Archive for the ‘Arizona’ Category

2006 | Week 5 - Arizona Cardinals

20-23 vs KC

Matt Leinart’s debut went pretty much as expected. He showed great poise in the pocket, felt the pass rush very well - good compared even to most of the veteran quarterbacks around. The Cardinals didn’t ask him throw down field as much as it seemed he was ready to. They called a lot of WR screens and Leinart checked down to the RB frequently. Still, he took care of the football pretty well and showed plenty his trademark accuracy. The one INT he threw, however, was certainly a pass he should not have made. The Cards’ downfall in this game was not his play, but their inability to hold a lead on defense and with their ground game.

Arizona had essentially held KC to 3 points through the first three quarters (KC scored their first TD off a blocked punt that they took over at the ARZ 10). As the fourth quarter began, the Cards couldn’t pick up 1 yard for a first down on two consecutive plays and had to punt. The Chiefs took the ball over from there and marched downfield and scored to make it 20-17 and soon after tied the game.

This was certainly another game the Arizona gave away. Rackers had a chance to tie it up with seconds remaining, but his 51 yard FG attempt was wide right. Nonetheless, the Cards are better equiped with Leinart behind center. His ability to read the defense and deliver the football will be a necessary skill with the offensive line they have this season.

Bryan Johnson has a chance to step up now that Larry Fitzgerald is out for the next few weeks. Johnson had a strong preseason and has made plays this season when given chances. He filled in well on Sunday against the Chiefs, but dropped a long touchdown pass in the end zone that could have made the score 27-10 late in the third quarter.

If Johnson was having to step into Boldin’s role, I’d be more concerned. But he should be able to put up solid numbers playing in Fitzgerald’s position. With Troy Walters moving in to the slot, and their solid depth at tight end, the Cards’ skill position players are still better than most.

Targets:
Free resource at Football Die Hards.
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2006 | Week 4 - Arizona Cardinals

10-32 at ATL

Kurt Warner was terrible. He tripped over himself more than once, threw into coverage more than once, and practically held on to the football too long for the entire game. And now Matt Leinart is starting.

Larry Fitzgerald beat DeAngelo Hall one on one in the first quarter for a 46 yard reception that would have gone for 56 yards and a TD had Warner not underthrown him. It was nice to see Fitzgerald show the moves off the line, the long speed, and the ball judgement and jumping ability in all one play against one of the best corners in the game.

Out of 20 carries, Edgerrin James was held to zero or negative yards 7 times.

Matt Leinart will be able come in and spark this offense, I think. The biggest thing right now is that the offensive line is a little better, but not great. Leinart coming in and getting the ball out of his hands on time will be a big improvement.

Targets:
Free resource at Football Die Hards.
They have many helpers.

2006 | Week 2 - Arizona Cardinals

10-21 at SEA

Targets stats only this week.

CATCHES / TARGETS:
Fitzgerald - 4/14
Boldin - 6/11
James - 7/8
Bergen - 2/3
Johnson - 1/3
Ayanbadejo - 2/2
Walters - 2/2
Arrington - 0/1

2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Arizona Cardinals

INDEX

Keith Rowen - Offensive Coordinator, 2nd season with ARZ
Dennis Green - Head Coach, 3rd season with ARZ

First off, there’s currently a big sign on the front page of the Arizona Cardinals’ web site that says, “2006 Season Tickets Sold Out! - Join the Waiting List Now!” There’s a waiting list, in Arizona.

Keith Rowen is in his second year with the Cardinals, and with the large number of returning players on this Arizona offense, the Cardinals pass the first requirement needed for a strong offensive season. Rowen was the TE’s coach at KC for six seasons, the OL coach in Oakland for two seasons before that, and the OL coach under Dennis Green in Minnesota from ‘94-’96. Rowen has coached for 31 years and also holds a master’s degree from Stanford and a doctorate in athletic administration from USC; so this is a very smart guy who’s been around the game all his life.

The Cardinals finished 1st in the league last season in completions, attempts, and passing yards. As a result, they finished last in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, and rushing touchdowns (just 2!). Despite their troubles on the ground, Arizona’s offense was still 7th best in the NFL in yards.

The biggest offseason move they made is probably not Edgerrin James, but the signing of offensive line coach Steve Loney; who comes from Minnesota’s 2002-2005 teams. Loney struggled as the Vikings’ offensive coordinator early last season in working with Daunte Culpepper, but they turned things around and his work as offensive line coach in Minnesota over the previous three seasons speaks for itself.

Loney’s addition is much needed. The Cardinals’ OL last season was just terrible:

The Cardinals lost yardage on about 13 percent of their running plays. Another 12 percent went for no gain, meaning they failed to gain a yard on about 25 percent of their runs.

That article goes on to describe a number of reasons why the line struggled so much, and from what I see, it was mostly mental issues. The talent is there to at least do a serviceable job. Loney has a reputation as a good teacher, so as the Cards start their third straight season with a new OL coach, Loney may just provide the charm Arizona has needed. One thing is certain about this offensive line: they will be huge. Between the 7 names that are expected to start, they average 331 pounds each.

So what should we expect this 2006 Cardinals offense to do? Well, obviously, they’re not going to throw the ball as much as they did last season. Any team who runs the ball just 360 times is a disgrace. In 2004 with Emmitt Smith, the Cards ran 475 times (11th best), and over Green’s 10 years in Minnesota, his Vikings averaged 435.4 rushing attempts per season; which is about average.

Edgerrin James has played 96 career regular season games, and has averaged 365 attempts per 16 games over his career. His career yards per carry average is 4.2 (only his post ACL injury season 3.6 number ruins a very consistent string of 4.2-4.6 averages).

There’s been notice that both the Colts and the Cardinals run their offense out of similar formations.

“There is a giant correlation,” Cardinals offensive coordinator Keith Rowen said. “A lot of runs Edge did well in Indy are in our offense.”


During Green’s 10 years in Minnesota, his running backs averaged 435.6 att, 1797.6 yards, 12.3 tds a season. One interesting note is that even in good years, Green’s RBs don’t seem to run for many TDs. I’d say 12 is a realistic maximum to expect.

If there’s been a knock on James over the past few seasons, it’s been his inside running during short yardage situations (goalline/3rd down). Backup J.J. Arrington also has a similar reputation, so I wouldn’t be surprised if fourth year veteran Marcel Shipp takes from James’ already low projected TD total. I was disappointed last year when Arrington was drafted by the Cardinals. This is not the kind of offense he needs to be in (west coast style). Hopefully, Arrington will get traded to a team that better suits his talents. At least he’s keeping a good attitude.

But back to sum James up, based on all the career stats on hand, I’d expect James to run 350-370 times for around 1500 yards and maybe 10 TDs if everything goes right for him. Personally, I’m not too excited about his fantasy value in Arizona - and not because of questions about the OL. I think the blocking will at least be adequate, but in a league that rewards scoring, James is no longer the kind of runner that gets into the end zone. And with the receiving options this team has, coupled with Green’s history of throwing his way into the end zone, I’d expect the offense to score points through the air.

Both Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin caught 100 passes for just over 1400 yards last season. It’s hard to believe they’ll both duplicate those numbers again this year. Fitzgerald is a down field threat because of his size and body control, Boldin is more of a run after catch guy because of his size and quickness. If anyone’s numbers are going to decline this season, I’d guess it would be Boldin’s. One, he’s more injury prone. And two, I think Fitzgerald is going to put up 1300+ yards and 10 TDs for at least the next 7 seasons. I think Fitzgerald is a lock to produce Torry Holt type numbers for maybe even the next decade. Both Boldin and Fitzgerald will come into the season overrated in fantasy terms, but Fitzgerald is probably worth his draft value.

The tightend position is a three way race, with Eric Edwards, Adam Bergen, and rookie Leonard Pope all possessing skills to be a good receiver, but all three also struggle in the blocking game at times. I think they’ll be a lot of time sharing going on at this position in 2006.

There’s plenty to be optimistic about in Arizona. Sure, everyone was saying that last season, and chances are the 2005 disappointment will tempter most of the positive outlook for this season. But that’s usually when teams do breakthrough. Last year, just at people started to doubt the Seahawks, they went to the Super Bowl. Arizona has to finish above .500 before they start talking about postseason play, but I think this is the year they make that step. Green is in his third year as head coach. He’s finally got the same pieces in place that he had in Minnesota. They open a new stadium, and their defense is strong along the front line. If Bertrand Berry and Antrel Rolle are healthy this season, the Cards have a chance to win a relatively weak division.

For the finals words on the Cardinals preview, I leave them to Kurt Warner:

“I think as a team, especially as an offense, we have such a greater handle on the offense this year,” admitted Warner. “When you’re going out there and you’re running plays, you’re expecting everyone to be in the right place and make the right adjustments. Last year at this time you still were not sure.”

“I see the comfort level of the offensive line, the adjustments they’re making, the moves they’re making and the way they’re working together,” complimented Warner. “From a mental standpoint I feel a lot more comfortable where we are now, than where we were all last season.”

2006 NFL Draft Recap - Arizona Cardinals

2006 Draft Picks

Arizona’s best two picks in this draft came late, with the selection of Gabe Watson in the 4th round and Jon Lewis in the 6th. Watson is just the kind of player that Dennis Green can get at great value to be a consistent NFL football player (see: Randy Moss). Watson seems to be a paycheck player, since he spent most of his senior year at Michigan underachieving and then suddenly turned it on at the Senior Bowl. If Coach Green can get this “dancing bear”, as Mike Mayock calls him, playing at a high level, in two years the Cardinals first NFC West championship will be because of two things: Matt Leinart and the defensive line led by their two interior linemen, Darnell Dockett and Watson. After this year’s draft, the Cardinals’ defensive front seven now has the potential to be one of the best in the NFL.

Jon Lewis is another DT and he gives Arizona great depth at this position. Lewis is a high-motor, very athletic player who’s only real downside is his height (6-1). But Warren Sapp is only 6-2 and both weight about 300 pounds, and I think Lewis plays the type of game that his height will not be as much as a limitation as some think. Lewis will serve nicely as a backup to Dockett at the 3-technique position and is good enough to start should injury fall to the former Seminole.

Dennis Green loves big offensive linemen, and he got another one in Duece Lutui. But I’m not so sure that Lutui is going to be a great upgrade for Arizona. This Cardinals’ line was already huge, led by 366 pound Leornard Davis. Arizona could have used another high energy, technically sound interior lineman. But that’s more of a personal opinion. Coach Green built his line in Minnesota to fit this same mold as what he’s building in Arizona, I just am not so sure if it’s the best thing to have such a one-dimensional line.

The third round selection of Leonard Pope continues with this Cardinals’ philosophy of having big, not so mobile linemen. Pope is a straight ahead tight end who doesn’t possess much wiggle. At 6-8, 257, he is huge, I just don’t think he’ll be much more than a decoy and occasional pass target in this offense.

As for Leinart, there isn’t much to say that isn’t already obvious. He’s a perfect fit for Arizona the city and Arizona the team. His so-called draft day fall to 10th was exactly what he needed to be a successful NFL QB. Leinart is immediately the face of the team, and when he does get a chance to play, he’s got talent all over the field to throw to. One other thing that I think is important, is that other than being left-handed, Leinart’s physical and mental football skills are very similar to Kurt Warner. Both have good but not great arm strength. Both are very good at throwing the deep touch pass. And both are very smart leaders. Leinart is also much more athletic than Warner is, for now at least. The Cardinals won’t have to change much to their offense, other than the righty/lefty thing.

Week 10 - Arizona Cardinals

21-29 at Detroit

The Cardinals ran the ball four times in the first quarter (out of 10 plays). They got -4 on the first rush, -2 on the second, -2 and a safety on the third, and then finally 7 yards on the fourth.

Marcell Shipp in particular had an awful game. J.J. Arrington again looked okay, but for a guy as big as Warrick Dunn, he doesn’t have the moves inside like Dunn has. Obafemi Ayanbadejo was called on in some key instances, that’s how troubled this running game is.

It’s known that Arizona has a very good kicker, but the Cardinals also have a very good punter in Scott Player. He’s very accurate. Man, I’m writing about punters… these guys are in for a long seven weeks.
TARGETS(catches):
Fitzgerald- 14(9)
McCoy- 9(6)
Ayanbadejo- 8(6)
Shipp- 3(1)
Jackson- 3(2)
Bergen- 2(1)
Arrington- 2(1)
Newhouse- 2(2)

Wednesday Football

Week Nine Game Reviews
Carolina - Tampa Bay | Seattle - Arizona | Atlanta - Miami

Carolina Panthers:
Carolina always seems to take their games with the Bucs more seriously than Tampa does. The stats don’t really show the blowout that this game was. Carolina was balanced on offense, they didn’t turn the ball over, and no one can stop Steve Smith.

Julius Peppers again had Kenyatta Walker playing scared. Peppers has just owned Walker over his career.

The Panthers rank 4th in the NFL in points per game, 3rd in third down efficiency, and yet they are 31st in average gain per rushing attempt. The Panthers have forced 20 turnovers this year (tied for 3rd), but they’ve given away 15 themselves. But they are in first place by a wide margin in red zone touchdown percentage (77% versus second places’ 70%). The Panthers do have some holes in their game, and they’ll struggle when facing a team as disciplined and well coached as they are, but there are few out there. Carolina is essentially a NFC contender based on their third down and red zone efficiency alone. Anyone who wants to beat them will need to focus on what Carolina is doing when they need to convert a play.

The Panthers have won five in a row but they still have both games against Atlanta on their schedule.
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 8(5)
Foster- 3(2)
Colbert- 2(1)
Davis- 2(1)
Proehl- 1(1)
Gardner- 1(0)
Mangum- 1(1)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
I don’t think Jon Gruden and his staff are doing a good job at getting their team ready to play. I think they are underestimating their weaknesses and overestimating their strengths. The difference between the Chris Simms that played against SF and the Simms that played against Carolina was clear. Against the 49ers, Simms was in over his head, unsure of the offense, and confused; even though he had a bye week to prepare for the game. Against the Panthers, Simms looked like the player most expected to see. He was getting the ball out on time, and his throws for the most part were where they needed to be.

Now, that said, he’s still a young QB and he’s making mistakes. The INT TD he threw to Chris Gamble wasn’t pretty. It was a 5 yard out that Simms has to make an adjustment on, even as he’s delivering the ball. Gamble broke on the first move and when you see that as a QB, if you’re already throwing you still have the ability to throw it high and over both targets. Simms has always had the label of being a better practice QB than a gamer, and I think a lot of that has to do with how he delivers the ball. Simms has a great arm, and a good throwing motion, he’s just a little too casual with his throws. He’s a reps and rhythm guy who isn’t a playmaker.

Anthony McFarland and the rest of the Bucs was really working hard in this game. The entire defense again gave a good effort, but these safeties still aren’t good enough in coverage to make their system work properly.

TARGETS(catches):
Galloway- 13(5)
Clayton- 8(2)
Pittman- 6(4)
Hillard- 5(4)
Smith- 3(3)
Williams- 3(3)
Becht- 2(2)
Alstott- 2(2)




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Seattle Seahawks:
Seattle used a lot of draws against the attacking Cardinals defense, especially on their opening drive. And it definitely was effective at keeping the Cards off balance on defense.

There has been talk this season that the team chemistry on the Seahawks is in a place it’s never been before. There appears to be something special going on here. Their offense is first in the NFL in total yards per game, average gain per rush, first downs per game, average gain per play, and they are 5th best in points per game. Don’t sleep on them.
TARGETS(catches):
Jurevicious- 6(4)
Engram- 5(3)
Stevens- 3(2)
Hannam- 3(1)
Strong- 1(1)
Morris- 1(1)
Urban- 1(1)


Arizona Cardinals:
New quarterback, same red zone struggles for Arizona. They have scored a touchdown just 3 times in 21 red zone trips this year. And six times they’ve come away with zero points.

I still put this on Kurt Warner. He never had great arm strength, and now it seems he’s a little wary of it and so he holds onto the ball too much. And in the red zone, when passing windows are open for less time than they are anywhere else, Warner is struggling the most. And he had time to throw against the Seahawks, but for almost three full quarter the Cardinals couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone.

The unfortunate part about all this is that Arizona has someone who could potentially be one of the best red zone WR in the game (Fitzgerald).

Someone needs to ask: Why is Kurt Warner starting? This offensive line cannot pass block. Kurt Warner cannot throw on the run. Connect the dots. Why is Kurt Warner starting.

J.J. Arrington is officially back on the radar. He’s been improved over the last few weeks but this was the first game I’ve seen him run with a purpose since his days at Cal. Arrington is still a fish out of water in this offense, however, so I don’t expect anything big to happen. He needs to play in a west coast hybrid system.

Bryant Johnson may have had a nice fantasy day, but he made a couple of key mistakes in this game; including dropping a slant pass in the end zone and blocking from behind on Edwards’ long catch and run. There’s a reason Johnson, a former first round pick, has been a third receiever for most of his career.

And losing Bertrand Berry for the season is going to kill this defense. Take the Cardinals out of the grill, it’s over for them.
TARGETS(catches):
Fitzgerald- 14(8)
Johnson- 11(6)
Newhouse- 7(2)
McCoy- 4(3)
Arrington- 4(4)
Ayanbadejo- 3(2)
Shipp- 2(1)
Bergen- 2(2)
Edwards- 2(1)



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Atlanta Falcons:
Michael Vick’s numbers for this game were certainly impressive, but the Dolphins- who don’t really have a good secondary to begin with- did him a lot of favors by blitzing frequently. You just cannot send 6 or 7 guys to rush Michael Vick. He’s going to be just as fast or faster than any of those blitzers and what you’re doing with the biltz is handing him a decision on where to throw to ball. His one weakness, pass selection, is taken away when you tell him off the snap of the ball where he should go. It becomes a much easier choice for Vick. That’s why Tampa has always been effective against him. They get pressure off the left tackle and they drop seven in coverage.

Atlanta’s defense is still soft against the run, but that is offset by their third down efficiency. The Falcons are 2nd in the league at getting off the field on third downs, a stat that is supplemented by their 4th best QB sack percentage. In this game, their speed was too much for Miami to contend with.
TARGETS(catches):
Finneran- 11(8)
Crumpler- 8(6)
White- 5(3)
Dunn- 4(4)
Griffith- 2(1)
Blakely- 1(0)


Miami Dolphins:
Teams who run the ball are going to be able to move down the field against Atlanta. And Miami’s ground game is still it’s strength. Still, this game wasn’t as close as it needed to be. During the first half, the Falcons gave the ball up on Miami’s 10 once and on their own 15 once, essentially giving the Dolphins 10 points. That allowed Miami a chance to stay with their run game, and stay in the game overall. To their credit, the Dolphins were technically in this game until late into the fourth quarter. Miami can stop the run and they can run the ball pretty well themselves. But they are 30th in the league in time of possession and in order to be competitive, they have to keep the ball out of the air- on both sides.
TARGETS(catches):
Chambers- 6(3)
McMichael- 4(3)
Brown- 4(2)
Booker- 3(2)
Welker- 2(1)
Morris- 2(2)
Williams- 1(0)



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I should have a couple more games up tonight.

Wednesday Football

Arizona Cardinals:
The Cards are trying to use more I-back, two WR sets in order to get more production from their running game, but the results just aren’t there. I guess we’ll see how Kurt Warner does this week. I still don’t understand why Warner was brought in. Josh McCown isn’t great, but you can count on him giving his best. How many games has Warner won this year?

Speaking of McCown, Dallas got good results by getting early pressure on the Cardinals QB. In the second quarter there were two key drives where Arizona could have stayed even with the Cowboys going into halftime. But because of the pressure, and more importantly the fear of pressure, McCown unloaded about six straight passes that were forced or thrown too soon. And so as a result, after a relatively good first quarter, McCown was off target with most of his throws for the rest of the afternoon.

J.J. Arrington continues to show that he has very little understanding on how to run behind blockers. He’s up there on the list of backs that needs to be traded to Denver.

Larry Fitzgerald had a number of jump ball chances in this game, but the Cowboys did a good job of keeping multiple defenders around him at all times.
TARGETS(catches):
Fitzgerald- 11(4)
Boldin- 8(3)
Johnson- 5(2)
Shipp- 5(4)
Bergen- 1(1)
Ayanbedejo- 1(1)
Arrington- 1(1)


Dallas Cowboys:
Bill Parcells loves to face a team who uses plenty of blitzes and so getting ready to face Arizona must have been a fun week for him and his offensive staff.

Marion Barber is a good back, but he really had a ton of room to run on Sunday against Arizona. Dallas ran especially well behind the left side of their line, but the right end struggled to keep defenders back. Most of the profitable runs to the right were as a result of cut backs of plays starting left.

Keyshaun Johnson has been a very consistent performer this season. He’s been thrown no less than 6 passes in any one week, he’s scored in four different games and added a 120 yard effort in one game he didn’t score in.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 7(6)
Witten- 5(5)
Glenn- 4(3)
Price- 2(1)
Barber- 2(2)
Pierce- 1(1)
Polite- 1(1)



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Chicago Bears:
The Bears ended the first quarter having held the ball for just 3:29 and with only 10 total yards of offense. This is just not a good road team and for them to take this one from Detroit is just huge for their season. (They did end up with 216 yards of offense for the first half.)

Losing Mark Bradley is just an awful break for Chicago. Not only was he becoming a protege of Muhammad, but Bradley was beginning to show that great run after catch ability he flashed at Oklahoma. I don’t know if it was a coincidence, but the Bears’ offense did nothing after Bradley went down with his knee injury (which, by the way, was another 100% turf casualty).

Chicago hit a lot of skinny posts in this game. Orton has such a great arm, that when he makes that throw it’s almost impossivle to defend.

The Bears’ defense is probably the fastest in the league. And they just pounded Jeff Garcia in this game.
TARGETS(catches):
Muhammad- 9(4)
Bradley- 5(5)
Jones- 5(3)
Gage- 4(2)
Clark- 4(1)
Wade- 2(0)
Edwards- 1(1)
Peterson- 1(1)

Detroit Lions:
Kevin Jones’ game is really picking up. He turned it on late last year and it looks like he’s about to do something big real soon. Jones looks as quick, as fast, and as strong as ever. And that was obvious before his third quarter TD run where he beat a very good linebacker (Briggs) around the right corner for the score.

Charles Rogers is back this week, but the Lions have good depth at WR even with Kevin Johnson out. Scottie Vines is a good athlete at that position and he’s a quality fourth option.
TARGETS(catches):
Vines- 8(5)
MWilliams- 7(3)
Jones- 6(5)
Pollard- 5(3)
Bryson- 5(5)
Pinner- 1(1)
Martinez- 1(1)



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Minnesota Vikings:
How will Minnesota’s offense run with Brad Johnson behind center? Johnson will certainly bring more efficiency, but he doesn’t have Culpepper’s arm strength. That may actually be a good thing because it will force the Vikings to use more controlled pass plays, something they should have done from the beginning of the season. Minnesota also has to do something about the awful routes their receivers run. On almost every play they will run straight ahead for seven yards, stutter step about six times to try to sell the myth that they’re breaking their route short (which they never do), and then they will go deep. No one’s buying it.

There is just no aggresiveness on defense here. What happened to the attacking style they said they were going to play? Pat Williams continues to be the team’s best defender.
TARGETS(catches):
Williams- 7(3)
Taylor- 5(2)
MRobinson- 5(4)
Wiggins- 5(3)
Williamson- 4(1)
Burleson- 3(1)
Kleinsasser- 2(1)
Moore- 1(1)

Carolina Panthers:
Shame on the Vikings for thinking they could cover Steve Smith with just Fred Smoot. 11 catches for 201.

Smith did his damage with the smoothest, most subtle moves you’ll see out of a receiver. He absolutely had Smoot’s number.

There’s been a lot of flea flickers in the league over the last few weeks, but I yet to see one work. The big thing about these plays is that the wide receivers really have to sell it, and just by judging the results, they are not getting anyone to bite.

The Panthers’ run game has struggled, but with DeShaun Foster back in the lineup they looked improved. He definitely adds something to their attack that Carolina needs to succeed.

Keep an eye on TE Michael Gaines. He had two big catches in this game and I like how comfortable he looks as a receiver (he’s 280 pounds).
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 11(11)
Foster- 5(1)
Colbert- 4(2)
Proehl- 3(2)
Gardner- 2(1)
Gaines- 2(2)
Davis- 2(1)
Goings- 1(0)



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Green Bay Packers:
This was a game where Brett Favre really could have used Javon Walker. Favre’s throws were anything but careful, and 4 of his 5 INTs were passes that the Bengals DBs made better plays on the ball than the Packers’ receivers. Lots of miscommunication out there and not a lot of determination on Green Bay’s part.

The Packers have an underrated defense. They are well-coached and they stop the run better than expected.

I was anxious to see Samkon Gado run, and he did once for 8 yards. Early comparisons to Willie Parker look to be close. Gado is fast, and he has a good, powerful, and low base.

Bubba Franks is a player you might be able to get cheap (or free) right now. Considering there are very few players on this team that Favre has played with, I expect Franks to have a busy second half to the season.

The play to end this game (Favre’s fake spike gallop) is probably one of the ugliest plays to occur in football this year.
TARGETS(catches):
Chatman- 11(8)
Franks- 10(7)
Driver- 9(5)
Lee- 4(3)
Fisher- 4(2)
Henderson- 1(1)

Cincinnati Bengals:
It looked like the Packers in this game borrowed a lot from what the Steelers did on Monday night; bringing pressure by overloading one side and playing a two deep shell behind.

Cincinnati did a poor job at finishing drives, and with Green Bay not allowing them any big plays, the Bengals offense was only able to put together two good drives all game. Their execution is lacking right now, as teams have adjusted a bit to what the Bengals are doing on offense.

Chris Perry’s chances continue to rise.
TARGETS(catches):
CJ- 13(5)
Perry-7(6)
TJ- 6(5)
Henry- 4(2)
Walter- 1(1)
Schobel- 1(1)
RJ- 1(1)
JJ- 1(1)



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Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
You can’t really ask more of your defense than what they got, but still the Bucs couldn’t pull out a victory against SF. Coming in with a record of 5-1 against teams who were a combined 13-23, this game really proved just how fragile the Bucs’ success is.

Third downs have been one of Tampa’s top strengths this season, but with Simms at QB and without any production from the running game, Tampa Bay wen 3 of 14 on third downs. Starting a game on the road is just a very difficult thing for a young quarterback to do.

I can’t believe that with an extra week to prepare, Coach Gruden would hand Chris Simms the same offense to run. But that’s what seems to have happened here. There didn’t appear to be many half-field reads, or designed rollouts (ala Ben Burger, 2004) to slow things down for Simms. And in turn the Bucs were as undisciplined as ever, racking up 8 penalties for the game and also forgetting to tackle Kevan Barlow on the second to last play of the first half (leading to a Nedney field goal).
TARGETS(catches):
Galloway- 13(8)
Clayton- 7(4)
Smith- 3(2)
Alstott- 3(3)
Hillard- 2(1)
Pittman- 2(1)
Williams- 2(1)
Sheppard- 1(1)

San Francisco 49ers:
Mike Nolan won this game for the Niners. He and his staff outcoached Tampa Bay by such a wide margin, the 49ers actually won. Were it not for a great individual play by Joey Galloway, Tampa probably gets blown out 15-3 in this game. San Fran gave up zero turnovers, they ran the ball 39 times for 158 yards, and quite simply they made plays when they needed to. This Cody Pickett is an interesting player, but he’s not really a legitimate quarterback yet. And he’s probably starting this week.
TARGETS(catches):
Lloyd- 6(2)
Morton- 3(1)
Barlow- 3(2)
Jackson- 2(1)
Smith- 2(0)
Bajema- 1(1)
Gore- 1(1)
Beasley- 1(0)

Friday Football

The picks for Week 6 are up. Thanks, as always, to Eric Mirl for gathering up all 34 of us. The Beach is back in second place, after a 9-5 week 5. I’d also like to point out that I’m picking Houston to win on Sunday night in Seattle. It’s crazy, and it’s probably a loser, but it’s a statement pick. If you’re still in a survivor pool, go with someone other than Seattle this week. I just have a feeling the Texans are going to give the Seahawks a game here. I am, however, the only one on the list to take Houston and in fact I’m going against 16 best bets. Sounds like a winner to me.

Miami Dolphins
Ronnie Brown continues to improve. He’s running with a good burst and on one particular play in the second quarter he laid a great pass block on a Bills’ DT who came in free off the snap. That play allowed Ferrotte to stay in the pocket long enough to hit Chris Chambers down the sideline for a nice gain. And on the Dolphins first TD drive, Brown had a really sharp looking 28 yard run that got Miami down to the two. Who knows what the plans are with Ricky back, but Ronnie Brown is just starting to get it and it would be nice to see what he can do. Still you’ve got to do the same for Ricky. Though situation.

Gus Ferrotte had two INTs in the first half that came in Bills territory; one of which was picked in the end zone.

The Bills played okay in this one, but Miami just killed themselves for three quarters with penalties and turnovers.

On the final Miami drive, down 14-20, the Dolphins were moving the ball well. Buffalo kept blitzing and the Dolphins just took the easy throws and executed all the way down the field until Brown fumbled on the Buffalo 15. They could have easily won this game on that drive.
TARGETS(catches):
Chambers- 9(4)
Brown- 7(6)
Booker- 5(3)
Welker- 3(2)
Diamond- 2(1)
Evans- 2(2)
McMichael- 1(1)
Heller- 1(1)
Morris- 1(1)

Buffalo Bills
Kelly Holcomb must have drawn the Dolphins off-sides about four times in the game’s first twenty minutes. That’s already something you can point to and say that Losman would have not done this season.

Sam Adams received a red zone target on the first drive and it took a pass interference penalty to keep him from scoring on the play.

Lee Evans is immediately worth a pickup now that Holcomb is playing QB. Evans will end up being a top tier WR sometime over the next two/three years. He’s not as shifty as someone like Steve Smith, but Evans has that rare top end speed and understanding of the position combination.

A couple games ago, McGahee was criticized by his head coach for his passive running style. Willis is doing a better job at hitting the hole now but he’s still not making things happen on his own as much as one would like to see out of a #1 back. And Shaud Williams has been subing for McGahee on passing downs quite frequently of late.

The Dolphins were 5 for 6 in stopping the Bills from scoring from the one yard line. So the third time Buffalo got down there, they put the ball into the end zone by throwing it.
TARGETS(catches):
Moulds- 9(7)
Evans- 3(3)
Campbell- 3(3)
McGahee- 3(2)
Shelton- 3 (2)
Reed- 2(2)
Williams- 2(1)

—
Carolina Panthers
Like I haven’t told you Steve Smith is good. Last year for the Panthers, Mushin Muhammad caught 93 balls for 1405 yards on 159 targets. Well, Smith is on pace right now for 105 catches, 1513 yards and 160 targets.
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 12(8)
Magnum- 3(3)
Proehl- 3(1)
Gardner- 3(3)
Colbert- 2(0)
Foster- 2(2)
Gaines- 1(1)
Hoover- 1(0)
Goings- 1(0)

Arizona Cardinals
The roles of Marcell Shipp and J.J. Arrington looked more defined in this game. Shipp was getting carries as the team’s #1 back and the Cards were using Arrington more as a Brian Westbrook-like tweener. Arrington looked healthy and very comfortable when doing the things he’s used to doing. I still think Shipp is and should be this team’s first option, but it’s good to know that Arrington is improving on his terrible start to the season. Regardless, this team still can’t run the ball.

Fitzgerald and Boldin were making plays all over the place. That’s one thing Josh McCown allows his receivers to do. McCown will makes his share of errors, but he trusts his receivers and gives them a chance to make plays. Kurt Warner just held on to the ball way too much for this team. Arizona has two of the best receivers in the league and McCown is giving them a chance to make plays. Just think about that pass he threw to Nate Poole to end the Vikings’ 2003 season. Take a look at the target stats below!

Key play of the game: 13:21 left in the second quarter, the Panthers have 3rd and 10 from their own 20. The Cards show only three down linemen, dropping 8, and they end up forcing an incompletion. But Bertrand Berry jumped off-sides giving Carolina a free play, which they convert on a much easier 3rd and 5. The very next play, Steve Smith catches a pass 1 yard behind the line of scrimmage and beats rookie corner Eric Green for a 65 yard touchdown. You just can’t give good teams cheap scores like this.
TARGETS(catches):
Boldin- 17(10)
Fitzgerald- 16(9)
Ayanbadejo- 4(4)
Shipp- 3(2)
Arrington- 2(1)
Johnson- 2(2)
Lee- 1(1)
Bergen- 1(0)

—
Denver Broncos
The Broncos never trailed in this game, and that’s the recipe for success with this team. For the rest of the year, I’ll probably be refering to my preseason write up on Denver and Jake Plummer. Basically, if you put Jake in a shootout, you’re probably going to lose. And this week’s game versus NE looks like it’s going to be a shootout.

I saw a stat this week in the print edition of Pro Football Weekly that said that the Broncos are 9-1 when Plummer throws for less than 200 yards. Weird. But I completely understand it.

Ashley Lelie finally scored on that end zone fade they’ve been working on this year.
TARGETS(catches):
Lelie- 7(1)
Smith- 6(2)
Adams- 3(2)
Johnson- 3(1)
Putzier- 2(1)
Alexander- 2(0)
Anderson- 2(2)
Bell- 1(1)

Washington Redskins
I really feel bad for Clinton Portis. I don’t know if it is as easy as the Redskins changing their blocking schemes, but on the few plays I saw Portis get a chance to run behind a line that zone blocks straight ahead, he looks like a 1600 yard runner. But when he has to wait for a guard and/or a fullback, well Washington might as well have Betts in there.

It was nice to see David Patten play his first productive game of the season.
TARGETS(catches):
Moss- 13(8)
Cooley- 12(8)
Patten- 11(7)
Thrash- 3(1)
Portis- 3(2)
Betts- 3(2)
Royal- 2(1)
Sellers- 1(1)

—
Cincinnati Bengals
Perhaps Chad Johnson was crying because he missed his friend, T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 8(5)
Walter- 6(3)
Henry- 5(3)
Schobel- 4(3)
Washington- 3(2)
Perry- 2(2)
RJohnson- 2(2)
JJohnson- 2(1)
Kelly- 1(1)

Jacksonville Jaguars
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 8(3)
Williams- 5(2)
MJones- 3(0) Wrighster- 3(2) GJones- 2(0) Wilford- 1(1) Brady- 1(1) Pearman- 1(1)

—
New Orleans Saints:
TARGETS(catches):
Hakim- 11(5)
Conwell- 6((3)
Stallworth- 5(1)
Henderson- 3(0)
McAllister- 3(3)
Hilton- 3(1)
Smith- 1(1)

Green Bay Packers:
TARGETS(catches):
Driver- 7(5)
Fisher- 7(6)
Ferguson- 4(3)
Martin- 4(2)
Chatman- 2(0)
Henderson- 1(1)
Lee- 1(1)
Davenport- 1(1)
Leach- 1(1)

Thursday Football

NO- This game was a battle of quarterbacks who don’t know how to throw the ball on time. Devery Henderson took advantage of the Vikings’ lack of depth at corner for 6 catches on 7 targets and 137 yards. Joe Horn had a hard time against Antoine Winfield. Horn had just 1 catch on 6 targets. Donte Stallworth was covered up pretty well too. He didn’t catch any one of the four passes thrown his way. Stallworth did have a punt return TD called back on an illegal block. Ernie Conwell is still the most consistent receiver on this team. Aaron Brooks clearly trusts his tight end. Conwell picked up 8 more targets, but he dropped a few and ended up with just 3 catches. Also, Duece McCallister doesn’t look as quick as I remember him being.

MIN- Don’t be fooled. The Vikings are not back yet. Daunte Culpepper is having problems in the pocket. He’s playing like a first year QB, at times running with the ball way too much and at other times holding on to it too long. And I don’t think it’s so much that he can’t read the defense during the play, but maybe he just doesn’t have confidence in either the offense’s design or his receivers or both. Bottom line, he’s not confortable. The Vikings need to give him more check down options. A couple times they used Mewelde Moore as a swing out option, like how Norv Turner does in Oakland, and they need to do more of that. Mewelde isn’t the best blocker anyhow, so they’re better off getting him to chip on someone before flaring out as a safety valve. With the way the Saints were turning the ball over in their own territory, if Minnesota’s offense was truly fixed, the Vikings would have made this game 28-0 after the first quarter.

What big plays Minnesota did have were just as much at the fault of the Saints as they were to the credit of the Vikings. Minnesota’s first and third touchdowns were simply a case of the receiver beating a corner in man coverage without much help from a safety. Dwight Smith, in particular, had a terrible day against the Vikings.

Still, there are some areas where a little optimism isn’t misguided. Moore looked like he can make a difference out there as this team’s featured back, as long as he can stay healthy. The OLine did a good job blocking for him and despite the seven sacks the stat book shows, they weren’t awful in pass protection. A lot of those should be put on Culpepper.

Also, the Vikings’ defense did a good job forcing the Saints into third and longs, and then brought a myriad of blitzes on third down.

With Atlanta coming up for the Vikes, I’m not too confident that this team has turned the corner on their problems. They easily left around 20 points on the field in week three. They also threw for just 30 yards in the second half, and this wasn’t a blow out either. At one point, the Saints were down by just 8.

As for the targets, Jermaine Wiggins led the team with 7, with Travis Taylor right behind him with 6. Troy Williamson did some good with the four passes thrown his way, but Marcus Robinson was a non-factor, except for one long play down the sideline that Dwight Smith left him wide open for. This team has too many perimeter receivers and will miss Nate Burleson dearly for as long as he’s out. And the bottom line is that Culpepper doesn’t have too much confidence in anyone right now. He’ll throw to them if they’re running free, as they were against the Saints. But against the Falcons, I think they’re going to continue to struggle.

—
ARZ- Anquan Boldin led the team with 12 targets, and he has 30 on the year. Larry Fitzgerald had only 6 passes thrown his way, as he’s clearly the guy opposing defenses want to stop first. Adam Bergen is the starting TE for this team right now, but his chances have been limited. Marcell Ship had another good game running the ball, but his playing time was again limited. This game was 10-9 Seahawks at the half and then 24-9 Seahawks 5 minutes into the third and 31-12 Seahawks after three quarters. The Cardinals defense is very vulnerable up the middle and the only thing they do well (rush the passer) can be partially negated when they play a team like Seattle who uses mostly three and five step drops. Kurt Warner’s groin injury is a serious one, so look for Josh McCown to start more than just this week. I think the Cards are better off with him in there anyway. Arizona has been terrible inside their opponents thirty yard line this year.

SEA- As I mentioned above, Seattle’s strengths on offense really played well into Arizona’s problems on defense. Bobby Engram again had a fine game, catching 5 balls on 8 targets. Darrell Jackson was the team leader with 13, as Arizona played their DBs 10 yards off the line for much of the game. Jerramy Stevens getting chances as the lone TE threat. He picked up 3 catches on 4 targets (including one in the red zone to set up a Alexander TD). Seneca Wallace and Peter Warrick hooked up on a nice 42 yard pass play. It was the first ball thrown to Warrick all season. PDub did a nice job returning punts as well.

—
KC- Tony Gonzalez had a tough time against the Broncos’ linebackers. He did get a season high 9 targets, but caught just 5 of them for a lowly 29 yards. As I expected, he is way behind last year’s pace. Eddie Kennison is still the receiver leader. He picked up 8 catches on 11 targets. The Chiefs tried to get the ball to Sammy Parker too. He got 9 passes, but caught just two of them. KC gets the Eagles at home this week.

DEN- With 17-0 first quarter lead, the Broncos ran the ball for much of the game. They are still a two WR team though, and Rod Smith led the team with 8 targets. After a couple of poor outings, the tight end has temporarily disappeared from this offense. Jeb Putzier did not get one pass his way and Stephen Alexander got only one. The Broncos’ schedule doesn’t get any easier on their short week. They travel to Jacksonville and I hope they saved some real good plays for the Jags. Actually, I’ll be picking against them. So I hope the didn’t.

—
NYG- Depsite missing the first quarter, Plaxico Burress led the team in targets for the third straight week. He had 5 catches on 11 passes. David Tyree was active as well, with 5 catches on 6 targets. Amani Toomer had his biggest game of the year, with 8 targets, but clearly he’s Eli Manning’s third favorite receiver on this team. Jeremy Shockey went 6 for 9, but he didn’t get any red zone chances. Those went to back up Visanthe Shiancoe (two).

SD- The Chargers got back to doing what worked for them last year. Antonio Gates caught six more passes on six targets. And LT picked up 7 targets to go with his 21 carries and 1 pass attempt. Keenan McCardell saw his targets fall to just 4, but he made the most of them, catching each for a total of 80 yards and two scores.

Wednesday Football

ARZ- The Cards really struggled against a Rams defense they should have performed better against. Arizona failed to score a touchdown on four different drives inside the 30. Kurt Warner, despite throwing for 327 yards, had a tough time finding targets when it mattered most. After getting 15 throws in week one, Larry Fitzgerald only got 5 against the Rams. Anquan Boldin led the team with 9 in week two, including three looks inside the red zone. Poor Bryan Johnson has just 4 catches on 18 targets through two weeks.

Marcel Shipp had a solid game, but he was underused with just 12 carries. He did catch five of the six passes thrown his way. With J.J. Arrington struggling (he’s not a good fit for this offense), I’ve expected Shipp to take over the running duties for the Cardinals.

And just on a side note, there’s not a better home field kicker in the NFL right now than Neil Rackers.

ATL- Rising star Michael Jenkins had another strong game, he led the Falcons with 6 targets. But inside the twenty, Vick looked to Brian Finneran three times. Since there’s a good chance that Matt Schaub is starting this weekend against Buffalo, I expect Finneran to have another good week- especially if he gets matched up against the 5′9 Terrance McGee near the goalline.

CHI- Mushin Muhammad is going to led the way as long as he’s healthy, and the former Panther got 9 passes thrown to him on Sunday. But inside the 20, with a rookie QB, the Bears are a running team. On the season, Thomas Jones has 6 redzone carries and Cedric Benson has 1, while Orton has thrown just three passes (all against the Redskins).

DAL- Jason Witten picked up 6 targets on Monday night after just getting one pass thrown his way in week one. Terry Glenn was the Cowboys’ leader against Washington, with 9 targets, 6 catches, 157 yards (long of 70) and a score.

DET- Joey Harrington is still staring down his receivers and against the Bears, he focused on Roy Williams 13 times. Kevin Johnson tied Charles Rogers for second on the team with 9, and it looks like Harrington has a lot of confidence in Johnson- leaving rookie Mike Williams with very little playing time. Detroit threw the ball way to much against Chicago. What success they had last year, they did by running Kevin Jones 25-30 times and not the 8 he got in Chicago.

GB- With Javon Walker out, Terrance Murphy picked up 6 targets. Donald Driver was the team leader for the second week in a row, this time with 8. Also for the second week in a row, Favre threw to his backs heavily, giving them 13 passes (17 last week). Favre has thrown 44 passes in each of the first two games of the season. It’s going to be a long year. The Packers host 2-0 Tampa Bay this week.

MIN- Daunte Culpepper showed me a side of him I haven’t seen in years, as he threw 5 interceptions to the Bengals. Most of those came late in the game, and after they got down 14-0 early, I can only describe Culpepper as being on Tilt. I don’t know if he’s frustrated with the playcalling, but I sure would be. Losing Randy Moss didn’t have to be a big deal if the Vikings took the off-season to refocus their strategy towards the current strengths of the roster. That seems to have not happened. It’s like they’re still running the same exact offensive system.

Up until the very end of the third quarter, Minnesota’s plays were as unimaginative as they were unproductive. There were few or no slants, hitches, screens, draws, and traps called. Instead, it looked like: run, go deep, go deep, punt. But then towards the fourth quarter, things started to open up. The Vikings started throwing those shorter slants and quick hitches. They mixed in a few runs on pass looks, and they looked to exploit the first 15 yards from scrimmage more than the second. At home against the Saints this week, I expect this offense to finally produce.

That said, I just don’t see how Michael Bennett can be this team’s starting running back. He doesn’t catch the ball exceptionally well. He doesn’t run with exceptional power. He doesn’t really do anything really well except run fast. Bennett did start the Bengals game with a couple of great runs on the edge, but then he fumbled going up the middle and then fumbled again a few minutes later twice and it was all over from there for him and for Minnesota.

And I don’t know if Mewelde Moore is the answer for this season either. The Vikings really need more of a playmaker at that position They need someone like Lamont Jordan. So keep an eye on Ciatrick Fason.

Travis Taylor took in 12 targets against the Bengals, and he caught 7 of them. With Minnesota down 27-0 at halftime, rookie Troy Williamson got some action in the second half. He took in 2 passes on 4 targets.

NO- For as long Aaron Brooks in the Saints’ QB, Joe Horn is as steady a target as they come. After getting 13 targets on Monday night, Horn has had one game since the start of 2004 with fewer than 7 passes thrown his way. I’m also impressed with Donte Stallworth this year. He pulled in 8 passes on 12 targets against the Giants. For the year, Donte has 12 catched on 17 throws. For the second straight week, Ernie Conwell had two red zone targets and he has 10 anywhere targets on the season. Conwell is a big part of this offense.

NYG- Eli seems to really enjoy throwing to the 6′5 Plaxico Burress. After giving him 11 passes in week one, Manning threw 10 more Burress’ way on Monday night. But Burress has just 10 catches on those 21 targets so far this season. Jeremy Shockey went 5 for 6 and is now 7 for 8 on the year.

PHI- After relying to much on TO and BW last week (29 of McNabb’s 45 passes), with a big lead the Eagles were able to spread it around against the 49ers. Greg Lewis was clearly the #2 WR on Sunday, getting 7 targets over the entire game. Rookie Reggie Brown picked up 3, all in the second half. TO had 7, but the team leader LJ Smith broke out with 9 catches on 9 targets, 119 yards and a touchdown. Smith is still the only viable TE on this team and this kind of game won’t be out of the ordinary for the tight end. The Eagles’ offensive line did a real nice job protecting McNabb in the face of a very good SF pass rush.

SEA- Bobby Engram is still going strong, with 8 more targets on Sunday. Darrell Jackson was the team leader with 11, but Jerramy Stevens was again well featured, with 5 targets.

SF- Not much doing for the 49ers against Philly, but Arnez Battle is indeed the best receiver on this team. With 6 targets last week and 7 more this past Sunday, Battle has 9 catches on the year for 103 yards. Alex Smith did come in and run three plays before going off for a punt.

STL- Marc Bulger only had to throw 29 times against the Cardinals. Holt and Bruce are still the top pair, with Holt getting 7 targets and Bruce 8. Kevin Curtis has an ankle injury, and he was limited against Arizona, but he still got 4 passes. The Rams should look to strike through the air this week, as they host the Titans.

TB- With an early lead at home, the Bucs didn’t have to throw much. Joey Galloway’s numbers fell hard, with just 2 targets. Michael Clayton got 8, however, and with the 7 he got in week one, he’s Griese’s top threat.

WAS- Of course Santana Moss caught the two big ones, but he also pulled in three other of the 7 total passes thrown his way against Dallas. David Patten got 5 targets, but the production just hasn’t been there so far. There were no trips to the red zone this week, but Robert Royal still got 4 passes thrown to him and Chris Cooley got 3.