Week 14 - San Diego Chargers

21-23 vs Miami

In his post game press conferece, LT admitted they came out flat and didn’t play the first half with enough intensity. It probably didn’t help that the Chargers went up 7-0 early and outgained the Dolphins 94-4 in total yards during the first quarter. The Chargers, in fact, controlled the ball for twice as long as Miami did; but San Diego could not create anything bigger than a couple of 25 yard catches that Antonio Gates made (one in the second quarter and one in garbage time on the game’s final drive).

Miami defended the run well on each of the three levels of their defense. Their line got a good push up the middle, they contained LT from breaking his runs to the outside, and they had good run support from their DBs.

Miami also took away the downfield passing game from Brees and forced him to throw check down passes to his backs. Then, as San Diego adjusted by throwing more short comeback and out routes, Miami’s pass defense stayed disciplined and made the Chargers drive the length of the field.

After halftime, Miami picked up a field goal on their opening drive and when they kicked the ball back off to San Diego, Darren Sproles fumbled the ball back to Miami around their own 20 yard line. Suddenly, the Dolphins were up 13-7 and then on their next possession, 20-7.

Individually, Drayton Florence was picked on all day by Frerotte and Chambers. One week after catching 15 balls on 26 targets for 238 yards, Miami made a conscious effort to get their top receiver lined up on the left side against the smaller and weaker Florence. But even Quentin Jammer got caught looking into the backfield on that big play he gave up to Booker half-way through the fourth quarter. It was on third and 9 when Frerotte looked like he was going to be sacked and Booker was just going to run a simple out cut when instead Frerotte found time in the pocket and Booker turned his route up field and accelerated past the defense. 56 yards later, Miami had flipped the field on the Chargers and put the first nail in the coffin.

An interesting sequence followed that play by Booker when the Chargers recoverd a Brown fumble on the one yard line. Backed up against their own end zone, San Diego chose to throw the ball on first and second down, both from the one yard line. They were fortunate to get a pass interference call that moved them up to the three. But then three of their next four plays were again passes and they found themselves again on the three yard line after a 10 yard sack.

On third and 17, the Chargers completed a 16.5 yard pass to Parker and had to go for it on 4th and 0.5 from their own 25, with 4 minutes left. They gave the ball to Neal, not Tomlinson, and the fullback just barely made the half yard they needed (and he only did so after a linemen grabbed him and pulled him forward- which is supposed to be illegal).

Four plays later, Miami forced and recoverd a Brees fumble on the Chargers’ 23 yard line. What’s interesting about all that is there with Miami recoverd the fumble, there was only 2:30 left on the game clock. Brown’s fumble on the 1 yard line came with 8 minutes left. So that means with the game on the line at 20-13 and having just stolen Miami’s momentum, it took San Diego 5 and a half minutes to go 34 yards before they turned the ball over back on their own 23. They dropped back to pass 10 times out of 13 plays and it wasn’t because they were short on time. It’s because they could never establish their run.

The Chargers did stage a TD drive after Miami kicked a field goal, but it down by two was officially late
After two quarters, San Diego had held the ball for almost 22 minutes, compared to Miami’s 8.
After three quarters, San Diego had held the ball for 30 minutes, compared to Miami’s 15
After four quarters, San Diego had held the ball for 40 minutes, compared to Miami’s 20

So how do they beat the Colts?

Even as they struggled last week, San Diego still went 3 for 3 in the red zone. On the season, they have scored points in 43 of their 45 trips inside the twenty (95.6%). Their TD percentage is also tops in the NFL, at 33/45 for 73.3%. They rank 2nd in the league in 3rd down efficiency (behind the Colts) and their rush defense ranks 1st in yards per game and 4th in yards per carry. They can move the ball methodically, and they can stop the defense. Turnovers will be their key, as they’re just 18th turnover ratio while the Colts are 4th.

San Diego will need to shorten the length of the game by controlling the clock. No matter what the score is, they can’t get into a shootout. Only the Cowboys have held the ball longer this season, so as long as it’s not late in the fourth quarter, there’s no reason for them to give up on the run. If Drew Brees throws 40 passes, they’ll lose. And if LT is still suffering from that chest injury, the Chargers have a very nice backup in Michael Turner. San Diego’s secondary will not hold up if these two teams start trading blows. It didn’t happen in 2004 and it won’t happen here. But I really think they do have a chance to win. Perhaps a better chance than any other team this year. I’ve had this game circled for about 6 weeks now. The Chargers need this game to stay alive, while the Colts already have home field advantage. And maybe a San Diego win may just be the best thing for both teams.

TARGETS(catches):
Gates- 16(13)
McCardell- 8(7)
Parker- 7(4)
Caldwell- 6(4)
LT- 5(1)
Neal- 5(5)
Peelle- 3(1)