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Archive for the ‘06 Preview’ Category


    First Basemen
    With so many options, it’s pretty easy to find a guy who can hit at least 100-30-100.
    They key is getting one who can stay above .300 and if you’re lucky, go 120-40-120.
    Here’s who you can get the best value from:

    Todd Helton
    Now that he’s lumped into the mix with with Carlos Delgado and Paul Konerko and Lance Berkman and Travis Hafner, grab Helton before any of those other guys because after the 4 big names, Helton separates himself from the second tier because he’ll hit above .340. Before the break last year, Helton hit .288. He averaged .367 after. The Rockies will be better, and so will Helton.
    Paul Konerko
    Bringing Jim Thome over should help Konerko more than any other Sox hitter. The 30 year old hit .323 after the break and proved that he could put up numbers both at home and on the road. The last two seasons have shown that Konerko is a consistent 40 HR hitter and if he ends up at or above .300, he’ll be a top 5 1B.
    Mike Jacobs
    It’s too late to get Ryan Howard without everyone else noticing, but there is another young, big time power first baseman in the NL East. Jacobs hit 11 HRs in 100 ABs last season, which would translate to something like 60+ over an entire year. Of course that won’t happen this season or maybe ever, but like Howard, the kid has big time power.

    Second Basemen
    A position that continues to improve itself, but they’re usually aren’t many sleepers. Except:

    Mark Loretta
    I like Cantu and Giles and Figgins and Weeks, but after they are all gone, Loretta will still be around. He’s practically a lock to hit over .300 and score 100 runs because of where he plays and where he’ll hit. Loretta has played 1230 career games and still has a career average of .301. He should get back up to 40 doubles this season; bouncing pitches off of the monster.

    Short Stops
    The great thing about picking SS’s these days is that there are so many players who can give you a different set of numbers. There are also some great values:

    Jose Reyes
    Another year of 60 steals, playing under Randolph, plus 100+ runs and a near .300 average (finally). Yet, Reyes will still will probably be the 4th or 5th shortstop taken and that’s too low.
    Bobby Crosby
    Crosby turned 26 in January and comes into the season with 890 official at bats under him. This will be his 3rd full season in the majors, and he hit nearly 2.5 doubles for ever homerun last year. Expect that to land closer to 2:1 this season plus a .300 batting average. This looks like Crosby’s breakout year. He’s had a strong spring too.
    Jhonny Peralta
    The next big power SS, but will the average be there this season? Turns 24 in May, so I have doubts, but he’ll still challenge Tejada for the HR lead among short stops.
    Carlos Guillen
    Another guy that people seem to have forgotten after an injury filled 2005. Remember his first year in Detroit? .318 97-20-97 and 12 SBs? Before the break last season he was hitting .353 and making a run for the batting crown. And now he’s valued on the same level as Juan Uribe and Orlando Cabrera? Guillen went just 2/18 in the WBC, but he says his knee is fine. If so, he’s a steal.

    Third Basemen
    Many vote this as the worst position in fantasy baseball, and these two players are listed for lack of better options.

    Adrian Beltre
    Yes, it’s worth a shot. He’s fallen just too far. I’d say that a majority of people think that 2004 was a fluke. yet based where you can get Beltre this season, 100-30-100 is still a great deal. He’s still just 26, and if you’re trying to decide between him and someone like the 34 year old Melvin Mora, take Beltre.
    Chad Tracy
    Tracy hit 19 doubles and 9 homers at home last year (almost a 2:1 ratio) and 15 doubles and 18 homers on the road (better than 1:1). He kills righties (.324 23 of 27 HR last season) and if he earns enough playing time at third, he’s a steal. Tracy will bat in a prime RBI spot this year, and he’ll hit .300. So it’s just a matter of if he gets enough starts at third. It hopefully won’t be on the days that Brandon Webb pitches.

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    If there’s always a category you can count on picking up as the season goes along, it’s starting pitching. But at the same time, almost every winning team has at least 1 top level starter. The chances are very slim of you grabbing one of those off of free agency or in the late rounds of a draft.

    So out of the top 30 or so SPs this year, here’s who I like to offer the most value:

    Roy Halladay
    2005 Stats 141.7 12 108 2.41 0.96
    Remember that the injury that kept Halladay from contending for the AL Cy Young last year was not on his pitching arm, but on his left leg (tibia). The Jays went shopping during the off-season, but the pickup that will most directly improve Halladay’s season was catcher Bengie Molina. The two are reportedly off to a strong start this pre-season, and Molina brings with him a reputation as a solid game caller. Halladay is just 28 years old and he recently signed a contact extension through 2010. He’s thrown just 274.2 innings over the last two seasons and could be in line for his second career Cy Young award.
    Brandon Webb
    2005 Stats 229.0 14 172 3.54 1.26
    Last season was certainly a rebound for Webb, after a disappointing sophomore season in 2004. But this is the year I think Webb really puts it all together for the Diamondbacks. Arizona is a young team on the upswing of a rebuilding movement and Webb is very much the team’s pitching cornerstone. Webb’s a first rate ground ball pitcher and the addition of Orlando Hudson at 2B should be a huge help to the right. Left handed batters have always been Webb’s weakness (.298 average last season) but Hudson’s range and Conor Jackson’s improved defense should help bring that average down to a more manageable number.
    Barry Zito
    2005 Stats 228.1 14 171 3.86 1.20
    If you take out Zito’s April numbers from last season, he would have ended the year with an WHIP of 1.08. And his September was worse than his April. He didn’t get traded during the off-season ands says he wants to stay with the A’s. Zito’s one of those players who doesn’t put money as the #1 priority for where he plays. After reworking his mechanics prior to last season, I think Zito will put together a more consistent 2006 and end up in the top 10 or 15 of starting pitchers this season.
    Tim Hudson
    2005 Stats 192.0 14 115 3.52 1.35
    I really thought Hudson’s move to the NL last season would bring with it a return to an ERA in the 2’s and a WHIP below 1.10. That didn’t happen last season, but no one can be sure if that is because Hudson has moved into his 30s or if there were other factors involved (strained oblique). Hudson’s post All-Star Break numbers were 8-4 3.30 1.21. He struggled a little on the road and also fell victim to Atlanta’s bullpen on numerous occasions. At the very least, you can count of Hudson for 15 wins, but I think he’s got at least one more great season in him.

    Past the top names, here’s some names that should make your late picks winners:

    Rick Helling
    2005 Stats 49.0 3 42 2.39 1.16
    The legend of Mike Maddux continues with the 35 year old former first round pick. Helling will most likely start the season in long relief, due to some shoulder tightness this spring. But Sheets is out for opening day, and I really think Helling will be a good pickup sometime this season. In leagues like espn that do not track innings, middle relievers who put up good numbers are as valuable as any. Keep an eye also on Dave Bush, the man who will most likely take the 4th spot in the rotation. One or both of these guys will put up good numbers.
    Erik Bedard
    2005 Stats 141.2 6 125 4.00 1.38
    Speaking of pitching coaches, welcome to Baltimore Leo Mazzone. Forget about Kris Benson, the guy I’m looking at in Baltimore is Bedard. He’s the right age, 27, and showed at the beginning of last season that he can dominate (2.08 ERA in 60.2 innings before the break). Bedard is Canadian, and played for his country in the WBC, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he started a little slow. But Mazzone’s presence in Baltimore has to lead to at least one great season from an O’s pitcher. Right?
    Brad Penny
    2005 Stats 175.1 7 122 3.90 1.29
    Penny admits that he never felt right throwing his curve ball last season; after coming off a torn biceps injury in late 2004. He seems to be healthy this spring and could finally fulfill expectations. Penny posted a 3.06 ERA at home last season, so he’s at least good for a season of starts there.
    Javier Vazquez
    2005 Stats 215.2 11 192 4.42 1.25
    I’m not sure why Vazquez is ranking so low in drafts this preseason. He alternated good months with bad months last year but has moved over to the defending world champs; a team that wins games on pitching a defense. In 2 career starts at US Cellular, he has pitched 16.0 innings with a 2.25 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 16 Ks. Bank One is also known as a hitters park, so I’m not convinced that fantasy managers should be scared off so easily. Perhaps playing for Guillen will help smooth out Vazquez’s track record of inconsistency.
    Jeremy Bonderman
    2005 Stats 215.2 11 192 4.42 1.25
    It was just a season ago that Bonderman was everyone’s preseason darling. And since then, the only thing that has really happened is that the Tigers have become a better baseball team. Jeremy is still very young, and throw too many pitches to last long into games, but he greatly improved his walk rate last season and should be able to extend his first half numbers from last year (11-5 3.99 1.24) over an entire season. For a guy that’s been over-rated for years, this is probably the best position one can get Bonderman at for the next 5 seasons- if he can keep that WHIP under 1.30 that is.
    Brett Myers
    2005 Stats 215.1 13 208 3.72 1.21
    On the road last season, opponents hit .199 against Myers. And despite his struggles during the second half of last season, the 25 year old righty finsihed with solid numbers. There isn’t much sleeper value here, but I just had to mention Myers because of his live arm and team potential.
     

    Sure, adding Rick Helling to this list is mostly just for fun, and there really aren’t any names here that should come as a surprise. But for the most part, they all are guys who are coming into the year at a price below what the market should be paying. And that’s all that really matters.

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    FULL CATCHERS LIST - 27-29 CATCHERS LIST

    ON THE RISE
    Michael Barrett - CHC:
    Turned 29 last October; As streaky as they come; hit above .300 for three full months last year and below .235 for four full months; finished the second half of the season with a .292 average despite a .200 September; Worked out at CES this winter in order to improve defense; Barrett loves to catch and has turned down previous attempts to move to 3B; Member of Team USA 30 man roster; DOWNGRADE: career .255 hitter in April
    Brian Schneider - WAS:
    Excellent left-handed, contact hitter with limited power potential; known as a defensive specialist; Struggled to hit at home, but finished the season over .300 on the road; Coming off right shoulder injury that limited him in the second half of last season; If you’re in a platoon situation at catcher, Schneider isn’t a bad option to use away from Washington; Added to Team USA’s 30 man roster; DOWNGRADE: Signed a new 4 year, 16$ million contract this offseason; low run production totals
    Johnny Estrada - ARZ:
    Last year I was tipped off by Braves Beat to avoid Johnny Estrada and it paid off; Estrada ended up hitting just .214 against LHP last year; Park factor is in Estrada’s favor now, even though he’s 1/12 lifetime at what is being now called Chase Field; But more importantly, the NL West competition is light on left-handed starters: just Jeff Francis, Odalis Perez, Noah Lowry, and Shawn Estes fill out the division’s 5 man rotation so there is reason to hope- and owners will probably be scared off by Estrada’s poor 2005; the DBacks have depth behind the plate, so chances are Estrada will play around 100 games and sit out against lefties; he could be a real value .300 hitting catcher; He only got a 1 year deal with Arizona so he’s also playing for a paycheck
    Brian McCann - ATL:
    Best known for his Game 2, three run homer off of Roger Clemens in the 05 NLDS; PECOTA has him hitting .273 57-16-65 in ‘06, which really isn’t bad for a guy you can get off of free agency; DOWNGRADE: just turned 22; has yet to hit above .290 in pro career (3 seasons); capable backup (Todd Pratt) and hotshot youngster behind him (Jarrod Saltalamacchia)

    OTHER NOTES
    Look at Dioneer Navarro’s numbers last season against LHP and you’ll see just how far he has to go before becoming a regular threat.

    Yorvit Torreabla has a career .343 average in 14 games at Coors Field, so he may be worth a look after the season starts. But Torreabla has a lot of competition in Colorado, especially prospect JD Closser.

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    Full Catchers List - 27-29 Catchers List

    I again endorse the mlb.com fantasy baseball preview and as a result of the availability (for free) of such a complete research tool, my own preview goals here have taken a turn.

    Based on the list of projected starters at this position, here’s a look at some of this season’s factors that may not show up in a player’s linescore.

    ON THE RISE
    Victor Martinez - CLE:
    Not a question of if, but when should you draft Martinez; listed on preliminary roster for Venezuelan WBC team; hit .380/.449/.578 after the break last season, following a .236/.312/.380 first half; just turned 27 and is entering his third full MLB season; a .320 90-30-100 season very likely; DOWNGRADES: assuming he makes it through the WBC healthy, none
    Joe Mauer - MIN:
    Long heralded prospect entering his second full MLB season; still low power numbers (9 HR) but the 26 doubles he hit last year show room for growth; isn’t playing in WBC because he wants to stay healthy; DOWNGRADE: backup Mike Redmond is a proven veteran who also kills left-handed pitching; look for Mauer to sit frequently against LHPs as a result
    Ramon Hernandez - BAL:
    Signed a 4 year, $27.5 million dollar contract to play for the Orioles; there is no catching controversy in Baltimore, Ramon is the starter; contact hitter who’s power potential is limited around 20 HR per season; DOWNGRADE: turning 30 on May 20th; with new pitching coach Leo Mazzone and a young pitching staff, he may end up spending more time on the defensive side than offensive; no longer playing for a big contract
    Kenji Johnjima - SEA:
    Turns 30 in June; signed for 3 years, $16.5 million; speaks enough English to get by; hit above .300 in each of his last 3 seasons in Japan; Matsui hit .287 with 16 HR his first MLB season, I’d expect Kenji to be around .300 with 10-15 HR; DOWNGRADE: unknown

    ON THE DECLINE
    Benjie Molina - TOR:
    Coming off a career year; very injury prone; very slow; turns 32 in July; has a solid backup in Gregg Zaun; UPGRADE: under a 1 year contract with an option for ‘07; hit .393 against LHP last season
    AJ Pierzynski - CWS:
    Sox are coming off a WS Championship; signed a 3 year, $15 million dollar contract in December; hit a career high 18 HR last season but had just 21 2B, a career low; UPGRADE: Is still just 29, turns 30 in December
    Rod Barajas - TEX:
    Rod seems to be purely a power guy, when it comes to fantasy baseball; his .254 last year was a career high; turned 30 last September; Texas has another prospect, Gerald Laird, waiting in line; will probably split time with Laird this season

    LITTLE MENTION LIST
    Too old to be worth their draft value, too young to be counted on, or just too WYSIWYG to spend time on:
    Jason Varitek - Jorge Posada - Toby Hall - Ivan Rodriguez - John Buck - Jason Kendall - Jeff Mathis

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MLB.com Fantasy Baseball Preview

Wednesday, February 15th, 2006
    Just a special note here, mlb.com’s Fantasy Baseball Preview is a good one. They’ve been an interactive media leader over the last few years and what they’ve put together with this fantasy preview should be applauded. There’s no direct link to it, but you can find a launch link here.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview - Part I

Friday, February 10th, 2006
    There are a great number of factors to consider when searching for candidates for a breakout season.
    • Strong end to last season
    • Change of teams
    • Position opening
    • Health
    Those are just a few. But one of the most best ways to find players on the verge of reaching their potential is too look at their how much professional level experience they have coming into this season.

    Consider some of the great breakout seasons of recent years; Brian Roberts, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Lee, Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora. And even last year with guys like Chase Utley and Chone Figgins. Every season, prospects seem to be able to put things together as they approach the ’so-called prime’ of their careers.

    The Beach did a similar series of research last year, as we went through and wrote up a large portion of this list of breakout age candidates.

    This preseason, that same theme remains but things will be done a little bit differently.

    A series of lists has been compiled of a majority of the eligible players available in fantasy leagues this season. I’ve taken that list, which includes batting stats from the 2005 season, and added each player’s birth year to the table. On top of that, I’ve created a secondary list, again divided up by position, of all players who were born in 1976-1979. Give or take a few months, those are the athletes that are in their prime years of 27-29.

    In the coming month, the Beach will preview these players in more depth.
    In the meantime, help yourself to these lists as we approach the early days of Spring.

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