Archive for September, 2005

Thursday Football

NO- This game was a battle of quarterbacks who don’t know how to throw the ball on time. Devery Henderson took advantage of the Vikings’ lack of depth at corner for 6 catches on 7 targets and 137 yards. Joe Horn had a hard time against Antoine Winfield. Horn had just 1 catch on 6 targets. Donte Stallworth was covered up pretty well too. He didn’t catch any one of the four passes thrown his way. Stallworth did have a punt return TD called back on an illegal block. Ernie Conwell is still the most consistent receiver on this team. Aaron Brooks clearly trusts his tight end. Conwell picked up 8 more targets, but he dropped a few and ended up with just 3 catches. Also, Duece McCallister doesn’t look as quick as I remember him being.

MIN- Don’t be fooled. The Vikings are not back yet. Daunte Culpepper is having problems in the pocket. He’s playing like a first year QB, at times running with the ball way too much and at other times holding on to it too long. And I don’t think it’s so much that he can’t read the defense during the play, but maybe he just doesn’t have confidence in either the offense’s design or his receivers or both. Bottom line, he’s not confortable. The Vikings need to give him more check down options. A couple times they used Mewelde Moore as a swing out option, like how Norv Turner does in Oakland, and they need to do more of that. Mewelde isn’t the best blocker anyhow, so they’re better off getting him to chip on someone before flaring out as a safety valve. With the way the Saints were turning the ball over in their own territory, if Minnesota’s offense was truly fixed, the Vikings would have made this game 28-0 after the first quarter.

What big plays Minnesota did have were just as much at the fault of the Saints as they were to the credit of the Vikings. Minnesota’s first and third touchdowns were simply a case of the receiver beating a corner in man coverage without much help from a safety. Dwight Smith, in particular, had a terrible day against the Vikings.

Still, there are some areas where a little optimism isn’t misguided. Moore looked like he can make a difference out there as this team’s featured back, as long as he can stay healthy. The OLine did a good job blocking for him and despite the seven sacks the stat book shows, they weren’t awful in pass protection. A lot of those should be put on Culpepper.

Also, the Vikings’ defense did a good job forcing the Saints into third and longs, and then brought a myriad of blitzes on third down.

With Atlanta coming up for the Vikes, I’m not too confident that this team has turned the corner on their problems. They easily left around 20 points on the field in week three. They also threw for just 30 yards in the second half, and this wasn’t a blow out either. At one point, the Saints were down by just 8.

As for the targets, Jermaine Wiggins led the team with 7, with Travis Taylor right behind him with 6. Troy Williamson did some good with the four passes thrown his way, but Marcus Robinson was a non-factor, except for one long play down the sideline that Dwight Smith left him wide open for. This team has too many perimeter receivers and will miss Nate Burleson dearly for as long as he’s out. And the bottom line is that Culpepper doesn’t have too much confidence in anyone right now. He’ll throw to them if they’re running free, as they were against the Saints. But against the Falcons, I think they’re going to continue to struggle.

—
ARZ- Anquan Boldin led the team with 12 targets, and he has 30 on the year. Larry Fitzgerald had only 6 passes thrown his way, as he’s clearly the guy opposing defenses want to stop first. Adam Bergen is the starting TE for this team right now, but his chances have been limited. Marcell Ship had another good game running the ball, but his playing time was again limited. This game was 10-9 Seahawks at the half and then 24-9 Seahawks 5 minutes into the third and 31-12 Seahawks after three quarters. The Cardinals defense is very vulnerable up the middle and the only thing they do well (rush the passer) can be partially negated when they play a team like Seattle who uses mostly three and five step drops. Kurt Warner’s groin injury is a serious one, so look for Josh McCown to start more than just this week. I think the Cards are better off with him in there anyway. Arizona has been terrible inside their opponents thirty yard line this year.

SEA- As I mentioned above, Seattle’s strengths on offense really played well into Arizona’s problems on defense. Bobby Engram again had a fine game, catching 5 balls on 8 targets. Darrell Jackson was the team leader with 13, as Arizona played their DBs 10 yards off the line for much of the game. Jerramy Stevens getting chances as the lone TE threat. He picked up 3 catches on 4 targets (including one in the red zone to set up a Alexander TD). Seneca Wallace and Peter Warrick hooked up on a nice 42 yard pass play. It was the first ball thrown to Warrick all season. PDub did a nice job returning punts as well.

—
KC- Tony Gonzalez had a tough time against the Broncos’ linebackers. He did get a season high 9 targets, but caught just 5 of them for a lowly 29 yards. As I expected, he is way behind last year’s pace. Eddie Kennison is still the receiver leader. He picked up 8 catches on 11 targets. The Chiefs tried to get the ball to Sammy Parker too. He got 9 passes, but caught just two of them. KC gets the Eagles at home this week.

DEN- With 17-0 first quarter lead, the Broncos ran the ball for much of the game. They are still a two WR team though, and Rod Smith led the team with 8 targets. After a couple of poor outings, the tight end has temporarily disappeared from this offense. Jeb Putzier did not get one pass his way and Stephen Alexander got only one. The Broncos’ schedule doesn’t get any easier on their short week. They travel to Jacksonville and I hope they saved some real good plays for the Jags. Actually, I’ll be picking against them. So I hope the didn’t.

—
NYG- Depsite missing the first quarter, Plaxico Burress led the team in targets for the third straight week. He had 5 catches on 11 passes. David Tyree was active as well, with 5 catches on 6 targets. Amani Toomer had his biggest game of the year, with 8 targets, but clearly he’s Eli Manning’s third favorite receiver on this team. Jeremy Shockey went 6 for 9, but he didn’t get any red zone chances. Those went to back up Visanthe Shiancoe (two).

SD- The Chargers got back to doing what worked for them last year. Antonio Gates caught six more passes on six targets. And LT picked up 7 targets to go with his 21 carries and 1 pass attempt. Keenan McCardell saw his targets fall to just 4, but he made the most of them, catching each for a total of 80 yards and two scores.

Wednesday Football

It works better for me to do the Targets by game, as I’m now able to watch every play via Directv’s Short Cuts.

CAR- I talked last week about how Steve Smith wasn’t the only receiver getting chances. Well, in week three, he was. Smith took in 15 targets and caught 11 of them for 170 yards and three scores. Two of those touchdowns came inside the five yard line, and the other came on a skinny post, with Smith showing that he’s a top talent. Incidently, as if we needed more proof that Jake Delhomme has complete confidence in his top receiver, Smith’s first touchdown came on an out route that wasn’t particularly open. Kerry Colbert once again took the goose egg on catches, and the four balls he did have thrown his way were close to meaningless. And even though he played out of the slot for most of the game, Ricky Proehl looked like he was getting more looks than any receiver not named Smith. I only saw Rod Gardener on the field once, although I wasn’t really ever looking for him. Inside the red zone, this is still Stephen Davis’ team. He got three more RZ chances, giving him 10 on the year.

MIA- Even though Chris Chambers is currently on pace for just 821 yards after three games, I really think he’s going to have a fine season. He’s been the target leader among the Miami WRs in every game so far and has 32 total targets on the year. With only 14 catches, the chances are there for him to improve his production. Chambers’ 42 yard, one-handed touchdown catch made all the highlight reels. Marty Booker is still the #2 WR, and he picked up 6 more targets. But I’d say that Randy McMichael is the guy that Gus Ferrotte looks to after Chambers. McMichael only had one catch on 5 targets, but it was good for a score.

—
CIN- Chris Henry is proving that he was more than worth the third round pick Cincinnati used on him. For the second week in a row, Henry caught 4 passes on 4 targets but this time out, he added a nice 38 yard touchdown catch. Henry is still the third option on this team, but he’s clearly surpassed Kelley Washington on the depth chart and was a big reason the Bengals could let Peter Warrick go. CJ and TJ each picked up 5 targets, while Chris Perry had 4 and now has 14 on the season.

CHI- Even though the Bears got blown out, they were able to move the ball a little bit against Cincinnati. And playing from behind early, Orton was forced to throw more often than he has in either of his other two games. To the Bears credit, however, they did not give up on the ground game even when down by two scores. For the third week in a row, Muhsin Muhammed was the leading target (12). Rookie Mark Bradley had a second best 8 targets. He’s a great run after the catch guy that should get more looks as he grows accustomed to the NFL. Bobby Wade picked up 4 catches on 7 targets, playing as the team’s #2 for much of the game.

—
NYJ- They’re obviously in trouble and should be on the phone offering Tennessee anything they want for Billy Volek. Chris Baker is still looking good as the #1 TE. He went 3 for 3, including a nice little mini-screen pass that went for 30 yards. Justin McCareins pulled in only 1 of the 7 passes thrown to him. Some were drops over the middle but there were a few poorly thrown balls in there as well. He really isn’t the solid #2 receiver the Jets thought they were getting last year. Laveraneus Coles picked up just 17 yards on 4 catches and 6 targets. He was badly underthrown on a couple of occasions. Starting Brooks Bollinger isn’t really the worse thing that could happen to this team. He’s a third year guy now and Pennington was really limiting what they could execute on the field. If Bollinger can take control of the offense, he can be a decent game manager and still give this team a chance. If I were the Jets, I’d be more concerned with the way their defense has looked soft at the most inappropriate times.

JAX- The Jags are doing a lot to get the ball in Matt Jones’ hands. He led the team with 7 targets against the Jets, but Jones is still not yet a reliable receiver over the middle. Ernest Wilford is still making the most of limited opportunities. He caught two balls on 3 targets and is 4/6 on the year. Leftwich likes to go to the 6-4 receiver in tough situations. Wilford is very reliable over the middle and can be counted to to make every attempt to get the ball into his hands. Jimmy Smith was practically nonexistent for all of the game until he scored in OT to win it. Smith ended with 2 catches on 4 targets. Alvin Pearman is doing an ok job as a punt returner. He’s good at keeping his shoulders square and upfield, no matter which direction he’s going. Pearman has also looked very powerful and very elusive running the ball in limited time on offense. He’s clearly the guy the Jags will go to if Taylor misses time.

Jacksonville is going to finish around 12-4 this year. We know their defense is good, and the offense under new coordinator Carl Smith has proven it can come up with a big play when needed. But the Jags special teams are terrific. Their kickoffs go for touchbacks. Their punt are well covered, but they do need to figure out who can return kickoffs now that they’ve released Chad Owens.

—
TB- I’ll keep talking about how Carnell Williams is being overused until he’s on the IR or sees his work load descreased. It’s amazing to me that Jon Gruden would let Thomas Jones go in part because he didn’t fit into the offensive scheme, and then go and change the identity of the team after drafting Williams. Anyhow, after a quiet week 2, Joey Galloway picked up 8 more targets. He caught 5 of them 53 yards and two scores, both inside the twenty. Michael Clayton took in 7 targets, and is as steady as they come (8 last week, 7 before that). Williams took 6 rushing chances inside the red zone.

GB- I should probably include the Bucs’ DBs on this list as well. Twenty percent of Favre’s compeltions went to Tampa’s secondary. Robert Ferguson is stepping up as the team’s #2 threat. He went 4 for 8 with 68 yards and a score against the slow footed Juran Bolden. The Packers only held the ball for 3:29 in the fourth quarter, so that’s part of the reason Favre only threw 24 passes while trailing for most of the game. Donald Driver was held to just 2 catches on 4 targets.

Tuesday Football

• Holy injury cows.
  All out for the season:
  Rodney Harrison - Chad Pennington - Takeo Spikes -
  Rashaun Woods - Fernando Bryant - Willie Offord - Jay Bellamy
  
  Then there’s:
  Ahmed Plummer - Junior Seau - Aaron Stecker -
  Champ Bailey - Kurt Warner - Darwin Walker - Willie Anderson,
  all could be or are out for this week.


• A few highlights from the quotes on Len Pasquarelli’s Morning After column this week:

  One reason that [Seattle quarterback] Matt Hasselbeck has been steadier this year is because they are starting [wide receiver] Bobby Engram now. He’s always been a great slot receiver, but the guy is making plays on the outside, and he’s a great double-move receiver. And he isn’t nearly as schizophrenic as [deposed wide receiver] Koren Robinson was.”

  “The Browns need to keep [veteran wide receiver] Antonio Bryant away from the kid, [first-round wideout] Braylon Edwards. Bryant has become a good player but he’s still immature and he and Edwards both drew [taunting] flags Sunday that really hurt the offense. If Bryant ever grows up, he could be a good player, but he does [stupid] stuff, and you don’t want it rubbing off on Edwards, believe me.”

  There are a lot of tailbacks being shopped around the league right now. In addition to Michael Bennett (Minnesota) and Lee Suggs (Cleveland), Dallas would send Anthony Thomas somewhere for the right price and Houston might deal Tony Hollings if anyone is interested.

• Jon Gruden on Carnell Williams:

  “We wouldn’t be putting him in these situations if we didn’t think he could do it,” Coach Jon Gruden said today. “”It’s not a coincidence that he’s playing his best football late in games, so as long as he can take it, we’ll continue to give him these opportunities.”

  If Carnell’s body looked anything like his uniform did on Sunday, he was pretty torn up. Williams is on pace for 2314.66 carries this year. Yes carries. I swear it.


• The Texans are excited about new offensive coordinator Joe Pendry.


• Trevor Pryce thinks Priest Holmes is playing injured.


• Talk of the Raiders’ stalled running game.


• Pro Football Weekly’s site is down for maintenance, so I will link the rest of the material I have when it comes back up.

• From PFW’s The Way We Hear It:
  
  
  • MIA- The Dolphins also believe that the return of Ricky Williams, who will take over the starting role in Week Six, will bring out the best in both players (Ronnie Brown).
  • CLE- One of the biggest beneficiaries in offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon’s attack has been TE Steve Heiden, who caught nine passes in the first two weeks. With Aaron Shea out of the lineup for the time being, Heiden has become the team’s best target at the position… Expect Heiden to continue being a big part of the passing offense; Dilfer has stressed from the beginning that he’ll look for the tight end, according to Heiden.
  • BAL- Can FB Alan Ricard help the Ravens’ sagging rushing attack return to form? Expect Ricard to play a bigger role in the offense in the weeks to come. Ricard was demoted in the Ravens’ first two games, with the team electing to go away from the I-formation. The decision may have played a role in RB Jamal Lewis’ struggles in the first two games; without Ricard, an effective lead blocker for Lewis the previous three seasons, Lewis managed only 57 yards on 26 carries.
  • MIN- Much of Culpepper’s past routine that set him in a comfort zone — namely, four days of detailed film breakdown, play rehearsal and written tests on Saturday with Linehan — was shattered by the coach’s departure to Miami. By the same token, C Matt Birk was a constant in many of those meetings and had a special session with Culpepper after game-plan installation on Wednesdays. In an attempt to remedy the situation, head coach Mike Tice now sends play calls directly to Culpepper’s ear — as opposed to having the orders relayed from the coordinator through the backup quarterback to Culpepper, as they were last year and in the first two games of ’05. Tice also will take extra steps during the week to aid in the preparation of the quarterback. His new strategy paid off in Week Three, as Culpepper responded with a big game and the Vikings notched their first win of the year.
  • DET- Two changes on the offensive line — ORT Kelly Butler, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, replaced Stockar McDougle, and OLG Rick DeMulling, a free-agent signee who left the Colts, is starting — have contributed to slowing down RB Kevin Jones. Jones averaged 4.7 yards per carry as a rookie, and that was with ORG Damien Woody carrying too much weight and C Dominic Raiola struggling. But Jones’ current average of 3.3 yards (33 carries for 109 yards) is poor, and the coaches expecting better. The return of FB Cory Schlesinger (broken leg) in October should help, but the Lions are preaching to their receivers and linemen about finishing blocks to create bigger gains.
  • NO- Once known only for his prima donna antics, including his infamous cell-phone celebration during a nationally televised game, Saints WR Joe Horn has become a team leader on and off the field as the Saints deal with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. We hear that before the season began, Horn told media members that he would only be available for interviews on Fridays. But since the Gulf Coast tragedy, Horn has become the face of the team, respectfully handling media requests on an almost daily basis.


• And from this week’s ‘Whispers’:
  • Don’t be shocked if Tyson Thompson and Marion Barber move ahead of Anthony Thomas on the Cowboys’ RB pecking order. Bill Parcells likes Thompson’s special-teams impact and could reward him with more carries, and he thinks Barber can handle kickoff coverage after failing there in the preseason.
  • Our Seahawks sources said newly acquired WR Peter Warrick came up with three one-handed catches in practice leading up to the team’s game vs. Arizona that had to be seen to be believed.
  • There is a feeling among some close to the Ravens that the defense would be better-served using a simpler approach coming out of the bye. Word is the defense’s frequent pre-snap movement and adjustments could be more of a hindrance than a help at this point.
  • At least one veteran Baltimore observer claims to have never seen head coach Brian Billick as shaken as he was after the team’s Week Two loss at Tennessee.
  • Barring a series of poor outings, the Vikings plan to stick with Mewelde Moore as their No. 1 running back
  
  The first of the Targets stuff will be up later tonight

Sunday Football

• Trends:
  • Buffalo has covered six of its last seven games at home.
  • Carolina is 7-2-1 against the spread in its last 10 contests
  • Miami is 3-1 against the number in its last four games vs. NFC teams, and five of its last six home contests have gone over the total.
  • he Bengals are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games vs. NFC teams.
  • The Bears are 25-15 against the spread in their last 40 games as a home dog.
  • Indy has covered eight of its last 10 games as a favorite of more than 10 points.
  • Jacksonville has covered the last three meetings with the Jets, all of which have stayed under the total.
  • Minnesota has failed to cover its last seven regular-season games, and its last five games, including playoffs, have stayed under the total.
  • The Eagles are 8-2 vs. the spread in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
  • The Packers have covered their last three games as a home dog and are 13-6-1 against the number in their last 20 contests as a home dog, but they haven’t been a home dog since 2001.
  • Tennessee has failed to cover its last four road contests and is 4-8 against the spread in its last 12 road games
  • Of Arizona’s last nine road games, seven have gone over the total (18 of its last 25 road contests have gone over). The Cardinals covered both meetings with Seattle last season.
  • Dallas has covered its last two games as a road favorite and has covered three of its last four road contests overall.
  • New England is 6-0-1 vs. the number in its last seven games as a dog and 25-10-1 in the last 36 contests when getting points.
  • Of the Chargers’ last nine home games, seven have gone over the total, including their last three home games vs. NFC teams.
  • The last seven meetings between Denver and KC teams have gone over the total.
  
  
• I can’t believe the Bengals are only giving away three points today. Cincinnati is a 12-4 team while Chicago is still just an 8-8 group because of their offense. And remember what the Colts did to the Bears last year in Chicago? Sure the Bears defense is healthy, but still the final score was 41-10. How will Chicago’s offense be able to keep up with Cincinnati’s. It’s just not going to happen. Against the Lions last week, the Bears had one drive on offense that was longer than 43 yards. One drive. I see a lot of people on the Bears today, but I think this one may get ugly for Chicago.


• And Jacksonvile plus points at the Jets? What?


• Carolina’s defense was really impressive against the Pats last week. They were as physical as I’ve seen anyone be this year. I wonder if they can maintain that today in Miami, coming off such a big win. But because they’re just 1-1 and not 2-0, I don’t think they’ll let down.


• KC Star article on the emerging Sammy Parker.


• Duce Staley will see limited action today. Bettis is out and anyone who watched last week’s Pats game saw how important it was for Carolina to have Stephen Davis running in between the tackles.


• Carnell Williams is playing, but I really don’t see how he gets more than 20 carries.


• Wow, J.J. Arrington lost seven pounds last week.


• Picks have been up. Straight up picks are here. And the Beach’s special guest went 0-2 yesterday, but he looks good with Cincy, Indy, and Tampa Bay today.

Saturday Football

Big day of conference play today and I’m staying away from most of it.


• I know it’s behind espn’s insider wall, but Kirk Herbstreit’s column this week is right on.
  Some hightlights:

  For two years I have been really impressed with the Crimson Tide, but always put an asterisk next to them. Scholarship reductions and probation has affected their depth. This also is a team that cannot afford any injuries. If quarterback Brodie Croyle had stayed healthy last year, Alabama would have given Auburn everything it could handle in the SEC West. Mike Shula’s Crimson Tide is the team to beat, not only in the SEC West but the SEC — as long as Croyle doesn’t get hurt again….
  
  

  No. 11 Purdue at Minnesota — Both teams are unbeaten and thinking about making a run at a Big Ten championship. Minnesota has the best running game in the country (335 yards per game), while the Boilermakers have the best run defense in Division I-A (allowing 18.0 rushing yards per game)…
  
  

  Florida State should be 8-0 heading into November, but I don’t think the Seminoles are a legitimate national title contender until they develop more of an offense. FSU is a team with great athletic ability and its front seven is one of the best in the nation. But with cornerback Antonio Cromartie out for the season, their secondary is vulnerable against a good team….

• Sharpjuice’s NCAA picks around the web are up again, as are their NFL picks around the web.


• Rich Podolsky is off to another slow start this season, but he’s still on with this:

  Last year we pointed out how successful Double-Digit Home Dogs (DDHDs) were, winning at a near 70 percent clip. This season there have been few the first three weeks and they are 3-2-1 to this point. But this week there are eight DDHDs, and we’re grabbing three of them and taking our chances against one. This week’s DDHDs are Army, New Mexico State, Illinois, South Florida, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Washington and Oregon.

  My thoughts:
  
  • Both Army and New Mexico State were DDHD last night and covered.
    
  • Illinois may have its hands full with Michigan State, or the Spartans may lose it outright, based on their performances last year against unranked teams.
    
  • South Florida and Louisville square off tonight in their first Big East Conference clash (the two were both C-USA last year). USF may have the defense and running game to keep this one within three touchdowns, but both the Bulls quarterbacks are easily rattled and Louisville will bring all kinds of heat.
    
  • Georgia plays its first road game of the season tonight against Miss State, who played Florida well in a night, home game last year.
    
  • Kentucky hosts the Gators in a sandwich game, as UF gets Alabama in their next game.
    
  • That Washington game is against Notre Dame, so there’s all kinds of things going on there.
    
  • And Oregon hosts USC, so it’s just a matter of chance because both teams are going to score a lot.
    
    So after a 2-0 night yesterday, DDHD’s ill probably need to be lucky to go 3-3 today.
    But there may be one outright winner lurking among them.
  
  
• My picks will be up by noon EST.
  Plus, a sneak peak at tomorrow’s NFL with The Mirls’ Week 3 Picks- which I am still tied for the lead among 33 others.

Friday Football

BAL- In their first game with Anthony Wright at quarterback, Derrick Mason was the most active Ravens receiver. He caught 8 passes on 10 targets for 60 yards and a score. The tightends, all three of them, were again heavily featured. Heap, Wilcox, and Dinkins had 11 total passes thrown their way. With a bye this week, Baltimore’s top priority is to find their running game.

BUF- J.P. Losman was lucky he didn’t leave Tampa with two or three interceptions to his credit. Josh Reed picked up 7 targets, as did Eric Moulds. But the real story with the Bills right now is with their running back, Willis McGahee. He and Coach Mularkey have had a minor media fued this week in reference to McGahee’s running style lately. I, too, noticed in the preseason that he looked hesitant. The 1-1 Bills face another tough defense this week as they host Atlanta, and McGahee needs to show that he can dominate games because J.P. Losman can’t.

CIN- After picking up 4 more targets against the Vikings, Chris Perry now has 10 total on the season. He also had an impressive 87 yard flare pass called back on Sunday by a holding penalty. Chad Johnson was again the team leader, with 13. He’s on pace for a 184 target season (last year he had 158). Chris Henry looked good, catching 4 of the 4 passes thrown his way. And T.J. Houshmandzadeh picked up 4 red zone targets.

CLE- Trent Dilfer is doing a good job so far this season at getting the ball out of his hands quickly. He’s also spreading his targets around well. Steve Heiden led the team with 8, as the Packers have been hurt by tight ends a lot this year (Marcus Pollard in week 1). Billy Miller also got a chance in the end zone that was knocked away by a defender. As expected, Frisman Jackson only had two passes thrown his way and everyone saw what Braylon Edwards did with three of his four targets. The Browns will face a very fast Colts defense this week, and I expect their rather immobile offensive line to have all kinds of troubles.

DEN- The Broncos did all they could to lose to the Chargers, but it didn’t take. Denver turned the ball over twice inside the Chargers’ 30 and Elam missed two field goals in their first 8 possessions. But 10 fourth quarter points led them to a key divisional victory. Rod Smith (11) and Ashley Lelie (10) led the team in targets and Jeb Putzier had a surprisingly low 3. Charlie Adams seems to still be the #3 WR, as he got 4 passes thrown to him. Darius Watts had just one. The Broncos host KC on Monday night, and they should doing so with an 0-2 record. Still, they also could have beaten San Diego by three touchdowns. Denver’s defense played well.

HOU- Awful.

IND- The Colts are going to expload this week, I can just feel it. They’ve faced two of the best defenses in the league, and yes they are going against Romeo Crennel this week but his Browns just don’t have the talent to do what the Pats have done in the past. Dallas Clark played his first game of the season and he picked up 3 targets. The WR trio maitained their form; Harrison 8, Wayne 7, Stokely 5.

JAX- Reggie Williams continued his rise, with 4 catches on 5 targets. The Jags also kept Matt Jones involved with 3 targets. But Jimmy Smith is still the clear #1. He picked up 7 passes.

KC- Almost by default, Eddie Kennison is still the top WR on the Chiefs. He had a career high 1086 yards in just 14 games last year. He picked up 102 targets last year and is on pace for 104 this season. But I still like #2 guy Sammy Parker. He had 6 passes thrown to him against Oakland, catching 3 for a 28.7 ypc average. In the red zone, the Chiefs went to their running backs 10 times in week one, and 11 times last week. Tony Gonzalez has just two RZ chances on the season. He’s a little behind his three year average of 21.6 and he’s got those talented Denver linebackers to deal with this week.

MIA- Randy McMichael was busy against the Jets, pulling in 8 passes on 11 targets. On the year, he has 14 catches on 18 targets, and four looks inside the red zone. Chris Chambers is also getting a lot of passes, as he has 20 targets on the year and five inside the twenty. But Chambers only has 6 receptions so far.

NE- Daniel Graham only got one pass thrown his way in week two, but it was a 1 yard touchdown strike. Ben Watson is still the top TE target, he got 5 more passes thrown to him against Carolina. Deion Branch (14, 25 in two weeks) is the clear #1 and David Givens (9) a solid #2 guy. New England’s offense really struggled last week. They only ran one play in the red zone (Graham) and that was only after Troy Brown’s 71 yard pass play that ended on the 1. Their best starting field position was from their own 33 and they made it into Carolina territory just four times (TD, INT, FG, Fumble).

NYJ- Laveranues Coles and Justin McCareins had identical target numbers in week two (10 and 8, respectively). Not too much else going on here. The Jets are still finding their way around their new offense.

OAK- Lamont Jordan had a tough time hanging on to the ball against the Chiefs. He caught just 6 of the 11 passes thrown to him. Many of those incompletes were due to Jordan trying to run with the catch too soon. I still think he’s a above average receiver, especially considering his size. The errors he made Sunday night were not really physical; he definitely has the hands to catch 70-80 passes this year and he’s obviously going to get the chance to in this offense (see the OAK preview). After two weeks, it looks like I might be wrong about Randy Moss. He’s got 10 catches and two scores so far and that’s in line with the projections I had him at. But the 257 yards he’s racked up is way ahead of the pace I’d thought he’d go on. In fact, he’s on pace for 2056 and even though it’s only two games, I didn’t see him getting to 1600. But that looks to be where Moss is headed. He’s getting the ball thrown to him plenty (22 total targets). Jerry Porter had 11 targets in week two and with Ronald Curry out of the year, Porter should see an increase in his production. Also look for Doug Gabriel to make an impact as he returns this week from a finger injury.

PIT- All of these crazy Pittsburgh stats are either very misleading or they underscore how fantastic this team is playing. We’ll find out this week, but from my point of view, it looks like they are rolling.

SD- The Chargers got Antonio Gates involved right away, as he went 8 for 8 in passes. Keenan McCardell continued his high pace with 8 more targets, giving him 22 on the year. And not only has LT not caught a pass all season, but he’s only been thrown one ball.

TEN- Steve McNair used his back heavily against the Ravens, throwing 15 passes to the trio of Chris Brown, Travis Henry, and Troy Fleming. In turn, the tight ends saw considerably fewer balls (4, down from 13). The wide receivers were led by Drew Bennett (8) and Brandon Jones (6). The Titans are back on the road to St. Louis this week.

And from the NFC…
CAR- The Pats were focused on slowing Steve Smith. He only had 4 catches on 6 targets for 34 yards. Keary Colbert had 7 balls thrown his way but didn’t come down with one. Ricky Proehl stepped up for the Panthers, catching 3 of 3. And Rod Gardner, who reportedly has been slow to learn the offense, picked up one red zone chance. It’s Stephen Davis’ team inside the twenty, he scored 3 RZ touchdowns on 6 chances.

Wednesday Football

ARZ- The Cards really struggled against a Rams defense they should have performed better against. Arizona failed to score a touchdown on four different drives inside the 30. Kurt Warner, despite throwing for 327 yards, had a tough time finding targets when it mattered most. After getting 15 throws in week one, Larry Fitzgerald only got 5 against the Rams. Anquan Boldin led the team with 9 in week two, including three looks inside the red zone. Poor Bryan Johnson has just 4 catches on 18 targets through two weeks.

Marcel Shipp had a solid game, but he was underused with just 12 carries. He did catch five of the six passes thrown his way. With J.J. Arrington struggling (he’s not a good fit for this offense), I’ve expected Shipp to take over the running duties for the Cardinals.

And just on a side note, there’s not a better home field kicker in the NFL right now than Neil Rackers.

ATL- Rising star Michael Jenkins had another strong game, he led the Falcons with 6 targets. But inside the twenty, Vick looked to Brian Finneran three times. Since there’s a good chance that Matt Schaub is starting this weekend against Buffalo, I expect Finneran to have another good week- especially if he gets matched up against the 5′9 Terrance McGee near the goalline.

CHI- Mushin Muhammad is going to led the way as long as he’s healthy, and the former Panther got 9 passes thrown to him on Sunday. But inside the 20, with a rookie QB, the Bears are a running team. On the season, Thomas Jones has 6 redzone carries and Cedric Benson has 1, while Orton has thrown just three passes (all against the Redskins).

DAL- Jason Witten picked up 6 targets on Monday night after just getting one pass thrown his way in week one. Terry Glenn was the Cowboys’ leader against Washington, with 9 targets, 6 catches, 157 yards (long of 70) and a score.

DET- Joey Harrington is still staring down his receivers and against the Bears, he focused on Roy Williams 13 times. Kevin Johnson tied Charles Rogers for second on the team with 9, and it looks like Harrington has a lot of confidence in Johnson- leaving rookie Mike Williams with very little playing time. Detroit threw the ball way to much against Chicago. What success they had last year, they did by running Kevin Jones 25-30 times and not the 8 he got in Chicago.

GB- With Javon Walker out, Terrance Murphy picked up 6 targets. Donald Driver was the team leader for the second week in a row, this time with 8. Also for the second week in a row, Favre threw to his backs heavily, giving them 13 passes (17 last week). Favre has thrown 44 passes in each of the first two games of the season. It’s going to be a long year. The Packers host 2-0 Tampa Bay this week.

MIN- Daunte Culpepper showed me a side of him I haven’t seen in years, as he threw 5 interceptions to the Bengals. Most of those came late in the game, and after they got down 14-0 early, I can only describe Culpepper as being on Tilt. I don’t know if he’s frustrated with the playcalling, but I sure would be. Losing Randy Moss didn’t have to be a big deal if the Vikings took the off-season to refocus their strategy towards the current strengths of the roster. That seems to have not happened. It’s like they’re still running the same exact offensive system.

Up until the very end of the third quarter, Minnesota’s plays were as unimaginative as they were unproductive. There were few or no slants, hitches, screens, draws, and traps called. Instead, it looked like: run, go deep, go deep, punt. But then towards the fourth quarter, things started to open up. The Vikings started throwing those shorter slants and quick hitches. They mixed in a few runs on pass looks, and they looked to exploit the first 15 yards from scrimmage more than the second. At home against the Saints this week, I expect this offense to finally produce.

That said, I just don’t see how Michael Bennett can be this team’s starting running back. He doesn’t catch the ball exceptionally well. He doesn’t run with exceptional power. He doesn’t really do anything really well except run fast. Bennett did start the Bengals game with a couple of great runs on the edge, but then he fumbled going up the middle and then fumbled again a few minutes later twice and it was all over from there for him and for Minnesota.

And I don’t know if Mewelde Moore is the answer for this season either. The Vikings really need more of a playmaker at that position They need someone like Lamont Jordan. So keep an eye on Ciatrick Fason.

Travis Taylor took in 12 targets against the Bengals, and he caught 7 of them. With Minnesota down 27-0 at halftime, rookie Troy Williamson got some action in the second half. He took in 2 passes on 4 targets.

NO- For as long Aaron Brooks in the Saints’ QB, Joe Horn is as steady a target as they come. After getting 13 targets on Monday night, Horn has had one game since the start of 2004 with fewer than 7 passes thrown his way. I’m also impressed with Donte Stallworth this year. He pulled in 8 passes on 12 targets against the Giants. For the year, Donte has 12 catched on 17 throws. For the second straight week, Ernie Conwell had two red zone targets and he has 10 anywhere targets on the season. Conwell is a big part of this offense.

NYG- Eli seems to really enjoy throwing to the 6′5 Plaxico Burress. After giving him 11 passes in week one, Manning threw 10 more Burress’ way on Monday night. But Burress has just 10 catches on those 21 targets so far this season. Jeremy Shockey went 5 for 6 and is now 7 for 8 on the year.

PHI- After relying to much on TO and BW last week (29 of McNabb’s 45 passes), with a big lead the Eagles were able to spread it around against the 49ers. Greg Lewis was clearly the #2 WR on Sunday, getting 7 targets over the entire game. Rookie Reggie Brown picked up 3, all in the second half. TO had 7, but the team leader LJ Smith broke out with 9 catches on 9 targets, 119 yards and a touchdown. Smith is still the only viable TE on this team and this kind of game won’t be out of the ordinary for the tight end. The Eagles’ offensive line did a real nice job protecting McNabb in the face of a very good SF pass rush.

SEA- Bobby Engram is still going strong, with 8 more targets on Sunday. Darrell Jackson was the team leader with 11, but Jerramy Stevens was again well featured, with 5 targets.

SF- Not much doing for the 49ers against Philly, but Arnez Battle is indeed the best receiver on this team. With 6 targets last week and 7 more this past Sunday, Battle has 9 catches on the year for 103 yards. Alex Smith did come in and run three plays before going off for a punt.

STL- Marc Bulger only had to throw 29 times against the Cardinals. Holt and Bruce are still the top pair, with Holt getting 7 targets and Bruce 8. Kevin Curtis has an ankle injury, and he was limited against Arizona, but he still got 4 passes. The Rams should look to strike through the air this week, as they host the Titans.

TB- With an early lead at home, the Bucs didn’t have to throw much. Joey Galloway’s numbers fell hard, with just 2 targets. Michael Clayton got 8, however, and with the 7 he got in week one, he’s Griese’s top threat.

WAS- Of course Santana Moss caught the two big ones, but he also pulled in three other of the 7 total passes thrown his way against Dallas. David Patten got 5 targets, but the production just hasn’t been there so far. There were no trips to the red zone this week, but Robert Royal still got 4 passes thrown to him and Chris Cooley got 3.

Tuesday Football

• Len Pasquarelli’s morning after is usually a good read. This week, he leads with the Vikings’ struggles (which I’ll have more on when I get to the targets stats). Len’s scouts takes are especially strong this week:

  “It’s going to big a big year for [Colts tailback] Edgerrin James, at least if defenses keep trying to play the way Jacksonville did on Sunday. It seems like the philosophy now is to just drop eight [defenders] against [Peyton] Manning and try to get him to grow impatient and force some balls.”

  “If you saw [tailback] Ron Dayne on Sunday, you’d swear the Broncos could put anybody back there and he’d gain yards.

  “Jeff Fisher [of Tennessee] can flat-out coach. That team was absolutely [lousy] last week, but he worked them hard, got them fired up about playing a [Baltimore] team they don’t like, and just whipped the Ravens.”

• Here’s more on Dayne- and here too- but word is that Mike Anderson is still the starter.


• As if there was any doubt at this point, Bill Cowher says:

  Willie’s starting again next week,” coach Bill Cowher said after Parker rattled off his third consecutive 100-yard game rushing. “He’s our starter.”

• Right now, Derrick Blaylock is the only man standing in the Jets’ backfield.


• I noted last week that Carnell Williams took a lot of hits in his first game as a pro. Well this past Sunday against the Bills, he took even more. Williams is hard to tackle, but he also makes a lot more contact with defenders than most backs do. As a result, I fear for his long-term health. On Monday, Carnell was walking in a boot cast.


• The Texans’ firing of Chris Palmer is a very loud warning shot to everyone involved in Houston’s offense. There is really no excuse for why the Texans have looked like they are still learning their system.


• The Bengals were flagged for 17 penalties against Minnesota, many of them were dumb penalties too. I did some research during the offseason to track how teams did the week after registering 80+ penalty yards. I guess I’ll post those charts later, but essentially, teams who win with a lot of penalties continue winning and teams who lose with a lot of penalties continue losing.


• Praise from the Seattle News Tribune for Shawn Alexander


• Nate Burleson and Darren Sharper’s injuries are only considered minor.


• I know Chad Owens has struggled, but I was shocked to see that Jacksonville released him.


• From this week’s PFW’s ‘The Way We Hear It:’

  MIA- Early returns from South Florida indicate that veteran DT Keith Traylor is the lynchpin to the Dolphins’ defense. Said fellow DT Vonnie Holliday, “The only time he’s moved is if he guesses wrong and steps with the wrong foot or goes the wrong way. But nobody’s going to move him up out of there. Double-, triple- (teaming), he’s not going to lose his ground. He stays there.” A big beneficiary of Traylor’s play is undersized MLB Zach Thomas, who was freed up to make 26 tackles in the first two games.

  NYJ- We hear that the sideline altercation in Week One between DT James Reed and MLB Jonathan Vilma — which culminated with Reed punching Vilma in the face — is likely an early sign of how much the Jets miss NT Jason Ferguson, who signed with the Cowboys via free agency this offseason. Reed is undersized compared to Ferguson and seemed to have some problems holding up at the point of attack.

  OAK- With all the offseason hype surrounding the additions of WR Randy Moss and RB LaMont Jordan, it was quietly assumed the offensive line would be a very solid group. But sources in Oakland now say they may have overrated Oakland’s blockers a bit and question whether they can regularly provide the time necessary for QB Kerry Collins and the Raiders’ downfield passing game to thrive.

  MIN- Michael Bennett’s unimpressive Week One outing vs. Tampa Bay (six carries, minus-1 yard) and then his critical fumble in Week Two helped pull Mewelde Moore out of the doghouse. Moore, versatile but inconsistent in pass protection, had been on the bad side of head coach Mike Tice since Moore missed almost half of his rookie season recovering from a high left ankle sprain… But as questions arise about Bennett as the No. 1 back, Moore is squeezing back into the picture. He’ll be on a short leash once again, but the job appears to be there for the taking if Moore can remain healthy.

  ARZ- At the root of the Cardinals’ rushing problems is an offensive line that, if anything, has gotten steadily weaker in Green’s tenure as head coach. Clearly, his curious decisions to release talented linemen such as C Pete Kendall and OT L.J. Shelton look even more ill-advised considering the state of his current O-line.

• And finally, from PFW’s Whispers:

  Jaguars QB Byron Leftwich clearly is being showcased as the team’s featured offensive player until RB Fred Taylor proves he is 100 percent. The team wants to pass to get a lead and then hand the ball to Taylor to kill the clock.

  Word out of Kansas City is that we shouldn’t be surprised if OLT Willie Roaf misses more than just Week Two with his strained hamstring.

  While it would appear Darrell Jackson, Bobby Engram and Joe Jurevicius have settled nicely into the Seahawks’ Nos. 1, 2 and 3 WR spots, respectively, our sources in Seattle suspect ex-Bengals first-round pick Peter Warrick has a chance to push his way into the three-deep picture or, at the very least, figure much more in the mix as the fourth receiver in four-WR sets.

  Our sources in Charlotte indicate that WR Rod Gardner is not picking up the Panthers’ offense as quickly as they had hoped and that’s why he was inactive for Week One.

  It should be noted that the Giants list RB Derrick Ward as Tiki Barber’s backup, even though rookie Brandon Jacobs has gotten most of the attention. The team thinks it has one of the best RB situations in the league and is able to give Barber more rest with such good depth.

First Year Gift

Last monday was the one year anniversiary of this website. So this past week, I went working on this new banner. I’ll be tweaking the language a bit in the future, I’m sure. But there it is. I’ll also be on the lookout for more breakaways to include.

Sunday Football

• Favorites were 9-7 ATS in Week One, a .583 success rate.


• Lots of conflicting trends today, all over the league. Should be a wiild afternoon:
  • The Titans are 1-3 vs. the number in the last four games as a home dog.
  • Buffalo has covered its last four road games and is 6-0-1 against the number in its last seven contests vs. NFC teams.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-3-1 in their last five games vs. AFC foes and have failed to cover their last three home openers.
  • The Lions have covered four of their last six games overall and four of the last six meetings vs. the Bears.
  • The Jaguars have covered five of their last six games but are 1-4 against the spread in the last five contests vs. AFC South rivals.
  • Of Indy’s last 16 home games, including playoffs, 12 have gone over the total.
  • Minnesota has covered its last five games vs. AFC teams but is 1-8 against the number in its last nine contests as a road dog of three or fewer points
  • The Panthers are 3-11 vs. the spread in their last 11 home games but are 32-15-2 against the number in the last 49 contests as an underdog and 11-4-1 in their last 16 games as a home dog.
  • The Texans are 9-3-1 vs. the spread in their last 13 home games, and their last six games have stayed under the total.
  • The 49ers have covered four of the last five meetings vs. Philadelphia.
  • Philadelphia is 12-3 vs. the number in its last 15 games as a home favorite of between 7.5-10 points.
  • Of the Seahawks’ last 14 regular-season games, 12 have gone over the total (including the last four).
  • The Rams are 3-8 against the number in their last 11 road contests and 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games as a road favorite.
  • The Packers are 2-8 vs. the spread in their last 10 home games, including playoffs, and are 0-3-1 against the number in their last four games vs. AFC teams.
  • Seven of the last nine meetings between the Jets and Dolphins have stayed under the total.
  • The Chargers are 1-4-2 against the number in their last seven games vs. the Broncos and 6-11-1 in the last 18 contests vs. Denver.
  • Kansas City is 2-7 vs. the number in its last nine games as a road favorite.
  • New Orleans is 8-1 against the number in its last nine contests as a dog and has covered its first road game in six of the last seven seasons.
  • Dallas has covered the last seven meetings with Washington and 13 of the last 14 battles.


• Remeber that Denver’s athletic linebackers did a good job in containing Antonio Gates last year.


• Also note that Mike Anderson says he’s ready to go today.


• John Czarnecki’s gameday notes:
  • There is a chance that Arizona rookie RB J.J. Arrington won’t play because of an illness.
  • ‘Pacman’ Jones, a healthy scratch in the opener, is expected to start at RCB for Tony Beckham
  • QB Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start despite a bruised bone in his left knee.
  • Look for the Seahawks to come out and use as many as three and four receivers because the Falcons not only lost top nickel back Kevin Mathis (major knee surgery) but also kick returner and sixth defensive back Allen Rossum.
  • Ex-Eagle DT Corey Simon reported at 344 pounds to the Colts; he’s lost 20 pounds already.
  • In four straight losses in Denver’s Invesco Field, the Chargers have scored only three first-half points.
  • Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer (3-13) never does well in Denver.
  • The Packers tried to sign Koren Robinson on Monday, but the ex-Seahawk decided to remain with the Vikings.
  • Jets new WR Laveranues Coles dropped two TD passes in the loss to KC.
  • Jets LB Jonathan Vilma was sporting a left-eye shiner after being punched on the sideline by defensive teammate James Reed during last week’s loss to the Chiefs.
  • With the Chiefs minus DT Ryan Sims (foot), look for the Raiders to come out running with Lamont Jordan and Zack Crockett. It’s also part of the keep-away strategy to keep the Oakland defense off the field.


• Michael Strahan, despite being listed as questionable, vows to play on Monday night.


• Rookie RT Jamaal Brown did a good job against Julius Peppers last week, and if Strahan does play tomorrow night, he’ll have faced in back to back games the top two LE’s in the league.


• Reuben Droughns is starting again.


• Finally, a note about the FSU-BC game: I willingly broke one of the golden rules (don’t pick one game more heavily over another) and in the process Jeff Bowden became a real life football coach. It was a nice second half by the Noles offense- as they finally figured out how to beat the Eagles defense. FSU so rarely makes good halftime adjustments on offense, I’m still really surprised by it. But there it is. BC did well what I thought they would, but I also knew that if FSU jumped out to an early first quarter lead, the Eagles probably wouldn’t be able to win it. Time will come to get that one back.


• Picks in by 12:15 EST. Here is the Mirls’ weeks two chart, all are straight up.

Saturday Football

Since I’m going all-in on Boston College this week, check out sharpjuice’s NCAA picks and their NFL picks. They also have links to NFL picks around the web and the same for the NCAA.

There’s also The Mirl’s week two pick compilation (that I’m currently tied for the lead with two others among a field of 34).

And if you’re into that sort of thing, get involved with the Swamp’s week two competition.

The rest of my picks, as always, are here. Enjoy the games.

Florida State at Boston College Preview

Boston College will start at quarterback red-shirt senior, 6′5 235 lbs Quinton Porter, and although in many ways Porter is warming the seat for sophomore QB Matt Ryan to take over next year, Porter is more than a capable quarterback. On the road in BC’s season opener, he completed 77.1% of his passes against BYU and then last week vs Army he connected on 75% of his throws. In those two games, Porter has thrown 4 TDs and 0 INTs and he’s going to be facing a Seminole defensive backfield that looked very shaky against Miami.

At running back, the Eagles sport a couple of talented sophomores in L.V. Whitworth and Andre Callender. Whitworth, a powerful 225lbs back, is the starter but the 5′11 200lbs Callender will get plenty of playing time as well. The duo has combined for 47 rushes and 230 yards so far this season. They are running behind an offensive line that features the mamoth LT Jeremy Trueblood, a projected 2006 first round draft pick by many. From LT all the way across the line to RG, the Eagles feature red-shirt Juniors or higher. (Their starting RT is a 6′7 310lbs red-shirt sophomore.) In total, this starting five has an average size of 6′6 and 313.6lbs. That’s bigger than the Kansas City Chiefs’ starting five. In fact, that’s huge.

None of the Noles’ defensive ends play at a weight more than 250lbs. FSU’s defensive tackles are their strength, but their linebackers are also very light and they are poor tacklers against bigger backs. Had Tyrone Moss not missed most of the Canes’ second half in Tallahassee, Miami probably beats FSU in the opener. On Saturday, Whitworth should feast upon this defense.

On the outside, FSU’s young corners will have to deal with speedy, 6′0 200lbs senior Will Blackmon. FSU lost Antonio Cromartie during the spring and not only was he one of the best corners in the nation, he’s also the only reliable outside cover guy the Noles had. FSU has been playing predominantly man defense since the late 80s and Blackmon should get plenty of chances against these inferioir dbacks.

When the Eagles are on defense, they will be led by preseason All-American Mathias Kiwanuka. This 6′7 261lbs red-shirt senior will line up anywhere to provide all kinds of pressure on the quarterback. FSU’s only chance to slow him is to run right at him but the Seminoles just don’t have the talent along their offensive line to keep Kiwanuka in check for an entire game.

FSU RB’s Lorenzo Booker and Leon Washington are as good as anyone, and Boston College doesn’t really have anyone to matchup against them one on one. But if there’s one thing that we can count on, it’s that FSU’s offensive staff will fail to envision schemes to get their guys like Booker in a position to make plays. And the Eagles’ front seven, as a group, can play with anyone. So while the Noles have talent in their backfield, they don’t have much up front to block for them.

BC’s pass defense is their weakness but that’s why I like them so much in this game. If the game stays close after the first quarter, there’s no way the Seminoles will be able to sustain a balanced offense into the second half. With FSU’s biggest hole being at the quarterback position- as the nation saw two weeks ago against Miami- I’ll take BC’s suspect DBs any day against Drew Weatherford.

FSU’s best players are their freshman. And the Seminoles’ best chance to win is if they play QB Xavier Lee and WR Fred Rouse as much as possible. Both will be among the top athletes available on Saturday, and the only way I can see FSU beating BC in this game is if the Noles get gamebreaking plays from their athletes. But since both Lee and Rouse will probably be on the sidelines for much of the game, it’s therefore hard for me to FSU winning.

Bobby Bowden’s teams have historically been comprised of superior athletes who are historically poor at executing the game’s fundamentals. On the flip side, the fundamentals are exactly what Tom O’Brien’s teams are known to do best. BC has a tradition of being big, tough, and well-coached.

Then consider FSU’s struggles on the road over the last 4 seasons:

Eight of FSU’s 13 regular-season losses dating to the 2001 season have been on the road - including crushing defeats to North Carolina in 2001 and Louisville in 2002. In addition to regular-season losses, FSU lost twice in bowl games.

And look at these stats from the above link that I’ve copied into a table for easy viewing:



FSU ROAD OFFENSE IN 2004
Miami 16, FSU 10
	FSU first-quarter drives (Score: FSU 3-0): 3 and punt; 28-yards/8 plays ending in 45-yard FG: 3 and punt.
	Starting QB: Chris Rix (12-28-108, 2 Int, 0 TD).
	Offensive TDs: 0.
FSU 17, Syracuse 13
	FSU first-quarter drives (score: Syracuse 10-3): 9 plays, 32 yards, punt; 8 plays, 40 yards, 28-yard FG.
	Starting QB: Wyatt Sexton (15 of 26-169, 1 int., 0 TD).
	Offensive TDs: 2 rush.
Maryland 20, FSU 17
	FSU first-quarter drives (score: 3-3): 5 plays, 37 yards, punt; 4 plays, intercepted; 9 plays/39 yards, 48-yard FG.
	Starting QB: Sexton (14-30-164 yards, 2 Int. 0 TD pass).
	Offensive TDs: 1 pass.
FSU 20, Wake Forest 17
	FSU first-quarter drives (score: Wake 7-0): 3 plays and punt; 8 plays, blocked FG attempt; 5 plays, punt; 2 plays, interception returned 19 yards for WF TD.
	Starting QB: Sexton (17-39-194, 2 Int, 2 TD).
	Offensive TDs: 2 pass.
FSU 17, N.C. State 10
	FSU first-quarter drives (score: 0-0): 5 plays, punt; 3 plays, punt; 3 plays, punt; 3 plays, punt.
	Starting QB: Sexton (5 of 18 - 73 yards, 1 int., 0 TD).
	Offensive TDs: 2 rush.


This game is being played at night, on ESPN and the Gameday crew will be there all day, firing up the fans. Reports are that Noles’ center David Castillo will also miss this game with a foot injury. That’s really what seals this game for me, as Castillo is by far the leader of FSU’s line when he’s healthy. When he’s not, the Noles are vulnerable at all three interior spots.

The Eagles are now a +2 dog at home and I still can’t believe that BC covered the spread last week against Army. It was clearly a game that BC was looking ahead to this game against FSU, but still they won 44-7 despite their lack of focus:

”Everyone’s been talking about Florida State since last year,” said linebacker-turned-running back Brian Toal, who scored two touchdowns against Army. ”A couple of guys, including myself, were looking ahead a little bit.”

Despite all that, they rolled over a hard-fighting Army team. So essentially, what you have in the game this Saturday is a bunch of talented freshman going on the road to play in their first college football away game. And they are going up against a seasoned, powerful, and eager squad of experienced upper-classmen looking to make their mark in their school’s first ACC game ever.

The Boston College Eagles easily covered the 28 points they were giving away last week. And still, they are getting +2 at home in this one. I don’t know what the public is thinking, but I have a feeling they are going to pay.

Thursday Football

• Patrick Ramsey has said publically that he did not ask for a trade, as was being reported around the league on Monday.


• Stephen Davis feels ‘no repercussions’ after carrying the ball 13 times for 81 yards in week one.


• Larry Johnson claims he’s innocent and says he won’t miss any playing time as a result of Tuesday’s arrest.


• Eric Allen likes what he sees in the Cheifs’ defense. Allen notes that the addition of Sammy Knight is just as important as Surtain’s, Bell’s, or Johnson’s:

  Knight is always around the ball and forcing turnovers because he’s smart and knows the tendencies of opposing teams through his film work. He’s an excellent addition because he’s able to quarterback the defensive backfield and will make plays.

• Jeremy Shockey is questionable for this week.


• Dallas Clark is still listed as questionable, but he practiced on Wednesday and should play this week vs Jacksonville.


• Interesting move in Chicago, as Lovie Smith has named rookie Chris Harris a starter at free safety this week. Reportedly, Mike Green made a number of mistakes in the Bears’ loss to Washington. Smoth decided during this off-season to swap the position his two safeties, Green and Mike Brown. It appears that Green has been slow to adjust.


• Mike Anderson is questionable for this week. This status of this injury report probably has more importance than any other single report. Watch out for Ron Dayne here too. Mike Shannahan clearly doesn’t trust Tatum Bell yet.


• Steve McNair called Donovan McNabb with some advice on how to deal with a sternum injury.


• I forgot to hit on PFW’s Whispers earlier this week, but here’s some key points:

  Rookie speedster Troy Wil­liamson has big-play ability, but Vikings sources say the team believes that Koren Robinson can emerge as the No. 2 receiver opposite Nate Burleson.

  Our sources in Atlanta won’t be surprised to see rookie WR Roddy White, who missed most of training camp with an ankle injury, earn a starting spot with the Falcons soon.

  Cardinals head coach Dennis Green on rookie Adam Bergen, who is expected to be the team’s primary receiving threat at the TE position: “He has exceptional hands, and so he came in here and was everything we were hopeful that he would be. He also has very good poise. Nothing bothers him.”

  Although WR Jerry Porter made a few nice plays in the season opener, expect the Raiders to continue to pick and choose their spots with him until he shows he is completely healthy from the hamstring strain that kept him out of the entire preseason. The same goes for fellow WR Ronald Curry, who admitted last week he still isn’t 100 percent and suffers through bouts of soreness with his surgically repaired Achilles tendon.

• And from PFW’s ‘The Way We Hear It:’

  NE- DE Jarvis Green proved in the season-opening win over the Raiders what many observers have suspected regarding the Patriots — the strength of the defense has shifted from the LB corps to the defensive line. Once Green was inserted into the lineup at end, along with fellow DE Ty Warren and DTs Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork, the Patriots’ defense stiffened after a shaky first quarter and contained the Raiders’ explosive attack.”

  DEN- Head coach Mike Shanahan has labeled 2005 as the “true year to evaluate Jake Plummer.” After an offseason spent reinstalling the offense and its basic concepts with the team’s quarterbacks, Shanahan and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak are quite satisfied with Plummer’s grasp of the system entering his third year as a Bronco and have admitted that that they would be surprised if Plummer fails to put up big numbers this fall.

  CHI- Head coach Lovie Smith can draw from his experience with the 1999 Buccaneers as a model for this Bears team to copy. That Tampa Bay team won 11 regular-season games and finished as the NFC runner-up on the strength of its defense. Another similarity? The starting quarterback, for part of the season, was a rookie, second-round pick Shaun King. Smith is leaning on rookie fourth-round pick Kyle Orton as his starter in Chicago and expects first-round pick Cedric Benson to soon become a key cog for a run-first offense. Until that happens, the defense has center stage.

  DET- In February, [Lions’ OC Ted} Tollner reviewed film of the last eight games of the Lions’ 2004 season, when Jones ran for 906 yards and four touchdowns, and was awestruck. “He’s got a chance to be one of the premier backs in the league,” Tollner told PFW. “He showed that in the second half of the season. It’s that he’s playing with so much confidence and aggressiveness.”

  SF- Of all the numerous Niners defenders who have been asked to switch positions in the team’s new 3-4 scheme, we hear nobody has made a smoother adjustment than fourth-year pro Mike Rumph, who has switched from cornerback to free safety and is getting more comfortable in his new role by the day. “I’m loving it,” Rumph enthusiastically told PFW. “I think it was a great move.”

Wednesday Football

I absolutely love Directv’s new Sunday Ticket feature: Short Cuts. It was offered this week as a free preview, but as a result, I know that sometime this next weekend I’m going to be $99 dollars lighter. Being able to watch an entire game in less than a half hour… well by then I’ll have convinced myself it’s worth it.

Anyhow, here are some notes from two particular week one contests that I caught on Short Cuts:

Broncos at Dolphins

Denver blizted Gus Ferrotte an awful lot. And Gus looked rather poised in the face of it.

Ronnie Brown has the spin move of Warrick Dunn in a body closer to T.J. Duckett’s.

Denver should have been tied at half time. They went for it on fourth and goal inside the five and missed. Later, in the fourth quarter, the Dolphins almost held Denver out of the end zone again on four straight plays inside the five, but Broncos fullback Kyle Johnson scored on fourth down.

The reverse Chris Chambers took for 61 yards should have been a touchdown. He had plenty of blockers in front and did actually reach the end zone but it was rightly determined that he stepped out of bounds around the 18 yard line. Miami needs to show that play again soon.

Tatum Bell’s fumble was inexcusable. He’s not going to earn himself more playing time with moves like that. Still, he got a lot more playing time than most expected because of Mike Anderson’s injury.

Miami ran more four man defensive fronts than I expected.

Nearly every time Wes Welker touched the ball, on returns and on catches, he looked like he could score. Welker is a Texas Tech product, so he should know what he’s doing with the ball in open space. He did give up a key fumble early in the fourth quarter, but it wasn’t a careless one. Welker was hit from three directions and had the ball pop out from behind.

Both of Denver’s tight ends, Putzier and Alexander, struggled mightily.

As I mentioned in the Tuesday Targets, both of Ashley Lelie’s red zone targets were indeed jump ball fades in the end zone.

Also mentioned in the above link is that Chris Chambers was everywhere. He had 13 balls thrown to him but only made 5 catches. He also picked up an extra 28 yard pass interference penalty on Dominique Foxworth.

This game re-affirmed everything I wrote about Jake Plummer here. Of course, none of this is new. Still, both of his INTs on Sunday were essentially garbage time picks. He earned the first one, but certainly not the second.

Titans at Steelers

Tennessee drove 61 yards on 11 plays on their first drive of the game. They were up 7-0 to start.

Willie Parker’s speed has certainly been talked about over the past few days. But he also has shown good ability to break off or elude the first tackler behind the line of scrimmage. Since he only needs two steps to be at full speed, Parker running behind Kreider and this O line is a dangerous guy. The one thing I kept thinking he looked like was a pinball. He would bounce off of one guy, curl around another, and then plow right over a third all in the matter of two seconds. Keep in mind also that Parker did not touch the ball in the fourth quarter and he still had 209 yards from scrimmage. Also keep in mind that he shredded the Buffalo defense in week 17 last year when the Bills were playing for a playoff berth.

This game could have easily been 17-17 with five minutes left in the first half.

Travis Henry’s fumble wasn’t horrible. James Farrior stuck him right in the gut/football and the ball popped loose. The fumble wasn’t at all reminiscent of the fumble problems Henry had early in his career.

Steve McNair’s INT really wasn’t his fault either. It came out of the hands of Drew Bennett, who was going over the middle at the time and should have been securing the ball into his chest. The pass would have fallen incomplete had it been an out route instead of a slant. McNair’s other turnover, a lost fumble, wasn’t unforgiveable either. He had barely got back into his drop before Joey Porter came screaming around the edge and stripped the ball while McNair was loading up for a throw. This Titans’ offense really isn’t as bad as it may seem. They only had one unproductive drive all day.

The Titans secondary really is that bad.

Ben Burger was (again) very much a half field passer throughout this game. He still threw for 218 yards on just 9 completions. I mentioned on Tuesday that the Steelers probaby won’t do anything special this week againts Houston. So if you’re watching, count how many times Ben looks off his first receiver and still stays in the pocket. I’d be surprised if he did it once. Burger really takes himself out of plays sooner than he needs to and it’s hindering his development. He’s not a bad quarterback, not at all. And I only call him Ben Burger cause I have enough carpal tunnel problems thatI don’t need to be going through Rothifskfvnsl every time. Sorry. Pajamas.

Courtney Roby didn’t do much on Sunday. He returned a few kicks. I’m sticking by it though. This guy can really play. Just wait for it.

Tuesday Targets

Targets are probably my favorite football stat. Few numbers tell me more about what an offense is doing than a compilation of where the passes are going. Unfortunately, ‘targets’ is not an official stat and is therefore not tracked by regular media sources.

All praise to the guys at footballguys.com for being, yet again, the number one resource for target stats. Like last year, I plan to go over these numbers each week along with whatever relevant game notes.

ARZ- Larry Fitzgerald led all WRs in week one with 13 catches and 155 yards. He caught all but two of the 15 passes thrown to him. Also of note, TE Adam Bergen (an undrafted free agent I’ve liked since the combine) was thrown 4 of the 5 passes directed at Cardinals tight ends.

ATL- Alge Crumpler led the team (as usual) with 8 targets. Also of note is Michael Jenkins’ 3 catches on 4 targets. Anyone who has watched Jenkins play this preseason/season knows that Jenkins is a rising star.

BAL- Lots of passes were thrown in the Ravens loss to Indy. Derrick Mason picked up 12 targets and caught 8 passes. The tight ends were heavily featured as well, with Daniel Wilcox taking in 10 targets and Todd Heap 7. In total, 53 balls were thrown to nine different targets. Clarence Moore looked a little out of step, as he hauled in just two of the eight balls thrown to him.

BUF- On the contrary, the Bills threw only 26 passes on Sunday. Eric Moulds led the way with 7 and Lee Evans had 5- averaging 22.7 ypc and 13.6 yards per target.

CAR- Welcome back Steve Smith. You had nearly 41% of the team’s passes (13 of 32)thrown to you against the Saints. And considering that you were being covered by Mike McKenzie for most of the time, that shows that Jake Delhomme has a lot of confidence in you. You are about to continue on your path to become part of an elite group of wide receivers. When the Panthers aren’t running the ball inside the 20, they’re usually throwing to their TEs. Both Kris Mangum and Mike Seidman each received a RZ target.

CHI- Muhsin Muhammad is earning his money. While the Bears swapped Justin Gage, Mark Bradley, and Bernard Berrian in and out of the lineup (combining for 7 targets tota) Muhammad picked up 12 by himself. That’s good for 68% of Orton’s throws.

CIN- Tight ends got 1 throw all day from Carson Palmer. C.J. led the team with 10 and T.J. was behind him with 7. Also of note is the number of chances Chris Perry got (six).

CLE- I honestly don’t know who Frisman Jackson is. I didn’t watch much of the Browns in the preseason cause I didn’t think there would be a reason to. I saw Antonio Bryant make some plays, but I must have tuned out by the time Jackson was playing. He had 9 passes thrown his was on Sunday against the Bengals. I would attribute his 8 catches for 128 yards more to the lack of depth in the Bengals secondary than anything else. Bryant led the team with 10 targets and I still consider him the best long term WR option on this team.

DAL- Surprisingly, Jason Witten was only thrown 1 ball against the Chargers. Bledsoe only threw 24 passes all day, 6 went to Patrick Crayton, 6 to Keyshawn, 6 to Julius Jones, and 5 went to Terry Glenn. Good distribution there and it’s nice to see Jones getting some balls thrown to him.

DEN- As I expected, the Broncos use of Darius Watts was low. In fact, he didn’t get one pass his way. Charlie Adams, the guy who really beat Jerry Rice out of a job, picked up 3. TE Jeb Putzier tied for the team lead with 12 targets. Lelie also picked up 2 red zone targets, an indication that the Broncos may be more willing to use his height and leaping ability this season. Lelie only picked up 8 RZ targets all last year.

DET- Roy Williams only caught two passes, but he was still targeted with nine throws. Joey Harrington looked to both Williams receivers once in the red zone, and Marcus Pollard twice.

GB- Obviously, this team is without its top receiver now. Favre leaned heavily on his backs against Detroit, throwing 17 passes their way.

HOU- This offense has been awful through five games. Just awful. David Carr threw just 22 passes. And they were losing the entire time. How? At least Andre Johnson picked up 7 of those passes.

IND- Brandon Stokely had the highest % of catches to targets among the receivers. He pulled in 70% of the 10 passes thrown his way.

JAX- Before the season started, there were concerns about Jimmy Smith’s consistency after a few drops during the preseason. He caught 7 of 13 passes for 130 yards and 2 TDs. That’s 42% of Leftwich’s throws. Reggie Williams also looked sharp, bringing in 4 of 5. Matt Jones got 2 red zone looks.

KC- With an early lead, the Chiefs probably saved a lot of their offense for week two against Oakland. Priest Holmes got the ball 9 total times inside the twenty. Tony Gonzalez went just 4 for 7 and breakout TE candidate Kris Wilson did not see a ball go his way. Expect that to change this weekend.

MIA- Chris Chambers was all over the field against Denver. He ran the ball once for 61 yards, caught 5 of the 13 balls thrown to him, and was targeted twice inside the twenty. Overall, he was a very troublesome player for Denver’s banged up secondary to contend with. Keep an eye on Wes Walker too. He earned his way even or past David Boston on the depth chart with a strong preseason and Walker caught all four of the passes thrown to him.

MIN- Most fantasy leagues scored Daunte Culpepper’s week at or below zero points. Jermaine Wiggins led the team with 8 targets, not including a couple of touchdowns that were called back by penalty. Moe Williams got the only two red zone chances the Vikes gave to their running backs.

NE- Like Steve Smith, injury slowed Deion Branch’s ascension as a top 10 WR. Seven catches on 11 targets for 99 yards in week one. Ben Watson was targeted 5 times by Brady while Daniel Graham was left to pass block on many occasions. Watson is the Patriots’ TE you want on your fantasy team..

NO- Ernie Conwell was most of the Saints’ offense before he left with a concussion and jaw injury. He was 6 for 6 in targets to catches. Donte Stallworth was reliable, picking up 4 catches on 5 targets, but Joe Horn led the team with 8 targets. Deuce McAllister picked up 12 total chances inside the red zone, scoring 2 touchdowns.

NYG- Jeremy Shockey’s injury doesn’t look to be serious, but he did score on one of the two passes thrown to him. Plaxico Burress led all receivers with 11 targets (2 inside the twenty), almost half of Manning’s 23 passes.

NYJ- Another team that looked awful, it seems like the Jets are going to need a few weeks to work out the wrinkles. Still, they spread the ball around well. And TE Chris Baker, who beat out Doug Jolley for the starting spot, went 7 for 8 for 124 yards and a score. Justin McCareins was targeted 3 times inside the red zone.

OAK- Kerry Collins only completed 46.2% of his 39 passes against the Pats. But 15 balls went to Randy Moss. Courtney Anderson is the leader of the tight ends. He brought in 3 of 4 passes and scored twice.

PHI- Speaking of… TO was targeted 18 times by Donovan McNabb. Brian Westbrook had 11. That’s 29 of McNabb’s 45 passes. The Eagles are in trouble if that keeps up.

PIT- Ben Burger went 9 for 11, so there isn’t much here. The Steelers are at Houston this week, so don’t look for them to unveil anything new before their week three matchup against New England.

SD- Without Antonio Gates, Drew Brees went to his wide outs 80% of the time against Dallas. That number was closer to 50% last season. Keenan McCardell picked up 5 red zone targets. He caught 9 passes for 123 yards and 2 TDs. The Chargers travel to Denver this week.

SEA- Bobby Engram is still the most sure-handed of the Seahawks, going 8 for 9 against the Jags. Jerramy Stevens was highly featured, with 7 targets. Look for Joe Jurevicious to become more involved. He caught 3 of 4 is playing in a relatively familiar offense.

SF- The Niners got an early lead and managed to hang on to it against the Rams. They really shut things down after half time too. Arnaz Battle was thrown 6 passes, he threw 2 more himself, and he ran the ball once.

STL- After an off-season of talking about running more, Mike Martz had Marc Bulger throw 56 passes. His splits are yet up on NFL.com, but I’d love to see how many passes he threw after halftime. Isaac Bruce picked up only 6 targets, while Kevin Curtis (a top sleeper pick by many) got 14 and 3 inside the twenty. Shaun McDonald was active too, with 10 targets, but Torry Holt led the way with 16.

TB- Gruden spreads the ball around a lot, and now that Alex Smith has 2 TDs on the year, it’s likely that he’ll be used as a decoy over the next few weeks inside the red zone. Still, Smith is a good talent who should have a nice first half to the season. Joey Galloway, finally healthy, looked great against Minnesota. If Brian Griese had a little better arm strength, Galloway would have finished the game with 6 catches on 7 targets, 140 or so yards and a score.

TEN- The Titans had a number of chances to score, but three turnovers put a damper on that. Steve McNair threw just as many passes (13) to his TEs as he did to his WRs. That’s good news to Ben Troupe (5) owners.

WAS- Chris Cooley was highly featured with 6 targets, second behind Santana Moss’ 9. And in the red zone, both Cooley and fellow TE Robert Royal were the only receivers targeted against the Bears. The Skins are on the national stage on Monday night against Dallas.