Archive for January, 2005

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Monday Football

Monday, January 31st, 2005

Super Bowl Notes, Part IV.
PART I - PART II - PART III

• Great story from Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post about the one week versus two week Super Bowl debate:

  Of the seven Super Bowls played under the one-week format, the average margin of victory is 11.6 points. The average victory margin in the 31 two-week Super Bowls is 16.8 points. Of the seven one-week Super Bowls, four (57 percent) were decided by 10 points or fewer and three (43 percent) were decided by seven points or fewer. The 27-point Tampa Bay rout of Oakland (48-21) two years ago was the largest margin in a one-week Super Bowl.

  Saunders also talked with a member of the 1985 New England team that rode a wild-card birth all the way to the big game, but had to wait the extra week:

  …by the time the Patriots took the field to play the Super Bowl Shuffling Chicago Bears at the Superdome, the Patriots had little left to give. ‘Da Bears, 15-1 during the regular season, blew away the Pats, 46-10.
  
  In the opinion of former Patriots fullback Craig James, the two-week gap between the Patriots’ impressive 31-14 victory at Miami in the AFC title game and Super Bowl XX destroyed any chance the Patriots had of upsetting the mighty Bears.
  
  “Our momentum changed,” James said last week. “Both teams were equal coming out of the conference championship games - in terms of momentum. But that two-week gap seemed like an eternity.”

  This ‘85 Pats story reminds me of last year’s Super Bowl, when the Panthers gave New England all they could handle. After looking at the history of the one week versus two week debate, it’s not too hard to come to the assumption that had the Pats had an extra week to, 1) prepare and, 2) slow Carolina’s momentum, the outcome of the game would not have been as close as it was.
  
  Read the whole thing.


• From the Philly notebook:

  Two of the big statistics you will hear ad nauseam over the next week are Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s 8-0 postseason record and Belichick’s 9-1 mark in the playoffs, matching the postseason record of legendary Packers coach Vince Lombardi.
  
  A number in the Eagles’ favor: Coach Andy Reid is 10-0 whenever he has had an extra week to prepare his team. The Eagles are 7-0 in the regular season after an off week and 3-0 after a bye week in the postseason.
  
  Belichick is 9-7 after a week off, which includes a 4-0 record in the playoffs.

• Bill Belichick took over the Patriots prior to the 2000 season. New England began that year by losing their first four games and they ended up with a 5-11 record. The following season, the Pats won the Super Bowl. In five full (regular and playoff) seasons with New England, Belichick’s record is 61-27. Against NFC teams in those 5 years, Belichick is 15-7 but if you take out the Pats’ 0-4 record versus the NFC in their 2000 season, he’s 15-3 with NE against the National Football Conference.
  
  I keep trying to find historical reasons to support the Eagles this weekend, but so far I’m not doing very well. Still, it may not be a bad idea to parlay Philly to win with the under because I think if the Eagles are going to have a chance, they’ve got to hold New England to under 18 points. The oddsmakers are really undervaluing the Eagles with that high money line because even though most of the historical stats point to a New England victory, Philadelphia has enough talent in their secondary and on special teams to give the Patriots a tough game.


• There are four teams in the AFC East Division: New England, New Jersey, Buffalo, and Miami. Before the NFL’s 2002 realignment, the Colts were in that division too and considering how many times the Pats have faced Indianapolis lately, I’m going to consider them still part of the AFC East for the next few moments.
  
  As mentioned above, Belichick’s 61-27 record (69%) since 2000 breaks down to 15-7 (68%) against NFC teams. If you take out their divisional games (including Indy), New England since 2000 has gone 35-15 (70%). That number, minus the 15-7 records against NFC teams equals a 20-8 (71%) record against non-division AFC foes. So guess what their record is against division opponents? Yep, 26-12 (68%). Translation, Belichick’s Patriots will win 7 out of 10 games against anyone, with a slight edge to NE when they play teams less frequently.

Saturday Juice

Saturday, January 29th, 2005

Look around for whomever is offering a line on Saturday’s 4:00pm Senior Bowl. The South are favored by 1.5 to 2 points and by everything I’ve seen this week, they should roll right over the North. Not everyone is offering this game and I think I know why. I would probably take the South even if they were giving eight or nine points. The game is being played in Alabama and the South’s roster features former Auburn stars Jason Campbell, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Carlos Rogers (if he’s able to play after tweaking his hamstring earlier this week). And just by watching the South practice on ESPN Thursday, they hold a huge skill advantage over the North. Check out the rosters for each team here.
South -2
(The Coin likes the South too)

UPDATE: I guess I’m going to count this loss as part of the CFC.

Hockey News

Friday, January 28th, 2005

BACKTRACK WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY

Finally, more than just rumors. Bob McKenzie reports:

…now that the NHLPA is in the process of updating its membership on the status of negotiations, there are details filtering out as to specifically what the players don’t like about what the NHL proposed on Thursday.

Technically, the NHL did not provide a formal written proposal at the meeting. But it did propose concepts to the NHLPA, concepts that appear not to have been well received.

Read the whole thing. At least it seems as though this will all be over, either way, by Monday.

Also, James Mirtle has a beat on things:

Bob McKenzie is saying the NHLPA membership should have a vote, but I’m not so sure that’s going to happen. The only way that would be possible would be through the PA’s secure website, which at this point is anything but secure. There are more than 700 players with access to the site; it doesn’t take much for a reporter to endear himself to one of those fellows to see what is being said.

UPDATE: My source is out of town for the weekend and he wouldn’t let me read his email while he’s away. So I’m relying on Hockey Rumors and James Mirtlefor the rest of the inside story.

Hockey News

Thursday, January 27th, 2005

Track the story from yesterday.

It sounds like the NHL will be submitting a proposal to the NHLPA as early as tonight. The players know what that proposal will detail and they will agree to it over the weekend or on Monday.

I’m officially looking at my bank account to see how many home games I can afford.

UPDATE: I was never near a computer on Thursday night, but I read this from my phone.

“We continue to have significant philosophical differences,” NHLPA senior director Ted Saskin said Thursday night. “No meetings are scheduled and we will not make further comment at this time.”

I no longer understand how these sources can be saying one thing, and the press something completely different. (UPDATE NOTE: Hockey Rumors has a theory).

Despite what the two sides are saying, I still hear that they will meet again on Friday. I also heard that the NHL proposal was salary tax based- and not salary cap based. I find it hard to believe that as well. We’re officially back to speculation.

Thursday Football

Thursday, January 27th, 2005

2004-2002 New England Patriots versus ‘mobile quarterbacks’:

2004 - Conference Playoff - 41-27 at Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger 14/24 226 2-3, sacked 1 time. 5 rushes for 45 yards.

2004 - Week 12 - 20-3 vs Baltimore

Kyle Boller 15/35 93 0-1, sacked 4 times. 2 rushes for 10 yards.

2004 - Week 8 - 20-34 at Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger 18/24 196 2-0, sacked 0 times. 5 rushes for 3 yards.

2004 - Week 5 - 24-10 vs Miami

Jay Fiedler 20/41 251 1-1, sacked 3 times. 3 rushes for 6 yards.

2004 - Week 2 - 23-12 at Arizona

Josh McCown 13/29 160 0-2, sacked 5 times. 3 rushes for 19 yards.

2003 - Super Bowl - 32-29 vs Carolina

Jake Delhomme 16/33 323 3-0, sacked 4 times. No rushes.

2003 - Divisional Playoff - 17-14 vs Tennessee

Steve McNair 18/26 210 1-1, sacked 3 times. 2 rushes for 11 yards.

2003 - Week 14 - 12-0 vs Miami

Jay Fiedler 13/31 111 0-2, sacked 5 times. No rushes.

2003 - Week 11 - 12-0 vs Dallas

Quincy Carter 20/36 210 0-3, sacked 1 time. 6 rushes for 33 yards.

2003 - Week 7 - 19-13 at Miami

Jay Fiedler 20/35 230 1-2, sacked 1 time. 1 rush for 5 yards.

2003 - Week 5 - 38-30 vs Tennessee

Steve McNair 23/45 391 0-1, sacked 2 times. 6 rushes for 18 yards, 2 TDs.

2003 - Week 2 - 31-10 at Philadelphia

Donovan McNabb 18/46 186 0-2, sacked 7 times. 6 rushes for 53 yards.

2002 - Week 17 - 27-24 vs Miami

Jay Fiedler 11/25 110 1-0, sacked 2 times. 2 rushes for 9 yards.

2002 - Week 15 - 7-24 at Tennessee

Steve McNair 11/24 136 0-1, sacked 0 times. 6 rushes for 49 yards, 2 TDs.

2002 - Week 12 - 24-17 vs Minnesota

Daunte Culpepper 24/49 272 2-0, sacked 3 times. 5 rushes for 59 yards.

2002 - Week 11 - 20-27 at Oakland

Rich Gannon 26/38 297 0-1, sacked 1 time. 5 rushes for 15 yards, 1 TD.

2002 - Week 6 - 10-28 vs Green Bay

Brett Favre 17/27 147 3-0, sacked 1 time. 1 rush for 5 yards.

2002 - Week 5 - 13-26 at Miami

Jay Fiedler 17/27 190 2-0, sacked 1 time. 3 rushes for 18 yards, 1 TD.

So, just like from Tuesday’s analysis, assuming I compiled these stats correctly, there are some things to be learned from this.

First, I define a ‘mobile quarterback’ as someone who can escape pressure and still be a threat to throw on the run. Or, in other words, someone the Patriots can’t predict where he’ll end up at the end of each pass play.

2004 record: 5-0, average points against: 17.2
2003 record: 7-0, average points against: 13.7
2002 record: 2-4, average points against: 24.3
Three year total: 14-4, average points against: 18.2

It’s too bad the 2002 Patriots were just an average team, because during that season they faced Culpepper, Gannon, McNair, and Favre. New England’s 2003 and 2004 schedule is filled with too many McCown’s and Carter’s and Boller’s. There is one quarterback who the Patriots have faced 3 times in the last 3 years that draws my interest: Steve McNair.

In those three games, McNair’s combined numbers are: 52/95 737 1-3, 5 sacks, 14-71, 3 TDs rushing.
Averaged out, his per game performance across those three is: 17.3/31.6 245.6, 1.6 sacks, 4.6-23.6 1 TD rushing.
McNair doesn’t have the speed that McNabb does, but Donovan is at a similar point in his career as Steve was when he faced the Patriots in 2003.

Another interesting comparison is to look at Rich Gannon’s numbers against the Pats. The Raiders were successful in that 2002 Week 11 game in Oakland and also should have beaten New England in the 2001 Divisional Playoff Game; also known as the ‘tuck rule’ game. That Oakland team ran a very similar offense to the one the Patriots will see in Jacksonville next Sunday.

UPDATE: I forgot to post this information:

2004-2002 ‘Mobile QB’ per game average versus Patriots:

17.4/33 completions/attempts
207.7 passing yards
1 - 1.1 TD-INT ratio
2.4 times sacked
3.3 rushes for 19.8 yards and .3 TDs

UPDATE UPDATE: Since I have neither the intention nor the time to go through the 36 or so other box scores from this era to gather the stats for ‘non-mobile quarterbacks,’ I’m just going to reference the overall QB statistics versus New England.

2004-2004 Regular Season QB per game passing averages versus Patriots:

19.9/35.1 completions/attempts
204.4 passing yards
1.1 - 1.4 TD-INT ratio
2.5 times sacked

Note of variance: This average is from the ‘02-’04 regular season totals, including those games included in the ‘mobile QB’ average. Also, the ‘mobile QB’ average is from both regular and post season games.

Hockey News

Wednesday, January 26th, 2005

From a reliable source who has reliable sources in the NHL world:

Bob Goodenow may be on his way out as the players’ representative.

Trevor Linden and Ted Saskin are not only working with Bill Daly from the NHL, but Gary Bettman has been brought directly into the discussion as well and they are collectively working on a new agreement that begins with an immediate salary rollback (as previously offered at 24%) and would grandfather a cap system into the NHL over the next few (4?) years.

Nothing on the major news sources yet, but he’s a couple of links to keep checking.
Sportsnet.ca
TSN

UPDATE: Hockey Rumors has some stuff on it too.

Read the comments, one reader said that Fan590 in Toronto has the 24% rollback, a 50$ million cap, and a salary tax on payrolls over 40$, but under 50$.

UPDATE UPDATE: I got confirmation from my side on that last news from Toronto, but it’s probably just two different people hearing the same original source. Almost 6:00pm EST now, looking to see if anything hits the major sports news shows.

UPDATE: From the HockeyRumors sponsored chat:

*A deal in principle may be announced soon with details worked out later.

*NBC has been very involved

*Lemieux has also been influential as well

FINAL UPDATE TODAY: So it sounds as though we won’t hear anything today. ESPN and TSN are reporting that the two sides will meet again either on Thursday or Friday of this week. While I am still skeptical, Hockey Rumors and my source are reporting such similar things that there may just be some truth to it. Hopefully, we’ll find out tomorrow. I hate wait.

Also, from Sportsnet:

Sources tell Sportsnet it is expected the NHL and NHLPA will meet again Thursday, with potentially a change of city. Speculation suggests the two sides will meet in New York, however a source inside the discussion says the league has some work to do “internally” before committing to the next meeting.

That last line says to me they need to have the night to sleep on it. And the importance of the possibility of them meeting in New York should not be overlooked either.

THURSDAY UPDATE:

EJ Hradek, who has had a skeptical outlook on this whole situation for quite some time, was on Cold Pizza Thursday morning. He had two quotes that I specifically noted:

“Something happened in that meeting that changed the course”

“I have a feeling we may just get a deal here”

MORE FROM THURSDAY:

Hockey Rumors has this from his source:

“This will absolutely be over by Saturday. Posturing is over. These talks are the final talks. We will know where we are in the next few days. I am convinced this new proposal is a result of what both sides have been working on. There is immense pressure coming from the big teams. The players are going to have a hard time turning down this offer. Word is they already know what it basically is and are holding a vote on their website as we speak. I would be stunned if the season was cancelled. It won’t go past the week-end. Not a chance”

Tuesday Football

Tuesday, January 25th, 2005

• This confirms what I’ve suspected the Eagles will do with Owens. Assuming he makes it through the next two weeks without a re-injury:

  The highly placed source said he expected Owens would be the team’s No. 3 wide receiver on the natural grass surface of AllTel Stadium and play between 30 and 40 plays in the game.

  Ever since the injury happened, I’ve heard it compared to the one that Steve Smith suffered at the beginning of the season. And while I don’t think there is a more hard-working, determined, or better conditioned athlete in all of professional sports, I don’t see any way that TO will be much more than a 10-15 yard target. But that’s not saying that he won’t have an impact on the Super Bowl. In fact, now that the Eagles are without Chad Lewis, Owens’ size and reputation could give Philly some help on third downs. But there’s just no way I see TO beating anyone deep. Not even Earthwind Moreland.

UPDATE: Sal Paolantonio reported tonight that TO may be allowed to run as early as Wednesday as long as he keeps up his current rehab schedule. The fears of re-injury are that he may break the screw that is holding his ankle in place or that he may widen the joint by applying too much pressure. Ouch.

• Don’t underestimate the importance of this story:

  The end of an era will draw to a close on Feb. 6, when the Patriots take on the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX in Jacksonville, Fla. Bill Belichick’s all-star coaching staff is about to be broken up, and on Feb. 7, win or lose, Belichick will have to replace at least one, and probably two, of his closest friends.
  
  It’s hard to overstate how well Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel have stood up to the mental strain of their unique situations. Weis has been locked and loaded for Notre Dame since December. Crennel has been the leading candidate for the Cleveland Browns head coach job since early January. Both have plates so full that the food is falling off the table.
  
  But no matter how difficult the workload has been, it obviously hasn’t affected the Patriots on the field. Crennel’s defense shut down the Indianapolis Colts in historic fashion two weeks ago, and Weis’ aggressive play-calling produced 34 points against the Steelers’ No. 1-ranked defense in the Pats’ 41-27 romp Sunday.

• Eagles since 2002 versus 3-4 defenses:

  11.07.04 - Week 9, 2004 - 3-27 at Pittsburgh
  10.31.04 - Week 8, 2004 - 15-10 vs Baltimore
  11.02.04 - Week 9, 2003 - 23-16 at Atlanta
  09.14.04 - Week 2, 2003 - 10-31 vs New England
  11.11.03 - Divisional Playoffs, 2002 - 20-6 vs Atlanta
  09.29.02 - Week 4, 2002 - 35-17 vs Houston
  

  I’m only guessing that the Houston team they faced in 2002 employed a 3-4 defense. They’ve kind of gone back and forth with the 3-4 and the 4-3 and I can’t remember.
  
  So, assuming I’ve compiled an accurate list here, the Eagles are 4-2 in these games but averaged only 17.7 points for. When you take the Houston game out of the equation, that average points for number falls to 14.2.


• Patriots since 2002 versus West Coast offenses:

  12.26.04 - Week 16, 2004 - 23-7 at NJ Jets
  10.24.04 - Week 7, 2004 - 13-7 vs NJ Jets
  10.17.04 - Week 6, 2004 - 30-20 vs Seattle
  12.20.03 - Week 16, 2003 - 21-16 at NJ Jets
  11.02.03 - Week 9, 2003 - 30-26 at Denver
  09.21.03 - Week 3, 2003 - 23-16 vs NJ Jets
  09.14.04 - Week 2, 2003 - 31-10 at Philadelphia
  12.21.02 - Week 16, 2002 - 17-30 vs NJ Jets
  11.28.02 - Week 13, 2002 - 20-12 at Detroit
  11.17.02 - Week 11, 2002 - 20-27 at Oakland
  10.22.02 - Week 8, 2002 - 16-24 vs Denver
  10.13.02 - Week 6, 2002 - 10-28 vs Green Bay
  09.10.02 - Week 2, 2002 - 44-7 vs NJ Jets
  

  The first thing I should note is that the 2002 Patriots team finished 9-7 and failed to make the playoffs. That was the season that has people still doubting that this Patriots team is a dynasty. Make no mistake about it, they are. I also looked at the 2001 NE schedule to see how they did against West Coast offenses, but it was just so long ago, I can’t remember who was running what.
  
  The 2002 Pats went 2-4 against west coast teams, including the AFC Champion Oakland Raiders. I plan on looking at that game closely.
  The 2003 Super Bowl Champion Patriots went 3-1 against WCO’s and the 2004 AFC Champs finished the year 3-0. Some things to look at over the next few days…

Monday Football

Monday, January 24th, 2005

Some notes on yesterday:

• First, a welcome back to NFL Pick of the Week. I’m glad that the Divisional Playoffs didn’t carry you away to a dark, far off place. I feared otherwise. There doesn’t seem to be too many bloggers who are willing to make consistent, smart, detailed picks and also not take themselves too seriously (ie, those who make you pay for their so-called expertise). Nice to see you in action again.


• From the Boston Herald:

  PITTSBURGH - Several Patriots players credited an emotional pregame speech from coach Bill Belichick for putting them in the right state of mind prior to last night’s 41-27 AFC championship win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
  
  Belichick made the remarks at the team’s hotel following their morning meeting. It was apparently nothing fancy, but from the heart. The theme: Belichick had confidence in his players to do the job because they had always done it before.
  
  “I felt it came down to a point where he let his emotion out,” linebacker Roman Phifer said.
  
  Added Ted Johnson: “He said he had a lot of confidence in this team. It’s a simple thing, but that’s not always his style. I appreciated that. It was awesome. For us to hear those words meant a lot. He just said it with such assurance and confidence.”

• NY Times (subsc) on Belichick, and a look into his own story. :

  He admits mistakes when his peers make excuses. And this is his greatest strength: self-evaluation. Bill Parcells can recite the “Man in the Mirror,” but Belichick lives by the importance of self-reflection.
  
  Once again, he slipped on his decoder ring last night to make sure that, in his second lap with the Steelers this season, he would not end up twice fooled.
  
  Where did the Patriots go wrong on Halloween? What did Pittsburgh do so right in that game? By simply dissecting that question, the brainiac applied a chaos theory that put the Patriots in the Super Bowl after a 41-27 victory in the American Football Conference championship game.
  
  It may sound contradictory, but this genius redux happens all the time. He is 14-0 as Patriots coach when facing a quarterback for the second time in a season, a sign that he is able to confound and confuse the senses of an opposing team, its star and its coach.

• I hope no one slams Ben Burger for playing ‘like a rookie.’ Yes, he is a rookie, and that’s not his fault. It’s simply a fact. Also, he didn’t so much ‘play like a rookie’ yesterday than did he just play like every other quarterback who has faced the Patriots over the last two years.


• The Falcons, down 0-7, had a first a goal at the 2 yard line when Gregg Knapp called one run and two pass plays. They settled for a field goal. I don’t think Knapp called the best game possible, but I can understand the difficulties in trying to beat that Eagles defense yesterday. In hindsight, the best thing Atlanta could have done differently would be spreading the field a couple of times with 4 and 5 WRs. Philly’s linebackers were too keyed in on what was happening in the Falcons’ backfield and Atlanta didn’t do anything down the field to change that. The Falcons had some depth at the receiver position and with Dez White, Brian Finneran, Michael Jenkins, Pearless Price, and Alge Crumpler on the field, I think the Falcons could have softened the Eagles up a bit.


• The #1 reason the Eagles and the Patriots won their Conference Championship Games is because each of their offenses are versatile enough to go after their opponents’ weakness. People talked so much about the ‘physical’ play of the Steelers and the Falcons and while that is true, it obviously takes more than brawn to win big games. The Colts thought they could beat the Pats by just doing their own thing. Pittsburgh and Atlanta also tried to win by doing what got them there. But for New England and Philadelphia, what got them there is doing what you do best to make your opponent do what they do worst.


• This is what I’ll be looking at this week in anticiaption of the Super Bowl Media Week. I don’t like the extra week. I don’t know many who do, except maybe for Patriots fans who are loving the fact that Belichick will have an extra week to devise an evil plan. But, if I remember correctly, Andy Reid has a pretty nice record off of bye weeks too and he will probably have something ready for the Pats in Jacksonville. With the early lines that have been posted (7, 48), my early thought is to take the Pats -1, over 42 in a 6 point tease. But I’m hoping that TO doesn’t play only because I think the money line on the Eagles when they are +10 or so is a good opportunity.

  NE’s defense in big games versus teams they play for the first time (Carolina from last year, Pitt from this year)
  NE’s defense versus mobile QBs
  NE’s defense versus 1 dimensial teams
  
  Philly versus 3-4 defenses
  West Coast offenses versus NE
  NE’s offense against top defensive secondaries

UPDATE: I love this post from The Corner and even though it’s an obvious thought, it’s nicely captured here (after you get past the whole Jets crap).

RE: MORE SUPER BOWL [Andy McCarthy]
Rich, as a hardcore football fan who also has trouble remembering from year to year who won the last one, I have two observations — one personal, one general.

I am a Jet fan (had season tix back in the good old Shea days), so it may be that if your team hasn’t won (or even been in the game) since 1969, it’s a little hard to keep track of the 36 or so years in between.

But overall, I think it’s harder to remember now because it’s become — since the late 80s or so — less of a game and more of a pageant or a national entertainment. Over the nearly 40 years, the games as a rule have not been that good, so they are not that memorable as games. In the last five or so years, there have been some terrific games (e.g., Rams-Titans, Rams-Patriots, and last year’s Patriots-Panthers), but most of the hullabalo people remember turns out to be over Janet Jackson, or Bono, or the Bob Dole commercial, or the 6-hour pregame shows — and the game just gets lost. And the networks are now going more and more the route that is killing baseball: every year the game starts a little later and with all the commercials takes longer and longer to play. Less kids can hang in there and watch it. I’m a big fan and I have trouble watching it as it drags on for 4+ hours with tons of downtime. It becomes less a father-and-son sports event (which by and large is what served to sear sports events into the national memory). It ends up being like every other over-hyped celebrity drama in America. Who won the last academy award? The last grammy, or emmy? Who knows, and who cares. It’s too bad, though — it used to be a great sports event; like the world series was when they played it in the daytime.

I was thinking about this last night as I putting the Eagles against the Patriots together in my head. There are just so many long breaks in the action that it has to have some affect on the teams at play. I wonder how one could judge the loss in momentum that is experienced during a game like this that features longer, more frequent commercial breaks. It’s seems as though the NFL may soon be willing to go to commercial in between incomplete passes.

Friday Juice

Friday, January 21st, 2005

I’ve got Vick’s face on the front because I think this is going to be the last weekend we will get to see him this season. He’ll be only 25 years old by the time the Falcons kick off summer camp later this year. 25….

• Falcons -5 at Eagles - I published notes on this game Thursday, but I’d also like to add something from Bill Simmons that I usually do in my head before I make a pick:

  Here’s a good rule of thumb for Championship Sunday: Pretend you wagered on each team, then pick the worst-case scenario for each side. For instance, a worst-case scenario for that Rams-Falcons game last week would have been Vick scrambling around early, followed by Dunn breaking a long run, then the Falcons making their obligatory special teams play, then Bulger getting hurt, then Mike Martz staring out onto the field like an American tourist trying to read a train station schedule in Chinese. And that’s pretty much what happened.
  
  For the Falcons this Sunday, here’s the worst-case scenario: The Eagles shut down their running game, forcing Vick to throw the ball. When none of his receivers can get open (and isn’t that the biggest mismatch in this game — that motley crew of Atlanta receivers against Philly’s superb secondary?), he’ll try to create something with his scrambling … only the Eagles have the horses up front to chase him down, much like the way Tampa Bay’s D always handles Vick (as Collinsworth pointed out this week on HBO). And the Falcons offense will keep sputtering, and the Eagles will grind out a few drives, and that will be that.
  
  Here’s the worst-case scenario for the Eagles: Even though they’re controlling the game, for whatever reason, the Falcons keep hanging around … and hanging around … and suddenly it’s early in the fourth quarter, and the score is tied … and that’s when the fans start to get nervous (the baggage thing) … and then Vick breaks a big play to take the lead … and everyone in Philly is thinking, “Oh my God, please tell me it’s not happening again” … and then McNabb plays the rest of the game with both hands wrapped around his neck. See you next year.
  

  Consider all the crap he’s put out this past week, I’m glad to see that something useful has fallen out of his Shark Jumping word processor. I never thought the Eagles would suffer too much from the loss of TO until the Super Bowl. The Falcons are by far their toughest test in over two months (loss to Pitt on 11/7) but I think the Eagles match up well enough against them to win. The Falcons can be run on and their defense is based around their pass rush. Philly should be able to neutralize that and take advantages down the field. Philadelphia -5


• Patriots -3 at Steelers - What Coach Belichek meant earlier this week when he said that his team would get killed if his defense plays against the Steelers like they did against the Colts, was how the Pats were just daring the Colts to run up the middle of the field and then take some chances deep. Since Indy didn’t do either of those two things, they are home this week and next week and so on. This Sunday, the Pats will try to take away the Pittsburgh run and force Ben Burger to beat them. QBs who can move around the pocket do better against NE, but this one rookie won’t be able to do enough to win. One can’t stress enough that Corey Dillon did not play when these teams met earlier this season. The Patriots offense is much more versitile than Pittsburgh’s. And NE’s defense is just as good as the Steelers. Matchup that in the snow of western Pennsylvania, and I’m taking New England -3.

Current 2005 Beach NFL Playoff Record ATS: 7-4. 2004 NFL Regular Season Record ATS: 44-37.
Divisional Weekend Picks - Wildcard Weekend Picks
ODDS- YAHOO

Hockey News

Thursday, January 20th, 2005

Reason for living, afterall?

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/article.jsp?content=20050120_130833_3916

Sources tell Sportsnet the Phoenix Coyotes coaching staff has informed its players they need to be on standby, prepared to practice within the next seven days.

UPDATE: Rumors, rumors.

“There’s no substance to that whatsoever,” said Ducks head coach Mike Babcock. “That’s not true at all.”

Phoenix GM Mike Barnett also denied his players were told to be on alert.

“That’s completely erroneous,” he said. “I have not spoken to any members of our roster in two months. I don’t even know where one-third of our roster is. Some of them are spread all over the globe. No one in our management group has contacted our players since November.”

Thursday Football

Thursday, January 20th, 2005

I looked at the Early Super Bowl line this morning and I was shocked to see it was +6 NFC. I think the money line was +190 or so. Are they crazy? Sure the NFC had some major problems this year, but the Falcons and the Eagles were by far the best teams and will most likely be able to hold their own against either the Steelers or the Pats.

Falcons - Eagles Notes:

• Atlanta is probably the best or second best team in the NFL when they are at home and playing with the lead. Those two strengths were obvious last week when they outscored the Rams 19-0 in the second half of the NFC Divisional Playoff.


• One of the reasons behind their success this season with the lead, as I detailed last week, is the Falcons’ ability to get to the quarterback with just their front four rushers. During the regular season, DE Patrick Kerney had 13 sacks, DE Brady Smith had 6, DE Travis Hall had 3, DT Rod Coleman had 11.5, and DT Ed Jasper had 2. That totals up to 35.5 sacks from the defensive line on a team that recorded an NFL best 48 for the season. Last week, Atlanta registered 4 sacks (all from the DL) on Marc Bulger, raising their season total to 52.


• Taking a closer look at these numbers, however, reveals that Atlanta’s defense on the road is a much different beast. In their eight games away from ATL, Kerney had 6 sacks, Coleman 3.5, Jasper 0.5, Smith 1, and Hall 2.5 for a total of 13.5. So the breakdown for the year of these five defensive lineman reads: 22 sacks at home, 13.5 on the road. The Falcons finished with a 4-4 road record and even though their last two losses were in games where they rested many of their starters, the Falcons’ two most embarassing performances of the year came in Kansas City and in Tampa.


• Of the west coast style teams this season, Atlanta faced Detroit, Denver, Seattle, and Tampa Bay (twice). I don’t think their record in those games (2-3) is all that important but I’m almost certain that the Eagles coaches have looked at the film from the Dec 5 Bucs victory more than a couple times.
  
• In that game, Tampa never really moved the ball with any effectiveness against the Falcons’ defense, but they absolutely shut down the Falcons’ offense. The drive log for Atlanta reads: punt, punt, int, fumble, punt, fumble, punt, punt, downs, downs, int, int. The Bucs got to Vick for 5 sacks, 2 picks, and two fumbles lost. Bucs’ DE Simeon Rice really had his game going that day and it seems to be that the Bucs’ key to disrupting Vick over the last three years has been that strong Right End push into Vick’s face. Will the Eagles use Jevon Kearse on the right side to try to mimic Rice’s successes?


• As I discussed here in The Swamp, simply having a strong front four does not guarantee success against Vick. Compare Carolina (who Vick has had monster games against) with Tampa Bay (who has owned #7 for three years) and the big difference between those two is the presence of a strong RE rusher and the play of the Bucs’ linebackers. Carolina plays too much ‘under man’ coverage with their LBs and that’s what opens up all those holes for Vick to escape the pocket. Tampa has been using the ‘under zone’ scheme with their fast LBs (Brooks, etc) and they have the advantage of sitting in coverage with their heads facing the quarterback. So essentially, all three of the Tampa LBs can act as spies in their coverage while the Panthers LBs have their backs turned away from the pocket as they chase down receivers in man coverage. Philly blitzes on almost every down, but they have played a lot less man coverage this year and will probably try to pressure Vick on Sunday with a wide assortment of zone blitz schemes in order to keep all 11 players with their heads facing towards the quarterback.


• One thing that was obvious in the Rams/Falcons game was the St. Louis defenders’ heavy preoccupation with containing Vick. On a couple of long Warrick Dunn runs, Jeremitrius Butler was in a good position to cut off the backside run but ended up a step behind where he should have been because he was looking to see what Vick was doing. Obviously, the Eagles will need better run support from their DBs and with the type of players they have back in their secondary, they should get it.


• On offense, the Eagles showed last week that without TO, they will do everything they can to create individual mismatches. The Falcons have better linebackers than Minnesota does but Atlanta’s group still is not a great one. Len Pasquarelli recently broke down the remaining four’s LB corps and mentions that Keith Brooking is “the Falcons’ most versatile front seven defender.” Jim Mora moved Brooking to the weakside spot this year and Len also notes that “when Brooking came into the NFL, most scouts projected him as a weak-side linebacker because he was such an obvious “space” defender.” Atlanta also could let their experienced and deep group of corners cover the Eagles WRs and stick DeAngelo Hall on Brian Westbrook. Hall is probably the best pure cover guy the Falcons have but he has just 11 games of NFL experience.


• Both of these coaches have the complete support of their players. Andy Reid is Andy Reid (any coach who can get to four straight Conference Championship Games knows what he’s doing) but I think that Jim Mora, Jr is already one of the best head coaches in the NFL. I can’t think of any other person I’d want to see head my local team. Back with the 49ers last year, Mora used to give a weekly report on NFL Total Access and it was clear that Mora has a great understanding of leadership within the game of football. It’s too bad Atlanta and it’s fans suck so bad because they have a GM, a coach, and a quarterback that are impossible to root against. Way too much talent and class for a city so confederated in geography, philosophy, and economics.


• The strength of Atlanta’s offense is obvious in the way they run the ball. Aside from Vick’s improvisations, the Falcons are a very good traditional running team. Their offensive line coach, Alex Gibbs, brought with him to Atlanta a reputation of molding effective, tough, and nasty offensive lines. The Falcons’ average yard per carry this season (5.1) far exceeded the rest of the NFL and that is largely a result of Vick (7.5). But even with just Dunn (4.2) and Duckett, (4.9) this is one of the top running teams in the league. In the snow, they will need to prove they are the league’s best running team.


• Back when these two teams met in the 2002 Divisional Playoff Game, the only touchdown that was scored through the game’s first three quarters came from Bobby Taylor’s 39 yard return of a Vick interception. There will be a lot of different players in this week’s contest, but if the Falcons’ come anywhere close to throwing the ball 38 times like they did against Philly two years ago, it’s going to be a long day for them.

Hockey News

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

The faces of the NHL lockout are undoubtedly Gary Bettman and Bob Goodenow. But this proposed meeting on 1/19 will leave out those two politicians and go straight to the policy men. I’m encouraged a bit by this move (meaning, my interest in covering lockout news has gone from zero to one), but at the same time it may just be another PR move on the part of the NHLPA.

It’s important to understand who will be at this meeting, so here’s a quick breakdown.

OWNERS	PLAYERS
Bill Daly	Ted Saskin
Harley Hotchkiss	Trevor Linden
Bob Batterman	John McCambridge

The CBC has a Who’s who of the NHLPA and a who’s who of the NHL guide that helps. But, if this stuff is of any interest, also check out this extensive interview TSN had with Ted Saskin and this one they had with Bill Daly. Those are the two ‘guys behind the guys’.

Linden and Hotchkiss are basically the voice of the player/owner. Batterman and McCambridge are the hired lawyers.

I’m intrigued by the development of this meeting and while it has been said that neither side will bring a formal proposal to the Wednesday meeting, there’s only one place this whole mess can go from here: up. Oh no! I’m starting to think there may be a chance. I don’t know how those Jets fans do it. Help me.

UPDATE: They will meet again soon.

Tuesday Football

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

I can feel the draw of football slowly leaving me as we get closer to talking about pitchers and catchers reporting for camp. So I’m going to get this out now, and leave it until August.

A lot will happen between the final whistle of Week 17 and the opening kickoff of the 2005 season, but these are a few of the players that I’m looking at for next season’s fantasy football draft.

• Kevin Jones: No one had more rushing yards in the month of December than Jones did. At the end of the season, the Lions seemed to really move their offense away from Harrington and more towards the run. With two top WRs and a top RB in Jones, I would presume that if Harrington is back next season as the starter in Detroit, the team will be using more of the playaction type offense that was so popular (Indy, Pitt, etc) this year. The four touchdowns Jones had in his last 5 games also tells me the team featured him more on key downs. Mariucci’s history with running backs scares me a little, but it really looks like he’s got a good one here.


• Julius Jones: Another rookie RB that came on late in the season, I expect Julius to have well over 300 carries in 2005 if he can stay healthy for them all. It doesn’t look like the Cowboys are going to change around their QB position much, so Jones should be counted on to continue his late season success. If you project the numbers he had in his last seven games over an entire 16 game season, this would be his line: 439 carries, 1835 yards, 4.18 ypc, and 16 TDs. Now, of course he won’t get 439 carries, but at almost 4.2 a carry, he would still be among the league leaders and well worth a late, first round fantasy pick.


• Nate Burleson: 2005 will be NFL year #3 for Nate, and while he’ll probably never be a top tier WR like Owens, Moss, or Holt he may fit in there nicely with Walker, CJohnson, Horn, Harrison, and others. The thing about Nate that I really like is that he scored touchdowns in 8 different games this year. Some people may think that Burleson’s 2004 numbers came as a result of Moss’ injury and while that may be in part true, the Vikings absolutely love this guy and he’s on track to put up some pretty good numbers in his third NFL season. He’s only 6′0, 192 pounds and he doesn’t have great speed, but he’s got the opportunity to get Issac Bruce type numbers for the next 6-8 seasons opposite Randy Moss.


• Andre Johnson: The Texans really struggled down the stretch, capping their season with a terrible home loss to Cleveland that I still owe money to the the bank for. But when this team was going well, they were throwing the ball to Johnson. I think a lot drafts may overlook the potential a player like this has and therefore he’s on my list of players to watch. There aren’t but a few WRs who have this guy’s size, speed, and polish and he’ll be entering his third NFL season on a team that should be at least .500 next season. The month of October saw Andre net yards and three TDs in just four games. If other people turn sour on the 124 total yards he got in the season’s last four games, Johnson is worth the chance of a third or fourth round pick on his potential alone.


• Carson Palmer: It sounds like TJ Housmanzadah is interested in staying with the Bengals and if that turns out to be true, Cincinnati will boast one of the most dangerous passing offenses in the league. They will need to work on their offensive line in the off-season, but since they don’t have any holes in their skill positions on offense, the amatuer draft and free agent market should provide the Bengals with one or two players to protect their Heisman QB. Palmer is a bit of a sleeper because he got injured at just the time when he was getting hot. Back to back QB Ratings of 127.1 and 110.1 versus the Patroits and the Ravens (both on the road, too) capped Palmer’s sophomore NFL season. And if TJ, CJ and PDub are all back in Cincinnati for 2005, Palmer could easily reach 4000 yards and 30 TDs.


• Kevin Curtis: It may be a little early to talk about Curtis, and maybe I’m just high on him after his Divisional Game performance against Atlanta, but if you consider that Issac Bruce will be 33 next season, the Rams’ 2003 3rd round pick from Utah State may be able to approach 1000 yards in 2005 if he’s given enough playing time. Curtis is not by any means big, but if anyone saw him outrunning D’Angelo Hall on Saturday night, you got a sense of how fast he is. When you consider how high Brandon Stokely will be going in drafts next year, being able to grab Curtis with a late pick is not a bad alternative.

UPDATE: Go ahead and add Tatum Bell to this list too in light of Tuesday’s news that the Broncos are cutting loose of Reuben Droughns.

No Excuses

Sunday, January 16th, 2005

It’s not the big games that Peyton Manning can’t seem to win, he just has a problem with those contests that come with a lot of pressure (yeah). Make no mistake, the Patriots are a very good defensive team, but there were still plenty of opportunities for the Colts to make plays down the field. Indianapolis played not to lose; just like the Chargers did last week and the Jets did this week. The quarterback who set the NFL’s single season TD record this year was a quarterback who was able to consistently stay one step ahead of everyone else. But when that quarterback is forced to play a safe game plan, one not to make mistakes, the advantage he holds over the rest of the league becomes his biggest weakness. There were no red zone turnovers this time, no Pro Bowl defensive plays made against them. There was just the execution of the play called at the line of scrimmage. Today against New Enlgand, Peyton Manning and the Colts failed more than they ever have before.

Friday Juice (For Real)

Sunday, January 16th, 2005

I still intend to put out notes on the two Sunday games (as I did for the NJJ/PIT and STL/ATL games) but I’m going to go ahead and get out some real picks now.

First, a note from the Football Outsiders:

It is often said that home field advantage is key in the playoffs, but that’s not quite accurate. The real advantage comes from a first-round bye. In the wild card round and the championship games, home teams win at the same rate as the regular season. But in the second week of the playoffs, home teams are 45-11 since the postseason expanded to 12 teams in 1990. Just like in the wild card round, each playoff game this week is a rematch of a regular season game. All four of those games were won by the teams hosting this week’s contests.

• New Jersey +8.5 at Pittsburgh - I can only see maybe one road team winning this week, but if I had to pick another one it would be the Jets. Plax or no plax, the last time these two played, the score was 3-3 going into the fourth. Therefore, I’m employing a 6 point tease here. Jets +14.5 under 41. That under 41 is still a low number, but the last four times Pittsburgh has played at home, both teams have combined for 30 or less points. 10 of the Jets’ 17 games so far have fallen under the total and Pittsburgh holds an 8-8 record against the O/U. I don’t really see either team pulling away from the other in this game.

UPDATE: Just a quick note, my confidence in this pick is fading. I think the wise move now is to take either the Jets to win, or the Steelers to cover. If I could change my pick I would, but in my heart I’m leaning towards the Steelers -9.

UPDATE THE UPDATE: Glad I am forced to stick by my guns. Actually, the Update was right on, it’s just that Herm pulled a little Marty ball there at the end.

• St. Louis +7 at Atlanta - I don’t like these Rams. I just don’t think they are that good. Marc Bulger has improved so much that he could be considered the league’s 5th best QB- after the elite four (Payton, McNabb, Culpepper, Brady). And consider also that he’s doing all this with a shoulder injury that probably isn’t 100%. But being able to throw well doesn’t consistently win games on the road. And the only reason the Falcons weren’t considered by some the best team in the NFC this season is because of TO. Now that he’s gone, Atlanta could make it all the way to Jacksonville. Falcons -7 and Falcons -1, over 42 in a six point tease.
• Minnesota +9 at Philadelphia - Who knows how hurt Moss’ ankle is. I don’t think it’ll matter. Lining up against Green Bay is one thing, but these Eages have made it to 3 straight NFC Championship Games with TO for a reason. Minnesota doesn’t have the linebackers to play against the Eagles middle (Smith, Lewis, and Westbrook). But a special teams score will probably be the deciding factor that puts this line onto the side of Philly. Many professional gamblers will say that there’s not much difference in taking a team -7.5 than there is in -9.5. I’ll go with that Vegas proverb here. Eagles -9
• Indianapolis +2 at New England - This will be the 4th game in just over a year that the Colts will play New England in a highly contested match. How many on-field coverage tricks are possible? There’s no way Belichek can come up with something Peyton hasn’t seen by now is there? NE leaving the field uncovered this week may turn out to hurt the Patriots because they are going to need to score a lot to keep pace with the Colts. Even though I also picked Atlanta twice, I don’t like any other game like I do this one. I just don’t think the Colts at their best can lose to what seems to be the Pats at their worse (which for everyone else, still isn’t that bad). Colts +2 and Colts +8, over 46 in a six point tease.

(I also flipped the coin for these four games and it picked all four home teams….)

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: By Beach Decree, I can’t change picks that have been bolded but I can add to them. The Eagles line is now at -8 and I’m favoring the under now, so I’d like to add a six point tease with Philly -2, under 53. I’ve also bumped this post up since it was getting buried down the list.
SUNDAY NIGHT UPDATE: 5-2 on the weekend, 7-4 for the playoffs.

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