Archive for July, 2005

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Cincinnati Bengals

Whatever talent and optimism there is for the 2005 Bengals offense has to be tempered by the reality that they play in a division with the Steelers, the Ravens, and now Romeo Crennel. Nonetheless, Cincinnati’s Offensive Coordinator Bob Bratkowski has a proven history of working with productive offenses. He coached at University of Miami during their championships in 1989 and 1991, and more recently has worked as the Seahawks OC (1995-98) and the Steelers wide receivers coach (1999-200).

During Bratkowski’s first season with the Bengals in 2001, Cincinnati finished dead last out of 31 teams in totals points scored. They went 6-10 that year. Then, in 2002, the offense moved up to 28th overall in points, but the team finished 2-14 and Marvin Lewis was brought in as the team’s new head coach.

After Jon Kitna led the 2003 offense to a remarkably improved 13th best ranking in total points scored, the Bengals finished 8-8 for the first time since 1996. Then, last season, with Carson Palmer starting 13 games before injuring his knee against the Patriots, the Bengals’ offense finished the year ranked 10th in points scored.

While Bratkowski’s background of success has been in the passing game, the most consistent facet of his offense in Cincinnati has been at the running back position. Corey Dillon gained 1315 yards in 2001, and then 1311 in 2002. Rudi Johnson and Dillon split time in 2003, but their combined efforts were good for 1498 yards on 352 carries (which is just slightly over the average per season for a RB). Last year, with Johnson running behind an inconsistent offensive line, the former Auburn RB still gained 1454 on 361 carries. Rudi got a five-year deal during the off-season, so he’s no longer playing for a paycheck, but Johnson is a talented, tough runner who is built well for play in this division.

A lot of people still doubt Johnson’s ability, especially after a slow start to last season, but he was a top prospect at Auburn who just happened to come out of a draft class that included Deuce McAllister, LaDainian Tomlinson, Travis Henry, Michael Bennett, Anthony Thomas, Lamont Jordan, Kevan Barlow, Derrick Blaylock, and Correll Buckhalter.

Second year back Chris Perry figures to get some chances as the team’s third down back, but at the beginning of camp, he says he’s still just 70% while recovering from two sports hernia surgeries. If he can’t go, then Kenny Watson will. Either way, I doubt the Bengals give Rudi much more than 320 carries this season. But he should be good enough to gain close to 1300 yards and score 10 touchdowns.

For Carson Palmer, this is obviously going to be an important year in his progression. Palmer has fellow California native and a former assistant with the Greatest Show on Turf (St. Louis 2000-02), Ken Zampese, as the team’s quarterbacks coach. In addition to his work with the Rams, Zampese was one of the coaches responsible for guiding Jon Kitna on his way to his career season in 2003.

In Palmer’s last three games of the 2004 season, the Bengals put up 58 points at home against Cleveland, 27 in Baltimore, and 28 in New England. Palmer threw for 835 yards in those three games (278.3 avg) with 9 TDs and 5 INTs. I really like Palmer’s skill set and leadership qualities. He’s very agile, throws very well on the run, has reportedly lost 20 pounds this past season- focusing more on health than bulk. There isn’t much standing in the way of Palmer finishing 2005 with 3500+ yards and 25 TD. How well he’s able to limit turnovers, however, will determine if he’ll end up a top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

The Bengals offense, under Lewis and Bratkowski, was at its best last year when they were able to build early leads by vertically challenging the opposing team and then using the game-finishing strengths of Rudi Johnson to control the tempo in the second half. But their defense just wasn’t good enough last year to hold early leads and much of the team’s 2005 success again resides in their ability to hold opponents to under 24 points.

I would expect to see more shootouts again this season and if that’s is so, Cincinnati’s strength at wide receiver should give them an edge. The team will hope to welcome back slot receiver Peter Warrick to the lineup, in addition to All-Pro Chad Johnson and his former Oregon State teammate T.J. Houshmandzedah. Many people will wonder about Housh’s value this season after his breakout 2004. T.J. was awarded with a nice contract and with all of the other options at WR it’s hard not to think that his production will decline slightly. But don’t discount him altogether. Housh was among the league leader’s last season in reception percentage of total targets (i.e. how many balls he caught in relation to how many were thrown to him).

Aside from those three wideouts, Kelley Washington has talent and his entering his third pro season, but the guy to watch to be the team’s #3 guy is Chris Henry. As I outlined here and here, Henry’s combination of size, strength, and attitude has drawn comparisons to Jerry Porter.

It’s hard to tell how Bratkowski and Palmer will distribute the ball this season. In 2001, five different receivers had 20 or more catches. But that was probably due more to the fact that they had no one of any reliability yet. Johnson and Housh were just rookies that year. In 2002, the Bengals distributed their throws around to four different receivers, all of which had 40+ catches that year. But by 2003, as Johnson was establishing himself as one of the premiere pass catchers in today’s game, the team primarily used just CJ and Warrick as receivers since Housh was hurt for most of the year. That trend continued last season after Warrick was lost for the year. Cincinnati employed many two WR sets, and the majority of the passes went to CJ and TJ.

The team’s offensive line should return all five starters from last season, but keep an eye on the status of Willie Anderson. The big right tackle has been one of the most undervalued linemen in the league even though he played through a knee injury all last season. He finally had surgery on that knee and Anderson isn’t expected to start camp on time. His place in the lineup is as important as any on this offense.

If Anderson does make the opening day starting lineup, the 2005 Bengals have a chance to return all 11 starters from last season. And as the Colts have proven to many over the last few seasons, continuity, both on the field and in the coaching ranks, is a very important thing in this era’s NFL.

Baseball Daily

• The Angels are scratching Jarrod Washburn from his schedule Saturday start. Paul Byrd will be moved up on three days rest.


• I had much of last night’s 18 inning game on and even though Vlad Guerrero sat it out with a calf injury, Garrett Anderson might as well have sat too. He went 0 for 7 and left 4 very important runners on base. Mike Scioscia says that Anderson, who is hitting .247 in July, is “battling through a little tendinitis.”


• Roy Halladay will pitch a simulated game tomorrow, and could be back starting as early as Tuesday.


• Dontrelle Willis seems to have worked out his kinks:

  In the midst of his slump, Willis worked on his mechanics with pitching coach Mark Wiley, slowing down his pace between pitches. The lefty also collected some advice from a former teammate, closer Armando Benitez, who is on the disabled list with the Giants.
  
  After his loss in San Francisco last Friday, Benitez noted that Willis’ arm angle had dropped.

• Keep an eye on Rich Harden too. He reported ‘a little crankiness’ in his arm after Sunday’s game, but he has been cleared to start tonight.

DBacks at Cubs
• Javier Vazquez on the road this year:
  6-5, 77.2, 3.59, 1.11, .258
  Vazquez during the day, since 2003:
  11-6, 162.2, 3.38, 1.03
  BvsP:
  Burnitz- 13/42 (.310), 5HR
  Hairston- 4/9, HR
  Hollandsworth- 4/12
  Lee- 12/35 (.343), 2HR
  Ramirez- 3/15
  Walker- 4/11
• Mark Prior career at home:
  17-9, 280.2, 3.40, 1.15, .228
  Career at day:
  21-11, 329.0, 2.98, 1.13, .222
  Prior has never faced Arizona,
  But Shawn Green is 6/11 with a HR off Prior.
• The DBacks are 4-10 in game two’s after winning the opener.

Pirates at Braves
• Dave Williams this season on the road:
  5-2, 51.2, 2.61, 1.12, .200
  Williams hasn’t made a road start since June 29.
  The Pirates are 20-31 away from home this year, 6-3 when Williams starts.
  He’s never faced Atlanta.
• Horacio Ramirez career at Turner:
  10-3, 147.0, 3.37, 1.25, .230
  7 of his last 11 starts have been on the road.
  In those last four home starts:
  3-0, 27.0, 2.00, 0.89
  Ramirez’s career splits:
  DAY: 5-6, 80.0, 5.96, 1.51, .289
  NIGHT: 17-8, 286.2, 3.36, 1.34, .254

Giants at Brewers
• Doug Davis in his last six starts:
  0-1, 40.0, 3.15, 1.18
  At home this year:
  6-2, 67.0, 3.63, 1.25, .219
  Last year vs SF (home):
  0-1, 7.0, 4H, 3ER, 5BB, 3K
  
• The Giants are hitting .299 against LHP this year.
• Kirk Rueter since June 1:
  0-4, 43.1, 7.89, 2.01

UPDATE White Sox at Orioles
• Orlando Hernandez this season at home:
  3-2, 39.0, 5.77, 1.69, .318
  But the Sox are on the road tonight. So if you look at his two starts since coming off the DL, they were both at home. He gave up 10 hits in 12.2 innings in those two outings.
  Career at Camden Yards:
  4-1, 42.1, 3.40, 1.30, .255
  BvsP:
  Bigbie- 4/13 (.308)
  Gibbons- 2/8, 2HR
  Lopez- 3/13
  Mora- 4/18, HR
  Palmeiro- 11/37 (.297), 6HR
  Roberts- 3/6
  Surhoff- 9/22, HR
  Tejada- 6/26 (.231), 2HR
• Eric Bedard since coming off the DL, has faced TB and MIN.
  Jermaine Dye, who’s 6 for his last 15, is 2/5 with a HR off Bedard.
• The White Sox are batting .292 against LHP on the year, but are just .214 against them in their last 10.

Baseball Daily

• The DBacks have recalled top prospect Conoor Jackson to share time at first base with Chad Tracy. In turn, they’ve designated Jose Cruz, Jr. for assignment. Jackson “was batting .354 with 38 doubles, eight homers and 70 RBIs for Triple-A Tucson.”


• C.C. Sabathia suspects that he’s been tipping his pitches.

  If Sabathia can tell that he’s tipping pitches from watching video, chances are opposing batters can see it on the mound.
  
  “I would have to think so, the way I’ve been pitching the last two months,” he said. “That’s something I’ve been working on, and I’ll go out Saturday [against Seattle] and hope everything works.”

• Trot Nixon is on the DL for Boston, but they may have Gabe Kapler back by Saturday.

Pirates at Marlins
• Kip Wells career vs FLA:
  3-1, 33.0, 1.91, 1.09, .188
  On the road this year:
  2-7, 54.2, 6.91, 1.85, .302
  But he’s had to pitch in some pretty tough parks:
  Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Wrigley, Busch, Bank One, Minute Maid, Miller, and Great American.
  Career in Miami:
  2-1, 21.0, 2.14, 1.24, .208
• Dontrelle Willis lifetime ERA:
  Before All Star game: 2.84
  After All Star game: 4.84
  He’s 1-3 with a 9.41 ERA in 22.0 July innings this year.
• Juan Encarnacion is 8/17 with 3HR off Wells.

Indians at Mariners
• Cliff Lee career at SAFECO:
  3-0, 18.0, 3.50, 1.06, .197
  Career vs SEA:
  40-, 25.1, 3.55, 1.11, .226
  And on the road this year:
  7-3, 3.63, 1.27, .252
  Lee beat Meche and the Mariners 4-3 in his last start.
• The Mariners are hitting .308 against LHP in their last 10 games.
• Gil Meche this year vs CLE:
  0-2, 12.0, 5.25, 1.75, .320
  Career vs CLE:
  1-6, 42.0, 4.93, 1.50, .296
  Even though his splits are similar, Meche is 6-2 at home this year, and he’s won his last 6 home starts.
• Ron Belliard is 4/9 with 1HR off Meche.

Baseball Daily

• Phil Nevin returned to the catcher position last night. With Ramon Hernandez undergoing wrist surgery, the Padres suddenly need Nevin again. We’ll see if he plays well enough behind the plate, though.


• White Sox closer Dustin Hermanson is still struggling with a lower back problem. He’s pitched just twice in the last two weeks.


• Brandon Backe, who has pitched well through arm trouble this year, now faces the possibility of being scratched from his Thursday start due to a strained muscle in his left side.


• The Braves are losing Mike Hampton again. And there’s this on Larry:

  Chipper Jones understands that his left foot is going to bother him until he has it evaluated again in the offseason.
  
  “It’s not going to heal this season,” said Jones, who came off the disabled list on July 18.

• Lyle Overbay will be staying in Milwaukee.


• Troy Glaus, who’s missed the DBacks’ last two games, is still day to day.


• I noted last week that Dodger Stadium was giving up an unusually high number of homeruns this year. Jim Tracy has a take on why:

  “The ball travels pretty well here in the day time,” Tracy said. “They won’t travel quite as well in three or four weeks here. It’ll travel more like it does in the first five weeks or so of the season. The air gets heavier.”

• Even though he lost last night, Jon Lieber is back.


• Ted Lilly has some discomfort in his left arm, and he may miss his next start.


• Brandon Inge got some rest last night, due to his recent struggles. Inge is batting .191 over his last 110 at bats. Also, Placido Polanco is ready to return to the Tigers’ lineup.


• Baseball Musings has an interesting note about who fills out the lineup card for the Nationals.

Giants at Cubs
• Yesterday’s game between these two lasted 3 hours and 28 mintues, and it ended at 1:16am after a 2 hour, 43 minute rain delay. This afternoon, the Giants will be playing their third game of their current road trip. They have to be exhausted, and I suspect the change in time zone added on top of last night’s game is going to leave them sluggish today.
• Brett Tomko on the road this year:
  2-7, 67.1, 5.88, 1.51, .290
  Career vs CHC:
  2-4, 47.2, 5.29, .149, .304
• Carlos Zambrano at day this year:
  4-1, 62.0, 1.89, 1.08, .180
  At home this year:
  4-1, 63.0, 2.29, 1.03, .178
  And look at his career splits for day/night:
  DAY: 23-17, 368.0, 2.59, 1.25, .219
  NIGHT: 18-16, 303.1, 4.12, 1.34, .241
  A lot of that may have to do with his success at Wrigley, since the majority of his day games come from there.
  But his career home ERA is 3.11, so there’s clearly something to him pitching during the day and at home.

Nats at Braves
• Esteban Loaiza on the road this year:
  2-4, 58.1, 4.94, 1.56, .305
  Career at Turner:
  1-0, 21.2, 2.08, 1.06, .250
• Tim Hudson at home this season:
  4-1, 46.1, 2.91, 1.27, .250
• The Braves are 23-9 in game two’s this season, but just 9-6 when following a win.


• More night game stats possible later.

Baseball Daily

• First it was the Nationals and their low scoring offense that has caught up with them.
  Are the White Sox next?
  Via Baseball Musings:

  Tim Marchman in the New York Sun writes a great Sabermetric article arguing that the White Sox have the worst offense in the AL, and how unusual it is to have a team with such a poor offense do so well.

  A claim that the White Sox are a terrible offensive club should, rightly, be met with skepticism. The team is, after all, sixth in the league in runs scored, first in stolen bases, and on pace to win 107 games, this last number being the best evidence against the Sox being notably bad at the plate. There are a few mitigating factors, though. The most important among them is that they play in U.S. Cellular Field, which is one of the better hitter’s parks in baseball. The team’s last place ranking in runs scored on the road is more telling than that sixth-place ranking in total runs scored.

  And even if they do still win the division, this team is more in line for a Divisional Series blowout than any other this season.


• Nick Johnson is set to be activated today.


• As I expected last week, Travis Hafner will go on the DL and Jeff Liefer (remember him?) will be called up to take Hafner’s spot on the roster.


• Nomar starts his rehab tonight.


• Brandon Webb, who was scratched before last night’s game because of a viral illness, is scheduled to start tonight for the DBacks in Milwaukee.


• Jon Lieber, who pitches tonight in Houston against Roy Oswalt, has settled down a bit since his rough May and June. Lieber has given up just 2 HR in his last 25 innings (20 of which came at home).

Pirates at Marlins
• Josh Fogg on the road this year:
  3-3, 58.1, 5.25, 1.11, .239
  Career vs FLA:
  3-2, 35.0, 2.83, 1.26, .273
  But in three starts in Florida:
  0-2, 15.1, 5.87, 1.76, .349
• Brian Moehler this year at home:
  1-4, 58.1, 2.78, 1.18, .247
• The Pirates have won eight out of their last 10 against the Marlins.

Nats at Braves
• Livan Hernandez career vs ATL:
  2-13, 114.0, 5.45, 1.53, .279
  And at Turner Field:
  0-7, 48.1, 6.52, 1.70, .307
  BvsP:
  Estrada- 7/20
  Furcal- 13/40, 4HR
  Giles- 7/17, HR
  A Jones- 12/40, HR
  C Jones- 16/44, HR
• John Smoltz is 2-0 since the break with a 1.20 ERA.
  The Braves have won eight straight games when Smoltz has started, and 9 of 10 since June 1.

Rockies at Mets
• Kaz Ishii career at Coors:
  1-2, 22.0, 6HR, 9.41, 2.41, .389
  On the road this season:
  2-5, 45.2, 5.91, 1.51, .263
  And at night this year:
  1-7, 55.2, 5.82, 1.53, .267
• Jeff Francis is struggling.
  In his last four starts:
  1-2, 21.1, 8.02, 1.97, .362
  He’s back at home, after two consecutive road starts,
  Career at Coors:
  8-2, 66.0, 3.82, 1.45, .287

Angels at Jays
• Paul Byrd since May 1:
  8-3, 96.1, 3.18, 0.99
  He hasn’t faced TOR since 2002, so the career numbers are too meaningful.
  Bryd is 24-17 lifetime on Turf, with an OppBA of .243.
  In one career game at Skydome:
  0-1, 8.0, 4H 2R, 1ER, 1HR, 0BB, 4K
• Gustavo Chacin has never faced the Angels.
  Lifetime at home, opponents are hitting .302 against him.
  Anaheim is hitting .260 against lefties on the year.
  Chacin has won his last three home starts.
• The Angels are 12-1 in series openers this season when coming off a loss. 23-9 overall in openers.

Baseball Daily

• The Brewers will play 38 of their last 63 games this season at home.
  Included in there are ‘25 of 34 from Aug. 21 to Sept. 29.’


• Johnny Podres, who helped turn Curt Schilling’s career around, has been asked to work with Phillies prospect, Gavin Floyd.


• Javy Lopez should give a much needed boost to the Orioles, as he is schedule to rejoin Baltimore’s lineup tonight.


• The Devil Rays are playing like a completely different team than what we saw before the All-Star Break. Not only are they 7-3 since the break (all vs the AL East too), but they’ve posted two straight wins on Sunday. TB has been one of the worst teams playing during the day this year, and were 1-13 on Sunday’s prior to their recent run.

Phillies at Astros
• Corey Lidle on the road this year:
  5-3, 68.2, 2.75, 1.05, .228
  Career at Minute Maid (all last year):
  0-1, 13.0, 4.85, 1.23, .255
• Andy Pettitte at home this year:
  4-3, 59.2, 2.72, 0.97, .221
  He’s 4-0 in his last six starts (48.2 innings) with a 0.88 ERA over that stretch.
  He has, however, given up just as many unearned runs (4) in those six starts, as he has earned runs.
• David Bell, an almost legendary LHP killer (.414 AVG this season) is just 2/22 lifetime off Pettitte.

Mets at Rockies
• Tom Glavine career at Coors:
  3-1, 67.1, 3.34, 1.50, .305
  But he hasn’t pitched in Denver since 2003.
  Glavine did throw a 1 hit shutout last season vs COL at Shea.
  
• The Rockies area starting Jose Acevedo, who hasn’t thrown more than two innings in any appearance this year. Colorado’s bullpen ERA this year is 5.47. But their starters are averaging 5.29, so there’s really not much difference there.

Reds at Dodgers
• Aaron Harang on the road this year:
  2-4, 54.1, 5.13, 1.47, .287
• Derek Lowe at home this year:
  5-5, 63.0, 4.71, 1.33, .297
  He did throw well in his last start.
  That is attributed to this:

  While watching video of his previous starts with Dodgers pitching coach Jim Colborn, Lowe detected a mechanical flaw and made the proper adjustments that worked against the Phillies.

BoSox at DRays
• David Wells career vs TB:
  10-1, 96.1, 2.52, 1.03, .242
  And this year against them:
  2-0, 14.0, 1.29, 0.93, .235
• The Rays are hitting .302 against LHP at home, and .313 against them in their last 10 games.
• Doug Waechter is starting off the DL.
  He’s struggled at the Trop over his career:
  6-9, 109.1, 5.93, 1.44, .280

ChiSox at Royals
• Freddy Garcia on the road this year:
  7-1, 73.1, 2.33, 0.93, .208
  But career at Kaufman:
  3-3, 40.0, 6.08, 1.53, .325
  This year vs KC:
  2-0, 13.1, 2.70, 1.05, .240
• Zach Greinke is 2-0 since the break, with a 1.46 ERA in 12.1 innings.
  Career against CWS:
  1-4, 37.1, 4.58, 1.10, .241
• The Royals have lost their last 10 meetings with Chicago.

Indians at A’s
• C.C. Sabathia on the road this year:
  5-2, 53.2, 3.35, 1.23, .246
  A native of nearby Vallejo, CA, Sabathia career in OAK:
  1-0, 23.1, 4.63, 1.59, .284
• Barry Zito at home this year:
  5-3, 62.2, 3.02, 0.97, 1.96
  Career against CLE:
  3-2, 43.2, 1.03, 1.08, 1.64
  And since 2004 against CLE:
  1-2, 28.0, 0.96, 1.07.
  He’s just 1-2 in those four starts against them since 2004, giving up a totale of 3 runs.

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Buffalo Bills

How quickly J.P. Losman goes from being a talented prospect to a legitimate NFL quarterback now lies directly in the hands of Bills G.M. Tom Donahoe (responsible for putting an inexperienced signal caller at the reigns of an otherwise playoff-caliber team), Head Coach Mike Mularkey, Offensive Coordinator Tom Clements, and Quarterbacks Coach Sam Wyche.

Probably the most recognizable name in that list is Wyche’s- a former NFL head coach who went 84-107 over ten years of service with the Bengals and the Bucs. Wyche worked with both Losman and Drew Bledsoe last season, so there should at least be in place an established, working relationship between the protege and mentor. Having spent his early NFL years with Bill Walsh and the 49ers (1979-82), Wyche has recently survived a serious heart disease, cardiomyopathy, and a lacerated vocal cord nerve that forced him to retire as a broadcaster in 2000. Before joining the Bills prior to the 2004 season, Wyche worked as a high school coach for two years in South Carolina.

Clements came with Mularkey to the Bills from Pittsburgh prior to the 2004 season. From 2001 to 2003 with the Steelers, Clements served as the quarterbacks coach during Kordell Stewart’s Pro Bowl season in ‘01 and he also helped resurrected the career of Tommy Maddux in ‘02. Prior to that, Clements was the QB coach in KC when Elvis Grbac made the Pro Bowl in 2000. He’s also worked under Lou Holtz at Notre Dame (1992-95) coaching the Irish’s quarterbacks. Clements is himself a former quarterback who started three seasons at Notre Dame (1972-74), going 29-5 there. He played in the CFL and also holds a law degree (magna cum laude fron ND).

With Wyche and Clements, it’s hard to think that the Bills could have any two better coaches working with the gifted and brash former Tulane Green Wave QB. Last year, the Bills ranked 27th overall in completions, attempts, and total passing yards. But at this point in each of their careers, the differences between Bledsoe and Losman are as great as the risk the Bills are taking in turning over the starting QB job to someone who has thrown just 5 regular season passes in the NFL.

Losman will at least have a strong supporting cast of playmakers. Eric Moulds will be entering his 10th NFL season, and is still a smart route runner with dependable hands. At the age of 32, however, I wonder how many 1000 yard seasons he has left in him. Moulds is 6′2, 210 pounds, and he’ll at least be able to rely on his overpowering strength over the final years of his career.

The emerging star of the Bills’ receivers is undoubtedly Lee Evans. The former Badgers All-American came to the NFL with questions about the health of his knee but last year’s 843 yard, 9 touchdown rookie season showed everyone that he is just as fast as he was in Wisconsin before the injury. There should be concern in thinking that Evans will turn into a top fantasy WR this year, since he’s now a sophomore with a rookie QB, but anyone in a keeper league should take notice on Evans. He already is one of the premiere deep threats in the league. Evans has the character, the speed, and the ball skills to become a top 10 WR in the NFL.

At running back, I’ve seen a few places list Willis McGahee as a top 10 fantasy pick for this season. That is not at all a bad projection for the former Hurricane. With 1128 yards and 13 TDs last year, McGahee is set up for a nice sophomore season. But, as everyone knows, this is officially McGahee’s third year in the NFL. What everyone should also know is that 1058 of those 1128 yards last year came in the Bills’ last 12 games. If you pro-rate those numbers (88.16 YPG) out over the course of a full season, McGahee was on pace to finsh 2004 nearly 75 yards ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson with a total of 1411 yards. Add in the 17 touchdowns he would have been on pace to score, and you’ve got a top 10 fantasy running back. Actually, you have a top 5 fantasy running back.

With Losman taking snaps and with Mularkey’s emphasis on power running and defense, McGahee will be leaned on heavily. And while he looked tentative at times last season after taking hits to his surgically repaired knee, the more it held up over the season, the more confident and punishing he ran. It’s still yet to be determined if he’ll ever posses the same breakaway speed he had in Miami (e.g. the post-ACL Edgerrin James era), but McGahee is still fast enough to break long runs in the NFL. There will be great concern, however, if McGahee were to get hurt, as the Bills have no proven backup at this point.

One final note the the Bills’ running back: McGahee is not as talented a pass catcher as Travis Henry, but he still hauled in 22 passes for 169 yards last year (paced for 207) and with a young quarterback, it’s a safe assumption that McGahee will be targeted as a safety receiver at least that many times this year. Assuming he plays in 15 or 16 games, I suspect MsGahee ends the 2005 season with around 1600 yards from scrimmage and at least 12 touchdowns.

Baseball Daily

• I’m really going to get into the NFL stuff, but with the roll I’ve been on since the all-star break, my focus is still on baseball.

All stats today:

Astros at Nats
• Roger Clemens on the road this year:
  3-1, 53.0, 0.34, 0.87, .159
  In April and May, the Astros lost all but three of Clemens’ 11 starts. Since June 1, Houston has won six of Clemens’ eight starts, with both losses coming on the road.
• Jose Guillen is expected to miss tonight’s game.
  But he’s only hitting .263 with just 1 HR at home.
• Ryan Drese has still only made that one start in his new home, RFK.
  Last year vs HOU:
  0-1, 15.0, 3.60, 1.13, .241

Rockies at Pirates
• Jamey Wright on the road this year:
  2-5, 54.1, 4.14, 1.44, .250
  Career at PNC:
  1-5, 44.2, 4.03, 1.48, .252
• Kip Wells at home this year:
  4-3, 61.0, 2.95, 1.28, .234
  The Pirates have lost 6 of the last 7 of Wells’ starts.

Dodgers at Mets
• Jeff Weaver since June 1:
  2-4, 60.1, 2.69, 0.96

Mariners at Indians
• Jamie Moyer on the road this year:
  3-3, 45.2, 7.09, 1.82, .335
  Career at Jacobs:
  4-2, 62.1, 3.50, 1.18, .239
  The Indians are hitting just .241 against LHP.
• Scott Elarton at home this year:
  4-1, 56.0, 3.86, 1.32, .277
  Since June 1:
  4-2, 54.0, 3.83, 1.04
  Adrian Beltre is 7/19 with 2HR off Elarton.

Twins at Tigers
• Joe Mays career vs DET:
  10-4, 116.0, 2.64, 1.05, .216
  But this year:
  0-1, 9.0, 8.00, 2.11, .343
• Mike Maroth at home this year:
  2-7, 67.0, 5.51, 1.51, .311
  But last year:
  6-3, 97.1, 3.14, 1.24, .262
  Career vs MIN:
  2-7, 82.1, 4.37, 1.34, .289
  The Tigers are 12-5 in game two’s when following a loss.
  The Twins are 10-5 in game two’s when following a win.

Orioles at Rays
• Bruce Chen on the road this year:
  2-4, 54.2, 5.27, 1.48, .303
  Lefties are hitting .388 of him.
  Career indoors:
  6-3, 88.2, 3.45, 1.14, .226
• Seth McClung in his last four starts:
  0-3, 26.0, 4.15, 1.23

Red Sox at White Sox
• CWS vs Wakefield:
  Crede- 2/8
  Dye- 6/34, HR
  Everett- 6/10
  Konerko- 2/14
  Pierzynski- 4/14
  Rowand- 6/8, 2HR
• Jon Garland at home this year:
  7-2, 64.1, 2.94, 0.98, .216

Baseball Daily

• Tons of press still floating around Zach Duke.

  “He’s off to a wonderful start, and I’ve said time and time again I think he’s going to be a wonderful pitcher for a long time,” manager Lloyd McClendon said Wednesday. “But he will have times when he struggles and he has to keep an even keel.”
  
  So far, that seems to be the 22-year-old Duke’s best quality: The poise and uncommon polish he possesses for a pitcher with only 79 games of pro experience, just 25 above Class A. That’s what Maddux saw as Duke repeatedly worked out of trouble Saturday, getting the Cubs to hit into four double-play grounders.

• Any time the DRays face a lefty starter, pick up Jonny Gomes and get him in your lineup. After three more hits yesterday, Gomes is now batting 18/45 (.400) of LHP.


• Josh Beckett will start on Saturday.


• Ned Yost has said that he’ll be starting Lyle Overbay more against LHP down the stretch.

Twins at Tigers
• Johan Santana career at Comerica:
  Career vs DET:
  5-1, 59.0, 2.44, 1.02, .182
  But some of the more recent Tigers have had success against him:
  Inge- 4/12 HR
  Ordonez- 7/16 2HR
  Rodriguez- 3/8 HR
  Last year, Santana against DET:
  1-1, 19.0, 3.79, 1.05, .206
  And on the road this season:
  6-2, 61.1, 3.82, 1.08, .230
  Detroit is hitting .298 on they year against LHP. .384 in their last 10.
• Jason Johnson at home this year:
  4-1, 69.1, 1.95, 1.13, .233
  But in three starts vs MIN this season:
  0-2, 12.2, 9.24, 2.21, .362
  Two of those starts were on the road.

Yanks at Angels
• Randy Johnson on the road this year:
  3-4, 52.0, 5.19, 1.38, .296
  Guerrero, Anderson, Finley, and Erstad are a combined 13 for 63 (.206) off Johnson. Career at Angel/Edison:
  6-2, 78.0, 3.35, 1.26, .242
• Bartolo Colon career vs NYY:
  3-4, 58.2, 4.30, 1.38, .235
  ARod is 17/40 with 6HR off Colon.
  And Sheffield is 6/14.
  The Angels are 11-1 in series openers when coming off a loss.
  New York is 12-3 in series openers when coming off a win.
  Since coming off the break, this is the Angels BA/OPS:
  .226/.552
  .129/.367
  .267/.603
  .156/.479
  .200/.457
  .161/.382
  .265/.728

Baseball Daily

• Here’s a quick chart of each team’s production this season when playing in the sunshine of the afternoon:
  

  TEAM	GAMES	RUNS	OPS	ERA	Diff	W-L
  TEX	29	6.83	.881	4.86	1.97	18-11
  CWS	33	4.61	.737	3.23	1.38	22-11
  PHI	35	5.06	.788	3.76	1.30	20-15
  FLA	26	4.96	.717	3.73	1.23	14-12
  MIL	36	5.31	.812	4.15	1.16	19-17
  OAK	30	5.27	.783	4.11	1.16	18-12
  MIN	27	4.30	.682	3.16	1.14	16-11
  SEA	30	5.03	.744	4.08	0.95	15-15
  BAL	30	5.23	.818	4.33	0.90	17-13
  BOS	29	6.00	.844	5.14	0.86	17-12
  NYM	31	5.03	.773	4.20	0.83	16-15
  STL	34	4.88	.753	4.23	0.65	18-16
  NYY	31	5.42	.796	4.81	0.61	17-14
  CHC	49	4.57	.775	4.01	0.56	25-24
  CIN	29	5.66	.825	5.11	0.55	15-14
  DET	33	4.39	.724	4.02	0.37	15-18
  WAS	34	4.29	.698	4.07	0.22	18-16
  ARZ	23	4.91	.793	5.07	-0.16	14-9
  LA	25	4.44	.749	4.64	-0.20	12-13
  TOR	32	4.81	.753	5.03	-0.22	12-20
  ATL	27	4.44	.727	4.66	-0.22	12-15
  SD	31	4.71	.751	5.08	-0.37	15-16
  SF	28	5.07	.767	5.52	-0.45	11-17
  CLE	34	3.79	.687	4.24	-0.45	13-21
  KC	33	4.88	.758	5.35	-0.47	13-20
  HOU	28	3.71	.687	4.35	-0.64	13-15
  ANA	27	4.19	.707	4.88	-0.69	14-13
  COL	32	4.75	.779	5.63	-0.88	13-19
  PIT	31	3.62	.682	5.12	-1.5	12-19
  TB	25	4.12	.698	5.65	-1.53	7-18

• Troy Percival is done for the year.


• And so is Erubiel Durazo.


• Armando Benitez is looking at September 1 for his return.


• Geoff Jenkins is 20 for 49 (.408) so far in July.


• Lance Berkman is 24 for 61 (.393) so far in July.


• Jim Thome took swings off a tee and could begin a rehab assignment this weekend.


• Baseball Musings has a write up on the Phillies concern about the way their new ballpark is playing:

  The worry is that teams in high run ballparks don’t win. So the Phillies may remove seats and lose revenue to make the outfield fences deeper. Of course, that may lead to a Coors problem, where balls start dropping in front of the outfielders.

• Ryan Freel Should be back by this weekend.

Astros at Pirates
• Andy Pettitte in two starts at PNC:
  1-1, 12.0, 1.50, 1.00, .227
  During the day this year:
  1-2, 39.1, 2.29, 1.19, .263
  And since June 1: 3-2, 54.2, 2.14, 1.02
• Josh Fogg career vs HOU:
  3-5, 67.0, 5.91, 1.43, .264
  At day: 13-15, 208.1, 5.27, 1.50, .293 And at home this year:
  1-2, 48.1, 3.91, 1.57, .301

O’s at Twins
• Rodrigo Lopez Career indoors:
  3-3, 37.0, 5.84, 1.65, .289
  Career at day: 15-18, 246.2, 5.22, 1.42, .289
  On the road this year:
  5-3, 60.0, 6.45, 1.57, .296
• Brad Radke at home this year:
  5-5, 69.2, 2.97, 0.99, .241

Tigers at White Sox
• Nate Robertson has a 2.50 ERA at home and 4.20 ERA on the road this year.
  Career at day:
  4-10, 99.2, 6.14, 1.63, .293
• Freddy Garcia at home this year:
  2-2, 58.2, 4.76, 1.50, .279
  But during the day:
  4-1, 63.0, 2.71, 1.11, .230
  Last two seasons vs Det:
  5-1, 50.0, 2.88, 1.14


• Night game stats later.
UPDATE:

Rockies at Nats
• Homeruns don’t seem to be Jason Jennings’, problem, but hits do.
  Last year he gave up 16 HR at Coors, 11 on the road.
  This year, those numbers are similar; 5 home, 6 away.
  But in 61.0 home innings this year, he’s given up 76 hits.
  In 56.2 road innings this year, he’s given up 49 hits.
  So obviously, it’s the cavernous outfield at Coors that Jennings struggles with.
  On the road this year:
  2-5, 56.0, 4.98, 1.43, .231
• The Nats are clearly sliding, and tonight’s game is one they would have won easily a month ago. But I’m not so sure about them tonight.
  Todd Helton is 21 for 42 lifetime off Liven Hernandez.

Dodgers at Phils
• Derek Lowe has given up 11 HR at home, vs just 6 on the road.
  Strange that Dodger Stadium ranks 6th lowest in average runs scored but is 16th in average HR per game.
  Lowe is 0-5 on the road this year, but his ERA (3.82) there is lower by almost a full run than it is at home (4.71).
  Also, Lowe has lost his last five decisions.
• Corey Lidle at home this year:
  3-4, 50.2, 5.86, 1.58, .327

Cubs at Reds
• Kerry Wood career vs CIN:
  12-3, 127.1, 2.97, 1.12, .194
  At Great American:
  4-0, 41.0, 3.95, 1.05, .195
• Aaron Harang at home this year:
  3-4, 62.0, 2.90, 0.97, 1.96
  Derrek Lee is 6/11 with 1 HR off Harang.

Baseball Daily

• Mike Hargrove on Willie Bloomquist, the impressive young Mariner sparkplug:

  “It takes about two weeks to get a label and about five years to get rid of it,” Hargrove said. “He needs to continue what he’s doing to convince people that he’s an everyday player.
  
  “Has he done that yet? No. But he’s certainly opened some eyes.”

• Scott Rolen has shoulder tendonitis and he will be ‘limited’ for the next three to six weeks.


• A.J. Burnett, who’s scheduled to pitch tonight against the DBacks, obviously has other things on his mind:

  Burnett shook his head in the negative when asked if he thought he would still be with the Marlins tonight, when he is scheduled to face the Diamondbacks.
  
  “But I’ll be ready if I am,” Burnett said.

• The Yankees are in first.


• Hard throwing Detroit prospect Justin Verlander will make his second career start on Saturday.


• Proof that paying low on proven veterans pays off:

  Since reaching his low point of .220 on May 22, [Jason] Kendall, a three-time National League All-Star during nine seasons with Pittsburgh, was batting .343 over his past 44 games to lift his overall average to .287 through Sunday.

  The Beach was on him on 05.27.05 when he was hitting .242.


• The DBacks are rumored to be interested in Shingo Takatsu.

Rockies at Nats
• Shawn Chacon has given up 6 homeruns in 38.0 innings at Coors this year. On the road, he’s yet to surrender a HR in 20.2 innings.
• John Patterson at home this season:
  10 starts, 3-0, 61.1, 2.20, 1.14, .207

Braves at Giants
• Horacio Ramirez is rolling.
  Since 06.01.05:
  5-1, 3.68, 1.21
• Jason Schmidt last season vs ATL:
  1-1, 8.2, 8.31, 2.54, .390
  Marcus Giles was 5/6 off Schmidt last year.

Rays at Sox
• Tampa Bay has now won 4 out of 5 since the break, all on the road.
  They are playing excellent baseball right now and even Lou is fired up.
  Casey Fossum on the road this year:
  2-3, 48.1, 3.72, 1.24, .218
  The former Red Sox has pitched 41 games at Fenway, 19 as a starter:
  7-6, 135.1, 4.46, 1.32, .257
  He’s thrown six scoreless innings against Boston this year.
• Bronson Arroyo at home this year:
  1-3, 56.2, 4.61, 1.48, .287

Mariners at Jays
• Aaron Sele on the road this year:
  4-4, 42.2, 5.48, 1.52, .318
  Career at Toronto:
  4-1, 46.1, 5.24, 1.71, .305
• Ted Lilly at home this year:
  6-3, 56.2, 3.81, 1.24, .247
  And since 06.01.05:
  4-4, 50.0, 3.06, 1.18
  Lilly (7-9) has figured in all but two decisions of his 18 starts this season.

Baseball Daily

• Beanings like the one Travis Hafner received usually linger in the mind long after the short-term, physical ailments heal. Just ask some other lefties like Justin Morneau, Matt Lawton, or Craig Counsel.


• JC Bradbury of the The HardBall Times has the midseason PrOPS All-Star Team out. PrOPS stands for Predicted OPs, and it really doesn’t have a ton of statistical value to me. But a look at this year’s bottom-25 list shows a high number of talented but young hitters like Jeremy Reed, Mark Teahan, Aliexis Rios, and J.J. hardy.


• Marlins’ LHP Jason Vargas will make his first career MLB start tonight in Arizona.

Astros at Pirates
• Brandon Backe on the road this year:
  2-5, 56.0, 6.43, 1.73, .302
• Dave Williams at home this year:
  2-4, 36.2, 6.87, 1.66, .323

Rockies at Nats
• B.H. Kim on the road this season:
  0-3, 20.2, 9.15, 2.13, .326
  Two of those games were starts:
  at Camden: 0-1, 3.1, 9H, 6ER, 2HR, 1BB, 1K
  at Wrigley: 0-1, 5.0, 8H, 5ER, 3HR, 0BB, 2K<
• Tony Armas at home this year:
  3-0, 35.2, 2.78, 1.21, .205
  The Rockies were just swept by the Reds in Cincinnati, falling to 7-36 on the road this year.
  Also, they have lost 12 road series and split two others.

Orioles at Twins
• Erik Bedard will come off the DL and start for Baltimore.
  The lefty has a strange career line against MIN:
  2starts, 0-1, 9.0, 9H, 10R, 2ER, 1HR, 3BB, 7K
  Career indoors, Bedard’s ERA is just 2.20 and he’s 2-1.
  But he’s given up 35 hits in 28.2 indoor innings.
• Carlos Silva at home this season:
  4-2, 66.1, 4.21, 1.31, .316

2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - New England Patriots

Listed above is the entire offensive staff for the 2005 Patriots. This Patriots’ Weekly mailbag indicates that either McDaniels (QB coach) or DaBoll (WR coach) are being groomed for the position of offensive coordinator.

Regardless of who ends up with the job, the loss of Charlie Weis is not going to send this offense into a tailspin. The Patriots are way too talented to think one man- even Tom Brady- holds the fate of their offense in his balance. Bill Belichick will begin the season as New England’s playcaller and if there is to be one area of the Patriots’ offense that with suffer without Weis, I think it will lie with New England’s ability to adjust to their opponents’ defensive gameplan during the second half of games.

How many times over the last four years did we watch the Patriots put the hammer on their opponents after half time? This Boston Globe piece from late last season has a few quotes that indicate Weis’ ability to progress:

Weis’s innovative schemes have provided fans with plays that have been entertaining, risky, (mostly) successful, and occasionally head-scratching. One thing you can count on when you go against a Weis offense: Expect the unexpected.

“I’ve heard [Miami linebacker] Zach Thomas say that numerous times,” said New England linebacker Mike Vrabel. “Zach watches a lot of film. He’s one of those guys who is at it until 9 o’clock every night, hoping to get an edge.

“He’s told me countless times he can’t do that with a Charlie Weis offense. He knows whatever he’s watching is something he won’t see again.”

This team could go 10-6 with a monkey calling plays Tecmo Bowl style. I anticipate we’ll see plenty of two TE looks, since New England now has Ben Watson, Daniel Graham, Christian Fauria, and Jed Weaver to chose from. I also think Corey Dillon will be leaned on even more, as things are not likely to go as well as they have during their back to back 14-2 seasons.

Weis was New England’s O.C. for all five of the seasons that Belichick has been the Patriots’ head coach. Prior to joining New England, Belichick was in charge of the Cleveland Browns from 1991-1995. He went 36-44 with the Browns, and 1-1 in the 1994 playoffs. Belichick’s offenses with Cleveland ranked 19th, 22nd, 18th, 20th, and 22nd in the NFL during those five seasons. He’s obviously playing with a different set of toys in New England, but still there is merit for some doubt in Belichick calling plays. Wait, did I really just write that? Doomed.

Besides Dillon producing a majority of the big plays, I’ve loved Deion Branch since he was with Louisville and I think he’s got the skill to put up 1200 yards and 6 touchdowns. But Branch plays within such a large cast of receivers, it may be hard for him to get that many looks.

There is one thing about the Patriots receivers that is clear: they all have a purpose on this team and they all do at least one thing very, very well. And they all will be coached to take advantage of what it is they do; whether it be the straight ahead speed of Bethel Johnson or Tim Dwight, the precision of David Givens, or the quickness of Branch and David Patten. The Patriots can line up tight, with three tightends, or spread out five receivers wide. There is no defense in the NFL that can matchup with all of these weapons and that is why the 2005 New England Patriots will be okay without Charlie Weis.

One final note, David Terrell’s signing with New England is a reuniting of the former first round WR with his college quarterback. These 1999 stats from the UM Football team show that Brady hooked up with Terrell for 61 receptions, 4 touchdowns, and 888 yards that season.

Baseball Daily

• Jason Giambi has probably gotten advice, both friendly and not, from just about everyone over the past year and a half. But when Mark McGwire speaks to him, it matters:

  “He told me to move a little closer to the plate and said I was getting too closed with my front foot, since I usually set up a little open,” Giambi said. “It’s just little stuff that he notices because he’s seen my swing since I was basically a kid.”
  
  …But McGwire will TiVo Yankee games and then refer to them when he chats with Giambi, who with last night’s blast now has six homers in his last seven games.
  
  “He’d be an unbelievable hitting coach,” Giambi said. “He really is good at that kind of stuff.”

• It was a little bit of a surprise to me that Troy Percival ended up back on the DL with the same arm trouble that put him out earlier this year. But there it is. The Tigers new closer, Kyle Farnsworth, has matured a lot since his days in Chicago. But, on a couple of occasions this year, I’ve seen him look brilliant for the first two batters of an inning, and then lose his focus when trying to get that third out.


• The Brewers aren’t forgeting their 22-53 second half record from last season.

  Yost met for several hours on Tuesday with Brewers general manager Doug Melvin, assistant GM Gord Ash and owner Mark Attanasio and discussed ways to get better. Yost said he could use more depth in the bullpen and more speed off the bench, and with Melvin on a tour of Minor League affiliates this week, the team could be exploring possible promotions from within.

• Milton Bradley has had five straight days off swinging without a ’setback.’ He could begin a rehab assignment early next week.


• The Marlins designated Al Leiter in part because they have high hopes for LHP Jason Vargas.


• Apparently, Jay Payton is representing himself better than his agent is:

  According to Payton, who was stuck behind Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon and Trot Nixon in the Red Sox outfield, he’d requested a trade two months before the run-in with Francona. Nothing seemed imminent, though, so when Francona made a move that Payton felt would cost him an at-bat during a game in Texas last Wednesday, he seized the moment.
  
  In other words, the argument with Francona was nothing more than calculated strategy on his part.
  
  “I saw a window to accelerate the process [of being traded], and I took it,” Payton said. “It really wasn’t that big of a big deal. It lasted about five seconds.”

  Nice.


• This Padres - DBacks series in San Diego is about to get nasty.

Marlins at Phils
• Brian Moehler this season on the road:
  3-2, 40.2, 3.98, 1.55, .321
• Cory Lidle this season at home:
  3-3, 47.1, 4.94, 1.46, .299
  There are a few Marlins who have a decent history against Lidle, but Jeff Conine owns him:
  17/30, 3HR

White Sox at Indians
• Freddy Garcia on the road this year:
  6-1, 66.1, 2.44, 0.89, .204
  In two starts against CLE this season:
  1-0, 14.0, 1.93, 1.00, .180
  He needs to stay clear of Travis Hafner, though.
  He’s 8/17 off Garcia with 2HR.
• C.C. Sabathia is struggling a bit at home this year:
  1-3, 46.1, 5.83, 1.45, .282
  And in four home starts since June 1:
  0-2, 17.1, 10.90, 2.08


• Finally, I’ll be watching tonight to see if the Blue Jays keep the roof open for Hideo Nomo. I’m sure they will, and this should be an interesting start for Nomo to see how he pitches in an almost dome environment.

The Deal with the NHL

In one of the more predictable ends to a lockout in history, the NHL and the NHLPA worked for 10 straight days and for nearly 24 straight hours in their final moments in order to announce ‘a deal in principle’ on one of the slowest sports news days in the entire calendar year.

Congrats folks, you managed to accomplish via this self-serving deadline what you were unable to do by working primarily for the good of the game, the good of the fans.

I’ll be back when the NHL returns this fall, as will many others, but the League and its Players have taught the world over the last 13 months a lesson we won’t forget:

Greed invades even into our sanctuaries.