Archive for June, 2007

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Football Guys redesign

Wednesday, June 27th, 2007

footballguys.com, one of the better football news sites around, has redesigned their site and cleaned up their links and navigation considerably.

Looks like they’ve also added a blog, which is currently empty but will hopefully stay current.

The site looks great, and is filled with great content. I only wish they would have loaded their news aggregate with an rss feed.

It looks like everyone is redesigning for the 07 football season.

DeAngelo Williams and Carolina’s new blocking scheme

Wednesday, June 27th, 2007

Len Pasquarelli highlights a list of second year players he thinks have a good chance of breaking out.

Leading the way is Carolina running back, DeAngelo Williams.

But the notes also uncover an interesting fact about the Carolina offense. New offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson has made the team switch to a zone blocking running scheme.

“Most of the [tentativeness] is gone now,” said Williams, the 27th overall pick. “I mean, there’s a new [blocking] scheme to get accustomed to, but it’s a lot like what we did at Memphis, so I actually feel more comfortable. It’s like second nature for me. And just having been around the game for a year now, knowing the ropes, that helps any [second-year] player a lot.”

Pasquarelli later describes how while DeShaun Foster is the starter right now, Williams will likely get his chance to play.

Foster remains the unquestioned No. 1 tailback and is coming off a campaign in which he started a career-high 14 contests. But the former UCLA standout has a résumé filled with past injuries. He started just 10 games in his first four seasons and seems to be more productive when sharing the workload. Two other elements work in Williams’ favor: He shed five pounds and feels quicker at 212 pounds now, plus the zone-blocking scheme installed by new offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson dovetails very nicely with his one-cut running style.

Torry Holt’s return from knee surgery

Tuesday, June 26th, 2007

An interesting quote came out yesterday from PFW’s random quotes feature.

Rams WR Torry Holt, quoted on StLouisRams.com on taking this offseason to heal after knee surgery: “My first eight years in the league, I have been doing a lot of off-the-field stuff, trying to dibble and dabble in some broadcasting things and dibble and dabble in some different business stuff like that, trying to build my brand. This year has really given me an opportunity to step back and really refocus on the game of football. I’m excited about that. I’m enjoying the break because I haven’t really done anything. I’m just really trying to refocus on what’s important and that’s football and trying to help this football team win some more championships.”

Holt has surgery early this year to work on a problem with his knee that he had been dealing with since 2005.

For over a full year, Holt tried to play through it and strengthen the knee through rehab and training. But that proved to be not enough, and surgery was needed.

“That last game it had gotten to the point where it was aggravating me pretty good. But I was toughing it out. At the end of that game, I said, ‘I’ve got to go in and have something done.’ ”

Holt had a down year last season, catching only 93 passes for 1188 yards and 10 TDs. He did end his NFL record of six straight seasons with 1300+ receiving yards.

The Rams have more options in the passing game this year, with Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael now in the mix. But Issac Bruce will be 35 this fall, and teams are going to be focusing on Steven Jackson more this season.

SI’s top 25 WR list

Tuesday, June 26th, 2007

I’m not a fan of lists.

They should normally be ignored, but there clearly is nothing to write about that isn’t about Tank or Pacman these days.

So on the heels of Peter King’s ridiculous QB list last week, SI has gone two for two in the useless contest with Bucky Brooks’ Top 25 WRs for 2007.

Granted, this one doesn’t have anything as bad as King’s ‘intangible’ rating, but as soon as I noticed that Brooks stuck Marvin Harrison at 4th overall and Reggie Wayne at 11, I knew we were in for a treat. It’s also nice to see Hines Ward toiling down at 23, just one sport behind Reggie Ward.

MLB pitchers who could close, rating pitches 1-15

Sunday, June 24th, 2007

Watching a pitcher like Al Reyes take over the Devil Rays closer role this season has been a nice surprise.

Reyes has comeback after missing the 2006 season because of Tommy John surgery he had in October of ‘05.

He does it with basically two pitches, which he has excellent command of and throws with purpose.

Over the course of Reyes’ career, he’s always been a very effective reliever who could get the first few batters out. His career stats show that from pitches 1-15 of each appearance, Reyes held batters to a .202 average, struck out more than half than he walked, and held an ERA at 1.90. From pitches 16-30, those numbers ballooned up to a 5.69 ERA and 1.39 WHiP. Since it should take a good pitcher about 15 pitches to get through an inning, these splits are useful when looking at what unproven closers could succeed in the role.

So that got me thinking about what other players are out there who have the ability to close out games. The ability to finish the final three outs against an opposing team requires more than just a high rating across a simple stat line. But if you look at the same lines for the top closers of today, it’s clear that the 1-15 pitch mark is as important as any.

Here’s a table I put together quickly that lists some career numbers for some of the top non-closing relievers in the game today. The table is sortable, and is listed by default in no real order. So click on the headers to sort.

PITCHER	IP	BB	K	ERA	WHiP	OpBA
Duchsecherer	150.1	24	124	1.68	1.18	.265
Calero	150.1	36	161	2.69	1.06	.223
Farnsworth	353.0	150	372	3.14	1.31	.235
Rodney	114.0	54	96	2.29	1.50	.261
Turnbow	151.0	66	154	3.16	1.18	.204
Shields	256.0	78	227	2.00	1.10	.218
Broxton	82.2	34	98	0.98	1.32	.237
T. Pena	48.0	15	29	0.56	1.10	.218
Betancourt	176.0	27	182	2.05	1.11	.246
Capps	99.2	11	66	1.99	1.04	.253
Rauch	105.0	40	90	1.89	1.29	.237
Soriano	106.2	31	106	1.69	1.04	.204
Wise	130.2	31	93	3.72	0.99	.210
Linebrink	246.2	73	199	1.64	1.22	.245
H. Bell	81.1	22	79	2.99	1.29	.268
Franklin	216.2	57	105	3.07	1.29	.262
Proctor	125.1	42	103	3.02	1.28	.248
Howry	371.0	122	296	2.09	1.26	.249
Qualls	166.1	49	117	2.71	1.29	.266
J. Smith	22.1	7	25	2.01	1.16	.232
Fultz	300.2	108	230	2.84	1.29	.252
Sherrill	81.1	36	81	2.99	1.19	.210
Marte	253.1	105	264	2.63	1.27	.236
Speier	339.2	94	278	2.20	1.17	.238
Otsuka	166.2	55	137	1.24	1.16	.222
Yates	81.1	36	75	1.99	1.27	.223
Meredith	66.0	10	50	1.23	1.05	.237
McCarthy	54.0	21	35	4.33	1.22	.225
Guerrier	103.1	26	55	2.79	1.11	.231
Villarreal	148.2	51	105	1.94	1.35	.264
Riske	255.2	95	224	2.64	1.28	.245
Heilman	130.2	35	107	2.07	1.09	.225
Seanez	319.0	142	323	2.65	1.40	.249
Wheeler	206.0	52	174	2.62	1.31	.270
Wuertz	123.0	54	127	2.34	1.17	.206
Rincon	221.1	88	226	1.99	1.27	.234
Spurling	126.1	28	56	2.42	1.11	.241
Donnelly	210.2	64	191	1.92	1.14	.225
Crain	144.1	41	74	2.24	1.12	.230
M. Gonzalez	123.1	61	129	1.31	1.29	.219

Some names are familiar and have already been given a chance to close. Some names some are not at all familiar and may earn a chance soon.

I purposely included a few like Capps and Otsuka to show what they’ve done to earn their roles. McCarthy was added because I think he’ll end up getting a chance to close games soon. But it’s the guys like Chris Spurling, Michael Wuertz, and Rafael Betancourt who may surprise us one day just as Al Reyes has.

Incidentally, the Phillies’ recent move to closer of Brett Myers, who’s career numbers in this category are 129.2 IP, 5.55, 1.38, .249, looks even more suspicious.

400 carry seasons for running backs, and Larry Johnson’s potential holdout

Friday, June 22nd, 2007

More stats, courtesy of the NFL Network’s Total Access.

400+ rush attempts in a season - rushes per season, rest of career.

Year	Player	ATT	After
2006	Larry Johnson	416	?
1998	Jamal Anderson	410	118.6
1984	James Wilder	407	118.2
1986	Eric Dickerson	404	218.7
2000	Eddie George	403	275.5

And for Eddie George, we all know that even though he still got carries, his yard per attempt plummeted.

On the 1,102 carries George had in the four seasons following his 2000 Pro Bowl, 403 carry year, he averaged just 3.23 per attempt. That number was 3.90 across the first part of his career.

Jamal Anderson saw a similar thing happen to his ypc average. It was 4.18 up to and including his Pro Bowl, 410 carry season in 1998. For the rest of his career, not only were his total carries down, but his ypc fell to 3.58.

Eric Dickerson is probably the one example on this list who didn’t completely see his career fall apart after his 400 carry season. Perhaps that’s because it came in just his fourth year in the league.

ED had a 4.78 ypc before and up to his 1986, 404 carry season. He played 7 more years in the league (including three more Pro Bowl seasons from 1987-89), and his ypc average fell a bit off, down to 4.56.

Since Larry Johnson’s 416 carry season also came during his 4th NFL season, there is precedence showing LJ will continue to run well throughout his career, especially considering that ED was a little more physical runner than LJ has been so far.

Still, a hold out for anyone usually ends up in an injury-riddled season, so if you add that into trying to come off a 400+ carry season, I’d be staying clear of Johnson in 2007 fantasy leagues. Michael Bennett looks good though.

NHL Average Age - Team by Team Breakdown - 2006

Thursday, June 21st, 2007

The original NHL Average Age post for this topic took place back in February of 2006. And since it’s one of the more popular entry links to this site, it seemed nigh time to update the stats.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
TEAM	AVG AGE	ROOKIES	30+
Atlanta	29.7	0	13
Boston	27.5	3	8
Buffalo	26.8	2	4
Carolina	28.5	0	11
Florida	28.0	4	6
Montreal	27.7	4	9
New Jersey	28.5	2	13
NY (Islanders)	29.8	2	19
NY (Rangers)	28.4	2	9
Ottawa	26.6	0	3
Philadelphia	27.0	9	6
Pittsburgh	26.6	3	11
Tampa Bay	28.3	6	11
Toronto	27.7	3	11
Washington	26.6	2	5
AVERAGE	27.8	2.8	11.3

WESTERN CONFERENCE
TEAM	AVG AGE	ROOKIES	30+
Anaheim	28.0	2	7
Calgary	28.4	3	11
Chicago	27.2	6	7
Colorado	28.7	2	10
Columbus	26.9	8	9
Dallas	29.4	4	14
Detroit	30.3	5	13
Edmonton	27.0	9	10
Los Angeles	28.5	5	9
Minnesota	27.9	2	10
Nashville	26.8	1	9
Phoenix	26.8	1	9
San Jose	26.2	4	5
St Louis	28.8	4	12
Vancouver	27.9	1	9
AVERAGE	27.9	3.8	9.6

*Original stat source: nhlnumbers.com and CBC Forecaster

The Bucs, Gruden and Garcia, together at last

Thursday, June 21st, 2007

A nice, lengthy, article from Sal Paolantonio on Jon Gruden’s marriage to Jeff Garcia this offseason.

As someone who currently resides in Tampa, I think it adequately conveys the overall feeling here. This is pretty much it. Prove something now. At least show us the personnel moves Gruden and GM Bruce Allen have made together are going to pay off. Because most of it looks like the floundering of a fish out of water; gasping for air each offseason and falling short of breath each time around week 12.

Gruden’s right about Garcia when he said:

He’s a creative football player. There’s going to be six or seven plays that are not scripted in a football game that he’s going to make and for that we’re excited.”

The problem is the limits on the offense having someone like Garcia back there can bring. Good defenses can take what he does well away, and force him to do what he doesn’t do well. No matter, Garcia can turn in a winning season, but he’s a stop gap. He’s still a better stop gap than Chris Simms, or anyone else the Bucs have. Especially so when considering how Paolantonio writes about Simms not being physically ready to play. About how Simms’ mechanics are all screwed up.

But even if you call a Garcia offense limited, last year’s Bucs ‘offense’ was chained down powerless.

Gruden’s offense failed to gain a first down on 45 percent of its drives in 2006, the highest rate of three-and-outs in the league, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. And forget third and long. The Bucs gained a first down on only 9 percent of their plays on third-and-10-or-more yards — that was the lowest rate in the league and less than half the NFL average of 20 percent.

The play calling was all over the place last season, but that’s probably because Gruden knew he couldn’t line up and play with the guys he had on the field. He had a rookie 6th round QB who couldn’t complete a pass beyond 15 yards. He had a Carnell Williams running without the explosion he needs to get those 100 yards a game. He had a young offensive line and only one consistent receiver.

But this is it. This is really it for the Bucs. They’ve done well for themselves by finally addressing the defense in the draft. And if some of these offensive linemen they’ve been drafting for three straight years don’t start to compete at high levels, the coaching staff is directly at fault. Like everyone is saying, this is really it for team Gruden. We mean it this time.

pro-football-reference has a blog?!

Thursday, June 21st, 2007

I never knew, and I visit that site very frequently. Apparently they have a rather popular blog too.

I’ve added their feed to the left and also fixed whatever was wrong with the football outsiders feed.

Still can’t get the james mirtle (nhl) feed to work though.

Hey pro football reference, if you read this, love the site. Would love it more if it logged offensive and defensive coordinators career history as it does for head coaches.

Can Reggie Bush improve as a runner?

Thursday, June 21st, 2007

Brian Baldinger, on the NFL Network, had some interesting notes to give in talking about Reggie Bush.

Below, Baldinger talks about Bush’s lack of patience inside the tackles, and gives a couple of examples of where he can become a better runner.

The Network also gave a couple of interesting stats about Bush:

Last season, Bush carried the ball 155 times. On 52 of those carries, he was stopped for negative yards.

And his stats for his first 11 games were: 30.1 ypcarry, 39.2 ypcatch, 1 td.
Stats for Bush’s final 7 games: 43.6 ypcarry, 66.4 ypcatch, 9 tds.

Click below to watch the video.

Clinton Portis getting healthy, Ladell Betts earning raves

Thursday, June 21st, 2007

Some talk this week about the Redskins backfield situation, as Clinton Portis was reportedly ahead of schedule in his rehab to come back from a shoulder and knee injury.

“My shoulder feels really good but my knee is still a little sore from running around,” Portis said after Sunday’s practice. “My shoulder really hasn’t given me a problem. I am focusing on strengthening my quads right now so that I can get my knee healthy.”

Meanwhile, the Washington Post wrote a story about Ladell Betts that included the quote ‘Clinton is the starter’ three different times.

But one of those times featured some interesting words around it.

“It’s been mandated that Clinton is the starter, yes, but certainly we’ll find ways that accentuate the dynamic things that Ladell can do,” Saunders said.

That Saunders is Redskins offensive coordinator Al Saunders. It just seemed like last year, even when Portis was healthy, Betts’ running style is better suited for the Saunders offense.

ESPN’s Jeff Chadiha added a few notes on the situation as well:

“Having those two guys will give us a lot of flexibility,” Saunders said. “It’s comparable to the situation we had in Kansas City when we had Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. This offense is built around the running back, and we’re definitely not going to be one-dimensional.”

Saunders was especially complimentary of Betts, who he calls a three-dimensional back because of his skills as a runner, receiver and blocker. Saunders isn’t quite sure how he’ll involve both backs, but he plans to make the most of their talents.

Chris Brown’s deal with Titans

Wednesday, June 20th, 2007

If nothing else, running back Chris Brown’s re-signing with Tennessee earlier this week just points out how locked in the Bears are in featuring Cedric Benson as their number 1 back.

Sure, Lovie Smith has a bit of a history of running with two backs, but Chris Brown is from Chicago, and more than a chance to play at home, he valued a chance to compete for a starting job somewhere. In Nashville, he’ll get that chance. Apparently, he though it was a better chance than the one he was offered back home in Chicago.

Brown’s a good runner, but is a breakaway back with great size and burst through the hole. He runs standing straight up, and injuries have always kept him off the field. I don’t think anyone envisions Brown as a 25 carry back over 16 games, but he practically had all of 2006 off - playing behind LenDale White and Travis Henry - so he may be able to stay healthy this season for longer than most think he can.

Giants’ Jacobs slimmed down for 2007

Saturday, June 16th, 2007

I haven’t yet seen any official news about how much weight Brandon Jacobs has lost this offseason - in anticipation of the increased workload he’ll see this fall - but judging from the footage shown on the NFL Network’s coverage of the Giants’ minicamp activities, Jacobs has certainly slimmed down and gotten himself into pretty good shape.

I’d say that Jacobs has gotten himself down to about 250 pounds and if that number turns out to be true, it would be about 15 pounds lighter than his playing weight last season.

This northjersey.com article on Jacobs written back in May, discusses philosophical changes in the former Southern Illinois standout’s game, but nothing specific in regards to playing weight.

“Coach shouldn’t worry,” Jacobs said when informed of Gilbride’s concerns. “Me being the guy, things will have to change. I can’t play 16 games and play the same way I have been playing, but I can easily go back to making people miss.

“They needed help on short yardage and goal line, and I fixed that. Now I have to look to another part of my game, running around people and making them miss. I know how to make people miss.”

We’ll see what the final number comes in at, but no matter what it is, expect a Brandon Jacobs this season that few of us have yet to see.

Steven Jackson wants to break Faulk’s yardage record

Friday, June 15th, 2007

Rams running back Steven Jackson wants to break the single season yards from scrimmage mark set by his former teammate Marshall Faulk back in 1999.

The record is currently set at 2,529 yards from scrimmage. Jackson earned 2,334 last season under then first year coach Scott Linehan.

Jackson is entering his 4th NFL season, and his success last season was not a surprise to many. As I wrote in last season’s Rams’ offensive coordinator preview, Jackson needed only to manage his career 4.4 ypc average to have a very successful season. He did exactly that.

The Rams have learned quickly how to best use Jackson’s talents. But my problem with his recent proclamation to break the single-season yardage record is that as versatile as he is - especially for a back his size - I just don’t think he’s that versatile.

For one, he runs way to big and too upright to be expected to stay healthy over a full season. Last year was his first 300+ carry effort and usually backs who see an exponentially increased workload (like Jackson has over his first three NFL seasons) tend to break down a bit. Add in that general factor with Jackson’s overall, upright running style, and I consider SJ a serious injury concern this season.

But even if he can stay healthy for another 400+ touches this season, while Coach Linehan has been very good at getting Jackson to do what he does well, teams are bound to realize that when #39 is in the backfield, he’s not much of a threat to break long runs wide.

Jackson is not a very patient, hole selecting runner. He’s a fantastic guy to blast up the middle, because he approaches the whole quickly and with a great deal of momentum. When asked to run wide or even inside behind a pulling guard, Jackson just doesn’t have yet the makeup to be an effective runner. And defenses will certainly be aware of that as he enters his second season as the Rams’ full time running back.

The law of averages and MLB batting stats

Thursday, June 14th, 2007

Worst MLB batting averages, last 30 days, and who should rebound. So stop tracking who’s already hot, look who’s bound to get hot. Not all of these guys will, so read the notes too.

Julio Lugo (.131)
Lugo is a career .272 hitter who hasn’t hit much since being traded away from the Devil Rays last season. He hit .219 with LA in ‘06 and is at just .211 with the Red Sox so far this season. Lugo had been hitting leadoff all season, but was recently moved to the 9th spot. Perhaps his .263 OBP with bases empty has something to do with that.

Juan Uribe (.157) and Elijah Dukes (.167)
Both players with personal issues getting in the way right now.

Dan Johnson (.170)
The man who couldn’t be stopped since coming off the DL early now has 4 hits in his last 42 ABs (.095). There isn’t much history here to fall back on, but Dan is a career .257 hitter right now who’s currently hitting .256 for the season.

Pat Burrell (.171)
Pat the Bat has hit .174 since May began. He fell in May and June last year as well (.228 combined) and then ‘rebounded’ to hit just .263 the rest of the way. But we’re talking about a career .256 hitter here so unless you have OBP, it ain’t worth it. Pat’s post-June OBP last season was just under .400.

Craig Biggio (.182)
Biggio is a career .282 hitter but he finished last season with a .246 average and the year before that at .264. Stuck at .227 now, the long term upside isn’t there for the 41 year old. But he’s a career .310 hitter in July, so short term looks good.

Geoff Jenkins (.186)
Jenkins’ hot start (.372 April) has really caught up with him. Geoff hit .271 last year and is now at .266 so there’s not much upside here.

Vernon Wells (.192)
Hard to say what’s up with Wells, but he has just 1 HR since April 26. Historically, Wells does his best hitting in June and July, so it’s expected he’ll raise his BA 40 points and still have 20 HRs in him for the rest of the season.

Jeff Kent (.198)
How long have we been waiting for Kent’s age to catch up with him? Is this finally it? Probably not. Kent started with a .319 April, but has gone .219 since. His hot start leaves his upside for the rest of the season at around just 20-25 BA points.

Lance Berkman (.202)
Lance’s mind hasn’t been right this season, but his bat is finally coming around. He hit .244 through April and May but has started June much better (.286). His career numbers show that he’s much more consistent than this. There’s every reason to believe he’ll be raising his BA at least 50 points over the rest of the season.

Frank Thomas (.206)
The big skirt has had a few days of rest as the Jays have been visiting NL ballparks. He had a terrible May (.193) and has already started to raise his average back up (.250 in June). Once he starts getting DH at-bats, his numbers should rise.

Carlos Beltran (.207)
Beltran has been in a steady decline since a .356 April. He has a career history of alternating good months with bad, and his BB/K ratio is still where it needs to be so we should start seeing a rise very soon.

Andruw Jones (.214)
With Chipper Jones coming off the DL, Andruw’s in a perfect spot to get hot. He’s got about 50 points to get back in his average for the season - which translates to something close to 100 hits over his remaining 300 ABs.

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