Archive for November, 2006

NFL | 2006 | Week 12 - Cincinnati Bengals

30-0 at CLE

The Bengals game against the Browns was a snoozer, so let’s talk about what the Bengals have done over their last three games and look ahead to Thursday night’s game against Baltimore.

At 6-5, Cincinnati essentially needs to win out their final 5 games to make the playoffs. If they get lucky, they can lose one game, but they shouldn’t be counting on it. After the Ravens, they host Oakland before traveling to Indy and Denver only to finish the season at home against the Steelers. That Dec 18, Monday night match up at Indy is probably their game of the year… if this one Thursday night isn’t already.

The last time the Bengals faced the Ravens was in week 8, when Cincy came out flat in the first quarter (fumble, int, punt, punt) and was never able to recover. They got the ball just once in the second quarter and scored on that possession and 4 more out of their 8 drives fromt he 2nd quarter on. But the Ravens played well with their lead and held on to the ball for 37:24 of the game and rode that and 2 Carson Palmer INTs to victory.

Coming into that game, the Bengals were averaging just 317 yards of total offense per game. They picked up 275 against the Ravens. In the three games since then, Cincy has averaged 439 total yards of offense and has scored at least 30 points in each of those three games.

Leading the charge has been Chad Johnson’s 573 yards and 5 TDs over those three games. He’s been targeted 32 times across that span and has pulled in 24 catches.

On defense, the Bengals have averaged just 83 yards per game against the run but that may be misleading because they have given up 980 yards passing (326 ypg) over that span. Cincinnati has increased the pressure they’re getting on the QB and have produced 6 sacks and 7 INTs in their last two games, but it’s obvious that this defense just does not have the players up front or in the secondary to win big games.

NFL | 2006 | Week 12 - Oakland Raiders

10-19 at KC

The league is catching on… these Raiders aren’t as bad anymore. Their defense is absolutely keeping them in games they shouldn’t be in; like this past week’s match at San Diego.

They’re doing it by mainly being able to get pressure with their front 4 and dropping 7 into coverage. The Raiders have an athletic group of linebackers and a physical secondary and they’re playing good football on that side of the ball right now.

Their run defense still isn’t particularly strong, but statistically it’s improved - averaging 149 ypg in their first five games and and 120 ypg in their last six games. That improvement is including two games where they gave up 200+ yards on the ground as well. It has helped them even out and in some cases win the time of possession battle, thus limiting the amount of chances opponents have to break plays as evidenced by how they limited LT to just 19 carries in week 12.

Also of note is how they limited San Diego to just 50 yards and possession of the football for just 8:39 of the first half.

On offense, the Raiders are still pretty much the same mess they’ve been all year. The offensive line blocks well enough in the run game, but are too slow and unable to pass off assignments to pass block effectively. Aaron Brooks’ return to the lineup hides much of the line’s ineffectiveness, as Brooks has spent most of his time making plays and buying time in the backfield. He’s not a very good progression quarterback, but he can definitely make things happen and is a good fit for this kind of train wreck offense. I don’t think that’s really a compliment, but credit should go to Brooks for making whatever he can happen back there.

On the flipside to that, Brooks’ 4th quarter INT in this game is evidence of exactly why he lost his job in New Orleans. The Raiders were driving to go up by two touchdowns when Brooks badly underthrew a pass to John Madsen that Quentin Jammer picked off. San Diego drove down the field and score on LT’s pass to Gates to tie the game.

Perhaps Oakland’s promotion of TE coach John Shoop as offensive coordinator will help improve matters in Oakland. They’ve got Houston at home this week, and two more winable games at home if they’re able to continue to pull things together.

NFL | 2006 | Week 12 - Denver Broncos

10-19 at KC

I touched on the Jay Cutler decision on Monday, but just to add a few notes as to what he’ll do to the rest of the Broncos’ offense: 1) he’ll create more lanes for the running game as defenses will have to respect the downfield passing game more, 2) help Javon Walker show he’s again one of the best receivers in the NFL, and 3) may actually open up more of the playbook for Denver since Plummer’s poor numbers from inside the pocket had probably limited the Broncos’ playbook already.

The Broncos are averaging 4.5 yards per rush and 132.8 yards rushing per game this season, but in two of their last three games they’ve been held under 65 yards rushing. Moreover, Plummer’s highest passing yardage total of the season came in week three and was only 256 yards.

NFL | 2006 | Week 12 - Review Notes

• Mark Clayton continues to improve and as noted here after week 10, he’s been a big weapon in the new Brian Billick offense.
• Cincinnati’s recent offensive upsurge has come mainly as a result of OC Bob Bratkowski’s taking back a majority of the play calling from Carson Palmer. Bratkowski has allowed for more downfield passing and Chad Johnson’s production has been risen dramatically.
• The Browns may give Jason Wright more carries down the stretch in order to bring more quickness into the lineup.
• Expect Ben Utecht to take up the slack that Dallas Clark’s injury will leave at TE for the Colts. Utecht was was already getting more looks before the Clark injury and now he’ll be moved into the top spot on the depth chart. Utecht has been targeted 36 times this season for 27 catches (75%) and 278 yards.
• The Colts are also expected to announce the signing of Ricky Proehl; a veteran WR with Super Bowl experience who would fit nicely in the slot on that offense. He’s doesn’t have Brandon Stokley’s quickness, but Proehl is a reliable receiver who has made big catches in big games.
• Just to review what Jay Cutler brings now that he’s the starter in Denver, there’s no doubt the former Vandy QB has a special set of physical skills. He also showed in the preseason he has the toughness to stand in the pocket and make throws at this level. The Broncos played enough to see what he could do against NFL talent and Cutler certainly proved he can play. The only question is if he can handle big game pressure, having not come from a big time college program. His demeanor also raises questions about his intensity but this being his rookie season, Cutler will get a pass on most of that as long as he executes the plays he’s supposed to. From what I’ve seen of him in college and in the preseason, he’s going to be great.
  
  Mike Shanahan mentioned in his press conference today that the offense won’t be cut back for Cutler. Shanahan said that Cutler wouldn’t be playing if it was thought that he couldn’t operate the regular gameplan.
• Rumors in full circulation now that Jon Gruden is considering a way out in Tampa.
• Even if Gruden stays, there will significant changes to the identity of the Bucs over this next off-season: particularly on defense. Simeon Rice has almost assuredly played his last game as a Buc, Shelton Quarles’ cap number will be too high to keep around now that Barrett Ruud is proving he can play. Derrick Brooks needs to rework his salary in order to stay, and the team may not be able to afford to keep Brian Kelly either. The Bucs haven’t drafted well on defense since Dungy left and the consequences are showing their full colors. The Bucs rank close to last in many defensive categories.
• The 49ers offensive line may finally getting credit for their part in Frank Gore’s successful season.
• Interesting story here on Washington’s Jason Campbell TD throw to Chris Cooley:

  Campbell, who had to call the play himself because of a helmet malfunction, initially looked for Brandon Lloyd. But Lloyd was covered on the sideline, and Campbell then turned his attention to Cooley across the middle.
  …
  And he has emerged as the most popular receiver during Campbell’s short tenure as the starting quarterback. Over the past two games, the tight end has eight catches for 147 yards and two touchdowns. No other Redskins target has more than 52 receiving yards over that stretch.

NFL | 2006 | Fantasy Playoff Preview II - Run Defenses

ESPN uses three categories in their rankings: attempts, yards, and touchdowns. According to those three stats, the Bengals, Jets, Texans, Bills, and Rams are the top 5 most favorable matchups for RBs.

But attempts can be a misleading category when you’re talking about averaging a whole season’s worth of numbers. It’s also important, then, to include yards per attempt.

In rushing yards per attempt, the Rams, Colts, Browns, Saints, and Titans are the top 5 most favorable matchups.

Football Outsiders uses their own stats to rank defenses and they list the Jets as the worst against the run, followed by the Bills, 49ers, Bengals, Colts, and Rams.

Just based on the games I’ve watched, I’d say that the Jets are definitely deserving of being one of the worst teams against the run. As noted the Colts’ run defense is getting better, but still isn’t great. And as the Rams’ injuries mount, they will be run on more and more since teams will be up on them more and more.

Tennessee scares me a little because even though the stats say they have one of the worst run defenses, they have shown to be a physical group at time this season and have some talent in their front seven. They’re giving up a 5th worst 4.7 YPC and ranked 4th in attempts against.

So here’s a table of what seems to be the 10 worst run defenses in the NFL and who they play in weeks 15 and 16. Listed in no particular order:



TEAM	WEEK 15	WEEK 16
49ers	Seahawks	Cardinals
Redskins	Saints	Rams
Jets	Vikings	Dolphins
Bucs	Bears	Browns
Titans	Jaguars	Bills
Bengals	Colts	Broncos
Colts	Bengals	Texans
St. Louis	Oakland	Redskins
Texans	Patriots	Colts
Bills	Dolphins	Titans


As you see the Dolphins and Colts are in the unique position of playing a team on this list in both weeks. So whomever picked up Sammy Morris is looking pretty good right now.

NFL | 2006 | Week 11 - Indianapolis Colts

The Colts run defense has been widely discussed publicly, but the trade for Anthony McFarland has seemed to have helped - both statistically and what I’ve seen in their games.

In the Colts first 5 games of the season, teams ran the ball 159 times for 834 yards (5.24 YPC). Since the McFarland trade, the Colts have played 5 more games and their opponents have run the ball 161 times. So this is a very effective point of comparison. Since the trade, they’ve given up 713 yards (4.42 YPC). So they’re still giving up yards, but not as bad as they were at the beginning of the season. And as Bob Sanders gets healthy again, expect their numbers against the run to continue to improve.

Back in October, after McFarland’s first game as a Colts, Michael David Smith at Football Outsiders wrote an Every Play Counts column on McFarland and adds support to the improving Colts run defense.

As for their first loss of the season, there’s not much new to note about the Colts. They don’t just struggle against 3-4 defenses, they struggle against 3-4 defenses with good players. OLBers who can rush the passer and stop the run seem to give them big problems. And Dallas clearly showed what being physical with their receivers can do to disrupt the passing game. The Colts offense is one of the least complex in the game. They line up with the same players in the same place on almost every play. They have little variation in formations and personnel packages. That makes it very easy to game plan them. So teams who execute well seem to always have success.

NFL | 2006 | Fantasy Playoff Preview I

Week 12 is officially underway. Have you looked at your playoff week matchups yet?

Defensive Stats Sorts:
Rush Yards per game
Rushing TDs allowed
Pass Yards per game
Passing TDs allowed
Takeaways per game
Sacks per game

Here’s a table of the ten worst ranking teams for each of these categories. The team at the top is the worst, then counting down to the tenth worst. Further review of these numbers later.



Rush YPG	Rush TDs	Pass YPG	Pass TDs	TO PG	Sacks PG
Indianapolis	New York Jets	Cincinnati	New Orleans	Washington	Washington
St. Louis	Cincinnati	Green Bay	Washington	Houston	Tampa Bay
Tennessee	Indianapolis	Atlana	San Francisco	New Orleans	Tennessee
New York Jets	San Francisco	Washington	Tennessee	Tampa Bay	Indianapolis
Cleveland	Arizona	Arizona	Green Bay	Seattle	Houston
Oakland	Tennessee	Minnesota	Houston	Green Bay	New York Jets
Detroit	Houston	San Francisco	Detroit	Minnesota	Cleveland
Philadelphia	St. Louis	Houston	Tampa Bay	Oakland	Detroit
Buffalo	New York Giants	Seattle	Cincinnati	Buffalo	Arizona
New Orleans	Buffalo	Tennessee	St. Louis	Philadelphia	Oakland

NFL | 2006 | Week 11 - Review Notes

Injuries were certainly the theme in Week 11.

Donovan McNabb, Aaron Rodgers, LaMont Jordan, Bertrand Berry were all lost for the season. In addition, Brett Favre, Issac Bruce, Marques Colston, Alex Smith (TE), Hines Ward, Najeh Davenport, Kevin Jones, Deshaun Foster, David Martin, Adewale Ogunleye, Troy Vincent, Juran Bolden, Robert Gallery all were injured in action yesterday.

Here’s a run down of the monday morning notes at Pro Football Weekly:


• The Patriots’ new field turf is expected to help their offense.

  First of all, QB Tom Brady has a 19-1 lifetime record on artificial turf. Secondly, the team has traditionally scored a lot of points on turf — with 38 points at Cincinnati, 28 points at Buffalo and 31 at Minnesota this season.

• The Ravens plan on continuing their recent passing surge, even though they have many cold weather, outdoor games left. As as Jamal Lewis’ big day yesterday will attest, a increased focus on throwing the ball has opened up the running game for Lewis.
• Colts’ owner speaks about Peyton Manning and his improved mobility this season.
• Reggie Bush has been working on his straight ahead running game.
• This is a great line about what’s going on in Detriot:

  As if pulling recently released Corey Bradford off a fishing dock in Texas last week weren’t bizarre enough, the Lions’ mind-boggling handling of their wide receivers took an even more ludicrous turn when Mike Martz revealed that he’s worked backup QB Josh McCown in running routes in practice and won’t hesitate to use him in special circumstances on game day.

• New York Jets:

  We hear that the Jets’ victory at New England helped solidify the players’ trust in head coach Eric Mangini. Word is many of the players were really impressed with the Jets’ game plan and that excitement was building throughout the week of practice leading up to the game. When things went just as Mangini had planned, his hold as their leader grew exponentially in their minds.”

• T.J. Duckett:

  Our Redskins moles say that RB T.J. Duckett, long in hibernation, has looked good in practice and could warrant some more carries than just in a short-yardage role. Duckett, a free-agent-to-be, would love the opportunity to improve his stock in what could be a weak RB market in 2007. He led the Skins in rushing in Week 11 with 26 yards on five carries.

One final note, from Gary Kubiak’s press notes from week 11:

(on rotating RBs Samkon Gado and Wali Lundy) “We’re just trying to make sure those two guys play right down the middle. If we think one of them is getting winded we’ll put the other one in. It’s easy when you’re doing something good to say leave that guy in, but we told ourselves we’d stay committed to playing two of them. And we’re going to try to continue to do that.”

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - New Orleans Saints

31-38 at PIT

Don’t slight New Orleans because they lost this game. The Saints offense traded blow for blow with what is still a good Steelers’ defense. They were driving to tie the game until Terrance Copper fumbled on the 26 yard line with 39 seconds yet.

They turned the ball over too much on offense and can’t stop the run very well, but this team has first round playoff loss written all over them. And getting there will be an accomplishment for them in Payton’s first season.

Drew Brees said in his post-game conference that the 2nd McAlister TD was not a designed play. The center just had the ball stick into the ground and it bounced to Duece. Brees was looking at the ground trying to find the ball and said he didn’t know what had happened until he looked up at the scoreboard and saw Duece in the end zone with it.

I can’t believe Jason Craft caught Willie Parker from behind. He didn’t really have an angle on Parker. He didn’t really have a head start. He just caught him. How fast is Jason Craft? I mean, he’s 30 years old!

Here’s another question: Has Charles Grant made a Pro Bowl yet? I’ve seen him make some very good plays this year and he was strong in this game as well. Turns out it’s a contract year for him as well. New Orleans was upset with Grant last year but he seems to be producing this season.

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - Minnesota Vikings

17-23 vs GB

The Vikings have proven they are one of the best run stopping teams in the league. Pat and Kevin Williams inside are monsters. If you get a chance to watch Minnesota play, keep an eye on what #94 does inside there. He is the cog that makes this defense as good as it is. That said, there are all kinds of problems with this defense, their secondary, and their unhappiness with the production of the offense.

Brad Johnson is turning the ball over an uncharacteristically high amount of times. He started 9 games last year and ended up with just 4 INTs on the season. This year, after nine game, Johnson has thrown 9 INTs and has fumbled 8 times, losing for of them.

I linked on Monday the note about Troy Williamson’s decline in Minnesota. It looks like Billy McMullen, a former Eagle with Brad Childress, has stepped into a key role for the Vikings. McMullen is a tall, lanky, 4 year NFL veteran who has proven to be a reliable option for the WR-starved Vikings. He’s a stop gap, but will probably get looks as long as Marcus Robinson is injured - maybe even after the way he’s playing. Bethel Johnson is also making some big plays with his time on the field. Johnson returned the second half kickoff for a touchdown, but it was called back on an illegal block penalty. He’s got such elite speed, the Vikings are finding ways to use him. And he hasn’t drop as many passes as Williamson has.

On 2nd and 7, late in the third quarter, Brad Johnson completed a pass to McMullen just short of the first down. So on third and one, the Vikings come out with a bunch-left formation and Williamson ends up wide open for the first down. But he read the zone late and moved out of his area at the last moment, leading to Johnson throwing the pass behind Williamson and incomplete. It was the first possession after the Packers went up 20-14 and the Vikings ended up having to punt. Somehow, I think McMullen runs that route properly and makes that catch.

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - Green Bay Packers

23-17 at MIN

The Packers tried to come out throwing against the Vikings, just like the Patriots did on Monday Night Football. But the Packers struggled early to make it work. They went three and out on their first drive. On the first two plays of their second drive, Green Bay ran the ball twice and got 2 yards on those 2 runs.

6 out of their next 7 plays, naturally, were pass plays. But when they got into the red zone, it was run, run, run, field goal. Strange play calling.

Eventually, it paid off though. When pinned inside their 5 yard line with 2 minutes left in the first half, Favre came out throwing and on their third play out he hit Driver for an 82 yard pass on what was only designed to be a 10 yard slant. Minnesota’s defense is clearly struggling.

Greg Jennings continues to play through his injury, although he doesn’t look 100%. Donald Driver, who could have had another TD if it weren’t for a dropped slant pass in the end zone, leads the Packers with 94 targets on the season. He got 11 for 6 catches in this game against Minnesota.

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - Baltimore Ravens

27-26 vs TEN

Mark Clayton is officially more dangerous than Derrick Mason. I’ve been a big fan of Clayton’s since he was in college and after what I saw at the 2006 Combine, I knew he’d be a real good WR. But hamstring problems during the preseason scared me away from him a bit this season. He worked his way through those and now leads the Ravens in targets (68) and catches (41). He is showing the top end speed and short area quickness to be a top NFL WR threat.

Clayton’s TD catch in this game was a gimmie, after the Titans’ blew their coverage and jumped a McNair pump fake into the flat. Clayton has a similar skill set to Marvin Harrison and could put up even bigger numbers in a more friendly offense.

In the last two weeks since Brian Billick has taken over the offense, Clayton has seen 13 passes go his way in each of those games. He has 68 on the year, so 38% of his targets this season have come since Billick has taken over.

The Ravens gave up on the run very early in this game. They weren’t very successful when they tried to come out running and were forced to put the ball up after falling behind. The Ravens’ offensive line gave McNair time to throw all day long. In 47 attempts, he was sacked just once.

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - Tennessee Titans

26-27 vs BAL

Some may have been impressed by the way the Titans built a 26-7 lead in this game, but it was basically smoke and mirrors. Vince Young played… about average. He looked real comfortable when throwing from the shotgun, but not so comfortable when dropping back from under center. That was, of course, a big concern of Young’s when coming out of college. Vince just looked like he was rushing his throws a little too much when dropping back.

Even on his TD run, it took Young three straight downs from inside the 5 to punch the ball in - and even on his third keeper replays showed that he probably was down before he got in.

The Titans’ defense is doing a good job at stopping the run, but they can’t generate a pass rush at all and it’s hard to tell if they’re secondary is any good because their front four have been giving QBs too much time to throw.

My guess is that the secondary must be bad because the Titans seem almost afraid to blitz. They rushed just their front four almost all game and the Ravens’ line had no trouble protecting McNair with 5.

The Titans’ second half possessions went: punt, downs, int, punt, punt, punt, and blocked field goal.

LenDale White is showing a good burst whenever he gets a chance to run the ball, but Tennessee has been very slow to involve him into the offense.

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - Jacksonville Jaguars

10-13 vs HOU

This game encapsulated just about every reason why I don’t like this Jags team. Their defense is too vanilla, and injuries in their front seven aren’t being compensated for enough by the gameplan.

Their offense is terrible - featuring now two inconsistent quarterbacks who don’t even look like they’ll be ever to win a playoff game. There’s no diversity of skill in their receivers - instead they’ve got three #2’s who aren’t quick enough to get consistent separation. One of those, Matt Jones, has serious questions still looming concerning his toughness (see the two drops on slant passes against Houston that led to Texans’ INTs) and another, Reggie Williams, has struggled to be a consistent target over his 3 year NFL career.

David Garrard faced a mediocre pass rush and a below average secondary in this game. He made a lot of bad throws and when he was able to make a good one, his receivers usually dropped it. The only two worthwhile skill players on this offense play the same position - Jones and Taylor. It’s a problem, however, that they are the team’s best runners and receivers.

For the season, none of the Jags’ top 3 WRs have a target to catch completion rate above 55%. You’ve got to at least rely one of those guys to be at 65%.

UPDATE: KC Joyner did a drive success analysis comparison between Leftwich and Garrard and Leftwich came out as being more effective. The distance between the totals was not dramatic, but it could be argued that the talent Garrard has faced hasn’t been nearly as tough as the talent Leftwich has lined up against. Either way, I’d rather have someone else leading my team. But if I had to choose between the two, Leftwich is still the better leader and the better quarterback.

NFL | 2006 | Week 10 - Houston Texans

13-10 at JAX

Houston won their first game on the road since December of 2004. They did it by continuing to use a quick passing game and David Carr’s mobility to their advantage. Coach Kubiak has done a good job in getting Carr to deliver the ball on time - and when the play isn’t there Carr is learning well when it’s time to move out of the pocket and try to make something happen.

Samkon Gado got the bulk of the carries in the second half, although he wasn’t particularly effective. He wasn’t bad either, but he did fumble once. By my count, all 17 of his carries came in the second half and many were in the fourth quarter. This Houston Chronicle article notes:

Gado, who weighs 226, is heavier and stronger than Wali Lundy, who goes about 211. Gado played his best game since being acquired from Green Bay at Sherman’s suggestion. Gado came to Houston for running back Vernand Morency. He carried 17 times for 67 yards. Lundy is still the starter, though. Expect to see more and more of Gado if he continues to run the way he did Sunday.

Andre Johnson leads the NFL in targets (98), and his catch rate (67%) is high up on the list as well. He only managed 3 catches on 11 targets against the Jags in week 10.

One guy who I hadn’t had a chance to watch play yet until week 10 was Owen Daniels. If you need a tight end, I’d pick him up. Carr looks for him and Daniels is a shifty, 247 lbs rookie TE out of Wisconsin. He’s already third on the team in targets with 37 despite only being a full time player for 7 of the team’s 9 games.