Archive for September, 2007

NFL | 2007 | Week Three Picks

Saturday, September 22nd, 2007

ARZ at BAL - Ravens
Anquan Boldin should have a good game against the Ravens secondary, but the Cards coming east with an underwhelming defense doesn’t sound good to me. Jon Ogden and Trevor Pryce are out for the Ravens, so anything can happen.

BUF at NE - Pats
The line on this game is close to 17 points. Wake me when Trent Edwards is getting snaps.

DET at PHI - Lions
One of these teams is 2-0, the other is 0-2. The spread favors one team by 5 points, but its the 0-2 team. How’s that work? The Eagles defense looks like its up against a wall with key injuries in their secondary. They are a different unit without Lito Sheppard and if Brian Dawkins is out too, the Lions can go 4 wide all day long. McNabb’s accuracy has been awful, likely a result of poor footwork stemming from his knee injury.

IND at HOU - Colts
Houston is a nice story and no surprise to me, but I don’t know how anyone can like the Texans here with Andre Johnson out. Their secondary is better but still suspect until they can get someone on the other corner who can play. Big game for Reggie Wayne. Freddie Keiaho should play and make an impact on defense. I can’t wait to see how Jacoby Jones plays in place of AJ. Jones is more of a perimeter guy, but he can be a big player there.

MIA at NYJ - Jets
The Dolphins run defense hasn’t been good and now they’re without Zach Thomas. Both teams are 0-2, and the Jets are the better team. Cam Cameron wants to run more, but the Jets run defense is improved form last season’s performance. I like Leon Washington here to have a big game.

MIN at KC - Chiefs
Back at arrowhead, with god knows who playing quarterback for the Vikings. KC gets Jared Allen back early from a suspension and LJ gets the 40 carries he wants against the stout Vikings front four. It won’t be pretty, but with Darren Sharper banged up, the Chiefs pass their way to their first win.

SD at GB - Chargers
For Green Bay, some minor injuries on defense are mounting, and this is a playmaking unit that doesn’t do a lot of interesting things scheme-wise so they need their guys at full strength. They have a solid front four and linebackers who can help limit LT and Gates. So watch for the Chargers WR to make themselves known this week against a banged up Packers secondary. Vincent Jackson has 80 yards and a score against the nicked up Packers CBs.

SF at PIT - Steelers
Alex Smith is still a better QB outside the pocket than inside, and he’ll be running from the Steelers blitz this week. But they way they rush the passer, there might not be room for Smith to get free. The Steelers run defense isn’t as good as its been in years past, so Frank Gore is still a good play here. But the 2-0 Niners arent in the same class as the 2-0 Steelers.

STL at TB - Bucs
It’s all about the Bucs pass rush in this game. They can get pressure on Marc Bulger. Tampa’s defense has turned over the past few years into a better unit against the run and not as good against the pass. So far this season, they’ve had a poor pass rush but will be up against an offensive line filled with injuries and guys playing out of position. The Rams moved Alex Barron from RT to LT but got burned on the RT side as they overcompensated protection to Barron’s side last week. And in their first two games, they’ve blown 13-7 first half leads in each. They are 0-2 and both losses have been at home, when they usually rack up the wins. So that’s an indication to me that this just isn’t their year. Michael Clayton is earning more playing time for Tampa and could have a nice game here with Ike Hilliard hurt.

CIN at SEA - Bengals
The Bengals pass protect very well, and have enough continuity on offense to play on the road in a hostile environment like Seattle owns. Glenn Holt played well filling in at the #3 WR spot for Cincy last week, and should continue to get snaps there with Chris Henry stealing cars. And the way the Bengals defense played last week, anyone on the Seahawks is a good play. I like Nate Burleson to score for the second straight week for his run after the catch/punt abilities. Cincy can’t tackle, but I think they’re offense will pull this one out.

CLE at OAK - Raiders
This year’s Oakland defense is proving that last year’s success was partly a mirage due to their lack of offense (and thus teams playing conservative against them). Derek Anderson coming off a career-best game, but one that stilled showed his flaws as a QB. He was barely pressured by the Bengals, who played mostly vanilla coverages behind a four man rush. On the few plays Anderson was pressured, he made poor decisions - often throwing in to traffic or largely missing his targets. Even without pressure, Anderson showed that he locks on to his primary receiver too much and will force throws there no matter what. Braylon Edwards made three key, circus-type catches in last week’s win that most receivers probably wouldn’t make. Without those three plays, the Browns likely lose. Anderson’s success last week was largely due to the incredible playmakers he’s surrounded by and the lack of pressure applied by the Bengals. With a week to prepare, I’d suspect any NFL team could see these flaws and find ways to exploit them. We’ll see if these Raiders are in fact a real NFL team.

JAX at DEN - Broncos
The Jags suck and John Henderson hasn’t practiced all week because of a concussion. The Broncos seem to have a little fate on their side this season. Javon Walker will again face a tough CB matchup so Brandon Marshall needs to make some plays here. The Broncos defense is still a better run stopping unit than they are against the pass, and that matches them up nicely to roll over the Jags.

CAR at ATL - Panthers
NFL Network’s playbook showed a nice example of how the Falcons may cover Steve Smith not with DeAngelo Hall, but use Hall 1 on 1 against the Panthers’ #2 WR and roll bracket coverage over to Smith’s side. That’s the only way to stop an offense as one dimenssional as the Panthers’, but the Falcons offense isn’t up to balance the effort out just yet. Someone else for Carolina will have to step up, and since Rod Coleman still isn’t ready to play for Atlanta, I’m saying DeShaun Foster has a big game.

NYG at WAS - Redskins
Chris Cooley could have 150 yards if Mattias Kiwanuka is covering him in this game. Mike Sellers scores a TD as well. The Giants are starting rookie Aaron Ross, which should help their struggling defense. But the strong ground game of Washington rolls over this mixed up Giants unit.

DAL at CHI - Cowboys
Offense vs Defense here, but on the other side, the Cowboys pressure defense matches up well against Chicago’s offense. Wade Phillips acknowledged how great Marion Barber is playing, but still backs Jones even though Barber is clearly the goal line back. Both are productive but its Barber who is better suited to play against this Bears defense.

TEN at NO - Saints
You’ve got to throw the ball downfield to beat the Saints, and that just isn’t the Titans’ game. New Orleans’ offense faces one of the best front seven units in the NFL but I think they’ll rally at home and on Monday night to avoid going 0-3. Duece McAllister has to start running with a more physical style again.

NFL | 2007 | Week Two Picks

Sunday, September 16th, 2007

Lots of consensus on who will win a majority of the week two matchups. And while that doesn’t necessarily mean they will, picking against them this early in the season isn’t a smart move unless you’re certain there’s a winner in the underdog. Tennessee, for example, looks like they’ll be able to keep the score close against Indy. But that doesn’t mean I’m picking them to win. I went against the champs last week, and I don’t think I’m going to again for a few months.

ATL at JAX - Jags
The Falcons defense seems to rise and fall on the health of DT Rod Coleman, and right now, it’s down. A lot of people are taking the Jags as their survivor pick this week. I don’t think either of these teams are that strong.

BUF at PIT - Steelers
My survivor pick. The Bills defense was young and small going into this season, but now they’ve lost two members of their secondary and a couple of linebackers. And JP Losman is still the second best QB on his team. This look like another 20 attempt game for Big Ben, so Willie Parker should be the most productive fantasy player.

CIN at CLE - Bengals
Leigh Bodden usually does a good job on Chad Johnson and the Bengals will have to protect Carson Palmer with a banged up offensive line. The Browns defense can play a little bit, and I’m just waiting for them to start playing like a .500 team. But not until Brady gets involved. 100 yards for TJ.

GB at NYG - Packers
Went GB here, as many seem to be, because of the QB issue. But even if Manning plays, the Giants defense still has a long way to go and Green Bay should be able to score their first offensive TDs of the season against them. The Packers defense, meanwhile, looks like a top 10 unit this season. They’ve upgraded at the safety position, and have a strong front seven, led by DEs Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins. In particular, Jenkins has been a force. They should both feast on the Giants’ OL, no matter who’s behind it. If you have Brandon Jackson, trade him after this game.

HOU at CAR - Panthers
I mentioned last week how much I like this Texans team, but I think this matchup is just too tough for them. Jake Delhomme was a star last week and the Texans leave CB Dunta Robinson matched up in single coverage against the best WRs too often. Steve Smith need bracket coverage, and the Texans probably won’t do it. Travelle Wharton is an underrated LT who can limit Mario Williams.

IND at TEN - Colts
The Saints paid the price for not keeping two safeties deep on every play. It seemed on the few instances they played single saftey coverage, Manning was burning them for it. You just can’t give them even one chance to take advantage of you like that. Let Addai run for 6 yards all the way down to the 10 if you have to, but don’t let Wayne or Harrison get singled up on the outside or it’ll be over in 5 plays. The Titans in the past have kept their safeties back and played a physical run defense with their front seven. They are loading up on DL with the trade for Bryce Fisher and will continue to be an underrated defense under Jeff Fisher. WLB Freddie Keiaho is a big part of this system, but even if he doesn’t play, the Colts should be able to win this game 20-13.

NO at TB - Saints
New Orleans let a lot of people down last week, namely themselves. They got outplayed, outcoached, and outdesired. Luckily, they get a once again nonexplosive Bucs team to trade 12 play field goal drives with. The Saints defense has to learn to play more cover two and stop the run with their front seven. The Bucs defense was solid against Seattle, but they no longer can play the matchup game player by player that Sean Payton will force them into. Either Devery Henderson or Reggie Bush will break a long one.

SF at STL - 49ers
Picking the Rams at home, as I did last week vs Carolina, is never a bad idea. But the injuries they’ve suffered on the offensive and defensive line so far this season are devastating. I thought Steven Jackson would be able to run on the Panthers’ small LBs last week, but as it turned out, he didn’t get past the line of scrimmage because of all the issues on the line. The Niners new secondary matches up well against Scott Linehan’s offense.

DAL at MIA - Cowboys
Dallas needs to work out their assignment issues in their secondary, as their pass rush wasn’t as effective as I think they expected it to be against the Giants. The absence of Terrence Newman last week wasn’t as bad as many think it was; the unit as a whole just wasn’t that good and they still don’t have a center field type free safety who can make plays for them in the backfield. Their offense, on the other hand, looks strong (even though they were playing against a confused Giants defense). Miami still can’t block anyone, and the new Dallas pass rush will get the results it expects to get. Jesse Chatman saw a lot of time in the backfield for the Fish last week. He even lined up as the HB in two back sets with Ronnie Brown. The loss of Jason Ferguson up the middle will hurt Dallas in the future, but probably not against this Miami offense as it is right now. When oh when will Marion Barber be a 25 carry a game back he deserves to be? When that happens, he ends up a top 3 fantasy back.

MIN at DET - Lions
Offense vs defense, but in this case, on the other side of the ball the Lions defense isn’t as bad as the Vikings offense. At least it shouldn’t be. A stong perimeter pass rush can disrupt a Martz offenese, but the Vikes don’t have that. Charles Johnson will continue his ROY campaign cause the Lions will probably run 15 times for 26 yards in this game.

SEA at ARZ - Seahawks
Shaun Alexander sure looked healthy last week, and that line isn’t as bad as was feared.

KC at CHI - Bears
Adam Archuleta was brought in to reunite with Lovie Smith, the man behind his early career success in St. Louis. With Mike Brown out, again, Archuleta will be counted on as the Bob Sanders / John Lynch playmaker for this defense. They’re still thin at DL, but the Chiefs are no threat to exploit that.

NYJ at BAL - Ravens


OAK at DEN - Broncos
This Denver defense finally has a chance to be a great one, if they can keep pressure on the QB. Two sacks of Losman last week were a good start, but neither came from a lineman. If Simeon Rice can play close to 100%, he’ll be the difference maker. The Raiders are a team that could easily go 8-8 this season. I love Ronald Curry but this week he’ll likely even out those gaudy numbers he put up against the Lions. Curry’s still a top fantasy receiver for this season. I’m looking to see how real the Cutler to Walker connection is in this game. Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the best corners in the game, and he helped limit Roy Williams to just 20 yards last week. Brandon Marshall should benefit from today’s matchup as a result.

SD at NE - Patriots
Tom Brady gets rid of the ball so quickly, the Chargers pass rush - that they rely on so much - won’t be able to make a steady impact on the Pats passing game. They’ll manage it better than the Jets did last week, who blitzed Brady play after play to little avail. I wouldn’t expect much offense from this game, unless the Chargers want to gamble more than they should on defense.

WAS at PHI - Eagles
Last week’s loss to Green Bay speaks more about how strong the Packers defense is this season than anything else. The Eagles were just out of sorts and faced a tough matchup in their first week out. The Redskins defense is much improved as well, but the Eagles have much more balance - provided they can get their special teams in order. The loss of Jon Jansen will take Washington some time to adjust to. Given the talent in Washington’s secondary, Brian Westbrook will probably end up the star of this game.

Saints opener, and Duece McAllister’s health

Friday, September 7th, 2007

Well done New Orleans.

If you started the game with a script, I recommend scripting the entire game next time.

For the first quarter, you moved the ball on offense, showing patience and creativity. You played cover 2 on defense, something most didn’t think you were going to do but said you needed to do with Jason David at right corner back.

It was basically a show of two defenses not letting the other team’s offense get anything easy down the field. Two deep safeties, keep everything underneath. And we’ve learned that if you don’t play Patriot-style games on defense - disguising and rolling strange coverages - the only other way to slow down Manning’s offense is to play that deep cover 2 the Saints opened the game with.

But, for some reason they stopped. Or just started mixing in the kinds of 3 deep and quarters coverages that will get you beat.

As for Duece McAllister, well, he’s healthy. And that’s not really a good thing. He’s dancing around tacklers again, instead of running through them like he did last year when he wasn’t 100%. And he keeps trying to run like Reggie Bush it’s not going to work for him, this healthy thing. Even Reggie Bush can’t make everyone on the field miss like he thinks he can. Run forward boys.

NFL | 2007 | Week One Picks

Thursday, September 6th, 2007

• IND at NO - New Orleans
  Statement game for one of the top 3 teams in the NFC. The Saints are hungry, after just missing a shot at the Super Bowl last year. They’ve upgraded all the areas they needed to address in the offseason, and they did so without spending a lot of extra cash. There will be very little defense in this game, just what we all want to see. And if there is some defense played, it’ll be on the side of the Saints - who have one of the best DE tandems in the league to go up against the Colts OL. Indy also has a young secondary that will be over matched by the Saints weapons on offense. Don’t think for a second Marques Colston is the only receiver on this team who can play. He’s just a possession role player. The Saints are filled with role players who do their job well. And that’s what makes them, together, such a good team, and my early pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
• ATL at MIN - Atlanta
  We know about the questions the Vikings have on offense, but Atlanta is working their way through a new offense and will be up against an experienced and stout defense this week. This could be a preseason-like 10-7 game. John Abraham is healthy, and when he his he’s a 3 sack a game kind of player. First round pick Jamal Anderson will play on the other end spot, and those two should be in the Tarvaris Jackson’s face all day. The Vikings’ defense forced 14 turnovers and scored four TDs during the preseason, but this is the new Joey Harrington!
• CAR at STL - St Louis
  Tough choice here, the Rams have a questions on defense, the Panthers have questions on offense. These strength vs strength / weakness vs weakness games always are entertaining. From PFW, “The Panthers are 2-3 in season openers under John Fox, with three of the games decided by three points or less.” Carolina is young and undersized at linebacker, should they may have problems with Scott Linehan’s the power running game. No team runs straight up the middle like the Rams do, but the Panthers held Steven Jackson was held to a season-low 27 rushing yards last season. St Louis’ defensive front seven is improved, their only questions are in the secondary. Luckily for them, the only real threat the Panthers have right now is Steve Smith. Keary Colbert is expected to start at the #2 WR spot for Carolina.
• DEN at BUF - Denver
  Buffalo’s defense is small and fast, so they may hold up against a similarly undersized Broncos’ offensive line better than some would think. The Broncos still struggle generating a pass rush, but JP Losman is the kind of QB who is always playing like he’s under more pressure than he actually is. Buffalo has a lot of new players on offense, and they’ll struggle their first game out against one of the best teams in the AFC.
• KC at HOU - Houston
  The Texans will begin their breakout 2007 season against what I think will be one of the worst teams in the AFC. With this one at Reliant Stadium, it could be a blowout. Yes, really. These Texans are going to be competitive.
• MIA at WAS - Washington
  Another new offense making its debut (Miami), the Redskins are returning a lot of players and coaches and should be able to take advantage of the Miami while the Dolphins are still working out the wrinkles. Jason Campbell looked strong in the preseason. But how bad was Washington’s defense last season? PFW reported their 12 turnovers forced was the fewest in NFL history and their 19 sacks was fewest in the NFL, six less than the Colts, which had the second fewest. Ugh. No place to go but up.
• NE at NYJ - Jets
  Since 2003, the Jets have gone 1-8 vs. the Pats (including the playoffs), and are just 1-7-1 against the spread. But these 2007 Jets have been bringing in players this week that were just cut by the Patriots. They are also returning a lot of players on both sides of the ball. I like the improved Jets defense to make the difference against the over-hyped Patriot offense and Rodney Harrison-less defense. New York’s receiving corps, a bit of a weak spot going into last season, is now a strength with the return of coles and Cotchery, the resurgence of Justin McCareins, and the emergence of rookie speedster Chansi Stuckey.
• PHI at GB - Philly
  Green Bay’s defense put up good numbers last year, but I’m not sold on them yet. This one could be another blowout possibility. The Packers real strength on defense (DEs) is also a strength on the Eagles offense (OTs). Philly will be able to open things up against a shallow Green Bay secondary and show off their new, healthy passing game. Kevin Curtis is a guy who’s flying far under the fantasy radar, but he’s a very good receiver who could thrive in this kind of an offense. He’s fast and reliable; the Eagles just need to get him running in space and he can be a Steve Smith-type short and deep threat. This Eagles defense could be their best one of Andy Reid’s era while the Packers offense has looked out of sorts all summer.
• PIT at CLE - Pittsburgh
  I just can’t tell if the Browns are ready to step their game up. They’ve showed signs this preseason that their defense is ready to become a force, but their secondary still has questions. And now their top corner has off field issues to deal with. There’s little doubt that the Steelers will win, but I have a feeling the Browns may make it close. Don’t worry about Willie McGinest being out for Cleveland. His best days are in his past. Antwan Peek has been strong for the Browns this preseason on the strong side, and Kamerion Wimbley is about to become one of the best pass rushing LBs in the league - if he already isn’t. A couple of stats from PFW: PIT has won seven straight vs. CLE. CLE has begun every season with a home game, posting a 1-7 record in home openers.
• TEN at JAX - Tennessee
  The Titans beat the Jags last season in the lone game Vince Young played in, but Tennessee had only 98 yards of offense and benefited from 4 Jacksonville turnovers. The Jags are counting on Dennis Northcut to provide #1 WR services, and while he isn’t a bad player, the lack of NFL talent the Jags have at this position is laughable. Vince Young played a lot this summer, and he looks like he’s been working on his throwing accuracy. He’s been sharp. Bo Scaife catches 15 passes and the Titans squeak this one out.
• CHI at SD - San Diego
  The Bears are playing their cover 2 defense with two run stopping safeties and a thin group of DTs; Tommie Harris isn’t 100% yet.
• DET at OAK - Oakland
  Josh McCown will get his chance to plant a flag into the starting QB position against a weak Detroit defense. Lane Kiffin’s new offense will be successful in the NFL and the Raiders have talent on that side of the ball to be a good team this year. 8-8 is not out of the question. Ron Curry is a star waiting to breakout - if his health can remain with him - and LaMont Jordan is an explosive straight ahead runner that many have seemed to have forgotten about. The Lions have quite an offense as well, but Mike Martz’s refusal to protect the quarterback will hurt him against this Raiders defense.
• TB at SEA - Seattle
  The Bucs barely left the state of Florida with their preseason schedule and now have to travel to the furthest NFL outpost in the West. All the free agent signings in the world can’t change the fact that Carnell Williams is a boom or bust running back who isn’t very effective in a offense that needs 4 yards a play each down. Tampa Bay finally addresses their declining defense this offseason, but the rewards won’t immediately be felt. Seattle comes in with a healthy Matt Hasselback and Shawn Alexander, as well as 4 great receiving options at WR.
• NYG at DAL - Dallas
  Yes, Eli has look good in the preseason. He was checking the ball down well, stepping into his throws, and hitting more receivers in stride than I’ve seen in the past. But this improved Cowboys’ pass rush will test the new Eli Manning early. The Giants were blown out of their first preseason game because of mental errors committed on defense, namely new strong side linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka (a converted DE). There’s a lot new on that side of the ball and the Cowboys’ potent weapons will take advantage of it. If Terry Glenn can’t play, Patrick Crayton is a great substitute at the #2 position behind OWens and Witten.
• BAL at CIN - Cincinnati
  The Bengals are is 4-1 in its last five games vs. the Ravens and have scored 123 points in those 5 games (24.6 avg). The Cincy offense looks like it’s ready to put things back together after a down 2006 campaign. Rudi Johnson has been running strong, and the WR duo of CJ and TJ had strong summer’s as well. If the Bengals defense can keep Willis McGahee from breaking too many long runs, they’ss be able to score enough to win this opener. The Ravens have lost their last four prime time road games, and have started five of its last six seasons on the road (1-4 so far).
• ARZ at SF - Arizona
  The 49ers could have been in the playoffs last season if they hadn’t lost both games against Arizona. Both teams enter 2007 much improved, and now make up one half of what is now a suddenly strong NFC West division. The 49ers have improved their defense, but they still lack a dominant from 3 in their 3-4 scheme and will struggle to pressure the quarterback. San Fran’s CB duo will matchup against Arizona’s WR duo, but the Cards new offense under Ken Wisenhunt should be able to run against the Niners. Expect a couple fancy plays from Widenhunt as the Cards open up their new offense on Monday night football. Two opposing trends in this game: ARZ has won the last four matchups between the clubs but since 2003, ARZ is 5-27 on the road.