2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Detroit Lions

Rod Marinellii - second season with Lions
Mike Martz - second season with Lions

Background:
10 wins, Jon? Unlikely. Top team in total offensive passing yards? Very likely.

In 2006, the New Orleans Saints averaged 281.4 yards passing per game; 1st in the NFL ahead of the Colts’ 269.2. The Saints had 183 drives last year; 35 more than the Colts’ 148. So really, the Colts had the best statistical passing offense per game, averaging just over 29 passing yards per drive. The Saints averaged 24.6 passing yards per drive.

What does this have to do with Detroit? Being the best passing offense in the NFL doesn’t always translate into being the top fantasy football passing team. Like the 2006 Saints, you need to not only have the weapons on offense, but also a reason to use them. This Detroit offense, led by Mike Martz’s now famous, greatest show on turf game plan, eats up garbage time yardage like few other monsters are able.

Philosophy:
We know Martz. We know his system. No coach loves to use four wide receivers like he does. And the Lions now have four who fit this system perfectly.

Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson will end up being a better duo than Issac Bruce and Torry Holt were with Martz. I personally think Calvin Johnson is the best receiving prospect to come out of college, ever. He quite literally has every tool a receiver could want, the intelligence to know how to use them, and a work ethic as hardworking as his attitude is humble.

Those two towering WRs will work the sidelines and run those 20 yard deep-in routes while Mike Furrey will assume a role he’s better suited for, the slot; with former Ram Shaun McDonald making an impact on the field as the commonly used fourth receiver.

According to Football Prospectus, last year’s Lions used 3 WR sets 61% of the time, fourth most in the league. They used 4 WR 22% of the time, second most in the NFL.

They ran the ball the fewest of all 32 NFL teams (31%) and even with the lead they threw the ball more in that situation than any other team (63%). And here’s a great example from FO of the role that Mike Furrey played last year, and why he’ll still likely be a key player in the 2007 season.

On first down, the Lions threw to Roy Williams 50 percent more often than Mike Furrey. On second and third down, they threw to Furrey 30 percent more often than Williams.

The Lions struggled last year in the red zone (-24.5% DVOA, 26th) and on third downs (-5.6%, 21st) but both numbers should improve dramatically with Calvin Johnson’s arrival and Furrey’s move to the slot.

Players:
For three straight years, 1999, 2000, and 2001, the Rams were the #1 offense in the NFL. They threw for 4580, 5492, 4903 yards in those three seasons.

Last years Lions threw for 4208, and considering the awful offensive line play they receive and lack of anything half as good as Marshall Faulk at running back, that’s pretty good. The 1999 Rams improved their yardage output 20% the following year, their second under Martz. So as the Lions enter their second year in Martz’s system, a 20% isn’t likely, but a considerable improvement - one closer to 10-15% - is still a significant one that can be expected.

That’s considering the addition of Johnson and improved their offensive line to a serviceable level, to go with the general improvement that goes with having another year in the same system.

20% added on to Kitna’s 2006 numbers project him to 5049 yards for 2007. Yikes. A 10% improvement ends Kitna’s season at 4628, which would have still led all quarterbacks in passing over the last two years. Of course, this is Jon Kitna. But remember that Kurt Warner is not really a top tier QB talent either. He never was. But he excelled in this system and there’s no reason to believe that Kitna can’t just because we all know he’s Jon Kitna.

Roy Williams saw 151 passes last year and caught 54% of them. Furrey saw 146 and converted 67%. Az Hakim saw the third most passes, but just 27. Corey Bradford saw 25. So if you take that top 4, you get a combined 349 pass attempts. Kitna threw 596 passes last year, but broken down by FO, 124 went to running backs, 59 to tight ends, and 377 to wide receivers. That adds up to 560 passing attempts (the discrepancy is likely due to throw aways, etc). So out of 560 real targets, 67.3% went to receivers. If you carry over that 377 to 2007, I predict Roy Williams will likely see 140, Calvin Johnson 110, Furrey 80, leaving 40 for the rest of the team.

Furrey’s 67% catch rate translates into 53 receptions for 2007, leaving him with a probably just under 600 yards for the season.

Roy Williams raised his catch rate from the mid 40’s % to 54% last season. Considering he’ll improve slightly based on the talent around him, his 2006 numbers should translate equally to this season when you account for the drop in passes he’ll likely to receive.

For Calvin Johnson, a 65 catch 1100 yard season is a likely starting point for projecting his rookie season. Torry Holt’s first season in St Louis was also Martz’s first as OC. Holt had 52 catches for 788 yards (15.2 avg) and 6 TD that year. Agreeing that CJ is already a better receiver than Holt was then, 60-65 catches makes for a bottom floor projection for CJ considering Holt’s numbers. A 55% catch rate on the 110 targets I expect CJ to receive, give him a 60.5 projected catch season as well. At 16 ypc, that’s a 968 yard season. At 18 ypc, 1089 yards.

When Anquan Boldin caught 101 balls for 1377 yards his rookie season, he averaged 13.6 ypc. Boldin is more of a possession receiver, so his ypc numbers will be lower than CJ’s. I bring up Boldin to make a point that rookie receivers on teams with bad defenses can really put up good numbers. Boldin made the transition to the pro game so well because he’s a former QB who approached the game like a pro since his FSU days. CJ has the intelligence to make an impact in the NFL right away too. And I personally feel that his 2007 numbers will guarantee at least a 1200 yard season. Randy Moss had 69 catches for 1313 his rookie year. CJ’s game in right in the middle of Boldin and Moss, so I’m going with 75 catches for 16.5 yards per catch giving him a 1237 season.