NFL | 2006 | Playoffs - New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts - Preview

Key Stats
• Colts are now 9-0 at home this season
• Tom Brady has a 23-1 career record on turf
• The Colts have defeated the Patriots in their last two meetings, dating back to the 2005 season. They won 40-21 on 11.07.05 and 27-20 on 11.05.06. Both games were in New England.
• Patriots players reportedly have been passing around the flu.
After last week’s win in Baltimore, NFL Network cameras picked up Tony Dungy commenting that they just “played some old school Buc Ball”. It’s hard to imagine this Colts team looking more like the 1999 Bucs than the offensive powerhouse they have been over the years, but that seems to be the case. I’m impressed. The Colts are doing just enough to be different on offense. They are finally using a fullback again. They have worked out their offensive line slide pass protection issues. And they are changing their pace around; becoming a little less predictable. But make no mistake, this is a defensively minded team right now.

Last week against the Ravens, the Baltimore defense did their job. They got Manning to move out of the pocket, where he’s one of the least accurate QBs in the NFL. They forced 2 INTs (even though one was more like a punt), and Manning was fortunate to have 2 more sure INTs tipped by Ray Lewis just before they fell into the hands of a Raven teammate (McAllister, Reed).

Indy controlled the clock and game temp on offense, but with the Ravens’ safeties playing 20 yards off the line, Manning wasn’t able to strike for any deep scores. That combined with their continued red zone issues resulted in 0 touchdowns. How the Colts manage to get points when they enter the Patriots’ 30 yard line will determine their success today.

On defense for Indy against the Ravens, the Colts really benefited from a sleepy Baltimore attack. Every big play Baltimore had was followed up with a drive-killing mistake. It was a brutal performance for Billick’s team. The Colts ended up with 6 points off of Ravens turnovers but on both of the the turnovers the Ravens forced, they gave the ball right back to the Colts with a turnover of their own.

The Colts now have 2 games on tape for the Pats to study what their defense is doing differently that is causing this unpredictable success. Most notably, Indy is loading up against the run on first downs and forcing 2nd & 3rd and longs. The Ravens figured this out and in the second half they moved the ball much better when they came out throwing on first down. On 9 of their 12 first down plays in the second half, the Ravens passed. I’d expect the Patriots to open a lot of their drives today with 4 or 5 receivers wide.

My personal record this postseason has been devastatingly bad. I have no explanation as to why a team like Baltimore could not keep themselves from shooting their own foot off last week. Same with Dallas the week before. Both of those games should have been decisive victories for the losers. That said, I think the Colts take this one. It’s at home, which is huge for the defense. And the Pats defense is no where near as good as the Ravens’ D. The Colts will get the 24 points they need to win. New England’s injuries at safety will be the difference maker. Their on their backups and even their backups’ backups back there.