NFL | 2006 | Playoffs - New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts - Preview

Key Stats
• Colts are now 9-0 at home this season
• Tom Brady has a 23-1 career record on turf
• The Colts have defeated the Patriots in their last two meetings, dating back to the 2005 season. They won 40-21 on 11.07.05 and 27-20 on 11.05.06. Both games were in New England.
• Patriots players reportedly have been passing around the flu.
After last week’s win in Baltimore, NFL Network cameras picked up Tony Dungy commenting that they just “played some old school Buc Ball”. It’s hard to imagine this Colts team looking more like the 1999 Bucs than the offensive powerhouse they have been over the years, but that seems to be the case. I’m impressed. The Colts are doing just enough to be different on offense. They are finally using a fullback again. They have worked out their offensive line slide pass protection issues. And they are changing their pace around; becoming a little less predictable. But make no mistake, this is a defensively minded team right now.

Last week against the Ravens, the Baltimore defense did their job. They got Manning to move out of the pocket, where he’s one of the least accurate QBs in the NFL. They forced 2 INTs (even though one was more like a punt), and Manning was fortunate to have 2 more sure INTs tipped by Ray Lewis just before they fell into the hands of a Raven teammate (McAllister, Reed).

Indy controlled the clock and game temp on offense, but with the Ravens’ safeties playing 20 yards off the line, Manning wasn’t able to strike for any deep scores. That combined with their continued red zone issues resulted in 0 touchdowns. How the Colts manage to get points when they enter the Patriots’ 30 yard line will determine their success today.

On defense for Indy against the Ravens, the Colts really benefited from a sleepy Baltimore attack. Every big play Baltimore had was followed up with a drive-killing mistake. It was a brutal performance for Billick’s team. The Colts ended up with 6 points off of Ravens turnovers but on both of the the turnovers the Ravens forced, they gave the ball right back to the Colts with a turnover of their own.

The Colts now have 2 games on tape for the Pats to study what their defense is doing differently that is causing this unpredictable success. Most notably, Indy is loading up against the run on first downs and forcing 2nd & 3rd and longs. The Ravens figured this out and in the second half they moved the ball much better when they came out throwing on first down. On 9 of their 12 first down plays in the second half, the Ravens passed. I’d expect the Patriots to open a lot of their drives today with 4 or 5 receivers wide.

My personal record this postseason has been devastatingly bad. I have no explanation as to why a team like Baltimore could not keep themselves from shooting their own foot off last week. Same with Dallas the week before. Both of those games should have been decisive victories for the losers. That said, I think the Colts take this one. It’s at home, which is huge for the defense. And the Pats defense is no where near as good as the Ravens’ D. The Colts will get the 24 points they need to win. New England’s injuries at safety will be the difference maker. Their on their backups and even their backups’ backups back there.

NFL | 2006 | Playoffs | Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens - Preview

• Dungy: 6-8 playoff record
• Billick: 5-2 playoff record
• Manning: 4-6 playoff record
• McNair: 5-4 playoff record
Summary
I like the Ravens to win it all this year, and I certainly like them in this matchup. On both offense and defense, the Ravens have what it takes to defeat the Colts.

Ravens On Offense
The USA Today put out this table detailing exactly what the Ravens offense has done since Billick has taken over the play calling. The article (which is a good read as well) came out on December 20th, so it’s a little out of date. The Ravens are actually 9-1 now since the change was made during their bye week.

So if you take the USA table and update it to include the Ravens’ last two games, here’s what it looks like:



WITH FASSEL CALLING PLAYS
Bold indicates highest output in this span
Date	Game	Result	Total offense yards	Lewis rushing yards	McNair passing yards	Offensive points
Sept. 10	at TB	W 27-0	271	78	181	20
Sept. 17	OAK	W 28-6	264	70	143	26
Sept. 24	at CLE	W 15-14	340	86	264	15
Oct. 1	SD	W 16-13	206	34	158	14
Oct. 9	at DEN	L 13-3	257	43	165	3
Oct. 15	CAR	L 23-21	292	41	230*	21
Record: 4-2		Averages	271.7	58.7	190.2	16.5
*McNair injured; Kyle Boller threw for 226 of the team’s 230 passing yards

WITH BILLICK CALLING PLAYS
Bold indicates highest output in this span
Date	Game	Result	Total offense yards	Lewis rushing yards	McNair passing yards	Offensive points
Oct. 29	at NO	W 35-22	293	109	159	21
Nov. 5	CIN	W 26-20	374	72	245	19
Nov. 12	at TEN	W 27-26	421	45	373	27
Nov. 19	ATL	W 24-10	328	91	236	24
Nov. 26	PIT	W 27-0	275	66	140	20
Nov. 30	at CIN	L 13-7	316	61	227	7
Dec. 10	at KC	W 20-10	376	81	283	20
Dec. 17	CLE	W 27-17	373	109	238*	27
Dec. 24	at PIT	W 31-7	359	77	256	31
Dec. 31	BUF	W 19-7	327	69	216	19
Record: 9-1		Averages	344.2	78.0	237.3	21.5
*McNair injured; Boller threw for all 238 passing yards
Sources: Nate Davis, USA TODAY research


The improved production is impossible to ignore. And what I like most about the Ravens new offense is that they run the football, no matter how effective it is. They don’t give up on it because they know they need the threat of the run to be there at all times in order to execute their passing game.

Against the Colts defense, we’ll see them have at least enough success on the ground to make their offense work. Any team that Baltimore sees the rest of the way will be one that can stuff their average ground game (Chicago).

Colts On Offense
The Ravens are the nightmare matchup for the Colts offense. Forget the 3-4 vs the 4-3 debates; this defense is going to disrupt everything the Colts do.

When you’re playing Indy, it’s all about 2 things: play physical off the line with the Colts receivers to disrupt their timing and show different defensive fronts and rush different players every down. The Ravens do both very, very well.

This video, also from the NFL Network this week, is the best explanation on what the Colts do with their pass blocking and you can see why unpredictable defenses give them trouble:

That’s really all there needs to be said. I’ve detailed my dislike for Indy’s offense in great detail here. Just browse their category for more. The Ravens should roll all over Indianapolis in this one.

Video | NFL | Ed Reed and Reggie Wayne’s Snake

I really like Ed Reed. He’s a talented and hard-working safety and even though his ball-hawking skills haven’t been on display over the last two seasons as they once were, he’s still a top safety in the league.

The clip I added to the video library from last night’s Total Access interview has nothing to do with football.

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - Baltimore Ravens

27-26 vs TEN

Mark Clayton is officially more dangerous than Derrick Mason. I’ve been a big fan of Clayton’s since he was in college and after what I saw at the 2006 Combine, I knew he’d be a real good WR. But hamstring problems during the preseason scared me away from him a bit this season. He worked his way through those and now leads the Ravens in targets (68) and catches (41). He is showing the top end speed and short area quickness to be a top NFL WR threat.

Clayton’s TD catch in this game was a gimmie, after the Titans’ blew their coverage and jumped a McNair pump fake into the flat. Clayton has a similar skill set to Marvin Harrison and could put up even bigger numbers in a more friendly offense.

In the last two weeks since Brian Billick has taken over the offense, Clayton has seen 13 passes go his way in each of those games. He has 68 on the year, so 38% of his targets this season have come since Billick has taken over.

The Ravens gave up on the run very early in this game. They weren’t very successful when they tried to come out running and were forced to put the ball up after falling behind. The Ravens’ offensive line gave McNair time to throw all day long. In 47 attempts, he was sacked just once.

2006 | Week 2 - Baltimore Ravens

28-6 vs OAK

Targets stats only this week.

CATCHES / TARGETS:
Mason - 5/11
Heap - 5/7
Smith - 2/3
Clayton - 1/3
Williams - 1/3
Moore - 0/3
Anderson - 1/1
Green - 1/1
Wilcox - 0/1

2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Baltimore Ravens

INDEX

Brian Billick - Head Coach, 8th season with BAL
Jim Fassel - Offensive Coordinator, 3rd season with BAL

I’m pretty sure the Ravens will win the AFC North this year, but I don’t necessarily think their offense is going to be a great one. But with the defense Baltimore will field this season, all the offense has to do is score 17 points a game and they’ll win 12. It’s odd to start an offensive coordinator preview by talking about defense, but of all the Ravens available this year, their defense is the one fantasy player I think is worth owning.

Over the last few years, I’ve been able to snag a team defense that usually ends up available as a free agent. I did okay with Jacksonville as my value defense last season (see last year’s post for previous season summary). Their performance wasn’t the top 3 finish I had pulled off in years prior, but the Jags were at least a top 10 defense and the one thing I did predict (that their pass rush would be greatly improved) came true; as the D went from 17th in sacks in 2004 (with 37) to tied for 3rd last season (with 47).

This year, I’m going to have to pick two defenses because I think this Ravens D is a steal at their ranking in the bottom half of the top 10. (I’m still looking for the one that can be had cheap.) Rex Ryan is in his second year as coordinator and despite a ton of injuries and a terrible offense last season, the Ravens were still able to field a competitive defense. This year, the most immediate improvement will be the new offense that will help keep the defense off the field. And it helps that Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are healthly.

The team signed veteran Trevor Pryce, who can play DE in the 3-4 or 4-3. LB/DE Adalius Thomas is about to become a well known name in the league. 2005 draft pick Dan Cody is healthy, after missing almost all of last season. Plus the return of starters Terrell Suggs, Chris McAlister, Samari Rolle, Kelly Gregg, and Bart Scott. There is versatility all over their roster and they’re going to line players up all over the field. All this is on top of a defense that finished second best in yards per pass attempt last year (5.63), eighth best in yards per rush attempt (3.69), and fifth overall in total yards allowed.

The Ravens defense will cost a relatively high price, but I think unlike most the top 10 D’s out there this year, this one is actually worth it.

There’s been plenty of talk about the old Jamal Lewis being back in action. After watching the Ravens first preseason game this past week, I agree that he’s at least hitting the hole like a running back should do; something I was critical of his game last season. Still, watching Lewis looks a little like watching the post knee injury Edgerrin James. There’s still a lot there to like, but those determined, game breaking runs seem like a long time ago. He’s slimmed down a bit from last year’s weight. He’ll be without a full time full back this season, but the Ravens have a lot of guys at the TE position and even backup Mike Anderson who they’ll use as a lead blocker. Lewis looks like he’ll return to the 4.4 yards per carry player he once was, but I wouldn’t expect anything like his 2003 season again or much over 300 carries this season. 4.4 times 300 equals 1320.

Obviously, the other big story for this offense is Steve McNair and how quickly he can pick up this new system. Jim Fassel’s offenses with the Giants were never very high scoring, so I don’t think that McNair is in the list of top 10 QBs. Fassel runs somewhat of a simplistic but sound gameplan; one that relies heavily on individual execution. He’s a good coach and someone who can lead this offense now that the team, the club, and the city have confidence in their quarterback.

McNair is a highly accurate QB (career completion % at almost 60%), former co-MVP, who is now entering his 12th NFL year. He’ll provide plenty of leadership and wins; two things this team needs much more than a 4000 passing yards season. Derrick Mason and Todd Heap should meet their expected numbers, but the question mark now is what will happen with the team’s #2 WR spot if 2nd year pro Mark Clayton continues to have hamstring problems. If Ashlie Lelie ends up a Raven, things could change very quickly for this offense.

Week 12 - Baltimore Ravens

29-42 at Cincinnati

This game interested me for a number of reasons. First, I wanted to see how Jamal Lewis got his 113 rushing yards. Second, I wanted to see how the Ravens could possibly score 29 points inside 4 quarters.

For Lewis, it was again not a real good start, even though he picked up 24 yards on the first drive. Despite that production, he still wasn’t running like he used to when he was making plays. But as the game went on, and after a couple of good looking runs, including one in particular that went for close to 20 yards but was called back on a holding penalty, he began to gain confidence and get those legs turning more and more. By the end of the game, he definitely looked strong, but a little fatigued. Still too often in this game, and this entire year for that matter, the offensive line has allowed a streaking defender to penetrate the line of scrimmage nearly untouched. And Lewis just usually falls down at his feet.

Kyle Boller missed a wide open Derrick Mason near the goal line on the game’s first drive. He missed him by a good 10 feet. Later in the game, on Boller’s first INT, he again showed little understanding of how to put a receiver into a position to make a play on the ball. The Bengals blitzed up the middle and left Deltha O’Neil 1 on 1 with Mark Clayton as they rolled their coverage towards Mason. Boller read this correctly, but threw the ball to the inside, too low, and too deep instead of high or short. O’Neil had good coverage on Clayton to begin with, and Boller’s throw made it an easy pick as O’Neil was able to box Clayton out and run straight to the pass. Boller had 15 passing yards in the first half.

Mark Clayton had a tough time reading the ball in the air on a couple of occasions during this game. His value as a depth threat doesn’t seem as high as it is as a catch and run guy (which he won’t get much of a chance to do in this kind of offense).

So down 0-34, how did the Ravens come back to score so many points?

Their first score was really set up by a couple of nice, hard runs by Lewis (albeit against 7 man fronts with the linebackers a good 6+ yards off the line). With the defense creeping up as the Ravens crossed the 30 yard line, Boller hit Mason on a 28 yard score. TD #2 was the first play after a TJ fumble that was recovered at midfield. Boller went deep to Heap on a corner route against a undersized corner who was all alone in what looked like some lackadaisical cover 3 defense.

The Bengals then tried to respond on their next play from scrimmage, but Palmer tried to force a deep ball in to a tight spot that was surrounded by three defenders and it was picked off. It was only after that play that the Ravens finally showed any intensity at all. They drove 30 yards and scored on a Lewis TD run that was set up this time by some smart underneath passes that the Bengals defense was giving away with a 31-14 lead in the fourth quarter.

Cincy then wised up on their next drive and gave Rudi Johnson a chance to do what he does best; driving 61 yards in almost 6 minutes to put the game away. In sum, the Ravens picked up 29 points simply because with a 34-0 lead, the Bengals primarily rushed 4 and dropped 7 deep and allowed Boller to pretend he was back in college. Lewis was impressive in the second half, but I’ll need to see him run like this over 60 minutes and against a good run D before I’m convinced he’s ready to play at his top level again.

TARGETS(catches):
Clayton- 8(2)
Mason- 7(3)
Heap- 7(6)
Lewis- 6(5)
Hymes- 1(0)
Wilcox- 1(1)
Dinkins- 1(0)
Green- 1(1)

Week 10 - Baltimore Ravens

3-30 at Jacksonville

Kyle Boller started the game 8 for 8 but he didn’t do anything remarkable. Instead, those numbers look better than they were because he took a couple of bad sacks early by holding on to the ball too long.

Jamal Lewis started both the first and second halves running… eh… better than he has lately. But he still has a ways to go before he’s hitting those holes like he used to.

The Ravens stopped Greg Jones on a 4th and 1 in the game’s first series. But what that showed me is how inconsistent they are right now on defense. You could tell which downs they were up for and the ones that they weren’t. I assume that the on-field leadership they lost with Lewis and Reed out for a couple of weeks is taking its toll. Matt Jones’ long touchdown catch was just as a result of the Ravens playing lazy defense. Prior to that play, the Jags had run nothing but short routes and the Ravens’ DBs were just standing still 15 yards off the ball when Jones streaked past them for the score.

Boller made some good throws against single man coverage but that’s about all he did that was good. It’s just so easy to beat the Ravens right now. They aren’t running the ball. They just aren’t. So you can tee off on the QB for first and second down. Send 6 or 7 or even 8 guys. Don’t worry about Lewis; he’ll run into one of them if he gets the ball. And you know Boller will freak out if he sees them coming.

Then on third down and long, rush four, set back in a deep zone and watch the QB dump the ball off short. I don’t care what Brian Billick has said about staying with Jamal Lewis because of the threat he poses. Lewis is not scaring anyone right now. It’s been 9 games. This team has to run the football. If that means its Chester Taylor, then it’s Chester Taylor. But this team has to be able to run the football.

Billick says that Taylor will be “a big part” of the game plan this week, after missing the game against the Jags. You’ve got to at least give Taylor one game with 20 carries, just to see what happens. You’re 2-7 right now.

TARGETS(catches):
Heap- 8(5)
Mason- 7(4)
Lewis- 7(5)
Clayton- 5(2)
Hymes- 3(0)
Smith- 3(3)

Wednesday Football

Cincinnati Bengals
Marvin Lewis may have outsmarted himself to start this game. The Bengals came out and tried to play a conservative, ball control road game in the first half. But with two minutes left, they were losing 0-10 and Plamer had thrown just six passes so far. So in their hurry up offense, the Bengals came out and ran 9 plays (all passes, all completions) for 79 yards and a touchdown. This Titans team is better than most think, but their one obvious weakness is against the pass and you’ve got to come out flying in order to beat them. And to second that point, Palmer completed 81.8% of his 33 pass attempts in the game.

Chris Perry got 4 chances (run and pass) inside the red zone, giving him 10 on the season. That’s second on the team behind Rudi’s 17.

The Bengals still have not found a way to keep teams from running up the middle against them. And they have to face the Steelers this week.
TARGETS(cathces):
Johnson- 9(8)
CPerry- 9(9)
Walter- 5(4)
Washington- 3(2)
JJohnson- 3(1)
Henry- 2(1)
RJohnson- 1(1)
Schobel- 1(1)

Tennessee Titans
The Titans really picked up a couple of good receivers in last year’s draft (Jones, Roby). And it’s a good thing too. Tyrone Calico hasn’t looked like much more than a 4th receiver this season. He was solely to blame on McNair’s first INT that Odell Thurman returned for a touchdown.

In only one game this season (week two) have the Titans tight ends, as a group, been thrown less than 11 passes.

I’m not exactly sure who it was, but the play-by-play man covering this game for CBS must have used the word ‘beautiful’ to describe a pass at least 15 times, and I’m not exaggerating. At one point, it did so on four straight plays and only a McNair incompletion could stop him.

This game ended with a real smart job of coaching on the part of Jeff Fischer. Down by 11 with less than a minute to go, the Titans were able to get a first down on Cincy’s 30 yard line. And rather than spend more time trying to get a touchdown, the Titans spiked the ball to stop the clock and then kicked a field goal to bring them within 8 points of tying the game. Tennessee did not retrieve the resulting onside kick, but you still have to appriciate what that kind of winning attitude will do for a young team like this.
TARGETS(cathces):
Jones- 12(5)
Bennett- 11(7)
Kinney- 5(4)
Troupe- 5(4)
Brown- 2(3)
Calico- 2(1)
Roby- 1(1)
Scaife- 1(1)

—
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens finally played fast and physical on defense and special teams. For the first time this season, they looked to me like a hungry team.

Anthony Wright played a smart game, but by no means was he a playmaker out there against the Browns. He did do a good job at getting the ball to the guys that need to get it most: Mason and Heap. The Browns could not cover Todd Heap. He finally looks healthy and ready to make a difference.

Mark Clayton had an end-around touchdown called back by a holding penalty. The Ravens had 11 total penalties for 97 yards. That’s 32 for 244 in two weeks.

Dear Jamal: HIT THE HOLE RUNNING! You’re dancing behind the line like you think you’re Michael Jackson. Lewis was easily the third best running back on the field this past Sunday in Baltimore.
TARGET(catches):
Mason- 8(8)
Heap- 7(6)
Taylor- 6(4)
Lewis- 3(2)
Hymes- 2(1)
Clayton- 1(1)
Wilcox- 1(1)

Cleveland Browns
This game was a lot like the first three quarters of the Browns game last week against Chicago. The Ravens’ offense was unable to score in the second half, but unlike the Bears, Baltimore’s defense held up. And despite the final score, the Browns were competitive throughout this game.
TARGETS(catches):
Norhtcut- 9(4)
Bryant- 6(4)
Heiden- 5(4)
Shea- 4(3)
Jackson- 3(0)
Droughns- 1(1)
Green- 1(0)

—
San Diego Chargers
With an early lead, the Chargers played a real conservative football game in Oakland. They also used Antonio Gates as a decoy for most of the game; often throwing underneath his routes to Peelle, Neal, or LT.

Keenan McCardell dropped an easy pass in the end zone. It would have been his 6th touchdown of the season.
TARGETS(catches):
Tomlinson- 5(2)
Gates- 4(2)
Neal- 4(4)
McCardell- 3(2)
Peelle- 3(3)
Parker- 1(1)
Caldwell- 1(1)

Oakland Raiders
The Raiders’ defense started this game fired up and ready to stop the run. But their offense wasn’t up to the task. Collins was forced to rush his throws thoughout the game.

This team can still move the ball with Jerry Porter and Doug Gabriel as their top wideouts, but it’s really the play of their underachieving offensive line that is going to determine whether or not Oakland can get back into the playoff race.
TARGETS(catches):
Porter- 12(5)
Gabriel- 11(5)
Jordan- 7(6)
Anderson- 6(2)
Whitted- 5(4)
Moss- 3(0)
Zlemister- 1(0)

—
Washington Redskins
Another game is in the books where Clinton Portis looks great running in a single back set, and not so great having to find room behind lead blockers.

The Redskins have done a great job at getting Santana Moss the ball where he can do the most damage; near the line of scrimmage or way down the field. Over last three weeks, Moss has been thrown 12, 13, and 14 passes respectively.

Fox Sports brought in an interesting stat. After Tony Gonzalez drew a defensive pass interference call on the Redskins with 5:40 left in the first quarter, Fox noted that it was the first of such penalty Washington’s defense has been guilty of all season.

Chris Cooley really does a good job playing that tweener H-back spot for this team. And he runs faster than I thought he could.
TARGETS(catches):
Moss- 14(10)
Cooley- 8(6)
Patten- 6(2)
Thrash- 4(2)
Portis- 4(4)
Royal- 2(0)
Sellers- 1(1)

Kansas City Chiefs
With Willie Roaf back in the lineup, it was believed that Tony Gonzalez would see more opportunities to catch the ball. Over the last few weeks, KC has had to use their tight ends in pass blocking a little more than they are used to and it obviously hurt Gonzo’s already slipping pass production. In this game, the Redskins often used three defenders to contain Gonzo, but on those downs #88 was left to run against single coverage, Green looked for him immediately.

KC seems to be using more 3 WR sets than I remember them running in the past. And I wonder what happened to their high hopes for TE Kris Wilson. I didn’t see him at all in this game.

The Chiefs came out in the second half running a couple of different of screen passes and they ended up scoring on their first possession of the third quarter. Then on defense, KC came after Mark Brunnell hard until Moss hit that 80 yard flanker screen. Later in the game, the Chiefs scored the game winner on another screen pass, this time a 60 yarder to Holmes.

This was a strong game from both teams and one that could have gone either way.
TARGETS(catches):
Gonzalez- 6(2)
Holmes- 6(5)
Parker- 3(2)
Boerigter- 3(2)
Hall- 2(2)
Kennison- 2(0)
Dunn- 1(1)
Johnson- 1(1)
Richardson- 1(0)

Friday Football

BAL- In their first game with Anthony Wright at quarterback, Derrick Mason was the most active Ravens receiver. He caught 8 passes on 10 targets for 60 yards and a score. The tightends, all three of them, were again heavily featured. Heap, Wilcox, and Dinkins had 11 total passes thrown their way. With a bye this week, Baltimore’s top priority is to find their running game.

BUF- J.P. Losman was lucky he didn’t leave Tampa with two or three interceptions to his credit. Josh Reed picked up 7 targets, as did Eric Moulds. But the real story with the Bills right now is with their running back, Willis McGahee. He and Coach Mularkey have had a minor media fued this week in reference to McGahee’s running style lately. I, too, noticed in the preseason that he looked hesitant. The 1-1 Bills face another tough defense this week as they host Atlanta, and McGahee needs to show that he can dominate games because J.P. Losman can’t.

CIN- After picking up 4 more targets against the Vikings, Chris Perry now has 10 total on the season. He also had an impressive 87 yard flare pass called back on Sunday by a holding penalty. Chad Johnson was again the team leader, with 13. He’s on pace for a 184 target season (last year he had 158). Chris Henry looked good, catching 4 of the 4 passes thrown his way. And T.J. Houshmandzadeh picked up 4 red zone targets.

CLE- Trent Dilfer is doing a good job so far this season at getting the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s also spreading his targets around well. Steve Heiden led the team with 8, as the Packers have been hurt by tight ends a lot this year (Marcus Pollard in week 1). Billy Miller also got a chance in the end zone that was knocked away by a defender. As expected, Frisman Jackson only had two passes thrown his way and everyone saw what Braylon Edwards did with three of his four targets. The Browns will face a very fast Colts defense this week, and I expect their rather immobile offensive line to have all kinds of troubles.

DEN- The Broncos did all they could to lose to the Chargers, but it didn’t take. Denver turned the ball over twice inside the Chargers’ 30 and Elam missed two field goals in their first 8 possessions. But 10 fourth quarter points led them to a key divisional victory. Rod Smith (11) and Ashley Lelie (10) led the team in targets and Jeb Putzier had a surprisingly low 3. Charlie Adams seems to still be the #3 WR, as he got 4 passes thrown to him. Darius Watts had just one. The Broncos host KC on Monday night, and they should doing so with an 0-2 record. Still, they also could have beaten San Diego by three touchdowns. Denver’s defense played well.

HOU- Awful.

IND- The Colts are going to expload this week, I can just feel it. They’ve faced two of the best defenses in the league, and yes they are going against Romeo Crennel this week but his Browns just don’t have the talent to do what the Pats have done in the past. Dallas Clark played his first game of the season and he picked up 3 targets. The WR trio maitained their form; Harrison 8, Wayne 7, Stokely 5.

JAX- Reggie Williams continued his rise, with 4 catches on 5 targets. The Jags also kept Matt Jones involved with 3 targets. But Jimmy Smith is still the clear #1. He picked up 7 passes.

KC- Almost by default, Eddie Kennison is still the top WR on the Chiefs. He had a career high 1086 yards in just 14 games last year. He picked up 102 targets last year and is on pace for 104 this season. But I still like #2 guy Sammy Parker. He had 6 passes thrown to him against Oakland, catching 3 for a 28.7 ypc average. In the red zone, the Chiefs went to their running backs 10 times in week one, and 11 times last week. Tony Gonzalez has just two RZ chances on the season. He’s a little behind his three year average of 21.6 and he’s got those talented Denver linebackers to deal with this week.

MIA- Randy McMichael was busy against the Jets, pulling in 8 passes on 11 targets. On the year, he has 14 catches on 18 targets, and four looks inside the red zone. Chris Chambers is also getting a lot of passes, as he has 20 targets on the year and five inside the twenty. But Chambers only has 6 receptions so far.

NE- Daniel Graham only got one pass thrown his way in week two, but it was a 1 yard touchdown strike. Ben Watson is still the top TE target, he got 5 more passes thrown to him against Carolina. Deion Branch (14, 25 in two weeks) is the clear #1 and David Givens (9) a solid #2 guy. New England’s offense really struggled last week. They only ran one play in the red zone (Graham) and that was only after Troy Brown’s 71 yard pass play that ended on the 1. Their best starting field position was from their own 33 and they made it into Carolina territory just four times (TD, INT, FG, Fumble).

NYJ- Laveranues Coles and Justin McCareins had identical target numbers in week two (10 and 8, respectively). Not too much else going on here. The Jets are still finding their way around their new offense.

OAK- Lamont Jordan had a tough time hanging on to the ball against the Chiefs. He caught just 6 of the 11 passes thrown to him. Many of those incompletes were due to Jordan trying to run with the catch too soon. I still think he’s a above average receiver, especially considering his size. The errors he made Sunday night were not really physical; he definitely has the hands to catch 70-80 passes this year and he’s obviously going to get the chance to in this offense (see the OAK preview). After two weeks, it looks like I might be wrong about Randy Moss. He’s got 10 catches and two scores so far and that’s in line with the projections I had him at. But the 257 yards he’s racked up is way ahead of the pace I’d thought he’d go on. In fact, he’s on pace for 2056 and even though it’s only two games, I didn’t see him getting to 1600. But that looks to be where Moss is headed. He’s getting the ball thrown to him plenty (22 total targets). Jerry Porter had 11 targets in week two and with Ronald Curry out of the year, Porter should see an increase in his production. Also look for Doug Gabriel to make an impact as he returns this week from a finger injury.

PIT- All of these crazy Pittsburgh stats are either very misleading or they underscore how fantastic this team is playing. We’ll find out this week, but from my point of view, it looks like they are rolling.

SD- The Chargers got Antonio Gates involved right away, as he went 8 for 8 in passes. Keenan McCardell continued his high pace with 8 more targets, giving him 22 on the year. And not only has LT not caught a pass all season, but he’s only been thrown one ball.

TEN- Steve McNair used his back heavily against the Ravens, throwing 15 passes to the trio of Chris Brown, Travis Henry, and Troy Fleming. In turn, the tight ends saw considerably fewer balls (4, down from 13). The wide receivers were led by Drew Bennett (8) and Brandon Jones (6). The Titans are back on the road to St. Louis this week.

And from the NFC…
CAR- The Pats were focused on slowing Steve Smith. He only had 4 catches on 6 targets for 34 yards. Keary Colbert had 7 balls thrown his way but didn’t come down with one. Ricky Proehl stepped up for the Panthers, catching 3 of 3. And Rod Gardner, who reportedly has been slow to learn the offense, picked up one red zone chance. It’s Stephen Davis’ team inside the twenty, he scored 3 RZ touchdowns on 6 chances.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Baltimore Ravens

As I expressed during the off-season, it has not been hard to find news about whats happening with this Ravens’ offense. And the one quote that has made its way around the most is this:

“This is all orchestrated for Kyle, this playbook, this offense, because he has to be successful,” Coach Brian Billick said. “We have every confidence he can be, not only with the people we brought in, but with the structure we’ve wrapped around him.”

Moving into the offensive coordinator position after Matt Cavanaugh ‘resigned’, is Jim Fassell. The former NY Giants Head Coach worked with the Ravens last season as a senior consultant and he has a good relationship going with quarterback Kyle Boller. Pairing the two is an interesting match. Fassell is credited with recruiting and coaching Boller’s idol, John Elway, at Stanford and then again in Denver during the 1993 and 1994 seasons.

With the Giants, Fassell spent seven seasons as their head coach, going 58-53-1. During his reign in New York, Fassell’s offenses averaged a rank of 17th in total yards, and 22nd in total points. With Baltimore last year, the Ravens’ offense finished 20th in total yards and 31st in total points.

Looking forward to this season, there is due cause for optimism. The Ravens’ front office has finally supplied the team with a legitimate #1 wide receiver, in Derrick Mason. Over the last five seasons, Mason has averaged 81.2 catches, 1102.2, and 6.8 touchdowns. From 1999 to 2003 in Fassell’s offense, Amani Toomer averaged 74.8 catches, 1146.2 yards, and 6.2 touchdowns a season. After two straight years of 95 receptions for Mason, that number will probably fall back towards his average while his yards per catch will most likely increase slightly this season.

Baltimore also drafted the steal of the first round, Mark Clayton, who I loved at the Combine. Tight end Todd Heap will see plenty of time out of the slot this year, if he’s healthy. Heap is starting camp on the PuP list and he will miss at least the first two weeks of camp. If he’s able to play all year, Heap should end up having the same kind of year Jeremy Shockey had in 2002 with Fassell (74 - 894 - 2). If Heap is unable to play for part of the season, 6′6 WR Clarence Moore may evolve into the team’s top red zone target.

That brings us to third year quarterback, Kyle Boller. The former Cal Bear / Jeff Tedford protege threw for just 2559 yards last season. Perhaps more distressing was his completion percentage (55.6). In only three games last year did Boller complete more than 60 percent of his passes (@CIN, @PHI, vsDAL). He threw for more than 2 TD in a game just once (vsNYG) and in eight games he failed to even throw one touchdown pass.

So where is the optimism? Well, fantasy wise, there’s not much. I do think Boller is a very good leader, he’s just been a victim to his own sloppy mechanics. Boller has struggled over his first two seasons with his accuracy, but to me it’s not a situation where he doesn’t have the talent. He clearly does. Boller just isn’t a quarterback yet. He hasn’t learned how to make the tough throws. But the areas he is lacking in are areas that can be coached. Boller has above average athleticism, one of the strongest arms in football, and a great personality to lead a team. The Ravens needs him to be efficient, and an efficient Boller will mean big things for Mason, Heap (if healthy), and Jamal Lewis.

After gaining a career low 1006 yards over 12 games in 2004, Lewis should end up this season somewhere just below the 2066 yards he gained in ‘03. Don’t be scared off by his low production last season, it wasn’t low at all. During his rookie season of 2000, Lewis average 4.4 yards per carry. After sitting out 2001 with a knee injury, he average 4.3 ypc in 2002, and 4.3 ypc last season. Only his recording breaking performances in 2003 drove his numbers up to 5.3 ypc. Based on an average of 4.4 yards per carry, Lewis can reach 1500 yards with 340 carries, and that’s where I see him ending up this year.

The Ravens signed run-blocking RG Keydrick Vincent away from the Steelers and if they’re able to find a reliable right tackle out of training camp, this will once again be among the top offensive lines in the game.

Finally, don’t be surprised if Fassell jumps ship mid-season to take over as head coach for some other NFL team. If that happens, former University of Washington head coach Rick Neuheisel (currently the quarterbacks coach) will step in to lead the offense.