Emerald Bowl Preview

There are 117 teams in Division I-A College Football. In terms of pass offense, Navy ranks 116th and New Mexico ranks 115th. This game may come in under 2 hours.

In a battle of two run-first schools, you have to look at the special teams. New Mexico PK Wes Kunker as gone 11 for 16 in FG attempts and punter has put 25 kicks inside the opponents’ 20 yard line this season. For Navy, well, they should just go for it on fourth downs. Their place kicker, Geoff Blumenfeld, is 3 for 10 on field goal attempts this year. Their punter, Eric Shuey, will also have to do better than his 36.7 yards per punt average in this game to give his team a chance.

Where Navy starts it’s drives will be a key to their success. They face the 8th best run defense in the nation and that number means more to me considering New Mexico hasn’t played in many games where they were holding big leads. In fact, all but one of their 7 wins this season have been by less than a two score margin. Sure Navy is the third best rushing team in the country (averaging 291.4 a game) and they have the best amateur fullback in Kyle Eckel, so they will get some yards. But if they are consistently starting drives deep in their own territory, I don’t see how they can manage more than a couple of scores.

The Midshipmen will probably need at least three touchdowns to win this one too because their defense is going to struggle against the Lobos’ power running attack. The only other time this season Navy faced a team with this kind of offense was when they got booted 27-9 by Notre Dame. New Mexico has an experienced RB in Dontrell Moore and should find success moving the ball on the ground against the undersized Navy defensive front.

The concern for New Mexico will be stopping Navy’s option. The only time they saw it consistenly run against them this season was in early October against Air Force. The Falcons ran to a 28-23 home victory in that match and that should give Navy some confidence going into this game. But with almost a month to prepare, I expect the 3-3-5 Lobo defense to contain the option just enough. They can use their two strong safeties to contain the outside pitch and let the rest of the front 6 worry about stopping Eckel.

At minus three points, New Mexico is a slight favorite and that may be a little too much in a game that will probably not feature a lot of touchdowns. But the special teams and field position factors should be enough to lift New Mexico to their first bowl win since 1961.

College Football News Preview
ESPN Preview
ESPN Scouts
Fox Sports