Archive for the ‘Buffalo’ Category

Buffalo’s running back by committee

We think it’s in everybody’s best interest that we do have more than one back that carries the load,” said Jauron back in March. “If you do that and you have that kind of depth, you can rotate them, you can keep them fresh and they don’t get as beat up. You can go with a guy that is a little bit hotter on a given day and sometimes it’s a different guy. There’s no reason why it shouldn’t work that way, because every day is not your best day.”

2006 | Week 2 - Buffalo Bills

16-6 at MIA

Targets stats only this week.

CATCHES / TARGETS:
Evans - 2/6
Reed - 4/4
Parrish - 1/4
Price - 2/3
McGahee - 1/1
Royal - 1/1
Thomas - 0/1

2006 | Week 1 - Buffalo Bills

17-19 at NE

Targets/Catches:
Evans - 2/5
Reed - 3/3
Price - 3/3
McGahee - 2/2
Parrish - 2/3
Thomas - 2/2
Royal - 1/2
Shelton - 0/2

2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Buffalo Bills

INDEX

Dick Jauron - Head Coach, 1st season as HC with BUF
Steve Fairchild - Offensive Coordinator, 1st season as OC with BUF

These Bills are going to be bad; they just have no NFL ready quarterback. Unfortunately, they do have one of the best up and coming WRs in Lee Evans and one of the best RB in the league in Willis McGahee. I think if Losman can show maturity this year, next season is going to be a big one for Evans. But as much as I like the former Badger, I wouldn’t touch him this season. McGahee, on the other hand, may be worth an early look.

Here’s a table of the production over the last two seasons of the top running backs on teams that finished the season under .500.



YEAR	TEAM	W	L	ATT	YARDS	YPC	TD
2005	NO	3	13	166	659	3.8	0
	CLE	6	10	309	1232	4.0	2
	BAL	6	10	269	906	3.4	3
	TEN	4	12	224	851	3.8	5
	HOU	2	14	230	976	4.2	2
	DET	5	11	186	664	3.6	5
	GB	4	12	143	582	4.1	6
	BUF	5	11	325	1247	3.8	5
	NJJ	4	12	220	775	3.3	5
	PHI	6	10	156	617	4.0	3
	OAK	4	12	272	1025	3.8	9
	STL	6	10	254	1046	4.1	8
	ARZ	5	11	157	451	2.9	0
	SF	4	12	127	608	4.8	3
2004	CLE	4	12	199	744	3.7	2
	CAR	7	9	217	821	3.8	6
	TB	5	11	219	926	4.2	7
	HOU	7	9	302	1188	3.9	13
	TEN	5	11	220	1067	4.8	6
	DET	6	10	241	1133	4.7	5
	CHI	5	11	240	948	4.0	7
	MIA	4	12	132	523	4.0	6
	DAL	6	10	197	819	4.2	7
	NYG	6	10	322	1518	4.7	13
	WAS	6	10	343	1315	3.8	5
	KC	7	9	196	892	4.6	14
	OAK	5	11	112	425	3.8	3
	ARZ	6	10	267	937	3.5	9
	SF	2	14	244	822	3.4	7


Out of these 29 teams, 12 featured a running back who carried the ball 240 times or more. The average finish for those 11 running backs was: 282 - 1109 - 3.9 - 7. Considering McGahee’s talent, I’d bump those numbers up about 10%, giving him 310 carries, 1220 yards, and almost 8 touchdowns. So it is possible for good backs on bad teams to have successful fantasy seasons. Don’t count on them for 10 touchdowns, but the yards will be there and from what McGahee has shown early this preseason, he’s running lean, fast, and hard. I’d say those projections are solid, ground floor type numbers. He went 325 - 1247 - 5 last season under Mike Mularkey. Now in his fourth NFL season (3rd as starter), and another year removed from his knee injury, 1400 yards is possible.

Tempering those lofty numbers, however, should be Dick Jauron’s coaching record. He’s got a career 36-49 (.423) record, and his offenses have ranked near the bottom of the league in each season. He’s a former defensive back who been coaching on the defensive side of the ball for most of his post-playing career.

OC Steve Fairchild returns to Buffalo after spending his last three years in St Louis as the Rams OC and QB coach. He’s a former college quarterback and actually played under Mike Martz at a community college program. Fairchild has coached on the offensive side of the ball on and off since 1982. He’s got 5 years of experience in the NFL and started out in the league as the Bills RB coach from 2001-02, when Travis Henry was the featured back.

According to this interview that was given last year to the Denver Post, Fairchild seems to have more of a balanced offensive philosophy. He talks there about how the Rams offense was running without Mike Martz and Marc Bulger and there is also a mention of Fairchild’s mentor, Sonny Lubick. The Bills will have to shorten the length of the game this season to be competitive. They have a good defense, and a good back, but their offensive line fell apart in the second half of last season. Everything I see expects me to think that McGahee will get plenty of carries.

Last season preview.

Week 10 - Buffalo Bills

14-3 vs Kansas City

The Bills’ offense was all out of sorts in the first quarter. They had just 1 first down compared to the 2 Kelly Holcomb passes that were batted down at the line of scrimmage. The two positive plays they did have were called back on penalties, and the Bills held the ball for just 5 of the 15 minutes.

Then, a couple of minutes into the second quarter, there was a 4th and 1 that looked like Kelly Holcomb was supposed to run a QB sneak on, but when he took the snap, he stepped back, shuffled his feet, and then looked over his shoulder to see if there was anyone behind him to pitch the ball to. Holcomb ended up leaving the game a few plays later with concussion, but at no point in this game did he ever look like he knew what was going on. Maybe something happened in their first drive where he hit his head that I missed.

J.P. Losman came in and showed good poise; he definitely was prepared to play despite sitting on the bench since for four weeks. Many, including myself, dogged Losman early in the year for not being able to accurately throw a deep pass, but he was able to do that in this game. Losman’s second TD throw to Lee Evans was as perfect a pass as you can get. But other than that, this is still the same quarterback who started the season. He’s still late on his reads and late on his throws, relying too much on his athletic ability to bail him out. And if he continues to start games for the Bills, I’d continue to be concerned about his ability to play on the road.

Lee Evans is a just fantastic deep receiver, but he’s still not much other than that. If he can continue to work on his game, he’s got the ability to be a Steve Smith type. The natural instincts and the natural speed are there.

It’s officially that time of year in Buffalo where the wind and cold are going to be playing a role in football games (kickers were 1/5 in FG attempts).

TARGETS(catches):
Moulds- 8(5)
Campbell- 5(4)
Reed- 4(1)
Evans- 3(3)
McGahee- 1(0)

Wednesday Football

Watching a lot of hockey and game four of the series tonight, so only two games to add this evening:

Buffalo Bills
Here’s what the Bills have done on their opening drives this season:
10 plays, 65 yards, FG
3 plays, 5 yards, punt
13 plays, 50 yards, FG
10 plays, 75 yards, TD
8 plays, 67 yards, TD
10 plays, 60 yards, TD
14 plays, 77 yards, TD

Okay, so Buffalo has scored 112 total points this year, 34 of them (30%) have come on their opening drives. An interesting stat, and one that probably means that the Bills offense is a well prepared group that doesn’t execute as well as they are coached to.

Buffalo’s coaches did made a key mistake in this game, and one that too many teams still do too often. Down by 14 with plenty of time left in the third quarter, the Bills came out trying to throw the ball on every down and they ended up falling further into a hole. Why do teams panic so much with their play calling when there is so much time left?

I remember the playoff game that Kelly Holcomb played against Pittsburgh a couple of years ago. He was more of a gunslinger back then, but with the Bills now, it’s like they’ve asked him to be just a game manager and it’s not suiting him.
TARGETS(catches):
Moulds- 6(4)
Evans- 5(3)
Reed- 4(4)
campbell- 3(2)
McGahee- 3(3)
Smith- 2(1)
Williams- 1(1)
Shelton- 1(1)

Oakland Raiders
Having an injured Randy Moss may be the best thing to happen to this offense all year. Turner used to be the kind of coach that would run his RB into the ground, but Jordan hasn’t been getting consistent carries this season. Hopefully, they’ve realized that Lamont is a 25-30 carry guy who can also carry a team.

It looked like Moss was used mostly near the 30 yard line and in- much like how he was played last year when he had that ankle problem.

To start this game, the Raiders defensive line went back to standing straight up on the snap of the ball. They certainly do take a lot of plays off. And they definitely took the whole first series off. Oakland did have a nice goalline stand halfway through the second quarter, but I attribute that more on the Bills calling two awful goalline plays on thrid and fourth down. They seem to be able to play good D when they want to, but now that they’ve lost SS Gibson and FS/CB Woodson, their young secondary will surely be tested. Oakland does not have a good pass rush to help either.
TARGETS(catches):
Gabriel- 7(5)
Moss- 6(3)
Porter- 6(4)
Jordan- 4(4)
Foschi- 2(2)
Whitted- 1(0)
Crockett- 1(1)



---

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings’ offense was so bad in the first half, the best play they ran was the hail mary on the last play. The only thing they are doing well right now is completing the short stuff, but they’re not doing nearly enough of that. The running game is going well enough to keep them balanced, if they had a passing attack. The Vikings just have to learn to be more patient and finish their drives for touchdowns. It looks like Troy Williamson is getting to do more on offense and he’s doing a great job at returning kicks.

It’s almost like Michael Bennett has a polar force attracting him consistently into the nearest defensive lineman.

Minnesota’s defense is finally improving. They came out fired up after halftime and held GB to just 3 points. Pat Williams was a force for all 60 minutes.
TARGETS(catches):
Wiggins- 7(6)
Moore- 6(4)
MRobinson- 5(3)
Taylor- 3(3)
Burleson- 3(3)
Williamson- 2(1)
KRobinson- 2(2)
Kleinsasser- 2(1)

Green Bay Packers
This team had just no rhythm in the second half. Losing Green and Ferguson definitely hurt them. But they did put something together to tie the game 20-20 inside two minutes. Still, down to their third RB and fourth WR, things are not getting any better in Green Bay.

Robert Ferguson’s injury was a turf casualty. This new rubber stuff still doesn’t give enough and Ferguson hyperextended his knee by just landing on his left leg while it was extended.

I wouldn’t expect much from Tony Fisher. Antonio Chatman, however, will benefit from the increase in playing time.
TARGETS(catches):
Driver- 11(8)
Chatman- 7(5)
Martin- 3(2)
Franks- 3(3)
Lee- 3(3)
Green- 3(2)
Ferguson- 2(2)
Henderson- 2(2)
Fisher- 2(2)

Saturday Football

Filling out the rest of week six, below. I’m borrowing today’s NCAA picks from a fellow named Keg. He’s doing much better than my 23-30 this season. And if he finishes 0-4 today, I’ll kindly apologize for passing on my curse to him and I’ll pledge never do it again.



New York Jets TARGETS(catches): McCareins- 11(5) Coles- 7(4) Martin- 2(2) Chrebet- 1(1) Baker- 1(0) Dreesen- 1(0) Buffalo Bills: TARGETS(catches): Moulds- 9(7) Evans- 6(3) McGahee- 4(3) Campbell- 3(2) Reed- 1(1) Smith- 1(1) Peters- 1(1)

St Louis Rams: TARGETS(catches): Holt- 8(6) Jackson- 6(5) Curtis- 5(3) Faulk- 4(4) Looker- 2(2) Manumaluena- 2(1) Cleeland- (2) Indianapolis Colts: TARGETS(catches): Wayne- 10(7) Harrison- 7(4) Stokely- 5(4) Clark- 4(3) James- 4(3) Rhodes- 2(1)

New England Patriots: TARGETS(catches): Givens- 13(7) Branch- 12(7) Pass- 7(6) Dwight- 5(1) Watson- 4(1) Johnson- 1(0) Zereoue- 1(1) Graham- ??? Denver Broncos: TARGETS(catches): Smith- 7(6) Lelie- 4(3) Putzier- 4(3) Bell- 4(3) Johnson- 2(1) Adams- 1(0) Alexander- 1(1)

Friday Football

The picks for Week 6 are up. Thanks, as always, to Eric Mirl for gathering up all 34 of us. The Beach is back in second place, after a 9-5 week 5. I’d also like to point out that I’m picking Houston to win on Sunday night in Seattle. It’s crazy, and it’s probably a loser, but it’s a statement pick. If you’re still in a survivor pool, go with someone other than Seattle this week. I just have a feeling the Texans are going to give the Seahawks a game here. I am, however, the only one on the list to take Houston and in fact I’m going against 16 best bets. Sounds like a winner to me.

Miami Dolphins
Ronnie Brown continues to improve. He’s running with a good burst and on one particular play in the second quarter he laid a great pass block on a Bills’ DT who came in free off the snap. That play allowed Ferrotte to stay in the pocket long enough to hit Chris Chambers down the sideline for a nice gain. And on the Dolphins first TD drive, Brown had a really sharp looking 28 yard run that got Miami down to the two. Who knows what the plans are with Ricky back, but Ronnie Brown is just starting to get it and it would be nice to see what he can do. Still you’ve got to do the same for Ricky. Though situation.

Gus Ferrotte had two INTs in the first half that came in Bills territory; one of which was picked in the end zone.

The Bills played okay in this one, but Miami just killed themselves for three quarters with penalties and turnovers.

On the final Miami drive, down 14-20, the Dolphins were moving the ball well. Buffalo kept blitzing and the Dolphins just took the easy throws and executed all the way down the field until Brown fumbled on the Buffalo 15. They could have easily won this game on that drive.
TARGETS(catches):
Chambers- 9(4)
Brown- 7(6)
Booker- 5(3)
Welker- 3(2)
Diamond- 2(1)
Evans- 2(2)
McMichael- 1(1)
Heller- 1(1)
Morris- 1(1)

Buffalo Bills
Kelly Holcomb must have drawn the Dolphins off-sides about four times in the game’s first twenty minutes. That’s already something you can point to and say that Losman would have not done this season.

Sam Adams received a red zone target on the first drive and it took a pass interference penalty to keep him from scoring on the play.

Lee Evans is immediately worth a pickup now that Holcomb is playing QB. Evans will end up being a top tier WR sometime over the next two/three years. He’s not as shifty as someone like Steve Smith, but Evans has that rare top end speed and understanding of the position combination.

A couple games ago, McGahee was criticized by his head coach for his passive running style. Willis is doing a better job at hitting the hole now but he’s still not making things happen on his own as much as one would like to see out of a #1 back. And Shaud Williams has been subing for McGahee on passing downs quite frequently of late.

The Dolphins were 5 for 6 in stopping the Bills from scoring from the one yard line. So the third time Buffalo got down there, they put the ball into the end zone by throwing it.
TARGETS(catches):
Moulds- 9(7)
Evans- 3(3)
Campbell- 3(3)
McGahee- 3(2)
Shelton- 3 (2)
Reed- 2(2)
Williams- 2(1)

—
Carolina Panthers
Like I haven’t told you Steve Smith is good. Last year for the Panthers, Mushin Muhammad caught 93 balls for 1405 yards on 159 targets. Well, Smith is on pace right now for 105 catches, 1513 yards and 160 targets.
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 12(8)
Magnum- 3(3)
Proehl- 3(1)
Gardner- 3(3)
Colbert- 2(0)
Foster- 2(2)
Gaines- 1(1)
Hoover- 1(0)
Goings- 1(0)

Arizona Cardinals
The roles of Marcell Shipp and J.J. Arrington looked more defined in this game. Shipp was getting carries as the team’s #1 back and the Cards were using Arrington more as a Brian Westbrook-like tweener. Arrington looked healthy and very comfortable when doing the things he’s used to doing. I still think Shipp is and should be this team’s first option, but it’s good to know that Arrington is improving on his terrible start to the season. Regardless, this team still can’t run the ball.

Fitzgerald and Boldin were making plays all over the place. That’s one thing Josh McCown allows his receivers to do. McCown will makes his share of errors, but he trusts his receivers and gives them a chance to make plays. Kurt Warner just held on to the ball way too much for this team. Arizona has two of the best receivers in the league and McCown is giving them a chance to make plays. Just think about that pass he threw to Nate Poole to end the Vikings’ 2003 season. Take a look at the target stats below!

Key play of the game: 13:21 left in the second quarter, the Panthers have 3rd and 10 from their own 20. The Cards show only three down linemen, dropping 8, and they end up forcing an incompletion. But Bertrand Berry jumped off-sides giving Carolina a free play, which they convert on a much easier 3rd and 5. The very next play, Steve Smith catches a pass 1 yard behind the line of scrimmage and beats rookie corner Eric Green for a 65 yard touchdown. You just can’t give good teams cheap scores like this.
TARGETS(catches):
Boldin- 17(10)
Fitzgerald- 16(9)
Ayanbadejo- 4(4)
Shipp- 3(2)
Arrington- 2(1)
Johnson- 2(2)
Lee- 1(1)
Bergen- 1(0)

—
Denver Broncos
The Broncos never trailed in this game, and that’s the recipe for success with this team. For the rest of the year, I’ll probably be refering to my preseason write up on Denver and Jake Plummer. Basically, if you put Jake in a shootout, you’re probably going to lose. And this week’s game versus NE looks like it’s going to be a shootout.

I saw a stat this week in the print edition of Pro Football Weekly that said that the Broncos are 9-1 when Plummer throws for less than 200 yards. Weird. But I completely understand it.

Ashley Lelie finally scored on that end zone fade they’ve been working on this year.
TARGETS(catches):
Lelie- 7(1)
Smith- 6(2)
Adams- 3(2)
Johnson- 3(1)
Putzier- 2(1)
Alexander- 2(0)
Anderson- 2(2)
Bell- 1(1)

Washington Redskins
I really feel bad for Clinton Portis. I don’t know if it is as easy as the Redskins changing their blocking schemes, but on the few plays I saw Portis get a chance to run behind a line that zone blocks straight ahead, he looks like a 1600 yard runner. But when he has to wait for a guard and/or a fullback, well Washington might as well have Betts in there.

It was nice to see David Patten play his first productive game of the season.
TARGETS(catches):
Moss- 13(8)
Cooley- 12(8)
Patten- 11(7)
Thrash- 3(1)
Portis- 3(2)
Betts- 3(2)
Royal- 2(1)
Sellers- 1(1)

—
Cincinnati Bengals
Perhaps Chad Johnson was crying because he missed his friend, T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 8(5)
Walter- 6(3)
Henry- 5(3)
Schobel- 4(3)
Washington- 3(2)
Perry- 2(2)
RJohnson- 2(2)
JJohnson- 2(1)
Kelly- 1(1)

Jacksonville Jaguars
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 8(3)
Williams- 5(2)
MJones- 3(0) Wrighster- 3(2) GJones- 2(0) Wilford- 1(1) Brady- 1(1) Pearman- 1(1)

—
New Orleans Saints:
TARGETS(catches):
Hakim- 11(5)
Conwell- 6((3)
Stallworth- 5(1)
Henderson- 3(0)
McAllister- 3(3)
Hilton- 3(1)
Smith- 1(1)

Green Bay Packers:
TARGETS(catches):
Driver- 7(5)
Fisher- 7(6)
Ferguson- 4(3)
Martin- 4(2)
Chatman- 2(0)
Henderson- 1(1)
Lee- 1(1)
Davenport- 1(1)
Leach- 1(1)

Wednesday Football

A friend of the Beach, DVR, pointed me to a couple of places that offer free target stats (one and two). Thanks for that.

STL- The Rams came out throwing and never stopped. Of the 10 carries Steven Jackson did get, most were designed draws or delays, He was used, however, inside the red zone a total of 4 times and giving him 11 on the season. The Giants defense played a lot of the game with their corners 10 yards off the line and St Louis threw a lot of quick stops and slants to take advantage. New York’s secondary has a lot of injuries and they seemed resigned to give those plays to the Rams. So yes, Marc Bulger threw 62 times but in Martz’s partial defense, the Giants were really giving him 4 free yards through the air on most downs.

St Louis has the kind of offense where they are vulnerable against opposing defenses who can provide pressure on the quarterback by just rushing their front four linemen. And the Giants did a good job in this game of doing just that.

At half time, the Rams had 234 yards on offense and not a single one was gained on the ground (after accounting for yards lost by sacks). And while both the final score and the pace of the game were dominated by the Giants, St Louis really could have made this a game. Right before the half and down by 10, the Rams missed a 48 field goal. After the break, St Louis took the kickoff and drove 13 plays down to the six yard line before running some ridiculous reverse. Right there are 10 points they could have tied this game up with.

So despite throwing 62 times and only rushing 15, St Louis held the ball for 32:04 (compared to NYG’s 27:56). Yet it seemed that the more they threw, the more the Giants defense got comfortable defending against St Louis. All three of Bulger’s INTs came in the second half.

With Issac Bruce out, Dane Looker saw plenty of action as the fourth WR and played well. It was hard to tell if Kevin Curtis was the #2 WR out there or if it was Shaun McDonald. Most likely, they alternated. TARGETS(catches): Holt- 14(7), McDonald- 13(9), Looker- 11(8) ,Curtis- 7(6), Jackson- 8(5), Faulk- 5(3), Williams- 1(1), Hedgecock- 1(0), Robinson- 1(0).

NYG- I was very interested to see how Burress picked up his 10 catches and after watching the game, I was impressed. Burress was used on all kinds of patterns. He’s not just been someone Eli Manning can rely on, Burress has been a playmaker. Adam Archuleta misplayed the ball on Burress’ first touchdown, but it was Plaxico’s size that allowed him to shield off the Rams’ safety. Burress only made one catch in the second half. He was thrown to 6 times, catching one pass, having another called back on offensive interference, and then drawing defensive interference on another play. While it looked like the Rams were making an effort to contain Burress a little better in the second half, he still was made a few plays that didn’t show up in the box score. This was the second straight shootout the Giants have been in. If they ever get this defense sorted out, New York is going to make some big time noise.

Amani Toomer took in a red zone score, and Jeremy Shockey beat Archuleta in single coverage for his 31 yard TD. Burress picked up 4 RZ looks, but Barber was the team leader with 8. TARGETS(catches): Burress- 17(10), Shockey 10(4), Barber- 4(2), Toomer- 3(3), Shiancoe- 1

—
BUF- The Bills came out and put together a decent enough touchdown drive to start the game. They went 75 yards on 10 plays. McGahee ran well and Losman did his best Michael Vick impression and the Bills were up 7-0. For the rest of the game, Buffalo gained a total of 101 yards. Losman continues to look terrible. He’s showed little rhythm in making his reads, missing throws everywhere, and he runs running out of the pocket at the first sign of pressure- and sometimes even when there is no pressure.

Losman’s first INT was another case of him having just absolutely zero feel for his deep throws. Like I mentioned last week, J.P. just sort of wings it out there hoping his guy runs under it. It didn’t help that Buffalo faced third and long all game. After that opening drive, the Saints defense would put 8 in the box on first down, play base on second, and then blitz on third. McGahee had just 50 yards after the first drive, and the Saints just let Losman do the rest.

Still, down by just three, Ryan Lindell missed a 45 yard field goal with less than two minutes left in the half. The Saints took the ball and kicked a field goal on their own. And with just seconds remaining, Terrance McGee returned the kickoff 82 exciting yards all the way to the four yard line just before tripped and fell with time expired.

Kelly Holcomb came in a couple of minutes into the 4th quarter but it didn’t do anything to help the Bills. I don’t think there should be a QB controversy here. Losman hasn’t shown much, and Buffalo needs to find out if this guy is their future. Their defense is soft without Pat Williams and now Takeo Spikes and their season is over. So they might as well find out what they have with Losman. TARGETS(catches): Moulds- 6(2), Evans- 3(2), Smith- 3(0), McGahee -3(2), Shelton- 2(0), Reed- 1(1), Williams- 1(1), Campbell- 1(0), Neufield- 1(0)

NO- Aaron Brooks played a real smart game against Buffalo. He ran with the ball when it helped the team, and stayed in the pocket at times when he needed to. The Saints had zero turnovers, and Brooks was in control of the offense for the entire game. Donte Stallworth had a big game, but I don’t think he can be the team’s #1 guy for the long run. Stallworth is a perimeter guy and while he did catch a couple of balls over the middle, he was wide open for both against spread out zone coverage. Duece McAllister looked much better than he did last week, carrying the ball 27 times. He also got 9 red zone chances.

A good home crowd really helped here too. The Bills picked up multiple penalties aided on by the noise. With 11:14 left in a 7-13 game, the Saints defense stopped Buffalo on third and 1 and again on fourth and 1 at midfield. But with 5 minutes left in the 4th when the Saints had a chance to put the game away, they had to settle instead for a 20 yard field goal. The New Orleans defense played well and with McAllister had his best runs of the game on the team’s last drive. TARGETS(catches): Stallworth- 11(8), Henderson- 3(1), Conwell- 3(1), McAllister- 3(2), Karney- 1(1), Smith- 1(1), Hall- 1(1)

—
MIN- Not much to say here. Minnesota did the same thing last week but this time they were playing a much better defense. When you look at these numbers, consider that the first catch made by a WR came almost five minutes into the second half. The Vikings have a bye this week. Troy Williamson has 7 catches and 2 TDs over the last two games. TARGETS(catches): Taylor- 8(5), Moore- 8(6), Williamson- 5(4), Robinson- 4(1), Wiggins- 3(3), Kleinsasser- 2(2), Bennett- 2(2)

ATL- Up 7-0, with third down and 9 to go from the Vikings’ 25 yard line, the Falcons ran Dunn on a shotgun draw. Dunn took the exchange but then fumbled as he stiffed armed past a lineman. He had so much room around him, however, that he was able to calmly gather the football and run just enough of the nine yards he needed to get the first down. And that pretty much summed up the rest of the game Atlanta had against the Vikings. The Falcons just showed up, ran their offense and went home with a victory. This game looked like the equivalent of a starting pitcher throwing a complete game by just throwing his fastaball the entire time.

I’m sure Vick would have played more had this game been a real contest. Also, Dunn’s 36 yard touchdown run was just sick. The Vikings brought a blitz on first down into the right side of the Falcons’ offense (and the wrong side if you’re playing against Michael Vick). The play had Dunn running to the left, so already he had three Vikings beaten. He got into the second level easily and then undressed Corey Chavous with a double move 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage. Good down field blocking by his receivers allowed Dunn enough room to just squeeze into the end zone. TARGETS(catches): Crumpler- 8(3), Finneran- 5(3), White- 4(2), Jenkins- 1(1), Griffith- 1(0), Dunn- 1(1), Blakely- 1(1)

Saturday Football II

ATL- This was a sloppy game for the Falcons but they had a good game plan and did what good teams do. Brian Finneran stepped up with a huge game (relative to Atlanta receivers). He finished with 4 catches on 7 targets and made some key grabs along the way to keep drives alive. Alge Crumpler also had 7 targets, but he pulled in only 3 for 35 yards. Michael Jenkins is the #1 wideout though. He went 4 for 5 with a score. For most of the game, however, the Falcons’d ground game gashed a suddenly soft Bills defensive front. This week the Falcons host Minnesota.

BUF- The Bills opened this game with back to back deep throws down the left side; one to Eric Moulds and the other to Lee Evans. J.P. Losman wasn’t even close on either of his throws. After seeing the Bills play three games now, I don’t know what the Buffalo brass thought they had with Losman, but the second year QB is running plays that don’t really seem to be suitable to his talents. He plays a lot like Michael Vick, but with less touch than Vick on the deeper throws, and should probably be learning how to get the ball out of his hands sooner.

The Falcons spent a lot of this game with only 7 men in the box, in order to protect their banged up secondary. So Buffalo was able to run the ball a little better than one would normally expect. At the end of the third quarter, the Bills had 129 yards rushing and just 44 passing. Yet they trailed just 16-17.

The pass patterns for the Bills this year has been consistent. Moulds has gone 7-7-8 in targets. Evans, 5-5-5. And Josh Reed, 4-7-3. With the offense unable to move the ball through the air, and now with Takeo Spikes out for the year, things are certainly not looking up in upstate New York.

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OAK- The Raiders aren’t really playing bad football, they just can’t come up with any plays when they need then. They played NE tight for three quarters, were 10 yards away from beating KC, and then last week Oakland stayed with Philly all the way up to the final play. Oakland has not, however, run the ball well yet this year. And against the Eagles, they picked up just 21 yards rushing (and just 2 of their 18 first downs via the ground). Courtney Anderson score 2 TDs in week one, got zero targets last week, and then picked up 5 catches on 9 passes for 100 yards. With all these perimeter types, Anderson’s chances should continue to come. And without Ronald Curry, Jerry Porter saw a lot of throws. But he picked up just 5 catches on 11 targets. Randy Moss had 7 more targets. Tied for second on team in targets for the season is Lamont Jordan, who had 9 against the Eagles giving him 27 on the year.

PHI- The Eagles’pass blocking has been tremendous this year and they’re going to need that to continue with Donovan McNabb dealing with an abdominal tear. Greg Lewis is doing well as the team’s #2. He caught 6 passes on 9 targets for 70 yards against the Raiders. T.O. went 9 for 14, and Westbrook went 6 for 11. L.J. Smith continues to produce, catching 5 of 8. In the red zone, TO got 5 looks, Westbrook had 3, Lewis and Smith each had one. The Eagles front seven dominated the Raiders’ offensive line, and that bodes well for them with KC on the schedule next.

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TEN- The Titans are going to be trouble this year. Norm Chow is really doing some good things with this offense and Steve McNair has been sharp. Rookie Brandon Jones has played well, and against the Rams he caught 5 passes on 9 targets and a touchdown. Drew Bennett is still putting up good numbers too, he went 6 for 10. Erron Kinney is surprisingly getting more throws than Ben Troupe. In St Louis, Kinney picked up 7 catches on 7 targets while Troupe had just 3 balls go his way (but he does have two scores on the year).

STL- Issac Bruce missed the second half of this game, and ended up with just 1 target. Torry Holt led the team with 11, and Kevin Curtis stepped into Bruce’s role and picked up 5 catches on 5 passes for 56 yards and a score. Shaun McDonald, after getting 10 targets in week one, had just 2 last week and 1 against the Titans.

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DAL- One of the few games I didn’t see from week three, the stats show that Drew Bledsoe is spreading the ball around well to Terry Glenn, KJ, Jason Witten, and Patrick Crayton. But in the red zone, Keyshaun was targeted 3 times against the Niners, and he has 6 RZ targets on the year. It’s also nice to see Julius Jones involved in the passing game. He had 5 targets in week three and has picked up 16 passes his way for the season.

SF- Arnaz Battle is still producing. 6 more catches for him on 9 targets and a score. With Eric Johnson out for the year, the tight end position is all but gone from the team’s passing offense. Only three balls have gone to a 49ers TE all year. Seeing the highlights of Bradon Lloyd scoring twice against Dallas proves that the Cowboys are still vulnerable to the small, quick receiver (Moss).

Friday Football

BAL- In their first game with Anthony Wright at quarterback, Derrick Mason was the most active Ravens receiver. He caught 8 passes on 10 targets for 60 yards and a score. The tightends, all three of them, were again heavily featured. Heap, Wilcox, and Dinkins had 11 total passes thrown their way. With a bye this week, Baltimore’s top priority is to find their running game.

BUF- J.P. Losman was lucky he didn’t leave Tampa with two or three interceptions to his credit. Josh Reed picked up 7 targets, as did Eric Moulds. But the real story with the Bills right now is with their running back, Willis McGahee. He and Coach Mularkey have had a minor media fued this week in reference to McGahee’s running style lately. I, too, noticed in the preseason that he looked hesitant. The 1-1 Bills face another tough defense this week as they host Atlanta, and McGahee needs to show that he can dominate games because J.P. Losman can’t.

CIN- After picking up 4 more targets against the Vikings, Chris Perry now has 10 total on the season. He also had an impressive 87 yard flare pass called back on Sunday by a holding penalty. Chad Johnson was again the team leader, with 13. He’s on pace for a 184 target season (last year he had 158). Chris Henry looked good, catching 4 of the 4 passes thrown his way. And T.J. Houshmandzadeh picked up 4 red zone targets.

CLE- Trent Dilfer is doing a good job so far this season at getting the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s also spreading his targets around well. Steve Heiden led the team with 8, as the Packers have been hurt by tight ends a lot this year (Marcus Pollard in week 1). Billy Miller also got a chance in the end zone that was knocked away by a defender. As expected, Frisman Jackson only had two passes thrown his way and everyone saw what Braylon Edwards did with three of his four targets. The Browns will face a very fast Colts defense this week, and I expect their rather immobile offensive line to have all kinds of troubles.

DEN- The Broncos did all they could to lose to the Chargers, but it didn’t take. Denver turned the ball over twice inside the Chargers’ 30 and Elam missed two field goals in their first 8 possessions. But 10 fourth quarter points led them to a key divisional victory. Rod Smith (11) and Ashley Lelie (10) led the team in targets and Jeb Putzier had a surprisingly low 3. Charlie Adams seems to still be the #3 WR, as he got 4 passes thrown to him. Darius Watts had just one. The Broncos host KC on Monday night, and they should doing so with an 0-2 record. Still, they also could have beaten San Diego by three touchdowns. Denver’s defense played well.

HOU- Awful.

IND- The Colts are going to expload this week, I can just feel it. They’ve faced two of the best defenses in the league, and yes they are going against Romeo Crennel this week but his Browns just don’t have the talent to do what the Pats have done in the past. Dallas Clark played his first game of the season and he picked up 3 targets. The WR trio maitained their form; Harrison 8, Wayne 7, Stokely 5.

JAX- Reggie Williams continued his rise, with 4 catches on 5 targets. The Jags also kept Matt Jones involved with 3 targets. But Jimmy Smith is still the clear #1. He picked up 7 passes.

KC- Almost by default, Eddie Kennison is still the top WR on the Chiefs. He had a career high 1086 yards in just 14 games last year. He picked up 102 targets last year and is on pace for 104 this season. But I still like #2 guy Sammy Parker. He had 6 passes thrown to him against Oakland, catching 3 for a 28.7 ypc average. In the red zone, the Chiefs went to their running backs 10 times in week one, and 11 times last week. Tony Gonzalez has just two RZ chances on the season. He’s a little behind his three year average of 21.6 and he’s got those talented Denver linebackers to deal with this week.

MIA- Randy McMichael was busy against the Jets, pulling in 8 passes on 11 targets. On the year, he has 14 catches on 18 targets, and four looks inside the red zone. Chris Chambers is also getting a lot of passes, as he has 20 targets on the year and five inside the twenty. But Chambers only has 6 receptions so far.

NE- Daniel Graham only got one pass thrown his way in week two, but it was a 1 yard touchdown strike. Ben Watson is still the top TE target, he got 5 more passes thrown to him against Carolina. Deion Branch (14, 25 in two weeks) is the clear #1 and David Givens (9) a solid #2 guy. New England’s offense really struggled last week. They only ran one play in the red zone (Graham) and that was only after Troy Brown’s 71 yard pass play that ended on the 1. Their best starting field position was from their own 33 and they made it into Carolina territory just four times (TD, INT, FG, Fumble).

NYJ- Laveranues Coles and Justin McCareins had identical target numbers in week two (10 and 8, respectively). Not too much else going on here. The Jets are still finding their way around their new offense.

OAK- Lamont Jordan had a tough time hanging on to the ball against the Chiefs. He caught just 6 of the 11 passes thrown to him. Many of those incompletes were due to Jordan trying to run with the catch too soon. I still think he’s a above average receiver, especially considering his size. The errors he made Sunday night were not really physical; he definitely has the hands to catch 70-80 passes this year and he’s obviously going to get the chance to in this offense (see the OAK preview). After two weeks, it looks like I might be wrong about Randy Moss. He’s got 10 catches and two scores so far and that’s in line with the projections I had him at. But the 257 yards he’s racked up is way ahead of the pace I’d thought he’d go on. In fact, he’s on pace for 2056 and even though it’s only two games, I didn’t see him getting to 1600. But that looks to be where Moss is headed. He’s getting the ball thrown to him plenty (22 total targets). Jerry Porter had 11 targets in week two and with Ronald Curry out of the year, Porter should see an increase in his production. Also look for Doug Gabriel to make an impact as he returns this week from a finger injury.

PIT- All of these crazy Pittsburgh stats are either very misleading or they underscore how fantastic this team is playing. We’ll find out this week, but from my point of view, it looks like they are rolling.

SD- The Chargers got Antonio Gates involved right away, as he went 8 for 8 in passes. Keenan McCardell continued his high pace with 8 more targets, giving him 22 on the year. And not only has LT not caught a pass all season, but he’s only been thrown one ball.

TEN- Steve McNair used his back heavily against the Ravens, throwing 15 passes to the trio of Chris Brown, Travis Henry, and Troy Fleming. In turn, the tight ends saw considerably fewer balls (4, down from 13). The wide receivers were led by Drew Bennett (8) and Brandon Jones (6). The Titans are back on the road to St. Louis this week.

And from the NFC…
CAR- The Pats were focused on slowing Steve Smith. He only had 4 catches on 6 targets for 34 yards. Keary Colbert had 7 balls thrown his way but didn’t come down with one. Ricky Proehl stepped up for the Panthers, catching 3 of 3. And Rod Gardner, who reportedly has been slow to learn the offense, picked up one red zone chance. It’s Stephen Davis’ team inside the twenty, he scored 3 RZ touchdowns on 6 chances.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Buffalo Bills

How quickly J.P. Losman goes from being a talented prospect to a legitimate NFL quarterback now lies directly in the hands of Bills G.M. Tom Donahoe (responsible for putting an inexperienced signal caller at the reigns of an otherwise playoff-caliber team), Head Coach Mike Mularkey, Offensive Coordinator Tom Clements, and Quarterbacks Coach Sam Wyche.

Probably the most recognizable name in that list is Wyche’s- a former NFL head coach who went 84-107 over ten years of service with the Bengals and the Bucs. Wyche worked with both Losman and Drew Bledsoe last season, so there should at least be in place an established, working relationship between the protege and mentor. Having spent his early NFL years with Bill Walsh and the 49ers (1979-82), Wyche has recently survived a serious heart disease, cardiomyopathy, and a lacerated vocal cord nerve that forced him to retire as a broadcaster in 2000. Before joining the Bills prior to the 2004 season, Wyche worked as a high school coach for two years in South Carolina.

Clements came with Mularkey to the Bills from Pittsburgh prior to the 2004 season. From 2001 to 2003 with the Steelers, Clements served as the quarterbacks coach during Kordell Stewart’s Pro Bowl season in ‘01 and he also helped resurrected the career of Tommy Maddux in ‘02. Prior to that, Clements was the QB coach in KC when Elvis Grbac made the Pro Bowl in 2000. He’s also worked under Lou Holtz at Notre Dame (1992-95) coaching the Irish’s quarterbacks. Clements is himself a former quarterback who started three seasons at Notre Dame (1972-74), going 29-5 there. He played in the CFL and also holds a law degree (magna cum laude fron ND).

With Wyche and Clements, it’s hard to think that the Bills could have any two better coaches working with the gifted and brash former Tulane Green Wave QB. Last year, the Bills ranked 27th overall in completions, attempts, and total passing yards. But at this point in each of their careers, the differences between Bledsoe and Losman are as great as the risk the Bills are taking in turning over the starting QB job to someone who has thrown just 5 regular season passes in the NFL.

Losman will at least have a strong supporting cast of playmakers. Eric Moulds will be entering his 10th NFL season, and is still a smart route runner with dependable hands. At the age of 32, however, I wonder how many 1000 yard seasons he has left in him. Moulds is 6′2, 210 pounds, and he’ll at least be able to rely on his overpowering strength over the final years of his career.

The emerging star of the Bills’ receivers is undoubtedly Lee Evans. The former Badgers All-American came to the NFL with questions about the health of his knee but last year’s 843 yard, 9 touchdown rookie season showed everyone that he is just as fast as he was in Wisconsin before the injury. There should be concern in thinking that Evans will turn into a top fantasy WR this year, since he’s now a sophomore with a rookie QB, but anyone in a keeper league should take notice on Evans. He already is one of the premiere deep threats in the league. Evans has the character, the speed, and the ball skills to become a top 10 WR in the NFL.

At running back, I’ve seen a few places list Willis McGahee as a top 10 fantasy pick for this season. That is not at all a bad projection for the former Hurricane. With 1128 yards and 13 TDs last year, McGahee is set up for a nice sophomore season. But, as everyone knows, this is officially McGahee’s third year in the NFL. What everyone should also know is that 1058 of those 1128 yards last year came in the Bills’ last 12 games. If you pro-rate those numbers (88.16 YPG) out over the course of a full season, McGahee was on pace to finsh 2004 nearly 75 yards ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson with a total of 1411 yards. Add in the 17 touchdowns he would have been on pace to score, and you’ve got a top 10 fantasy running back. Actually, you have a top 5 fantasy running back.

With Losman taking snaps and with Mularkey’s emphasis on power running and defense, McGahee will be leaned on heavily. And while he looked tentative at times last season after taking hits to his surgically repaired knee, the more it held up over the season, the more confident and punishing he ran. It’s still yet to be determined if he’ll ever posses the same breakaway speed he had in Miami (e.g. the post-ACL Edgerrin James era), but McGahee is still fast enough to break long runs in the NFL. There will be great concern, however, if McGahee were to get hurt, as the Bills have no proven backup at this point.

One final note the the Bills’ running back: McGahee is not as talented a pass catcher as Travis Henry, but he still hauled in 22 passes for 169 yards last year (paced for 207) and with a young quarterback, it’s a safe assumption that McGahee will be targeted as a safety receiver at least that many times this year. Assuming he plays in 15 or 16 games, I suspect MsGahee ends the 2005 season with around 1600 yards from scrimmage and at least 12 touchdowns.