Archive for December, 2005

Week 17 Notes

• Atlanta
  The Falcons won’t have DeAngelo Hall available to cover Steve Smith.
• Carolina
  The Panthers’ starting center and guard will most likely miss this week’s game against Atlanta. Foster and Goings are both listed as questionable, but it’s expected that at least Foster will play.
• Cleveland
  Romeo Crennel has said that Lee Suggs will get a chance to play this week, as will their young and naturally gifted safety Sean Jones. Keep an eye on the former Bulldog DB for the future.
• Denver
  Tatum Bell will start at RB. The Broncos will also rest Courtney Brown, Al Wilson, and I suspect Bradlee Van Pelt to see plenty of time.
• Minnesota
  Pat Williams, the rock of the Vikings’ defense all season long, lost his father on Tuesday. It’s unlikely he’ll return to the team to play the finale.
• New England
  There is speculation that Ted Bruschi may miss 5 weeks, if his left calf muscle is indeed torn.
• NY Giants
  Shockey and Torbor will be out this week, but rookie CB Corey Webster will make a much deserved start. Webster is a big playmaker who needs more consistent game time experience, especially if they expect to rely on him during the playoffs.
• Pittsburgh
  Bill Cowher will wait to see what happens in the SD/DEN game before he decides to rest his starters.
• San Diego
  Last week, poor field conditions and pain slowed Tomlinson. Schottenheimer says he’s going with the starters all the way, but I’d be surprised if Turner and/or Sproles don’t get at least 15-20 carries combined.
• Seattle
  Seneca Wallace will get the majority of snaps against GB. Also expect Morris, Warrick, and Hackett to see plenty of time as well. Coach Holmgren says:

  “So now some of those guys get a chance to play. They should be excited,” coach Mike Holmgren said. “We wouldn’t change anything on how we call anything or do anything. … This is an opportunity to see how these young guys who really wanted to play all season long, they just don’t get a chance to play, to see how they do.”

• Tennessee
  Matt Mauck has been practicing this week and was just named starter for this Sunday’s game.
• Washington
  Mark Brunell practiced on Thursday and with most likely start against Philly. The Skins also have to worry about the health of two of their CBs, Springs and Rogers.

Week 16 - Pittsburgh Steelers

41-0 at Cleveland

Just a quick note on Ben Burger. In this game against Cleveland, he underthrew a wide open receiver in the first quarter. The play was completed, but as open as the WR was (Randel El, I think) he would have easily scored had the pass had traveled more than 30 yards.

Then in the second quarter, Ben badly over threw a wide open Randel El. A few plays later, on a short dumpoff pass, he looked like he was short arming the ball.

Towards the end of the quarter, Ben did throw a nice 30 yard end zone corner route that was knocked away incomplete, but was nonetheless a good throw. It seems that the thumb problem is keeping him from throwing the ball with consistent accuracy. And his arm motion is different almost every time.

TARGETS(catches)
Ward- 7(7)
Randel El- 5(1)
Wilson- 4(2)
Haynes- 2(1)
Morgan- 1(1)
Miller- 1(1)
Kreider- 1(1)

Week 16 - Carolina Panthers

20-24 vs Dallas

Up 10-0 early, Carolina’s offense didn’t do much to earn their lead except take advantage of two single coverage mismatches down the field. They only had 13 yards rushing in the first quarter; as the the Cowboys were loading up the box and Carolina kept running right into them. The two big plays they did hit were on first down pass plays.

On the 69 yarder to Proehl that set up Carolina’s first 3 points, it was 1st and 10 from the 20 after a Cowboys punt went for a touchback. Carolina ran playaction against what looked to be 0 coverage deep and the inside linebacker that was assigned to Proehl in the slot took one step in on the play fake and was never able to recover.

The Panthers first touchdown of the game was also Drew Carter’s first career score. The 6-3, second year wide out lined up against the 5-8 Aaron Glenn on the play. Off the line of scrimmage, Carter did a good job of running Glenn off for the first 10 yards and then made a nice break into his post pattern. But from there on he relied too much on his height to get the ball out of the air. He did not attack the ball in the air, nor shield the defender away and even though this particular result turned out well for him, if Glenn was 5′10 instead of 5′8, that play gets knocked incomplete.

Interestingly enough, half way through the third quarter, Delhomme threw Carter a pass deep down the sideline that the receiver glided into the path of- much in the way one would do casually in practice. Carter didn’t use his big frame to box the DB out, he did nothing special at all to finish his route, and the pass was knocked away by Reeves. Such is life as an inexperienced wide receiver. The Panthers were able to cut Rod Gardener because they felt Carter was ready to contribute, but the former Buckeye still has some work to do before he moves up the depth chart.

Looking ahead to week 17, the Panthers need a win against the Falcons to get into the playoffs. The last time they faced Atlanta, they used rookie LB/SS Thomas Davis to spy Michael Vick. Normally, teams can’t spy Vick with just one person, but Davis has that rare size/speed combination that makes it work. The Falcons will also be without top CB DeAngelo Hall and they still can’t stop the run.

TARGETS(catches):
Carter- 11(3)
Proehl- 4(2)
Magnum- 4(3)
Colbert- 3(0)
Goings- 3(2)
Smith- 2(1)
Foster- 2(2)
Hoover- 2(1)

Puck Periodic - Thursday

Philadelphia (at CAR)
• 3rd game in 4 days
• Played last night at ATL (4-3 W)
• Won 4 in a row
• 12-7-3 after a win
• 4-2-0 with 0 days off
• PP is 5/32 (15.6%) in last 5 games, 0/11 in last 2 games, 18.3% for season
• PK is 22/24 (91.7%) in last 5 games, 79.2% for season
• 4th game of an 11 game road trip (3-0-0 so far)
• Niittymaki has started last 6 games (5-0-1)
• Gagne has 3G 2A 20Sh in 4 games since returning (PHI is 4-0-0 in those games)
Carolina (vs PHI)
• 3rd game in 4 days
• Played last night at OTT (2-6 L)
• Lost 2 in a row
• 7-2-0 after a loss
• 1-4-0 with 0 days off
• PP is 8/46 (17.3%) in last 5 games, 18.4% for season
• PK is 27/33 (81.2%) in last 5 games, 79.6% for season
• 6-2-0 in first game back at home
• 2-1-0 when home after a road trip of 2+ games
• 3-1-0 when home after a road loss

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Buffalo (at TOR)
• 3rd game in 7 days
• Last played Monday vs NYI (6-3 W)
• Won 2 in a row
• 16-7-1 after a win
• 5-1-1 with 2 days off
• PP is 7/30 (23.3%) in last 5 games, 22% for season
• PK is 25/28 (89.2%) in last 5 games, 84.2% for season
• First game of a 1 game road trip
• 5-3-0 in solo road trips this season, 5-0-0 in last 5
• Miller has started 3 of last 4 games since returning from IR (3-0-0)
• 9-1-0 in last 10
Toronto (vs BUF)
• 3rd game in 4 days
• Last played Tuesday at PIT (3-2 W)
• Won 3 in a row
• 9-10-0 after a win
• 9-4-2 with 1 day off
• PP is 5/33 (15.1%) in last 5 games, 20.7% for season
• PK is 29/36 (80.5%) in last 5 games, 80.8% for season
• First game of 1 game homestand
• 6-0-0 in solo homestands this season
• 9-2-0 in first game back at home
• Tellqvist started last game, and has started in 6 of last 18 games
• Belfour is 5-3-0 when starting after a Tellqvist start

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Minnesota (at CGY)
• 3rd game in 4 days
• Played last night at EDM (4-2 W)
• Won 3 in a row
• 6-9-1 after a win
• 3-4-1 with 0 days off
• PP is 4/27 (14.8%) in last 5 games, 19% for season
• PK is 50/53 (94.3%) in last 11 games, 90.1% for season
• Final game of 3 game road trip (2-0-0 so far, both vs EDM)
• 1-3-1 in final game of road trip of 2+ games
• Fernandez has started last 3 games (3-0-0)
• Have been outshot in 26 of 37 games (14-10-2)
Calgary (vs MIN)
• 3rd game in 4 days
• Last played Tuesday vs NAS (3-4 L)
• 6-3-2 after a loss
• 12-6-2 with 1 day off
• PP is 8/32 (25%) in last 5 games, 16.8% for season
• PK is 28/35 (80%) in last 5 games, 82.2% for season
• 2nd game of 5 game homestand (0-1-0 so far)
• 0-2-0 last 2 at home, 12-4-2 at home for season
• Suave started last game, Kiprusoff is 3-0-1 when started after a Suave start
• 14-6-1 when outshooting opponent

Puck Periodic - Wednesday

Montreal (at TB)
• 3rd game in 6 days
• Last played Monday at ATL (0-4 L)
• Lost 2 in a row
• 5-2-3 after a loss
• 3-2-5 with 1 day off
• PP is 4/35 (11.4%) in last 5 games, 18% for season
• PK is 30/39 (76.9%) in last 5 games, 80.6% for season
• 3rd game of 5 game road trip (0-2-0 so far)
• Started the season 6-0-1 on road, 0-6-3 on road since then
• Huet has played last 4 games, 1-2-1
• Theodore expected back tonight
• Bonk and Koivu not expected back until the weekend
• Split 03-04 season series 2-2, but was swept in playoffs by TB
• 6-5-3 when outshot
Tampa Bay (vs MON)
• 3rd game in 6 days
• Last played Monday vs CAR (5-4 W)
• 9-7-2 after a win
• 7-8-0 with 1 day off
• PP is 6/34 (17.6%) in last 5 games, 15.2% for season
• PK is 18/28 (64.2%) in last 5 games, 81.4% for season
• 3rd game of 4 game homestand (1-1-0 so far)
• Registered 41 shots on goal in last game, 2nd most of season
• Have outshot opponents in 25 of 37 games this season (15-8-2)

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Boston (at FLA)
• 3rd game in 6 days
• Played last night at WAS (4-3 W)
• 4-5-3 after a win
• 2-4-0 with 0 days off
• PP is 2/24 (8.3%) in last 5 games, 16.7% for season
• PK is 25/31 (80.6%) in last 5 games, 82.5% for season
• 3rd game of 4 game road trip (1-1-0 so far)
• 2-3-0 when away after an away win
• 1-4-0 when away on back to back nights
• Toivonen has started 7 of last 10 games, 4-2-1 in those games
• 11 of last 15 games have been away, 4-7-0 in those games
• Gave up a season low 18 shots last night, and registered 43 shots of their own
Florida (vs BOS)
• 3rd game in 6 days
• Last played Monday vs PHI (2-3 SO L)
• Lost 2 in a row
• 7-9-4 after a loss
• 0-4-0 after an OT loss, all came during 12 game winless streak
• PP is 4/25 (16%) in last 5 games, 15.2% for season
• PK is 35/37 (94.5%) in last 5 games, 81.8% for season
• 2nd game of 3 game homestand
• 3-0-1 in last 4 home games
• 10 of 13 wins this season have come at home

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Nashville (at VAN)
• 3rd game in 6 days
• Played last night at CGY (4-3 W)
• Won 6 in a row
• 19-3-1 after a win
• 3-1-2 with 0 days off
• PP is 10/38 (26.3%) in last 5 games, 19.4% for season
• PK is 23/39 (79.3%) in last 5 games, 85.5% for season
• 4th game of 5 game road trip, 3-0-0 so far
• 1-8-1 vs VAN in last 10, outscored 18-38
Vancouver (vs NAS)
• 3rd game in 6 days
• Last played Monday vs CGY (1-2 L)
• 0-2-3 in last 5, all at home
• PP is 8/37 (21.6%) in last 5 games, 18.3% for season
• PK is 27/36 (75%) in last 5 games, 81.9% for season
• Final game of 6 game homestand (0-2-3 so far, were 13-1-0 at home before)
• Season low 17 shots for in last game

Puck Periodic - Tuesday

Toronto (at PIT)
• 4th game in 6 days
• Played last night vs NJ (2-1 W)
• Won 2 in a row
• 8-10-0 after a win
• 6-1-0 with 0 days off
• PP is 5/35 (14.2%) in last 5 games, 20.7% for season
• PK is 28/39 (71.8%) in last 5 games, 16/18 (88.9%) in last 3 games, 81% for season
• 1-5-2 in single game road trips this season (will be home vs BUF next game)
• 7-2-0 in last 9 meetings, 3-1-0 last season vs PIT
• Lindros, Steen, Antropov, Allison all day to day
• Tucker may be suspended for tonight’s game
Pittsburgh (vs TOR)
• 3rd game in 11 days
• Last played Friday vs PHI (4-5 L)
• Lost 5 in a row
• 5-9-4 after a loss
• 0-3-1 with 3+ days off
• 2-5-3 with 2+ days off
• PP is 3/27 (11.1%) in last 5 games, 15.2% for season
• PK is 33/42 78.5%) in last 5 games, 79.1% for season
• 2nd game of 4 game homestand
• Therrien is 0-3 as new coach

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Detroit (at DAL)
• 3rd game in 8 days
• Last played Friday at CHI (3-2 W)
• Won 3 in a row
• 17-5-1 after a win
• 2-0-0 with 3+ days off
• 11-3-0 with 2+ days off
• PP is 7/32 (21.8%) in last 5 games, 25.2% for season
• PK is 20/27 (74.1%) in last 5 games, 84.2% for season
• 3-0-1 vs DAL last season
• 2nd of 2 game road trip
• 4-0-1 in final game of road trip of 2+ games
• 4 of last 5 games have been away (2-1-1)
• Osgood has started 7 of last 8 games (6-0-1 over that stretch)
• 31.4 shots allowed per game in last 5, 27.4 for season
• 7-2-0 when outshot
Dallas (vs DET)
• 3rd game in 5 days
• Played last night at STL (6-1 W)
• 13-8-1 after a win
• 6-1-0 with 0 days off
• PP is 3/33 (9.1%) in last 5 games, 15.9% for season
• PK is 50/54 (92.6%) in last 9 games, 27/27 in last 4 games, 85% for season
• First game of 3 game homestand
• 3-3-0 in first game back home this season
• 2-1-0 in first game home after 1 game road trip
• 7-2-0 in last 9 at home
• Turco missed last night with flu
• Turco is 0-4-5 2.88 .893 lifetime vs DET
• 21.75 shots allowed per game in last 4, 25.5 for season

Week 16 Picks

Writers’ Picks - Mirl

A job made me miss the deadline to submit this week’s picks on time, but I hope The Mirl will be able to get them up before Saturday.

I spent most of this week looking at NFL underdogs in weeks 15-17 so I recommend taking a look at those stats if you’re looking for an underdog to catch a ride on in order to get yourself back into your office pool.

If I weren’t but a couple games out of first place, I would be taking a chance on Cleveland, Green Bay, and probably Baltimore to pull big upsets this week.

Beach picks, as always for the NFL, are here.

Puck Periodic - Friday

Ottawa (at NYI)
• 3rd game in 4 days
• Played last night at PHI (3-4 L)
• Lost 3 of 4, 5 of 7 and 2 in a row (shootout)
• 5-0-0 after regulation loss
• 4-1-1 with 0 days off
• PP is 9/24 (37.5%) in last 3 games, 22.8% for season
• PK is 28/34 (82.3%) in last 5 games, 85.4% for season
• Final game of 3 game road trip (0-1-1 so far)
• 2-1-0 in final game of road trip of 2+ games this season
• 6 of last 8 games have been on road (2-1-3)
• 4-3-3 since losing Havlat, 8-5-3 without Havlat this season, 15-1-0 with Havlat
• Got Phillips back last night and Redden has played 3 games since recovering from knee injury
• Played without Spezza last night, he’s day to day
NY Islanders
• 3rd game in 5 days
• Last played Wednesday vs NJ (4-2 W)
• 4-10-2 after a win
• 7-10-1 with 1 day off
• PP is 7/40 (17.5%) in last 5 games, 18.4% for season
• PK is 27/34 (79.4%) in last 5 games, 81.9% for season
• PK gave up a PP goal in 8 chances to NJ last game, and NJ was 4 for last 78 (5.1%) entering that game
• 0-3-0 when home after a home win
• 0-2-0 vs OTT this season,
• Outscored combined 2-12 and have given 6 PP goals to OTT in 16 chances

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Nashville (at CLB)
• 3rd game in 4 days
• Last played Wednesday at Chicago (6-1 W)
• Won 4 in a row
• 17-3-1 after a win
• 8-2-0 with 1 day off
• PP is 8/41 (19.5%) in last 5 games, 18.4% for season
• PK is 22/26 (84.6%) in last 5 games, 86.3% for season
• 2nd game of 5 game road trip
• Mason started last game, NAS 2-1-1 in games where Vokoun starts after Mason
Columbus (vs NAS)
• 3rd game in 4 days
• Last played Wednesday vs DAL (3-5 L)
• 0-4-1 in last 5
• 7-15-1 after a loss
• 4-13-0 with 1 day off
• PP is 3/29 (10.3%) in last 5 games, 11.9% for season
• PK is 32/35 (91.4%)in last 5 games, 83.3% for season
• 2nd game of 4 game homestand
• 2-7-0 on Fridays, 2-3-0 on Fridays at home
• 6-10-0 at home this year

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Phoenix (at DAL)
• 3rd game in 4 days
• Played last night vs SJ (2-1 W)
• 7-8-1 after a win
• 3-2-1 with 0 days off
• PP is 5/32 (15.6%) in last 5 games, 5/22 (22.7%) in last 3 games, 19% for season
• PK is 24/31 (77.4%) in last 5 games, 80.9% for season
• PK is 2/20 against DAL this season (1-2-0 vs DAL, 0-1-0 at home vs DAL)
• First game of 3 game road trip
• 3-1-0 in first game of road trip of 2+ games (only loss was season opener)
Dallas (vs PHX)
• 3rd game in 5 days
• Last played Wednesday at CLB (5-3 W)
• 13-7-1 after a win
• 8-3-0 with 1 day off
• PP is 3/33 (9.1%) in last 5 games, 16.5% for season
• PK is 27/30 (90%) in last 5 games, 84.1% for season
• First game home after 6 game road trip (4-2-0)
• 1-1-0 when home after road trip of 2+ games
• Hedberg started last game, 2-1-0 when Turco starts after Hedberg

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Calgary (at VAN)
• 3rd game in 5 days
• Last played Wednesday vs LA (2-5 L)
• Lost 2 in a row
• 5-3-2 after a loss
• 11-6-2 with 1 day off
• PP is 4/22 (18.1%) in last 4 games (w/o Hamrlik), 15.9% for season
• PK is 19/26 (73%) in last 5 games, 82.7% for season
• First of 2 straight games at VAN
• 2-0-0 vs VAN this season, both at home
• 7-8-2 on road this season
• 0-3-0 in first game of road trip of 2+ games this season
Vancouver (vs CGY)
• 3rd game in 5 days
• Last played Wednesday vs EDM (6-7 L)
• 0-1-2 in last 3, all at home
• 13-1-0 in 14 previous home games this season
• 5-3-1 after a regulation loss
• 2-1-1 after an OT loss
• 10-5-3 with 1 day off
• PP is 8/32 (25%) in last 5 games, 18.1% for season
• PK is 24/32 (75%) in last 5 games, 82.1% for season
• 3 games left in 6 game homestand (0-1-2 so far), 2 games vs CGY

Week 15 Notes: Part IV

PART I - PART II - PART III

Here’s what happened in week 15 of this season:



2005
WEEK 15	DOG H/A	DOG BY	RESULT	SCORE	PT DIFF	TOTAL
SAT	H	1	W	0-28	+28	28
	A	1	L	17-27	-10	44
	H	6	L	28-17	-11	45
SUN	A	8	L	9-10	-1	19
	-		a W	17-16		33
	A	5	W	26-17	+9	43
	H	3	W	19-30	+11	49
	H	6	L	27-10	-17	37
	H	7	L	28-24	-4	52
	-		a W	18-3		21
	A	3	L	20-24	-4	44
	-		a W	9-7		16
	H	6	L	41-17	-24	58
	H	1	W	7-35	+28	42
	A	1	L	3-16	-13	19
	A	1	L	3-48	-45	51

WEEK 15	2005
DOGS S/U	4-9
MARGIN (AVG)	-53 (-4.1)
TOTAL	40.84
AWAY DOGS	1-5
MARGIN	-64 (-10.7)
TOTAL	36.67
HOME DOGS	3-4
MARGIN	+11 (+1.6)
TOTAL	44.43
EVEN HOME	0-3
TOTAL	23.33
ALL TOTAL	35.35



Now here’s a table of how Dogs who entered their game separated by 3 or more games from their opponent have done:



YEAR/WEEK	DOGS OF 3+	HD OF 3+
2004 / 15	2-4	2-2
2004 / 16	2-3	2-2
2004 / 17	6-7	4-3
2003 / 15	2-8	2-3
2003 / 16	5-6	2-4
2003 / 17	4-8	3-3
2002 / 15	3-4	1-2
2002 / 16	2-5	2-3
2002 / 17	4-6	3-2


All dogs of 3 games or more over the last 3 years finished with a record of 30-51 (.370).
Home dogs of 3 games or more over the last 3 years finished with a record of 21-24 (.467).

And even more impressively is 70% (21 of 30) of wins by dogs of 3+ games have come at home.
That 70% is spread out evenly over the three final weeks.
Week 15 (02-04): 71.4% (5 of 7)
Week 16 (02-04): 66.7% (6 of 9)
Week 17 (02-04): 71.4% (10 of 14)

Last week, Dogs of 3+ were just 2-6 and HD’s of 3+ were only 1-4.

We’ll see how they do in week 16 of the 2005 season.

Here are the home dogs of 3+ to watch:
Cleveland (4 game dog) hosts Pittsburgh
Houston (8 game dog) hosts Jacksonville
Green Bay (7 game dog) hosts Chicago
Baltimore (3 game dog) hosts Minnesota
NY Jets (6 game dog) hosts New England

I’d say that all but the Jets have a good chance to pull out an upset.

Week 15 Notes: Part III

PART I - PART II

Below is a breakdown of the raw data provided here and here.

A quick summary of what this is all about: I’m tracking the results of teams who enter their week 15-17 games with a worse record than their opponent.

Remember that the point spread does not factor into these stats.
The use of the word ‘dogs’ here means only that a team came into the game with a worse record than their opponent.

LEGEND:
DOGS S/U- Dogs straight up
MARGIN (AVG)- Total margain of difference for dog teams (average per game)
TOTAL- Average point total per game (both teams)
AWAY DOGS- Record of dogs on the road
HOME DOGS- Record of dogs at home
EVEN HOME- Record of home team in even record matchup
ALL TOTAL- Average total points scored in all 16 games



WEEK 15’s	2004	2003	2002	3 YR SUM
DOGS S/U	4-9	2-13	5-8	11-30 (.268)
MARGIN (AVG)	-36 (-2.8)	-179 (-11.9)	-64 (-4.9)	-279 (-6.8)
TOTAL	46.54	45.33	44.61	45.48
AWAY DOGS	1-4	0-9	2-3	3-16
MARGIN	-38 (-7.6)	-136 (-15.1)	-52 (-10.4)	-226 (-11.9)
TOTAL	43.4	49.33	52	48.47
HOME DOGS	3-5	2-4	3-5	8-14
MARGIN	+2 (+0.25)	-43 (-7.2)	-12 (-1.5)	-53 (-2.4)
TOTAL	48.5	38.83	40	42.77
EVEN HOME	1-2	1-0	3-0	5-2
TOTAL	47.33	6	48	41.71
ALL TOTAL	46.68	43.03	45.25	44.99

WEEK 16’s	2004	2003	2002	3 YR SUM
DOGS S/U	3-8	6-10	7-8	16-26 (.381)
MARGIN (AVG)	-59 (-5.4)	-93 (-5.8)	-42 (-2.8)	-194 (-4.62)
TOTAL	42.09	44.19	38.4	41.57
AWAY DOGS	1-4	4-5	3-5	8-14
MARGIN	+3 (+0.6)	-25 (-2.8)	-29 (-3.6)	-51 (-2.3)
TOTAL	41.8	45.44	40.12	42.68
HOME DOGS	2-4	2-5	4-3	8-12
MARGIN	-62 (-10.3)	-68 (-9.7)	-13 (-1.9)	-143 (-7.1)
TOTAL	42.33	42.57	36.43	40.35
EVEN HOME	4-1	0-0	0-1	5-2
TOTAL	40.4	-	27	32.71
ALL TOTAL	41.56	44.19	37.69	41.15

WEEK 17’s	2004	2003	2002	3 YR SUM
DOGS S/U	8-6	7-9	7-9	22-24 (.478)
MARGIN (AVG)	+14 (+1)	-64 (-4)	-48 (-3)	-98 (-2.1)
TOTAL	44.21	37.5	39.62	40.28
AWAY DOGS	2-3	1-5	2-6	5-14
MARGIN	+8 (+1.6)	-76 (-12.7)	-71 (-8.9)	-139 (-7.31)
TOTAL	41.2	35.67	38.88	38.48
HOME DOGS	6-3	6-4	5-3	17-10
MARGIN	+6 (+0.7)	+12 (+1.2)	+23 (2.9)	+41 (+1.52)
TOTAL	45.89	38.6	40.38	41.56
EVEN HOME	1-1	0-0	0-0	1-1
TOTAL	29	-	-	29
ALL TOTAL	42.31	37.5	39.62	39.81


Notes:
Week 17 combined home dogs record is 17-10 but look at the margin of victory there; just 1.52 points per game.
Week 16 is the one week out of the three that road dogs have done well.

Tomorrow, we’ll take a look back at the most recent week 15 (2005) and also breakdown how the Dogs perform when they are separated from their opponent by 3 games or more.

Puck Periodic - Tuesday

New Jersey (at NYI)
• 3rd game in 5 days
• Played last night at NYR (3-1 W)
• 5-7-2 after a win
• 3-3-0 with 0 days off
• PP is 1/41 (2.4%) in last 5 games, 15.2% for season
• PK is 25/28 (89.2%) in last 5 games, 83.1% for season
• Final game of 3 game sort of road trip (at NYR and at NYI don’t really count) (1-1-0 so far)
• 5 of 6 games on second of back to back nights have been decided by 1 goal.
• Brodeur has started last 7 games (2-2-3)
New York Islanders (vs NJ)
• 3rd game in 5 days
• Last played Monday at TOR (6-9 L)
• 11-2-0 after a loss
• 6-10-1 with 1 day off
• PP is 8/40 (20%) in last 5 games, 18.8% for season
• PK is 27/33 (81.8%) in last 5 games, 81.7% for season
• 5-1-0 in games after they given up 5+ goals
• 4-1-0 when home following a road loss (OT and regulation)

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Los Angeles (at CGY)
• 4th game in 6 days
• Last played Monday at VAN (4-3 SOW)
• Won 3 in a row
• 10-9-1 after a loss
• 11-7-0 with 1 day off
• PP is 7/37 (18.9%) in last 5 games, 15.1% for season
• PK is 27/32 (84.3%) in last 5 games, 82.7% for season
• 9-7-1 away this season, 3-0-0 in last 3 on road, 0-4-0 in 4 previous road games
• 2nd game of 3 game road trip (1-0-0 so far)
• Third best in road goals scored with 62 (3.65 per game)
Calgary (vs LA)
• 3rd game in 5 days
• Last played Monday at EDM (4-5 L)
• 5-2-2 after a loss
• 11-5-2 with 1 day off
• PP is 5/22 (22.7%) in last 5 games, 15.7% for season
• PK is 30/33 (90.9%) in last 5 games, 82.6% for season
• 1-0-1 when home following a road loss
• 12-2-2 at home this year
• Allowing league best 25 goals (1.56 per game) at home this year
• 2-2-1 in games after giving up 4+ goals

Week 15 Notes: Part II

PART I

LEGEND:
WEEK- is simply which week the games take place
DOG H/A- indicates if the team with the poorer record is playing either home or away (’-’ means the two teams entered the game with the same record)
DOG BY- shows by how many games the two teams were separated by coming into the contest
RESULT- how did the team with the poorer record do
SCORE- the final score of the game
PT DIFF- the margin of point difference for the ‘dog’
TOTAL- the total number of points scored in the game



2003
WEEK 15	DOG H/A	DOG BY	RESULT	SCORE	PT DIFF	TOTAL
SUN	-		h W	0-6		6
	A	7	L	13-27	-14	40
	A	7	L	17-45	-28	62
	A	7	L	7-38	-31	45
	A	1	L	39-41	-2	80
	H	3	W	10-13	+3	23
	A	3	L	26-28	-2	54
	A	1	L	3-16	-13	19
	A	2	L	22-27	-5	49
	H	4	W	12-20	+8	32
	A	4	L	20-23	-3	43
	H	4	L	38-21	-17	59
	H	5	L	20-17	-3	37
	H	3	L	27-0	-27	27
	A	2	L	7-45	-38	52
MON	H	2	L	34-27	-7	61

WEEK 16	DOG H/A	DOG BY	RESULT	SCORE	PT DIFF	TOTAL
SAT	A	4	W	30-28	+2	58
	H	4	W	20-45	+25	65
	H	6	L	21-16	-5	37
SUN	H	4	L	35-0	-35	35
	A	2	L	24-27	-3	51
	A	5	L	14-20	-6	34
	H	2	L	20-3	-17	23
	A	3	L	10-27	-17	37
	H	3	W	19-20	+1	39
	H	5	L	27-24	-3	51
	A	5	W	3-19	+16	22
	A	2	L	24-40	-16	62
	A	5	L	10-28	-18	38
	A	5	W	31-28	+3	59
	A	2	W	31-17	+14	48
MON	H	4	L	41-7	-34	48

WEEK 17	DOG H/A	DOG BY	RESULT	SCORE	PT DIFF	TOTAL
SAT	A	7	L	0-31	-31	31
	H	2	L	24-17	-7	41
	H	6	L	31-7	-24	38
SUN	A	5	L	3-31	-28	34
	H	6	L	20-17	-3	37
	H	8	W	20-30	+10	50
	A	4	W	22-14	+8	36
	H	1	W	21-14	+7	35
	A	4	L	13-33	-20	46
	H	3	W	7-13	+6	20
	A	3	L	21-23	-2	44
	H	6	L	37-24	-13	61
	H	6	W	17-18	+1	35
	H	1	W	14-21	+7	35
	H	1	W	3-31	+28	34
	A	3	L	10-13	-3	23

2002
WEEK 15	DOG H/A	DOG BY	RESULT	SCORE	PT DIFF	TOTAL
SUN	H	4	L	29-15	-14	44
	H	2	W	13-20	+7	33
	A	4.5	W	30-24	+6	54
	H	4	W	13-20	+7	33
	H	2	L	23-19	-4	42
	H	1	L	28-23	-5	51
	A	3.5	L	14-30	-16	44
	A	5	L	21-34	-13	55
	A	6	W	32-31	+1	63
	H	1	W	17-23	+6	40
	H	7	L	23-20	-3	43
	-		h W	24-31		55
	H	1	L	20-14	-6	34
	A	2	L	7-37	-30	44
	-		h W	28-30		58
MON	-		h W	7-24		31

WEEK 16	DOG H/A	DOG BY	RESULT	SCORE	PT DIFF	TOTAL
SAT	H	5	W	17-20	+3	37
	H	4	L	17-14	-3	31
	H	6	L	27-3	-24	30
SUN	A	4	L	0-10	-10	10
	H	7	W	13-20	+7	33
	A	1	L	14-24	-10	38
	A	5.5	L	15-36	-21	51
	A	1	L	10-26	-16	36
	H	1	W	22-24	+2	46
	H	3	L	28-10	-18	38
	A	1	W	44-27	+17	71
	H	1	W	30-10	+20	40
	A	1	L	16-28	-12	44
	-		a W	14-13		27
	A	1	W	30-17	+13	47
	A	0.5	W	17-7	+10	24

WEEK 17	DOG H/A	DOG BY	RESULT	SCORE	PT DIFF	TOTAL
SAT	H	3	W	7-10	+3	17
	A	2	L	0-24	-24	24
SUN	A	3	W	10-6	+4	16
	H	1	W	24-27	+3	51
	H	2	L	38-36	-2	74
	A	5	L	9-27	-18	36
	H	6	L	13-3	-10	16
	H	0.5	W	16-24	+8	40
	A	1	L	14-20	-6	34
	A	4.5	L	31-34	-3	65
	A	3	L	13-20	-7	33
	A	2	W	31-28	+3	59
	H	3	W	17-42	+25	59
	A	3	L	7-37	-20	44
	H	7	L	15-0	-15	15
	H	3	W	20-31	+11	51

Week 15 Notes: Part I

Well, it certainly was a very defining week 15.
Unfortunately, my picks were standing on the local side while the express came rolling right past.
(I don’t really know what that means, but there’s a strike in NYC so it’s on my mind)

I think I spent so much time last week looking at the big SD/IND game, that I overlooked many of the other important matchups.

Nonetheless, there are still two weeks left to make up the 2 game hole I’ve dug, so it’s still possible to pull this thing out.

Looking ahead, it is often said that teams who are out of the playoff race don’t have anything to play for. But in most cases, that could not be further from the truth. There are players on those teams, a great number of players, who are fighting for jobs for next season.

So over the next couple of days, we’re going to look at trends during this final few weeks.

Here’s part one of the stats I’ve dug up.
These are charts showing how teams with worse records than their opponents perform during weeks 15-17.

Below is 2004; weeks 15, 16, and 17.
At this point, these charts are very crude, but once they’re all posted, I’ll compile some results that will start making sense.

A quick legend:
WEEK- is simply which week the games take place
DOG H/A- indicates if the team with the poorer record is playing either home or away (’-’ means the two teams entered the game with the same record)
DOG BY- shows by how many games the two teams were separated by coming into the contest
RESULT- how did the team with the poorer record do
SCORE- the final score of the game
PT DIFF- the margin of point difference for the ‘dog’
TOTAL- the total number of points scored in the game



2004
WEEK 15	DOG H/A	DOG BY	RESULT	SCORE	PT DIFF	TOTAL
SAT	H	7	L	33-30	-3	63
	H	2	L	26-16	-10	42
	A	4	L	31-34	-3	65
SUN	H	2	L	28-27	-1	55
	H	1	L	33-17	-16	50
	H	3	W	17-45	28	62
	–		a W	24-5		29
	A	2	L	14-37	-23	51
	A	7	L	7-12	-5	19
	H	7	L	21-0	-21	21
	-		a W	21-17		38
	H	1	W	7-31	24	38
	-		h W	35-40		75
	A	1	W	28-25	3	52
	A	2	L	10-20	-10	30
MON	H	8	W	28-29	1	57

WEEK 16	DOG H/A	DOG BY	RESULT	SCORE	PT DIFF	TOTAL
FRI	-		a W	34-31		65
SAT	A	1	L	31-30	-1	61
	H	4	L	37-16	-21	53
SUN	-		h W	34-31		65
	A	2	W	21-0	21