 yards on the ground.

Strahan’s return will certainly improve the run defense, but I don’t know if he’ll be enough to keep the Saints passing offense from scoring 24+ points.

It’s also probably Tiki Barber’s last regular season home game, whatever extra that may bring to the Meadowlands.

Season Efficiency Ratings
In terms of overall efficiency, the Saints are rated as one of the top two or three offenses in the NFL in many categories: Total Yards, Passing Yards, Average Yards per Pass, Sacks Allowed, First Downs, Average Yards per Play, and Third Down %.

The Giants are statistically the 3rd worst defense in the league on third downs, they rank 28th in passing yards allowed per game, and are 25th in QB sacks. All of that is a clear mismatch when the Saints are throwing. Quite simply, this is one of the best passing offenses in the NFL against one of the worst pass defenses.

Inside the red zone, the Giants have by far the league’s worst ratio of TDs given up when defending inside their twenty. The Saints are right at halfway (16th) in terms of offensive red zone TD efficiency.

Final Notes
The Saints are one of the best offenses in the league at picking up the blitz and they also do very well against 4 man rushes. The Giants haven’t shown enough pass rush this season - with or without Strahan - to disrupt Brees.

New Orleans’ defense boasts smaller, athletic linebackers and their DEs are two of the leagues’ best. This defense is fast but is giving up 5.1 yards per carry against the run. In order to win, the Giants will have to show more patience on offense than they have all season. They’ll need to run Barber and Jacobs 30-40 times in this game, just like the Redskins tried to do last week.

If they are effective, the Giants would be able to shorten the length of the game and keep Brees off the field.

The Saints have clinched their division but they are tied at 9-5 with Dallas for the #2 NFC spot and a first round bye. And judging by the way Sean Payton put the dagger into Bill Parcells a few Sundays ago, I don’t think this is a team that is about to let up.

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - New Orleans Saints

Thursday, November 16th, 2006

31-38 at PIT

Don’t slight New Orleans because they lost this game. The Saints offense traded blow for blow with what is still a good Steelers’ defense. They were driving to tie the game until Terrance Copper fumbled on the 26 yard line with 39 seconds yet.

They turned the ball over too much on offense and can’t stop the run very well, but this team has first round playoff loss written all over them. And getting there will be an accomplishment for them in Payton’s first season.

Drew Brees said in his post-game conference that the 2nd McAlister TD was not a designed play. The center just had the ball stick into the ground and it bounced to Duece. Brees was looking at the ground trying to find the ball and said he didn’t know what had happened until he looked up at the scoreboard and saw Duece in the end zone with it.

I can’t believe Jason Craft caught Willie Parker from behind. He didn’t really have an angle on Parker. He didn’t really have a head start. He just caught him. How fast is Jason Craft? I mean, he’s 30 years old!

Here’s another question: Has Charles Grant made a Pro Bowl yet? I’ve seen him make some very good plays this year and he was strong in this game as well. Turns out it’s a contract year for him as well. New Orleans was upset with Grant last year but he seems to be producing this season.

2006 | Week 2 - New Orleans Saints

Thursday, September 21st, 2006

34-27 at GB

Targets stats only this week.

CATCHES / TARGETS:
Colston - 4/10
Bush - 8/9
Horn - 5/6
Henderson - 3/5
Stecker - 3/3
McAllister - 1/2
McIntyre - 1/2
Campbell - 1/1

2006 | Week 1 - New Orleans Saints

Saturday, September 16th, 2006

19-14 at CLE

A nice start to the Bush/Brees administration in New Orleans, Sean Payton did exactly what they said they would do with #25. Bush continues to look strong enough of a threat to run inside that defenses must stay honest when he’s in the backfield. And Bush’s play on the outside is obviously a top threat. Bush made a couple of nice looking catches on short passes along the sidelines.

That said, look at the lack of distribution to everyone else on the team not named McAlister or Bush. I think the Saints will being to follow a little more traditional game plan in the coming week. Look for Joe Horn especially to be featured against the Packers’ troubled secondary in week two.

This team is suddenly a lot of fun to watch, and what they were able to do in week one, on the road, against an underrated Browns defense should be respected.

Targets/Catches:
Bush - 8/10
Colston - 4/8
Horn - 2/7
Henderson - 3/4
McAllister - 0/1

Video - Reggie Bush vs Titans - 08.12.06

Sunday, August 13th, 2006

In case anyone hasn’t seen this, one of Reggie Bush’s first professional runs was a remarkable one.

http://video.beachthe.net/Reggie_Bush1.html

Watch the end zone cam shot that follows and count how many defensive backs Bush beats around the corner.

As you see in the link, I’ve numbered this clip ‘1′.

New Orleans Saints - Week 13

Wednesday, December 7th, 2005

3-10 vs Tampa Bay

Just a quick note here about TE Zach Hilton, who seems to be emerging as a sleeper down the stretch. The third year player from North Carolina has picked up 20 targets, 13 catches, and 155 yards over the last three games. He has a huge body, 6-8 268, and is athletic enough to get open from the TE position. But he didn’t run a good route on the play that resulted in Ronde Barber’s second INT. He didn’t have the awareness to pick up an extra yard for the first down on a key third and five inside 2 minutes of the first half (the Saints actually picked up the first down on a Bucs penalty). He’s not a guy who’s able yet to make the most of the chances he’s given.

The Saints have used the tight end well all season, and with Conwell on IR now, Hilton is the number one guy. Overall, he’s a raw talent that I personally wouldn’t count on in my fantasy team’s playoff weeks. But he’s someone to keep an eye on.

TARGETS(catches):
Horn- 10(2)
Hilton- 7(4)
Stallworth- 6(3)
Stecker- 4(4)
Henderson- 3(3)
Smith- 1(1)
Hall- 1(1)

Wednesday Football (II)

Wednesday, November 9th, 2005

As promised, two more games:
Oakland - Kansas City | Chicago - New Orleans

Oakland Raiders:
This game featured nothing of importance for the first three quarters. The Raiders had 101 yards of offense and they had just given up the first touchdown of the game, making the score 9-13. Then all of the sudden, they put together two drives in the fourth quarter for a combined 155 yards and more importantly, 14 points. Another 40 pass attempt game for Kerry Collins, but just 162 yards threw the air.

Looking at the midseason stats, I don’t see anything that the Raiders are doing well. They are 13th in total yards, 15th in first downs, 13th in third down efficiency, 23rd in opponents yards per game, 24th in opponents points per game, and 17th in point differential. With a 3-5 record, and with the AFC West playing the NFC East this season, there really isn’t much hope for this team. A 7-9 finish should be expected.
TARGETS(catches):
Porter- 9(7)
Moss- 8((1)
Jordan- 8(5)
Gabriel- 5(3)
Anderson- 5(2)
Williams- 2(2)
Foschi- 2(1)

Kansas City Chiefs:
As mentioned on the OAK side, the score of this game was just 9-6 until late in the third quarter. Both teams were basically sleeping their way through, and that’s surprising considering how important this one was to each team.

I thought going into this game that it would be a good opportunity to get a sneak preview of what Larry Johnson will be like as a team’s featured back. I did not expect that day to come so soon. Johnson came into the league as a strong between the tackles runner, but he has improved under Holmes’ guidance around the perimeter and behind pulling linemen. Still, he’s no Priest Holmes and this team will probably look to run more straight ahead plays.

Despite being one of the top 10 offenses in the league, Kansas City ranks just 23rd in the league on third downs. And inside the red zone, once the foundation of this team, the Chiefs are just at 50% in touchdown effeciency (15 for 30). That’s good for 21st in the NFL.

And even if they didn’t score on that last play of the game. For a team like this, I love the attitude that says, ‘if we can’t gain one yard doing what we do best, then we don’t deserve to win this game anyway.’
TARGETS(catches):
Kennison- 8(5) Gonzalez- 7(5) Horn- 6(4) Johnson- 6(3) Hall- 5(3) Richardson- 2(2)



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Chicago Bears:
Kyle Orton started the game poorly. Mushim Muhammad wasn’t able to do much to help him out either. But since this wasn’t really a road game, the young quarterback got a chance to settle in and still be in a position to win the game late. And that’s what he and Mushin did on a key third down late in the fourth quarter. Against almost any other team, in any other city, the Bears lose this game. Their offense was terrible, but as it turned out it wasn’t as bad as the Saints’. And that throw Kyle Orton made at the end of the game was the only pass he was asked to make on their 4 minute, 10 play, game winning drive.

Two straight road victories is just huge for this team. They’ve got two games with Green Bay still, and next week’s game versus San Francisco.

The Bears’ midseason stats are as expected. They are in the top 10 for every major defensive category and they are in the bottom 10 for every major offensive category except rushing yards per game (6th) and average gain per rush (7th). As well as things are going right now, this 5-3 team will have to be very fortunate to finish better than 9-7. But that’ll be good enough to secure a first round playoff loss.
TARGETS(catches):
Muhammad- 9(3)
Gage- 8(4)
Wade- 2(1)
Clark- 2(1)
Jones- 1(1)
Peterson- 1(1)
Edwards- 1(1)


New Orleans Saints:
Antowain Smith had a very strong game running up the middle on the Bears defense- which is where you have to attack them because they are probably the fastest defense in the NFL. But Aaron Brooks was horrible. He had put together a couple of good games earlier in the season, but that hasn’t been the case lately. How does this team think it can go anywhere with him at quarterback?

And where was Joe Horn? Only 4 targets, he played for most of the game, but just didn’t get many looks. That’s very unusual for Aaron Brooks.

The Saints are last in the league in turnover edge, and they have one of the worst defenses against the run. Opponents are getting much through the air against New Orleans, but their statistical success in that category is more due to teams not needing to pass versus not able to pass. On offense, the Saints are 9th in the league on 3rd downs, and they’re 8th in average rush, so there is something there. But no one’s doing anything about it.

And that poor crowd in Baton Rouge. It looked like there was maybe 25,000 in attendance. It sounded like less. San Antonio Saints?
TARGETS(catches):
Stallworth- 4(3)
Horn- 4(2)
Hitlon- 3(2)
Stecker- 3(2)
Hakim- 2(1)
Poole- 2(1)
Hall- 2(1)
Smith- 2(2)
Karney- 2(2)

Friday Football

Friday, November 4th, 2005

Reminder that the Week 9 picks are up. It looks like people are still in the habit of taking the opponents of SF and HOU as their best bets. Not here will you find such cowardly acts. I’m taking the Colts!

Also, a friend of the Beach, Mr. Keg, is 39-12 now in college football picks on the season.
This week he’s on:
NCST (+14) FSU
UW (+3.5) OSU
MINNY (-13) Indiana

Below are two more game reviews from Week 8.

Philadelphia Eagles:
This was basically a game you could have played online with Madden. When you know the guy you’re playing is going to pass every down, you can bring those eight and nine man blitzes all the time. Sure you’ll give up a few big plays, as the Eagles hit in this game, but there’s no way they can maintain any rhythm or pace against that kind of pressure.
TARGETS(catches):
Owens- 14(3)
Westbrook- 5(4)
Smith- 5(1)
Lewis- 4(1)
Brown- 4(2)
Gordon- 1(1)

Denver Broncos:
I picked Denver to win as my best bet last week because of three things: 1) Broncos back home coming off a tough road loss against a very good Giants team, 2) The success the Eagles have had versus the run this year has been largely do to the styles of offenses they have faced (and they struggled against the zone blocking scheme of Atlanta in week one), and 3) Philly’s one dimensional offense versus a very aggressive and very fast Broncos defense (Gold, Mobley, Wilson, Bailey and those young talented DBs Foxworth and Williams).

So what Denver’s defense did in this game is stack the line of scrimmage not with run stuffers, but with corners and safeties with the intent to rush the quarterback. And more often than not, they got to McNabb. With no threat of the run, or a big tackle-breaking running back, that will continue to be the weakness of this Eagles’ offense. The thing is, Philly’s style of offense will work against some teams, but against others, like Denver, it is doomed to fail. They’re separating coaching from playing that much.

The Broncos outgained the Eagles 200-4 in the first quarter. They had 12 first downs, compared to none by Philly. And the time of possession was 12:22 to 2:38 to start the game.
TARGETS(catches):
Lelie- 6(3)
Devoe- 6(5)
Smith- 5(5)
Adams- 5(3)
Putzier- 5(2)
Johnson- 5(1)
Alexander- 2(2)
Anderson- 1(1)



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Miami Dolphins:
Despite the win, Gus Ferotte’s accuracy hasn’t gotten any better. The score was 11-6 at the end of the third quarter, and the Saints left at least 14 points on the field prior to that.

The Dolphins are indeed designing ways to get the ball into Wes Welker’s hands. His role continues to increase, and deservingly so.

Ricky Williams showed a good burst and a willingness to deliver a hit in his 17 carries against the Saints. Then again, it was against the Saints.
TARGETS(catches):
McMichael- 6(3)
Chambers- 5(4)
Welker- 5(3)
Booker- 4(3)
Brown- 3(2)
Boston- 1(1)
Diamond- 1(0)

New Orleans Saints:
Another week, another bad break for the Saints. Dwight Smith’s fumble in the first quarter was caused by the ground, but only after he had tripped over a teammate. So the play was live and Miami got the ball back.

Aaron Brooks held on to the ball too long in this game, something he hasn’t done too much of this year. That leads me to believe he had a hard time reading the mixed coverages the Dolphins threw at him. I didn’t see many plays where Brooks had anticipated his throws.

The Saints weren’t ready to face the Dolphins’ pass rush. Whenever Miami needed a play on defense, they’d just call one of those blitzes from anywhere plays and defenders would be in Brooks’ face before he hit his back step.
TARGETS(catches):
Horn- 12(7)
Stallworth- 7(3)
Henderson- 5(3)
Stecker- 4(1)
Meier- 1(0)
Smith- 1(0)

Thursday Football

Thursday, October 27th, 2005

I’ve got something to say here, so just two games for now.
Maybe more later.

New Orleans Saints:
Below, under the stats, I put an asterik next to Ernie Conwell. The stats say he didn’t have a catch, but that’s because both he and the Saints were absolutely screwed by the NFL’s so-called replay policy.

Dear Socrates:

“I think that football doesn’t need instant replay. It’s better off without it.”

“How can you say that? Think about how silly it would be that a game may be decided by a wrong call and in this age of technology and instant everything, we can’t use a tv monitor to get the play right.”

“Okay, agreed. So tell me why it is then, that every play isn’t reviewable.
Why are plays ‘blown dead’? Why do we need ‘challenges’ under your arguement? “

The above story is a dramatization of this:
-The current use of NFL replay is horrible. Refs purposely let plays go on so that they can be reviewed, but if there isn’t enough evidence to overturn, the plays stays the same, despite what that ref may have originally thought. And that only can happen if a team has and chooses to use a challenge.
The NFL has the best referees in the world.
Why don’t they use them.

Make every play a reviewable play. Let refs call the game as they see it.
Make every play a reviewable play.

Oh, and the Saints aren’t playing bad football. They were rolling over the Rams in this game for the first quarter. But they’re not playing good football either, or else they would have continued to blow out St Louis.
TARGETS(catches):
Stallworth- 11(4)
Hakim- 9(6)
Stecker- 7(3)
Henderson-6(2)
Smith- 3(2)
Conwell- 2(0)*
Hilton- 1(0)
Karney- 1(1)


St. Louis Rams:
If the Saints had any luck at all, it would still be bad luck (or however that saying goes). St Louis trailed this game 7-17 in the fourth quarter, but they could have easily been down by 20 instead of 10. To their credit, the Rams never moved from their game plan, and they steadily pulled their way back into contention. But don’t let the final score fool you, this was a game that the Rams could have very easily lost (see above rant).

St. Louis might have injuries at key positions all over the field, but their offensive line did a real good job in this game allowing Jamie Martin operate the offense.

Jeff Wilkins missed a 48 yard field goal in the first quarter. It was right down the middle, and about five yards short. He must have had the wind in his face or something.
TARGETS(catches):
McDonald- 8(2)
Faulk- 6(5)
Curtis- 5(4)
Looker- 3(3)
Jackson- 3(2)
Manumaleuna- 1(1)
Thompson- 1(1)




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Pittsburgh Steelers
What can you say. These guys tell you what they are going to do and most of the time, they do it. Run. Stop the run, pressure the quarterback. The recipe on how to beat them is there, but many can’t or don’t use it. Oh, and look at how many players caught a pass from Ben.
TARGETS(catches):
Miller- 6(4)
Ward- 4(3)
Wilson- 3(0)
Randel El- 2(0)

Cincinnati Bengals
If you’d ask Charlie Weis how to beat the Steelers defense, he’d probably say stretch the field with 4 and 5 wideouts, and throw short passes. And why did Cincinnati struggle to move the ball in this game? They ran mostly 2 and 3 wide sets and fell victim to what Pittsburgh does best. If you only give them three guys to cover, they’ll blitz you from all sides and still be able to play a safe cover 2- under man.

The best way to beat that is to declare off the line of scrimmage 4 or 5 wide and make them put a man on each of them. It’s something Indianapolis hasn’t been able to do to New England, and it’s something Cincinnati didn’t do to Pittsburgh.

The IND/NE comparisons don’t stop there for me. This Steelers/Bengals matchup is very similar in so many ways. Cincinnati reminds me a lot of the 2002 or 2003 Colts and I’m afraid they may have just as hard of a time beating the Steelers as the Colts do the Pats.

And as many expected, the Bengals defense had a hard time stopping the Steelers’ run game. They are too undisciplined, and too inexperienced to do what they need to do.

Chris Henry, you have to catch that first touchdown throw. You just have to. The Bengals scored their first and only touchdown of the game with a minute and fifty seven seconds left in the fourth quarter. I said last Thursday that the Steelers would have been my best bet for the week if I knew on Thursday (when we submit our picks) Ben Burger was playing. He did, and it really was that easy for the Steelers.
TARGETS(catches):
TJ- 11(7)
CJ- 8(4)
Perry- 5(5)
RJohnson- 4(2)
Henry- 3(0)
Washington- 2(1)
Kelly- 2(2)
JJohnson- 1(0)

Thursday Football

Thursday, October 20th, 2005

The Week 7 Mirl Picks are out. I have a feeling that Houston pick from last week is going to cost me big time.

I’d like to also call out all these people who keep picking double digit favorites as their best bets. Guys, try picking someone besides the Colts and/or whoever is playing the Texans/49ers. So far this year, I’ve gone with KC, PIT, IND, JAX (loser), GB, and CAR as my best bets. And this week I reluctantly like Atlanta at home on Monday night (I’d rather pick a team that wasn’t such a favorite, but I’m still the lone Atlanta best better- not all the picks have been posted yet though). I was tempted to go with the Steelers, but Ben Burger’s health left me with some doubt. That’s going to be one heck of a game.

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons need to be worried about their run defense. Maybe they’re missing Hartwell’s presence in the middle, but for the second week in a row they were gashed by an opponents’ ground game. Lucky for them, they get to face a banged up Jets team this week on Monday night before going into their bye week. Were it not for their fantastic special teams, the Falcons would have probably been blown out in this game.
TARGETS(catches):
Crumpler- 7(4)
DWhite- 4(0)
Jenkins- 3(2)
Dunn- 2(2)
Griffith- 2(2)
Finneran- 1(0)
RWhite- 1(1)
Blakley- 1(0)
Duckett- 1(0)

New Orleans Saints
The Saints always seem to play the Falcons tough and they also seem to playing well in their adopted home of San Antonio.

I didn’t get a chance to mention last week my thoughts about the McAllister injury. But as I wrote here in the Swamp the day after Duece’s injury, the Saints have two decent runners in Stecker and Smith, but more importantly, McAllister wasn’t really tearing things up anyhow. To me he looked a step or two slow in the Saints’ first three games, then improved a little in week four against Buffalo, only to then fell apart in Green Bay. And as this game against Atlanta showed, New Orleans probably isn’t going to miss McAllister too much this year. It’s kind of like they were already missing him.

The Saints do need to get Joe Horn back and 100%. He’s a guy they can’t afford to keep missing.
TARGETS(catches):
Hakim- 9(6)
Stallworth- 8(7)
Henderson- 8(4)
Stecker- 3(2)
Horn- 1(0)
Poole- 1(1)
Hilton- 1(1)
Karney- 1(1)



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Minnesota Vikings
How did this game get so out of hand? The Bears had 31 total yards of offense in the first quarter and the score was tied 0-0 with the Vikings driving into Chicago territory. The Vikes had already botched one field goal attempt when Edinger shanked a 52 yard try to start the second quarter. Minnesota then recovered a Bears’ fumble at mid-field, drive the ball down to the 2 yard line, and then had to kick a 23 yard field goal. After surrendering 28 unanswered points, nothing that happened during their bye week kept them from sucking.

The Vikings began three of their first eight drives at the 50 yard line and all they did with the ball was find different ways to not score. Looking back, I don’t know why I picked them to win this week against Green Bay.

Jerome Wiggins is essentially a wide receiver who was asked a long time ago to weigh 30 pounds more than he ever should.
TARGETS(catches):
Wiggins- 15(10)
Williamson- 12(4)
Moore- 9(5)
MRobinson- 6(4)
Taylor- 4(2)
KRobinson- 1(1)
Kleinsasser- 1(0)
Williams- 1(0)

Chicago Bears
The Bears didn’t do anything on offense in the first half until Bobby Wade set them up at mid-field with a 49 yard punt return. Chicago ended up leading 7-3 at the half, even though they could have easily been down 21-7. They have played so much better at home over the last few years, probably because they are eternally led by some kind of young quarterback. Orton again played well enough to keep the Bears in the game, but as I mentioned above, Minnesota had plenty of chances to take a commanding lead. This game was only 14-3 going into the fourth quarter. Yet still I picked them to win this week because they host a team that is almost a mirror image of themselves (Ravens). Key on the word ‘host.’
TARGETS(catches):
Muhammad- 12(5)
Clark- 4(4)
Bradley- 3(1)
Edwards- 2(2)
Wade- 1(1)
Reid- 1(1)
TJones- 1(1)
Peterson- 1(1)



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Carolina Panthers
Ugly, lucky, and with a bye this week.
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 9(6)
Proehl- 9(5)
Gardner- 5(4)
Colbert- 3(3)
Goings- 3(2)
Mangum- 1(0)
Seidman- 1(0)
Robertson- 1(0)

Detroit Lions
The Lions defense played aggressive and fast in this game. They deserved a better fate but when it came down to it they were responsible for keeping Carolina out of the end zone on the game’s final drive and they couldn’t come through.

The Lions have a good chance to defeat each of their next four opponents; starting this week in Cleveland. With the defense playing as well as they are, a change at quarterback may be all they need to kick start a 4-0 run. And it is indeed time for a change. Harrington just is not a play maker at the position and that Garcia is. After facing the Browns this week, the Lions are at home against the Bears, then at Minnesota, and home vs the Cardinals. They need to be 6-3 when facing Atlanta in week 11, cause they also still have the Steelers and the Bengals on their schedule.
TARGETS(catches):
KJohnson- 6(4)
Pollard- 5(3)
KJones- 3(2)
Martinez- 3(0)
MWilliams- 2(0) Vines- 2(1)
Fitzsimmons- 2(1)
Bryson- 2(2)
Pinner- 2(1)
Smith- 1(1)



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New York Giants
The Giants were a +3 in turnovers during the first half but they were held to a total of just 6 points because they could not contain a strong Dallas pass rush.

I have no doubt that the sun/shade spots on the field- caused by the late start time- causes problems for both passing games. There were numerous occasions where receivers could not track the ball in or out of the sun/shawows. Plaxico Burress in particular had noticeable trouble picking up the football.

The Giants host Denver this week, and NY has scored 42 and 44 points at home so far this year. Their struggles on offense against Dallas began and ended with their inability to give Manning time to throw. Eli did improve in the fourth quarter by looking more for the underneath passess and towards Shockey.

I wouldn’t completely blame Brandon Jacobs for his late goal line fumble. Derrick Ward served as Tiki Barber’s running back for all of the game until that play just inside two minutes. Why would the Giants’ coaches put a guy in a position like that who’s been standing on the sidelines for the last three hours. TARGETS(catches):
Burress- 11(5)
Shockey- 10(5)
Toomer- 3(2)
Carter- 3(1)
Barber- 1(1)

Dallas Cowboys:
With Julius Jones sitting out, the Giants had little reason to fear the Cowboys running game going into this match and Dallas did very little to change New York’s mind. Despite being one of the deepest teams in the NFL at the RB position, Dallas came out throwing and did little to establish a rhythm or balance on offense. If Jones misses more time, Tyson Thompson is really the teams best run option on first and second downs, with Barber coming on a third down.

This was a real sloppy game on both sides; one that featured 8 turnovers. Through the end of regulation time, Dallas held the ball for 36:59, compared to NY’s 23:01.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 14(8)
Glenn- 8(6)
Witten- 5(5)
Crayton- 4(4)
Barber- 3(2)
Campbell- 1(1)
Thomas- 1(0)



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Houston Texans:
I really did think the Texans had a chance here. They ran the ball well against the Titans last week and Seattle has a tough time getting pressure on the quarterback with just their front four. With Engram and Jackson still out, and following a big win against the Rams, I really thought this was a game that Seattle might sleep on. I guess not, and I guess the Texans are destined for one of those awful 1-15 type seasons. Good thing they get to face the Colts this week.
TARGETS(catches):
Gaffney- 13(10)
Bradford- 9(4)
Davis- 3(2)
Wells- 2(1)
Armstrong- 1(1)
Rivers- 1(1)

Seattle Seahawks:
How many touchdowns does Shaun Alexander have in prime time now? TARGETS(catches):
Jurevicius- 5(3)
Warrick- 5(3)
Strong- 4(3)
Urban- 2(2)
Stevens- 2(2)
Alexander- 2(1)



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Three more games to cover tomorrow or Saturday morning.

Friday Football

Friday, October 14th, 2005

The picks for Week 6 are up. Thanks, as always, to Eric Mirl for gathering up all 34 of us. The Beach is back in second place, after a 9-5 week 5. I’d also like to point out that I’m picking Houston to win on Sunday night in Seattle. It’s crazy, and it’s probably a loser, but it’s a statement pick. If you’re still in a survivor pool, go with someone other than Seattle this week. I just have a feeling the Texans are going to give the Seahawks a game here. I am, however, the only one on the list to take Houston and in fact I’m going against 16 best bets. Sounds like a winner to me.

Miami Dolphins
Ronnie Brown continues to improve. He’s running with a good burst and on one particular play in the second quarter he laid a great pass block on a Bills’ DT who came in free off the snap. That play allowed Ferrotte to stay in the pocket long enough to hit Chris Chambers down the sideline for a nice gain. And on the Dolphins first TD drive, Brown had a really sharp looking 28 yard run that got Miami down to the two. Who knows what the plans are with Ricky back, but Ronnie Brown is just starting to get it and it would be nice to see what he can do. Still you’ve got to do the same for Ricky. Though situation.

Gus Ferrotte had two INTs in the first half that came in Bills territory; one of which was picked in the end zone.

The Bills played okay in this one, but Miami just killed themselves for three quarters with penalties and turnovers.

On the final Miami drive, down 14-20, the Dolphins were moving the ball well. Buffalo kept blitzing and the Dolphins just took the easy throws and executed all the way down the field until Brown fumbled on the Buffalo 15. They could have easily won this game on that drive.
TARGETS(catches):
Chambers- 9(4)
Brown- 7(6)
Booker- 5(3)
Welker- 3(2)
Diamond- 2(1)
Evans- 2(2)
McMichael- 1(1)
Heller- 1(1)
Morris- 1(1)

Buffalo Bills
Kelly Holcomb must have drawn the Dolphins off-sides about four times in the game’s first twenty minutes. That’s already something you can point to and say that Losman would have not done this season.

Sam Adams received a red zone target on the first drive and it took a pass interference penalty to keep him from scoring on the play.

Lee Evans is immediately worth a pickup now that Holcomb is playing QB. Evans will end up being a top tier WR sometime over the next two/three years. He’s not as shifty as someone like Steve Smith, but Evans has that rare top end speed and understanding of the position combination.

A couple games ago, McGahee was criticized by his head coach for his passive running style. Willis is doing a better job at hitting the hole now but he’s still not making things happen on his own as much as one would like to see out of a #1 back. And Shaud Williams has been subing for McGahee on passing downs quite frequently of late.

The Dolphins were 5 for 6 in stopping the Bills from scoring from the one yard line. So the third time Buffalo got down there, they put the ball into the end zone by throwing it.
TARGETS(catches):
Moulds- 9(7)
Evans- 3(3)
Campbell- 3(3)
McGahee- 3(2)
Shelton- 3 (2)
Reed- 2(2)
Williams- 2(1)

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Carolina Panthers
Like I haven’t told you Steve Smith is good. Last year for the Panthers, Mushin Muhammad caught 93 balls for 1405 yards on 159 targets. Well, Smith is on pace right now for 105 catches, 1513 yards and 160 targets.
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 12(8)
Magnum- 3(3)
Proehl- 3(1)
Gardner- 3(3)
Colbert- 2(0)
Foster- 2(2)
Gaines- 1(1)
Hoover- 1(0)
Goings- 1(0)

Arizona Cardinals
The roles of Marcell Shipp and J.J. Arrington looked more defined in this game. Shipp was getting carries as the team’s #1 back and the Cards were using Arrington more as a Brian Westbrook-like tweener. Arrington looked healthy and very comfortable when doing the things he’s used to doing. I still think Shipp is and should be this team’s first option, but it’s good to know that Arrington is improving on his terrible start to the season. Regardless, this team still can’t run the ball.

Fitzgerald and Boldin were making plays all over the place. That’s one thing Josh McCown allows his receivers to do. McCown will makes his share of errors, but he trusts his receivers and gives them a chance to make plays. Kurt Warner just held on to the ball way too much for this team. Arizona has two of the best receivers in the league and McCown is giving them a chance to make plays. Just think about that pass he threw to Nate Poole to end the Vikings’ 2003 season. Take a look at the target stats below!

Key play of the game: 13:21 left in the second quarter, the Panthers have 3rd and 10 from their own 20. The Cards show only three down linemen, dropping 8, and they end up forcing an incompletion. But Bertrand Berry jumped off-sides giving Carolina a free play, which they convert on a much easier 3rd and 5. The very next play, Steve Smith catches a pass 1 yard behind the line of scrimmage and beats rookie corner Eric Green for a 65 yard touchdown. You just can’t give good teams cheap scores like this.
TARGETS(catches):
Boldin- 17(10)
Fitzgerald- 16(9)
Ayanbadejo- 4(4)
Shipp- 3(2)
Arrington- 2(1)
Johnson- 2(2)
Lee- 1(1)
Bergen- 1(0)

—
Denver Broncos
The Broncos never trailed in this game, and that’s the recipe for success with this team. For the rest of the year, I’ll probably be refering to my preseason write up on Denver and Jake Plummer. Basically, if you put Jake in a shootout, you’re probably going to lose. And this week’s game versus NE looks like it’s going to be a shootout.

I saw a stat this week in the print edition of Pro Football Weekly that said that the Broncos are 9-1 when Plummer throws for less than 200 yards. Weird. But I completely understand it.

Ashley Lelie finally scored on that end zone fade they’ve been working on this year.
TARGETS(catches):
Lelie- 7(1)
Smith- 6(2)
Adams- 3(2)
Johnson- 3(1)
Putzier- 2(1)
Alexander- 2(0)
Anderson- 2(2)
Bell- 1(1)

Washington Redskins
I really feel bad for Clinton Portis. I don’t know if it is as easy as the Redskins changing their blocking schemes, but on the few plays I saw Portis get a chance to run behind a line that zone blocks straight ahead, he looks like a 1600 yard runner. But when he has to wait for a guard and/or a fullback, well Washington might as well have Betts in there.

It was nice to see David Patten play his first productive game of the season.
TARGETS(catches):
Moss- 13(8)
Cooley- 12(8)
Patten- 11(7)
Thrash- 3(1)
Portis- 3(2)
Betts- 3(2)
Royal- 2(1)
Sellers- 1(1)

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Cincinnati Bengals
Perhaps Chad Johnson was crying because he missed his friend, T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 8(5)
Walter- 6(3)
Henry- 5(3)
Schobel- 4(3)
Washington- 3(2)
Perry- 2(2)
RJohnson- 2(2)
JJohnson- 2(1)
Kelly- 1(1)

Jacksonville Jaguars
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 8(3)
Williams- 5(2)
MJones- 3(0) Wrighster- 3(2) GJones- 2(0) Wilford- 1(1) Brady- 1(1) Pearman- 1(1)

—
New Orleans Saints:
TARGETS(catches):
Hakim- 11(5)
Conwell- 6((3)
Stallworth- 5(1)
Henderson- 3(0)
McAllister- 3(3)
Hilton- 3(1)
Smith- 1(1)

Green Bay Packers:
TARGETS(catches):
Driver- 7(5)
Fisher- 7(6)
Ferguson- 4(3)
Martin- 4(2)
Chatman- 2(0)
Henderson- 1(1)
Lee- 1(1)
Davenport- 1(1)
Leach- 1(1)

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