2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Cincinnati Bengals

Whatever talent and optimism there is for the 2005 Bengals offense has to be tempered by the reality that they play in a division with the Steelers, the Ravens, and now Romeo Crennel. Nonetheless, Cincinnati’s Offensive Coordinator Bob Bratkowski has a proven history of working with productive offenses. He coached at University of Miami during their championships in 1989 and 1991, and more recently has worked as the Seahawks OC (1995-98) and the Steelers wide receivers coach (1999-200).

During Bratkowski’s first season with the Bengals in 2001, Cincinnati finished dead last out of 31 teams in totals points scored. They went 6-10 that year. Then, in 2002, the offense moved up to 28th overall in points, but the team finished 2-14 and Marvin Lewis was brought in as the team’s new head coach.

After Jon Kitna led the 2003 offense to a remarkably improved 13th best ranking in total points scored, the Bengals finished 8-8 for the first time since 1996. Then, last season, with Carson Palmer starting 13 games before injuring his knee against the Patriots, the Bengals’ offense finished the year ranked 10th in points scored.

While Bratkowski’s background of success has been in the passing game, the most consistent facet of his offense in Cincinnati has been at the running back position. Corey Dillon gained 1315 yards in 2001, and then 1311 in 2002. Rudi Johnson and Dillon split time in 2003, but their combined efforts were good for 1498 yards on 352 carries (which is just slightly over the average per season for a RB). Last year, with Johnson running behind an inconsistent offensive line, the former Auburn RB still gained 1454 on 361 carries. Rudi got a five-year deal during the off-season, so he’s no longer playing for a paycheck, but Johnson is a talented, tough runner who is built well for play in this division.

A lot of people still doubt Johnson’s ability, especially after a slow start to last season, but he was a top prospect at Auburn who just happened to come out of a draft class that included Deuce McAllister, LaDainian Tomlinson, Travis Henry, Michael Bennett, Anthony Thomas, Lamont Jordan, Kevan Barlow, Derrick Blaylock, and Correll Buckhalter.

Second year back Chris Perry figures to get some chances as the team’s third down back, but at the beginning of camp, he says he’s still just 70% while recovering from two sports hernia surgeries. If he can’t go, then Kenny Watson will. Either way, I doubt the Bengals give Rudi much more than 320 carries this season. But he should be good enough to gain close to 1300 yards and score 10 touchdowns.

For Carson Palmer, this is obviously going to be an important year in his progression. Palmer has fellow California native and a former assistant with the Greatest Show on Turf (St. Louis 2000-02), Ken Zampese, as the team’s quarterbacks coach. In addition to his work with the Rams, Zampese was one of the coaches responsible for guiding Jon Kitna on his way to his career season in 2003.

In Palmer’s last three games of the 2004 season, the Bengals put up 58 points at home against Cleveland, 27 in Baltimore, and 28 in New England. Palmer threw for 835 yards in those three games (278.3 avg) with 9 TDs and 5 INTs. I really like Palmer’s skill set and leadership qualities. He’s very agile, throws very well on the run, has reportedly lost 20 pounds this past season- focusing more on health than bulk. There isn’t much standing in the way of Palmer finishing 2005 with 3500+ yards and 25 TD. How well he’s able to limit turnovers, however, will determine if he’ll end up a top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

The Bengals offense, under Lewis and Bratkowski, was at its best last year when they were able to build early leads by vertically challenging the opposing team and then using the game-finishing strengths of Rudi Johnson to control the tempo in the second half. But their defense just wasn’t good enough last year to hold early leads and much of the team’s 2005 success again resides in their ability to hold opponents to under 24 points.

I would expect to see more shootouts again this season and if that’s is so, Cincinnati’s strength at wide receiver should give them an edge. The team will hope to welcome back slot receiver Peter Warrick to the lineup, in addition to All-Pro Chad Johnson and his former Oregon State teammate T.J. Houshmandzedah. Many people will wonder about Housh’s value this season after his breakout 2004. T.J. was awarded with a nice contract and with all of the other options at WR it’s hard not to think that his production will decline slightly. But don’t discount him altogether. Housh was among the league leader’s last season in reception percentage of total targets (i.e. how many balls he caught in relation to how many were thrown to him).

Aside from those three wideouts, Kelley Washington has talent and his entering his third pro season, but the guy to watch to be the team’s #3 guy is Chris Henry. As I outlined here and here, Henry’s combination of size, strength, and attitude has drawn comparisons to Jerry Porter.

It’s hard to tell how Bratkowski and Palmer will distribute the ball this season. In 2001, five different receivers had 20 or more catches. But that was probably due more to the fact that they had no one of any reliability yet. Johnson and Housh were just rookies that year. In 2002, the Bengals distributed their throws around to four different receivers, all of which had 40+ catches that year. But by 2003, as Johnson was establishing himself as one of the premiere pass catchers in today’s game, the team primarily used just CJ and Warrick as receivers since Housh was hurt for most of the year. That trend continued last season after Warrick was lost for the year. Cincinnati employed many two WR sets, and the majority of the passes went to CJ and TJ.

The team’s offensive line should return all five starters from last season, but keep an eye on the status of Willie Anderson. The big right tackle has been one of the most undervalued linemen in the league even though he played through a knee injury all last season. He finally had surgery on that knee and Anderson isn’t expected to start camp on time. His place in the lineup is as important as any on this offense.

If Anderson does make the opening day starting lineup, the 2005 Bengals have a chance to return all 11 starters from last season. And as the Colts have proven to many over the last few seasons, continuity, both on the field and in the coaching ranks, is a very important thing in this era’s NFL.