Archive for July, 2006

2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - San Fransisco 49ers

INDEX

Mike Nolan - Head Coach, 2nd season with SF
Norv Turner - Offensive Coordinator, 1st season with SF

Last year I wrote a length about Norv Turner in the Oakland preview. He favors using one RB heavily and tends to run a little more than he passes when things are going as they should be. Now in San Fransisco, I think those trends will continue as he leads a very young offense.

There may be concern about Turner after being fired from the top job across the bay, but this article says that Turner is ‘revitalized’ and I think he’s really in his comfort zone now as the SF OC.

Turner is saying the right things when he talks about how the offense will run under Alex Smith:

“There’s no question about his physical skills. We’ve been working out since mid-March in informal drills, and he’s made all the throws — short, medium, long. There’s no doubt in my mind that he can throw the deep ball.

“People think all it takes is a strong arm, but you have to be accurate, too, and Alex is very accurate. There’s a reason he was taken No. 1.”

There was another reason Smith struggled last season: The 49ers’ offensive coordinator, Mike McCarthy, didn’t utilize Smith’s running skills. Smith played out of the shotgun at Utah, but the 49ers only occasionally used that formation or even let Smith roll out.

Turner won’t make that mistake. He plans to use Smith’s athleticism by moving him out of the pocket.

“We aren’t going to be a bootleg team,” he said, “but there will be times when we run a bootleg. Alex has the ability to move outside and throw well on the run.

“People forget, but that’s a lot like the way Joe Montana was used at the start of his career,” said Turner, who was an assistant with the Rams when Montana started his 49ers career.

The 49ers made another good move to help Alex Smith by trading for Trent Dilfer this offseason. A former first round pick for a losing team himself, Dilfer has successfully mentored Matt Hasselback and Charlie Frye over the last three seasons and is a decent TV analyist in waiting.

With Brandon Lloyd gone, Antonio Bryant takes over as the team’s #1 WR. Bryant has a chip on his shoulder, and a troubled past, but he’s also very motivated to perform now that he’s starting with his third team in 4 years. Still, a 1000 season would be a nice surprise and I suspect it’ll be another year before we’re really looking at SF receivers as top fantasy options. Arnaz Battle will be a nice #2 on this team once they get things going to. He can make things happen.

At tight end, the 49ers are loaded with options with Eric Johnson and Vernon Davis. I would expect that Nolan and Turner will use Johnson as a traditional TE on the line of scrimmage and have Davis line up everywhere from WR to HB to a slot position and even along the line with Johnson. Davis is a capable and more than willing blocker; in addition to his tremendous physical talents. Turner turned Jay Novacek into a household name in the early 90s, and although Turner hasn’t done much with the TE since his days in Dallas, I saw Vernon Davis tear up the ACC long enough to know he’s a real unique talent that will be a superstar in the NFL if he’s healthy. SF also has second year pro Billy Bajema at TE, so as weak as they are at WR, they are stacked at TE. I don’t think this is going to be a big year for any receiver in this offense, but deep keeper leagues should grab Davis now.

The one position that will bring fantasy fortune this season is at running back, in part because the 49ers have a young QB and in part because their offensive line has the potential to carry this team. 2005 free agent signee LT Jonas Jennings and veteran C Jeremy Newberry will look to stay healthy as they welcome 2006 free agent signee Larry Allen; who came over from Dallas and is notorious for his strength and run blocking capabilities. San Fransisco is also counting on two high draft picks from the 2005 draft: David Baas, a versatile technician who can play all three interior positions, and Adam Snyder, a strong tackle who was forced to play out of position last year but should do well at RT.

Leading the pack to run the ball behind this line is second year RB Frank Gore, and in a sterile environment, he’s the hands down choice to run the ball in 2006. But Gore’s size, 5′9 - 215, combined with his hard running style and history of injuries almost guarantee that he’ll miss at least some playing time this season. So watch out for a slimmer and more focused Kevan Barlow. This is one battle that I’ll be following in the preseason and will update this post if it looks like Barlow has put the ego behind him and is playing football.

2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - Seattle Seahawks

INDEX

Mike Holmgren - Head Coach, 8th season with SEA
Gil Haskell - Offensive Coordinator, 7th season with SEA

Mike Holmgren has coached in 224 regular season NFL games, and 20 more postseason contests. In 14 seasons, he’s finished a year with a losing record just twice. And his career playoff tally is 11-9. Based on his consistent record of winning, and the youthful approach this Seattle team takes the field with, I have little concern about the Seahawks dropping off into a Super Bowl slump, as the Eagles, Panthers, and Raiders have all done.

In this his 8th season in Seattle - Holmgren spent 7 in Green Bay and it’s hard to now believe he’s been in SEA longer - the Seahawks have what can only be considered as the top offense in the NFC. It took the Walrus three years to get it turned around in Washington, as his offenses ranked 24th, 20th, and 21st in those first three seasons of 1999, 2000, and 2001. But then in 2002, Matt Hasselback began to put it together and led the ‘Hawks to a 6th place finish in total yards. They finished 5th in 2003, 9th in 2004, and 2nd last season.

Shawn Alexander set career highs last year in carries, yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns. Oddly enough, he had his lowest production catching the football since his rookie season. There’s no way he scores 27 TDs again. Alexander’s career TD total went from 14 to 16 to 14 to 16 and then to 27. I’d prepare for another 14. His career ypc average is a very nice 4.6, but Alexander has seen his carry total increase dramatically over the last four years: 295, 326, 353, and 370. That’s usually a huge indicator for trouble. I’m not questioning his toughness or desire, but there’s just a natural course in these trends that we see over and over again. Lots of carries, plus a big paycheck, plus a short offseason, plus changes on the offensive line, it all equals disappointment. Oh and I just remembered one other thing, the Madden ‘07 cover.

One guy I do like to have a good season is Nate Burleson. He’s the perfect receiver for this offense. Big, but not huge. Good speed, but not fast. Nice hands, great routes, and a solid understanding of the game. Burleson is also a great run after catch receiver, which is what the old west cost offense was all about.

The best season any Seahawks WR has had under Holmgren was Darrell Jackson in 2004 (87-1199-7). But back in Green Bay, Sterling Sharpe had back to back 100 catch 10+ TD seasons with Walrus and an even better comparison, Antonio Freeman, put up 81-1243-12 in 1997. I think Burleson’s 2006 season may fall in the area of 85-1300-10 and if it does, those are top 5 fantasy WR numbers. Working against him are two things: 1) the reputation he earned in Minnesota for not being a true #1 and 2) this being his first year in a new offense. I personally think he can be a #1a in this kind of offense, lining up opposite DJackson, but the new offense issue is a concern. On the bright side of that argument, both Nate and his QB have been working together all offseason.

Since I see the Seahawks passing a little more this season, I think Matt Hasselback is in for another good year. He had his best season to date last year, finishing with just 9 INTs and a completion % of 65.5, but his yards were low at 3455. With four solid receivers this season, plus Stevens and Mili at TE, I see Matt getting back to near 4000, especially if Burleson breaks out like I think he may.

2006 Offensive Coordinator / Fantasy Football Preview - St. Louis Rams

INDEX

Scott Linehan - Head Coach, 1st season with STL
Gregg Olson - Offensive Coordinator, 1st season with STL

Scott Linehan’s official Rams’ bio leads with two paragraphs that best describe what he helped do with the Miami Dolphins’ offense last season.

Under Linehan, the Dolphins went from 29th in the NFL in total offense in 2004 to 14th in 2005, which includes going from 31st in rushing to 12th. The Dolphins’ finished the season with six consecutive victories, improving their scoring from 16.2 points per game in the first 10 games, to 26.0 during the season-ending streak.

In 2005, the Dolphins’ offense had 26 plays of 25 or more yards, including seven pass plays of more than 50 yards, which tied for the NFL lead. The Miami offensive line also blocked for the running game to average 4.3 yards per carry, good for fourth in the AFC and eighth in the NFL. The line also allowed only 26 sacks, which tied for the fourth-lowest total in the NFL.

In fact, the Rams did such a great job at writing Linehan’s bio, there’s really no need for me to go back and provide stats to show just how good of an offensive coordinator he was. Okay, one more quote:

Linehan’s first NFL season was 2002, as he directed the Vikings to become the second-ranked offense in the NFL, leading the league in rushing. Prior to his arrival in Minnesota, the Vikings scored 290 points in 2001. With Linehan, the Vikings scored 390 in 2002, 416 in 2003, and 405 in 2004.

So that’s Scott Linehan. Who’s Gregg Olson? During the last two seasons, he was the quarterbacks coach for the Detroit Lions. That may sound a little oxymoronic, but the Rams’ official site again did their research: “Under Olson’s tutelage in Detroit, Joey Harrington had his two best seasons in terms of completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and passer rating of his career.” Olson was also the QB coach in San Francisco in 2001 when the 49ers went 12-4 and Jeff Garcia went to the pro bowl. Olson has worked with Linehan before, from 1994-96 at Idaho.

If Linehan brings the same kind of offense to St Louis that he brought to Minnesota and Miami (and there’s no reason to suspect he won’t), the team will be just balanced enough to favor what they do best. The Rams will still have a vertical, down the field attack this season, but the long awaited arrival of ‘balance’ should finally check in. Linehan knows the value of the run. In his four seasons as an OC, his offenses have run the ball 444 times (last year), 387 times (2004), 493 (2003), and 473 times (2002). Ranked among all NFL teams, those numbers turn into 17th, 28th, 7th, and 8th. It should be noted that the low numbers during the 2004 season took place when the Vikings lost just about every running back they had to injury at some point and the team admittedly got too pass happy. I think Linehan learned a lot during that 8-8 season and he won’t again fall victim to the Mike Martz illness.

Aside from speculating about run/pass ratios, there is talk coming out of St. Louis camp that the offense the Rams will run this season will be more simplifed (but not simple), more player friendly, and more quarterback friendly. Martz was well known for his distaste for audibles, but Marc Bulger will have more flexibility this season. His numbers will climb back up to 2004 levels (4000 yards, 20 TDs).

With Marshall Faulk out, Steven Jackson will be a top 10 running back if he can stay healthy enough to play in at least 13 games.

Jackson, who had arthroscopic knee surgery after his final season at Oregon State and following his rookie year with the Rams, said, “First time in three years I actually had an offseason. I feel pretty good now.”

Jackson comes into the season with a career 4.4 yards per carry average. He only had 20 or more carries in a game 3 times last season (all Rams wins) and averaged 5.5 ypc in those three games. In two other games, he carried the ball 19 times and had only 3.2 and 3.5 ypc in those contests, so the key to success isn’t just the amount of carries, but instead the consistency. In Miami last year, both Williams and Brown averaged 4.4 ypc, so that seems to be a pretty accurate prediction for Jackson this season. Give him 320 attempts and you get 1400 yards and at least 10 TDs. Just make sure you get Tony Fisher too.

Linehan is used to having a featured receiver in his offense, so Torry Holt’s numbers shouldn’t fall off too much with the change in systems. Issac Bruce is nearing the end of the line and this article certainly makes it sound like he’s role this season is more mentor than playmaker. Kevin Curtis, Shaun McDonald, and Dane Looker are all good receivers, so I expect Holt to catch around the 100 balls he’s used to catching, and Curtis, Bruce, McDonald to each be in the 40-50 catch range.

The Rams also drafted a couple of tight ends who will make an impact on the field, but probably not on the fantasy football scene just yet.

One other important note that will make this offense better is the addition of a few free agents on the defensive side of the ball. St Louis signed DT La’Roi Glover, LB Will Witherspoon, and defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. Their improvement from 30th last season will result in a more balanced attack as well.

2006 NFL Combine - Video - Defensive Backs

Video Library

Kelly Jennings, Tye Hill, Antonio Cromartie, Calvin Lowry, Daniel Bullocks, Darnell Bing

2006 NFL Combine - Video - Linebackers

I’ll be adding NFL Combine clips to the video library this week.
Last night, I posted footage from linebackers Chad Greenway, A.J. Hawk, Abdul Hodge, and Ernie Sims.

Training camps are about to start, and soon after I’ll resume the NFL Offensive Coordinator Previews.

Batting Averages After The All Star Break

Mark Teixeira
Hard to figure what’s going on here. On June 14, I referenced an article about Mark describing how he and his hitting coach had discovered a flaw in his swing. Since that date, Teixeira has gone 23 for 94 (.245). His BB/K ratio, which for his career is near 1/2, was 5/21 between June 14 and the break. But with batters in scoring position, he was 8/20 (.400). The law of averages says that Mark will pick it up in the second half. I’d say if you already have him on your team, what could you possibly trade him for at this point? Keep him, and hope he turns it around.

Eric Chavez
A career .293 hitter after the break, Chavez is always a good pick up for the second half of the season. This season, however, Chavez has been “bothered by tendinitis in both forearms and assorted other maladies“. He hit just .240 before the break. August is traditionally his best month, so with a trip to the DL still possible, now is never a better time to grab the A’s third baseman if you’re in a risk all position.

Todd Helton
It’s been a disappointing and troubling season for Helton, but the Rockies 1B hasn’t finished a season below .300 in any of his 8 full seasons in the majors. Helton hit .348 in June and .347 in April. The only reason his average is so low is the .233 month of May he had - which is attributed to the mysterious illness he suffered. The 40 HR power potential seems gone, but Helton hit .367 after the break last year and I suspect he’ll finish this season with a .330 average and 20-25 total HRs. That turns out to be some very strong 2nd half splits.

Jonny Gomes
The Rays’ DH looks like a .265 hitter to me and right now he’s at .250. A road trip to NL parks helped Gomes get some much needed bench time during June as he struggled to break out of a long slump. In 8 July games before the break, Gomes hit .273 and added a homerun. I don’t expect anything crazy, but a .280 average and 12 homeruns from now until the end of the season isn’t bad.

Jimmy Rollins
It’s easy to remember the second half Rollins put up last season. His 2005 streak actually started in June, when he hit .304; followed by a .313 July, and a .402 September. Only an abysmal .188 month of August ruined an above .300 season. This year, Rollins again started slowly but put up another strong month of June. Rollins career splits show that he’s steals about 20 bases before the break, and 20 bases after the break. Add that to a career .281 second half average, and he’s a good pick up at his current value (.259 BA)

Aramis Ramirez
Derrek Lee was out from April 20th to June 24th. Over that stretch, Ramirez hit:
215AB 57H 11HR 36RBI 15BB 16K for a .265 average. Since Lee’s return, Ramirez has picked it up:
59AB 17H 3HR 11RBI 5BB 10K for a .288 average. Ramirez’s career splits are evenly distributed between before and after the break, but he does have streaky months. He’s been a +.300 hitter the previous two seasons; something tells me that his current average of .259 won’t stay that low for long.

Randy Winn
Winn is a career .286 hitter who has averaged .298 after the break over his 9 year career. More notable is that over the last three seasons, after the break Winn hit .330 in 2003, .294 in 2002, and .354 last season. A .297 average this past June showed promise of another second half surge, but those banking on it may be worried about a 9/39 first week of July.

Richie Sexson
I wouldn’t expect too much return here, but Sexson is a career .266 hitter who has hit .285 after the break and is at just .218 so far this season. I’d expect at least .265 and 15-20 HRs.

Jhonny Peralta
There aren’t many stats to look back on for Peralta, but he really turned it on over the last two weeks. Since June 15th, Peralta is 31/93 (.333) with a .581 sluggng percentage. Jhonny has struggled this season with runnings in scoring position (.221); a spot he did well in last season (.302). His numbers after the break last season were similar to his numbers before. Peralta finished the 2005 season at .292 with 24 HR and those numbers were probably a little bit lucky.

Juan Pierre
Another player we can track with and without Derrek Lee in the lineup. Without Lee, Pierre was 58/246 (.238). Since Lee’s return: 28/66 (.424). On top of that, Pierre for his career is a .320 hitter after the break (.288 before). Pierre is easily one of the top value players to have going into the season’s second half.

Jorge Cantu
It’s probably too late to steal Cantu now, but this guy can really hit. In case someone you know doesn’t think so, get him. There’s no way his average ends up less than it is right now (.275) and with the lineup the DRays have, Cantu will drive in plenty of runs for a 2B from the 3-4-5 spot he’s been in all season.

To finish things off here are some links to search queries to share. Since 2000, the best hitters for the month of July, August, and September.

Taking things one month at a time, here are the top names since 2000 for the month of July:

Ichiro Suzuki .342
Juan Pierre .342
Luis Castillo .334
Todd Helton .333
Magglio Ordonez .331
Placido Polanco .330
Derek Jeter .329
Albert Pujols .328
Johnny Damon .326
David Ortiz .325
Lance Berkman .321
Gary Sheffield .320
Moises Alou .319
Randy Winn .318
Omar Vizquel .317
Edgar Renteria .315
Jeff Bagwell .315
Ivan Rodriguez .314
Alex Rodriguez .311
Shea Hillenbrand .310

Baseball Daily - Thursday

• Video of Carl Crawford stealing home.

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• Dioneer Navarro sat on Wednesday, following a terrible car accident that he and his family were involved in.

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• Also in those notes, Tyler Walker is out for the season. So far, Brian Meadows has been doing a good job at closing out games for the DRays.

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• Ron Belliard is excelling in the #2 spot.

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• Dustin Hermanson is on the road back to Chicago.

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• Chris Reitisma is officially out for the season.

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• Ben Sheets is making progress, and looks to be back by the end of July.

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• Good news on Chipper Jones’ foot injury.

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• Eric Gagne was hospitalized with lower back pain.

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• Jon Lieber will return to the mound on Friday.

Carl Crawford should be an All-Star cause he can steal home

The best left fielder in baseball stole home Wednesday night against the Red Sox.

And rumor has it that Ozzie Guillen is going to pick Magglio Ordonez to take Manny Ramirez’s spot on the All-Star team. I don’t expect better from Guillen, but he’s an idiot. Cause he’s an idiot.


I do regret my tivo not letting me go back more than a half hour to record the fly ball he caught off Kevin Youkilis that bounced off the Trop B ring and made CC change directions and sprint 15 yards to his left to make the out.

By the way, Crawford is the first MLBer to steal 2nd, 3rd, and home since Eric Young did it on June 30, 1996.

Baseball Daily - Wednesday

• Josh Hamilton was re-instated last Friday, and had this to say recently:

  “There’s no way I should be in the shape I am in as much as I abused my body unless God wanted it to be that way,” Hamilton said. “I was down to 180 now I’m at 230. My injuries are all better. I am not worried about breaking down soon.”

• Matt Clement had a setback.

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• Matt MacDougal earned a save on Tuesday in AAA.

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• Freddy Garcia is working to make adjustments in order to help limit stolen bases.

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• Chris Burke hopes a special shoe will help his sprained left foot. He should be able to play soon.

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• Jeff Francoeur is frustrated with pitchers throwing at his head.

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• Ben Sheets threw 45 pitches yesterday and the Brewers will decide today what’s next for him.

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• The Cards are looking to get rookie Chris Duncan more at bats.

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• Juan Pierre is hitting .447 since Derrek Lee returned.

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• Dave Roberts is back with the Padres.

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• Ryan Wagner is still struggling, even in AAA where he has a 6.56 ERA.

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• Ramon Hernandez expects to return tonight.

Baseball Daily - Independence Day

• Brendan Donnelly is having neck problems that is limiting his throwing motion.

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• Rich Harden still isn’t ready to throw until at least another week.

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• Vernon Wells returned, but Alex Rios is still in the hospital.

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• Shin-Soo Choo has been recalled to take Jeremy Reed’s place in center.

  “We went with the hot bat in Triple-A,” Bavasi said of Choo, who was hitting .327 with the Rainiers but .452 in his last 24 games.

• Corey Patterson has turned things around:

  Patterson credits his turnaround to working on his mental edge more than fundamental skills, something the Orioles coaching staff helped him with in Spring Training.

• Juan Encarnacion returns.

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• Jose Valverde is heading to the minors.

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• Rafael Furcal was moved to the 7th spot in the lineup.

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• Ryan Klesko update.

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• About Scott Kazmir, cross posted in the swamp:
  Had the pleasure of sitting 7 rows behind home plate again last night to watch Scott Kazmir pitch. He’s not as good as Johan Santana, but he’s damn close.
  
  The change and the slider had Ortiz looking foolish all night and when Varitek picked up the sombrero, we made sure to let him know it. He went back to the dugout with the best expression on his face.
  
  A day after being named to the all-star team, with about 20 family members in attendance and one of the largest crowds of the season on hand, Kazmir came up with a big effort in a big game. And he did it with a big smile on his face too. It must suck for Boston to be dominated by a high school pitcher like that.
  
  As for Tampa, for those who bash and haven’t been by lately, the team and the fans are turning around. So many people I talk to say that at some point they vowed to never attend another game as long as Namoli was the owner. This season, attendance is up 20%, the crowds during BOS and NYY aren’t as one-sided in favor of the visitors, and the Rays fans who do show up are beginning to wear team colors, cheer when things are happening and when things are about to happen, and overall they try to make the place not so friendly for opposing teams and the loudmouth fans they tend to bring.

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RSS Feeds

A new feature has been added.

Goto this page, which is also part of the top navigation (’Feeds’), to view a list of news sources.
Just click on each one and see their most recent stories.

This list will continually updated, as I find more time and more feeds.