Archive for November, 2004

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Tuesday Things Other Than Football

Tuesday, November 30th, 2004

• There are those who are in favor of naming Pat Tillman in various sportsperson of the year awards. I for one am pleased that Sports Illustrated has selected the Boston Red Sox for 2004. Whatever value is to be judged of Mr. Tillman’s heroicism and sacrifice, it has little to do with sport.
• MLB’s Hall of Fame Ballot is out. Darryl Strawberry? So, coke is okay, but just don’t gamble?
• Sports Blah seems to be the place to for off season baseball speculation.
• The Sports Prof is keeping an eye on Joe Paterno and other college coaching changes. Specifically, the coaching vacuum that has been re-opened in Indiana.
• Today’s Lockout Log is interesting. Since they update daily, I’ll archive it:

  The following is a daily log of the NHL lockout, which began September 16:
  
  TOTAL DAYS: 73
  
  GAMES ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR TODAY: 2
  
  GAMES CANCELED TO DATE: 638
  
  LAST WORK STOPPAGE: 1994 (103 days)
  
  NEWS OF THE DAY: As the number of canceled games continues to pile up, the two sides of the NHL labor dispute appear no closer to coming to an agreement.
  
  After a feature in The Hockey News suggested that the league may be willing to agree to a luxury tax, NHL vice president told TSN in Canada that it was not true.
  
  “We have said repeatedly that a proposal will not work for us,” Daly said to the network. “A tax-based system is too unpredictable and the league’s problems too severe for us to take chances on the future of the game.”
  
  In other off-the-ice news, Atlanta Thrashers star Dany Heatley, who is charged with vehicular homicide in the death of teammate Daniel Snyder, appeared in a pretrial hearing Monday, and The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that a plea bargain is not imminent in the case.
  
  “I believe this case, at this point, appears to be heading to a trial,” Heatley’s lawyer Ed Garland said.
  
  WHERE ARE THEY NOW?: New Jersey Devils center John Madden became the 287th player to sign with a European team Monday, when he agreed to play with HIFK Helsinki of the Finnish League.
  
  Three other players, Washington center Jeff Halpern, Los Angeles center Sean avery and Chicago center Tyler Arnason, all left their European clubs Monday.

  At least people are talking about what they thinking. That’s more than we had a month ago. The Hockey News story mentioned I believe is this one.
• Go here and watch Ales Hemsky skate. He’s good.
• Don’t forget that Ken Jennings loses tonight on Jeopardy. If you want to know the Final Jeopardy question he misses, go here.
• I like this post about baseball juicing from Swing and a Miss.

Monday Football

Monday, November 29th, 2004

• Sportsline’s Clark Judge writes today:

  Arizona coach Dennis Green is suffering a fair punishment for pulling a quarterback at the worst possible moment. I’m talking, of course, of his decision to lift Josh McCown after the Cards won three of four and climbed into the NFC West race. I don’t care what McCown’s numbers were; you don’t mess with something that’s going well, and maybe Green recognizes it now. The Cards are 0-2 since Green made the move, scoring one touchdown in two games.

  Judge also spends a little time on the Seahawks. He thinks that the disastrous loss to the Rams in Week 5 is what has ruined their season.

  Seattle hasn’t been right since that Oct. 10 loss, and these last three games prove it. The club hemorrhages yards and can’t stop crucial third downs, with opponents a combined 20-for-43 the past three weeks — and, remember, that includes a Miami team that couldn’t find the end zone with a Sherpa.
  
  And the first three weeks? Ah, that’s when Seattle was in playoff shape. Opponents were a combined 9-for-42 on third downs, with nobody producing more than 281 yards. All I know is the Seahawks opened the year with three straight wins. Then they were on the verge of putting away St. Louis, and, poooof, just like that, the season disappeared.

  I couldn’t disagree more. At what point this season was this team ever good enough to consider their current failures as a fall from grace? Judge says Seattle was in ‘playoff shape’ during the first three weeks. Wins against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco - no matter the margain of difference - are not indicators of a playoff bound team. I mentioned this briefly back in late September mostly because Seattle had a similar start to 2003 and struggled down the stretch. But what appears to be happening with the Seahawks now is a combination of injuries, loss of confidence, and some really very horribly bad execution. Those are the key ingridients to a disappointing season. Just ask the 04 Panthers and the 03 Bucs. (ESPN’s John Clayton’s take on Seattle here.)
• Recap of yesterday here.
• From Peter King’s column:

  During the Colts’ four wins in 18 days in November, Peyton Manning was at the helm of the offense for 36 drives; 19 of those possessions ended in touchdown passes.

  I like that King has also called out that Ben Burger has ‘looked pretty mortal’ in recent weeks. He has. Another interesting note from King is in the Jets’ last 34 offensive drives, they have gotten two TDs and 22 punts. I add that somehow the Jets have pulled out a couple of wins in games they probably shouldn’t have won.
• King also has a nice quote from Ricky Williams, as reported from an SI article by Mike Silver:

  At least I quit before all the fantasy drafts. Let’s face it: If I’d quit after the drafts, the fans would all hate me.

• PFBW’s Whispers have news that Tyronne Poole could be back by Week 14. They also have this news on Onterrio Smith:

  The Vikings’ coaching staff fully expects Onterrio Smith to retain the starting RB job. Feeling they owed Michael Bennett an opportunity to take hold of the position at which he’s held rank for three seasons, Minnesota was disappointed Bennett didn’t make the best of his chances as the starter. Smith started in Week 12 and, barring any health-related issues, should stay there.

• Julius Jones is not only a very good NFL running back, but he’s playing for a coach that appriciates using a good back when he has one.
• Travis Henry is out for the year.
• The Sports Frog pointed me today to this article on the Broncos’ loss last night in the snow. Denver writer Mark Kiszla calls this Broncos team a ‘fraud’ and says they ’still make the playoffs, but they aren’t going anywhere.’ I’ve thought all season that this offense is very smoke and mirrors but I got burned early on picking against them. Their defense is the strength of this team and despite what Kiszla writes, Champ Bailey is a good addition. Sure Champ did look bad last night- in conditions less than normal. My question is for the defensive coaches who think that Bailey can cover people one-on-one on nearly every down. Chad Johnson took him to school in Week 7 mostly because they were always lining up against each other. Dear Denver, there are some other very good playmakers on this team, stop turning your defense into a ‘Randy Ratio’ type scheme. Dear Kiszla, your Broncos aren’t done yet. San Diego isn’t playing particularly well either and could have very easily lost its last two games. They faceoff this week in John Lynch’s hometown.
• McNair is hinting at retirement.
• Alge Crumpler has signed a contract extension.
• If the new rage in the NFL is to find basketball players (Tony Gonzalez, Crumpler, Antonio Gates) and teach them how to run corner routes inside the red zone, why doesn’t every team just hire a good basketball coach and teach every player how to use their body properly to gain position? It’s amazing how short sighted people can be sometimes.
• Yes, Randy Moss returned to action yesterday, but did you see how bad the hitch in his getty-up was?
• Brett Favre starts consecutive game # 200 tonight. Be mindful of the status of Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport. The Rams are close to last statistically against the run (although they looked better last week against McGahee) and Green Bay will need at least one of those guys to beat St Louis. This is an interesting matchup because the Packers base the success of their defense on stopping the run without overloading the line of scrimmage with players. The Rams have no intension of running so they won’t be playing into Green Bay’s strength. St Louis has a banged up secondary and I think the over (51) is probably the best bet here.

Sunday Juice

Sunday, November 28th, 2004

Forgot to make my picks in time to get the details in. So just for the record, Bucs to win, Texans -1, and a 6 point teast with the Broncos -6 and Pats -1.

Saturday Juice

Saturday, November 27th, 2004

• Over 45, Syracuse at Boston College - BC’s going with a freshman at QB after losing Paul Peterson last week. That’s usually good for an extra defensive touchdown. Syracuse will need it too because I don’t see them scoring a lot of points here. BC needs this game to take the Big East and earn their first ever BCS bid. The Orangemen need this game to become bowl eligible. 45 is still a little high (a 31-14 game?) so I’m more interested in buying this down in a teaser with one of the below selections. Yahoo
• Viginia Tech -3.5 vs Virginia - Tech has two games left, this one and an ACC showdown at Miami. At the most important part of their season’s schedule, the Hoakies have been playing at their best. They are coming off a 55-6 ripping of Maryland last Thursday night to earn their sixth straight victory. QB Bryan Randall looked especially strong last week. The Cavs, meanwhile, have been up and down this season. The real strength of their defense is at linebacker but there are holes that talented teams like FSU and Miami have been able to exploit. VTU is the third ranked team Virginia will face this season. The Cavs are 0-2 so far against the top 25 and they’re also on the road in a state rivalry. I really like this game. Yahoo
• Iowa St. -4.5 vs Missouri - I’ve run out of time, but ISU takes the Big 12 North with a win today while Mizzou has lost 5 in a row and is already looking towards next season.
Yahoo

Thursday Football Preview

Wednesday, November 24th, 2004

COLTS - LIONS:

• The Colts’ two starting guards sat out last week’s win at Chicago and it looks as though they will both miss this game too. Backups Ryan Lilja and Jake Scott will be forced to start again for Indianapolis but this time they will face a much different set of defensive tackles in Detroit’s Shaun Rogers and Dan Wilkinson. Unlike Chicago’s DTs Tommie Harris (300 lbs) and Ian Scott (305 lbs), Rogers (345 lbs) and Wilkinson (335 lbs) get the job done with three additional cheeseburgers behind them. Still, teams have been able to run to the outside of Detroit’s front seven and I expect with those stretch plays Indy uses, Edgerrin James should have another good day.
• Even though it’s a short week for both teams, the advantage should go to the Colts since they had an easy second half of last week’s game. Minnesota’s come from behind victory against the Lions wasn’t so leisurely.
• Something from ESPN’s scouts (Insider) to else to look for during the game:

  The Lions are struggling in third and long situations because Harrington has a tendency to look for Roy Williams in these situations. Defenses know it, and they are rolling their coverage that way. With the Lions not running the ball well, it will be important for them to get positive yardage on first and second down so they have more third and short yardage, where they have the option to run or pass.

• Dungy’s defensive squad have been better lately, thanks in part to an improved and more balanced pass rush from Dwight Freeney and Raheem Brock.
• Finally, anyone disappointed with Brandon Stokely’s 1 catch performance from last week shouldn’t be worried about this matchup. After Dry Bly and Fernando Bryant at cornerback, there is a significant drop off in depth. Also noteworthy is that the Lions secondary is made up of smaller players who rely on their quickness and instincts. Reggie Wayne and Marcus Pollard should benefit in the red zone because of that.

While the line has gone all the way to 9 in some places, I think Detroit, who’s usually good on turkey day, is playing for their season and should keep things close for a while. But it’s bad news to go against Manning, even at -21.

BEARS - COWBOYS:

• I think having a short week to prepare may actually help Drew Henson. Maybe there’s going to be more of a sense of ‘just go out there and play’ tomorrow than there would be under normal circumstances. Obviously, Parcells isn’t going to throw the entire playbook at him, even if he had two weeks to prepare. But like an un-iced kicker trotting out onto the field with the play clock winding down past 15, it may be good for Henson to get in there like this on the short week.
• Against Billy Volek a couple of weeks ago, the Bears really came out after him with constant pressure. After halftime, the Titans starting hitting deep throws to Drew Bennett because he could out-jump the single coverage Chicago was leaving on him. As a result, the Bears had to back off the blitzing and Tennessee had more success moving the ball downfield. Volek ended up throwing for over 300 yards, but he never really looked confident doing so. I think everyone agrees Chicago will start the game with the same philosophy in order to see how the young Cowboy quarterback reacts. The question will be if Drew can hit enough passes to get the Bears to back off a bit.
• Depsite the final score of last week’s game at Baltimore, Dallas actually lead 3-0 at halftime. Having already lost Jamal Lewis, the Ravens changed their philosophy during the break and came out in the third quarter throwing the ball well against the Cowboy defense. Chicago will have to do the same if they want to create anything consistent on offense. And anyone who has ever started a game at quarterback in the OSU/UM series comes into the NFL with more experience than most others, so I’m not one to go against the Bears on the road just because of Craig Krenzel. He’s not losing games for them, he’s not the one winning them either.
• There are a few interesting side-plots to this matchup. Two of the most obvious are 1) the Jones brothers and 2) the OSU (Krenzel) - UM (Henson) connection. I think Drew was already playing baseball by the time Craig was the Buckeyes’ starting QB, so this is probably the first time they’ve faced each other.

This is one of those weaknesses vs weaknesses games that will probably end up having more scoring than most imagine. I think the Cowboys will take it though.

UPDATE: I mentioned that Henson and Krenzel never faced each other in college and that is a fact. But they did square off in the Michigan high school football circuit.

Wednesday Football

Wednesday, November 24th, 2004

Light Turkey Edition

• Germany has declared war on the Jones’ boys. (Okay not really Germany.)
• Do not, and I mean don’t ever, underestimate what playing on Thanksgiving does to Detroit and Dallas.
• Matt Hasselback’s status is still uncertain.
• ESPN is reporting Kelly Holcomb will start this week.
• Jay Fielder hit the IR today.
• So did Troy Hambrick.
• Of course Washington is a terrible football team right now, but they play San Fran in week 15, Dallas in 16, and Minnesota in 17. Ramsey, Coles, and Gardner could be of some value by then.

Tuesday Football

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2004

• PFBW’s Whispers. Nothing too important here. We’re getting into that time of year where we know a cow is a cow, but we just want to know if the cow is gonna show up on Sunday. What? …The few things of note are that Jimmy Smith intends to play for another 3 years. Norv Turner has Al Davis’ support. Dan Morgan’s career may be over. Chad Pennington’s return is at the earliest, Dec 5th. And Mike Alstott hasn’t been running timid since his come back from his knee injury.
• It’s way too late to pick up players like Julius Jones, Nick Goings, and Deion Branch. But if you have them, don’t be afraid to start them in the coming weeks. I’ve said a few times that Branch would be among the league’s leaders had he not been injured. Carolina has some favorable matchups that they will be able to run on, and he Cowboys will not only want to look at what Jones can do, but they also don’t have other options at RB. Especially if they end up having to play Drew Henson.
• Jamal Lewis may miss this week’s and next week’s game.
• Some possible implications from Clemson and South Carolina’s removal from bowl consideration here. I’m a little disappointed that USC (not the Reggie Bush one) won’t be around to bet against during bowl week.
• More bowl talk here at the USA Today. And the Sports Prof weighs in as well. Somehow, the simple solution (one championship game following all the bowls) seems to escape the BCS and the NCAA.
• Sports Filter pointed me to this research about icing kickers in pressure situations. Apparently, over the last two seasons in the NFL it has shaved a 10% probability off the success rate of “pressure” kicks.
• Ahman Green’s ribs aren’t fractured. They (the Packers, not the ribs) don’t have a timetable for a return yet, but there is relief the news wasn’t worse.
• Mike Tice is making Jacksonville prepare for Randy Moss. “25 plays, mostly in 3 WR sets” is what he says. I’m still skeptical, but this return is on pace based on the original timetable.
• Leftwich is eager to start this week. Nothing official yet from the coach.
• An important article about how the Chargers played on Sunday and what their coach thinks of it. San Diego did not look very good in their 23-17 victory at Oakland. They turned the ball over in the red zone, missed two field goals, and were fortunate that Ronald Curry dropped an easy TD pass with four minutes left. Tomlinson was the deciding factor in the game. He came through with some nice runs in the 4th quarter to keep the clock moving. This story shows me that the Chargers aren’t sitting back, content with their record.
• Here’s an easy breakdown of the NFL playoff races.
• Bowl projections here. List of eligibles here.

Monday Football

Monday, November 22nd, 2004

How good was the weather yesterday on the Beach? I was 16 Arizona Cardinal points away from hitting a five dollar, 15 team - 7 point tease parlay card. That’s just two Josh Scobey touchdowns and two Shaun King conversions from a remarkable ending to an already profitable day. Oh well, I still made out well ahead- essentially going 7 for 7.

With bye weeks over, injuries will play as important a role as any other factor down the stretch. Keep an eye on those banged up superstars.

QUARTERBACKS

Jake Delhomme went 12/25 despite having a broken thumb in his throwing hand. Rodney Peete did come in and finish the game. At least for now, it looks like Jake will be playing through the pain.

Jeff Garcia did not play in the second half of the Browns loss to New York. He separated his shoulder. Kelly Holcomb went 4/10. Garcia said, ” “I was not 100 percent. I couldn’t squeeze the football.” He’s got an MRI today.

Drew Henson came in for the Cowboys after Vinny suffered a ’shoulder injury.’

AJ Feeley had an injured hip and created one of my favorite highlight shots of the weekend when he was limping off after a play and a teammate gave him a congratulatory pat on the butt causing AJ to scream out in pain.

Matt Hasselback sat out in favor of Trent Dilfer. Matt has a thigh injury and probably would have started if he was playing well.

RUNNING BACKS

Jamal Lewis left yesterday’s game in the first quarter and never returned. He’s got an MRI today but he thinks he’ll play next week vs the Pats.

Ahman Green injured and then re-injured a rib problem yesterday. He’s day to day.

Chris Brown sat out the Titans win at Jacksonville with turf toe. A smart move by Jeff Fisher. I expect Brown to be questionable for the rest of the 2004. He expects to play next week.

Curtis Martin suffered a knee injury half-way through yesterday’s game. He played some after that, but Lamont Jordan finished the game. Martin’s probable for next week.

LT looked good, not great against the Raiders yesterday. He says he’s at 90%.

Julius Jones not only played, but played a lot yesterday. He looked a little tentative at times, but on the whole I expect him to get a lot of carries over the remaining 6 weeks.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Plaxico Burress left the Steelers’ game with a hamstring injury that may force him to miss time. This one will probably take all week to decide.

Torry Holt was forced out of his second straight game, but this time because of a knee injury. Mike Martz is turning into Steve Spurrier and claims that the Bills were going after their knees. He also said that Holt should be fine.

Koren Robinson’s suspension is set for 4 games, but he missed yesterday’s game because he was suspended by his team for violating a team rule. That’s 5 total. He sucks.Story

Randy Moss practiced today and Coach Tice is waiting to see how he feels tomorrow to speculate further.

Sunday Morning Notes

Sunday, November 21st, 2004

• The Ravens will get back Jonathan Ogden, but won’t have Deion Sanders or Chris McAllilster. That worries me a bit. The Cowboys’ only experienced WR is Keyshawn, so Baltimore will look to pressure Vinny today. A Cowboys win could be the surprise of the day and I’d consider excluding them from my teaser card. Parcells has also announced that Julius Jones will dress and backup Eddie George.
• Breaking news, Shaun King will start for Arizone today. I like this play. King has experience in Carolina from his days with the Bucs.

Sunday Juice

Sunday, November 21st, 2004

There’s something frightening about this week’s picks because too many just seem too obvious. Nonetheless, after getting burned (despite going 3-1) by the Anthony Davis injury and Big Ten showdown in Iowa yesterday, a rebound is in order.

There are a lot of games with a lot of big lines, so I’m looking at just a few straight up, and then one precise 7 point teaser.

• San Diego (-3.5) at Oakland - I would imagine many consider this line a little low. The Chargers handed Oakland a 42-12 loss just three weeks ago. The Raiders have some injuries on defense, specifically at linebacker, that will prohibit them from containing Antonio Gates. Both teams are coming off their bye weeks, so there is a little bit of variable that goes with that. I wouldn’t discount buying this down to 3 just to be safe. Hank reports Marty is 22-7 all time against the Raiders.Yahoo - ESPN
• Atlanta (-3) at New York - Another late game, road team here. The Falcons are 3-1 on the road so far and 14-13-1 since 2001. If minus three is all they’re giving me, then a large number of people must think that Eli is going to come into this game poised, confident, and accurate. Did anyone see the game the Falcons played against the Bucs last week? All the talk of what Rod Coleman brings to Atlanta’s defense is for real. So as long as he doesn’t get into another car accident on the way to the game, go with the Falcons. Yahoo - ESPN
• Buffalo (+1) vs St Louis - I can’t believe how easy the Rams’ schedule has turned out to be this season. Considering Seattle’s struggles, the best team in the NFC South may indeed be the Cardinals. Martz’s team is 2-1 on the road this year, but those wins were against SF and Seattle (that game they should have lost). I read somewhere that Buffalo is a cold, miserable place and these two teams could not be any more ideologically different. The Rams gave up 122 to Corey Dillon two weeks ago and 176 to Shaun Alexander last week. Both are strong runners who look to use their strength to break runs 15 yards at a time. In cold November games, go with the defensive team that runs well. Yahoo - ESPN
• 7 point teaser of the day - Colts (to -1), Ravens (to -1), Jaguars (to +4), Over in the Denver/NO (to +40). Take a picture.

Sunday Football

Sunday, November 21st, 2004

• “People who get paid to cover the NFL” picks: CBS - Peter King - Vinnie Iyer - PFBW - ESPN - Yahoo
• Also take note of these pregame trends from Fox.

Saturday Juice

Saturday, November 20th, 2004

It’s rivalry weekend, and that usually means rankings, stats, and trends shouldn’t matter. Buyer beware. It’s not picking the hard games that count, it’s just picking the winners.

• Wisconsin (+3) at Iowa - The 49-14 score from last week’s MSU upset over Wisconsin maybe wasn’t as bad as it looks. Trailing by 7 points just before half time, Anthony Davis was stopped on a fourth down run just short of the goal line. After the half, the Spartans came out and put up 28 unanswered points. But before picking the Badgers, take notice of what this quote says and who is saying it:

  “We can still make it a great season,” punter Ken DeBauche said. “We have a week left, and we can still go out on top.”

  Hmmm. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
  
  Then there is this talk of Iowa losing its top five running backs to injury this season. How many more can they have? If you can’t run the ball at home, you can’t hold a lead. So even if Iowa gets out to an early lead like they did last week (going up 23-10 at halftime in their big win over Minnesota), I don’t expect them to be able to hold it. Also, the Buckeyes last week needed the help of five field goals from their kicker and almost lost to the Gophers because they couldn’t convert their drives into touchdowns. There’s no way they can win that way against this Badgers’ defense. So while I question Wisconsin’s determination after such a disappointing loss to finish their season as strong as they started it, I’m putting my peanuts on the better team here. They’ve defeated both Purdue and Ohio State on the road and at +3/+125, the value is there. Yahoo - ESPN


• That’s my big dog of the day. Also give me Clemson -3 vs South Carolina, Navy -3 vs Rutgers, and Iowa St. +10 at Kansas St.

UPDATE: What happened to Anthony Davis? When did he get hurt? And with the Michigan loss, this game is for a trip to the Rose Bowl, thus leaving my realm of meaningless games. Oh well.

Thursday Football

Thursday, November 18th, 2004

Featured today are red zone offenses. Specifically, who teams throw to when they are inside the twenty yard line. Having a wide receiver pick up a cheap touchdown can save a bad day of yardage. So here’s a quick rundown of what team’s tendencies are inside the red zone:

ARIZONA

They seem to favor the run whenever they do get into the red zone, a result of having the all-time leading rushing and a thrid year QB in the backfield. No one has had more than three red zone passes thrown to them this season. I’d assume that Larry Fitzgerald would be the guy here if they had more confidence in both him and McCown.

ATLANTA

Alge Crumpler leads the team with 51 overall targets and that doesn’t change when they get in the red zone. His 9 targets are six better than the next person on the list (Justin Griffith) but the Falcons are still a run first (65%) red zone team.

BALTIMORE

The top of the NFL alphabet is also the top of the red zone runners. These first three teams, along with the Steelers, compose the top four in average percentage of red zone rushing plays. But they all do it differently. The Ravens just give the ball to Jamal. 70% of the time. Recently, however, the 6 foot 6 inch Clarence Moore has been a red zone favorite, catching 3 out of 3 passes for two touchdowns. Keep an eye on him over the next few weeks to see if that keeps up. The return of Todd Heap will also diversify Baltimore’s options inside the twenty yard line.

BUFFALO

Across the entire field, Eric Moulds leads all Bills with more than double the targets than the next receiver (Evans). In fact, Moulds’ 84 are closing in on triple of Lee Evans’ 31. Inside the red zone, Eric is still the favorite. He leads the team in targets (7), catches (5), and touchdowns (3). Not far behind, however, is Damion Shelton (I’m not really sure who he is or what position he plays though). Shelton has caught 4 of 6 passes but for only 16 yards and zero touchdowns. The rise of Willis McGahee has made Buffalo more of a run first offense recently.

CAROLINA

One might think that the Panthers red zone offense has been a victim of their depleated running game but in fact Carolina is in the top 10 in converting red zone chances into touchdowns. And they are doing it primarily through the air. Muhammad is by far the leader with 5 catches, 11 targets, and 4 touchdowns. Clearly, his size and strength are one of the few remaining weapons this team has and Jake Delhomme has a lot of trust in him. Brad Hoover’s 2 touchdowns on 4 of 5 passes are second on the list.

CHICAGO

Other than Thomas Jones and Anthony Thomas, there is nothing of value to discuss here. The Bears are a running team and they have a young quarterback.

CINCINNATI

The Bengals stay balanced when they get in the red zone. Rudi Johnson is an effective inside the tackles runner and Chad Johnson is strong and quick enough to get off the line of scrimmage. Chad’s 12 targets are by far the most on the team, but they haven’t resulted in any touchdowns yet. Cincinnati saves those for plays to their fullbacks and tightends. Peter Warrick was a good player for this team last season inside the twenty and they continue to miss his presence.

CLEVELAND

A guy for the Browns who plays a lot like Warrick is Dennis Northcutt. Dennis leads the Browns with 7 RZ targets. He’s caught four of them but none for touchdowns. Aaron Shea is the one they’ve gone to on four occasions (three for TDs). After that, Quincy Morgan was next on their list before he got traded. I assume that the Browns will look to use Antonio Bryant’s size advantage here soon.

DALLAS

Jason Witten has been the Cowboy’s offense this season. He’s brought in an amazing 54 of the 68 passes thrown to him (79%). That number is an indicator that he is a real good football player who has very good hands and also the ability to get open in tight spaces. Dallas’ RZ offense is right at a 50-50 run/pass balance but when they do throw, they are most effective when throwing to Jason. Two of his touchdowns are from the inside the twenty yard line. Surprisingly, Keyshawn Johnson is getting his chances (6 targets) but has only caught 1 of those passes. It was at least good for a score.

DENVER

You can forget about looking for Ashlie Leslie in the Denver’s RZ offense. He has had 6 targets there, but only 1 catch for eight yards. Leslie is more of a deep threat who isn’t known as a physical player or one with exceptional hands. Rod Smith, on the other hand, is exactly that. Smith’s 10 targets lead Denver, as do his 5 RZ catches and 3 RZ touchdowns. Also high on the list is Patrick Hape, a TE/HB who has been used as the blocking tight end in Denver. Coach Shannahan uses Jeb Putzier a lot in this offense, but his TE of choice in the red zone is Hape.

DETROIT

Ah, Detroit. With all the Joey Harrington apologists turning against him for blood now, who knows what will happen over the next 6 weeks. But so far the season, Roy Williams has earned his money inside the red zone. Considering he’s only played seven games this season (and many of those while injured) Roy’s caught 3 of 6 passes for 3 touchdowns. He’s got the size and strength and also the technique to catch passes with his hands away from a defender on a fade or with his body in those tight spaces in the back of the end zone. Stephen Alexander has also been targeted 7 times, catching 4 of them for 25 yards and no touchdowns. The Lions have really spread things around, throwing RZ TDs to 5 different players so far.

GREEN BAY

Man these guys score a lot. In the red zone, they throw a little bit more than they run (60/40). And they really spread the ball around. Walker - 6/11 48 yds 4 TDs. Driver - 5/9 39 yds 1 TD. Fisher - 7/7 35 yds 2TDs. Franks - 5/6 44 4 TDs. Green, Henderson, and Ferguson have also scored 1 touchdown.

HOUSTON

The Texans stay balanced, but they have been very up and down this season. When they’re up, they’re getting production from Andre Johnson. He’s caught 5 of 9 RZ passes for 45 yards and 2 TDs. All of the Texans’ RZ TD passes have gone to wide receivers. Armstrong, Gaffney, and Bradford all have one.

INDIANAPOLIS

Every Edgerrin owner has been complaining about this and here’s why: Harrison - 8/14 53 3 TDs. Wayne - 7/11 49 4 TDs. Pollard - 6/8 57 5 TDs. Clark - 4/7 26 4 TDs. Stokely - 3/4 19 2 TDs. Mungro - 2/2 2 2 TDs. And finally, James - 2/2 13 0 TDs. The one thing of note here is how Stokely isn’t featured too often. Inside the 20, the Colts usually go to their favored two tightend sets and have the perfect red zone combination of size (Wayne, Pollard) and quickness (Harrison, Clark).

JACKSONVILLE

Here’s another team that spreads things around inside the twenty. Ernest Wilford had those two game winning TDs early in the season but hasn’t done much since. LeBrandon Toefield caught his first RZ TD last week. First round pick Reggie Williams has the size to be effective here, and has gotten the second most amount of chances (5) but has only produced 1 catch for a meager 4 yards. Jimmy Smith is the team leader in targets with 7, but also has just one catch (6 yards). The Jags score with ends and backs primarily. Greg Jones has also taken over the short yardage duties.

KANSAS CITY

Two of the easiest calls here are KC and San Diego. Gonzalez has been RZ targeted 12 times, catching 7 of those for 51 yards and 2 TDs. Interesting to me that Johnnie Morton was second on the list with 5 catches on 7 targets, 51 yards and 1 touchdown. The Chiefs’ other tight-end, Jason Dunn is 3/3 with 3 TDs. KC is more of a running red zone team. Obviously, more of the chances normally go to Tony and Priest. But things may get interesting if Holmes keeps sitting out games.

MIAMI

This is all for very little, since the fish are undergoing a change in coach, quarterback, and desire to win. Chambers was the team’s red zone leader with 8 targets, but it’s probably safe to bring this one back to square one for the near future.

MINNESOTA

The team that has redefined the red zone pass (at nearly a 70/30 ratio), has been struggling of late without Moss. Before the injury, Randy had 12 RZ chances and he converted on 7 of them for a striking 6 touchdowns. Those 7 catches were for a total of 22 yards (a 3+ yard per catch average). Marcus Robinson is also a favorite. He has gone 6/10 this year for 41 yards and 5 TDs. Nate Burleson, however, is the one who’s received the most total chances with 15. He’s caught 9 of those for 77 yards (an 8.5 yard per catch average inside the 20!!!) and 4 TDs. Jermaine Wiggins is 5/6 for 29 and 3 TDs and the only other player of note is Moe Williams at 4/6 45 and 1 TD.

NEW ENGLAND

Perhaps no other team over the last five seasons has better utlized it’s entire roster than the Patriots. But, injuries (Branch, Watson, Brown, Offensive Line) have changed the way New England’s red zone offense has looked since the preseason. 11 Patriots have been red zone targets so far this season, which is among the most of all NFL teams. Despite that, there are three clear leaders of the pack- if for no other reason than because they’ve stayed healthy. Daniel Graham - 6/7 32 5 TDs. David Givens - 3/8 16 2 TDs. David Patten - 4/7 28 3 TDs. Graham’s number have dropped lately because he’s been asked to block more due to changes along the offensive line. I also think the Pats had a lot of Colt-like things in mind when they drafted TE Ben Watson last summer. That will have to wait until at least 2005.

NEW ORLEANS

When Boo Williams is healthy, he seems to be the favored target here (5/8 52 2 TDs). But Joe Horn’s quickness and jumping ability gives him enough to be a goto guy in the red zone. He’s got decent numbers to back that up to; 6/8 37 4 TDs. After that, it’s hit or miss. Donte Stallworth suprised me with his 4/4 21 and 1 TD. Those numbers aren’t too bad for a guy who was recently demoted to the #3 WR because of inconsistency.

NEW YORK GIANTS

How many Giants have caught a red zone touchdown pass this season? Only Jeremy Shockey, but at least he’s caught four of them. A new quarterback here will also signal new trends. But it’s still interesting that only one player has been able to score from short yardage. They’ve gone to Ike Hilliard 12 times and he’s produced 8 catches and 36 yards out of those attempts. Toomer, on the other hand, has only caught 1 of his 8 passes. After those three, there isn’t much diversity in the play calling.

NEW YORK JETS

You can always count on those west coast teams to spread it around to their reserve backs and ends. Chris Baker leads them with 4/5 and 3 touchdowns. The other tight end, Anthony Becht, has gone 3/4 but hasn’t scored. When Justin McCareins was acquired, many hoped he would become a solid red zone threat, but that hasn’t happened just yet. He’s still tied for the team lead in targets with 5, but has only produced 1 touchdown from the 3 catches he has. This is Curtis Martin’s RZ offense, except when he’s tired and then it becomes Lamont Jordan’s.

OAKLAND

Like New England, the Raiders’ offense has been hit by injuries and they’ve used a lot of different players to try to get into the end zone. The Raiders have thrown to 10 different receivers or backs but the only one that has been targeted with any consistency is Joey Porter. Still, his production has not been consistent as he’s brought in only three of the 10 passes thrown his way for only 1 touchdown. The Raider offense has struggled all season, but the only player of note that I see making a regular impact from here out is Doug Jolley.

PHILADELPHIA

It’s TO’s world. 11 targets, 7 catches, 60 yards, and 5 touchdowns. After that, LJ Smith has those 3 TDs he got early in the year. There just isn’t much else here.

PITTSBURGH

Despite their 65/35 tendency to run more than pass inside the twenty, the Steelers receivers have had some success in the red zone. Plaxico’s size gives him an advantage and he’s produced 4 catches on 6 attempts for 32 yards and 2 TDs. Hines Ward has done well too, going 5/8 31 2 TDs. After that, there is only the odd single touchdown, from TE’s Tuman and Riemersma and RB Haynes and WR Randel El.

SAN DIEGO

Keenan McCardell has always been a good red zone option and if he wasn’t sharing opportunities with Antonio Gates, I’d say he was a great late season fantasy option. Keenan is still a good play, having been targeted 7 times in only two games. He has caught 3 of those for 1 touchdown, but really those chances seem to have come more from Eric Parker (who’s only been thrown one RZ pass in the last three weeks). The stud of the group, and maybe of the entire NFL is Gates, who has converted on 11 of 14 passes for 65 yards and 8 touchdowns. This is a two man show now, but look for Justin Peelle to get some chances in the same way Jason Dunn does in KC.

SAN FRANCISCO

As productive as Brandon LLoyd has been this year, he hasn’t been targeted in the red zone too often. That surprises me because this guy can flat out steal the ball away from defenders, the sideline, from low flying aircraft, and just about anything else that gets in his way. He’s got 4 of the 5 Niner touchdowns from 39-20 yards out, but once they get closer this team goes to Eric Johnson (5/8 42 2 TDs) and Curtis Conway (3/9 29 1 TD). Lloyd’s RZ numbers so far are 1/5 12 0.
SEATTLE

Perhaps because they don’t catch the ball real well, the Hawks’ WRs are an afterthought in their red zone offense. But maybe it also has something to do with that they have one of the great touchdown performers of this generation in Shawn Alexander. The guy just knows how to score and this team has no problem letting him. In addition to his 9 overall rushing TDs, Alexander has been the Hawks’ most frequent receiving option in the red zone with 7 catches on 10 attempts for 3 TDs. After Shawn comes Darrell Jackson (2/7 11 1), Jerramy Stevens (2/6 19 0), and Mack Strong (5/5 28 0). Koren Robinson? Not so much. 2 targets, zero catches.

TOO FAST, TOO FURIOUS

Running only when they have to, the Rams spread it around to Holt (4/9 36 1) and Bruce (5/7 42 2) first. But lately they’ve been using Kevin Curtis (3/4 33 1) and Shaun McDonald (2/3 21 2) more. Not much action for the TE’s so far, Cleeland only has had one pass his way and Manumaleuna two. This is a team that scores from 20+ just as much as they do from the 20 and in.

TAMPA BAY
Jon Gruden loves his tight ends. He also loves to spread it around. No one player has more than 1 RZ receiving touchdown. No one player has more than 3 RZ catches. The teams’ target leader, however, has been it’s most productive overall receiver. Michael Clayton has gone 3/6 16 and 1 TD. Next is Ken Dilger with 3/4 19 and 1 TD. Will Heller, Tim Brown, Jamel Cook, and Michael Pittman have also scored.

TENNESSEE

Who is Troy Flemming and why does he have two touchdown receptions? I don’t really care, actually. Derrick Mason leads the team with 10 targets. He’s caught 5 of them for 29 yards and 1 touchdown. Drew Bennett is next with 4/8 23 and 1 TD. The Titans don’t have a lot of depth anymore, but one lesser known guy who is good for a red zone chance is Shad Meier. He’s caught all 5 of his RZ passes and has scored twice. Enron Kinney has been hurt, but he could end up with a few down the stretch.

WASHINGTON

A true ‘red zone only’ threat has emerged in the 2004 version of Rod Gardner. Once a well rounded prospect, under Gibbs and Brunnel, Gardner has produced 401 total receiving yards this season and 5 total touchdowns. 167 of those yards came in one game. Rod’s red zone number are 6/8 for 63 yards and 5 touchdowns. So, he hasn’t scored from outside the 20 yard line yet, and with the exception of his week three performance against Dallas, he isn’t really worth a fantasy spot for a league that rewards yards more than touchdowns. But if you’re looking for a guy to steal you 6 points, he’s the one. There’s a new QB in town, so maybe things will change. Also of note, Coles leads the team with 10 targets, but he’s only caught 3 of those for just 1 TD. Chris Cooley is their other consistent option. Cooley is a similar player to Patrick Hape, and has similar numbers: 3/8 18 3 TDs.

As always, my raw target stats come primarily from the hard work of The Football Guys.

Tuesday Football

Tuesday, November 16th, 2004

• Mike Holmgren:

  I’m very, very upset. I met with the offensive staff today. I’ve already met with the defensive; I’m meeting with the special teams coach this afternoon. The importance of that game and how we played in the game, it really upsets me a lot. We had good practices. I didn’t understand why we had to function that way when we got into the actual game. I’ve said that. Now, the fact is we have seven games left, five games at home. There are a whole bunch of teams clustered at 5-4. This thing is far from being over. There is a lot of football left to play. There is reason for optimism; there is reason to look ahead. We’ll keep working real hard around here.

• Mike Alstott is probable for this week’s game. It may be wise to handcuff him with Pittman considering the great matchups the Bucs have.
• Lots of headlines today. Just scroll down this list.
• PFBW’s Whispers for this week. Some highlights:

  We’re told Saints head coach Jim Haslett decided to demote WR Donté Stallworth from the starting lineup in favor of veteran Jerome Pathon because he’s tired of using inconsistent players, even if it means putting less talent on the field.
  
  Sources in Minnesota say WR Marcus Robinson (foot) has a more serious injury than the team is letting on and insist that if Randy Moss had played in the last two games, Robinson may not have been available.
  
  The Ravens believe TE Todd Heap, out since September with an ankle injury, will be back no later than Week 13.
  
  Our sources in Seattle say there’s no doubt newcomer Jerry Rice has wasted no time in having a positive effect on the Seahawks’ WR corps, particularly Koren Robinson. Rice, who is still adapting to unfamiliar terminology, has offered more encouragement than tips, but his regal-like presence appears to be making a difference. Dropped passes in practice last week were way down from the previous week.
  
  Word is, the ankle that Cardinals rookie WR Larry Fitzgerald sprained so badly in the preseason is likely to continue bothering him and won’t be fully healed until next year at the earliest.

• More on the Saints’ troubles here:

  Don’t look for the Saints to suddenly turn things around in the second half of the season. We’re told the players no longer are buying what the coaching staff is selling, and that they don’t seem to be getting anything out of practice anymore. Head coach Jim Haslett has been trying to get his players to take more responsibility for the team’s problems, but he also has accused the local media of being too negative and called out the fans at times for not supporting the team. Maybe a bigger problem is that there doesn’t seem to be a leader on the Saints who can call a meeting to try to hash out the team’s problems among the players. QB Aaron Brooks isn’t a vocal leader, DT Brian Young hasn’t been around long enough and OT Wayne Gandy and LB Orlando Ruff both have been inconsistent, which robs them of credibility. RB Deuce McAllister might fit the bill, but there is a sense that the season is lost and no amount of talking will solve the problem.

• Curtis Martin’s two touchdown, 100 yard performance against the Ravens is just another example why it’s not always wise to play the matchup game. It’s one thing to go with a certain player based on a favorable matchup because you need to fill a roster spot, but to sit someone like Martin (or Chad Johnson versus Champ Bailey) just because of a difficult opponent doesn’t always work out.
• Fanball.com has Koren Robinson’s suspension starting as early as this week.
• Kevin Jones look fairly strong against Jacksonvile. He showed some ability to change directions quickly against a tough front seven. It would still be nice to see him get 25-30 carries one game to really see how he does once he gets into a rhythm.

Monday Football

Monday, November 15th, 2004

• The trends are with Philly tonight. The Eagles are 15-1 since the 2000 season when following a loss. They are 12-1 under Andy Reid (1999) in prime time, and 7-1 during that same period on Monday Night. Perhaps because of what the Bengals at home did to Denver a few weeks ago on Monday Night are people talking about how it’s hard to go against the home dog here. But I feel bad about the picks from yesterday (more on that below), so give me the Eagles just to win. And give them to me 5 times to make it worth it.
  
  Last October, Dallas beat Philly in Texas 23-21 to improve their 2003 record to 4-1. That game was pretty much the beginning peak of the Cowboys’ playoff run, so that was a very different Dallas team. And other than that one game, the recent history is owned by Philadelphia (7 of last 8). The Eagles are also 20-8 on the road since 2001.
  
  Reid will need to find a way to control the clock with his offense. Early in the season, they’ve maybe relied a little too much on throwing deep to TO to get them points. Now that teams are using two and three players to take that away, Philadelphia is going to have to learn again how to sustain 80 yard drives for over 5 minutes. Going for them, however, is that their defense should match up well against Dallas. I wish I could 6 point tease the Eagles with the number of times TO dances with pom-poms on the Star.

UPDATE: Good new for the Cowboys, Quincy Morgan will play and Parcells has decided to start Lee at running back. Probably the only reason Lee hasn’t played more in recent weeks is Parcell’s lack of confidence in Lee’s pass blocking. But since the Cowboys have nothing to lose but their season tonight, it’s starting to be clear that Bill has been pulling out all the tricks for this game. It should be interesting to see what effect all this has. I’m backing off my Eagles -6.5 pick, but I still like them to win. Eagles/Falcons tease?

• How bad are things in Washington? Are they asking for Spurrier back? Probably not, but at least his offense could score more points than the one they have now. Last week (week 9 vs Detroit) the Skins scored on a 24 yard field goal, a 15 yard pass FROM Clinton Portis, and on a block punt recovered in the end zone. They had 229 yards of offense (only 73 through the air) against a team that gives up an average of 344 total and 230 passing.
  
  The thing that kills me is that they have one of the top defenses in the league statistically, and they’ve had success running the ball this season. Look at these rushing yards from this season. Week One: 166 vs Tampa’s 30. Week Two: 108 vs NYG’s 62. Week Three: 94 vs Dallas’ 50. Week Four: 73 vs Cleveland’s 96. Week Five: 52 vs Balitmore’s 156. Week Six: 218 vs Chicago’s 126. Week Eight: 81 vs Green Bay’s 88. Week Nine: 156 vs Detroit’s 64. Week Ten: 87 vs Cincy’s 99.
  
  So what’s the problem? Well, they’re last in the league in completion percentage with 49.5 and they’re almost last in yards per game with 173.4. That’s just the beginning of it. What struck me watching this game was when they were calling pass plays.
  
  Washington has one of the best running backs in the game and an above average statistical rushing average at 118.5 ypg. Yesterday they faced a Bengals team that ranks third to last in rushing defense so wouldn’t it seem logical that they would come in and try to control the game on the ground?
  
  Well, the Bengals got out to an early lead despite Carson Palmer throwing a INT on the first play of the game. The first three plays for Washington after picking Plamer off were pass (incomplete), pass (incomplete), and pass (incomplete).
  
  Trailing 17-0, Patrick Ramsey replaced Brunell halfway through the second quarter. But what disappoints me (since I picked them) is what Washington did coming out for the second half. They received the kickoff and went pass (incomplete), pass (incomplete), and pass (sacked). Their next possession went Portis for 10 yards (1st down!!), pass (incomplete), Portis for 5, and pass (sack). Third possession of the second half (starting with 10 minutes still remaining in the third) went pass (incomplete), pass (11 yards to Gardner), and pass (INT).
  
  Okay, so we’re only down by 17 and the Bengals are really getting conservative. They seem to think that we can’t come back against them. There’s plenty of time left (6 minutes in the third) and we can still stay balanced on offense. After all, that’s where our strength is. Fourth possession, pass (incomplete), pass (8 yards to Coles), Portis for 8 and a first down. Okay, this is good. Three fresh downs. Pass, (incomplete), pass (sacked), pass (incomplete). Time to punt. Again.
  
  Trailing by 17 to start the second half, the Redskins ran 13 pass plays and 3 run plays. They “gained” zero yards and added an interception on those 13 pass plays. The three runs by Portis got them 23 yards.
  
  There was one drive that started near the end of the third quarter and extended over into the fourth. They went Portis for 2, and then into the no-huddle and got 14 yards on from a Ramsey pass to Jacobs. No huddle again, Portis runs for 4. No huddle, 4 yards, Ramsey to Jacobs. End of the quarter. Regular huddle, Portis for 8, then Portis for 5. Pass play with an offensive holding penalty, minus 10 yards. Pass play, but Ramsey keeps it up the middle for 3. Incomplete pass on third down and a missed 47 yard field goal.
  
  The fourth quarter saw some success for the Redskins “vertical” offense. After the previous missed FG, they called 22 passes (for 145 yards) and 2 runs (for -9 yards thanks to a holding penalty). They scored 10 points in the fourth quarter but one could assume the Bengals were in some sort of prevent defense. With a minute left and down only seven points, Ramsey did throw an INT from his own 27. Game over. 17-10 Bengals.
  
  In all, the Redskins’ second half featured 40 called pass plays and only 9 called rushes. Why? If you’re offense is Portis and their weakness is rush defense, why? It has to be the coaching, the play calling, and the players. But the next time Clinton Portis speaks out about his team, I’ll be more interested in what he has to say.
  
  View the play by play log.


• The 49ers have lost four games in a row. At halftime of week 6 against the Jets, they led 14-3 on the road. At halftime of week 8 against the Bears, they were tied 13-13 on the road. At halftime of week 9 against the Seahawks, they trailed 17-21 at home. At halftime of week 10 against the Panthers, they led 17-3 at home. The final tally of the first halves for those four games is Niners 61, opposing teams, 40. The final tally of the second halves for those four games is Niners 20, opposing teams 84. Q-U-I-T.
• Don’t underestimate what yesterday’s second half Viking comeback did for this team. Even though they lost, it was the first time since the Moss injury when I really saw that special confidence they had before Moss went out. On Monday Night last week, they also came back to test the Colts, but yesterday they finally looked like they had found their way beyond the Moss injury. Look out next week Detroit. And look out Jacksonville in two weeks, when Moss is expected back. Both games are in Minnesota.
• Speaking of the Vikings, Nate Burleson had 18 passes thrown his way yesterday. 18!
• The Bears defensive line is dominant. Even though Billy Volek threw for over 300 yards yesterday, he looked like Chris Rix back there. This is a physical, fast defense that really took it to the Titans on their home field. It’s truly amazing to watch a team like this win with absolutely no production from their offense. Especially when you bet against them.
• It should be so very important to the Colts that they win enough games to secure home field advantage through at least the divisional playoff game. And with Pittsburgh and New England ahead of them, only two of those teams will be given that advantage.
• All offensive coordinators and quarterbacks: Get in and out of the huddle on third downs fast enough to give you enough time at the line of scrimmage to keep defenses from timing their blitzes according to the play clock. How hard can that be?
• I’d like to go ahead and place a bet somewhere that the Jags won’t have more than 6 wins next season. (See the ‘01 Bears and the ‘03 Panthers)
• After yesterday’s inspriring win, the Baltimore Ravens have turned the corner and will be a force in the 2004 playoffs. It’s hard to believe that the battle just to go to the AFC Championship Game may put the Steelers versus the Colts and the Patriots versus the Ravens.
• How many fans were yelling at Will Demps as he was running with his head turned BACKWARD. Maybe he was trying to read Ed Reed’s lips as they said, “Turn your stupid head around.”
• Guess who has the fourth best record in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons.
• The Lions are really struggling to defend the run. In their last three, they have given up 127 to Dallas, 156 to Washington, and 239 to Jacksonville.

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