Archive for the ‘Houston’ Category

A rise in multi-back offenses allows RBs to play into their 30s

Tuesday, June 12th, 2007

Jeffri Chadiha is writing about Ahman Green in this article, but he tells a story that is becoming quite common in the NFL today.

As NFL offenses have faced the reality of cost cutting over the last 10 years, they’ve had to specialize roles further and further. A perfect example is the change the Colts had to make last off-season with their running backs. It’s not that a good RB is expendable, he’s not, it’s just that they are easier to replace. The Colts kept Reggie Wayne because their investment with him was greater than the one they had with Edgerrin James. Indianapolis correctly projected their offense would suffer more without the services of Wayne versus an offense without the services of James.

And with the high number of quality second-tier running backs floating around the league, it make sense to take advantage of this excess in supply. This shift not only helps teams keep salary costs low, but it also forces coaches to be creative in the way they use their backs - which ultimately results in fewer abuse of ball carriers.

Says Green: “Regardless of my age, if I have a good back behind me, I’m going to have a big smile on my face. Right now it’s Ron Dayne and me [in Houston] and I was happy when I heard they had re-signed him. When you have two running backs, you have a chance to be successful because they’ll make each other better and they’ll keep each other fresh. We’re not robots out there. It helps to have some help.”

There’s no way Green or Dayne could become a 25 carry back in the NFL anymore, but together, they just might make an effective duo.

NFL | 2006 | Week 16 - Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans - Review

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006

27-24 HOU vs IND


• Credit to the Houston coaches for their game plan. They followed the ‘how to beat the Colts playbook’ well; controlling the football for 36 minutes. The only thing they didn’t really do well was get physical with the Colts’ receivers at the line of scrimmage. Manning was 21-27 and the Colts scored on 4 of their 6 drives (not counting a kneel down at the first half). The two drives Indy failed to get points on were their first, when Rhodes fumbled, and on their first drive of the second half. Also of note is that Indy would have probably not have had to kick a field goal on their second to last drive had Manning not tripped when coming out from under center on a third and 1 from the Houston 15. The Colts kicked there, but were driving well enough that a touchdown seemed almost inevitable. A coach like Payton, Parcells, or Belichick probably goes for it on 4th and 1 there.
• Reggie Wayne’s unproductive day combined with Marvin Harrison’s 8 catch / 112 yard afternoon is a direct result of the strength the Texans have at one corner position in Dunta Robinson. The Colts tried a deep pass to Wayne early in the game, but Robinson was running with Wayne step for step. It’s just so much easier to work the other side of the field as Manning did in this game.
• All the concern on the Colts’ side about stopping the run has trickled into their pass rush as well. Dwight Freeney hasn’t really been a factor this season or last. And the addition of Booger McFarland has helped a little in the middle against the run but he’s certainly not making plays on his own and is a liability when rushing the passer. After watching the Texans’ line push the Colts’ front seven around the field, there’s no doubt what we saw against the Bengals last Monday night wasn’t real improvement and that this team is in big trouble.
• You have to get to Peyton Manning by rushing 4. If you blitz, he’ll beat you. If you drop 8 or 9 into coverage, he’ll use all the time in the pocket to pick you apart. And the Texans could just not generate a pass rush in this game.
• Mario Williams again showed good effort, but too often was contained by one blocker on plays.
• Dominic Rhodes lost another fumble early in the game, his third on the year. Ball security seems like it’ll always be an issue with him.

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - Houston Texans

Tuesday, November 14th, 2006

13-10 at JAX

Houston won their first game on the road since December of 2004. They did it by continuing to use a quick passing game and David Carr’s mobility to their advantage. Coach Kubiak has done a good job in getting Carr to deliver the ball on time - and when the play isn’t there Carr is learning well when it’s time to move out of the pocket and try to make something happen.

Samkon Gado got the bulk of the carries in the second half, although he wasn’t particularly effective. He wasn’t bad either, but he did fumble once. By my count, all 17 of his carries came in the second half and many were in the fourth quarter. This Houston Chronicle article notes:

Gado, who weighs 226, is heavier and stronger than Wali Lundy, who goes about 211. Gado played his best game since being acquired from Green Bay at Sherman’s suggestion. Gado came to Houston for running back Vernand Morency. He carried 17 times for 67 yards. Lundy is still the starter, though. Expect to see more and more of Gado if he continues to run the way he did Sunday.

Andre Johnson leads the NFL in targets (98), and his catch rate (67%) is high up on the list as well. He only managed 3 catches on 11 targets against the Jags in week 10.

One guy who I hadn’t had a chance to watch play yet until week 10 was Owen Daniels. If you need a tight end, I’d pick him up. Carr looks for him and Daniels is a shifty, 247 lbs rookie TE out of Wisconsin. He’s already third on the team in targets with 37 despite only being a full time player for 7 of the team’s 9 games.

2006 | Week 3 - Houston Texans

Friday, September 29th, 2006

15-31 vs WAS

Just really how bad is the defense? Could it possibly be worse than last year’s? It’s a good thing they put all that pressure on Mario Williams to save them.

The one play in this game that made me just laugh was on Portis’ first quarter shovel pass that went for 74 yards on third and 6 from their own 13 yard line.

It was hard to pick up their jersey numbers cause they were on the ground so quickly, but it looked like backup DBs Gus Scott and Jason Simmons were mostly to blame for taking horrible angles on the play.

And again, it was only Dunta Robinson who kept this pass from being an easy touchdown, as the Texans CB fought a blocker all the way down field and ended up pulling Portis down too.

If I had more time, I’d make a chart of how many plays teams call that are run away from Robinson. If you happen to watch a Texans game, take a look at how many times teams actually challenge him. They don’t have to. Robinson plays mostly on the offensive right side (strong side) and in this game in particular, most of the Redskins short passes went to the offensive left. Their runs too.

David Carr still working on getting the ball out of his hands quickly on his short drops, but he’s definitely showing signs of being able to lead this team - should they ever get a defense. A problem he will continue to face this season is that this offense is built around the ability to playaction and strike deep. I think that’s a reason why the Texans have had two good drives to start their first 3 games this season, and then little else. Teams quickly figure out that there is no threat of the Texans breaking a big run with Lundy or Dayne back there, and they don’t cheat up as much as the game moves on. Out of the three backs they have now, I have to think that Gado has got to be the best option. But either way, neither of the three will scare safeties into cheating up.

One other sign of a terrible defense… on 2nd and 6 from the 31, with nine seconds left in the half, Washington called a draw play to get into the middle of the field and pick up a few extra yards so they could kick a field goal. Instead, Portis went barely touched into the end zone.

Targets:
Free resource at Football Die Hards.
They have many helpers.

2006 | Week 2 - Houston Texans

Thursday, September 21st, 2006

42-24 at IND

Targets stats only this week.

CATCHES / TARGETS:
Cook - 5/6
Johnson - 4/6
Moulds - 4/5
Daniels - 4/5
Gado - 1/2
Putzier - 1/1
Shepherd - 1/1
Walter - 1/1
Bruener - 1/1

2006 | Week 1 - Houston Texans

Thursday, September 14th, 2006

10-24 vs PHI

For whatever reason, the Eagles didn’t blitz Houston much in this game. And David Carr seemed to settle in quickly, leading to the Texans’ early 7-0 lead. But despite the lack of blitzing, Philadelphia sacked Carr three times in the second quarter and two more times in the third.

I think David Carr is in for a good season in this offense. They’ll run the ball just enough to be effective, but they’ll behind enough in games where he should rack up 3500 yards this season.

There may not be a better cornerback in the league right now than Dunta Robinson. The Eagles threw to their left and over the middle, away from Robinson, almost all game. He’s got such great instincts and demands respect from opposing teams. The problem is, the rest of the Texans secondary is in trouble. Phillip Buchanon doesn’t even start for this team, and it was RCB Lewis Sanders and FS C.C. Brown who lost track of the football and Donte Stallworth on the Eagles first touchdown of the season.

That play came on a first down from the Texans’ own 42 yard line as the playaction fake by McNabb sold the entire right side of Houston’s defense on run while Stallworth came across the back of the field from opposite side and wide open into the Texans’ secondary.

But the play that really let the Eagles score there came on the down before, when facing a 3rd and 6, McNabb threw a pass short to Greg Lewis coming out of the slot and into the flat along the sideline. Lewis was 4 yards away from the first down marker when he caught the ball, and his back was facing upfield. But Sanders was playing so far off that Lewis had time to turn around and run straight ahead - without making any moves or beating any tackle - to make the first down easily. Then came the first down TD pass to Stallworth on the next play.

Wali Lundy played on the Texans’ first possession and did little to impress. Vernand Morency came in on the second possession and did little but run into his own blockers. Later in the second quarter, on three consecutive plays, Morency first caught a ball out of the backfield and then fell over himself two yards short of the first down. On the next play, he just barely gained the first down despite falling over himself again. And then on that first down he hit the ground even again as he tried to lay a cut block on DE Jaquai Thomas, who then simply side stepped Vernand and sacked Carr. Three plays don’t get you traded, but I was watching this game last night before I heard about the trade and made of note of that series of plays on its own.

Mario Williams played mostly on the right side against Philly. That matchup lined him up against Pro Bowl LT Tra Thomas, who contained Williams well without any help.

Targets/Catches:
Johnson - 6/7
Moulds - 6/7
Putzier - 1/5
Lundy - 2/3
Walter - 1/1
Morency - 1/1
Cook - 1/1
Daniels- 0/1

Week 18 Notes

Monday, January 9th, 2006

Playoff related notes:


• The Colts are concerned about Corey Simon’s health and weight. Don’t look for him to be 100%, at least for the Steelers game.
• Tom Brady feels his offense has a lot of room to improve, despite their blowout win over Jacksonville.
• A good note here from Len Pasquarelli:

  For a second consecutive week, Washington’s regular cycle will be disrupted, since the Redskins play a second straight Saturday contest. Plus, the Redskins will have to make a long flight to the Pacific Northwest, never an easy trip. Seattle won all eight games this season at Qwest Field and the Seahawks are now 24-10 at home since the stadium opened in 2002. The home field, from a scoring standout, has been worth about a touchdown more per game for the Seahawks. Seattle lost its only playoff game at Qwest Field, losing last year to the Rams.

• John Clayton does his research too:

  Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau did have an impact on the Colts’ offense. Even though he didn’t beat the Colts, he frustrated them at times. After giving up 10 points in the first two possessions, the Steelers’ defense settled into a nickel approach that used only two defensive linemen. This may be a small lineup, but it gives the Steelers more speed and more coverage options than they normally have in the 3-4. Several times during the game, Manning struggled to find open receivers down field. Occasionally, he came to the bench frustrated. Reggie Wayne came to the sidelines upset that he couldn’t get the ball. Even though the Colts dominated in a 19-point win, the Colts couldn’t put the ball in the end zone, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns on a number of drives. The Colts had 59 offensive plays in that game. They had 366 total yards, but only 286 yards after their 80-yard touchdown pass. The Colts have one of the most efficient offenses in years. The Colts usually get 10 possessions which Manning turns into four touchdown drives. But the Steelers played them well in the red zone. The Colts have had an extra week to look at what happened and try to find ways to beat the Steelers.

• “It had yet to be determined at this writing whether or not the Seahawks would start Kelly Herndon or Andre Dyson at left corner against the Redskins this Saturday, but we hear the team was leaning toward Herndon, who recovered enough from a late-season knee injury to see action in Week 17 but did not start.” (PFW)
• “We hear that Patriots RB Corey Dillon’s leg injuries have limited his effectiveness to such a degree that it has led New England to use its spread offense — with scatback Kevin Faulk as the lone running back — more often.” (PFW)

Non-playoff related notes:


• Gary Kubiak would be a great fit in Houston as their next head coach. I noted back in late October that what little success the Texans’ offense was having earlier in the year, it was when running plays similar to the style that Denver has used with Plummer. Dominick Davis would be a great fit in the Shanahan/Kubiak scheme that has been in place in Denver over the last few seasons. And even if the Texans end up with Reggie Bush, his versatility is a perfect fit for this modified Denver style offense. And, of course, there’s David Carr; a QB who possesses similar outside the pocket skills as Jake Plummer. One of the other things that Denver has done well is evaluate and train their offensive linemen; something that the Texans are in desperate need of. Kubiak in Houston just looks like a real good fit.
• “While there’s no doubt junior USC RB Lendale White earned himself some money with a stellar Rose Bowl performance (20 carries for 124 yards and three TDs) should he decide to declare his eligibility for the draft, we hear there are still some real concerns about his character that could have a bearing on where he’s picked” (PFW)

Week 10 - Houston Texans

Tuesday, November 15th, 2005

17-31 at Indianapolis

It’s time for Jonathan Wells to be considered as the team’s starting back, at least for the rest of the season. He gets tough yards after contact and he’s playing faster than I’ve seen him run in previous seasons. Wells is still not very quick or agile, but where Dominick Davis has been stopped for no gain in the past, Wells is getting two or three extra yards and as bad as this offense is, that is proving to be the difference in a makeable 3rd and 6 versus a 3rd and 10.

Vernand Morency looks a little too out of control of his body when he’s running. This team has four running backs, and none of them have been able to distance themselves from the pack. But, at this moment, Wells is the team’s best option.

10 of Houston’s 17 points were set up by fumbles on Indy’s punt return team. And their other 7 points came from their first possession out of halftime.

After the game, David Carr said that this was the best game plan (both offense and defense) the Texans have had in place to face the Colts. And they did move the ball a little, but if it wasn’t for the two punts the Colts gave back to Houston, this game ends closer to 41-7.

TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 8(4)
Gaffney- 6(2)
Morency- 4(3)
Wells- 3(3)
Armstrong- 2(2)
Rivers- 2(2)

Thursday Football (II)

Thursday, November 10th, 2005

Detroit - Minnesota | Houston - Jacksonville

Detroit Lions:
Minnesota has been solid against the run lately, so the 58 yards Detroit gained in this game was a combination of them losing Kevin Jones, their offensive line struggling, and Minnesota stopping them. That said, having Arizona come into Ford Field this week may be the best thing the Lions could get. Things were so bad in week nine that Joey Harrington was the team’s leading rusher.

The only thing good I can say about the Lions at the mid-way point is at least they’re not taking a lot of penalties. After their week 10 game against the Cardinals, there is a very good chance the Lions will not win another game this season.
TARGETS(catches):
Vines- 15(9)
MWilliams- 9(4)
Pollard- 7(4)
Bryson- 6(6)
Pinner- 3(2)
Schlesinger- 3(2)
Fitzsimmons- 1(0)
Jones- 1(1)


Minnesota Vikings:
It’s amazing what something as wild as running the ball, using a smart and controlled passing game, and a good run defense can do for a team. So not after losing Scott Linehan, not after losing Randy Moss, not after losing Matt Birk, but finally, after losing Daunte Culpepper, the Vikings decided it was time they needed to change the way they call plays. What took you so long?

Brad Johnson makes this a better team simply because he gives them a different identity; one I’ve been saying they’ve needed since the season opening loss to Tampa Bay. Johnson uses his short and intermediate routes better than Culpepper and the former Super Bowl champ gets the ball out of his hands quickly. And the Vikings are 1-0 with him as a starter.

Holy cow Michael Bennett was fired up to play this game. I haven’t seen him run like that in years. I won’t get too excited, however, because Bennett is still a guy who’s going to lose two yards on every third carry.

Nate Burleson looks healthy again and he made a nice effort on his touchdown catch.

As for the mid-season stats, throw them out. I’m looking for this team to redefine itself. They have to. Or they’ll be gone.
TARGETS(catches):
Williamson- 6(3)
Taylor- 4(4)
Burleson- 3(2)
MRobinson- 2(1)
KRobinson- 2(1)
Kleinsasser- 2(1)
Wiggins- 1(1)
Moore- 1(1)
Bennett- 1(1)



---

Houston Texans:
Jonathan Wells showed in this game versatility than I thought he had. Wells was solid in all aspects of the game, but he did not excel in any. He’s still a stop gap. The Texans as a team used more short pass plays and quicker drops. The results weren’t great, but they were better. And right now for Houston, that’s the best they can do.

The Texans rank in the bottom third of the league in nearly every statistical category on both offense and defense. In fact, the only thing they are doing well right after eight games in returning and covering kicks.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 11(9)
Bradford- 7(5)
Wells- 5(5)
Morency- 3(1)
Gaffney- 2(1)
Armstrong- 1(1)
Rivers- 1(0)


Jacksonville Jaguars:
With Fred Taylor out again, I am pleasantly surprised to see that Jacksonsville is giving Greg Jones a majority of the team’s carries. I like Jones and I don’t think the move to fullback was the best idea for him. Jones can really move for a guy that big and strong; as he showed on his game-winning 12 yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter against Houston. The Jags put in Alvin Pearman on passing downs, and he does a good job there too. Pearman could probably produce on every down, but putting with a guy like Jones back there makes opposing teams take notice of his presence on the field.

While Jimmy Smith was missing for the first three quarters, Ernest Wilford continued to impress. He’s easily the #2 receiver on this team now and ever since the Jags came off their bye week two games ago, Wilford has received the more passes than any other Jaguar.

Jacksonville’s offense isn’t putting up any stats that are better than they were last year, but new offensive coordinator Carl Smith is doing a good job of drawing up clever plays when he needs them. The Jags have gotten points in every one of their 16 trips to the red zone this year, and they are tied for 5th in the league in red zone TD percentage (62.5%). On third downs, the Jacksonville is ranked 10th. Defensively, the Jags are around the top 5 in every category except against the run. They are 24th in rushing yards per game and 22nd in rushing yards per attempt. That is a concern.
TARGETS(catches):
Wilford- 7(4)
Smith- 5(4)
Pearman- 5(5)
MJones- 4(3)
Wrighster- 2(1)
Taylor- 2(2)

Tuesday Football

Tuesday, October 25th, 2005

San Diego Chargers
The Chargers put themselves in a position to lose this game because of penalties, plain and simple. They had 9 for 72 yards, but every one was huge. The Eagles picked up 4 first downs via a SD penalty.

Both teams looked real sloppy, but San Diego was especially bad.

Caldwell was having a nice game until he fumbled on the 18 yard line with a 1:30 left in the game.

The Chargers only pass rushed 4 players for most of game. Sometimes, they’d send a 5th, but for the most part it seemed they were protecting their secondary. And the Eagles offensive line is one of the best pass blocking units in the league. They had no trouble with the Chargers’ rush.

Don’t worry about Tomlinson. The Eagles did not so much stop LT as they stopped Marty-ball.

In the second half, San Diego found ways to move the ball by using Brees on more short drops with quicker throws. They also began to vary their formations and sets, often lining up Gates in places where they could dictate his matchups. Welcome to the modern day NFL Marty. Guess what, everyone does this from the opening kickoff- not after halftime.

Attention san diego playoff chances, Nate Kaeding is scary. His kicks are still real ugly.
TARGETS(cathces):
Gates- 12(8)
MCCardell- 8(5)
Caldwell- 7(4)
Tomlinson- 6(4)
Parker- 2(0)
Peelle- 2(1)
Osgood- 1(0)
Neal- 1(1)

Philadelphia Eagles
I don’t know why some thought after the Eagles’ week 5 loss to Dallas, that they could not stop the run. In fact, I’ve seen them play extremely well against their opponents’ rushing attack this season and this game against San Diego was further proof of that. The middle of the DL did a good job of collapsing the interior of SD’s offensive line into the backfield.

And Washington should take note, those power right and power left plays that Marty and Gibbs like to run aren’t going to work against Philly.

L.J. Smith looked healthy and showed no ill effects from his ankle injury a couple of weeks ago.
TARGETS(catches):
Westbrook- 13(10)
Smith- 11(6)
OWens- 10(7)
Lewis- 6(4)
Gordon- 5(3)
Spach- 4(1)
Parry- 3(2)
Brown- 1(1)
McMullen- 1(1)



---

Indianapolis Colts
Why does anyone ever blitz the Colts?

Don’t look at the score, this game was never close.
Indianapolis was flat for the entire game, and still it was an easy win for them.
TARGETS(catches):
Harrison- 9(7)
Wayne- 9(9)
Stokely- 5(1)
Clark- 5(3)
James- 1(1)

Houston Texans
The Texans’ offense didn’t really get back on track with their 20 points in this game, but they did show a little life. Houston played a smart first half by giving the ball to Dominick Davis over and over and over again. But there is still just nothing going in the passing game and this team will continue to strike out on third downs. I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, but Houston’s only chance to produce points on offense is if they move more towards a similar offensive philosophy to what Mike Shannahan has going in Denver. Houston is the perfect fit for a one cut running game and bootleg quarterback. The only plays they are making this year are just that. David Carr threw just 9 passes all game.
TARGETS(catches):
Gaffney- 5(4)
Bradford- 1(0)
Mathis- 1(0)
Davis- 1(1)
Rivers- 1(1)



---

Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs came out again with a number of three wide receivers sets. And they’re able to run the ball out of those sets often and effectively. With Sammy Parker out with an injury, Marc Boerigter had a busy night. Tony Gonzalez picked up 7 more catches on the night, but a majority of those came in the fourth quarter when KC had a comfortable lead. The Chiefs held the ball for 41:40 of this game.
TARGETS(catches):
Gonzalez- 9(7)
Boerigter- 7(2)
Hall- 4(3)
Kennison- 4(2)
Holmes- 3(1)
Horn- 2(1)
Dunn- 2(2)
Richardson- 1(1)
Johnson- 1(1)

Miami Dolphins
Gus Frerotte played a terrible game. He was highly inaccurate throughout the contest, until he was pulled late in the fourth. It seems to me like he’s forcing too many deep throws and passing up some of the shorter options. And again, his accuracy was just awful. Gus should have had two touchdown passes in the first half (which would have made it a 14-14 game) but he twice missed open receivers in the end zone on third down.

The Chiefs’ aggressive defense gave Miami’s line trouble. They had just 17 rushing yards in the first half. And other than Ronnie Brown’s impressive 65 yard TD run, the Dolphins’ running game was empty (13 carries for 29 yards).

All Wes Welker does is make plays. He deserves more chances.

Chris Chambers’ first catch of the game came with about 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter. And his second catch, the big touchdown score, came from Sage Rosenfelds with two and a half minutes left in the game.
TARGETS(catches):
Chambers- 11(2)
Booker- 6(2)
McMichael- 6(3)
welker- 4(2)
Brown- 2(2)
Williams- 1(0)
Evans- 1(1)



---

Denver Broncos
Despite their early season success, I still don’t see how this Broncos’ team can go far with Plummer as their quarterback. What he does well is just too limiting. And on a couple of key throws in the third quarter that could have shifted momentum and stick the Giants behind by 17 points, Plummer had time to throw but missed open receivers on back to back plays.
Opposing defenses really have to take into consideration Denver’s FB Kyle Johnson. This guy has some moves and he can really get open.

Denver’s secondary has a lot of talent, but I think the Broncos’ put them in plays with single coverage and little help. Far too often they have to play 10 yards off the line of scrimmage and make things happen on their own.
TARGETS(catches):
Putzier- 6(3)
Lelie- 6(5)
Smith- 4(3)
Alexander- 4(3)
Bell- 4(2)
Johnson- 2(2)
Jackson- 1(0)

New York Giants
Tiki Barber’s fumble in this game came as his body was nearly horizontal, trying to keep his balance. It had nothing to do with his past fumbling problems and should not be of any concern.

The Giants did a great job at containing the Jake Plummer bootleg while still holding their own against the run.

And I don’t think New York’s secondary will suffer without longtime veterans Will Allen and Will Peterson. Both Deloatch and Webster are good, young corners and they have the potential to be solid starters. In fact, this Giants defense has young talent at all three levels.

The crossing routes to Shockey are really working well for this team right now. Opponents are going to have to make that a point of focus for their defenses.
I don’t know why only now people are saying that Eli Manning is a good quarterback. Was that ever up for debate, really? He did spend too much of this game making throws off his back foot. He’s got to learn to stand in the pocket a little better or he runs the risk of turning into Joey Harrington.

Despite his great numbers this season, Plaxico Burress is still not a consistent receiver. With five minutes to go and down by 6, he dogged it on a post pattern and allowed Champ Bailey a chance to make a great interception. The Broncos got the ball on their own 40 and could have closed the game out right there.

This was a great game on both sides, much like last week’s KC/WAS match. Both teams are playing good football right now.
TARGETS(catches):
Burress- 13(6)
Toomer- 13(8)
Shockey- 7(3)
Barber- 7(6)
Carter- 2(0)

Thursday Football

Thursday, October 20th, 2005

The Week 7 Mirl Picks are out. I have a feeling that Houston pick from last week is going to cost me big time.

I’d like to also call out all these people who keep picking double digit favorites as their best bets. Guys, try picking someone besides the Colts and/or whoever is playing the Texans/49ers. So far this year, I’ve gone with KC, PIT, IND, JAX (loser), GB, and CAR as my best bets. And this week I reluctantly like Atlanta at home on Monday night (I’d rather pick a team that wasn’t such a favorite, but I’m still the lone Atlanta best better- not all the picks have been posted yet though). I was tempted to go with the Steelers, but Ben Burger’s health left me with some doubt. That’s going to be one heck of a game.

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons need to be worried about their run defense. Maybe they’re missing Hartwell’s presence in the middle, but for the second week in a row they were gashed by an opponents’ ground game. Lucky for them, they get to face a banged up Jets team this week on Monday night before going into their bye week. Were it not for their fantastic special teams, the Falcons would have probably been blown out in this game.
TARGETS(catches):
Crumpler- 7(4)
DWhite- 4(0)
Jenkins- 3(2)
Dunn- 2(2)
Griffith- 2(2)
Finneran- 1(0)
RWhite- 1(1)
Blakley- 1(0)
Duckett- 1(0)

New Orleans Saints
The Saints always seem to play the Falcons tough and they also seem to playing well in their adopted home of San Antonio.

I didn’t get a chance to mention last week my thoughts about the McAllister injury. But as I wrote here in the Swamp the day after Duece’s injury, the Saints have two decent runners in Stecker and Smith, but more importantly, McAllister wasn’t really tearing things up anyhow. To me he looked a step or two slow in the Saints’ first three games, then improved a little in week four against Buffalo, only to then fell apart in Green Bay. And as this game against Atlanta showed, New Orleans probably isn’t going to miss McAllister too much this year. It’s kind of like they were already missing him.

The Saints do need to get Joe Horn back and 100%. He’s a guy they can’t afford to keep missing.
TARGETS(catches):
Hakim- 9(6)
Stallworth- 8(7)
Henderson- 8(4)
Stecker- 3(2)
Horn- 1(0)
Poole- 1(1)
Hilton- 1(1)
Karney- 1(1)



---

Minnesota Vikings
How did this game get so out of hand? The Bears had 31 total yards of offense in the first quarter and the score was tied 0-0 with the Vikings driving into Chicago territory. The Vikes had already botched one field goal attempt when Edinger shanked a 52 yard try to start the second quarter. Minnesota then recovered a Bears’ fumble at mid-field, drive the ball down to the 2 yard line, and then had to kick a 23 yard field goal. After surrendering 28 unanswered points, nothing that happened during their bye week kept them from sucking.

The Vikings began three of their first eight drives at the 50 yard line and all they did with the ball was find different ways to not score. Looking back, I don’t know why I picked them to win this week against Green Bay.

Jerome Wiggins is essentially a wide receiver who was asked a long time ago to weigh 30 pounds more than he ever should.
TARGETS(catches):
Wiggins- 15(10)
Williamson- 12(4)
Moore- 9(5)
MRobinson- 6(4)
Taylor- 4(2)
KRobinson- 1(1)
Kleinsasser- 1(0)
Williams- 1(0)

Chicago Bears
The Bears didn’t do anything on offense in the first half until Bobby Wade set them up at mid-field with a 49 yard punt return. Chicago ended up leading 7-3 at the half, even though they could have easily been down 21-7. They have played so much better at home over the last few years, probably because they are eternally led by some kind of young quarterback. Orton again played well enough to keep the Bears in the game, but as I mentioned above, Minnesota had plenty of chances to take a commanding lead. This game was only 14-3 going into the fourth quarter. Yet still I picked them to win this week because they host a team that is almost a mirror image of themselves (Ravens). Key on the word ‘host.’
TARGETS(catches):
Muhammad- 12(5)
Clark- 4(4)
Bradley- 3(1)
Edwards- 2(2)
Wade- 1(1)
Reid- 1(1)
TJones- 1(1)
Peterson- 1(1)



---

Carolina Panthers
Ugly, lucky, and with a bye this week.
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 9(6)
Proehl- 9(5)
Gardner- 5(4)
Colbert- 3(3)
Goings- 3(2)
Mangum- 1(0)
Seidman- 1(0)
Robertson- 1(0)

Detroit Lions
The Lions defense played aggressive and fast in this game. They deserved a better fate but when it came down to it they were responsible for keeping Carolina out of the end zone on the game’s final drive and they couldn’t come through.

The Lions have a good chance to defeat each of their next four opponents; starting this week in Cleveland. With the defense playing as well as they are, a change at quarterback may be all they need to kick start a 4-0 run. And it is indeed time for a change. Harrington just is not a play maker at the position and that Garcia is. After facing the Browns this week, the Lions are at home against the Bears, then at Minnesota, and home vs the Cardinals. They need to be 6-3 when facing Atlanta in week 11, cause they also still have the Steelers and the Bengals on their schedule.
TARGETS(catches):
KJohnson- 6(4)
Pollard- 5(3)
KJones- 3(2)
Martinez- 3(0)
MWilliams- 2(0) Vines- 2(1)
Fitzsimmons- 2(1)
Bryson- 2(2)
Pinner- 2(1)
Smith- 1(1)



---

New York Giants
The Giants were a +3 in turnovers during the first half but they were held to a total of just 6 points because they could not contain a strong Dallas pass rush.

I have no doubt that the sun/shade spots on the field- caused by the late start time- causes problems for both passing games. There were numerous occasions where receivers could not track the ball in or out of the sun/shawows. Plaxico Burress in particular had noticeable trouble picking up the football.

The Giants host Denver this week, and NY has scored 42 and 44 points at home so far this year. Their struggles on offense against Dallas began and ended with their inability to give Manning time to throw. Eli did improve in the fourth quarter by looking more for the underneath passess and towards Shockey.

I wouldn’t completely blame Brandon Jacobs for his late goal line fumble. Derrick Ward served as Tiki Barber’s running back for all of the game until that play just inside two minutes. Why would the Giants’ coaches put a guy in a position like that who’s been standing on the sidelines for the last three hours. TARGETS(catches):
Burress- 11(5)
Shockey- 10(5)
Toomer- 3(2)
Carter- 3(1)
Barber- 1(1)

Dallas Cowboys:
With Julius Jones sitting out, the Giants had little reason to fear the Cowboys running game going into this match and Dallas did very little to change New York’s mind. Despite being one of the deepest teams in the NFL at the RB position, Dallas came out throwing and did little to establish a rhythm or balance on offense. If Jones misses more time, Tyson Thompson is really the teams best run option on first and second downs, with Barber coming on a third down.

This was a real sloppy game on both sides; one that featured 8 turnovers. Through the end of regulation time, Dallas held the ball for 36:59, compared to NY’s 23:01.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 14(8)
Glenn- 8(6)
Witten- 5(5)
Crayton- 4(4)
Barber- 3(2)
Campbell- 1(1)
Thomas- 1(0)



---

Houston Texans:
I really did think the Texans had a chance here. They ran the ball well against the Titans last week and Seattle has a tough time getting pressure on the quarterback with just their front four. With Engram and Jackson still out, and following a big win against the Rams, I really thought this was a game that Seattle might sleep on. I guess not, and I guess the Texans are destined for one of those awful 1-15 type seasons. Good thing they get to face the Colts this week.
TARGETS(catches):
Gaffney- 13(10)
Bradford- 9(4)
Davis- 3(2)
Wells- 2(1)
Armstrong- 1(1)
Rivers- 1(1)

Seattle Seahawks:
How many touchdowns does Shaun Alexander have in prime time now? TARGETS(catches):
Jurevicius- 5(3)
Warrick- 5(3)
Strong- 4(3)
Urban- 2(2)
Stevens- 2(2)
Alexander- 2(1)



---

Three more games to cover tomorrow or Saturday morning.

Friday Football

Friday, September 23rd, 2005

AFC Targets, and related team news from Week Two:

BAL- In their first game with Anthony Wright at quarterback, Derrick Mason was the most active Ravens receiver. He caught 8 passes on 10 targets for 60 yards and a score. The tightends, all three of them, were again heavily featured. Heap, Wilcox, and Dinkins had 11 total passes thrown their way. With a bye this week, Baltimore’s top priority is to find their running game.

BUF- J.P. Losman was lucky he didn’t leave Tampa with two or three interceptions to his credit. Josh Reed picked up 7 targets, as did Eric Moulds. But the real story with the Bills right now is with their running back, Willis McGahee. He and Coach Mularkey have had a minor media fued this week in reference to McGahee’s running style lately. I, too, noticed in the preseason that he looked hesitant. The 1-1 Bills face another tough defense this week as they host Atlanta, and McGahee needs to show that he can dominate games because J.P. Losman can’t.

CIN- After picking up 4 more targets against the Vikings, Chris Perry now has 10 total on the season. He also had an impressive 87 yard flare pass called back on Sunday by a holding penalty. Chad Johnson was again the team leader, with 13. He’s on pace for a 184 target season (last year he had 158). Chris Henry looked good, catching 4 of the 4 passes thrown his way. And T.J. Houshmandzadeh picked up 4 red zone targets.

CLE- Trent Dilfer is doing a good job so far this season at getting the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s also spreading his targets around well. Steve Heiden led the team with 8, as the Packers have been hurt by tight ends a lot this year (Marcus Pollard in week 1). Billy Miller also got a chance in the end zone that was knocked away by a defender. As expected, Frisman Jackson only had two passes thrown his way and everyone saw what Braylon Edwards did with three of his four targets. The Browns will face a very fast Colts defense this week, and I expect their rather immobile offensive line to have all kinds of troubles.

DEN- The Broncos did all they could to lose to the Chargers, but it didn’t take. Denver turned the ball over twice inside the Chargers’ 30 and Elam missed two field goals in their first 8 possessions. But 10 fourth quarter points led them to a key divisional victory. Rod Smith (11) and Ashley Lelie (10) led the team in targets and Jeb Putzier had a surprisingly low 3. Charlie Adams seems to still be the #3 WR, as he got 4 passes thrown to him. Darius Watts had just one. The Broncos host KC on Monday night, and they should doing so with an 0-2 record. Still, they also could have beaten San Diego by three touchdowns. Denver’s defense played well.

HOU- Awful.

IND- The Colts are going to expload this week, I can just feel it. They’ve faced two of the best defenses in the league, and yes they are going against Romeo Crennel this week but his Browns just don’t have the talent to do what the Pats have done in the past. Dallas Clark played his first game of the season and he picked up 3 targets. The WR trio maitained their form; Harrison 8, Wayne 7, Stokely 5.

JAX- Reggie Williams continued his rise, with 4 catches on 5 targets. The Jags also kept Matt Jones involved with 3 targets. But Jimmy Smith is still the clear #1. He picked up 7 passes.

KC- Almost by default, Eddie Kennison is still the top WR on the Chiefs. He had a career high 1086 yards in just 14 games last year. He picked up 102 targets last year and is on pace for 104 this season. But I still like #2 guy Sammy Parker. He had 6 passes thrown to him against Oakland, catching 3 for a 28.7 ypc average. In the red zone, the Chiefs went to their running backs 10 times in week one, and 11 times last week. Tony Gonzalez has just two RZ chances on the season. He’s a little behind his three year average of 21.6 and he’s got those talented Denver linebackers to deal with this week.

MIA- Randy McMichael was busy against the Jets, pulling in 8 passes on 11 targets. On the year, he has 14 catches on 18 targets, and four looks inside the red zone. Chris Chambers is also getting a lot of passes, as he has 20 targets on the year and five inside the twenty. But Chambers only has 6 receptions so far.

NE- Daniel Graham only got one pass thrown his way in week two, but it was a 1 yard touchdown strike. Ben Watson is still the top TE target, he got 5 more passes thrown to him against Carolina. Deion Branch (14, 25 in two weeks) is the clear #1 and David Givens (9) a solid #2 guy. New England’s offense really struggled last week. They only ran one play in the red zone (Graham) and that was only after Troy Brown’s 71 yard pass play that ended on the 1. Their best starting field position was from their own 33 and they made it into Carolina territory just four times (TD, INT, FG, Fumble).

NYJ- Laveranues Coles and Justin McCareins had identical target numbers in week two (10 and 8, respectively). Not too much else going on here. The Jets are still finding their way around their new offense.

OAK- Lamont Jordan had a tough time hanging on to the ball against the Chiefs. He caught just 6 of the 11 passes thrown to him. Many of those incompletes were due to Jordan trying to run with the catch too soon. I still think he’s a above average receiver, especially considering his size. The errors he made Sunday night were not really physical; he definitely has the hands to catch 70-80 passes this year and he’s obviously going to get the chance to in this offense (see the OAK preview). After two weeks, it looks like I might be wrong about Randy Moss. He’s got 10 catches and two scores so far and that’s in line with the projections I had him at. But the 257 yards he’s racked up is way ahead of the pace I’d thought he’d go on. In fact, he’s on pace for 2056 and even though it’s only two games, I didn’t see him getting to 1600. But that looks to be where Moss is headed. He’s getting the ball thrown to him plenty (22 total targets). Jerry Porter had 11 targets in week two and with Ronald Curry out of the year, Porter should see an increase in his production. Also look for Doug Gabriel to make an impact as he returns this week from a finger injury.

PIT- All of these crazy Pittsburgh stats are either very misleading or they underscore how fantastic this team is playing. We’ll find out this week, but from my point of view, it looks like they are rolling.

SD- The Chargers got Antonio Gates involved right away, as he went 8 for 8 in passes. Keenan McCardell continued his high pace with 8 more targets, giving him 22 on the year. And not only has LT not caught a pass all season, but he’s only been thrown one ball.

TEN- Steve McNair used his back heavily against the Ravens, throwing 15 passes to the trio of Chris Brown, Travis Henry, and Troy Fleming. In turn, the tight ends saw considerably fewer balls (4, down from 13). The wide receivers were led by Drew Bennett (8) and Brandon Jones (6). The Titans are back on the road to St. Louis this week.

And from the NFC…
CAR- The Pats were focused on slowing Steve Smith. He only had 4 catches on 6 targets for 34 yards. Keary Colbert had 7 balls thrown his way but didn’t come down with one. Ricky Proehl stepped up for the Panthers, catching 3 of 3. And Rod Gardner, who reportedly has been slow to learn the offense, picked up one red zone chance. It’s Stephen Davis’ team inside the twenty, he scored 3 RZ touchdowns on 6 chances.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Houston Texans

Monday, August 22nd, 2005

INDEX

Chris Palmer
-entering fifth season with Texans

It’s hard to get excited about these Texans because it seems like we were down this very same same road last year.

What has changed?

This past off-season, the main story coming out of Houston was the maturation of David Carr and how the team was going to slightly redesign their offense in order to protect him more. They are intending on doing that by using more short drops/quick throws when they send out four or five receivers. But this offense won’t be confused with a Bill Walsh system any time soon. In 2005, this team will still use conservative play calling to control the clock and take shots down the field when the opportunity is right (sometimes, at least).

Offensive Coordinator Chris Palmer, who was head coach of the Browns during their expansion years, is officially on the hot seat after his Texans, despite their improvement, only managed to scored the 21st most points in the league last season. In support of Palmer, Houston has improved in each of their previous three years of existence- both in record and in offensive rankings.

In 2002, the Texans went 4-12, finishing last (32nd) in points scored and total yards. The following season, Houston won one additional game (5-11) and leaped up to 28th best in points and 31st in total yards. Last year, they finished 7-9, 21st in points, and 15th in total yards but more impressive was their balance. Their 3555 passing yards last season were 16th best (right in the middle of the league) and their 1874 rushing yards were good for 13th.

So while most expected last season to be the year the Texans pulled themselves out of last place, is this really the year they become a contender for a playoff spot?

While Palmer has a strong reputation for developing quarterbacks, it can be argued that Andre Johnson would already be an NFL superstar if Palmer would focus more of his attention on getting 2003’s 3rd overall pick the ball more. Further criticism is directed at Palmer by those who feel that he’s turning David Carr into another version of Tim Couch (the quarterback Cleveland selected first overall to build their expansion team around).

I don’t necessarily think the latter to be true but there is no doubt that Johnson has the ability to do more than what the Texans have asked him to do. Entering now his third NFL season, the former Miami Hurricane averaged 14.8 yards per catch his rookie season, and 14.5 last year. In contrast, Randy Moss has averaged 15.9 and Terrell Owens has averaged 14.6 in their careers so far. The problem here isn’t really that the Texans don’t do enough to get Johnson the ball, after all he did finish 17th in total targets last season, it’s just that they don’t do enough to put Johnson in a position to make a play on his own. In other words, they throw too frequently to Andre down the field and they need to do more to get him the ball closer to the line of scrimmage.

Tied directly to Johnson’s developement into an elite WR will be the play of fourth year receiver Corey Bradford. The former 5th round pick has the size (6-1, 200) and speed to play along the outside- therefore allowing the Texans to move Johnson in motion, into the slot, and anywhere else they can try to get him matched up against linebackers, safeties, and nickel backs. Consistency has been a problem for Bradford, but he’s said to be having good preseason.

David Carr threw for 3531 yards last year and it’s a very good bet that he’ll reach 3500 again in 2005. The biggest problem with the Texans is and will continue to be their red zone production. Last year, inside the 20, the Texans did finish 6th in the league in TD% inside the redzone (59.1). But a closer look at their numbers show that they only made 44 trips inside the twenty and nine of those times they walked away with no points at all. And already this preseason, the Texans’ first team offense was stopped on four straight downs from inside the 5 by the Broncos and they almost did the same thing against Oakland in PWeek2. Carr runs very well for a quarterback and he throws even better on the run, but the team’s lack of red zone production combined with his poor TD/INT ratio will keep Carr from being a top 10 fantasy quarterback.

Domanick Davis looks to be the clear starter at running back, but Houston has a ton of options behind him should something happen. Tony Hollings, Jonathan Wells, and rookie Vernand Morency have all looked strong this preseason. Since Davis is just a 5-9, 220lbs slasher, part of the Texans’ red zone troubles have to do with his inability to consistently gain straight ahead yards in close quarters. FB/RB Wells could steal more than the three touchdowns he scored last year as a result. But Hollings will most likely serve as Davis’ backup this season, considering they are similar in size and running style. Regardless, Davis will be sharing a good portion of the team’s carries again this season and if he’s to again be a top 10 fantasy back, he’ll need to make up yards as a receiver.