2007 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Green Bay Packers

Mike McCarthy - 2nd season as head coach
Joe Philbin - 1st season as offensive coordinator, 5th with team

Background:
The Packers began last December with a record of 4-8, following a crushing 10-38 home loss to the Jets. After that loss, the 2006 Packers rallied to string together four straight wins to help make their season not be the complete disaster it was destined to be under Mike Mularkey’s first year as head coach.

But when you look at how the Packers won four of those last four games of their 2006 season, you’ll see that it was done against a poor list of opponents and on the back of a rapidly improving defense.

In only their 30-19 win in San Francisco did Brett Favre have a good game, statistically. Ahman Green never went over 79 yards in either of those four contents. Donald Driver, meanwhile, was the go-to man for the first three games, catching 25 passes for 329 yards. Favre relied too heavily on Driver down the stretch last season mostly because Driver was the only consistent option for Favre to throw to downfield.

Football Prospectus ranked the DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value over Average) for the Packers’ offense in those last four games at: 16.2%, -55.6%, -24.6%, and 14.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, their defense’s DVOA for those four games was: -14.1%, -71.4%, -61.26, and -91.2%.

One of those wins came in the rain against the Vikings as Tarvaris Jackson made his first NFL start one to forget. Green Bay’s last win of the year was against the Bears, who were resting many of their starters for the playoffs. Another win came against the Lions, who were mired in game six of a seven game losing streak.

So how good can the Packers feel about 2007? They have a solid defense that should be stout against the run this coming season, but the offense will again rely on the production of youngsters in order to be competitive.

Philosophy:
The Packers are a zone blocking run offense that like to throw the ball down the field along the sidelines. There’s reason for optimism as the young offensive line of 2006 (both starting guards were rookies, Spitz and Colledge) should continue to improve in their second season together.

McCarthy will continue to call the plays and the team should improve their understanding of the offense based on the high number of returning players and coaches involved this system.

The Packers were the second worst team in the NFL on first downs and in the red zone in 2006 (based on DVOA). That poor number was a result in a pass-heavy offense that threw the ball on first down 53% of the time. The Packers were even pass-heavy when playing in the lead; throwing 50% of the time.

McCarthy expects to concentrate more on the run this season, but it remains to be seen whether he can stay true to that word, especially with the question marks at running back.

Players:
Driver was thrown 172 passes in 2006, second most in the NFL behind Torry Holt. He converted on 55% of those attempts for a career high 92 catches. Driver’s production has eclipsed 1200 yards in each of the last three seasons, so he’s been as consistent as any WR in the league. His catch total should drop based on the improved health of Jennings (below) and the addition of youth into this part of the depth chart.

Showing a unique ability to quickly pick up the offense as a rookie WR, Greg Jennings wasn’t able to return to his early season level after he sprained his ankle midseason. When healthy, Jennings was averaging about 5 catches a game for close to 90 yards. Obviously those numbers are too high to project as probable over 16 games (80 - 1440), but as a solid #2 option on a team that will struggle to match last season’s win total, 1000 yard seasons out of Driver and Jennings isn’t out of the question especially when you consider the depth chart at WR includes only Robert Ferguson and a slew of raw talent ( Jones, Martin, Clowney ).

In the backfield, McCarthy has made comments leading to believe he’d prefer to have a starting running back, but is comfortable with a rotation if needed:

“You’d always like to see someone jump up and grab a position, because I think when that happens, obviously productivity increases,” he said. “But once again, you want as much competition. It’s a long season, God forbid injuries are part of our game. So I’m very comfortable if it takes three, if it takes two, if it takes one. That doesn’t bother me at all. That’s the job of the coaching staff, to take advantage of the personnel.”

Vernand Morency, who has added about 8 pounds to his frame, is expected to get the first chance as starter, but already this season has raised doubts about his durability with an early knee injury. Morency is much more of a slashing runner, compared to the departed Ahman Green. Both are fast, but Green was punishing while Morency’s style is more elusive. And as a result, he’s struggled in the past to not only be healthy but also that consistent one-cut, zone blocking type runner.

Out of all the backs, Brandon Jackson is probably the best fit for this offense, but he’s young player who left Nebraska early and has been slow to develop so far this preseason.

Watching him run with the first team offense in their team scrimmage rebroadcasted on the NFL Network this week, Jackson showed the great ability to catch the football he’s be acclaimed for. As a runner, he has good vision, quick feet, runs low to the ground, gets skinny in the hole, and seems to always fall forward. He’s not particularly fast and doesn’t have a lot of moves in space, but looks like a reliable 4.2 yards per carry back who can line up in the slot and be a weapon out wide as well.

Rookie DeShawn Wynn is a power back out of Florida who could factor in near the goal line because of his size and running style. And Noah Herron’s versatility and reliability in pass protection will see him on the field on third and longs and in the two minute drill; thus limiting the amount of time Jackson or Morency will see anyhow.

It just doesn’t look like a good situation for fantasy owners. The passing game should still rule in Green Bay.