NFL | 2007 | Week Two Picks

Lots of consensus on who will win a majority of the week two matchups. And while that doesn’t necessarily mean they will, picking against them this early in the season isn’t a smart move unless you’re certain there’s a winner in the underdog. Tennessee, for example, looks like they’ll be able to keep the score close against Indy. But that doesn’t mean I’m picking them to win. I went against the champs last week, and I don’t think I’m going to again for a few months.

ATL at JAX - Jags
The Falcons defense seems to rise and fall on the health of DT Rod Coleman, and right now, it’s down. A lot of people are taking the Jags as their survivor pick this week. I don’t think either of these teams are that strong.

BUF at PIT - Steelers
My survivor pick. The Bills defense was young and small going into this season, but now they’ve lost two members of their secondary and a couple of linebackers. And JP Losman is still the second best QB on his team. This look like another 20 attempt game for Big Ben, so Willie Parker should be the most productive fantasy player.

CIN at CLE - Bengals
Leigh Bodden usually does a good job on Chad Johnson and the Bengals will have to protect Carson Palmer with a banged up offensive line. The Browns defense can play a little bit, and I’m just waiting for them to start playing like a .500 team. But not until Brady gets involved. 100 yards for TJ.

GB at NYG - Packers
Went GB here, as many seem to be, because of the QB issue. But even if Manning plays, the Giants defense still has a long way to go and Green Bay should be able to score their first offensive TDs of the season against them. The Packers defense, meanwhile, looks like a top 10 unit this season. They’ve upgraded at the safety position, and have a strong front seven, led by DEs Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins. In particular, Jenkins has been a force. They should both feast on the Giants’ OL, no matter who’s behind it. If you have Brandon Jackson, trade him after this game.

HOU at CAR - Panthers
I mentioned last week how much I like this Texans team, but I think this matchup is just too tough for them. Jake Delhomme was a star last week and the Texans leave CB Dunta Robinson matched up in single coverage against the best WRs too often. Steve Smith need bracket coverage, and the Texans probably won’t do it. Travelle Wharton is an underrated LT who can limit Mario Williams.

IND at TEN - Colts
The Saints paid the price for not keeping two safeties deep on every play. It seemed on the few instances they played single saftey coverage, Manning was burning them for it. You just can’t give them even one chance to take advantage of you like that. Let Addai run for 6 yards all the way down to the 10 if you have to, but don’t let Wayne or Harrison get singled up on the outside or it’ll be over in 5 plays. The Titans in the past have kept their safeties back and played a physical run defense with their front seven. They are loading up on DL with the trade for Bryce Fisher and will continue to be an underrated defense under Jeff Fisher. WLB Freddie Keiaho is a big part of this system, but even if he doesn’t play, the Colts should be able to win this game 20-13.

NO at TB - Saints
New Orleans let a lot of people down last week, namely themselves. They got outplayed, outcoached, and outdesired. Luckily, they get a once again nonexplosive Bucs team to trade 12 play field goal drives with. The Saints defense has to learn to play more cover two and stop the run with their front seven. The Bucs defense was solid against Seattle, but they no longer can play the matchup game player by player that Sean Payton will force them into. Either Devery Henderson or Reggie Bush will break a long one.

SF at STL - 49ers
Picking the Rams at home, as I did last week vs Carolina, is never a bad idea. But the injuries they’ve suffered on the offensive and defensive line so far this season are devastating. I thought Steven Jackson would be able to run on the Panthers’ small LBs last week, but as it turned out, he didn’t get past the line of scrimmage because of all the issues on the line. The Niners new secondary matches up well against Scott Linehan’s offense.

DAL at MIA - Cowboys
Dallas needs to work out their assignment issues in their secondary, as their pass rush wasn’t as effective as I think they expected it to be against the Giants. The absence of Terrence Newman last week wasn’t as bad as many think it was; the unit as a whole just wasn’t that good and they still don’t have a center field type free safety who can make plays for them in the backfield. Their offense, on the other hand, looks strong (even though they were playing against a confused Giants defense). Miami still can’t block anyone, and the new Dallas pass rush will get the results it expects to get. Jesse Chatman saw a lot of time in the backfield for the Fish last week. He even lined up as the HB in two back sets with Ronnie Brown. The loss of Jason Ferguson up the middle will hurt Dallas in the future, but probably not against this Miami offense as it is right now. When oh when will Marion Barber be a 25 carry a game back he deserves to be? When that happens, he ends up a top 3 fantasy back.

MIN at DET - Lions
Offense vs defense, but in this case, on the other side of the ball the Lions defense isn’t as bad as the Vikings offense. At least it shouldn’t be. A stong perimeter pass rush can disrupt a Martz offenese, but the Vikes don’t have that. Charles Johnson will continue his ROY campaign cause the Lions will probably run 15 times for 26 yards in this game.

SEA at ARZ - Seahawks
Shaun Alexander sure looked healthy last week, and that line isn’t as bad as was feared.

KC at CHI - Bears
Adam Archuleta was brought in to reunite with Lovie Smith, the man behind his early career success in St. Louis. With Mike Brown out, again, Archuleta will be counted on as the Bob Sanders / John Lynch playmaker for this defense. They’re still thin at DL, but the Chiefs are no threat to exploit that.

NYJ at BAL - Ravens


OAK at DEN - Broncos
This Denver defense finally has a chance to be a great one, if they can keep pressure on the QB. Two sacks of Losman last week were a good start, but neither came from a lineman. If Simeon Rice can play close to 100%, he’ll be the difference maker. The Raiders are a team that could easily go 8-8 this season. I love Ronald Curry but this week he’ll likely even out those gaudy numbers he put up against the Lions. Curry’s still a top fantasy receiver for this season. I’m looking to see how real the Cutler to Walker connection is in this game. Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the best corners in the game, and he helped limit Roy Williams to just 20 yards last week. Brandon Marshall should benefit from today’s matchup as a result.

SD at NE - Patriots
Tom Brady gets rid of the ball so quickly, the Chargers pass rush - that they rely on so much - won’t be able to make a steady impact on the Pats passing game. They’ll manage it better than the Jets did last week, who blitzed Brady play after play to little avail. I wouldn’t expect much offense from this game, unless the Chargers want to gamble more than they should on defense.

WAS at PHI - Eagles
Last week’s loss to Green Bay speaks more about how strong the Packers defense is this season than anything else. The Eagles were just out of sorts and faced a tough matchup in their first week out. The Redskins defense is much improved as well, but the Eagles have much more balance - provided they can get their special teams in order. The loss of Jon Jansen will take Washington some time to adjust to. Given the talent in Washington’s secondary, Brian Westbrook will probably end up the star of this game.