Archive for the ‘Green Bay’ Category

Koren Robinson is back

Wednesday, October 17th, 2007

The Packers already deep WR corps is getting deeper.

The NFL has reinstated Koren Robinson.

The Packers have a buy this week, so he’ll have some extra time to get back into the flow of things. I’d expect to see him returning kicks immediately, as he did last season.

2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Green Bay Packers

Sunday, August 5th, 2007

Mike McCarthy - 2nd season as head coach
Joe Philbin - 1st season as offensive coordinator, 5th with team

Background:
The Packers began last December with a record of 4-8, following a crushing 10-38 home loss to the Jets. After that loss, the 2006 Packers rallied to string together four straight wins to help make their season not be the complete disaster it was destined to be under Mike Mularkey’s first year as head coach.

But when you look at how the Packers won four of those last four games of their 2006 season, you’ll see that it was done against a poor list of opponents and on the back of a rapidly improving defense.

In only their 30-19 win in San Francisco did Brett Favre have a good game, statistically. Ahman Green never went over 79 yards in either of those four contents. Donald Driver, meanwhile, was the go-to man for the first three games, catching 25 passes for 329 yards. Favre relied too heavily on Driver down the stretch last season mostly because Driver was the only consistent option for Favre to throw to downfield.

Football Prospectus ranked the DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value over Average) for the Packers’ offense in those last four games at: 16.2%, -55.6%, -24.6%, and 14.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, their defense’s DVOA for those four games was: -14.1%, -71.4%, -61.26, and -91.2%.

One of those wins came in the rain against the Vikings as Tarvaris Jackson made his first NFL start one to forget. Green Bay’s last win of the year was against the Bears, who were resting many of their starters for the playoffs. Another win came against the Lions, who were mired in game six of a seven game losing streak.

So how good can the Packers feel about 2007? They have a solid defense that should be stout against the run this coming season, but the offense will again rely on the production of youngsters in order to be competitive.

Philosophy:
The Packers are a zone blocking run offense that like to throw the ball down the field along the sidelines. There’s reason for optimism as the young offensive line of 2006 (both starting guards were rookies, Spitz and Colledge) should continue to improve in their second season together.

McCarthy will continue to call the plays and the team should improve their understanding of the offense based on the high number of returning players and coaches involved this system.

The Packers were the second worst team in the NFL on first downs and in the red zone in 2006 (based on DVOA). That poor number was a result in a pass-heavy offense that threw the ball on first down 53% of the time. The Packers were even pass-heavy when playing in the lead; throwing 50% of the time.

McCarthy expects to concentrate more on the run this season, but it remains to be seen whether he can stay true to that word, especially with the question marks at running back.

Players:
Driver was thrown 172 passes in 2006, second most in the NFL behind Torry Holt. He converted on 55% of those attempts for a career high 92 catches. Driver’s production has eclipsed 1200 yards in each of the last three seasons, so he’s been as consistent as any WR in the league. His catch total should drop based on the improved health of Jennings (below) and the addition of youth into this part of the depth chart.

Showing a unique ability to quickly pick up the offense as a rookie WR, Greg Jennings wasn’t able to return to his early season level after he sprained his ankle midseason. When healthy, Jennings was averaging about 5 catches a game for close to 90 yards. Obviously those numbers are too high to project as probable over 16 games (80 - 1440), but as a solid #2 option on a team that will struggle to match last season’s win total, 1000 yard seasons out of Driver and Jennings isn’t out of the question especially when you consider the depth chart at WR includes only Robert Ferguson and a slew of raw talent ( Jones, Martin, Clowney ).

In the backfield, McCarthy has made comments leading to believe he’d prefer to have a starting running back, but is comfortable with a rotation if needed:

“You’d always like to see someone jump up and grab a position, because I think when that happens, obviously productivity increases,” he said. “But once again, you want as much competition. It’s a long season, God forbid injuries are part of our game. So I’m very comfortable if it takes three, if it takes two, if it takes one. That doesn’t bother me at all. That’s the job of the coaching staff, to take advantage of the personnel.”

Vernand Morency, who has added about 8 pounds to his frame, is expected to get the first chance as starter, but already this season has raised doubts about his durability with an early knee injury. Morency is much more of a slashing runner, compared to the departed Ahman Green. Both are fast, but Green was punishing while Morency’s style is more elusive. And as a result, he’s struggled in the past to not only be healthy but also that consistent one-cut, zone blocking type runner.

Out of all the backs, Brandon Jackson is probably the best fit for this offense, but he’s young player who left Nebraska early and has been slow to develop so far this preseason.

Watching him run with the first team offense in their team scrimmage rebroadcasted on the NFL Network this week, Jackson showed the great ability to catch the football he’s be acclaimed for. As a runner, he has good vision, quick feet, runs low to the ground, gets skinny in the hole, and seems to always fall forward. He’s not particularly fast and doesn’t have a lot of moves in space, but looks like a reliable 4.2 yards per carry back who can line up in the slot and be a weapon out wide as well.

Rookie DeShawn Wynn is a power back out of Florida who could factor in near the goal line because of his size and running style. And Noah Herron’s versatility and reliability in pass protection will see him on the field on third and longs and in the two minute drill; thus limiting the amount of time Jackson or Morency will see anyhow.

It just doesn’t look like a good situation for fantasy owners. The passing game should still rule in Green Bay.

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - Green Bay Packers

Thursday, November 16th, 2006

23-17 at MIN

The Packers tried to come out throwing against the Vikings, just like the Patriots did on Monday Night Football. But the Packers struggled early to make it work. They went three and out on their first drive. On the first two plays of their second drive, Green Bay ran the ball twice and got 2 yards on those 2 runs.

6 out of their next 7 plays, naturally, were pass plays. But when they got into the red zone, it was run, run, run, field goal. Strange play calling.

Eventually, it paid off though. When pinned inside their 5 yard line with 2 minutes left in the first half, Favre came out throwing and on their third play out he hit Driver for an 82 yard pass on what was only designed to be a 10 yard slant. Minnesota’s defense is clearly struggling.

Greg Jennings continues to play through his injury, although he doesn’t look 100%. Donald Driver, who could have had another TD if it weren’t for a dropped slant pass in the end zone, leads the Packers with 94 targets on the season. He got 11 for 6 catches in this game against Minnesota.

2006 | Week 2 - Green Bay Packers

Thursday, September 21st, 2006

27-34 vs NO

Targets stats only this week.

CATCHES / TARGETS:
Jennings - 6/12
Green - 6/11
Driver - 8/10
Martin - 6/7
Franks - 3/7
Ferguson - 1/5
Herron - 1/1

2006 | Week 1 - Green Bay Packers

Thursday, September 14th, 2006

0-26 vs CHI

The trade of Samkon Gado has Mike Sherman’s finger prints all over it. Sherman is in Houston now as an assistant HC and OC and his style isn’t the traditional zone blocking scheme that everyone thinks Houston is running under Gary Kubiak. Reports were that before this trade, Gado was the #3 back to Noah Herron and that Gado has struggled a little bit to adjust to the zone blocking scheme that Green Bay has moved to.

Mike McCarthy is quoted to say that Morency will be used on third downs and that “He’s OK (as a blocker). He’s a shifty, make-you-miss kind of guy. He’s good on check downs and things like that.” Morency also stuggled a little this preseason to adjust to Houston’s one-cut demands, but he should prove to be a good backup to Ahman Green. Morency is indeed a willing blocker and has great quickness and speed.

Back to the Bears game, the Packers ran the ball well all game. Ahman Green looked strong and the OLine did enough to open lanes for Green to run. He’s still just 29 years old and has shown he has plenty left in the tank. This looks like it’ll be a strong season for Green.

But the Packers’ offense couldn’t convert in week 1. They ran too much in the first half, and then compensated by throwing too much in the second half. It seemed like they either had no real game plan, or it was just bad. They fell into exactly what Chicago wants you to do, fall behind as they move easily into their cover 2 defense when protecting a lead.

Compounding all that, is Brett Favre’s maddening ability to let a small deficit turn into a large one. Favre when playing from behind over the last few years has been nothing but a disaster. Last season, when playing with a 1-8 point lead he posted a 82.2 passer rating. When playing from behind 1-8 points, he posted a 82.0 passer rating. But when playing down 9-16 points, he makes stupid throws like he did in the early fourth quarter of Sunday’s game and ends up with a passer rating close to the 46.0 he put up last year when behind by that many points.

Targets/Catches:
Driver - 7/11
Green - 3/4
Ferguson - 2/5
Jennings - 1/4
Lee - 1/1
Herron - 1/1
Gado - 1/1
Leach - 0/1
Martin - 0/1

2006 NFL Draft Recap - Green Bay Packers

Sunday, April 30th, 2006

2006 Draft Picks

No team, not even the Texans, had more holes to fill coming into this year’s draft than did the Green Bay Packers. And with 12 picks, perhaps no team has improved themselves as much as Green Bay. 12 picks is alot, and it’s two more than than what franchise mode on Madden will let you have. 12 picks: two in the second, two in the third, two in the fourth, two in the fifth, and two in the sixth; to go with their 5th overall in the first and the 253rd overall (out of 255) in the seventh.

While quantity does not always equal quality, I think the Packers did themselves very well. Of course, they got A.J. Hawk, the player who many think has the highest floor of any other pick this year. But their second round pick, offensive lineman Daryn Colledge is a versatile talent who can step in and play right away. He’s more of an athlete than a mauler, but Colledge’s technique is sound and at the Senior Bowl this former Boise State star showed he can play against the best of this year’s draft.

Another guy who will probably play right away for Green Bay in 2006 is linebacker Abdul Hodge. This former Iowa Hawkeye is one of those hard to find three down inside linebackers who’s aggressive enough to play the run and quick enough to cover the middle of the field. Combined with Hawk, Green Bay picked up two LBs that they can plug in right away and leave on the field until the Brett Favre comes on.

To address the loss of Javon Walker, Green Bay took three wide receivers this year: Greg Jennings, Cory Rodgers, and Will Blackmon. Jennings, selected 57th overall, is a polished and proven producer. He’ll most likely earn a starting job this coming season because he’s got great hands and runs good routes. Rodgers had a poor Combine, but is said to have a history of production behind him. Blackmon is the guy who’s a more natural DB that has been working as a WR for the last two years. I think he’ll end up on the defensive side of the ball where he’s better suited, but if the Packers need him to, Blackmon can catch passes too.

Yet, out of all those picks, there’s none I like better than Green Bay’s 5th round, 148 overall selection of Furman quarterback, Ingle Martin.

Here’s a quick rundown of what Martin has done:
• Started 27 games at Furman, going 21-6
• Won 3 straight Tennessee state championships in High School
• As a redshirt freshman, went 7/10 for 96 yards as a QB at Florida, backing up Rex Grossman
  Also caught 2 passes for 14 yards and ran 11 times for 51 yards
  Averaged 35.2 yards per punt on 46 attempts
• Started 4 games as a sophomore at UF until replaced by Chris Leak
  Went 47/77 for 654 yards in those games with 3 TDs
• Didn’t lose a year of eligibility since he transfered to a D-1AA school
• Threw for 2.959 and 20 touchdowns his senior year, finishing 11-3 and as the 3rd ranked team in 1-AA
Martin’s nfl.com bio says that he did not line up under center much at Furman, but this 2004 Pitt article notes:

The Paladins utilize a number of offensive sets — including a version of the winged-T — and he is usually taking snaps under center as opposed to the Gators’ shotgun.

Also, Martin’s espn.com bio says that he:

…isn’t fundamentally sound, he makes some poor decisions and he is inconsistent. With all that in mind, Martin is worth the risk in the final two rounds of the 2006 draft.

I didn’t see any of those ‘fundamentally sound’ problems in these Combine clips. Martin was one probably the most impressive QBs at Indy, after Cutler.

The nfl.com bio seems to clear things up. They write:

He has very good technique at times, but when he loses focus, his footwork gets sloppy and it hinders his passing.

Since almost everyone agrees he isn’t ready to play in the NFL right away anyhow, I don’t see how the ‘weaknesses’ are anything that good coaching can’t work with.

Martin was not at the Senior bowl, but he did throw the ball very well at the Combine. His short and intermediate throws were very impressive and Martin showed he can get the ball out quickly and on time. He’s very athletic- ran a 4.68 40, 4.17 short shuttle at Combine and also had the top ball speed at 62 mph- and in addition to throwing passes, he has experience running, catching and punting the football at the collegiate level.

Martin is exactly the kind of player the Packers can take a chance on. I am not sold on Aaron Rodgers’ ability to play championship level NFL football, and Martin can come in with very little pressure on him and also no immediate time-table to perform.

Thursday Football

Thursday, November 10th, 2005

Only one game for now. Things ran behind. I’ll post more games later tonight and the picks should be up either tonight or tomorrow morning.

Pittsburgh - Green Bay

Pittsburgh Steelers:
I’ll never underestimate the depth of the Steelers after their week 17 ripping of Buffalo when the Bills were at home and needed a win to get into the playoffs. And even when they had to start Tommy Maddux earlier this year against Jacksonville, as bad as Maddux was, they were in a position to win that game in overtime.

At the season’s halfway point, the Steelers are just 25th in the league in total yards per game. But that is a stat that lies. They are 5th in the league in average rushing yards per game, also a stat that lies. Because of the leads Pittsburgh has played with, take a look at their average yards per rush/pass. They are 18th in average yards per rush and 7th in average yards per pass. Those numbers are a little skewed too, but if you put it all together, you’ve got an offense that should probably be rated around 10-12 in the NFL. The Steelers are just 31st in third down efficiency, but that should also be factored in to when those uncoverted third downs are coming. Pittsburgh ranks 12th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage (57.1%), so I’m not concerned about their ability to convert a third down when they need to.

Pittsburgh ranks 5th in the NFL in point differential, 5th in turnover edge, and 6th in penalty yards edge; three of the best stats to look at to see how a team is playing.
TARGETS(catches):
Wilson- 3(1)
Ward- 2(1)
Randle El- 2(0)
Miller- 2(2)
Parker- 2(1)
Kreider- 2(2)
Staley- 2(2)
Haynes- 1(0)


Green Bay:
Samkon Gado wasn’t Green Bay’s first choice at running back going into this game, but Reshard Lee was pulled in the first quarter after losing a fumble and it was Gado for the rest of the way. I first wrote about Gado on 10.24.05 when I found a quote on PFW of one scout comparing him to Willie Parker. Well, Gado looks bigger than Parker, and he’s not nearly as explosive of a runner. And if Gado truly has 4.4 speed, it takes him a few strides to get going that fast; whereas Willie Parker is able to hit his top gear in just a couple of steps. Gado did show good ball security though, and he was a decent enough receiver out of the backfield.

The Packers are 29th in the league in turnover differential. They are 30th in the league in rushing yards per game and dead last in average rush per game. They are doing something well; Green Bay ranks 2nd in the NFL in third down effeciency. TARGETS(catches):
Driver- 9(5)
Franks- 7(3)
Lee- 7(3)
Chatman- 5(4)
Henderson- 3(3)
Gado- 1(1)
Williams- 1(1)

Wednesday Football

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2005

Arizona Cardinals:
The Cards are trying to use more I-back, two WR sets in order to get more production from their running game, but the results just aren’t there. I guess we’ll see how Kurt Warner does this week. I still don’t understand why Warner was brought in. Josh McCown isn’t great, but you can count on him giving his best. How many games has Warner won this year?

Speaking of McCown, Dallas got good results by getting early pressure on the Cardinals QB. In the second quarter there were two key drives where Arizona could have stayed even with the Cowboys going into halftime. But because of the pressure, and more importantly the fear of pressure, McCown unloaded about six straight passes that were forced or thrown too soon. And so as a result, after a relatively good first quarter, McCown was off target with most of his throws for the rest of the afternoon.

J.J. Arrington continues to show that he has very little understanding on how to run behind blockers. He’s up there on the list of backs that needs to be traded to Denver.

Larry Fitzgerald had a number of jump ball chances in this game, but the Cowboys did a good job of keeping multiple defenders around him at all times.
TARGETS(catches):
Fitzgerald- 11(4)
Boldin- 8(3)
Johnson- 5(2)
Shipp- 5(4)
Bergen- 1(1)
Ayanbedejo- 1(1)
Arrington- 1(1)


Dallas Cowboys:
Bill Parcells loves to face a team who uses plenty of blitzes and so getting ready to face Arizona must have been a fun week for him and his offensive staff.

Marion Barber is a good back, but he really had a ton of room to run on Sunday against Arizona. Dallas ran especially well behind the left side of their line, but the right end struggled to keep defenders back. Most of the profitable runs to the right were as a result of cut backs of plays starting left.

Keyshaun Johnson has been a very consistent performer this season. He’s been thrown no less than 6 passes in any one week, he’s scored in four different games and added a 120 yard effort in one game he didn’t score in.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 7(6)
Witten- 5(5)
Glenn- 4(3)
Price- 2(1)
Barber- 2(2)
Pierce- 1(1)
Polite- 1(1)



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Chicago Bears:
The Bears ended the first quarter having held the ball for just 3:29 and with only 10 total yards of offense. This is just not a good road team and for them to take this one from Detroit is just huge for their season. (They did end up with 216 yards of offense for the first half.)

Losing Mark Bradley is just an awful break for Chicago. Not only was he becoming a protege of Muhammad, but Bradley was beginning to show that great run after catch ability he flashed at Oklahoma. I don’t know if it was a coincidence, but the Bears’ offense did nothing after Bradley went down with his knee injury (which, by the way, was another 100% turf casualty).

Chicago hit a lot of skinny posts in this game. Orton has such a great arm, that when he makes that throw it’s almost impossivle to defend.

The Bears’ defense is probably the fastest in the league. And they just pounded Jeff Garcia in this game.
TARGETS(catches):
Muhammad- 9(4)
Bradley- 5(5)
Jones- 5(3)
Gage- 4(2)
Clark- 4(1)
Wade- 2(0)
Edwards- 1(1)
Peterson- 1(1)

Detroit Lions:
Kevin Jones’ game is really picking up. He turned it on late last year and it looks like he’s about to do something big real soon. Jones looks as quick, as fast, and as strong as ever. And that was obvious before his third quarter TD run where he beat a very good linebacker (Briggs) around the right corner for the score.

Charles Rogers is back this week, but the Lions have good depth at WR even with Kevin Johnson out. Scottie Vines is a good athlete at that position and he’s a quality fourth option.
TARGETS(catches):
Vines- 8(5)
MWilliams- 7(3)
Jones- 6(5)
Pollard- 5(3)
Bryson- 5(5)
Pinner- 1(1)
Martinez- 1(1)



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Minnesota Vikings:
How will Minnesota’s offense run with Brad Johnson behind center? Johnson will certainly bring more efficiency, but he doesn’t have Culpepper’s arm strength. That may actually be a good thing because it will force the Vikings to use more controlled pass plays, something they should have done from the beginning of the season. Minnesota also has to do something about the awful routes their receivers run. On almost every play they will run straight ahead for seven yards, stutter step about six times to try to sell the myth that they’re breaking their route short (which they never do), and then they will go deep. No one’s buying it.

There is just no aggresiveness on defense here. What happened to the attacking style they said they were going to play? Pat Williams continues to be the team’s best defender.
TARGETS(catches):
Williams- 7(3)
Taylor- 5(2)
MRobinson- 5(4)
Wiggins- 5(3)
Williamson- 4(1)
Burleson- 3(1)
Kleinsasser- 2(1)
Moore- 1(1)

Carolina Panthers:
Shame on the Vikings for thinking they could cover Steve Smith with just Fred Smoot. 11 catches for 201.

Smith did his damage with the smoothest, most subtle moves you’ll see out of a receiver. He absolutely had Smoot’s number.

There’s been a lot of flea flickers in the league over the last few weeks, but I yet to see one work. The big thing about these plays is that the wide receivers really have to sell it, and just by judging the results, they are not getting anyone to bite.

The Panthers’ run game has struggled, but with DeShaun Foster back in the lineup they looked improved. He definitely adds something to their attack that Carolina needs to succeed.

Keep an eye on TE Michael Gaines. He had two big catches in this game and I like how comfortable he looks as a receiver (he’s 280 pounds).
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 11(11)
Foster- 5(1)
Colbert- 4(2)
Proehl- 3(2)
Gardner- 2(1)
Gaines- 2(2)
Davis- 2(1)
Goings- 1(0)



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Green Bay Packers:
This was a game where Brett Favre really could have used Javon Walker. Favre’s throws were anything but careful, and 4 of his 5 INTs were passes that the Bengals DBs made better plays on the ball than the Packers’ receivers. Lots of miscommunication out there and not a lot of determination on Green Bay’s part.

The Packers have an underrated defense. They are well-coached and they stop the run better than expected.

I was anxious to see Samkon Gado run, and he did once for 8 yards. Early comparisons to Willie Parker look to be close. Gado is fast, and he has a good, powerful, and low base.

Bubba Franks is a player you might be able to get cheap (or free) right now. Considering there are very few players on this team that Favre has played with, I expect Franks to have a busy second half to the season.

The play to end this game (Favre’s fake spike gallop) is probably one of the ugliest plays to occur in football this year.
TARGETS(catches):
Chatman- 11(8)
Franks- 10(7)
Driver- 9(5)
Lee- 4(3)
Fisher- 4(2)
Henderson- 1(1)

Cincinnati Bengals:
It looked like the Packers in this game borrowed a lot from what the Steelers did on Monday night; bringing pressure by overloading one side and playing a two deep shell behind.

Cincinnati did a poor job at finishing drives, and with Green Bay not allowing them any big plays, the Bengals offense was only able to put together two good drives all game. Their execution is lacking right now, as teams have adjusted a bit to what the Bengals are doing on offense.

Chris Perry’s chances continue to rise.
TARGETS(catches):
CJ- 13(5)
Perry-7(6)
TJ- 6(5)
Henry- 4(2)
Walter- 1(1)
Schobel- 1(1)
RJ- 1(1)
JJ- 1(1)



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Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
You can’t really ask more of your defense than what they got, but still the Bucs couldn’t pull out a victory against SF. Coming in with a record of 5-1 against teams who were a combined 13-23, this game really proved just how fragile the Bucs’ success is.

Third downs have been one of Tampa’s top strengths this season, but with Simms at QB and without any production from the running game, Tampa Bay wen 3 of 14 on third downs. Starting a game on the road is just a very difficult thing for a young quarterback to do.

I can’t believe that with an extra week to prepare, Coach Gruden would hand Chris Simms the same offense to run. But that’s what seems to have happened here. There didn’t appear to be many half-field reads, or designed rollouts (ala Ben Burger, 2004) to slow things down for Simms. And in turn the Bucs were as undisciplined as ever, racking up 8 penalties for the game and also forgetting to tackle Kevan Barlow on the second to last play of the first half (leading to a Nedney field goal).
TARGETS(catches):
Galloway- 13(8)
Clayton- 7(4)
Smith- 3(2)
Alstott- 3(3)
Hillard- 2(1)
Pittman- 2(1)
Williams- 2(1)
Sheppard- 1(1)

San Francisco 49ers:
Mike Nolan won this game for the Niners. He and his staff outcoached Tampa Bay by such a wide margin, the 49ers actually won. Were it not for a great individual play by Joey Galloway, Tampa probably gets blown out 15-3 in this game. San Fran gave up zero turnovers, they ran the ball 39 times for 158 yards, and quite simply they made plays when they needed to. This Cody Pickett is an interesting player, but he’s not really a legitimate quarterback yet. And he’s probably starting this week.
TARGETS(catches):
Lloyd- 6(2)
Morton- 3(1)
Barlow- 3(2)
Jackson- 2(1)
Smith- 2(0)
Bajema- 1(1)
Gore- 1(1)
Beasley- 1(0)

Wednesday Football

Wednesday, October 26th, 2005

Watching a lot of hockey and game four of the series tonight, so only two games to add this evening:

Buffalo Bills
Here’s what the Bills have done on their opening drives this season:
10 plays, 65 yards, FG
3 plays, 5 yards, punt
13 plays, 50 yards, FG
10 plays, 75 yards, TD
8 plays, 67 yards, TD
10 plays, 60 yards, TD
14 plays, 77 yards, TD

Okay, so Buffalo has scored 112 total points this year, 34 of them (30%) have come on their opening drives. An interesting stat, and one that probably means that the Bills offense is a well prepared group that doesn’t execute as well as they are coached to.

Buffalo’s coaches did made a key mistake in this game, and one that too many teams still do too often. Down by 14 with plenty of time left in the third quarter, the Bills came out trying to throw the ball on every down and they ended up falling further into a hole. Why do teams panic so much with their play calling when there is so much time left?

I remember the playoff game that Kelly Holcomb played against Pittsburgh a couple of years ago. He was more of a gunslinger back then, but with the Bills now, it’s like they’ve asked him to be just a game manager and it’s not suiting him.
TARGETS(catches):
Moulds- 6(4)
Evans- 5(3)
Reed- 4(4)
campbell- 3(2)
McGahee- 3(3)
Smith- 2(1)
Williams- 1(1)
Shelton- 1(1)

Oakland Raiders
Having an injured Randy Moss may be the best thing to happen to this offense all year. Turner used to be the kind of coach that would run his RB into the ground, but Jordan hasn’t been getting consistent carries this season. Hopefully, they’ve realized that Lamont is a 25-30 carry guy who can also carry a team.

It looked like Moss was used mostly near the 30 yard line and in- much like how he was played last year when he had that ankle problem.

To start this game, the Raiders defensive line went back to standing straight up on the snap of the ball. They certainly do take a lot of plays off. And they definitely took the whole first series off. Oakland did have a nice goalline stand halfway through the second quarter, but I attribute that more on the Bills calling two awful goalline plays on thrid and fourth down. They seem to be able to play good D when they want to, but now that they’ve lost SS Gibson and FS/CB Woodson, their young secondary will surely be tested. Oakland does not have a good pass rush to help either.
TARGETS(catches):
Gabriel- 7(5)
Moss- 6(3)
Porter- 6(4)
Jordan- 4(4)
Foschi- 2(2)
Whitted- 1(0)
Crockett- 1(1)



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Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings’ offense was so bad in the first half, the best play they ran was the hail mary on the last play. The only thing they are doing well right now is completing the short stuff, but they’re not doing nearly enough of that. The running game is going well enough to keep them balanced, if they had a passing attack. The Vikings just have to learn to be more patient and finish their drives for touchdowns. It looks like Troy Williamson is getting to do more on offense and he’s doing a great job at returning kicks.

It’s almost like Michael Bennett has a polar force attracting him consistently into the nearest defensive lineman.

Minnesota’s defense is finally improving. They came out fired up after halftime and held GB to just 3 points. Pat Williams was a force for all 60 minutes.
TARGETS(catches):
Wiggins- 7(6)
Moore- 6(4)
MRobinson- 5(3)
Taylor- 3(3)
Burleson- 3(3)
Williamson- 2(1)
KRobinson- 2(2)
Kleinsasser- 2(1)

Green Bay Packers
This team had just no rhythm in the second half. Losing Green and Ferguson definitely hurt them. But they did put something together to tie the game 20-20 inside two minutes. Still, down to their third RB and fourth WR, things are not getting any better in Green Bay.

Robert Ferguson’s injury was a turf casualty. This new rubber stuff still doesn’t give enough and Ferguson hyperextended his knee by just landing on his left leg while it was extended.

I wouldn’t expect much from Tony Fisher. Antonio Chatman, however, will benefit from the increase in playing time.
TARGETS(catches):
Driver- 11(8)
Chatman- 7(5)
Martin- 3(2)
Franks- 3(3)
Lee- 3(3)
Green- 3(2)
Ferguson- 2(2)
Henderson- 2(2)
Fisher- 2(2)

Friday Football

Friday, October 14th, 2005

The picks for Week 6 are up. Thanks, as always, to Eric Mirl for gathering up all 34 of us. The Beach is back in second place, after a 9-5 week 5. I’d also like to point out that I’m picking Houston to win on Sunday night in Seattle. It’s crazy, and it’s probably a loser, but it’s a statement pick. If you’re still in a survivor pool, go with someone other than Seattle this week. I just have a feeling the Texans are going to give the Seahawks a game here. I am, however, the only one on the list to take Houston and in fact I’m going against 16 best bets. Sounds like a winner to me.

Miami Dolphins
Ronnie Brown continues to improve. He’s running with a good burst and on one particular play in the second quarter he laid a great pass block on a Bills’ DT who came in free off the snap. That play allowed Ferrotte to stay in the pocket long enough to hit Chris Chambers down the sideline for a nice gain. And on the Dolphins first TD drive, Brown had a really sharp looking 28 yard run that got Miami down to the two. Who knows what the plans are with Ricky back, but Ronnie Brown is just starting to get it and it would be nice to see what he can do. Still you’ve got to do the same for Ricky. Though situation.

Gus Ferrotte had two INTs in the first half that came in Bills territory; one of which was picked in the end zone.

The Bills played okay in this one, but Miami just killed themselves for three quarters with penalties and turnovers.

On the final Miami drive, down 14-20, the Dolphins were moving the ball well. Buffalo kept blitzing and the Dolphins just took the easy throws and executed all the way down the field until Brown fumbled on the Buffalo 15. They could have easily won this game on that drive.
TARGETS(catches):
Chambers- 9(4)
Brown- 7(6)
Booker- 5(3)
Welker- 3(2)
Diamond- 2(1)
Evans- 2(2)
McMichael- 1(1)
Heller- 1(1)
Morris- 1(1)

Buffalo Bills
Kelly Holcomb must have drawn the Dolphins off-sides about four times in the game’s first twenty minutes. That’s already something you can point to and say that Losman would have not done this season.

Sam Adams received a red zone target on the first drive and it took a pass interference penalty to keep him from scoring on the play.

Lee Evans is immediately worth a pickup now that Holcomb is playing QB. Evans will end up being a top tier WR sometime over the next two/three years. He’s not as shifty as someone like Steve Smith, but Evans has that rare top end speed and understanding of the position combination.

A couple games ago, McGahee was criticized by his head coach for his passive running style. Willis is doing a better job at hitting the hole now but he’s still not making things happen on his own as much as one would like to see out of a #1 back. And Shaud Williams has been subing for McGahee on passing downs quite frequently of late.

The Dolphins were 5 for 6 in stopping the Bills from scoring from the one yard line. So the third time Buffalo got down there, they put the ball into the end zone by throwing it.
TARGETS(catches):
Moulds- 9(7)
Evans- 3(3)
Campbell- 3(3)
McGahee- 3(2)
Shelton- 3 (2)
Reed- 2(2)
Williams- 2(1)

—
Carolina Panthers
Like I haven’t told you Steve Smith is good. Last year for the Panthers, Mushin Muhammad caught 93 balls for 1405 yards on 159 targets. Well, Smith is on pace right now for 105 catches, 1513 yards and 160 targets.
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 12(8)
Magnum- 3(3)
Proehl- 3(1)
Gardner- 3(3)
Colbert- 2(0)
Foster- 2(2)
Gaines- 1(1)
Hoover- 1(0)
Goings- 1(0)

Arizona Cardinals
The roles of Marcell Shipp and J.J. Arrington looked more defined in this game. Shipp was getting carries as the team’s #1 back and the Cards were using Arrington more as a Brian Westbrook-like tweener. Arrington looked healthy and very comfortable when doing the things he’s used to doing. I still think Shipp is and should be this team’s first option, but it’s good to know that Arrington is improving on his terrible start to the season. Regardless, this team still can’t run the ball.

Fitzgerald and Boldin were making plays all over the place. That’s one thing Josh McCown allows his receivers to do. McCown will makes his share of errors, but he trusts his receivers and gives them a chance to make plays. Kurt Warner just held on to the ball way too much for this team. Arizona has two of the best receivers in the league and McCown is giving them a chance to make plays. Just think about that pass he threw to Nate Poole to end the Vikings’ 2003 season. Take a look at the target stats below!

Key play of the game: 13:21 left in the second quarter, the Panthers have 3rd and 10 from their own 20. The Cards show only three down linemen, dropping 8, and they end up forcing an incompletion. But Bertrand Berry jumped off-sides giving Carolina a free play, which they convert on a much easier 3rd and 5. The very next play, Steve Smith catches a pass 1 yard behind the line of scrimmage and beats rookie corner Eric Green for a 65 yard touchdown. You just can’t give good teams cheap scores like this.
TARGETS(catches):
Boldin- 17(10)
Fitzgerald- 16(9)
Ayanbadejo- 4(4)
Shipp- 3(2)
Arrington- 2(1)
Johnson- 2(2)
Lee- 1(1)
Bergen- 1(0)

—
Denver Broncos
The Broncos never trailed in this game, and that’s the recipe for success with this team. For the rest of the year, I’ll probably be refering to my preseason write up on Denver and Jake Plummer. Basically, if you put Jake in a shootout, you’re probably going to lose. And this week’s game versus NE looks like it’s going to be a shootout.

I saw a stat this week in the print edition of Pro Football Weekly that said that the Broncos are 9-1 when Plummer throws for less than 200 yards. Weird. But I completely understand it.

Ashley Lelie finally scored on that end zone fade they’ve been working on this year.
TARGETS(catches):
Lelie- 7(1)
Smith- 6(2)
Adams- 3(2)
Johnson- 3(1)
Putzier- 2(1)
Alexander- 2(0)
Anderson- 2(2)
Bell- 1(1)

Washington Redskins
I really feel bad for Clinton Portis. I don’t know if it is as easy as the Redskins changing their blocking schemes, but on the few plays I saw Portis get a chance to run behind a line that zone blocks straight ahead, he looks like a 1600 yard runner. But when he has to wait for a guard and/or a fullback, well Washington might as well have Betts in there.

It was nice to see David Patten play his first productive game of the season.
TARGETS(catches):
Moss- 13(8)
Cooley- 12(8)
Patten- 11(7)
Thrash- 3(1)
Portis- 3(2)
Betts- 3(2)
Royal- 2(1)
Sellers- 1(1)

—
Cincinnati Bengals
Perhaps Chad Johnson was crying because he missed his friend, T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 8(5)
Walter- 6(3)
Henry- 5(3)
Schobel- 4(3)
Washington- 3(2)
Perry- 2(2)
RJohnson- 2(2)
JJohnson- 2(1)
Kelly- 1(1)

Jacksonville Jaguars
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 8(3)
Williams- 5(2)
MJones- 3(0) Wrighster- 3(2) GJones- 2(0) Wilford- 1(1) Brady- 1(1) Pearman- 1(1)

—
New Orleans Saints:
TARGETS(catches):
Hakim- 11(5)
Conwell- 6((3)
Stallworth- 5(1)
Henderson- 3(0)
McAllister- 3(3)
Hilton- 3(1)
Smith- 1(1)

Green Bay Packers:
TARGETS(catches):
Driver- 7(5)
Fisher- 7(6)
Ferguson- 4(3)
Martin- 4(2)
Chatman- 2(0)
Henderson- 1(1)
Lee- 1(1)
Davenport- 1(1)
Leach- 1(1)

Wednesday Football

Wednesday, September 28th, 2005

It works better for me to do the Targets by game, as I’m now able to watch every play via Directv’s Short Cuts.

CAR- I talked last week about how Steve Smith wasn’t the only receiver getting chances. Well, in week three, he was. Smith took in 15 targets and caught 11 of them for 170 yards and three scores. Two of those touchdowns came inside the five yard line, and the other came on a skinny post, with Smith showing that he’s a top talent. Incidently, as if we needed more proof that Jake Delhomme has complete confidence in his top receiver, Smith’s first touchdown came on an out route that wasn’t particularly open. Kerry Colbert once again took the goose egg on catches, and the four balls he did have thrown his way were close to meaningless. And even though he played out of the slot for most of the game, Ricky Proehl looked like he was getting more looks than any receiver not named Smith. I only saw Rod Gardener on the field once, although I wasn’t really ever looking for him. Inside the red zone, this is still Stephen Davis’ team. He got three more RZ chances, giving him 10 on the year.

MIA- Even though Chris Chambers is currently on pace for just 821 yards after three games, I really think he’s going to have a fine season. He’s been the target leader among the Miami WRs in every game so far and has 32 total targets on the year. With only 14 catches, the chances are there for him to improve his production. Chambers’ 42 yard, one-handed touchdown catch made all the highlight reels. Marty Booker is still the #2 WR, and he picked up 6 more targets. But I’d say that Randy McMichael is the guy that Gus Ferrotte looks to after Chambers. McMichael only had one catch on 5 targets, but it was good for a score.

—
CIN- Chris Henry is proving that he was more than worth the third round pick Cincinnati used on him. For the second week in a row, Henry caught 4 passes on 4 targets but this time out, he added a nice 38 yard touchdown catch. Henry is still the third option on this team, but he’s clearly surpassed Kelley Washington on the depth chart and was a big reason the Bengals could let Peter Warrick go. CJ and TJ each picked up 5 targets, while Chris Perry had 4 and now has 14 on the season.

CHI- Even though the Bears got blown out, they were able to move the ball a little bit against Cincinnati. And playing from behind early, Orton was forced to throw more often than he has in either of his other two games. To the Bears credit, however, they did not give up on the ground game even when down by two scores. For the third week in a row, Muhsin Muhammed was the leading target (12). Rookie Mark Bradley had a second best 8 targets. He’s a great run after the catch guy that should get more looks as he grows accustomed to the NFL. Bobby Wade picked up 4 catches on 7 targets, playing as the team’s #2 for much of the game.

—
NYJ- They’re obviously in trouble and should be on the phone offering Tennessee anything they want for Billy Volek. Chris Baker is still looking good as the #1 TE. He went 3 for 3, including a nice little mini-screen pass that went for 30 yards. Justin McCareins pulled in only 1 of the 7 passes thrown to him. Some were drops over the middle but there were a few poorly thrown balls in there as well. He really isn’t the solid #2 receiver the Jets thought they were getting last year. Laveraneus Coles picked up just 17 yards on 4 catches and 6 targets. He was badly underthrown on a couple of occasions. Starting Brooks Bollinger isn’t really the worse thing that could happen to this team. He’s a third year guy now and Pennington was really limiting what they could execute on the field. If Bollinger can take control of the offense, he can be a decent game manager and still give this team a chance. If I were the Jets, I’d be more concerned with the way their defense has looked soft at the most inappropriate times.

JAX- The Jags are doing a lot to get the ball in Matt Jones’ hands. He led the team with 7 targets against the Jets, but Jones is still not yet a reliable receiver over the middle. Ernest Wilford is still making the most of limited opportunities. He caught two balls on 3 targets and is 4/6 on the year. Leftwich likes to go to the 6-4 receiver in tough situations. Wilford is very reliable over the middle and can be counted to to make every attempt to get the ball into his hands. Jimmy Smith was practically nonexistent for all of the game until he scored in OT to win it. Smith ended with 2 catches on 4 targets. Alvin Pearman is doing an ok job as a punt returner. He’s good at keeping his shoulders square and upfield, no matter which direction he’s going. Pearman has also looked very powerful and very elusive running the ball in limited time on offense. He’s clearly the guy the Jags will go to if Taylor misses time.

Jacksonville is going to finish around 12-4 this year. We know their defense is good, and the offense under new coordinator Carl Smith has proven it can come up with a big play when needed. But the Jags special teams are terrific. Their kickoffs go for touchbacks. Their punt are well covered, but they do need to figure out who can return kickoffs now that they’ve released Chad Owens.

—
TB- I’ll keep talking about how Carnell Williams is being overused until he’s on the IR or sees his work load descreased. It’s amazing to me that Jon Gruden would let Thomas Jones go in part because he didn’t fit into the offensive scheme, and then go and change the identity of the team after drafting Williams. Anyhow, after a quiet week 2, Joey Galloway picked up 8 more targets. He caught 5 of them 53 yards and two scores, both inside the twenty. Michael Clayton took in 7 targets, and is as steady as they come (8 last week, 7 before that). Williams took 6 rushing chances inside the red zone.

GB- I should probably include the Bucs’ DBs on this list as well. Twenty percent of Favre’s compeltions went to Tampa’s secondary. Robert Ferguson is stepping up as the team’s #2 threat. He went 4 for 8 with 68 yards and a score against the slow footed Juran Bolden. The Packers only held the ball for 3:29 in the fourth quarter, so that’s part of the reason Favre only threw 24 passes while trailing for most of the game. Donald Driver was held to just 2 catches on 4 targets.

Wednesday Football

Thursday, September 22nd, 2005

Well, the football guys locked the door to the targets stats they left open last week. Here’s the NFC notes:

ARZ- The Cards really struggled against a Rams defense they should have performed better against. Arizona failed to score a touchdown on four different drives inside the 30. Kurt Warner, despite throwing for 327 yards, had a tough time finding targets when it mattered most. After getting 15 throws in week one, Larry Fitzgerald only got 5 against the Rams. Anquan Boldin led the team with 9 in week two, including three looks inside the red zone. Poor Bryan Johnson has just 4 catches on 18 targets through two weeks.

Marcel Shipp had a solid game, but he was underused with just 12 carries. He did catch five of the six passes thrown his way. With J.J. Arrington struggling (he’s not a good fit for this offense), I’ve expected Shipp to take over the running duties for the Cardinals.

And just on a side note, there’s not a better home field kicker in the NFL right now than Neil Rackers.

ATL- Rising star Michael Jenkins had another strong game, he led the Falcons with 6 targets. But inside the twenty, Vick looked to Brian Finneran three times. Since there’s a good chance that Matt Schaub is starting this weekend against Buffalo, I expect Finneran to have another good week- especially if he gets matched up against the 5′9 Terrance McGee near the goalline.

CHI- Mushin Muhammad is going to led the way as long as he’s healthy, and the former Panther got 9 passes thrown to him on Sunday. But inside the 20, with a rookie QB, the Bears are a running team. On the season, Thomas Jones has 6 redzone carries and Cedric Benson has 1, while Orton has thrown just three passes (all against the Redskins).

DAL- Jason Witten picked up 6 targets on Monday night after just getting one pass thrown his way in week one. Terry Glenn was the Cowboys’ leader against Washington, with 9 targets, 6 catches, 157 yards (long of 70) and a score.

DET- Joey Harrington is still staring down his receivers and against the Bears, he focused on Roy Williams 13 times. Kevin Johnson tied Charles Rogers for second on the team with 9, and it looks like Harrington has a lot of confidence in Johnson- leaving rookie Mike Williams with very little playing time. Detroit threw the ball way to much against Chicago. What success they had last year, they did by running Kevin Jones 25-30 times and not the 8 he got in Chicago.

GB- With Javon Walker out, Terrance Murphy picked up 6 targets. Donald Driver was the team leader for the second week in a row, this time with 8. Also for the second week in a row, Favre threw to his backs heavily, giving them 13 passes (17 last week). Favre has thrown 44 passes in each of the first two games of the season. It’s going to be a long year. The Packers host 2-0 Tampa Bay this week.

MIN- Daunte Culpepper showed me a side of him I haven’t seen in years, as he threw 5 interceptions to the Bengals. Most of those came late in the game, and after they got down 14-0 early, I can only describe Culpepper as being on Tilt. I don’t know if he’s frustrated with the playcalling, but I sure would be. Losing Randy Moss didn’t have to be a big deal if the Vikings took the off-season to refocus their strategy towards the current strengths of the roster. That seems to have not happened. It’s like they’re still running the same exact offensive system.

Up until the very end of the third quarter, Minnesota’s plays were as unimaginative as they were unproductive. There were few or no slants, hitches, screens, draws, and traps called. Instead, it looked like: run, go deep, go deep, punt. But then towards the fourth quarter, things started to open up. The Vikings started throwing those shorter slants and quick hitches. They mixed in a few runs on pass looks, and they looked to exploit the first 15 yards from scrimmage more than the second. At home against the Saints this week, I expect this offense to finally produce.

That said, I just don’t see how Michael Bennett can be this team’s starting running back. He doesn’t catch the ball exceptionally well. He doesn’t run with exceptional power. He doesn’t really do anything really well except run fast. Bennett did start the Bengals game with a couple of great runs on the edge, but then he fumbled going up the middle and then fumbled again a few minutes later twice and it was all over from there for him and for Minnesota.

And I don’t know if Mewelde Moore is the answer for this season either. The Vikings really need more of a playmaker at that position They need someone like Lamont Jordan. So keep an eye on Ciatrick Fason.

Travis Taylor took in 12 targets against the Bengals, and he caught 7 of them. With Minnesota down 27-0 at halftime, rookie Troy Williamson got some action in the second half. He took in 2 passes on 4 targets.

NO- For as long Aaron Brooks in the Saints’ QB, Joe Horn is as steady a target as they come. After getting 13 targets on Monday night, Horn has had one game since the start of 2004 with fewer than 7 passes thrown his way. I’m also impressed with Donte Stallworth this year. He pulled in 8 passes on 12 targets against the Giants. For the year, Donte has 12 catched on 17 throws. For the second straight week, Ernie Conwell had two red zone targets and he has 10 anywhere targets on the season. Conwell is a big part of this offense.

NYG- Eli seems to really enjoy throwing to the 6′5 Plaxico Burress. After giving him 11 passes in week one, Manning threw 10 more Burress’ way on Monday night. But Burress has just 10 catches on those 21 targets so far this season. Jeremy Shockey went 5 for 6 and is now 7 for 8 on the year.

PHI- After relying to much on TO and BW last week (29 of McNabb’s 45 passes), with a big lead the Eagles were able to spread it around against the 49ers. Greg Lewis was clearly the #2 WR on Sunday, getting 7 targets over the entire game. Rookie Reggie Brown picked up 3, all in the second half. TO had 7, but the team leader LJ Smith broke out with 9 catches on 9 targets, 119 yards and a touchdown. Smith is still the only viable TE on this team and this kind of game won’t be out of the ordinary for the tight end. The Eagles’ offensive line did a real nice job protecting McNabb in the face of a very good SF pass rush.

SEA- Bobby Engram is still going strong, with 8 more targets on Sunday. Darrell Jackson was the team leader with 11, but Jerramy Stevens was again well featured, with 5 targets.

SF- Not much doing for the 49ers against Philly, but Arnez Battle is indeed the best receiver on this team. With 6 targets last week and 7 more this past Sunday, Battle has 9 catches on the year for 103 yards. Alex Smith did come in and run three plays before going off for a punt.

STL- Marc Bulger only had to throw 29 times against the Cardinals. Holt and Bruce are still the top pair, with Holt getting 7 targets and Bruce 8. Kevin Curtis has an ankle injury, and he was limited against Arizona, but he still got 4 passes. The Rams should look to strike through the air this week, as they host the Titans.

TB- With an early lead at home, the Bucs didn’t have to throw much. Joey Galloway’s numbers fell hard, with just 2 targets. Michael Clayton got 8, however, and with the 7 he got in week one, he’s Griese’s top threat.

WAS- Of course Santana Moss caught the two big ones, but he also pulled in three other of the 7 total passes thrown his way against Dallas. David Patten got 5 targets, but the production just hasn’t been there so far. There were no trips to the red zone this week, but Robert Royal still got 4 passes thrown to him and Chris Cooley got 3.

AFC and Carolina tomorrow.