MLB pitchers who could close, rating pitches 1-15

Watching a pitcher like Al Reyes take over the Devil Rays closer role this season has been a nice surprise.

Reyes has comeback after missing the 2006 season because of Tommy John surgery he had in October of ‘05.

He does it with basically two pitches, which he has excellent command of and throws with purpose.

Over the course of Reyes’ career, he’s always been a very effective reliever who could get the first few batters out. His career stats show that from pitches 1-15 of each appearance, Reyes held batters to a .202 average, struck out more than half than he walked, and held an ERA at 1.90. From pitches 16-30, those numbers ballooned up to a 5.69 ERA and 1.39 WHiP. Since it should take a good pitcher about 15 pitches to get through an inning, these splits are useful when looking at what unproven closers could succeed in the role.

So that got me thinking about what other players are out there who have the ability to close out games. The ability to finish the final three outs against an opposing team requires more than just a high rating across a simple stat line. But if you look at the same lines for the top closers of today, it’s clear that the 1-15 pitch mark is as important as any.

Here’s a table I put together quickly that lists some career numbers for some of the top non-closing relievers in the game today. The table is sortable, and is listed by default in no real order. So click on the headers to sort.

PITCHER	IP	BB	K	ERA	WHiP	OpBA
Duchsecherer	150.1	24	124	1.68	1.18	.265
Calero	150.1	36	161	2.69	1.06	.223
Farnsworth	353.0	150	372	3.14	1.31	.235
Rodney	114.0	54	96	2.29	1.50	.261
Turnbow	151.0	66	154	3.16	1.18	.204
Shields	256.0	78	227	2.00	1.10	.218
Broxton	82.2	34	98	0.98	1.32	.237
T. Pena	48.0	15	29	0.56	1.10	.218
Betancourt	176.0	27	182	2.05	1.11	.246
Capps	99.2	11	66	1.99	1.04	.253
Rauch	105.0	40	90	1.89	1.29	.237
Soriano	106.2	31	106	1.69	1.04	.204
Wise	130.2	31	93	3.72	0.99	.210
Linebrink	246.2	73	199	1.64	1.22	.245
H. Bell	81.1	22	79	2.99	1.29	.268
Franklin	216.2	57	105	3.07	1.29	.262
Proctor	125.1	42	103	3.02	1.28	.248
Howry	371.0	122	296	2.09	1.26	.249
Qualls	166.1	49	117	2.71	1.29	.266
J. Smith	22.1	7	25	2.01	1.16	.232
Fultz	300.2	108	230	2.84	1.29	.252
Sherrill	81.1	36	81	2.99	1.19	.210
Marte	253.1	105	264	2.63	1.27	.236
Speier	339.2	94	278	2.20	1.17	.238
Otsuka	166.2	55	137	1.24	1.16	.222
Yates	81.1	36	75	1.99	1.27	.223
Meredith	66.0	10	50	1.23	1.05	.237
McCarthy	54.0	21	35	4.33	1.22	.225
Guerrier	103.1	26	55	2.79	1.11	.231
Villarreal	148.2	51	105	1.94	1.35	.264
Riske	255.2	95	224	2.64	1.28	.245
Heilman	130.2	35	107	2.07	1.09	.225
Seanez	319.0	142	323	2.65	1.40	.249
Wheeler	206.0	52	174	2.62	1.31	.270
Wuertz	123.0	54	127	2.34	1.17	.206
Rincon	221.1	88	226	1.99	1.27	.234
Spurling	126.1	28	56	2.42	1.11	.241
Donnelly	210.2	64	191	1.92	1.14	.225
Crain	144.1	41	74	2.24	1.12	.230
M. Gonzalez	123.1	61	129	1.31	1.29	.219

Some names are familiar and have already been given a chance to close. Some names some are not at all familiar and may earn a chance soon.

I purposely included a few like Capps and Otsuka to show what they’ve done to earn their roles. McCarthy was added because I think he’ll end up getting a chance to close games soon. But it’s the guys like Chris Spurling, Michael Wuertz, and Rafael Betancourt who may surprise us one day just as Al Reyes has.

Incidentally, the Phillies’ recent move to closer of Brett Myers, who’s career numbers in this category are 129.2 IP, 5.55, 1.38, .249, looks even more suspicious.