Archive for September, 2004

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Thursday Football

Thursday, September 30th, 2004

• I’ve heard rumors around Tampa that this will be Tony Dungy’s last year as a NFL head coach.
• Doesn’t LJ Smith look like a wide receiver when he runs?
• I mentioned last week that David Carr’s passing number are better on the road. Here’s the stats. 7 TDs and 17 INTs at home. 14/15 on the road. Not only are they at home this week, but the Texans also have a rookie starting at CB, had Drew Brees complete 70% in week 1, 72% for Harrington in week 2, and 70% to Trent Green last week. Week 4, it’s the new Raiders. Kerry Collins to Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry, and Doug Gabriel. With Dominick Davis still not practicing, I love the Raiders here so much that I’m sending a messenger to Las Vegas to put $20 on the -2 (pic soon to come). And as I was looking for that Davis update, I found this about the Texans pass D.
• Here’s a good ‘reality check’ story for the Eagles. With comparisons to last year’s Cheifs.
• This Orlando Sentinal article (subsc) expects John Lynch to be welcomed this weekend. With the Bucs 0-3, that’s more than a sure thing. I’d say that he’ll be cheered more total times than the Bucs get first downs.
• Ben Watson is on IR. Daniel Graham and David Givens should get most of the red zone looks for the Pats.
• JP Losman is recovering quickly. If the Bills keep struggling, look out for him towards the end of the year.
• Jerome Pathon is hurting. So is Joe Horn and Talman Gardner. With Duece out too, look for the Cards to upset the undeserving 2-1 Saints.
• Ex-Pitt QB Rod Rutherford subs for Mike Vick at the Panther’s practice. Not exactly the same thing.
• More on Billy Volek. Calico will be a game time decision.
• Anyone embarrassed for Torry Holt after Monday night?
• Some Bills/Pats buildup surrounding comments from Belichick’s new book.

Today’s Baseball

Thursday, September 30th, 2004

• In case you’ve missed out on the story of the Cleveland pitcher who was shot in the leg, here it is.
• MLB has this out to clarify any possible tie-braker scenario
• Eric Gagne was complaining of stiffness and ‘dead-arm’ yesterday and underwent an MRI. It came back ‘clean’ but it sounds as if Gagne may need some real time off before he’s close to 100%.
• Following the inevitable trend that the best regular season team will always peak to soon, Chris Carpenter probably won’t pitch in the NLDS.
• It looks like Kevin Brown will work the ALDS from the bullpen. The things money can buy…
• Note for next year, Shawn Chacon may not have his closer’s job.
• Shortcut to wild card standings.
• Freddy Garcia threw 7 shutout innings yesterday. In his last three seasons, he’s 19-4 during the day and 22-13 at night.
• Vernon Wells has been a real disappointment this season, but his September production makes me think he’ll be a nice pick up at a good value next year.
• The Expos drew a season high 31,395 last night. They lost 9-1. Adieu.
• Jonah Keri fro BP says goodbye to them too.
• Sports Law Blog is asking for team name suggestions at skidmore@law.harvard.edu
• Meanwhile, Sports Blah goes back in time with the Expos.

UPDATE: So this Cleveland pitcher, well he’s fine. If this story is funny to you, it just got funnier.

Wednesday’s Football

Wednesday, September 29th, 2004

• Look at the receiving leaders so far this season. Look at last season’s stats. It’s still early, but there’s not really a pack that is leading the way like there has been in the last few seasons.
• Steve McNair finally made it home from the hospital yesterday. Despite doubts that he will play this Sunday, I think Billy Volek can be a decent fill in for the Titans.
• The NY Post and an AP source have said that Jay Fiedler will start this week against the Jets. It’s being picked up everywhere now. Brock Forsey, who filled in for a few games last season for the Bears, was picked up by the fish and could get a chance at RB.
• With Dominick Davis and Tony Hollings injured, the Texans may have to rely on Jonathan Wells this week. They face the Raiders, who I think will roll over this team. The line was -2 this morning. You can bet that’ll be part of my Friday write up.
• Fanball’s matchup index is out.

More to come as it happens…

Tuesday Football

Tuesday, September 28th, 2004

Three weeks into the season, many patterns have emerged. But even if you’re 0-3 in fantasy land, hope is just a few smart moves away. 0-3 in NFL land, well, start paying attention to players on Saturdays.

The best thing anyone can do is to take advantage of some poor starts and to go out and get someone who may be undervalued. It’s always about value.

A good place to start is with players who just had their bye week. Not only will you not have to worry about sitting them later on in the season, but their stats don’t look as good as most everyone else. Jake Delhomme is a good example here. Not too many people have missed noticing the Jets are off to a great start, so Chad Pennington probably won’t be cheap. But Jake is in a new kind of offense this year in Carolina. I think he’ll put up some decent numbers for the value he’s at right now.

At running back, I can think of no better opportunity than Rudi Johnson right now. With the patches that offensive line has had to put together, and Carson Palmer’s first few starts, it’s not surprising that Rudi hasn’t had a big game yet. But he’s still had decent numbers so far this season. And remember what kind of runner he is. He’s Jerome Bettis minus 30lbs. The cold months should be his months. It’s also not a bad idea to take a shot at LT. He started slow last season too and really finished well.

Wide Receivers are usually the easier bunch to pick up as the season goes on. But consider what the Kerry Collins change will do to Jerry Porter’s future. Also Tyrone Calico has yet to play a game, and maybe somone has given up on him.

Some other notes around the National Football League.

• The NY Times (subsc) has this story about Tiki being the featured back. Every year people seem to write him off, he comes back like this.
• In his Monday press conference, Mike Martz answered questions regarding his lack of balance by saying “You can find another coach then. We’re going to play fast and furious. That’s what we do.” Here’s an article with more detail.
• Lee Suggs expects to be back this week. Butch Davis comments on the offense.
• Stecker has impressed Coach Haslett.
• Brad Johnson will remain the starter. At one point during Sunday night’s game, I think I saw Gruden say something to him about how he was finishing that game no matter what. That’s what it looked like, at least. I think Gruden underestimated the effect bringing in Simms last week would have. It’s almost to the point where you can’t bench the QB to light a fire under your entire team like it used to be done. Like it’s done in hockey with the goaltenders.
• Seahawks defense is getting a lot of recognition. They’ve played 2-1 NO, 0-3 TB, and 0-3 SF. I’m not saying they’re not good, but let’s wait and see.
• Steve McNair is still in the hospital. Status for Sunday still uncertain.
• Interesting story out of Green Bay about two of their CB’s getting into a fight after the week 2 loss to Chicago. With that and the whole Mike McKenzie situation, it’s no wonder they looked so bad against the Colts.
• With not exactly the same violence, Joey Harrington talks about Tony Siragua’s sideline comments.
• Anquan Boldin may be back by October 31.

Today’s Baseball

Tuesday, September 28th, 2004

• It appears that DC will finally get the Expos.

  The deal to move the Expos to Washington would be subject to government approval of funding for both a $13 million refurbishment of RFK Stadium and a new ballpark costing slightly over $400 million, which would be built along the Anacostia River in the southeast section of the city. A move also must be approved by three-quarters of major league owners and survive legal challenges by the Expos’ former limited partners and possibly by Baltimore owner Peter Angelos, who objects to having a team just 40 miles from his. Bob DuPuy, baseball’s chief operating officer, went to Baltimore on Friday to negotiate a compensation arrangement with Angelos.
  
  The Orioles owner told The (Baltimore) Sun that he could be persuaded to drop his opposition if he could be assured that his team and the state of Maryland’s investment in Oriole Park at Camden Yards could be protected.
  
  “If those two goals can be accomplished, and I feel the franchise would be secure and the revenue stream is protected and the asset value is secure, it might be possible to make a deal,” Angelos told The Sun for a story Tuesday.

  There’s more backstory over at Field of Schemes. And the Baltimore Sun (subscription) has some local analysis too. Use Bug Me Not.
  
  This press release from MLB came out at 10:30 this morning says that there is no timetable for the move yet.
  
  The Expos, however, are preparing to say goodbye. Again.
• The Brewers were sold to a LA investor.
• People keep saying Carlos Delgado won’t be a Blue Jay in 05. Here’s an update on the latest news.
• What ever happened to Joe Mauer? Look here.
• Baseball News pointed me to this matchup analysis of the Twins possible ALDS opponent.
• Scott Kazmir was dominating the Red Sox again last night before he got tossed.

Football in NYC

Monday, September 27th, 2004

The SportsProf has a nice piece about the proposed football stadium in New York City.

New Yorkers who want this project to happen should be careful what they wish for. Do they really need this monument? Does it really make a difference that the Jets play in New York City to anyone other than the Jets? Doesn’t it matter more to NYC that businesses still find it an attractive place to keep and create jobs? Doesn’t it matter more that public structures that can do a lot of good — such as the school system — get more attention, not less?

I agree that stadiums should not be at the top of the list of items to be funded by public money, but at the same time I’ve seen first hand the effect the building the Tampa Bay Lightning play in has had on downtown Tampa. The biggest concern I have for the NYC proposal is that there is a great deal of public housing in and around the proposed area and I wonder where those people would end up.

UPDATE: I just found this site, Field of Schemes. They are pretty much dedicated to discussion about frachises, stadiums, and cities. Today’s post is about the NYC hearings.

Monday’s Football

Monday, September 27th, 2004

• Brett Favre has had a bad left shoulder for the last two years.
• Kevin Jones is out for at least two weeks. Pinner has been average with his opportunities and I know Mariucci likes Bryson’s versatility. Mooch will never go with just one back, and even though Bryson doesn’t have much upside, he could easily get 40 yards and a TD one day soon.
• Losing Rex Grossman for the year doesn’t seem like a huge loss statistically, but he brought a lot of energy and spunk to that offense. It’s Thomas Jones’ offense anyway.
• Rich Gannon will be out for at least 6 weeks. Before that was announced, here was an article calling for Norv Turner to make the change to Collins anyway. Many people following the situation didn’t think Gannon would finish the season as the starter anyway. This completes this chapter of the story. I think Oakland will have a good second half of the season.
• Jon Ritchie is out for the year too. Having a FB that can do all kinds of things is pretty important in an offense like Philadelphia’s. There are always people at UPS who could play fullback, but Andy Reid will have just one less weapon as the season goes on. LJ Smith’s injury doesn’t sound serious yet, but we’re still waiting to hear officially.
• Michael Pittman’s first day back is today, and it couldn’t be at a better time. With Charlie Garner lost for the year, expect Pittman to become an immediate impact in the passing game. He may carry the ball 15 times for 40 yards too.
• Denver limited LT to just 2.6 yards per carry on Sunday. Before the season began, I didn’t think the Broncos would finish better than 8-8 because of their offense. But it was clear that they would be better defensively. Their only real weakness will be exploited by a team who has good depth at WR. Obviously, San Diego is not one of them. Denver plays Tampa in week 4.
• The Chiefs have shopped Larry Johnson to the Dolphins, perhaps trying to capitalize on the Fish’s poor judge of talent. In a related story, Lamar Gordon is listed as doubtful for week 4.
• Jags impressed will Chris Brown. I still think he won’t finish the season healthy.
• Here’s a story that makes me think even some of the Rams are raelizing that Mike Martz is not a good head football coach.
• The Vikings are just getting hammered with injuries. They have depth, but do they have this much?
• PFBW’s Whispers are out. Lots of good stuff. Lots.
• Here’s a story about grumblings in KC. Vermeil and Martz having trouble?
• A local Denver writer says the team needs more than just Quentin. I tend to believe that as well.
• My roof did finally stop leaking. Landlord was notified.

Today’s Baseball

Monday, September 27th, 2004

By this time next week, we’ll be looking towards the playoffs. Teams have exactly one week to either make their move or to do something that will give fans hope for 2005.

Some interesting things of note:

• Vinny Castilla leads the NL RBI race by 7. Vinny Castilla!
• Johan Santana’s last bad start was on May 23. Since then, he’s gone at least 6 innings in every start and has not given up three runs or more in all but three. He’s only given up more than 2 ER once since June 3. But really, we haven’t seen anything like this in quite some while. This is his line since the beginning of June:



GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHiP
22	18	3	162	81	29	27	13	31	206	1.50	0.58


The thing speaks for itself. Except for one final fact: his bio says he’s 25 years old.

• Beltre, Pujols, and Bonds are 47, 46, 45 respectively in the HR Race. Interesting that they are all NL players.
• Bonds and Ichiro are one thousandth of a batting point apart. One of them is hitting .373, the other is hitting .372. One of them has 673 AB, the other has 360. One has 58 K’s, the other has 39. And if it were not for Ichiro’s 250 hits, Bonds would have more walks (222) than anyone else had hits.
• I’ve been planning on writing something about Jake Peavy for about a week now but I haven’t found the time to. His numbers are pretty shocking too. A lot of it is that ballpark he’s in but it has to be a lot of him too. I don’t know much about him other than he has been a top prospect for a few years now. Sometime this week I’ll get to figuring out his story and delivering my book report.
• Lots of big pitching matchups tonight. Every game I see someone I’d like to favor, there’s someone else opposing him that is in a good position too.

Live Looks

Sunday, September 26th, 2004

• 1:53 - Jamal Lewis is breaking tackles today.
• 1:53 - Onterrio Smith just doesn’t have the body control and balance to be a great running back. He’s got good instincts and quickness though, but doesn’t protect the ball real well.
• 1:55 - Randy Moss can snatch the ball out of the air like few others. It looks like Roy Williams may have a similar style.
• 1:55 - My roof is leaking…
• 1:59 - The Detroit defense looks very fast. They make mistakes and don’t have much of a secondary, but if you watched Brian Westbrook cut his way through the Vikings last week and see how he’s much more contained today, it’s surprising.
• 2:05 - The Eagles are throwing touchdowns to their long snapper before the first half is over. Shame on those who thought the Lions had a chance today (I guess I was one of them).
• 2:10 - Announcers today are talking about how defenses are trying to strip the football just as much as they are trying to tackle the ball carrier. While that may be true, it’s nothing new. It really just looks like offense players are slow to realize how much more important it is to keep the ball instead of gaining two or three more yards.
• 2:16 - Don’t the Texans realize that Tony Gonzalez is the only above average receiver on that team? They’re running zones like they’re playing the Vikings.
• 2:19 - What does it say about the Dolphins run blocking that the Jets and the Ravens have had their way with the Bengals, but Gordon could only manage 22 yards? And what do you think the Steelers are going to give them tonight?
• 2:21 - My roof is still leaking.
• 2:22 - With the Pitt/Miami game delayed until tonight, the only game the Tampa Bay market is getting right now is the Saints/Rams game. Today alone is worth the entire directv season package.
• 2:37 - The Chiefs D looks more disciplined today, but their offense still can’t get things going. It’s 7-6 at half. My +10.5 is looking pretty good.
• 3:13 - With the score 14-6, I was typing some words about how the Chiefs offense was finally moving the ball. But I’ve just backspaced over those as I watched Coleman run 102 yards. The score is tied now. The Chiefs have looked better this half, but when you see this replay, it’s clear that they are still out of sync.
• 3:23 - If the Cardinals could just score points off of turnovers, they’d be 3-0. Sure, that’s a big if, but it’s more a comment on how poorly the teams they have played are executing.
• 3:49 - The Titans have played all day to lose. And now they’re about to. What stuns me about Leftwich’s 4th quarter drives this season is the amount of time he has had to throw. He just stands back there and fires passes. Hardly ever pressured, he has time to unleash that giant wind up he has. I figured this game would be close, but the Jags are 3-0?
• 3:52 - The Bears are another team I stayed away from this week. That line was at 11.5 by game time. The Vikes were gonna win, but this Bears team is obviously much better than whoever is responsible for setting that line thinks.
• 3:55 - There’s a line for tonight’s game for Jerry Rice’s total receptions. It’s 2.5. With all the talk about his streak being snapped I’d be interested in that. They’re playing the Bucs, and if there’s a type of defense Rice can still catch passes in it’s this kind.

Sunday Football

Sunday, September 26th, 2004

Before Jeanne steals my power:

• I’d like to pick up Reggie Bush in my keeper league please.
• I’m gettin weary of my three NFL picks. Hank Goldberg reports Bill Parcells is 11-6 all time against Joe Gibbs and Dallas has won 12 out of 13 against the Skins.
• Also from Hank is that Tennessee has covered five straight against Jacksonville. The Saints are 12-3 ATS at St. Louis. And, something most know by now, Brett Favre has a very poor record in domes (4-15). Hank went Ten, NO, Ind, and Dallas and since he rarely, if ever, goes 4-0, maybe I shouldn’t be too worried.
• There are some players that may be surprise performers today. Andre Davis could be one considering 1)he’s facing the Giants secondary, 2)the Browns figure to be throwing a lot today, 3)Winslow’s out. I also sort of like Ron Dayne today. He really hasn’t done anything yet. And as banged up as the Bears secondary is, they’re gonna have to blitz a lot to keep the Vikings from throwing deep every down. Still, someone like Kerry Campbell has a good chance to catch a long TD pass out of the slot today. I also think Tennessee will really be throwing the ball today. Mason and Bennett and even Kinney could have nice days. Donte Stallworth should be the primary weapon versus the Rams.

UPDATE: Mort reports Ron Dayne is inactive. Suggs, Ulracher as well.

Other news, Mike McKenzie is out. Warrick Dunn will start. Eddie Kennison it out. Dante Hall will start. Travis Taylor is out. I still have power (hope, hope).

And hey how about Marcus Robinson versus his former team? Daunte likes the tall guys in the red zone. Maybe he’ll force one in to Marcus like he does to Randy all the time.

Saturday Football

Saturday, September 25th, 2004

Other than the status of the Dolphins/Steelers game changing every three hours, there really isn’t a lot going on in the National Football League that we don’t already know. What few notes there are as follows:

• Mark Brunnel is playing Monday night. I’m still picking them.
• The Browns are ‘scaling back‘ their offense now that Winslow is out. Plans to punt on second down delayed until week 4. Suggs not expected to play either.
• Michael Bennett is returning to practice and will probably play in Week 5.

I wasn’t too pleased to wake up this morning to see that Boise St. played like a high school team on Friday night, but with Arkansas controlling the second half against Bama, and Wisconsin holding a 10-0 lead against Penn State’s third string quarterback, I’m feeling a little more confident.

I am officially disappointed in ESPN’s Podolsky though. He was pretty much right on last year with the thursday and friday games, and also with some of the smaller matchups, but 2004 has not treated him well so far. He occasionally has good insights but I don’t think I’ll continue to give him the print time that I have. It’s also more than likely against some law to reproduce his picks like I am.

The Texans/Chiefs line is down to 7.5 now. I guess that’s considering Priest won’t play or that he may be limited. But watch people hammer that thing like crazy at 12:50 when they annouce that he will start. Then go Texans.

Something else that bothers me is the Saints getting 7 at St Louis. Am I missing something? 7 points is a lot. The same can be said for the Falcons giving 10 vs the Cards. Arizona sort of hung with New Enlgand on the scoreboard cause the Pats kept missing opportunities. But this Cardinals team doesn’t have any quit in them.

When’s hockey season start?

Friday’s Football

Friday, September 24th, 2004

• An important reason behind Philadelphia’s 2-0 start:

Two games into the 2004 season, the Eagles have allowed nine drives inside their own 20-yard-line, but those nine possessions have led to only 20 points - two touchdowns and two field goals.

• “Michael Vick Rules,” by Dennis Green. Yes he does, yes he does.
• Dunn upgraded to probable.
• Edge practices, might play.
• Story on the Titans struggling passing game. Hope they bring it this weekend, they’re my survivor pick.
• Is it the OLine or Rudi that’s slow to start?
• Ramsey looks better with practice. I’m still taking them Monday night.

Friday Juice

Friday, September 24th, 2004

Take advantage of the Friday specials. Things don’t change too much before game time. Except the line and if it changes for your benefit, there’s probably not a good reason.

With that out of the way, I will say that I can’t seem to wrap my head around this week’s games. I have picker’s block. But here’s what I do like:

• Boise St. vs BYU (-21.5) - I like this line at 20.5 instead. I’d buy it down if I was ever going to actually wager on it. But I agree with those that say Boise St. has something going this year. And I remember watching BYU and Duke a few weeks ago because it was on INHD. They looked boring, even in hi-def.
• Wisconsin vs PSU (-3) - Here’s another one I’d be buying down. This one I’d go to 2.5. A lot of this game will depend on how effective Badger RB Davis is (if he plays). Penn State’s LBs are always solid and they are usually tough against the run, but from what I saw last week, Wisconsin has some good options at RB after Davis. And in the end, I don’t think PSU has enough experience to break this road losing streak yet. See yesterday’s post about this.
• Arkansas vs Alabama (-5.5) - I don’t think either team will be able to control the game on the ground offensively, and so with Bama QB Croyle out for the year, I’ll take the R’backs at home.


• Bucs at Oakland (+3) - Going with another bad Florida team on the road on a Sunday night. At least the Fish covered last week. I’m thinking the Bucs will here too. I’d buy it at 3.5 and hope these two defenses keep it up. Who knows, the Bucs may even win one. Gruden strikes me as the kind of guy who gets a lot of motivation out of revenge.
• Skins vs Boys (-1) - Washington to win at home? Joe Gibbs? -1? The Sports Guy sums last weeks’ Washington/Giants game up best here by saying it’s like when you’re playing Madden and the computer does everything it can to make you lose. After a week of real practice, hopefully Ramsey will understand which color jersey he needs to throw the ball to.
• Texans at Chiefs (+9) - Obviously, Priest Holmes’ availability plays a lot into this. But I like Carr on the road, where he seems to really be allowed to throw the ball around. Is it possible that Kansas City can start the year 0-3 and 0-2 at home? Tough to say, but at +400, it’s worth a shot. If Priest ends up not playing, you’re loving it. And even if he does, +9 is easy to buy to +10.5 and almost guarantee a sure thing. Dominick Davis has a lot in common with Quentin Griffin and DeShaun Foster.

UPDATE: So, I’ve really learned something. I should just pick college night games and pro day games cause I can’t seem to get anything else right. So it shall be done.

Reason For Hope

Friday, September 24th, 2004

In case you’ve missed this story, I feel it’s important enough to repeat.

Thursday Football

Thursday, September 23rd, 2004

Everything seems so status quo today on the football side. A good thing since I’m relatively busy. Nonetheless…

• One of the reasons I picked the Bears to upset the Packers in week 2 was because of how well Green Bay played on Monday night. I read so much about how they were motivated to show everyone that they were still a good team, and that they were playing the defending conference champs, and how ready they were to play… I figured there was no way they could match that intensity against the Bears. Chicago would be a team with lots of new parts, and easy to underestimate. Turns out that’s what happened. So I started thinking, does appearing on Monday night have an affect on the following week? So I looked back to 2002 and 2003.
  
  Here’s a chart of outcomes for teams who played the week following a Monday night game.
  PMW = Previous Monday Night Winning Team. PML = Previous Monday Night Losing Team.



YEAR	PMW	PML
02	14-2	7-8
03	7-7	7-7
04	0-1	1-0
Totals	21-10	15-15


Now this raises some interesting points. First, let me just add that there should be a margin of error of +/- 2 games on account of the fact that I’ve been doing six other things while adding this up and creating the html for the table shown above. There’s also a baby singing nearby.

Second, the only real conclusion I can make about the affect playing in Monday night games has on the succeeding week’s performance is that there is none. That the MNF victors have fared well (21-10) is probably moreso because they are just good teams and will win more than they lose (how’s two out of three sound?). The MNF losers are currently hitting exactly .500 in my little experiment. It is also noteworthy to talk about the large discrepancy between the results from 02 and 03. I think, more than anything else, this is a supporting fact that playing on MNF has no predictable affect. I’ll probably keep this in the back of my mind as the 04 season plays out. Just to see what happens to this model on a 3 year table.

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