Archive for April, 2006

2006 NFL Draft Recap - Green Bay Packers

2006 Draft Picks

No team, not even the Texans, had more holes to fill coming into this year’s draft than did the Green Bay Packers. And with 12 picks, perhaps no team has improved themselves as much as Green Bay. 12 picks is alot, and it’s two more than than what franchise mode on Madden will let you have. 12 picks: two in the second, two in the third, two in the fourth, two in the fifth, and two in the sixth; to go with their 5th overall in the first and the 253rd overall (out of 255) in the seventh.

While quantity does not always equal quality, I think the Packers did themselves very well. Of course, they got A.J. Hawk, the player who many think has the highest floor of any other pick this year. But their second round pick, offensive lineman Daryn Colledge is a versatile talent who can step in and play right away. He’s more of an athlete than a mauler, but Colledge’s technique is sound and at the Senior Bowl this former Boise State star showed he can play against the best of this year’s draft.

Another guy who will probably play right away for Green Bay in 2006 is linebacker Abdul Hodge. This former Iowa Hawkeye is one of those hard to find three down inside linebackers who’s aggressive enough to play the run and quick enough to cover the middle of the field. Combined with Hawk, Green Bay picked up two LBs that they can plug in right away and leave on the field until the Brett Favre comes on.

To address the loss of Javon Walker, Green Bay took three wide receivers this year: Greg Jennings, Cory Rodgers, and Will Blackmon. Jennings, selected 57th overall, is a polished and proven producer. He’ll most likely earn a starting job this coming season because he’s got great hands and runs good routes. Rodgers had a poor Combine, but is said to have a history of production behind him. Blackmon is the guy who’s a more natural DB that has been working as a WR for the last two years. I think he’ll end up on the defensive side of the ball where he’s better suited, but if the Packers need him to, Blackmon can catch passes too.

Yet, out of all those picks, there’s none I like better than Green Bay’s 5th round, 148 overall selection of Furman quarterback, Ingle Martin.

Here’s a quick rundown of what Martin has done:
• Started 27 games at Furman, going 21-6
• Won 3 straight Tennessee state championships in High School
• As a redshirt freshman, went 7/10 for 96 yards as a QB at Florida, backing up Rex Grossman
  Also caught 2 passes for 14 yards and ran 11 times for 51 yards
  Averaged 35.2 yards per punt on 46 attempts
• Started 4 games as a sophomore at UF until replaced by Chris Leak
  Went 47/77 for 654 yards in those games with 3 TDs
• Didn’t lose a year of eligibility since he transfered to a D-1AA school
• Threw for 2.959 and 20 touchdowns his senior year, finishing 11-3 and as the 3rd ranked team in 1-AA
Martin’s nfl.com bio says that he did not line up under center much at Furman, but this 2004 Pitt article notes:

The Paladins utilize a number of offensive sets — including a version of the winged-T — and he is usually taking snaps under center as opposed to the Gators’ shotgun.

Also, Martin’s espn.com bio says that he:

…isn’t fundamentally sound, he makes some poor decisions and he is inconsistent. With all that in mind, Martin is worth the risk in the final two rounds of the 2006 draft.

I didn’t see any of those ‘fundamentally sound’ problems in these Combine clips. Martin was one probably the most impressive QBs at Indy, after Cutler.

The nfl.com bio seems to clear things up. They write:

He has very good technique at times, but when he loses focus, his footwork gets sloppy and it hinders his passing.

Since almost everyone agrees he isn’t ready to play in the NFL right away anyhow, I don’t see how the ‘weaknesses’ are anything that good coaching can’t work with.

Martin was not at the Senior bowl, but he did throw the ball very well at the Combine. His short and intermediate throws were very impressive and Martin showed he can get the ball out quickly and on time. He’s very athletic- ran a 4.68 40, 4.17 short shuttle at Combine and also had the top ball speed at 62 mph- and in addition to throwing passes, he has experience running, catching and punting the football at the collegiate level.

Martin is exactly the kind of player the Packers can take a chance on. I am not sold on Aaron Rodgers’ ability to play championship level NFL football, and Martin can come in with very little pressure on him and also no immediate time-table to perform.

2006 NFL Draft - Mario Williams or Reggie Bush

Back in January, after the Rose Bowl, I wrote about why Reggie Bush should be taken before Vince Young.

In light of Friday night’s news that Mario Williams is the 1st overall pick, I think it’s important to renew the argument that the running back position is the best position to have the best player.

And perhaps more pointedly, the NFL Network recently replayed a program on Barry Sanders and in it I found an interesting quote that is relevant to the Texans’ decision to pass on Bush.

Before Sanders was picked by Detroit, he had some reservations about going to a run and shoot offense. As a result of those concerns, the following is what was said between then Lions head coach Wayne Fontes and then Heisman Trophy winner Barry Sanders prior to the 1989 NFL Draft:

Fontes: Barry, you can gain 1500 yards for this team.

Sanders: Yeah. But what if I want to gain 2500?

And therein lies my problem with Houston passing on Bush. Sure, Coach Kubiak is confident he can use the Denver-style run system to produce a 1000 yard back, but the only time Denver was a championship team was when they had a Hall of Fame running back. Sure, they can get close to 1500 yards with Dominick Davis, but why would they pass up a chance to get a guy who can do things few others can?

The Texans say their decision was based on taking offense over defense, and that’s a sound philosophy. But you get seven rounds to draft. And you’ve got to take Bush #1 overall.

Baseball Daily - Thursday

• Baseball Musings has a link to a link about why Jeff Francoeur isn’t doing so well right now. In sum, he’s young and still too aggresive at the plate.

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• Baseball Musings also has an interesting table that charts the ERAs of stikeout pitchers, separated by decade, since the 1900s. The table shows that pitchers who strike out more than 3.1 per 9 innings have traditionally had an ERA about a half point lower than those who strike out less than 3.1 per 9 innings. It seems pretty obvious, but what is interesting to me is the consistency over 100 years of baseball.

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• Hot hitting Chris Burke started at shortstop last night for Houston. Burke is .440 is just 25 ABs this season. He’s played in 15 games, but has had more than 1 AB in a game just 5 times so far. Burke is a former 1st round pick (10th overalll in 2001) who hit .270 in 148 post-break at bats last season.

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• Rich Harden left his start early Wednesday with back spasms and will be evaluated again today.

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• Ken Griffey Jr is eligible to come off the DL on Friday, but the Reds are likely going to take his return slowly. Griffey will also most likely be rested a couple times a week.

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• Is A.J. Burnett taking his money and running?

  “I have no timetable,” Burnett said after last night’s 8-2 win over the O’s. “I have none. I wish I could tell you, but I don’t (have a schedule). We’re going to rest it, we’re going to rest it, we’re going to rest it and then when I pick it up (and throw), I’m going to pick it up slow. Pain is one thing, but what I’m feeling is different. I’m not going to go back out there until I’m 100 per cent.”

• I caught a little of the Indians game last night and Jason Davis was impressive for 2 innings setting up Wickman. Cleveland.com has a little back story on Davis today.

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• More talk about Francisco Cordero losing his closer job in Texas, this time from Cordero himself. The Rangers have other options, including Antonio Alfonseca, Akinori Otsuka, and even Joquain Benoit has been throwing well.

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• Inside news of the loss of Jorge Cantu are notes that Rocco Baldelli is on pace to join the Rays on May 5th and Julio Lugo in the middle of May. Aubrey Huff was also scheduled to be back in mid-May, but he’s progressed well and could return sooner.

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PHI at COL

• Cook:
  0-1, 4.1, 11H, 7ER, 2K last season vs PHI (at Coors)
  vs Abreu: 3/11
  vs Bell: 5/9
  vs Burrell: 7/11
  vs Rollins: 5/15
  vs Utley: 4/11, HR
  vs Howard: 3/6, HR
• Lieber:
  1-1, 12.2, 8.53, 1.42, .353 last season vs PHI
  vs Atkins: 1/6
  vs Barmes: 3/8
  vs Hawpe: 4/6
  vs Holliday: 2/8, HR

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Baseball Daily - Wednesday

• After all, Helton’s diagnosis was apparently and thankfully not so bad.

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• Jorge Cantu is getting his foot looked at again. He was a late scratch from Tuesday’s game.

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• Mike Mussina pitched well and seems to be healthy after a couple of injury troubled seasons.

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• Eddie Guardado admits his shoulder is hurting, but says that its not a problem. Get a backup now.

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• The A’s think Milton Bradley’s knee injury isn’t serious.

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• Hey, look at that, Huston Street’s return has been pushed back to Friday now.

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ATL at MIL

• Sosa:
  0-0, 5.1, 1.69, 1.69, .375 last season vs MIL
  First career start at Miller Park
  9-9, 152.1, 4.90, 1.61, .279 career at day
• Sheets:
  2-0, 14.2, 1.84, 1.02, .236 last season vs ATL
  4-3, 65.2, 2.47, 0.96, .207 last season at home
  19-22, 361.1, 3.74, 1.18, .252 career at day
  vs Giles: 8/20
  vs AJones: 8/25, 2HR
  vs CJones: 7/20, 2HR
  vs Jordan: 5/9

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PIT at STL

• Duke:
  0-0. 2.0, 0.00, 1.50, .250 last season vs STL
  STL batting .258 vs LHP this season
• Mulder:
  3-0, 30.0, 1.80, 0.90, .194 last season vs PIT
  2-0, 21.0, 3.86, 1.14, .268 at new Busch
  PIT batting .266 vs LHP this season, led by Casey’s .412 (out)
  Casey is 9/18 vs Mulder
  vs Burnitz: 4/7, HR

Baseball Daily - Tuesday

• Today’s Out of the Box confirms something that the many, including the Beach, were speculating before the season started:

  If the Diamondbacks — or whoever owns his rights at any point — are smart, they’ll spend the rest of Brandon Webb’s career backing him up with nothing but Gold Glove candidates at both middle infield spots. Somehow, it seems that’s the perfect recipe for extracting near-ace performances from him on a regular basis.
  
  On Monday, Webb was at it again, limiting the Padres to one run on six hits and eight innings to pick up his third victory of the season. He didn’t even walk a batter and has now allowed only five free passes in 36.2 innings, an astonishing rate for a guy who just two years ago allowed a major league-high 119 walks in 208 innings of work. In fact, from that 5.1 walks-per-nine innings ratio in 2004, Webb has seen that rate drop to 2.3 in 2005 and now 1.2 this season.

  Tristan Cockcroft goes on to write about how the DBacks improved their defense over the off-season, and how he’s even a possible contender for the Cy Young.

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• The Brewers moved Rickie Weeks to the leadoff spot, and it sounds like he may stay there and start stealing some bases.

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• The quotes coming out of Colorado about Helton keep getting worse. It’s hard not to think that something terrible has happened.

  “I wanted to make sure I spoke with him [Sunday night] after the game,” Hurdle said. “It was just the end of a long day for Todd, but he was happy for the club. We talked as friends would talk. In situations like this, outlook and approach is critical.”
  
  Hurdle is deeply religious, and faith plays a big part of his daily life.
  
  “For me it is, and I tried to share that with Todd,” Hurdle said. “To me, God is not a punisher. There are a lot of different reasons things happen, sometimes things happen for reasons of growth. Todd’s strong. This isn’t anything he hasn’t dealt with before.”
  …
  Head trainer Keith Dugger confirmed that Helton’s condition was different from anything experienced by other players this season.

• It looks like Huston Street will finally return Tuesday or Wednesday.

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• The only thing certain about Carlos Beltran’s status right now is that he’s not playing this week. Maybe Friday, but not sooner.

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• Good news for AJ Burnett. Maybe he should cut down on the emailing his brother. There is no timetable yet for his return.

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• Russ Ortiz got a quick hook on Monday, and it turns out now that he’s out of the rotation. From the inning or two I saw of him, it looked like his fastball wasn’t there.

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• Noah Lowry hopes to throw a rehab game soon. Now’s a good time to pick up the young lefty if you were ever interested.

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• The Dodgers are stealing bases in bunches:

  “We were definitely looking at [doing] some running coming into the season,” Little said. “As long as it makes sense, we’d like to run.” Little says several players have the green light to run when they see fit.

• Chris Young has a blocked digital artery (finger, not electronic) and could miss some time.

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• Probably no time to write up tonight’s matchups, this report was late enough.

Baseball Daily - Monday

• Kevin Mench was a player many had before the season as a potential breakout outfielder. After starting the season slowly, Mench has hit a HR in each of his last 3 games, and has hits in his last 8. The best part, it may all be attributed to wearing bigger shoes.

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• Edgar Renteria is almost ready to return. So are Marcus Giles and Chipper Jones, for that matter. All could be back by mid-week.

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• Interesting words from the Rockies manager about the latest news on Todd Helton’s condition:

  “Keith got a call from Dr. Schreiber this morning,” Hurdle said. “They had a conversation about 9:30, and I think there’s improvement. That’s about all we’re going to say, just because we want to be sure we don’t pass on information that isn’t proper. This is a medical matter. It’s a private matter, although Todd’s a public figure. There’s improvement. More optimism today maybe than there was yesterday.”

  It sounds like that maybe they have finally figured out what the problem is, and that’s good. Hopefully, it isn’t too serious.

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UPDATE: I had forgotten about that Helton had talked about his poor health a few weeks ago. The 04.13.06 Baseball Daily has the quote.


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• The new Busch likes to give out triples.

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• Huston Street is throwing, but he’s still probably 3-4 days away from playing again.

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• Brian Roberts is playing through a hip flexor problem.

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• The Reds are close to trading for Dodgers’ OF Cody Ross.

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COL at PHI

• Fogg:
  1st career start at Citizens Bank
  Did not face PHI last season
  vs Abreu: 4/8, HR
  vs Burrell: 2/6
  vs Gonzalez: 7/20, HR
  vs Rollins: 3/9, HR
  vs Utley: 0/3
  Lefties hit .305 vs Fogg over his career (.259 for righties)
• Lidle:
  1-0, 7.0, 1.29, 1.00, .250 vs PIT last season
  8-8, 122.0, 5.02, 1.39, .299 career at Citizens Bank
  vs Burnitz: 5/11, 2 HR
  vs Castillo: 2/5
  vs Bay: 0/3

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• More games later

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CIN at WAS

• Ramirez:
  0-3, 22.1, 8.46, 1.93, .344 last season
  Making first start of year
  

  Ramirez was 0-1 with a 3.94 ERA in three starts this season for Louisville but hasn’t issued a walk in 16 innings. The decision to promote the 23-year-old was as much about timing as performance…
  
  …Ramirez pitched six innings on Wednesday and would be pitching on his usual four days’ rest. He retired 14 of his first 15 batters during a no-decision in his last outing. Last season, the right-hander was 0-3 with an 8.46 ERA in six games, including four starts for Cincinnati.

• Hernandez:
  0-1, 13.0, 4.85, 1.69, .308 last season vs CIN
  7-8, 123.2, 3.86, 1.35, .267 last season at home
  vs Dunn: 1/11
  vs Freel: 1/11
  vs Kearns: 4/7 6 RBI
  vs Griffey (out): 7/14, 5 HR

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LA at HOU

• Lowe:
  1-1, 15.1, 3.52, 1.24, .262 career vs HOU
  0-1, 8.0, 2.25, 1.13, .233 last season vs HOU
  First career start at Minute Maid
  vs Ausmus: 1/15
  vs Berkman: 3/8
• Pettitte:
  1-0, 8.0, 1.13, 0.88, .222 vs LA last season
  10-4, 118.2, 2.12, 0.94, .208 at home last season
  vs Cruz: 18/43 (.419), 2 HR
  vs Drew: 1/2
  vs Furcal: 0/6
  vs Nomar: 14/47 (.298)

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ARZ at SD

• Webb:
  0-1, 25.2, 3.86, 1.60, .337 last season vs SD
  0-1, 17.0, 5.29, 1.76, .333 career at PETCO
• Park:
  1-0, 6.0, 3.00, 1.00, .143 vs ARZ last season
  3-3, 32.0, 4.78, 1.50, .250 at PETCO last season
  vs LGonzalez: 14/42 (.333), 3 HR

Baseball Daily - Friday

• David Pinto links to some interesting news about the Yankees value to the league and revenue sharing. It should not be overlooked that the Twins, Pirates, and Royals all pocketed over $20 million that should have gone to their payroll.

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• Baseball Musings also has a note about Fernando Rodney pitching two innings in a non-save situation:

  Rodney go the win, not the save. Still, it’s good to see Leyland usings his closer in a non-save situation like that.

  Well, it also may be just because Todd Jones is expected back today. Detroit’s closer job will go back to Jones because of his experience, but don’t neglect what Rodney has done with this opportunity. Leyland hasn’t:

  “He’s done a heck of a job,” Leyland said. “I really like him. He’s a smart guy. He’s got a good feel for pitching. He doesn’t say a lot, doesn’t talk a lot, but he knows what he’s doing. He knows the game, too.
  
  “One thing I know for sure: He ain’t afraid.”

• Huston Street has a sore right pec and wasn’t available to close last night’s game.

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• Oh, Carlos Beltran.

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• Todd Walker should get the first chance to sub for Derrek Lee.

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• Ryan Howard hit seventh on Thursday, because the Nats were starting a lefty.

  “I’ve been confident [facing them],” he said. “For me, it’s all about reps. It’s kind of funny that everything is kind of magnified, as far as hitting seventh. You just have to go out and play.”
  
  Even if you’re hitting seventh.
  
  “This keeps his power in the game,” said Manuel. “He’s going to hit lefties, and it’s important to get him in there against lefties.”

• Has the Rangers’ pitching turned things around?

  Going into Wednesday’s game, Rangers pitchers were averaging 2.26 walks per nine innings, the lowest ratio in the American League.
  
  “I’ve been really happy with the walks,” Showalter said. “Guys have been aggressive attacking the strike zone. It’s always something you want to do but you don’t want to get stupid. You still want to get as many people out outside of the strike zone, too.”

• Francisco Cordero says everything is fine.

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• Matchups later.
UPDATE:

ATL at WAS

• Smoltz:
  1-0, 3.18, 1.09, .236 last season vs WAS
  1-0, 21.0, 3.00, 0.90, .189 last season at RFK
  vs NJohnson: 3/15, 1 HR
  vs Soriano: 0/1 vs Vidro: 11/35, 2 HR
• Patterson:
  0-0, 14.2, 1.82, 0.89, .122 last season vs ATL
  6-3, 125.2, 3.08, 1.15, .223 last season at RFK
  vs AJones: 1/8
  vs LaRoche: 1/10

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CIN at MIL

• Arroyo:
  0-0, 8.2, 4.15, 1.38, .200 career at Miller Park
  vs Jenkins: 1/3, 1 HR
  vs Koskie: 2/12, 1 HR
  vs Lee: 2/4
• Sheets:
  2-0, 21.0, 1.29, 0.81, .160 versus CIN in 2004
  Did not face CIN last season
  4-3, 65.2, 2.47, 0.96, .207 at home last season
  vs Dunn: 3/21
  vs Freel: 2/3
  vs Kearns: 0/9

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CHC at STL

• Williams:
  3-2, 37.0, 2.92, 1.30, .238 career vs STL
  2-1, 17.0, 4.24, 1.65, .270 career at old Busch
  vs Pujols: 1/12, 1 HR
  vs Rolen: 0/9
• Mulder:
  1-2, 20.0, 4.50, 1.60, .338 last season vs CHC
  7-3, 104.1, 2.59, 1.30, .263 last season at old Busch
  1-0, 13.0, 4.15, 1.38, .321 this season at new Busch
  vs Barrett: 3/10
  vs Jones: 5/15
  vs Lee (DL): 11/15: 1 HR
  vs Murton: 3/8
  vs Pierre: 1/5
  vs Ramirez: 3/10
  vs Walker: 0/4

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BOS at TOR

• Beckett:
  First career start vs TOR
  3-4, 45.1, 3.77, 1.39, .268 career indoors
• Burnett:
  First home start with TOR
  1-0, 9.0, 2H, 1ER, 1BB in only career start at Rogers Centre
  7-6, 108.1, 3.90, 1.38, .235 career indoors

Baseball Daily - Thursday

• The fine folks at DRays Bay posted a Beach note from Monday about taking walks and Shawn Camp. A minor comment war started as a result of one person’s demand for Delmon Young to be recalled. But as a result of that discussion, an important argument was not contested.

  Small Sample Size
  The Rays will not be in the top 3 by the end of the season. One bad game by Daniel Cabrera (9 BB / 60 total) should not be interpreted as a renaissance of plate discipline. Yes, Gomes has a good eye, but no way Gathright has a walk rate like that throughout the season. Gathright can’t hit - no one is going to be giving him walks (other than the cellar dwellars like the Royals and Orioles, both of whom the Rays have faced).
  by delmonfan

  I agree that the sample size and the Cabrera game has skewed the stats a little, but that doesn’t deny the truth that the Rays are approaching their at bats very differently this season. Ultimately, it’s not about walks, it’s about working the pitch count. I don’t care if they finish 15th in the league in bases on balls, but it is important that they continue to work the counts like they have been.

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• Carl Crawford doesn’t think his shoulder injury is serious.

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• Eric Karabell has a couple of pickup suggestions in his notes today:

  • Alex Rios, Blue Jays: While Craig Wilson of the Pirates is the most added player in ESPN leagues, and deservedly so, I wonder if we’re watching the breakout of a solid, young player in Toronto. Rios is becoming popular in fantasy as well, with his five home runs, 14 RBI and .395 batting average. … Grab Rios before this hot streak turns into a 25-90-.300 season.
  
  • Jack Wilson, Pirates: We can’t say we weren’t warned. Back in February Wilson told the media he’d been working out, gaining muscle and was ready for a big season. The Pirates believed him, signing the Gold Glove type shortstop to a long-term deal. Did fantasy owners believe? Not really. Wilson went undrafted in most leagues, but now people are noticing the four home runs and 10 RBI, along with the .333 average. Wilson was bad at the plate last season, we can all agree on that, and this isn’t the latest story of a Bret Boone, middle-infield type who becomes Superman and goes for 30 homers, but Wilson has become a legit fantasy shortstop in mixed leagues. He could do what Khalil Greene and J.J. Hardy are going to do, at a cheaper price.

  Well, Rios should have been picked up a week and a half ago, so chances are he’s not still available, but the Jack Wilson notes are good ones.

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• Baseball Musings has notes about Zach Greinke’s progress.

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• The Hardball Times takes a look at the good, original work being done by baseball blogs.

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• Bartolo Colon is on the DL with shoulder inflammation.

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• The Dodgers are getting the most out of J.D. Drew by playing him less.

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DET at OAK

• Bonderman:
  3-3, 36.0, 3.75, 1.39, .233 career vs OAK
  2-1, 21.0, 2.57, 1.05, .200 career at McAfee
  vs Bradley: 3/7, 1 HR
  vs Chavex: 5/13
  vs Crosby: 1/7
  vs Ellis: 2/10
  vs Kendall: 2/4
  vs Swisher: 1/4, 1 HR
  vs Thomas: 0/6
• Zito:
  7-5, 87.0, 2.79, 1.16, .231 career vs DET
  8-7, 117.2, 4.05, 1.16, .223 last season at home
  vs Guillen: 6/28, 2 HR
  vs Inge: 3/22
  vs Ordonez: 2/20
  vs IRod: 8/23, 1 HR
  vs Shelton: 2/7

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TB at BOS

• Kazmir:
  2-1, 38.2, 2.79, 1.40, .216 career vs BOS
  2-1, 22.2, 2.78, 1.50, .222 career at Fenway
  vs Nixon: 1/7
  vs Ortiz: 3/14
  vs Ramirez: 2/17, 1 HR
  vs Varitek: 1/6
• Wakefield:
  13-1, 140.0, 2.96, 1.11, .217 career vs TB
  3-0, 35.0, 3.09, 1.17, .238 last season vs TB
  10-4, 110.1, 4.08, 1.22, .240 last season at home
  vs Cantu: 5/16
  vs Crawford: 18/50, 1 HR
  vs Gomes: 3/9
  vs Lee: 10/27, 4 HR

2006 NHL Playoff Preview

I got home yesterday and found this week’s copy of The Sporting News waiting for me in the mail. I get TSN because their weekly beat coverage of the NFL and MLB is as good as any. But when it comes to the NHL, well, their resources are limited.


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Take Kara Yorio’s prediction that Carolina will win the cup. Or this Western Conference breakdown that says:

No team has a better four-deep “D” than the Oilers, and it’s keyed by Robert Svehla and Chris Pronger.

It’s true that Edmonton has the best top 4 in the league right now, and if Robert Svehla wasn’t kicking it in Parabudice or where ever he his right now, they’d have the best top 5. But alas, it’s Svehla’s old partner from their Panthers days, Jaroslav Spacek, is who they were referring to.


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Anyhow, back on how Carolina has little chance to win: they’ve certainly had a good season, but finished the season with just a 13-8-4 record after the Olympics and 9-8-4 after losing Eric Cole on March 8th. They play an attacking, aggressive, puck control style, yet unlike the Lightning team from two years ago, the Hurricanes just don’t have the defense to last long in the playoffs. To their advantage, Carolina will get to face Montreal in the first round instead of their division rival, Tampa.


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This may be a new NHL, but I don’t think the league is so different that a team that plays as open as Carolina does can win a championship. I like Martin Gerber in goal, but this is still his first real postseason test. Carolina is building something nice, but teams like this usually need a first or second round playoff loss in their belly before they can become real contenders.


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So who can win?


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OTT vs TB
It’s all about matchups at this point. Had Tampa Bay been lined up against Carolina in the first round, I could see an upset there, but against Ottawa, the Bolts don’t have much chance. They are 1-13 in their last 14 against the Sens, and as Martin Fennelly wrote today:

In short, maybe very short, the Lightning open their Cup defense needing four victories in two weeks against a franchise they’ve only beaten four times in five seasons.

Ottawa in 6


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CAR vs MON
As mentioned, the Canes caught a break by not having the Lightning as their first round opponent. Carolina was 3-3-2 against TB this season, but swept 4 games from Montreal- winning 5-1, 8-2, 7-3, and 5-3 (25-9 total). Carolina in 5


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NJ vs NYR
No Eastern team is hotter than the Devils (11 straight wins), and no Eastern team has nearly the experience in goal as do the Devils, so it’s almost improbable to think that the Rangers can pull the 6 seed upset here. The regular season series was tied 4-4, and every game was close. The Rangers are another team that has struggled since the Olympics, going 9-11-4 since March 1st. They also aren’t physical enough along the blue line to make the small Devils forwards pay for space. Over the second half of the season, New Jersey’s record was 29-9-2. New Jersey in 4


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BUF vs PHI
The Sabres won the season series 3-1, but they have all kinds of questions in goal and the Flyers are a playoff tested group. Hockey Analysis’s power rankings show that Buffalo has been one of the best teams all season, and even after the break, so this 4/5 matchup is a tough one to call. Which is why I’m going with experience. Philadelphia in 6


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DET vs EDM
More than any other club, this Oilers team will go as far as their goaltending will take them. Dwayne Roloson went 8-7-4 in his 19 games with Edmonton and while both he and the team did show good form during the season’s last two weeks, Roloson still has a problem with letting in soft goals at unfortunate times. The Oilers do get a break by not having to face Dallas again, and I think they do have a chance to give the NHL’s best team a run for their money. As mentioned above, Edmonton’s defense is as strong as any and they really do a good job of moving the puck to their forwards. This is Edmonton’s best team in a decade and if Roloson’s game equals Manny Legace’s, Edmonton has a chance. The Wings finished the season 17-2-3, so they are a huge favorite. But they aren’t a very big team and Edmonton’s skaters will be able to run with them for 60 minutes. The Oilers also have played very well on the road this year (21-13-7), and I expect them to be able to take at least 1, maybe 2 games in Detroit. But the Wings had a very impressive road record too (31-7-3) and in the end, that’ll do in Edmonton. Detroit in 7 very entertaining games


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DAL vs COL
The Stars finished a very quiet, but very solid regular season with 2 losses. When you break down their record into quarters, they went 13-6-1 in the first, 13-6-1 in the second, 13-6-1 in the third, and 14-5-3 in the fourth. Dallas also took 3 of 4 from Colorado this year and with the way the Avs limped into the playoffs (10-9-3 in their last 22), there’s just no chance for Joe Sakic and company.Dallas in 4


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CGY vs ANA
Things worked out well for both of last season’s Western Conference Finalists, Calgary and San Jose. They managed to avoid each other in the first round and the West will be a stronger conference this post-season because of it. That said, Anaheim had perhaps the best post Olympics break stretch runs than any other team (15-7-0 in last 22). Since March 1, the Ducks have played some very difficult opponents and won some very difficult games. But against the elite, they struggled a bit; losing both post-break games to Detroit, splitting 4 games with Dallas, and losing to Calgary last week before evening up on them in final game of the year. A big reason for the Ducks’ struggles against better teams is that they are a 1 line scoring offense. After Selanne and McDonald, there’s basically Lupul and no one else. Good teams will shut the top line down. And as long as the Flames have Kiprusoff, they have a chance to win it all. Calgary in 5


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NAS vs SJ
Despite rattling off 6 straight wins to finish the season, how can the Preds be taken seriously with Chris Mason in goal? Their away record this season was 17-17-7 and they give up an average of 32.5 shots per game. The Sharks have won 16 of their last 22 games and feature the best duo in hockey right now in Thornton and Cheechoo. San Jose has plenty of unheralded depth of defense, like Scott Hannan, and most importantly, the Sharks play a team game like few others. They will roll through Nashville.SJ in 5

Baseball Daily - Wednesday

• Marcus Giles keeps getting hurt. This time its a sprained left middle finger that he hurt sliding into second during the third inning. X-Rays were negative, but it’s too early for a timetable.

---

• If you missed Adam Stern’s risky, gutsy, borderline crazy catch with two outs in the ninth and the bases loaded, check it out here. Up by 3, he’s got no business going for that ball.

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• David from Baseball Musings writes:

  Park Indexes give us a measure of how much different stadiums help or hurt various statistics. It’s basically the playing time adjusted ratio of home/road numbers. A score of 100 indicated a neutral park. A score below 100 indicates a park that hurts the stat, above 100 helps.
  
  Right now, the Coors run index is 78.1, fourth lowest in the majors, while PETCO sits at 135.1, fourth highest. These two parks are usually at the opposite ends of runs scored, with Coors extremely high and PETCO extremely low. It continues to be a strange offensive year.

  I don’t have stats to back this up, but I seem to remember Coors Field always starting the season like this. And as the temperature warms, the runs increase dramatically.

---

• Interesting little story from Oakland about pitch speeds being shown at stadiums:

  For catcher Jason Kendall, the scoreboard speed reading is a bigger help to hitters than to pitchers.
  
  “Guys use it, especially early. A pitch might come in on the corner and you’ll go, ‘What the heck was that?’” Kendall said. “Then you look up and see what he’s got.”
  
  Plus, Kendall said, “You don’t want your pitcher looking at it. It’s not about how hard you throw it, it’s where you put it.”
  
  Still, just about every pitcher sneaks an occasional peek at the scoreboard display.
  
  “You see (Barry) Zito check it after he throws something slow,” Macha said, “and all the other pitchers on the bench give him the business about it.”

  I was at the TB/KC game on Sunday and during the first two innings Mark Redman, who was making his first start of the season after coming off the DL, was toping out his fastball at 79 and 80. He eventually worked it up to the mid-80s, but he really struggled to get those first six outs. In fact, when Johnny Gomes stepped to the plate in the bottom of the first with 1 on and 1 out, you could tell he knew exactly just how fast (or slow) Redman was throwing. Gomes was ready for the BP fastball that was served up and he hit it far into the left center field seats.

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• Todd Jones may come off the DL “as early as Friday”, but there’s a good chance he won’t jump back into closing right away.

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NL Day Games:


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FLA at CIN

• Willis:
  2-0, 14.0, 1.29, 1.00, .208 last season vs CIN
  2-0, 16.0, 0.00, 0.81, .182 career at Great American
  13-6, 174.2, 2.68, 1.11, .235 career at day
  vs Dunn: 0/7
  vs Kearns: 2/11
  vs Lopez: 1/12
• Harang:
  0-0, 6.0, 3.00, 1.67, .333 last season vs FLA
  10-14, 214.2, 4.49, 1.36, .266 career at Great American
  8-7, 135.2, 5.11, 1.47, .280 career at day
  vs Cabrera: 1/9

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STL at PIT

• Carpenter:
  3-0, 30.1, 2.37, 0.96, .213 last season vs PIT
  2-1, 21.0, 3.86, 1.00, .208 career at PNC
  vs Bay: 1/14
  vs Burnitz: 3/16
• Santos:
  0-2, 19.0, 7.11, 1.63, .295 last season vs STL
  0-2, 8.1, 8.64, 2.76, .415 career at PNC (as a Brewer)
  3-13, 134.2, 6.82, 1.72, .298 career at day
  vs Pujols: 6/13, 1 HR

---

ATL at NYM

• Hudson:
  3-0, 28.0, 1.93, 1.21, .253 last season vs NYM
  2-0, 12.0, 3.00, 1.25, .250 career at Shea
  39-15, 516.2, 3.15, 1.18, .234 career at day
  vs Delgado: 11/33, 5 HR
  vs Floyd: 4/11, 1 HR
• Glavine:
  1-2, 34.1, 3.67, 1.43, .288 last season vs ATL
  23-24, 423.0, 3.45, 1.35, .264 career at Shea
  vs AJones: 11/29, 3 HR
  vs LaRoche: 3/4, 1 HR
  vs Landerhans: 2/4, 1 HR

Baseball Daily - Tuesday

• The Braves have moved Marcus Giles out of the leadoff spot over the last two games. Giles was hitting .200 as a leadoff batter but did have an OBP of .357 there. Over the last two games, Giles has gone 2/7 (.286) with 2 more walks.

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• Seattle moved Adrian Beltre to the 7th spot in the lineup and the 3B responded with a 2/3 afternoon against Boston. Mike Hargrove said he justed wanted to take some pressure off of Beltre.

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• Armando Benitez will pitch in an extended spring game later on Tuesday and if he’s ready to return, Alou has said that he’ll come back in middle relief or setup initially.

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• After starting the season 2/20, Jason Lane has gone 8/24 with 2 HR in his last 6 games and looks more like the player who hit .305 after the break last season.

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• Nomar Garciaparra is eligible to come off the DL on Tuesday, but he’s not yet ready. Nomar took BP on Monday, but it looks like he may need another 5-7 days.

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NL Game Notes


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WAS at PHI

• Armas:
  5-4, 61.2, 4.67, 1.38, .223 career vs PHI
  0-1, 5.0, 3.60, 2.20, .250 career at Citzens Bank Park
  vs Abreu: 7/24, 2 HR
  vs Burrell: 2/18
  vs Rollins: 8/21
• Lidle:
  5-5, 77.2, 5.79, 1.55, .323 last season at home
  2-0, 25.2, 2.45, 1.17, .260 last season vs WAS
  8-6, 98.2, 5.56, 1.55, .321 last season at night
  vs Soriano: 10/28, 2 HR

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STL at PIT

• Suppan:
  1-0, 8.1, 1.08, 0.72, .179 last season vs PIT
  8-3, 103.1, 2.87, 1.14, .244 career at PNC Park
  vs Bay: 1/17
• Perez:
  0-0, 7.2, 4.70, 1.83, .280 in 2 starts vs STL last season
  11-13, 190.0, 3.84, 1.32, .220 career at PNC
  vs Pujols: 6/18, 1 HR
  vs Rolen: 5/11

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MIL at HOU

• Davis:
  3-7, 80.1, 3.70, 1.39, .243 career vs HOU
  0-6, 43.0, 3.98, 1.42, .245 career at Minute Maid
  vs Berkman: 10/27, 2 HR
• Oswalt:
  9-6, 112.0, 3.21, 1.13, .242 career vs MIL
  46-14, 518.2, 2.64, 1.05, .231 career at Minute Maid
  vs Jenkins: 11/34. 2 HR

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CHC at LA

• Zambrano:
  1-1, 25.0, 1.80, 0.88, .167 career vs LA
  1-0, 17.2, 0.00, 0.57, .100 career at Dodger Stadium
  vs Drew: 2/13, 1 HR
  vs Furcal: 2/17
• Lowe:
  1-1, 14.2, 3.68, 1.16, .250 last season vs CHC
  8-9, 122.2, 4.26, 1.23, .271 career at Dodger Stadium
  vs Lee: 6/12, 1 HR
  

Baseball Daily - Monday

• One great sign of improvement that this year’s DRays team has shown is their willingness to take a walk. They currently lead the majors with 60 base on balls.

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• More DRays news, Chad Orvella was recalled from AAA yesterday, but don’t look for him to take over as closer. In fact, if Miceli struggles, look for Shawn Camp to get a few more chances to close. Camp pitched two innings on Saturday for a save, and then came in to a big jam in the 8th on Sunday and got an inning ending double play.

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• Roy Halladay says he’s fine and thinks his forearm problems were from throwing too many cut fastballs early this year.

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• A day after Joe Girardi said he was looking to use a closer by committee, Matt Herges gave up 3 unearned runs in the 9th on Sunday, and blew his first save chance.

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• Chipper Jones update from the AJC:

  Chipper Jones took some soft-toss swings batting right-handed Saturday, the first time he’s hit at all since spraining his right knee and ankle. The veteran switch-hitter said the knee was still too tender to hit left-handed because of the torque generated by the front leg in his swing.
  
  Jones thinks he’ll need to wear a brace for most of the season after he returns to stabilize the knee.

• Todd Jones is working to get back playing by the end of the week.

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• Carlos Beltran is being cautious with the same injury that plagued him throughout the 2005 season.

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• Night game notes coming later.

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ANA at BAL

• Weaver:
  3-3, 43.1, 4.36, 1.08, .232 career vs BAL
  1-2, 20.2, 4.35, 1.16, .231 career at Camden
  Hasn’t appeared in BAL since 2002
  vs Hernandez: 13/34 (.382), 1 HR
  vs Mora: 2/12
  vs Tejada: 10/25, 1 HR
• Cabrera:
  9-14, 156.2, 4.42, 1.45, .239 career at Camden
  1-1, 10.0, 8.10, 2.10, .325 career vs ANA
  Has walked 16 in 6.1 innings this season

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KC at CWS

• Mays:
  0-2, 8.2, 12.46, 2.54, .477 last season vs CWS
  4-4, 54.1, 6.46, 1.58, .301 career at US Cellular
  vs Thome: 8/21, 3 HR
  vs Dye: 9/29, 1 HR
  vs Konerko: 12/41
• Contreras:
  3-0, 24.2, 1.82, 1.05, .190 last season vs KC
  5-0, 44.1, 2.23, 1.02, .194 career vs KC
  17 HR in 18 starts at home last year (3.78 ERA)
  6 HR in 14 starts on road last year (3.38 ERA)

Baseball Daily - Thursday

• Jose Vidro on RFK Stadium:

  “It killed us last year, and it’s going to kill us again this year,” said Vidro, who did hit a solo home run to right field in the fourth inning. “The organization didn’t really look deep into it last year. They saw what happened, and they didn’t change anything. So I guess they didn’t care about it, and it’s going to hurt us again this year. I guarantee you. … “This is not by any means a major-league ballpark. This is a — you could call this an airplane field. This is not baseball-type dimensions.”

  That article points out that the power alleys are 395 feet, even though they say the gaps are 380. No matter what, this park is a problem. And I don’t buy the argument that both teams have to play there. If both teams were playing underwater, would that be okay?
  
  On Tuesday, Vidro had his 7 game hitting streak snapped because a ball he hit that would have been a HR in any other park, wasn’t in this one. Naturally, Vidro picked up where he left off last night, hitting his 3rd homerun of the season. The Nats’ 2B hit .226 at home last season and .314 on the road. Teammate, Jose Guillen had 21 homeruns in 76 away games last year. How many did he have at RFK? In 72 games, just 3. Something has got to change there.

---

• Is the 32 year old Todd Helton feeling old?

  “I’m not feeling too well overall,” Helton said softly as he left to get some rest after Tuesday night’s game. “It has nothing to do with hitting. I’m just trying to get through it. I’m sick. Maybe it’s slowing me down a little bit at the plate. I chink one in here or there.
  
  “But tonight I came to hit early and felt some things that I was doing in Spring Training and hopefully I’ll be able to keep doing it.”

  I still like his chances of having a very production 2006 season.

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• Pirates’ Pitching Coach Jim Colborn on Oliver Perez:

  “My theory on him is he’s essentially still in spring training,” Colborn said. “He’s behind, and he’s going through a bit of a dead-arm period, something like that.”

  So we should probably expect Perez’s history of good start / bad start to continue.

---

• Ryan Howard’s early season struggles:

  “The thing is really just getting a good pitch to hit,” the Phillies first baseman said before last night’s 7-5 win over the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. “Sometimes you just get a little impatient, and you go after a pitch and try to make something happen. Instead of making something happen, you need to allow it to happen.”
  
  Has Howard forced the issue in the first week of the season?
  
  “I’d say yes,” he said. “I’d be lying if I said I hadn’t.”

  I remember Andruw Jones went through a similar thing last season after hitting 10 HR in the spring. Jones went on to hit just 3 HR in April of ‘05 but still ended up with 51. I think Howard will be okay too.

---

• Aramis Ramirez continues to be out.

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• Aubrey Huff’s results came back worse than expected and he’s on the DL for 4-6 weeks.

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• NL Day Games

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LA at PIT

• Lowe:
  2-0, 12.0, 3.00, 1.25, .213 last season vs PIT
  26-29, 423.2, 4.31, 1.33, .263 career at day
  2-0, 13.0, 2.08, 1.15, .217 career at PNC Park
  vs Bay: 0/4, 2K
  vs Casey: 1/6
• Perez:
  1-0, 6.0, 1.50, 1.33, .250 last season vs LA
  5-2, 61.1, 5.14, 1.45, .230 last season at home
  1-2, 27.1, 7.24, 1.87, .272 last season at day
  11-11, 196.1, 3.98, 1.40, .229 career at day
  vs Cruz: 5/9, 2 HR
  vs Kent: 5/17 (.294)

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NYM at WAS

• Hernandez:
  0-2, 11.1, 7.94, 1.68, .289 last season vs WAS (6.75 ERA at RFK)
  0-3, 26.0, 6.92, 1.65, .301 last season at day
  1st start this season
  vs Soriano: 13/31 (.419), 2 HR
• Hernandez:
  2-2, 38.0, 6.16, 1.53, .314 last season vs NYM (3.91 ERA vs NYM at RFK)
  7-8, 123.2, 3.86, 1.35, .267 last season at RFK

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MIL at STL

• Davis:
  0-4, 26.1, 5.47, 1.56, .263 vs STL last season
  3-6, 94.2, 4.47, 1.44, .256 away last season
  4-2, 88.1, 3.26, 1.14, .218 at day last season
• Suppan:
  4-0, 34.1, 1.31, 1.02, .215 vs MIL last season

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CIN at CHC

• Milton:
  1-0, 28.1, 6.99, 1.45, .296 career at Wrigley
  vs Barrett: 6/16, 1 HR
  vs Lee: 4/17, 3 HR
  vs Murton: 3/7<
• Zambrano:
  7-2, 113.2, 2.77, 1.10, .211 at home last season
  8-2, 106.1, 2.71, 1.19, .221 at day last season
  0-0, 10.2, 7.59, 1.50, .244 vs CIN last season (both starts at home)

Baseball Daily - Wednesday

• Roy Halladay will miss a start because of soreness in his right forearm.

  “What you try to do is err on the side of caution when you can and keep him healthy as long as you can,” Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi said. “It’s just precautionary more than anything. He can pitch, but we’d rather have him pitch at 100 percent than 90 to 95 percent.”

• Meanwhile, AJ Burnett is ready to go

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• Aubrey Huff escaped major injury when he ran into Nick Green on Tuesday. He’s day to day, but with half of the Rays infielders out, I’d expect him to at least be in the lineup.

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• If you haven’t already jumped on the Kris Benson bandwagon, this is your final reminder. I jumped on board last week and even though some may say something like, “well let’s see how he does when he’s not facing tampa” I’ll remind you that there is nothing wrong with the DRays’ lineup; it’s their pitching that stinks. As for Benson, everyone knows he’s always had the talent, but now that he’s working with Hernandez behind the plate and Mazzone in the dugout, all he has to do is let them call the game. He’s been hitting his spots brilliantly in his first two games and there’s no reason to think that he can’t win 15 games with an 3.00 ERA.

---

• Ozzie Guillen mentioned that he is considering using Brandon McCarthy as a closer:

  “Right now, we have a closer — Bobby Jenks,” Cooper said. “But I don’t have a problem with using (McCarthy) in the ninth. I don’t think it would be a bad move.”

• Armando Benitez is expected to come off the DL “sometime next week” but in listening to Peter Gammons last night on espn, prviately in SF, there are plenty of concerns about Benitez. Gammons mentioned that the Giants closer is only throwing with his upper body. If you have Todd Worrell, hang on to him.

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• MLB reports that the Braves’ new pitching coach, The Second Spitter, has watched his team put up a 6.85 ERA in their first week.

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Day Games:


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SD at FLA

• Young:
  8-1, 81.2, 3.31, 1.07, .217 career at day
  1st career start vs FLA
• Moehler:
  1-7, 87.0, 4.24, 1.48, .299 last season at home

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KC at NYY

• Affeldt:
  0-1, 11.2, 6.94, 1.89, .327 career at Yankee Stadium
  4-4, 133.1, 4.79, 1.47, .277 career at day
  vs Damon: 3/9, 1 HR
  vs Giambi: 3/6, 1 HR
  vs Matsui: 4/6
• Chacon:
  3-2, 37.0, 2.68, 1.19, .219 last season at Yankee Stadium

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CWS at DET

• Contreras:
  3-1, 33.2, 2.67, 1.16, .213 career at Comerica
  10-5, 156.1, 3.51, 1.17, .230 career at day
• Robertson:
  5-14, 132.1, 6.46, 1.56, .291 career at day
  vs Crede: 2/20
  vs Iguchi: 6/14, 1 HR
  vs Konerko: 9/27, 3 HR
  vs Pierzynsku: 3/6
  vs Uribe: 10/24, 1 HR

Baseball Daily - Tuesday

• Eric Karabell doesn’t have much faith in Brad Penny:

  Other hurlers who were drafted in Penny territory are Greg Maddux, Paul Byrd and Jeff Weaver. And that’s who Penny really is, an average right-handed starting pitcher who has had as many bad days as good in the majors. These two good outings, with 14 strikeouts and two wins in 12 innings, have gotten Penny’s ERA under 4 for his career (3.97), and he should enjoy pitching at Dodger Stadium, but he’s not Cy Young material and has topped 10 wins only once in his career. Sell high.

  Yeah, okay. Sell high, but not if you don’t have to. And sure, even when healthly, Penny might not compete for a Cy Young, but he can win 15-20 games and have an ERA around 3 and a WHIP around 1.20. Winning teams get these kinds of pitchers late. I was high on Penny to start the season, and his first two games are nothing more of an indication to me that there’s more to come.

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• Saw Jorge Cantu in person last night. He’s walking with a noticeable limp. It doesn’t look to me like he’ll be doing much more than pinch hitting for at least 5 days

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• Frank Robinson on Chad Cordero:

  “He’s not there yet, believe me,” Robinson said. “He’s throwing 85, 86 miles per hour. His location is not there. He’s just not in game shape.”

• It looks like Roberto Hernandez will be around to vulture about 10 saves from Mike Gonzalez this year. Manager Jim Tracy said, after Sunday’s game:

  “We talked an awful lot in Spring Training about unselfishness and the fact that we’re interested, as members of this ball club, to do whatever it is that’s necessary to win a Major League baseball game”
  …
  “I don’t think that you have to initially just throw the entire guy into the lion’s mouth and say, ‘Here, do it now,’” said Tracy. “There is a way to go about it. You give him little bits at a time with a veteran guy like Hernandez down there and a chance to mix and match when it makes an awful lot of sense to do so.”

• Minnesota could let Francisco Liriano into their starting rotation soon enough

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Day games:


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TOR at BOS

• Towers:
  2-0, 14.0, 10.29, 1.79, .385 career at Fenway
  8-5, 106.2, 3.46, 1.22, .274 last season away
  3-8, 83.1, 4.86, 1.27, .286 last season at day
  0-1, 8.0, 3.38, 1.00, .233 in 1 start last season vs BOS (home)
  vs Nixon: 9/18, 2 HR
• Beckett:
  First career start at Fenway
  First career start vs TOR
  BOS home opener

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CIN at CHC

• Arroyo:
  0-2, 12.0, 7.50, 1.25, .292 career at Wrigley Field
  9-10, 188.0, 4.31, 1.37, .264 career at day
• Rusch:
  11-9, 168.1, 4.22, 1.50, .302 career at Wrigley Field
  21-35, 464.2, 4.94, 1.45, .297 career at day
  vs Dunn: 8/23 (.348), 4 HR

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NYM at WAS

• Bannister:
  2nd career start
  Gave up only 2 hits over 6 in first game against WAS, but walked 4
• Ortiz:
  0-1, 6.0, 3.00, 1.33, .261 in only 1 career start at RFK
  vs Delgado: 12/30 (.400), 5 HR - including one last week
  WAS home opener

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KC at NYY

• Mays:
  0-4, 22.1, 6.45, 1.61, .295 career at Yankee Stadium
  15-24, 320.0, 4.81, 1.47, .288 career vs NYY
• Wang:
  5-2, 66.0, 3.55, 1.20, .250 career at Yankee Stadium
  First career start vs KC
  3-0, 29.0, 1.86, 0.93, .214 career at day
  NYY home opener